China vs Taiwan Tensions Rising
Вставка
- Опубліковано 4 тра 2024
- Gonky and Mover discuss rising tensions between Taiwan and China, and the implications for a bigger conflict. Subscribe to @themoverandgonkyshow to watch LIVE every Monday at 8PM ET or to see full episodes of The Mover and Gonky Show. Clips will exclusively be posted there soon! Every Monday at 8PM ET, Mover (F-16, F/A-18, T-38, 737, helicopter pilot, author, cop, and wanna be race car driver) and Gonky (F/A-18, T-38, A320, dirt bike racer, author, and awesome dad) discuss everything from aviation to racing to life and anything in between.
Send your voice message for the show: podcasters.spotify.com/pod/sh...
Looking for a good book? www.cwlemoine.com
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.
Views presented are my own and do not represent the views of DoD or its Components.
I live in Taiwan, and there's a growing awareness among some Taiwanese people of the inadequacy of our preparedness and the escalating tensions. Despite the government's claims of defense readiness, limited resources allocation, uneven project investments, and suspicions of bureaucratic corruption have resulted in less-than-ideal overall effectiveness.
I can also understand the US' motives behind reducing the risk of chip manufacturing related to areas of high conflict. This is also a criticism I have regarding the current propaganda of the Taiwanese government: overly promoting TSMC as a guardian of the nation rather than viewing it as part of international cooperation.
Although my criticism of the Taiwanese government may seem negative. However, this does not equate to "leaning solely towards the CCP for the sake of peace"
Taiwan strategically occupies a vital maritime location. The intention behind shifting the semiconductor industry isn't to abandon Taiwan; it's about raisingchips. Moreover, Taiwan must bolster its defense preparedness, not to engage in an arms race, but to ensure "sustainability" and make the CCP realize that continuing aggression isn't worthwhile.
The fundamental aspect of enhancing resilience lies beyond weaponry-it's about preparedness and education. This is an area where the Taiwanese government is notably lacking. For instance, civil defense readiness is limited to knowledge passed among expatriates and community organizations. Many civilians believe that in the event of a crisis, everything can simply be left to the military to handle.
You guys first must kick out the pro-china parties in your country.
If Donbas can vote to join russia, taiwan can vote to become a separate country
@@peetky8645 Taiwan is a bit difference situation from Donbass as they actually be sovereign nation before 1970s for the sake of Taiwan defense to be fair, Taiwan itself force to either develop thing by their own or buy old or limited weapon from US (prevent China enrage) but China can continue to develop better and better weaponry whatever they want.
For TSMC tactics, I think it still work current decade as new chip factory won't get high quality chip like chip from Taiwan TSMC for years and the last autocratic states like China or Russia can be unreasonable if it can save their political survival viz invasion of Ukraine that Putin wage war to evade how sh_t he handle Russia during covid era (It's normal thing as lot of leader get oust from post from covid related reason.) , For China restore national pride like south China , Taiwan or China far east is interesting option for them in situation that CCP face lot of crisis like various economic fk up and failure in covid policy.
Deep State is in cahoots with the DPP ...to abolish the ROC 🇹🇼 on Taiwan... at the same time, to conduct Regime Change on the mainland ...in order to facilitate reestablishment of ROC 🇹🇼 on the mainland .
@@peetky8645
ROC 🇹🇼 constitution doesn't recognized nor permit succession .
Japan has said they will help defend Taiwan.Abe said it at a pacific conference. Like a month later he was murdered.
Leaders come and go.... just look at the United States. Administrations and foreign policies can change...
Not openly or directly said that way ...
Abe got killed by his fellow Nippon Jin .
This just shows that we, the West, are just too depended from foreign countries to keep our economy going. We need to bring production, or at least part of it, closer to home.
We have 19 semiconductor fabs in the process of being built in the US currently for this very reason, the current US administration has invested north of 40 billion dollars to get this done.
@@ekahab Yeah that is the plan and than Taiwan is done. None will defend it.
