Were we RIGHT? The state of the 2023 BIKING INDUSTRY
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- Опубліковано 11 лип 2024
- The Pro's Closet - pros-closet.sjv.io/R5Zyny
We predicted a lot of things in 2022. Were they right? Today we look at the current state of the bike industry after record pricing with low supply. Are we still there in the mountain, road and gravel biking markets? There has been a shift in retail and supply.
#bikeindustry #mtb #cycling
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Comment below on what you are seeing in your local area. Also be sure to check out The Pro's Closet for some great deals right now on used and new bikes. pros-closet.sjv.io/R5Zyny
My local shop is full of bikes and theyre all on sale 20 to 25% i still cant afford them lol
Nice to hear there is more stock and the prices are lower. Now if my local shop employees could lost the attitude, I'll get a new bike.
Most shop employees are faced with attitude from entitles customers. Fix my bike now! I can get this derailleur for half price online, could you price match? I have a race next Tuesday afternoon and need my questionable warranty claim by then. If you don’t do this for me, I will give you a bad review.
Shop employees deal with a lot and the more money a customer has, the bigger the asshole he is.
@@billdavis6978as a bike mechanic I agree
Yup, we're generally scheduling out labor
2-6 weeks. It's been this way for years! We have so much work it's not uncommon to turn away PITA customers. I have more than enough great customers who understand our rules and simple reality! I will however bend over backwards to keep reasonable folks, who rely on their bikes rolling along. We have many great repeat customers who come to for years because of our professionalism and great service.
This has not changed in the 8 years I've wrenched in the bike industry for one company.
The customer comes to me for my expertise. Bottom line.
There's well over 100 years experience working in our shop, a former Pro tour mechanic, a part time engineer and myself, a retired machinist and inspector. We can't be fooled.
It's my way, the highway or DIY. Therefore my time is valuable and I will be paid what I'm worth! I never discount labor! That's a big no no. TIME IS $$$. That's a fact. Don't like it? Move on, find another shop. Plain and simple.
When customers ask for a discount, I counter by asking what they do for a living and if their time can or should be discounted. I work in one of the most expensive zip codes in the US. This sort of logic usually shuts them right up. If they insist I'll show them the manager and or the freakin door!!
The customer IS NOT always right. At times they need a wake up call to the facts of reality!
There's simply no point in killing the messenger. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but it very simply is what it is!
How's that for attitude?
Someone treated me crap once, now I can treat everyone else like crap first
Everything will come back to you. Be nice to people and they will be nice to you. I will never ever threat my bike mechanic bad. He is like a doctor for me 😀It so ridiculous how difficult it is to find a good bike shop and mechanic
This is exactly what we are seeing down here in New Zealand some retailers are offering 50% off some top end bikes, destroying the second hand
market, but fantastic if you are purchasing.
I’m glad I got into MTB this year and not during the height of the crazines
Prices are still crazy. They just write "-30% Discount!" and the price is as it should be in the beginning. If it's -50% then you can start to consider it a real discount.
Another factor is the irrational exuberance the industry indulged during Covid, declaring we were experiencing a bike boom when widespread lock-down boredom drove a brief sales spike. The entire industry prepared for a wave of new customers, but those potential fresh riders soon remembered that bicycles make them sweat and make their asses hurt. As soon as they could go back indoors with other people, they returned to gym memberships they don't use.
My newest bike is a 1998 Merlin extra light. My oldest is a late 70s Raleigh super Grand Prix. With a Italian built lug frame bianchi in the middle. No need to ever buy a new bike, especially for current stupid money prices
Amazing!
Yep. 97 Litespeed w/ Campy SR here 👍🏻
What I am seeing for road bikes in mid-Michigan: none of the bike shops are carrying inventory other than entry level Claris and Sora group sets, although they are perfectly willing to order anything else available from Trek, Specialized, or Giant (dependent on the affiliation of the shop) at the price listed on the manufacturer's website. From there, I've spent the past two months looking for a new road bike with a hard upper limit of $3000. I'm seeing (online) $1000 off an $8000 bike and $500 off of a $5000 bike, but neither of those get down to $3000. Best bet for me would be to drop $2000 on an aluminum frame, aluminum wheel disc 105. If the market is flooded with inventory, it must be high dollar/high margin since the bike manufacturers pretty much abandoned the low-mid price point market.
