I predict this channel is gonna really blow up during the Switch 2 era. The fact that you make so many high quality videos of such varying topics during the Switch's driest year gets me excited to see what you'll put out once we get back to a consistent Nintendo new cycle. There's gonna be a larger hunger for Nintendo videos once the Switch 2 comes out and this channel seems the most poised to ride that wave.
I really respect your ethos and authenticity. I’ve never seen a channel peer review themselves before. it’s genuinely refreshing. I’ve been watching since March and this has been my favorite youtube channel. I find your forecast percentages to be the most fun part after listening to your deep dive of research. Not only is it a perfect way to summarize your confidence on a specific topic but I find the forecast to be highly memorable when watching a Nintendo direct. I’ll think to myself “Oh wow it did release!” or “Wow we were close on that one!”. I can’t speak for the whole community but I wanted to highlight that some of us feel as if we’re on the same team, making these forecasts with you. This makes it very exciting when following official news and watching directs. Anyways keep up the good work
The new pfp made me think this was another channel doing a debunking of Nintendo forecast type of video lmaoo Liking the rebrand! I Thought one might've come with switch 2, didn't expect to see it prior to an announcement :)
Honestly, the forecast percentages are the reason I subscribed to you and have been watching faithfully since your last prediction evaluation of last year! I think your percentage system forces your to be very deliberate and creative with what videos you put out and what you speculate on, which is extremely refreshing. It’s very fun to watch you keep yourself accountable in that way. Keep it up!!
Thanks for sticking around! Yeah, if there's a big demand for the numbers I'm more than happy to reinstate them. I still don't think I have it quite right in terms of a language that conveys what I mean to regular viewers but isn't alienating to some people. I'll keep thinking it through (and suggestions welcome!).
@nintendoforecast I just think there's a lot of people (not including me) that see numbers and are irrationally spooked like math is some scary monster looking to snatch them out from under their bed. If I'm thinking of a compromise, maybe what you could do is use the natural language throughout the main body of the video, but at the end of it, make some definitive statements that put all of the numbers all in one place, so if there's anyone who's spooked by them can still enjoy the bulk of your work.
Could work but YT's algorithm massively rewards sequential viewing so I'd be cautious about confusing new viewers right before I recommend them a video. Maybe in the description? Hmm.
@nintendoforecast in the description, you may put a legend that explain what the words means, example, like means 70%, very likely mean 90%, theres even chance 50%, etc
@nintendoforecast I personally like the numbers quite a bit myself, so I think that putting the numbers in the description sounds like a great idea! That way new viewers won't be alienated, but viewers like me can still have our specific numbers for our forecasts. As a side note, it's nice to see just how accurate your forecasts are! Thank you for all of the hard work that you put into making them!
I’ve been subbed since last march and every forecast video has been relatively accurate and also grounded in its speculation. Every other video has been insightful or just plain entertaining. You have something special here with this channel!
Dude, I'm not gonna lie. I didn't think you would get so close. Fantastic job and Fantastic channel. Don't listen to the haters. Your videos are the most fact based Nintendo videos I have seen
Honestly one of the best qualities of this channel is that basically every video is subtitled, helps a lot when you cant hear audio but still can enjoy the content
Thanks. As I mentioned in another response, if ever a video isn't subbed it's because of YT being fussy and usually if you check alternative tracks (e.g. English UK) you should be able to find the subbed one. Occasionally I go off-script and forget to type it up but hopefully it's 99% on point.
Yes! The subtitles seem to be of old scripts or something, since there are usually a couple inconsistencies between what is actually being said, but it's really nice
The percentages are a defining characteristic of your content for me, not really because of the percentages themselves, but because I feel they represent the unique, fact based, and well researched approach you bring to every video of yours. *There are two main reasons I’d suggest continuing with the percentages:* *1.* _Percentages highlight to new viewers why your channel is one of a kind, representing and hinting at the massive amounts of information and work you put into making sure what you say is as reliable and as informed as possible._ *2.* _It is a clear audio signal for viewers to know exactly when you are making one of your signature forecasts_ It's what grabbed my attention most when I first started watching your videos because it contrasted greatly with the very nebulous and vague statements many other UA-camrs tend to make. Your self assessment videos like this one where you go over every prediction and hold yourself accountable really exemplifies just how different, and valuable your content is. If I never heard your percentage based forecasts, I’m not sure I’d fully understand the focus on improvement and level of self accountability you hold yourself too. *I understand that having to explain what the percentages mean in every video or risk confusing new viewers is a very valid concern,* but honestly *it was that bit of confusion when I first started watching your content that made me more invested in figuring out what you had to say.* It's important I clarify my curiosity never overshadowed the main research and content of your videos, but I was asking questions like _“What do these percentages mean?_ and _"How reliable are they?”_ I then quickly stumbled upon your other video like this one, and watching you break down your accuracy is what completely sold me on your channel. *When I recommended your videos* to my mother, the first thing I brought up was your percentages, and how they represented the thorough research you do, and how much you strive to put out the best work you can. A youtuber making predictions while holding themselves to the standard that you do is incredible, and I feel anything (like the percentages) that brings attention to just how much work and effort you put into making your forecasts as informed as possible should definitely *stay!* *I’d say it’s **_Very Likely (90%)_** you would most benefit by finding a way to mention percentages in at least a majority of your videos,* especially if they focus on making predictions. I do think some videos benefit from percentages more than others, and that having them in the captions is a nice compromise, I just personally prefer that not be the case most of the time. Sorry this was a longer comment than I thought it would be! Either way, I know you’ll figure out a solution that ticks all your boxes, best of luck!
I've been waiting for this video since the first time I saw one of your predictions. I was very curious, and I'm happy to see that you are indeed surprisingly accurate. Congratulations, and keep up the great forecasting work!
Really enjoy your channel. "Very likely" sounds really close to "fairly likely" so maybe just go with "very likely" for 90/10 and "likely" for 70/30. Helps me know where I can put the forecast on my bingo card (lol). Keep up the good work.
