Patrick looks like the type of stand up guy who would tip his landlord. Or the type of guy who things unitedhealthcare ceo’s need to be protected and respected. Surely.
What happened in Hawaii will happen here. Hedge funds and venture capitalists and blackrock and other entities will just pay the land/home owners here a penny on the dollar and just rebuild and sell at insane costs or own and hold This is greed and corruption at its finest. And negligence and misappropriation of government funds at its finest (where water resources were not set aside to prepare to save this from escalating)
I'm a California registered professional Forester and 30 year Wildland Fire Manager. this is the most accurate report I've seen describing our fire hazard and related issues. Congratulations man truly masterful and I really appreciate your attention to detail.
In an interview yesterday, they pointed out the Eucalyptus trees have become an increasingly popular landscaping plants. They grow fairly fast and make very attractive plants. A former resident of the Pacific Palisades said the streets of the community were lined with them. They are very resinous trees that burn fierce and hot. Fire is also a part of their natural lifecycle, and they thrive in it. Possibly, one of the worst choices to plant in So Cal.
Joseph Banks, a British botanist in the 1700s, decided that Portugal was an ideal place to grow the Australian Eucalyptus trees. They not only catch fire easily, they explode and the embers fly 200 meters without ambient wind. So it beggars the imagination how far they go with the near hurricane force Santa Ana wind. These should be made illegal in areas such as Los Angeles. It's not unknown for cities to prohibit the planting of problematic species of trees.
We have a lot of Eucalyptus trees in Australia, they are native here. The leaves are full of oil which is highly flammable. They are literally a fire hazard
Speaking as an Australian, the only reason ever to plant eucalypts is if you have koalas. No koalas? Don't plant eucalypts. Being a beautiful tree is not an adequate reason to plant an arsonist somewhere that you could have planted literally any other tree.
Patrick, I learned more from your 21-minute video than I have from watching hours and hours of coverage and pages and pages of newspaper coverage here in the U.S. Thank you. And thank you also for the serious and compassionate tone you took here. Be well, sir.
As an Australian, I would suggest that all other countries replace their alien Gum Trees and Eucalyptus Trees. They were originally planted all around the world (including the USA), because they lose their lower branches as they grow, and were excellent "fire wood" trees - and you got a huge tree at the end. All that "ground litter", if not burned off in Winter (as Aussies do) will create wild-fires of immense destruction. The "Oil" in Gum Trees is another flammable woe. At least a cottage industry of collecting fallen branches is worthwhile.
I grew a few Eucalyptus trees from seed here in Scotland, as I was intrigued by the claims that it made excellent firewood. When my 5 year old Eucalyptus viminalis was killed by an unusually low -20C winter, I logged it for firewood and was amazed when a single log, about 9-10 inches diameter, burned for the whole day with quite a bit of ferocity. It makes a brilliant fuel, a little going a very long way - and for that reason, I really think it should not be grown anywhere where there is a high risk of wildfires. And I also agree that if it is, there should be a 'cottage industry' of collecting fallen branches, and probably even the fallen leaves/twigs as these burn really well too, and would be great in some sort of biomass heating system.
China has planted a lot of gum trees. They are hardy and grow relatively quickly with little water. Once the bushfires get into the canopy look out. That eucalyptus oil is super flammable.
@@animaxima8302it doesn't But its hard to build both non flammable and earthquake resistant structures. Honestly California is just not actually a suitable environment for the amount of people who live there. But they do live there, and now have the problem of trying to survive there.
I'm a Brit and lived in the Palisades area of LA for about 3 months in the late 1980s - working in the aerospace industry. Happy Days. I've watched most of your videos and find them to be excellent. But this one exceeded even your normal output. You are the first and only commentator to explain the cause of such extreme fires in January - the wet season, normally. I guessed at the Santa Anna winds, and recall how hot and strong they can be. Poor people I feel for them. Well done for another superb programme, keep 'em coming. Andrew Davidson Stevenage England
Daniel Swain, the climate scientist at UCLA that Patrick mentioned at the beginning of the video has the most comprehensive explanations of what's occurring currently, in California, and what's likely to be occurring across the globe. His breakdown of how the firestorms and fire-blizzards worked to decimate the LA area are both scary and educational. He spoke with Adam Conover on his channel yesterday, Neil deGrasse Tyson on his channel two days ago and he has detailed explanations of what's occurring over on his own channel, Weather West.