@@ekahab And that would be pointless even if the fans were successful - which is doubtful: about 70% of the rare earths needed for semiconductor production come from China.
@@cte4dota Defending Taiwan isn’t about chip production. Look at a map: it controls Chinas access to the sea.
@@TheGreatAmphibian I am highly skeptical of that 70% number, especially since China is in a very resource poor region, which also explains why China is so heavily invested in mining in Africa. You are right about Taiwan being in the first island chain to control Chinas access to sea lanes, because they are so heavily dependent on it for energy and resources, but there are other more vital chokepoints for Chinese sea lanes aside from Taiwan. It is just the first in a series of defensive points.
As someone who worked in the micro chip manufacturing industry, I can say this America produces the highest quality/most advanced chips on the planet. That being said we don't produce enough chips. This is because the EPA has made it impossible to produce the silicone wafers here in America through regulation. Also a problem we have in the industry here in America is even though a lot of these companies were started in America, the CEO's and upper level management believe in the "New World Order" ideas of being a multinational corporation. They have no loyalty to America, I left the industry when I asked questions about how our chips were showing up in Russian military equipment in Ukraine. Management got upset with me for bringing it up in front of the whole FAB shift at a shift stand down. The FAB I worked in would be described as a "boutique" chip FAB we made very high end chips that were used in limited numbers, we have chips in the F-22, F-35, all over the place in spacecraft. We have environmental activist who are working in regulatory agents and they have destroyed our ability to have almost any manufacturing in America.
Semper Fidelis Cmdr oohrah!
That's why US is building 2 massive ports on Batanes island between Philippines and Taiwan.
I'd be worried that if China and Taiwan formally go at it, N and S Korea would immediately follow suit as long as the Chinese and American war machines are in full effect over there.
South Korea wants war just as bad as the North does.. people like to forget that
North Korea has been recently making moves that suggests that they are closer to a war preparedness mode. But they probably would wait and see how things develop in a major power conflict before going all in.
India would also look to take the disputed territory
Vietnam and Korean War 2.0
Here we go again?
The complexity of a potential conflict between Taiwan and China, and the likely need for US boots on the ground to assist Taiwan. Here's my assessment..
A conflict between Taiwan and China would indeed be as complicated as the Vietnam War, if not more so. China's military strategy would likely involve a combination of amphibious assaults, airborne operations, and ground troops to overwhelm Taiwan's defenses. Given the geographical proximity and China's military superiority, Taiwan's coastline and beaches would be vulnerable to invasion.
Air power alone would not be sufficient to stop a Chinese invasion. The US would need to deploy ground troops to support Taiwan's military and defend against Chinese forces. This would require a significant commitment of troops, equipment, and logistical support, similar to the Vietnam War.
Furthermore, the Korean War parallels are also relevant. Just as the Korean War was fought to prevent a communist takeover of South Korea, a conflict over Taiwan would be fought to prevent China's authoritarian regime from absorbing a democratic Taiwan.
The complexity of such a conflict would be exacerbated by:
1. Urban warfare: Taiwan's population is concentrated in urban areas, making combat operations challenging and potentially bloody.
2. Asymmetric warfare: China might employ unconventional tactics, such as cyberattacks, propaganda, and sabotage, to weaken Taiwan's defenses.
3. Geopolitical tensions: The conflict would draw in regional and global powers, including Japan, South Korea, and the European Union, making it a potentially global crisis.
4. Humanitarian concerns: A conflict would put Taiwan's civilian population at risk, potentially leading to a humanitarian crisis.
In conclusion, a conflict between Taiwan and China would be a complex, multifaceted crisis, requiring a comprehensive and coordinated response from the US and other allies to support Taiwan's security and democracy. The parallels with the Vietnam War and Korean War serve as a reminder of the challenges and risks involved in such a conflict.