It’s impressive to see how close your forecasts got to the target percentages in every case- really goes to show how excellent the research and just base judgement for this channel is. Having fun, outlandish prediction channels is great, I have a few people I watch that go into the speculation scene more just guns blazing, and I’m personally someone who plays things too safe to make high risk bets or predictions most times, so I really appreciate having a channel I follow that’s a nice middle ground of making well informed, reasonable predictions, but can throw a mad one out every so often.
I never recall your predictions personally as I just enjoy resonating or being clued up with your informed perspective and imagination. A summary screen of predictions at the end of your videos might be fun, assuming someone doesn't weaponise the visual for some petty reason if a bunch end up wrong.
I mean this in a very nice way - I couldn't really care less if the forecasts end up being accurate or not! This channel has an incredibly cozy vibe to me, there's a lovely sense of minimalism with the videos themselves, which contrasts wonderfully with the very considered, intelligent analysis work. Whether or not that analysis and research ultimately results in the forecasts being "correct" or not is secondary in my view, the experience of being guided through them is always worth it more than enough! You're clearly not trying to "gain" anything from these in the same way pompous leakers often are, you're very upfront about these things ultimately being nothing more than educated guesses. You come to some fascinating conclusions, and look at things from perspectives I never would've considered. You're calm, respectful, and always seem incredibly open-minded, never once coming across obnoxious or "above others" due to your... frankly far better analytical skills, compared to most in this space. TLDR; I think this channel offers a lot more than just its' accuracy rating - some idea of what may be coming next for Nintendo IS an incentive to watch, sure, but I come here for YOU Mr. Nintendo Forecast Man!! Your specific viewpoint and your specific way of presenting that viewpoint are the reasons I'm subscribed! I can't speak for everyone of course but personally speaking, please keep doing what you're doing! It's always an incredibly pleasant time whenever you drop a new forecast! ^^
Have to say this is my favorite YT channel I discovered over the last 12 months. You are doing a banger of a job both on your predictions and on your research. Thank you Forecast, and keep up the great work!
This channel has quickly become one of my favorites on this site. Ever since I saw the Forever Entertainment video, I knew that this channel was quality. Mostly facts and logic used, not nonstop rumors. Keep it up man, you’re works are one of the best, and your developer deep dives are always something I look forward too.
UA-cam is a bit annoying with this. It's easier if the video is uploaded a few hours in advance and then I can overwrite their custom tracks but otherwise it will often default to theirs. There should usually be a custom track though - it'll be listed as "English (UK)" or similar if it's not what automatically comes up.
Switch 1 era spawned a lot of new nintendo youtubers that have stuck around and at the beginning had a little golden era. I knew switch 2 might do something similar but i didnt realize what was missing was such a in depth analytical channel. Keep being awesome bro. You are pretty much the only youtuber i watch now. That and Arlo but Arlo says weird things sometimes lol
Definitely the most detailed and realistic channel on Nintendo news that I’ve seen. I love other channels like Nintendo Life but you definitely take it to a different level. Keep it up!
Legit one of the few content creators, and the only one in the video game speculation/prediction space, who would go out of their way to hold themselves to the things they said. This is why I keep watching, you're running a quality show here, dude.
I love the accountability aspect of this channel. It's better analysis than many paid analysts. Thanks for what you do with this channel, hope you'll continue long into the future
i had commented on an earlier video that i miss the percentages, but your rational for more natural language makes a lot more sense to me now. great video and im impressed how accurate your forecasts were to the percentages! excited for new forecasts in 2025 especially with the swtich 2 coming :]
3:25 I don't know if you were thinking about me specifically, but I did tell you that the gigaleak contradicted something more than once. Regardless, it does feel cool to be referenced in a actual video (in a way at least)
Incredible forecasts! Love your content. I look forward to what you create in 2025. If you keep these odds consistent I have a feeling you’ll gain significant notoriety in the community and your forecasts much more shared.
It's really cool that you reviewed your own forecast. Crazy, how accurate you where! 😊 I never minded the numbers, but I'll understand the changes. Keep up the good work!
The quality and quantity of videos on this channel is insane. Prominent news outlets don’t do as much research as this guy, let alone any other UA-cam channel.
I’ve enjoyed the mix of research and forecasting your videos have, and I think it’s totally reasonable to have both combined as long as it’s clear which is which. Even when I vehemently disagree with your forecasts (though I think your record is generally pretty good), I still find value in hearing about the topics covered/researched.
À bit of a long comment, but from the first video I watched it became a respected channel for me. Now the things have changed a bit, for the better. This is one of my beloved channels! I know that I'll watch a video from a person with great reasoning, amazing writing and recording skills and almost unmatched research. A person who's taking so serious of what they are doing that will double check themselves, make large-scale retrospective analysis on their own Forcasts and is taking the time to read the comments so they can correct themselves if something wasn't clear enough. I really hope many more people will find this channel cause it deserves it❤
@ Of course! And thank you, hearing their insight on how Nintendo thinks during times like these where most of us are head-scratching is always so useful. The idea of Nintendo willing to “risk” the leaks is an interesting one.
The percentages are just the fun gimmick. Some people just get crazy over nothing. Like people who treat game reviews scores like it's a math test. "10/10 yet you say the game isn't perfect? That doesn't make sense!" - A crazy person. Only games get those people. Not books or movies. It's crazy.
Some people see numbers/percentages and get irrationally spooked and think Math is about to strike when they're not expecting it, and some may even get the fight/flight response to it. Weird, I know.
@@alphamarigi It's not about the media being perfect! It's never been! It's only about "giving something the highest possible recommendation". It's been that way even since 5 star reviews were created! "I can't possibly recommend this game enough, so it's a 10/10, despite any flaws I may find with it, it's worth it." Otherwise every 5 star movie is dubious because "no movie is perfect."