There is a title to a bluegrass song, "Don't go where corn don't grow." Don't go where the insurance companies won't sell a homeowners policy for Wild Fire.
@@dmitripogosian5084 This particular UA-cam podcast seems to answer 99% of my questions about Fire Insurance (and the lack thereof). Is this guy the Ed Witten of finance?the "new" Warren Buffet.? The UA-cam channel was listed among other sources. I clicked with temerity. A generation ago, he might be complimented as being able to "read the tea leaves". Now, he would be complimented as someone who "spills the tea". (I hope that I used "temerity" correctly!) Los Angeles, build back better!! Today, a wildfire, tomorrow, an earthquake. Tornadoes have destroyed cities. Floods have destroyed cities. Thank God that L.A. is not a battleground. Not a combat zone like Ukraine, Gaza, etc. Californians, recall elections for Mayor Karen Bass and Governor Gavin Newsom. Put Republicans into the state capitol in Sacramento in the house and senate. Change the regulatory policies that defeat progress - shaking down developers like the Mafia is alleged to do. Flip Los Angeles county to RED in the 2028 U.S. Presidential General Election. Separate Los Angeles County from the State of California as a "Sanctuary" region. Dale Bumpers was elected the Governor of Arkansas by defeating the incumbent governor, Winthrop Rockefeller. Bumper's first action was to implement the plan of the former Governor Rockefeller. Bumpers said "there was blood on the floor."
well, have you been reading actuarial reports from insurance companies in recent years? it won't be too long before they won't sell house insurance anywhere you'd want to live because of climate change associated risks. and folks have been warning about that for a very long time, but the response has always just been either shrugs or outright denial of the problem
@@ItWasSaucerShaped Imagine building back better.? Imagine new construction techniques (actually ancient techniques) with non-flammable natural materials and utilizing passive technology of heating/cooling.? There is a "natural" outdoor air-conditioning of the evaporation of a fine mist. It is used in summer outdoor entertainment venues. Imagine equipping the exterior of a structure with this misting system (assuming available water). Every commercial structure is mandated to have an interior fire sprinkler system. This misting system could be an exterior fire sprinkler system. Finally, the idea of the desalination of the ocean water must be reviewed to insure available water. Seasonal rainfall can be "harvested'" by building many more dams and reservoirs in the uninhabited chaparrals. I lived in southern California from 1978 until 1989. I remember a house that "disappeared" in a flash flood. First, it was there. Years later, it was gone without a trace. I asked and was told a flash flood was responsible. Imagine providing an alternate source of freshwater to the chlorination treatment facilities.
I've lived in So Cal all my life and whenever the Santa Ana winds blow here, we all experience a heightened sense of anxiety and go into "fire watch" mode. This time it was different. For the winds to blow 50-80mph in the midst of winter, there was a "feeling" in the air that something terrible was about to take place. When reports came in of fire, reality sank in pretty quick that this wasn't going to be just another wildfire. All anyone had to do was take a step outside in the winds and know that it would be a nearly impossible battle.
The videos of the wind generated ember storms are beyond horrific. I’m getting very bored with the well meaning suggestions that Los Angeles merely needs to use seawater. Some folks are making a big thing about the lack of water pressure. The fact is, it wouldn’t have mattered because this fire spread so quickly. By the time seawater pumps might have been realistically used, the fire was already across PCH. One channel that has been very useful in covering the fires in Palisades and Altadena is The Lookout. Zeke knows what he’s talking about. Go check it out, it might help you counter the misinformation and misunderstandings about the L.A. fires. Zeke was a professional fire mapper. He’s based in Chico. He understands very well the fuel situation in So Cal. I have two friends that were evacuated from their neighborhood in west Altadena. Their neighborhood and house was spared because the vegetation on two sides got burned in the Station Fire. The fire scar from that fire probably saved their house.