The only action the US will likely take is to put 5 Marine battalions on shore to act in a defensive capacity only. Anyone that pays attention will see that the Marines have been restructuring and provisioning for just such a function. They got rid of their tanks (not useful on Taiwan) and have been moving heavily to drone warfare. They have also recently been loading up on Anti-Ship missiles. The Chinese will leverage the fact that they are the largest supplier of parts, materials, and finished products to the US and a very large number of global companies. Foreign investment is falling in China as more and more, the global companies have started to realize the exposure. Apple is moving out much of its production to India and Vietnam (a country that should be worried about a future attack), and the Infrastructure act is ensuring that we can build enough chips to keep at major parts of the economy working, but Taiwan will fall before we can complete that transition, though it is likely that Auto Makers and others have been or will start keeping more inventory. In the end, the only thing likely to stop China is that its economy is doing poorly, and it would have to ask itself if the economic damage would be worth the gain, and because the economy of Taiwan is only 8 billion, vs the 18 Trillion for China, it seems that China has far more to lose than it has to gain. The leadership though does not really care that much about the hardships that economic problems cause for the population, but if the situation deteriorates much more than it is today, that very population could turn against them. (I suspect that the Taiwanese, will destroy all of the most advanced chip making machines and intellectual property (they will have backups elsewhere) rather than let them fall into China's hands. In the end, the Chinese chip companies will wind up in the states, because that is the only place they will feel safe.
I went a little bit down that rabbit hole some time back. Some things didn't really make sense. This might be stuff you already know but isn't commonly understood in the US, so for others:
We were helping China fight Japan in WWII. Then we end up as economic adversaries some time later. They didn't really cover how that came about when I went to high school. Post-WWII the US backed the RoC hoping to support a dictatorship/one-party state to stave off the communists. The US did a lot of that from WWII through the next few decades. The CCP won, pushing the RoC to Taiwan and pitting the CCP against the US for supporting the RoC. Things got ugly in China for a while and I'm sure a lot of blame was placed on anyone but the CCP. I can't remember the specifics, but North Korea started having a beef with the CCP as well, which is why there is still animosity between them today. Anyway, part of the reason China wants Taiwan is to sort of stamp out that last remnant of that conflict (completing the communist revolution?), prove their system won, unite China (which is always a big cultural motive there), and distract its citizens from some other aspects of one party rule. Xi would have been steeped in a lot of that when he was a little boy. So there are some long shadows of cultural factors involved as well.
The more dire the situation in China, the more likely they would take the economic hit anyway in order to boost nationalism. If losing Taiwan's manufacturing wasn't that big of a hit anymore, other countries might not be as interested in getting a bloody nose for China taking full control. Definitely dicey..
PRC semiconductor chips makers will stay in the PRC ... disregarding the DPP agenda for separatism .
Lost of jobs in ROC 🇹🇼 semiconductor industry will have make them to go abroad ... while foreign employees will return home to their country .
Taiwan's GDP is 800 billion vs. China's 18 trillion.
Doesn’t matter which side win, still poor people suffer
In general you need 3:1 advantage to attack successfully, and China has that. Even if attacks with beach landings require even more of an advantage China has that. China can also choose the timing, how they attack, etc.
It'll take months to respond to China's attack properly, by which time China will be entrenched and has the defensive position. Even if its attack is still ongoing as you said: The general area is China's home turf: they have defensive positions essentially on their own soil from which they can defend against any responses into that region. Ergo they still have a huge numbers advantage, while essentially we'd need to have that 3:1 advantage!
The PLA is very poorly equipped and trained so that 3:1 number wouldn't be sufficient. I think you're forgetting that America has designed it's military to be be able to send a major expeditionary force anywhere in the world within 24 hours. Also, remember how good American intel is. The US government predicted the invasion of Ukraine in advance of it occurring. If the communists attacked Taiwan then America would likely have a large force in the area around or even before the PLA began their assault. If China attacked Taiwan then their navy would be obliterated by the US, leaving any troops that invaded Taiwan cut off
@@Endwankery I am sorry but the US will lose in a war with China over Taiwan. China will block off entry into the South China sea and obliterate the US navy from land launched hypersonic missiles. China's huge submarine fleet will sink the logistical ships coming into the area. In 2017 the Pentagon ran several sims in a China vs the US war over Taiwan and China won all the simulations.