Just wanted to say that I love your speculation and system you have for evaluating how likely it is. Your channel is far more intelligent and measured than almost any other when it comes to Nintendo. Thank you!
oh i've been noticing you putting the percentages in the captions instead of on screen, that's a good compromise for viewers with no context while keeping the numbers up for nerds like me
A great example of research based strategic forecasting. Keep up the good work. Some of us are geeks on the methodology. Would be interesting to know what theories and models you use.
I actually prefer the 10/30/50/70/90. I agree that these changes will be easier to follow. Either way looking forward to seeing the future of the video!
Gotta say I personally will miss the percentages as the novelty of a UA-camr holding themselves accountable is great, but I understand the reasoning so won’t cry about it too much! Well done on your accuracy, very impressive, will be looking forward to the next years videos! I forecast an unlikely Advance Wars love letter/review before 2026 😁
May main concern with the shift to natural language is I've often listened to your videos in the background, so I've used those percentages as audio cues that a Forecast is happening, as opposed to just random pondering in the moment. Now with the more natural language, I'm concerned I won't be able to reliable use the Very Likely etc statements as flags for a Forecast, and would have to look at the phone to see if the percentage came up on the screen. Just my 2 cents.
Yes, this is my big concern with it. I really want a way of phrasing it that conveys to regular viewers what's happening without needing explanation each time. I haven't really figured out an option that works (although suggestions very welcome). What may happen is that on forecast-heavy videos I explain and use percentages but on videos that are just research based and I just drop observations on the side I don't.
Nintendo "percent" Forecast is my channel discovery of last year and surely i'll follow your discussions along switch 2 lifecycle, keep up the work and good luck
I noticed in your newer videos that you stopped to reference percentage predictions. I was concerned you had stopped doing these predictions because I love this portion of your content. I’m very pleased to hear that you are still doing predictions and I love the revision to group 90/10 and 70/30. So far your “natural language” strategy seems to be working great. As a long time viewer I recognize when you are making a prediction without you saying the number specifically.
Yes, I'm still looking for a phraseology that is distinctive enough to be transparent to long-term viewers but not distracting each time. Glad you're enjoying this aspect of the channel!
Good call on the reduced number of bins and therefore larger sample sizes going forward. And good job on the accounting of calibrations too! We need more statistical literacy in the world!
The only problem I have is with your spelling of "favorite" 😝 Keep going! Most logical justification provided for any Ninterest channel I know. Right or wrong, no one else has been as thoughtful, in my honest opinion. Certainly my favourite channel out here.
Ha! You know, if you check the original video I think it's spelt the American way so the one I used here must be a variant I made. I generally do use US spellings for thumbs and titles but UK spellings for captions. Thanks for your support as ever!
I will say, I personally appreciate your insights regardless of the percentages you put on things. I understand their use for accountability purposes, but it isn't the primary reason I stick around. I'm looking forward to more of your videos while Nintendo seems to be expanding their business as aggressively as it is!
What if I told you that your reviews are my favorite parts of the channel? Maybe they’re even my favorite videos, because they present just how serious you are with the other videos. :3
I've been very impressed with your ability to make engaging scripts with strong educated guesses. With the lowkey editing style like yours, with b-roll with relevant pictures, I feel like it'd be so easy to drone on unscripted, but no. I like the new logo, but I miss the sun.
I appreciate these videos so don't take this as a complaint but I think that it might be beneficial to split your forecasts into short and long term. "I think x will have an 60% likely to occur by end of 2025 with 90% likelihood by 2027" or something like that. Or even a declaration of all the things you think are 50% or greater likelihood to happen this year. Perhaps you've done this but I think reiterating your exact predictions for a given year, especially the current one, helps to keep it in audience's minds.
Good point. Most of them do have either a time limit (within 2 years of the S2 release, by the end of 2027) or a natural limit (e.g. by the end of Switch's life, when the next game releases). Also, the nature of Nintendo stuff is that you can't necessarily tell what's short term and long term. A new Mario Kart forecast seems like it would be short term but if it's not released until 2026 it would be long term. The thing is though, the forecasts are a snapshot of my judgment at a particular point in time. A lot of them remain true over time (e.g. a Famicom Detective Club in 2027 seems a good bet to me) but some change as I learn more or new things come out. If I reposted them I'd probably want to tweak and that would mean a new forecast.
Good tidying up, but I do think that separating positive predictions (probably will happen) from negative predictions (probably won't happen) would be prudent, because frankly, it's a lot easier to forecast the negatives than the positives. E.g., it's easier to say it won't snow on a given day than it will, because snow is less frequent than no snow. You have a billion potential correct targets for what the Switch 2 gimmick won't be, and only a handful of correct targets for what it will be. So if you're lumping all the negative predictions in with the positive predictions, you're obfuscating the accuracy of predictions people actually are most interested in: the positive predictions.
Yeah, that's a good point. Also should be fairly easy as going with the "natural language" approach it's far easier to say "likely" (i.e. 70%) than 70:30. Hmm.
It's for members but not paid. But it's a good point, I think I can make them public access without people having to sign up to Patreon. I'll have a look later this week (trying to work on a new video at the mo!)
I don't care if it was a mad idea then or now. Mad is a point of view. Nintendo Forecast uses in-depth research to make predictions - everyone else just picks things out of the air as they want whether it actually makes sense or not. They want such-and-such a game at Switch 2 launch and they're convinced they're going to get it even when simple research says its unlikely. Who is the mad one here? I also don't care when you are wrong. It wouldn't be any fun if Nintendo's plans could be so accurately predicted. Part of the fun is being surprised by what Nintendo does (or doesn't do.) Your percentage bands give a great sense of confidence though and you're hitting these bands at such a high accuracy that I consider them reliable predictions. One thing I did notice is some hedging of bets by predicting multiple exclusive outcomes for the same result. I.e. 50% Oiwa directing EoW, 30% Yamada, 30% someone else, 10% Takada - well one of these is going to be right and three of them wrong. I don't mind this for forecasting, but if you're going to analyze the forecast results in this manner, perhaps they should not count as 1 full point in each category, but a quarter of a point. In this manner, 50% band was 13 correct out of 28.25 forecasts or 46% (up from 44.82%), 30% band was 12.25 out of 35.5 forecasts or 34.5% (down from 36.11%), and 10% band was 3 out of 35.25 or 8.51% (up from 8.33%) - in all three cases you were actually a bit closer to your intended mid-band mark when you account for this fact. Probably a few more topics have mutually exclusive forecasts where a similar partial point could be considered, but I'm just using the EoW director thing as an example as I saw it scroll past several times during the video.