Chain Reaction here in the UK has had some insane deals on bikes. I got a 2022 Nukeproof full-sus for nearly 50% less than retail. It's way more capable than me as an average rider, which I think is another contributing factor, i.e. that most modern bikes are as good as an average rider will ever need, so the drive to upgrade is reducing.
Further to this, I've just heard Chain Reaction/Wiggle is going into self-administration and related brands such as Nukeproof and Vitus are in financial difficulties. Sad times, but it does mean there'll be some serious deals on bikes and components now.
Parent company of Nuke, Vitus, and Wiggle just pulled their financial backing. Company lost 94 million in 2022.
love this channel. i agree with what you said in this video too. I've been seeing huge sales on bikesonline. they have full carbon coil sprung frames in the 3k range and thats crazy. Keep up the great content
Thanks Michael!
Great video! Thanks!
Even with sales, the bike prices are still ridiculous. 25% off a $5K+ bicycle is still an expensive bicycle. Ride the bike you have; it is good enough. Choke out the Industry long enough to stop pushing unneeded R&D on rec riders.
I got a pretty good e-bike on amazon for $550 ($150 delivery) totguard fat tires etc. the competition was about $700 w/ free shipping so seemed fair. I remember a good e-bike like this would have cost a lot more a few years ago. Like a few thousand
There's no such thing as a good e-bike for $550. Better make sure you've got a $500 helmet to go with that!
I believe it's going to go down further..brutal..bought bike during covid now used its a quater price thanks for the video
It definitely could. It depends on what the economy looks like where you live going into Q1 of next year when sales are typically slow after the holiday season and the weather is terrible. If they are still sitting on a lot of inventory next spring...there could be some massive sales to move old models.
@@Bike198 no could, it will.
My local Special Lies dealer keeps dropping the prices every time I go there. But I will still keep riding my 32 year old MTB and my 43 year old road bike. They don't make them like they used to.
Hehh
Agreed - I just bought another bike. It is a $25 1993 hybrid. It was defective. It had a flat. This bike is unique. It has a Suntour S-1 derailleur. With a little work it will be good for another 30 years.
I'd suggest riding an actual trail/"mountain" bike with some decent travel, 140mm or so, it's a totally different ballpark than a 90s "mountain" (cross country) bike.
I'm in the Denver Colorado area. On the new bike side I am seeing 2024 Yeti models in stores at 20% off. Leftover 2023 models even lower. On the used side I took a big hit selling a Pivot Switchblade but also scored a 2023 Yeti SB120 in near mint condition for $4K (both confirming that the used market is soft).
I just bought a Force HT 350 "Bronze" for $ 750.00.. out the door.. I"ve seen it average 11 to 1,300 all day day on line.. Love it!
A couple of points to add to your video. Point #4, 2022 model bikes are speced with higher end parts and are for sale at a lower cost of 2023 models. #5, 2024 model bikes hit the shelves next month with 2022 and 2023 bikes still on dealer and warehouse floors. Used bikes are taking away from new sales because a lot of the bikes purchased during Covid had minimal amount of miles put on them and when life started returning back to normal the bikes started hanging on the wall. Now people want to clear their garage. Last but not least. The bike industry leaders thought this wave would carry on forever. What bit them in the butt during Covid bit them in the butt exiting Covid. They're unable to see trends and think logically or read signs far enough out. Unfortunately the companies will cut jobs and incentive dealers to take old inventory which in turn will collapse shops. The worst has yet to come and if anyone is wanting to buy a bike, wait until next spring. Also, TPC is way over priced.
Absolutely. I see that happening all over the place. I am actually kind of surprised you don't see some delays in model releases. I think at the very least the new releases are not going to be big changes for the most part. Maybe some new colors and a slight refresh to not completely tank the existing inventory out there.
Besides custom frames and wheels I build myself, I buy NOS, used or I get lots of barely used 'old junk' for free.
DIY! This is where the greatest value for your dollar can be had. You also get EXACTLY what YOU want suited to YOUR specific needs.
The use it and throw it away attitude of modern consumers is laughable. ALWAYS, the 'upgrade'.......I'm aware what Eddy Merckx had to say about up grades.
It's also pretty funny that my old bikes remain unchanged after decades of hard 'underbiking' use.