We missed a great opportunity building up manufacturing in the Americas. Greedy companies have and continue to move too much out of America.
Greedy? Trying to return more money back to the investors so more investors will invest is not greed...it is staying relevant and afloat. Basic economics.
Besides, the rare earth conductors needed for computer chips come from China in the first place. So chip manufacturing (which is being moved here, btw,) is still dependant on getting rare earth materials from China. We physically do not have them here.
@@ironnads7975China is not the only place on Earth with those raw materials.
I was in Guilin China recently, they had fighter jets flying all hours from the local airbase.Locals said its unusual. Assuming they are preparing.
The big problem with China invading Taiwan is China will also lose the chip manufacturing they need for 5nm and smaller chips. A war for Taiwan will destroy all of that. In the mean time, the US began building new chip fab plants in the US several years ago. Some of them are slated to come online this year and more in 2025. So, for the US and microchip supplies, we'll probably be ok (though chips will be a bit more expensive). You'd think the CCP would recognize this, and keep it to sabre rattling. But it wouldn't be the first time a communist government sacrifices their own prosperity to make a political point. 😞
Still have to get the rare earth materials from China for chip manufacturing
Xi's reign is his top concern, prosperity doesn't mean anything if his authority gets shaken. He's broken enough traditions in the CCP circle to deserve a stab in the back when he steps down and he has to do anything to remain in charge for as long as he can. With no true election, no monarchy, no divine right to back the legitimacy of their reign, CCP heavily depends on economic growth to keep the people happy. Apart from that, enough Chinese mainlanders have been brainwashed for decades to respect whoever is able to "reclaim" Taiwan. If the local economy keeps on deteriorating and more people start having problems putting food on the table, it's reasonable to think invading Taiwan would be a desparate act for Xi to retain his authority and probably regain some support from the local nationalists.
@@ironnads7975 True. China is the cheapest source for rare earth, but not the only source. Like I said, chips will get a bit more expensive, but they won't become unavailable.
Canada, Belgium, Germany and Japan can produce germanium, Japan South Korea and, suprise suprise, Ukraine can produce gallium which are the biggest rare earth concerns for chip making. While China is the largest producer they arent the only producer, there are also substitute material options. The other challenge is runninh the facilites for chip manufacturing effectively which will not happen in the event of a takeover for quite some time. China is in a tricky spot, and yes so are we all be it a slight strategic advantage for us in terms of production.
PRC 🇨🇳 will have enough semiconductor chips on it's own .
No DPP declaration of "independence" equals no invasion by CPC .
As an American I recognize that the U.S. currently depends on products from Taiwan "but" ... how is a China vs Taiwan war something we should get involved in other than the obvious self interest? If the Civil War in the U.S. ended but Alabama (or some other southern state) broke off and governed itself since the end of the war and then the U.S. finally decided to reabsorb it again I'm pretty sure the U.S. wouldn't want China (or any other country) taking Alabama's side. It's not our business. China and Taiwan are two pieces of the same country. We shouldn't have anything to do with how they resolve things.
They were two pieces of the same country. It still doesn't make any sense for China to Invade. Taiwan doesn't wants the CCP.
A little off-topic but there never was a chip shortage. Car manufacturers cancelled orders for chips then went to the back of the queue when they re-ordered the chips they always needed. It was a failure of management not of supply chains.
Dont know if you know but there is still effects felt due to the shortage.
chip manufacturers stopped producing completely during covid lockdowns and meanwhile demand went up big time as people bought more electronics because they were bored.
Certain fairly common components are still hard to get a hold of and have weeks to months of lead time.
It's getting better but it's still not at the level it was.
Highly doubt the US would stick around to defend Taiwan long term.
