Armenia, Azerbaijan and the Fate of Nagorno Karabakh
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- Опубліковано 13 кві 2024
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A discussion in my new video series "Making Sense of the World in 2024", I address, by popular demand, the current situation between Armenia and Azerbaijan in light of Azerbaijan's capture of Nagorno Karabakh after thirty years, and the dissolution of Artsakh as a parastate.
As of now, a final negotiated settlement has yet to be concluded between Armenia and Azerbaijan including any status of Karabakh as an entity within Azerbaijan, the fate of displaced Armenians, and the possible status of Karabakh, if it will be reestablished at all.
#armenia #azerbaijan #nagornokarabakh #artsakh
07:00 - Artsakh as a "parastate"
12:25 - Background to the conflict
26:50 - Scenarios for peace agreements between Armenia and Azerbaijan
Thanks! I have been so confused by this conflict!
Thank you, Professor
Thank you, it now makes more sense to me what and why there are troubles in this area. Very helpful.
Excellent explanation. I appreciate the map visuals.
Thank you, Professor Rossi!
Thank you Sir.
Thank you for this clear explanation ❤
Thank you for your work.
Thank you for your explanation 😁
Thank you! I would be happy to hear your opinion on russian "peacekeepers" in the region, especially on their status after the armenian population left.
Could you please do the next video about upcoming US election?
Would you be interested in doing a video discussing Turkey's historical and modern approach comparing their treatment of Kurds to Armenians? What is the historical context that led to the Armenian genocide? Why didn't the same thing happen with Kurds? Why did Armenia survive as a nation state but Kurds don't have one? What is modern Turkey's policy towards Armenia and how does it differ from their suppression of Kurds?
Sure, please send me an email
Thanks for the review.
Love the fact checks on these videos UA-cam provides that we never asked for
I luv this kinds of stuff ....... geo political stuff thanks, Professor !!
Awesome, would also want to know 5 central asian countries and their things with china and russia these days
brilliant video ... i would love to hear about syria and the current state of things there !
Thank you Professor Rossi. Would it be possible in a future video to speak of the interests of Iran, Turkey, Russia, and recently India through its sale of arms to Armenia and how Russia, EU, and US are playing this, their interests and objectives. Tk you
Thanks, Professor!
very clarifying!
two Qs:
1. I remember, in recent years, some US official going to NK and swearing support. How close is the Armenian president to the US congress/state dept AND is this Putin's revenge for Armenia 'cheating on' Russia (seeking US support) ? i e did he green - light the Azerbaijan takeover?
2. Isn't there also an Israeli connection with Azerbaijan?
1.) Decently close, Endowment for Democracy is well at work here and there have been implications of funding from George Soros to Pashinyan.
2.) What I hear from Armenians is that Israel sells "prototype" weapons to Azerbaijan and that their "donations" helped arm Azerbaijan in the 2020 attack. The two countries aren't on great terms, but most countries in proximity of Israel aren't
@@brunofrance4776 ,thanks
Talk about Abhazia and South Ossetia, we have heard something about Transnistria but never the first 2.
I will express my appreciation by offering you new questions. (1) What is the history or background of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan? (2) What explains his treasonous behavior? (3) What is the process that brought him to power? (4) If a traitor gains power as a result of a set legal or political process, are people forced to accept the traitor's rule as legitimate? (5) Can people reject or revise the process "after the fact"?
This has to do with Czechoslovakia - UA-cam has contracted someone there to create cloud STORAGE, I think. That's how little UA-cam cares. Something like that sb managed in our country.
Thanks man, I love this series, please keep it going. Best wishes
19:25 Too much energy spent by Russia on brokering an agreement that wouldn't turn out good for Russia. Not only because Azerbaijan didn't honor the agreement in 2023, but also because Armenia (Pasinyan really) accused Russia wrongly. Personally, I'm 100% certain that Putin didn't "allow" or "push" Azerbaijan to do what it did in 2023 because that would mean Russia would have to withdraw its peacekeepers and lose its newfound influence on Nagorno-Karabakh's population (they had made Russian an official language), and Russia certainly didn't allow Azerbaijan to do what it did in 2020 because that war's big loser was the Russian influence on South Caucasus vs Turkey's influence. Only NATO and the EU were profiting from such a sudden instability in the South Caucasus, especially at a time when Putin was trying to decide what to do with the Donbass and Ukraine.
Pasinyan is a traitor to his people. On the other hand, looking at him next to Ursula, Borrell and Blinken, I realized he didn't consider the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh his people. He's one of those persons who have no moral compass but a wealth compass.