I'm a retired machinist and mechanical inspector, now a high end shop mechanic for fun. Nobody's fooling me as to the so called 'QC' in the bike industry. It's an overpriced joke! The modern bike industry provides 'job security' ! Modern Asian made bikes become cannon fodder as landfill in a few short years.
It's the RIDER, not the freakin bike.
Yeah, that discount wave has hit my shores. Some premium brands are giving discounts up to 50%. I immediately got one for myself.
And the used market is now just flooded with bikes and components but where I'm from, we have a long way to go in terms of selling mindset; the used prices are still relatively high and items just aren't moving. The fact that people have given up mtbiking after covid restrictions which contributed to a significant drop in demand also didn't help.
Yes, you were and are right what is challenging is if your looking for a size large bike most of the sales are for small and xl sizes. Also worn out with the hype and over marketing of high end so elite so expensive and I think still not that accessible to consumers. The most overrated and insulting is price point. Love your channel!
It’s about time. The prices have been too over the top, thanks to covid. It should be at least 50%
Compared to an automobile bicycles have little content. The prices don’t justify the production costs. Greed is driving the prices.
A friend owns a bike shop in the UK, he has exactly this problem. Sales are dead, and he's sitting on a lot of stock that he can't shift. Chain Reaction and Wiggle, big bicycle and parts sales related websites, have gone into administration. The industry is in trouble. Just hoping my friend ride it out without going under.
I think you should make a follow up to this video as we're starting to see deeper discounts the closer we get to Black Friday. It's not even Black Friday but some brands are BOGO or 50% off original MSRP.
I hope the same happens to cycling apparel. It’s insane paying for bib shorts that cost the same as a wheel. 🤦🏻♂️
not too worry..we'll be in another lockdown by december! jus in time for christmas!!
The price of high-end bikes has also gone a bit nuts.
I ride a 2019 Transition Smuggler Carbon XO1. In 2019 it was the top of the line model and the SRP was around $6000. Now the top of the line Smuggler is around $8500 SRP.
I'm sure the new SRAM Transmission is very cool but the shifting on my bike is pretty good and I'm not about to shell out that much for slightly better. There's a point at which it no longer makes sense.
If a bicycle is going for more than $6K, buy a dirt bike instead.
@@thelakeman5207 that works if you want a dirt bike. Not everyone does.
But if a bike costs more than $6k I would probably buy a cheaper bike. I bought the one I have second hand, with no sign that it had ever been ridden, for about half of SRP. There are deals if you're patient and you don't insist on the current latest greatest features.
@@steverogers5956 I'll agree with that. Most of these expensive bikes are solely for racing. The average rider doesn't need anything that advanced. Hell, I spent 2 season's on a WalMart bike and loved every minute of it!
Just starting. This is like mx motorcycle market in 09-2010. So many dealers and distributors going broke this winter. Real wholesale component cost of high end mtb is under $1000. Demand based pricing is over. Post holiday reality in February will be bankruptcy bikes broker that $1000 cost. 80% discounts coming. Don’t bite on $5000 prices today.
I just got a Cube e mtb for £2950. Discounted from £4500. Bike number 6. First cheat bike. Ideal for Glentress 65 miles from Glasgow
I bought my bike last month, $100 savings is all I got on a 2022. Just looked and no drop in prices.
your video proofs my theory that the market is flooded with bikes. I had to sell my MTB at a much lower price.
I see Canyon offering better prices but when you dive in still low inventory. Only a few sizes. Been true since early pandemic. Luckily I got my endurace Ultegra DI2 while smalls were still available
Pity those who got stung but I suspected prices would drop when popular models sat for quite a while. Still not cheap but can get a better ride for less if in the market.
I've predicted many trends but I could never get management to listen--they all jump on the badwagon even though they are moving too late to catch the demand wave, then risking putting themselves out of business by overshooting on inventory
100’ correct!!
Well I'll just hold off on my new ride.
20% off a 100% markup is not a deal.
I bought a Pivot Switchbalde for 8K in 2021, was barely able to sell it for 3K, however, just bought a sentinel for 5K, so kinda worked out in the wash.
Very few people will spend eight thousand on a new bicycle. Same with selling it, so you'll have to slash the price.