😌🌏 Until we invent that warp drive thing? We all have to start learning how to get along with each other on this little blue Speck. This brother versus brother fight has been brewing for decades. Much like the conflict on the 38th parallel. And the ever present arms race is just amping up the day when someone is just going to push the wrong button. Anyone remember the Film, "The Bedford Incident?" I can see the same kind of scenario in the region for real.....😢
We can give our opinion and bash either side all we want, we can give history lessons, talk about both sides tech and economy. But lets be serious here and do some serious thinking: Those who served and have family that serving or served understand this well.
No matter the which sides has the tech, naval, airpower or upper hand.
The main questions that always comes up and that needs to be answer: The Chinese are willing to lose/sacrifice a millions soldiers for Taiwan and the pacific. How many servicemen are the U.S willing to lose? If its the same amount or half...then U.S will defiantly win. Can the U.S populations stomach and mentally take-in half a million body bags coming back home or missing in the Pacific.
Positive outcomes and negative consequences needs to be weighed.
I know the us us setting up micro chip factory's in the us there building one 30 minutes from where I live the place is huge
Man, and I thought funding 2 separate conflicts was going to be too much.
It's still less than what we've spent over 20 years in the Middle East. That's the crazy part
War is diplomacy by other means.
"Aggressive negotiations"
@@wscrivner I like that one.
China's military strategy has always been to overwhelm the US Navy with missiles. I read this four decades ago. You are simply discussing the use of a new weapon. Meanwhile, KNOWING China's Economic and Military Strategy, that they have always been open about, we still allowed ourselves to become dependent on China Manufacturing, Inc. knowing we are paying to build their military. Meanwhile, as always, American Politicians put Politics over Protecting People.
Another big danger to Taiwan is the cyber army. A large number of cyber troops have occupied most of Taiwan’s forums.
The presence of the cyber army has slowly divided Taiwanese unity and real news.
I believe that the cyber army has made many countries aware of this problem.
Correction required in title : 'Tensions are being raised'
No.
Teacher you forgot to give us the homework!
You really have no clue do you?
It's escalating all on its own …
If you wanna call it that you totally need to add "by Xina", because Winnie totally does.
time to put and move production to Africa where all resources come from but the problem is a developed Africa is problematic to the balance of power and the status quo of capitalism...
The disconnect these guys aren't seeing is that the events currently ongoing in Europe, standing up to an invading power trying to yank land, directly affect Chinese perceptions on what reactions towards a land grab in their neighborhood will be. This channel being, effectively, wishy washy on the issue or sovereignty in Europe, and the issue of Taiwans sovereignty being threatened down the line, is a glaring blind spot in a usually otherwise good channel. If the US wants to dissuade a war in Asia, it should make it clear in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine that it WILL stand strong against aggressive, land expansionist powers in the coming years,
The US did not do that in the case of Ukraine, and it won't do it in the case with China. The reasons are slightly different, but the fat lady in this case is the fact that China (like Russia) has a very large stockpile of nuclear weapons, and the big fear in a direct military intervention is that they will use them. Also, the economy of the world would suffer badly if there was a major military confrontation. A larger war would close down commercial shipping for the duration, and if we thought the supply chain was a problem during covid, it would be a much more severe problem it the case of a large scale military confrontation between the west and China. Taiwan is not worth it, and Taiwan is fundamentally different than Ukraine in that it does not neighbor anything. Ukraine borders up against several other countries, and the logistics of going from one country to another by road are far less demanding than making war across the ocean. Japan learned that. It is easy to be powerful close to home and the farther you go, the harder it gets. Vietnam should be worried.