That's exactly how it felt for me a few years ago when the Almeda fire in Ashland Oregon happened. We could all feel there was something different in the air, and when we saw the smoke a few hundred feet from our front door it was as if the whole world was collapsing in on itself. We were lucky to be spared, but so many in our community weren't. By the next day 80% of the Phoenix school district's kids were homeless. It is a horror I hope to never experience again.
Seen a Vid. explaining that the resavore above Palisades was drained 14 months earlier to repair a ripe in the vinyl cover ( to keep the water clean for drinking)is why there wasn’t enough water . A $13,000 repair. Allso a couple of pranksters posted a vid. on X about them being ( on film ) at the seen of the Palisade fire when it ( they) started .
But theoretically less of a risk than if they’d been blowing in summer time? Not quite sure why Santa Ana’s blowing “out of season” makes fire a higher risk? Is it because residents, the utilities & LAFD are at a lower level of preparedness in winter? I live deep in an “Extreme Fire Risk” hills environment (very similar to the Palisades) inland from Perth, Western Australia, surrounded on all sides by mature 150ft tall eucalyptus and undergrowth that all emits highly flammable vapours. The whole ecosystem is reliant on occasional fire. The dry leaves that the trees continuously shed in summer (now) are like fire-lighters! There are very strict requirements for firebreaks, keeping vegetation below a certain height, clearance of overhanging boughs, and the fire response capability (I believe) is only reduced in winter by not having locally positioned 737 sized water bombers. How does that compare to the Palisades situation?
State Farm didn't cancel polices, they sent out non-renewal notices months in advance, so that homeowners could get other insurance before the normal expiration date of their policies. It's the difference between "I'm evicting you now" and "I'm not renewing your lease 6 months from now."
Totally correct. And as a State Farm policy holder, I am glad they were paying attention to all of the warning signs. And just to cut off the silly argument about "profits", State Farm doesn't make profits.
Yep. Insurance is alk about risk. In California companies aren't allowed to actually charge the increasea that would keep the risk manageable for insurance companies, so insurance companies need to move out once their current policies expire. If anything it is California's own fault for regulating the industry in a way it is impossible to even break even in that area
@@kcgunesq😂😂😂 state farms does not make profits is the dumbest most ignorant shit o have heard in a year... not every uneducated brainfart should be posted my guy 🤡🤦🏻♂️
@@kcgunesq State Farm is an interesting business. They lose money on insurance but make it back in investments. If they don’t want to insurance you the risk must be REALLY high.
I’m still recovering from Katrina and that was over 15 years ago. I was in a hurry to get back to my place and when they let me go back there was nothing but a slab left. I was in a hurry for nothing because there was nothing to go back to. I moved 187 miles north to my grandmother’s old $60,000 house it was practically falling down. I’m still there. Insurance in Biloxi below I-10 is as high or higher than the total payment was before Katrina. That’s why I left.
My wife and I were just talking about the insurance situation post fire and your video gave me a much better handle on the current situation and its causes. You're giving me and others out here some answers in time of stress and anxiety. Thank you bro.
I heard someone that saved their house and their adjacent neighboring homes describe and compared the ember storm they were in like it was a hail storm.
The Red Cross should be clearer about their fundraising. After 9/11, they faced major criticism when donations meant for attack victims were diverted to other programs. Now with the LA wildfires, the linked fundraiser doesn't clearly state if donations are actually restricted to wildfire relief or if they're just using the disaster to raise general funds. They should be transparent about whether money goes specifically to helping wildfire victims or if it goes into their general budget. Organizations shouldn't use disasters as marketing for unrestricted fundraising without being upfront about it. The lack of clear information about how our donations will be used makes it hard to trust that the money will directly help the people affected by these wildfires.
I was so happy to see your video. I knew there was an insurance crisis in CA, but I really didn't understand the details and background of it. Thank you so much for your informative video and everything you do!
@4:50 that was an eye-opener for me when I saw that as well. Along hwy 1, pch, those houses are 2-lanes plus 2-shoulder-widths away from the other side that was burning. The fact the flames jumped all those neighborhoods, fire-breaks, roads was scary to see as a SoCal resident myself.