@@thelakeman5207 yeah I learned the hard way lol
Yes I agree but the thing I see is GREEDY bike shops not understanding the market and holding firm to HIGH prices. If the bike shops adjusted their pricing, they would sale more bikes IMO. I get profits must be made, but you have to be realistic as well.
It seems that manufacturers in many industries have gotten very good at controlling supply, so they can rip us off in any market environment.
I'm seeing the sales but not for the bike I want, a Ripley
hiking prices fifty percent ,[ for example) and then having a sale at 20% off hardly constitutes a "crash " .
That's one of the oldest marketing schemes on the planet .
raise the price way above retail and then have a sale at a fraction of the increase ?Lol
That's like a furniture store that has a Grand opening and a going out of business sale on the same day .
This all sounds rosy for a buyer but the reality is rather different. Firstly, the sales are isolated incidences where a particular supplier has excess of a certain model, we aren't seeing an across the board decrease in prices. Secondly, the price hike started way before covid existed, this has been going on for years. The industry has shot themselves in the foot and these sales are not going to rescue them from their present predicament. The average working joe has long been firmly sidelined into purchasing second hand only. Furthermore it's not just bikes that are overly expensive - it's EVERYTHING that can even vaguely be related to cycling and sold as a "cycling" product. Getting into the sport these days is prohibitive for a vast section of the population and getting into racing well nigh impossible. The industry as a whole needs a solid reality check (which they are going to get full force!) and figure out that rampant innovation and boutique manufacturing of highly specialised good (always very costly) is not going to maintain a healthy market in the long run. They need to seriously look at getting economies of scale and less costly methods on making innovative products (3D printing etc.) to lower prices for the end consumer.
Q1/2 next year will be the time to buy.
Does anyone know if this is true for components as well as new bicycles?
It is. The vast majority of component sales go to OEM's for bike builds. When those are down...so are their sales.
The bread and butter bikes are a non seller in our shop right now.
45% off sale at Lynksey bikes. I grabbed one.
Economics 101 on the supply and demand for the "average bike consumer". As a Boomer who rode to school, like sneakers I would out grow my bikes. I thought my dream Campagnola Colnago Master Bi-Titanio would be my last bike, Not. Whether consumed for utility or cherished possession, the market will pick the winners and losers. I remember Schwinn Sting-rays, Varsity, and eventually LeTour and Paramount. Schwinn joins Sears as just a memory for those who can remember. That is to say, change is coming as youngster pass me by in China manufactured Ebikes (after their care givers retrieve them from school).
Is Reynolds 753 lugged tig welded frames still a thing?
753 was always lugged and brazed. It's so thin welding would burn through I think. You also had to be specially certified to build with it. 753 was pretty exotic stuff waaay back in the day. My rich riding buddy had a Raleigh Team Professiinal built with it. I had a 'plain old' Raleigh Pro with silk tubulars and Campy NR. I still ride those same glorious silky Record hubs! I love old vintage stuff!
There's better steel tubing than that now. I still ride some old Reynolds 531 and Columbus custom frames though.
Check out Japanese Kaisei tubing or Reynolds 953 stainless tubing. Kaisei is probably the thinnest and lightest steel bike tubing made. It's designed to be flexy and comfortable on very long rides. I built a low trail fork out of it and mistook it for the suspension fork on my hard tail. Now I want to build a frame out of it!
Stainless bike frames are about as exotic as titanium. They might cost even more. Ti bikes are really nice as well. I may build one or the other some day when I perfect my tig welding skills.
You'll probably be looking at a custom built frame with such tubing. Such a frame might cost over $3k. I've got several steel and aluminum custom frames I've loved for decades. For lifelong lifestyle type riders who ride a whole lot of miles and keep their bikes a long time, there is no better value than custom made.
I agree, they definitely don't make them like they used to...... Besides these custom builders.
It sounds like we're close to the same age. My first 2 wheeler was a Stingray, and my first 'mtb' was a modified Varsity well before MTBs existed. I have an old Albert Eisentraut custom all road frame from way back. Albert was trained by his father in the original Schwinn Paramount factory in Chicago. He's trained many of today's top US frame builders. He trained Bruce Gordon, the guy who mentored Paul at Rock Lobster, who's built me a bunch of stuff. It's a small world.