Thank you! It's a good point about 'hedging' and it's something I do consider. Of course it would be easy to do this with the 50% band by simply forecasting each way so I'm cautious to never do that (hence my 50% accuracy being the furthest off!!) but saying option A is 10%, option B is 50%, option C is 10% and option D is 30% feels like a meaningful differentiation. Plus, if I'm adding to 100% it should cover all options (of course sometimes it's a bit more as the options overlap). These are actually really tricky to do as the bands can lead to a kind of artificial limitation which occasionally I get round by stacked forecasts which lead to implied percentages (e.g. 50% chance of a Direct general or mini, 30% chance of a General Direct is a 20% implied chance of a Direct Mini).
I enjoy this channel very much. No other Nintendo channels focus on this behind the scenes stuff. Im just surprised you're British, as far as I know Europeans tend to dislike Nintendo for some reason
As accurate as me saying that a new Starfox game is close, and that four amiibos will be launched with the next Mario game this year. So yes, very accurate
Impressive track record! I think there's value in keeping the 90/10s and 70/30s separate. Of course it's mathematically equivalent to give a 10% chance of something happening and a 90% chance of it not, but from a forecasting perspective I think there's lots of room for variability between the two scenarios in practise; it's perfectly reasonable to imagine a world where there is an asymmetry/bias between predicting how likely a likely event is vs how unlikely an unlikely event is, because the nature of what's being assessed is pretty fundamentally different. I can definitely see why you'd want to make the change to increase the sample size, but I think from a forecasting/accountability perspective it unintentionally muddies the waters a bit. Great change though I think to make the predictions more explicitly qualitative over quantitiative though; I think it's the best of both worlds to use qualitative language to not put people off and not give a false impression of inflated self-confidence, whilst also having regular viewers know what's really meant by it. I commented a while back how I was originally put off by the numbers just because I thought it was a bit silly to prescribe precise odds to speculation and guessework however well-informed, but when I realised that you were actually talking in terms of buckets instead of precise probabilities it made way more sense. Realising that 90% doesn't *really* mean 90% precisely, but just that the chance varies on a case-by-case basis between 80% and 100% and on average the events in that bucket will be close to 90%, I went from dismissing the channel as a bit silly to actively appreciating what it's trying to do. To be fair though I'm reasonably well-versed in numbers and statistics so probably for most people it wouldn't be much of an issue. I'm glad to see how you've improved with this already and how you're continuing to improve. This channel is easily the most informative, well thought out, and interesting channels about Nintendo I've come across. It's great work.
Interesting thoughts - thank you. I kind of realised afterwards that the natural language approach is at odds with merging the forecasts anyway so I could conceivably still assess both. But I do now try to look at things from both the 90 and the 10 perspective both.
![Lp. Сердце Вселенной #60 РОЖДЕНИЕ ЛОЛОЛОШКИ [Финал] • Майнкрафт](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/YoR0pAV9FVQ/mqdefault.jpg)
New profile pic looks great
Many thanks to an anonymous viewer for contributing!
Brought surprise and delight
Nothing but blue skies from now on..
@@bluestitchgaming I'd say it's VERY LIKELY (90%) that the new brand image will attract new subscribers to the channel
Thought this was another channel calling Nintendo Forecast out 😭😭
The new profile picture caught me off guard lol
Courtesy of an anonymous kind viewer!
Yes. Was upset for a split second til I realized. Lol
Yeah I thought it was someone else scrutinising how good how favourite forecaster is
It scared me for a sec
The tone of these videos is always so funny to me. I can’t help but picture you putting on a little suit before you start recording.
Bro is his own peer review.
he's both the obama giving medal to obama meme and the guy pointing a gun at himself meme
Obama pointing a gun at himself
I predict this channel is gonna really blow up during the Switch 2 era. The fact that you make so many high quality videos of such varying topics during the Switch's driest year gets me excited to see what you'll put out once we get back to a consistent Nintendo new cycle. There's gonna be a larger hunger for Nintendo videos once the Switch 2 comes out and this channel seems the most poised to ride that wave.
i’d put it at a 70% likelihood 😼
I really respect your ethos and authenticity. I’ve never seen a channel peer review themselves before. it’s genuinely refreshing. I’ve been watching since March and this has been my favorite youtube channel. I find your forecast percentages to be the most fun part after listening to your deep dive of research. Not only is it a perfect way to summarize your confidence on a specific topic but I find the forecast to be highly memorable when watching a Nintendo direct. I’ll think to myself “Oh wow it did release!” or “Wow we were close on that one!”. I can’t speak for the whole community but I wanted to highlight that some of us feel as if we’re on the same team, making these forecasts with you. This makes it very exciting when following official news and watching directs. Anyways keep up the good work
Thank you so much for the kind words and the superthanks - and for sticking with the channel! I really appreciate it!
Take a shot everytime the word "Forecast" comes up in this video.
Oh man - I hope my videos kill but not literally...
The new pfp made me think this was another channel doing a debunking of Nintendo forecast type of video lmaoo
Liking the rebrand! I Thought one might've come with switch 2, didn't expect to see it prior to an announcement :)
Thats what i was thinking too😭
Lmao, same
Honestly, the forecast percentages are the reason I subscribed to you and have been watching faithfully since your last prediction evaluation of last year! I think your percentage system forces your to be very deliberate and creative with what videos you put out and what you speculate on, which is extremely refreshing. It’s very fun to watch you keep yourself accountable in that way. Keep it up!!