A comment on parastates: Kosovo isn't in the UN, yet its independence has been recognized by so many countries that it doesn't matter practically, and now it's going to participate in the EU and NATO, so indeed it all has to do with Who wanted the parastate to exist in the first place: the American Empire that controls the UN or anyone else.
I have a blogpost on Russia and will share screenshots of your comment here. Thank you.
Armenia has to be the country with the most tragic history. They cant catch a break. 🇦🇲
They sure know how to market their 'tragic' past to western audience
The Artsakh government declared independence from SSCP not from Azerbaijan by the way Azerbaijan acknowledged Artsakh not its part in 1921
Please do video about Kosovo
Azerbaijan and Armenia should have done a land exchange. Artsakh for Nakhchivan and resettle the Armenians to Nakhchivan and the Azerbaijanis into Artsakh.
To those who complain anout parades in azerbaijan. Our people have been killed, forced from their lands for 30 years. America and russia and france sent diplomats to baku for 30 years to eat kebab and tell us just accept invasion. So why are yous uprised that we celebrate victory? For us we did not defeat armenia or armenian lobby. We defeated iran, russia and France.
Armenia attacked karabakh in 1994 with military force displaced azeris whose houses ruins can still be found today. Internationally recognized as azeri territory the armenians refused to follow that. Azerbaijan retook it with the same strategy. Case closed. Now Armenians should start cooperating with azeris and turks for a better future.
The biggest problem in this conflict is that no one really wanted to resolve it. In the 1970s-80s, Armenians in NKR were asking the Azerbaijani government (run by Ilham Aliyev's father, Heidar Aliyev) for certain rights and basic infrastructure that they felt were denied them, either through lack of funds or outright discrimination. Getting ignored by the Soviet Azerbaijani government, a new movement began, the "Artsakh movement," which sought independence from Azerbaijan and unification with Armenia.
Instead of Heidar finding a compromise and pacifying that movement, which at the time was small and insignificant, he went out of his way to massacre Armenians in Sumgait. This, as one can imagine, only gave every Armenian in the world impetus to join the Artsakh movement and begin demanding secession from Soviet Azerbaijan. When Heidar responded with even more massacres against Armenians in Baku, Kirovabad, and Shahumyan, Armenians in NKR took things further and organized a referendum to separate from Azerbaijan.
Heidar still wouldn't compromise. Instead, he surrounded NKR with troops, effectively creating a blockade with the support of Soviet Russian troops, leaving Armenians in NKR with increasingly fewer resources. The same "Operation Ring" was repeated by Ilham, with the help of Russian peacekeepers, from December 2022 to September 2023. In the 1990s, however, Armenians, with nothing to lose, at one point opened fire with what little arms they had on the Azerbaijani army, opening the ring, but also triggering a full-scale war that would last until the signing of a ceasefire in 1994.
If the international community, and particularly those brokering so-called peace, since 1994, had pushed Azerbaijan to give up Nagorno-Karabakh in exchange for the 7 territories around NKR that Armenia had captured (and ethnically cleansed--let's be honest) and was using as a "buffer zone," we wouldn't be where we are today. In fact, that's sort of where the early days of negotiations were going, but as soon as big players, like British Petroleum, saw more potential in Azerbaijan, they started siding with Azerbaijan and calling for "Azerbaijan's territorial integrity." It was from that moment that Armenians knew they lost to the international community, and one corrupt government after another started to stall for time, hoping that the tide might turn one day.
Meanwhile, Azerbaijan was arming itself to the teeth and negotiating in bad faith, because both Heidar and later Ilham, were also stalling and waiting for the tide to turn--this time to attack and conquer not only the 7 territories, but all of NKR.
And now, the conflict continues, because another generation of Armenians and Azerbaijanis are growing up to hate each other, and it's only a matter of time for this to blow up again, because, once again, no one really wants this conflict to be resolved, least of all the "international community" that keeps green-lighting and fueling Ilham Aliyev.
In response to Russia's "shock" at Pashinyan recognizing Azerbaijan's territorial integrity: Russia themselves repeatedly recognized Azerbaijan's territorial integrity since the 1990s (as I mentioned above).