There's a reason most of the production bike manufacturing is in Asia now. There's also a reason so many people believe marketing BS! QC is a joke on new production bikes and I can prove it. I've been learning to braze and weld my own frames. I'm also a retired machinist and mechanical inspector. Now I wrench in a high end bike shop for fun. Nobody's fooling me as to quality control or manufacturing process. We see lots of 'new bike junk' relegated to the dumpster. Some of it isn't cheap at all! Broken 'plastic' frames are a regular occurrence and Shimano is finally owning up to failed high end cranks after over 10 years of failures!
On the other hand, My 'old bike junk' just keeps rolling along. It's ironic.....
Bicycles (should be) the simple, reliable and affordable transportation that the vast majority of users worldwide truly 'need'. Mine certainly still are.
Local frame builder Stan Johnson closed shop in California, and offered a 753 Bianchi with Super Record that I wanted then and still to this day. For me Paramount, Specialize, and Trek steel with Suntour Superbe gave way to Guerciotti, Pinarello, and Colnago with Campagnolo. Simple meant 52/42 and 170 (eventually 175), 12-24 FW, and 36 spoke double butted DT, and downtube friction. Complex meant Italian threaded bottom brackets.
With direct to consumer, integrated cockpit, oversized and hidden everything my home mechanic shop is obsolete for anything post rim brake. I must applaud the Bike industry in catching up to the Aerospace industry. By over engineering and adding excessive complexity, bike consumerism is now worthy for the wealthiest! @@rollinrat4850
Obviously during covid people who never would have bought a bike, bought one. For full time cyclists like me (no car) this rush on the bike market sold out the entire supply. I had to struggle to keep a bike running with parts. Now all those people who bought bikes never use them, and they sit in their garage collecting dust.
Just getting in, been a few months … still getting better?
I find this video hilarious, for example Canyon just launched last week new refresh for Endurace bikes, just the higher end models SLX/CFR. And basically all SLX models which are about 4000-6000 euro or so, sold out in matter of days. Now it's back to "well check back around christmas" situation. Nothing is available at that price point (OR BELLOW!). And the CFR is just nonsense, I'm not paying 10000 for a bike. Is this just EU situation and US got cheap bikes or what am I missing here ?
Do most bike shops make their money from sales or service?
What does it look like to consider buying a 37 year established LBS with 5-star reviews across the board? The owner wants to retire and is selling his 3100 square foot shop turnkey ready, for $125k. He has about $93k of inventory, serving the road and gravel crowd. I noticed they have some old stock I probably don’t want and I feel I can negotiate a lower offer price. Is it a good idea to buy, or should I wait for his competition to drop off or can I take it to the next level by taking a niche approach?
93k of inventory now at msrp or at his original cost? big difference with all the deep discounts coming up.
@@RideOutSupply The $93k is dealer cost, not including tools and small parts.
The bike industry is not crashing the prices are gonna be up your ass for the next 20 years it's not gonna change. two months ago I purchased a vitus sentier vrs for Saram DB eight brakes and 34 for is that really worth $1600
The Trek $3,000 bicycle I have my eye on is not being discounted. ☹️
You have to go into a bike shop that has one in your size, and negotiate. I just bought one for $400 off of Treks online price. The bike shops are making deals that are better than online.
@@MountainAdventures1 ok, I will see what I can achieve. Thanks you.
🚴🏼🚴🏼🚴🏼
I got full carbon bike for $400
I could see this happening after COVID. Pretty obvious really. When the pandemic was happening in 2020 and in the UK people were working from home and you were only allowed to go outside for 30mins each day for exercise, even people who'd never ridden a bike wanted one as they needed something to do and could get around more on cycle rather than running or walking.
Now that the 'temp' cyclists are back to normal and going away on holidays, etc, etc, and others have lost interest in cycling as it's a lot harder than they thought at times (headwinds, etc) the manufacturers and dealers are suffering. I could see it was coming but the manufacturers/dealers were in a bubble thinking demand would outstrip supply forever. Plus a 'temp' cyclist won't be wanting to spend a small fortune on a bike upgrade when the one they have is sufficient for their needs.
I've been cycling regular for about 30 years and still have rim brakes on my roadie (but not on my Nukeproof Mega 290) 🤫
For sure...you bring up a lot of the points that we brought up in our initial video here. ua-cam.com/video/yFsc8g_p7IE/v-deo.html
@@Bike198 Haven't seen that but will watch it.