Thanks for sticking around! Yeah, if there's a big demand for the numbers I'm more than happy to reinstate them. I still don't think I have it quite right in terms of a language that conveys what I mean to regular viewers but isn't alienating to some people. I'll keep thinking it through (and suggestions welcome!).
@nintendoforecast I just think there's a lot of people (not including me) that see numbers and are irrationally spooked like math is some scary monster looking to snatch them out from under their bed.
If I'm thinking of a compromise, maybe what you could do is use the natural language throughout the main body of the video, but at the end of it, make some definitive statements that put all of the numbers all in one place, so if there's anyone who's spooked by them can still enjoy the bulk of your work.
Could work but YT's algorithm massively rewards sequential viewing so I'd be cautious about confusing new viewers right before I recommend them a video. Maybe in the description? Hmm.
@nintendoforecast in the description, you may put a legend that explain what the words means, example, like means 70%, very likely mean 90%, theres even chance 50%, etc
@nintendoforecast I personally like the numbers quite a bit myself, so I think that putting the numbers in the description sounds like a great idea! That way new viewers won't be alienated, but viewers like me can still have our specific numbers for our forecasts. As a side note, it's nice to see just how accurate your forecasts are! Thank you for all of the hard work that you put into making them!
I’ve been subbed since last march and every forecast video has been relatively accurate and also grounded in its speculation. Every other video has been insightful or just plain entertaining. You have something special here with this channel!
Bro really about to question his own reliability; he’s just like me fr.
The new channel logo made me think some other channel was investigating your predictions and got surprised when opening the video.
Dude, I'm not gonna lie. I didn't think you would get so close. Fantastic job and Fantastic channel. Don't listen to the haters. Your videos are the most fact based Nintendo videos I have seen
I didn't either!
Honestly one of the best qualities of this channel is that basically every video is subtitled, helps a lot when you cant hear audio but still can enjoy the content
Thanks. As I mentioned in another response, if ever a video isn't subbed it's because of YT being fussy and usually if you check alternative tracks (e.g. English UK) you should be able to find the subbed one. Occasionally I go off-script and forget to type it up but hopefully it's 99% on point.
Yes! The subtitles seem to be of old scripts or something, since there are usually a couple inconsistencies between what is actually being said, but it's really nice
The percentages are a defining characteristic of your content for me, not really because of the percentages themselves, but because I feel they represent the unique, fact based, and well researched approach you bring to every video of yours.
*There are two main reasons I’d suggest continuing with the percentages:*
*1.* _Percentages highlight to new viewers why your channel is one of a kind, representing and hinting at the massive amounts of information and work you put into making sure what you say is as reliable and as informed as possible._
*2.* _It is a clear audio signal for viewers to know exactly when you are making one of your signature forecasts_
It's what grabbed my attention most when I first started watching your videos because it contrasted greatly with the very nebulous and vague statements many other UA-camrs tend to make.
Your self assessment videos like this one where you go over every prediction and hold yourself accountable really exemplifies just how different, and valuable your content is. If I never heard your percentage based forecasts, I’m not sure I’d fully understand the focus on improvement and level of self accountability you hold yourself too.
*I understand that having to explain what the percentages mean in every video or risk confusing new viewers is a very valid concern,* but honestly *it was that bit of confusion when I first started watching your content that made me more invested in figuring out what you had to say.*
It's important I clarify my curiosity never overshadowed the main research and content of your videos, but I was asking questions like _“What do these percentages mean?_ and _"How reliable are they?”_ I then quickly stumbled upon your other video like this one, and watching you break down your accuracy is what completely sold me on your channel.
*When I recommended your videos* to my mother, the first thing I brought up was your percentages, and how they represented the thorough research you do, and how much you strive to put out the best work you can.
A youtuber making predictions while holding themselves to the standard that you do is incredible, and I feel anything (like the percentages) that brings attention to just how much work and effort you put into making your forecasts as informed as possible should definitely *stay!*
*I’d say it’s **_Very Likely (90%)_** you would most benefit by finding a way to mention percentages in at least a majority of your videos,* especially if they focus on making predictions. I do think some videos benefit from percentages more than others, and that having them in the captions is a nice compromise, I just personally prefer that not be the case most of the time.
Sorry this was a longer comment than I thought it would be! Either way, I know you’ll figure out a solution that ticks all your boxes, best of luck!
Thanks. A very thoughtful and well-reasoned case. I'll give it some thought.
God i love this channel and you so much. Keep up the Amazing work!
Thank you!
I dont focus on the forcasts, your analysis is what i come here for. You're the best at it!
so in summary, it’s pretty accurate. that makes things much more fun and interesting
“Less salubrious locales” is insane lmao
I've been waiting for this video since the first time I saw one of your predictions. I was very curious, and I'm happy to see that you are indeed surprisingly accurate. Congratulations, and keep up the great forecasting work!
Really enjoy your channel. "Very likely" sounds really close to "fairly likely" so maybe just go with "very likely" for 90/10 and "likely" for 70/30. Helps me know where I can put the forecast on my bingo card (lol). Keep up the good work.
It’s impressive to see how close your forecasts got to the target percentages in every case- really goes to show how excellent the research and just base judgement for this channel is. Having fun, outlandish prediction channels is great, I have a few people I watch that go into the speculation scene more just guns blazing, and I’m personally someone who plays things too safe to make high risk bets or predictions most times, so I really appreciate having a channel I follow that’s a nice middle ground of making well informed, reasonable predictions, but can throw a mad one out every so often.
I never recall your predictions personally as I just enjoy resonating or being clued up with your informed perspective and imagination.
A summary screen of predictions at the end of your videos might be fun, assuming someone doesn't weaponise the visual for some petty reason if a bunch end up wrong.
I watch these when i get off work in the morning. These videos are great and high quality. You're going to grow big.
Oh gosh, hope you're night shifts are ok
Love the niche you’ve created. Great quality, brilliant research.