@@shenmisheshou7002 To be absolutely clear, you're talking about the logistics of war in the Pacific region, and how the reality of such a conflict would be utterly disastrous for both parties involved. But the thing is that the war in Ukraine directly shows that states like Russia, and China, don't seem to care about the long term business and economical ramifications of the situation, and will attempt to do anything to adapt to these stresses, if they believe that said military conquest is bound to stick in the long run. Russia, no matter the outcome of the war in Ukraine, will have lost the majority of the European gas market for a generation or more. This, by itself, is a disastrous reality to face post war, because India and China are already willing to take anything left in the Russian market at a steep discount because they know they're Russia's long term only option. The actions which produced this scenario, are nonsensical, and go against all sensible far looking economic plans, and sensible logistics for a quick, low cost war in the realm of actual warfighting in Ukraine. Again, Russia was willing to act like this, and we should assume China will, against all sensible reason. Because it should be very well assumed that dictators, like Xi and Putin, don't care about the reasoning: just so long as they think they can get away with it in the long run.
@@shenmisheshou7002 I do agree that Vietnam should also be worried, but to say that China, who is actively in the process of ramping up its naval power in a manner not all so dissimilar to Imperial Germany's naval expansion in the run up to WW1, is just not at all willing to reach out across the strait, in spite of all sensible economic and logistical policy, to try and yank Taiwan because they think they can get away with it in the long run, is a dangerous assumption. Especially when the Chinese leader himself, has said time and time again, that he is willing to do so.
If Donbas can vote to join russia, taiwan can vote to become a separate country
@@peetky8645 China would vehemently disagree. As even recognizes all the territory occupied by Russia as Ukrainian sovereign soil. Which just so happens to go against their states claims on Taiwan.
Why is it if you eat Chinese food your hungry again in 15 minutes?
First of all historically speaking, no, Taiwan was not always part of China. I think they got invaded in the 16th or 17th century. China is ramping up military production though with a new aircraft carrier just deployed. Obviously this is not just to look at it and say that's a pretty boat, it is to be used in the future.
You are correct just like the Puerto Rico and Hawaii was never part of the US until the end of the 19th century.
Taiwan is already part of China when the native Americans still haven’t seen a single pale face.
If Donbas can vote to join russia, taiwan can vote to become a separate country
I am a 75 year old US vet.
How about doing a macro strategic analysis for the entire area, all of China's enemies, and all of Taiwan's allies?
Most of the nations around China are enemies and Taiwan has at least Japan, India, Philippines, and Vietnam as allies.
China has 2 million troops plus reserves and they are spread everywhere between China west to South America. Taiwan can field 2 million with reserves and they are all concentrated in Taiwan.
Do a full strategic analysis and not these simplistic things the media always do. Look at everything, including that most of China's weapons suck and don't even work. Half of her tanks don't run, most of her ships are small, she has only 3 carriers, of which two are ramp carriers and the only one with a catapult stays in port because it has a lot of problems, her ICBMs use water for fuel, her stealth planes are not very stealthy as are also her subs, and her missile guidance systems are worse than the Soviet Unions were (you know, they have missed targets by as much as 100 miles). She doesn't even have enough troop ships to carry all of the troops she will need to invade Taiwan plus she has to cross 100 miles of open sea.
Suddenly, it is not a one sided fight.
I would back channel US support for china laying claim to manchuria and russian siberia in exchange for renunciation of SCS and taiwan claims. The resources on land and in the arctic sea would dwarf anything in the scs and the shipping access of a warmed arctic would be huge.
If Taiwan becomes China then we’ll just have to move chip manufacturing back to the US.
Chip manufacturing is being moved back to the US. That was started years ago. You still have to get rare earth materials from China because they are not physically here.
You should really research before commenting.
This channel is too biased to give truth. I’m celebrating the censorship bcse I love unbiased truth even when it hurts
We are not a news channel. It’s our personal opinions. Of course there’s bias. But there’s nothing untruthful.
As quote from Obi wan’s master from Star Wars Episode I “ the ability to speak does not make you intelligent” appreciate the info as always Mover.
This isn't a news channel jack@$$....they are giving their opinions.
If there was huge bias on this channel then you would be able to point out that bias and then back those precise accusations with argumentation. But since you can't do that you are clearly wrong.
@@CWLemoine🤷🏽♂️"Can't we all just get along?" -Rodney King.