@@Bike198 Just watched it and said 'Exactly what I thought would happen when it was happening 🙃'. Just subscribed to ur channel!
People are not losing value on their bikes. Bikes are not an investment. They paid a premium to purchase a bike when bikes were scarce and they got to enjoy riding the bike during that time. They paid for what they wanted, which was a bike "now" while the rest of us were waiting for October to buy a bike.
GOOD !!! F'n serves them right when bicycles cost MORE than a used car .
There’s no “creeping bikes prices up” and there is no “market correction”, this is deflation of a non essential good. Nothing in economics, that isn’t an essential good, spirals down just for a while and never does it resumes at the baseline before the market collapsed. You can see that across all human decision making, which is what economy studies. When fertility rates dropped, it took more than a decade for that trend to stop and when it did, things resumed where they left after that drop; the same goes for religious affiliation, etc… Deflation is the mightiest hidden hand of the market, as Adam Smith might call it. Some brands are holding extra stock, enough to supply bikes or bike parts for 6 years at the current market demand and if, they had other options they wouldn’t have marked those prices down so aggressively. When you’re willing to sell at a break-even point or even at a loss, it’s when you know, you have no options left. Bikes aren’t a commodity required for the economy to function or humans to survive like oil. Oil might get its priced corrected, since everyone needs oil to live and do business, and the replacement options are close to 0. Bikes in the other hand, aren’t a necessity and they have plenty replacement options: scooters, cars, motorcycles, segways, etc… The bike companies are doomed, if they don’t find a way to produce bikes and sell them at half the price of what they charged during the pandemic era. I would recommend everyone to dig about the history of the guitar market, remember the Guitar Centers poping all around in the 90’s? Have you seen any lately? See the prices after inflation of guitars and how they dropped and then see how much the price has recovered.
give me some cheap framesets 😁
You can get anything you want on sale.
20% discount for top end bikes (10k and over) is irrelevant for the average individual cyclists.
Trek need to drop their prices....
Brought it on themselves with way over the top prices
It's the world of supply vs demand, nothing new there. And "yes" it's something that is predictable, but timing is key. Again, nothing new....
Cheap bikes are crap and good bikes are too expensive and people aren't buying bikes like they do smart phones ao this was inevitable
Fact is some people are bike snobs they don’t like riding they enjoy the biking bling , ha check out my new wheels it’s the latest bla bla I change my bike every year, please just buy a bike and ride it till it falls to bits , you may even save the planet instead of just talking about how green you are.
Perspective: The Honda CRF300 cost less than a top tier MTB.... The number one selling dual sport motorcycle in the world costs less...
That's not what I'm seeing in the used market prices have gone up
this has become a very expensive sport
Bicycles were and still are absurdetly overpriced!
So I still ride my old scooter.
I tried every possible bike category and there are only 3 that we actually need. Road, mtb, commuter.
Too bad disposable income for consumers is down.
Everything is struggling to sell due to the cost of living scandal
It’s known as greed
They are still way too expensive for what they actually are. Manufacturing processes have got more efficient, designs aren't changing as much as manufacturers would have you beleive. The industry is rigged and it's putting people off.
Even your 'it's good news for you' feels a bit of a fetch. New bikes mean new 'standards', new tools and more methods of being ripped off. 'Old' bikes with more servicable parts might be better news for consumers still. Altough the industry seems hell bent on killing off that part of the market too.
For what should be an affordable clean method of transport that encourages people to get fit... we are still heading in the wrong direction, even with a few discounts.
We already got new bikes for bargain prices
Ah ok so get a 29 inch bike for 5k or an almost as fast 26 old school for 500$ 😂🤣
Yeah over priced and in my case good bikes with very low quality parts. My 2023 Trek has no name brake calipers IO can't fine information anywhere.
You reap what you sow... poor bike industry. No empathy from this guy.
Everyone bought crazy in covid, bikes are 2 a penny, all fast made rubbish bearing covid bikes
Han sido unos ladrones avariciosos.
Ahora que intenten vivir del dinero robado. No me dan lastima.
dumb buyers are what drives prices up. idiots paying too much for something they don't need.
Well when they rip everybody off what do they expect.
Still overpriced even on sale...💲💲💲🤬🤬🤬