I’m gonna give you the best Nintendo UA-cam channel award 🥇
Thank you so much!
I mean this in a very nice way - I couldn't really care less if the forecasts end up being accurate or not!
This channel has an incredibly cozy vibe to me, there's a lovely sense of minimalism with the videos themselves, which contrasts wonderfully with the very considered, intelligent analysis work. Whether or not that analysis and research ultimately results in the forecasts being "correct" or not is secondary in my view, the experience of being guided through them is always worth it more than enough! You're clearly not trying to "gain" anything from these in the same way pompous leakers often are, you're very upfront about these things ultimately being nothing more than educated guesses.
You come to some fascinating conclusions, and look at things from perspectives I never would've considered. You're calm, respectful, and always seem incredibly open-minded, never once coming across obnoxious or "above others" due to your... frankly far better analytical skills, compared to most in this space.
TLDR; I think this channel offers a lot more than just its' accuracy rating - some idea of what may be coming next for Nintendo IS an incentive to watch, sure, but I come here for YOU Mr. Nintendo Forecast Man!! Your specific viewpoint and your specific way of presenting that viewpoint are the reasons I'm subscribed!
I can't speak for everyone of course but personally speaking, please keep doing what you're doing! It's always an incredibly pleasant time whenever you drop a new forecast! ^^
Thank you so much!
I really appreciate your channel. I wish nothing but success in the next year.
(Also, those estimate results are astounding.)
Have to say this is my favorite YT channel I discovered over the last 12 months. You are doing a banger of a job both on your predictions and on your research.
Thank you Forecast, and keep up the great work!
Thank you!
genuinely astonishing to me
This channel has quickly become one of my favorites on this site. Ever since I saw the Forever Entertainment video, I knew that this channel was quality. Mostly facts and logic used, not nonstop rumors. Keep it up man, you’re works are one of the best, and your developer deep dives are always something I look forward too.
Thank you!
I’ve noticed recently your subtitles have gotten more accurate to what’s being said. Excellent work, keep it up!
UA-cam is a bit annoying with this. It's easier if the video is uploaded a few hours in advance and then I can overwrite their custom tracks but otherwise it will often default to theirs. There should usually be a custom track though - it'll be listed as "English (UK)" or similar if it's not what automatically comes up.
Switch 1 era spawned a lot of new nintendo youtubers that have stuck around and at the beginning had a little golden era. I knew switch 2 might do something similar but i didnt realize what was missing was such a in depth analytical channel. Keep being awesome bro. You are pretty much the only youtuber i watch now. That and Arlo but Arlo says weird things sometimes lol
Thank you!
Just keep doing what you're doing! Your nintendo research videos are great and I would love too also see more gaming general reviews!
Definitely the most detailed and realistic channel on Nintendo news that I’ve seen. I love other channels like Nintendo Life but you definitely take it to a different level. Keep it up!
I’m really going to miss the 5 categories but I understand the reasoning to change it. Whether it stays or not I’ll stay tuned for sure
Legit one of the few content creators, and the only one in the video game speculation/prediction space, who would go out of their way to hold themselves to the things they said. This is why I keep watching, you're running a quality show here, dude.
this channel absolutely rules
I love the accountability aspect of this channel. It's better analysis than many paid analysts. Thanks for what you do with this channel, hope you'll continue long into the future
i had commented on an earlier video that i miss the percentages, but your rational for more natural language makes a lot more sense to me now. great video and im impressed how accurate your forecasts were to the percentages! excited for new forecasts in 2025 especially with the swtich 2 coming :]
Brilliant channel idea. Excellent execution.
3:25 I don't know if you were thinking about me specifically, but I did tell you that the gigaleak contradicted something more than once. Regardless, it does feel cool to be referenced in a actual video (in a way at least)
Yes, always appreciate your insights!
Incredible forecasts! Love your content. I look forward to what you create in 2025. If you keep these odds consistent I have a feeling you’ll gain significant notoriety in the community and your forecasts much more shared.
Love the percentage rankings for your predictions. Please keep focusing on this moving forward!
I thought this was a channel stealing your content when i saw the picture. But this is the real nintendo forcast
It's really cool that you reviewed your own forecast. Crazy, how accurate you where! 😊 I never minded the numbers, but I'll understand the changes. Keep up the good work!
The quality and quantity of videos on this channel is insane. Prominent news outlets don’t do as much research as this guy, let alone any other UA-cam channel.
Love the new logo my guy 👌
Im so glad i found this channel! It's been a daily watvh for a good long while! 😍
Thanks for sticking with the channel!
I’ve enjoyed the mix of research and forecasting your videos have, and I think it’s totally reasonable to have both combined as long as it’s clear which is which. Even when I vehemently disagree with your forecasts (though I think your record is generally pretty good), I still find value in hearing about the topics covered/researched.
À bit of a long comment, but from the first video I watched it became a respected channel for me. Now the things have changed a bit, for the better. This is one of my beloved channels! I know that I'll watch a video from a person with great reasoning, amazing writing and recording skills and almost unmatched research. A person who's taking so serious of what they are doing that will double check themselves, make large-scale retrospective analysis on their own Forcasts and is taking the time to read the comments so they can correct themselves if something wasn't clear enough.
I really hope many more people will find this channel cause it deserves it❤
Thank you!
Very impressed how close you got it!
This channel is some of the highest quality content out there for sure. Here’s to many more forecasts in the new Era of Nintendo with the Switch 2!
Thank you! By the way, terrific question on Kit & Krysta this week.
@ Of course! And thank you, hearing their insight on how Nintendo thinks during times like these where most of us are head-scratching is always so useful. The idea of Nintendo willing to “risk” the leaks is an interesting one.
The percentages are just the fun gimmick.
Some people just get crazy over nothing. Like people who treat game reviews scores like it's a math test.
"10/10 yet you say the game isn't perfect? That doesn't make sense!" - A crazy person.