The reason Pashinyan did so too was because, since 2021, 1) Azerbaijan kept attacking and encroaching on Armenia's territory, with a very deadly skirmish in 2022, claiming that the borders were undefined; when Armenia appealed to the CSTO and Russia, they too said that the borders were undefined and didn't condemn Azerbaijan's attacks and encroachments on Armenia; Armenia realized that the only way for it to survive in the region was to have its borders recognized, and the only way to do that was to recognize its neighbors' borders; Pashinyan and Aliyev signed an agreement in Brussels recognizing each others territorial integrity based on the Alma-Ata agreement of 1991, when the Soviet Union dissolved; 2) Pashinyan understood very quickly that the "international community" was not going to give up its recognition of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity and that the chance of NKR being allowed to secede in this day and age was never going to happen; with no choice left (Azerbaijan constantly attacking Armenia and no one saying anything), and with no one supporting the independence of NKR, he did what he hoped would allow NKR to survive, albeit within Azerbaijan; unfortunately the "international community," including Russia, had no intentions to "save" NKR in case it got invaded by Azerbaijan, which is exactly how it went down.
As for the NKR government, Pashinyan had no say in their decisions. They chose to oust Arayik Harutyunyan (who's now in jail in Baku) and replace him with a nationalist government affiliated with the "ancient regime" in Armenia that was ousted in 2018. No one in Armenia was going to fight for NKR in September 2023. If Pashinyan had declared martial law, there would've been real riots on the streets of Yerevan (and not fake pro-Russian protests by former corrupt government members trying to get back into power).
One final note, on the so-called "Lavrov plan": the reason the Armenian leadership, including Pashinyan, disagreed with it was because it didn't see NKR as an independent state. Armenia was never going to agree to NKR being a part of Azerbaijan. That was the core of the conflict. The 7 territories would be returned, no questions asked, but NKR could not and would not be a part of Azerbaijan. And everything the Armenian side had predicted, basically came true in September 2023: if NKR is recognized as part of Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan's territorial integrity is respected, NKR will be ethnically cleansed. The Lavrov plan also had several other problems with it, once again, not intended to actually resolve the conflict, but to continue it, escalate it, and eventually have it blow up. The Russian side should be the last to be surprised by anything. That said, the American and French side (in the OSCE Minsk Group) did absolutely no better. They all failed the Armenians of NKR.
at 19:55, horrible analysis. You shouldn't have skipped 2 years of events. Pashinyan basically had to do this because Azerbaijan was attacking into Armenian territory while also making incursions into Karabakh. After Russia's disastrous invasion of Ukraine, they weren't going to defend Armenia or Karabakh to any significant degree. That is why Pashinyan felt he had to cut some sort of deal and forgo any status for Karabakh in favor of some minimum security guarantees. Russia also declined Armenia's request for CSTO intervention multiple times.
im from Azerbaijan and this is all bs. dont listen to this guy
You need to mimic Professor Gerdes channel, and do it better. You actually know what you are talking about. And the end of the war is going to be messy….help.
Good explanation, now explain the fate of urzikstan that EA butchered
This video should start by stating Artsakh/Ngorno Karabagh is indigenous to Armenian people. Armenians have lived in this territory for thousands of years. Also missed was the fact the Armenians remaining after the 2020 ceasefire had been starved to death by an illegal blockade. Another failure to mention is how the territory was taken from the Armenian people by Stalin. I’m glad I don’t use you for any real knowledge on anything. I happen to know something about this conflict so I thought I would listen to your point of view. Knowing how sloppy and incomplete you are I wont be tuning in to any else of yours.
I don't disagree with the points you've made here, and as I said at the start of the video, my goal was to offer something overarching, but by no means was what I offered exhaustive of details and information. In this, you are absolutely right that the region of Karabakh was inhabited by Armenians for centuries, and was a piece of territory that was allocated to Azerbaijan SSR. This was a pattern repeated throughout the Soviet Union in which territory that historically was considered part of one ethnic group was given to the SSR unit of another: like Tajik areas given to Uzbek SSR, Osh given to Kyrgyz SSR, and Khujand given to Tajik SSR. In this, we also need to include historical Armenian heritage in Nakhchivan that has undergone systemic removal since 1991. Another point that you raised was the plight of the ethnic Armenian community in the remnants of Karabakh after the 2020 ceasefire that depended on the Lachin Corridor serving as a lifeline with Armenia itself. Azerbaijan's official attitude towards Karabakh is like most host country attitudes: desire for the land but rejection of the people. This is something I hope to bring up more thoroughly in a video dedicated to looking at parastates as an observable whole. You are welcome to listen in if you haven't decided to turn away. I was quite clear in my video how Azerbaijani nationalism is, and has been, vehemently anti-Armenian throughout the last four decades, necessitating a need for Artsakh's composition and hoped-for support by international powers.
False information