Only games get those people. Not books or movies. It's crazy.
Some people see numbers/percentages and get irrationally spooked and think Math is about to strike when they're not expecting it, and some may even get the fight/flight response to it. Weird, I know.
I refuse to give any game a 10/10 because I'm crazy
@@alphamarigi It's not about the media being perfect! It's never been!
It's only about "giving something the highest possible recommendation". It's been that way even since 5 star reviews were created!
"I can't possibly recommend this game enough, so it's a 10/10, despite any flaws I may find with it, it's worth it."
Otherwise every 5 star movie is dubious because "no movie is perfect."
@@SharpEdgeSoda okay but why not just give them 9.9s?
These are my favorite videos you make
Already this time of the year ? Time fly by..
Bit earlier than last year actually but seemed like a good time for it.
Nin forecast is the GOAT
As nintendo shareholder I like this channel. Logic based. 😊
Just wanted to say that I love your speculation and system you have for evaluating how likely it is. Your channel is far more intelligent and measured than almost any other when it comes to Nintendo. Thank you!
oh i've been noticing you putting the percentages in the captions instead of on screen, that's a good compromise for viewers with no context while keeping the numbers up for nerds like me
I really enjoy your number percent likelihood predictions.
Wow it’s amazing how close these are!
This is probably a better record than any “insider” or leaker. Well done!
I have a predilection to procrastinate over prognostication, it's a problematic and yet prudent predisposition, in terms of pragmatism.
Patently your precocious ponderings presage pre-eminence.
@nintendoforecast haha 👌🏻
A great example of research based strategic forecasting. Keep up the good work. Some of us are geeks on the methodology. Would be interesting to know what theories and models you use.
I actually prefer the 10/30/50/70/90.
I agree that these changes will be easier to follow.
Either way looking forward to seeing the future of the video!
Gotta say I personally will miss the percentages as the novelty of a UA-camr holding themselves accountable is great, but I understand the reasoning so won’t cry about it too much!
Well done on your accuracy, very impressive, will be looking forward to the next years videos! I forecast an unlikely Advance Wars love letter/review before 2026 😁
What percentage likelihood would you put that at?
@ Using the new natural language rules I think that makes it 30%
May main concern with the shift to natural language is I've often listened to your videos in the background, so I've used those percentages as audio cues that a Forecast is happening, as opposed to just random pondering in the moment. Now with the more natural language, I'm concerned I won't be able to reliable use the Very Likely etc statements as flags for a Forecast, and would have to look at the phone to see if the percentage came up on the screen.
Just my 2 cents.
Yes, this is my big concern with it. I really want a way of phrasing it that conveys to regular viewers what's happening without needing explanation each time. I haven't really figured out an option that works (although suggestions very welcome). What may happen is that on forecast-heavy videos I explain and use percentages but on videos that are just research based and I just drop observations on the side I don't.
Your new logo looks really nice! The blue compliments the whole forecast thing 🫶
Nintendo "percent" Forecast is my channel discovery of last year and surely i'll follow your discussions along switch 2 lifecycle, keep up the work and good luck
I kinda thought someone made a hit piece on you
The guy is more accountable than the mainstream media. ❤
I noticed in your newer videos that you stopped to reference percentage predictions. I was concerned you had stopped doing these predictions because I love this portion of your content.
I’m very pleased to hear that you are still doing predictions and I love the revision to group 90/10 and 70/30.
So far your “natural language” strategy seems to be working great. As a long time viewer I recognize when you are making a prediction without you saying the number specifically.
Yes, I'm still looking for a phraseology that is distinctive enough to be transparent to long-term viewers but not distracting each time. Glad you're enjoying this aspect of the channel!
Good call on the reduced number of bins and therefore larger sample sizes going forward. And good job on the accounting of calibrations too! We need more statistical literacy in the world!
Bro is the most professional Nintendo fan ever
The new profile pic made me think this was a channel forecasting _you_
The only problem I have is with your spelling of "favorite" 😝 Keep going! Most logical justification provided for any Ninterest channel I know. Right or wrong, no one else has been as thoughtful, in my honest opinion. Certainly my favourite channel out here.
Ha! You know, if you check the original video I think it's spelt the American way so the one I used here must be a variant I made. I generally do use US spellings for thumbs and titles but UK spellings for captions. Thanks for your support as ever!
I will say, I personally appreciate your insights regardless of the percentages you put on things. I understand their use for accountability purposes, but it isn't the primary reason I stick around. I'm looking forward to more of your videos while Nintendo seems to be expanding their business as aggressively as it is!
What if I told you that your reviews are my favorite parts of the channel? Maybe they’re even my favorite videos, because they present just how serious you are with the other videos. :3
Thank you!
I've been very impressed with your ability to make engaging scripts with strong educated guesses. With the lowkey editing style like yours, with b-roll with relevant pictures, I feel like it'd be so easy to drone on unscripted, but no.
I like the new logo, but I miss the sun.
I appreciate these videos so don't take this as a complaint but I think that it might be beneficial to split your forecasts into short and long term.
"I think x will have an 60% likely to occur by end of 2025 with 90% likelihood by 2027" or something like that. Or even a declaration of all the things you think are 50% or greater likelihood to happen this year.
Perhaps you've done this but I think reiterating your exact predictions for a given year, especially the current one, helps to keep it in audience's minds.
Good point. Most of them do have either a time limit (within 2 years of the S2 release, by the end of 2027) or a natural limit (e.g. by the end of Switch's life, when the next game releases). Also, the nature of Nintendo stuff is that you can't necessarily tell what's short term and long term. A new Mario Kart forecast seems like it would be short term but if it's not released until 2026 it would be long term. The thing is though, the forecasts are a snapshot of my judgment at a particular point in time. A lot of them remain true over time (e.g. a Famicom Detective Club in 2027 seems a good bet to me) but some change as I learn more or new things come out. If I reposted them I'd probably want to tweak and that would mean a new forecast.
Good tidying up, but I do think that separating positive predictions (probably will happen) from negative predictions (probably won't happen) would be prudent, because frankly, it's a lot easier to forecast the negatives than the positives. E.g., it's easier to say it won't snow on a given day than it will, because snow is less frequent than no snow. You have a billion potential correct targets for what the Switch 2 gimmick won't be, and only a handful of correct targets for what it will be. So if you're lumping all the negative predictions in with the positive predictions, you're obfuscating the accuracy of predictions people actually are most interested in: the positive predictions.
Yeah, that's a good point. Also should be fairly easy as going with the "natural language" approach it's far easier to say "likely" (i.e. 70%) than 70:30. Hmm.
Can you release a public spreadsheet of all predictions for viewers to follow along from home? Or is this a Patreon exclusive reward?
It's for members but not paid. But it's a good point, I think I can make them public access without people having to sign up to Patreon. I'll have a look later this week (trying to work on a new video at the mo!)
I thought the video was from someone else because of the new profile pic, lol
I don't care if it was a mad idea then or now. Mad is a point of view. Nintendo Forecast uses in-depth research to make predictions - everyone else just picks things out of the air as they want whether it actually makes sense or not. They want such-and-such a game at Switch 2 launch and they're convinced they're going to get it even when simple research says its unlikely. Who is the mad one here?
I also don't care when you are wrong. It wouldn't be any fun if Nintendo's plans could be so accurately predicted. Part of the fun is being surprised by what Nintendo does (or doesn't do.) Your percentage bands give a great sense of confidence though and you're hitting these bands at such a high accuracy that I consider them reliable predictions.
One thing I did notice is some hedging of bets by predicting multiple exclusive outcomes for the same result. I.e. 50% Oiwa directing EoW, 30% Yamada, 30% someone else, 10% Takada - well one of these is going to be right and three of them wrong. I don't mind this for forecasting, but if you're going to analyze the forecast results in this manner, perhaps they should not count as 1 full point in each category, but a quarter of a point. In this manner, 50% band was 13 correct out of 28.25 forecasts or 46% (up from 44.82%), 30% band was 12.25 out of 35.5 forecasts or 34.5% (down from 36.11%), and 10% band was 3 out of 35.25 or 8.51% (up from 8.33%) - in all three cases you were actually a bit closer to your intended mid-band mark when you account for this fact. Probably a few more topics have mutually exclusive forecasts where a similar partial point could be considered, but I'm just using the EoW director thing as an example as I saw it scroll past several times during the video.
Thank you! It's a good point about 'hedging' and it's something I do consider. Of course it would be easy to do this with the 50% band by simply forecasting each way so I'm cautious to never do that (hence my 50% accuracy being the furthest off!!) but saying option A is 10%, option B is 50%, option C is 10% and option D is 30% feels like a meaningful differentiation. Plus, if I'm adding to 100% it should cover all options (of course sometimes it's a bit more as the options overlap). These are actually really tricky to do as the bands can lead to a kind of artificial limitation which occasionally I get round by stacked forecasts which lead to implied percentages (e.g. 50% chance of a Direct general or mini, 30% chance of a General Direct is a 20% implied chance of a Direct Mini).
I enjoy this channel very much. No other Nintendo channels focus on this behind the scenes stuff. Im just surprised you're British, as far as I know Europeans tend to dislike Nintendo for some reason
Congrats. Great work.
Oooooo clean rebrand!
Forecast forever!
Gotta say I would be pretty proud of those results if i were you, it’s very impressive considering it’s Nintendo we’re talking about here
I love these videos
Before watching, I love the concept of this video!
After watching, interesting results and reasonable plans!
As accurate as me saying that a new Starfox game is close, and that four amiibos will be launched with the next Mario game this year. So yes, very accurate
Here's hoping!
@nintendoforecast don't lose faith, it will be an interesting year. Just a bit more patience!
I’ve been waiting for this video 😈
Impressive track record!
I think there's value in keeping the 90/10s and 70/30s separate. Of course it's mathematically equivalent to give a 10% chance of something happening and a 90% chance of it not, but from a forecasting perspective I think there's lots of room for variability between the two scenarios in practise; it's perfectly reasonable to imagine a world where there is an asymmetry/bias between predicting how likely a likely event is vs how unlikely an unlikely event is, because the nature of what's being assessed is pretty fundamentally different. I can definitely see why you'd want to make the change to increase the sample size, but I think from a forecasting/accountability perspective it unintentionally muddies the waters a bit.
Great change though I think to make the predictions more explicitly qualitative over quantitiative though; I think it's the best of both worlds to use qualitative language to not put people off and not give a false impression of inflated self-confidence, whilst also having regular viewers know what's really meant by it. I commented a while back how I was originally put off by the numbers just because I thought it was a bit silly to prescribe precise odds to speculation and guessework however well-informed, but when I realised that you were actually talking in terms of buckets instead of precise probabilities it made way more sense. Realising that 90% doesn't *really* mean 90% precisely, but just that the chance varies on a case-by-case basis between 80% and 100% and on average the events in that bucket will be close to 90%, I went from dismissing the channel as a bit silly to actively appreciating what it's trying to do. To be fair though I'm reasonably well-versed in numbers and statistics so probably for most people it wouldn't be much of an issue. I'm glad to see how you've improved with this already and how you're continuing to improve.
This channel is easily the most informative, well thought out, and interesting channels about Nintendo I've come across. It's great work.
Interesting thoughts - thank you. I kind of realised afterwards that the natural language approach is at odds with merging the forecasts anyway so I could conceivably still assess both. But I do now try to look at things from both the 90 and the 10 perspective both.
The David Attenborough of Nintendo lol
Nice. Insane Brier scores I'm sure
White text on a blue background is difficult to read. The shape of the new logo is great though.
Everybody loves the new profile pic. 😄
I fully support this mad idea 😀👍
Wow. So impressive. Maybe Nintendo is more predictable than everyone thought. I guess only time will tell. Excellent work as always