I'm a senior claims professional for a large insurer in California. I found this report to be remarkably accurate, particularly regarding the ability of private insurers to cover catastrophes such as this, the legal constraints that constrain and even prevent insuring in fire danger zones, and even the mention of the costs of litigation and laws that provide windfalls to attorneys who bring suit. Litigation costs are a major factor in insurance cost and availability in California (and apparently Florida), where a single suit for a single family or plaintiff can bring in hundreds of thousands to the law firm. This money has to come from somewhere.
Great. You just explained even further why insurance, at least this private insurance, isn't effective and is actually obsolete. Maybe our tax dollars should be insuring our selves for these horrid events, even an individual random house fire? And maybe we pay for it adjusted for what we own appraised value? I mean, most of the time a state declares an emergency and if the state and/or Federal government lends aid, those transfer dollars typically don't go directly to the people to recover, but rather they backstop the insurance companies to ensure those who purchased insurance actually get their claims paid. It's sort of a can't lose scam with insurance. Same thing happens with medical and disability insurance. If it becomes long term to where the person can get on SSI or Medicaid, anything the insurance company paid out during the back payment SSI and/or Medicaid grants, is recovered by the insurance company, turning them into just a fronting the cash sort of company; they never actually draw down reserves those claims. So cut out the middle man. Which is obviously ineffective. It's why nations developed fire services or fire departments instead of offering "fire insurance" policies, that were hysterically funny episodes in London's great fires, or even small fires, when customers of various fire service insurance accidently went to the wrong fire house company, or the proof of purchase was left in the house being burned, thus couldn't produce proof of coverage thus no fire fighters to help put out he fire. Private insurance is basically a scam. At the fairest, it's obsolete bullshit.
The Santa Ana Winds are also "katabatic" whereby they heat up from flowing down in elevation. And they came hot and dry off the Mohave Desert to start with-
Why the hell would anyone want to rebuild in a region that has become so prone to fire damage that no insurers would want to cover? It's financial suicide.
For the same reason people build frontline beach properties that they know won’t last. The US heavily subsidizes this behavior through things like FEMA. If it’s your only house, you’re screwed because government is slow, but if you have other places to live you’ll get a new house pretty much for free. Stossel has even complained that it’s ridiculous that he is *making money* from that, because he gets a new house built with tax money and the value of his property actually increases!
@@mforgetteable Okay, now what about the earthquakes? Putting the cost of those materials aside, it's a choice between engineering for fire-resistance or quake-resistance. Would you rather your cheap house burned to the ground or your not-so-cheap house collapsed on top of you? That's the trade-off California is stuck with. It's a coastal desert on a major fault line. There is no simple solution here, especially if the ultra-wealthy pricks who lived in the area still want their maids, chauffeurs, and personal chefs; can't have employees if the employees can't live.
as a survivor of hurricanes 🌀 it takes a long long long time to return to work and that’s if you’re not scrambling to find housing and the restaurant or business wasn’t damaged; which most are its been three years since ian and some are just getting work done and businesses are just now kinda back in order but it is taking an incredibly long time rebuilding after hurricane charley in 04 things came back way quicker but noticed it’s getting harder and responses to storms lesser as the years go by
@@Nordic_SkyCalifornia has an insurance of last resort. The state will always cover you, it's just expensive. It is call the California Fair Plan if you wanted to look into it.
I live and colorado and know someone who is studying wildfire management. She has said that alot of wildfires are made worse by privately owned land owners refusing to/ not knowing how to/ or not having the money to do controled burns on their properties. In the past she had a job where she went to private land owners and tried to convince them to do conroled burns on their land. Trying to convince a tree farm to burn their land sounded like pulling teeth. I feel bad for the people who have lost everything to this fire.
This fire backed onto public forested land, not private. Although there is a history of fire suppression on public lands (and this history should be put under VERY heavy scrutiny, as it is most certainly wrongheaded and proximately contributory to recent fire intensity), this is not the cause here.
California stopped allowing proper fire breaks and woodland management decades ago. Fish, mice and weeds get priority. This was a conscious and deliberate decision. Only now are voters starting to understand the downside of this choice.
There's a company in Australia that sells bushfire supression systems, they are like oversized sprinklers and the system is powered by a diesel pump. They are both on and around the house. I'd imagine the system is substantially cheaper than building a new house.
"Mechanical thinning", from my experience, usually makes fire danger worse, not better. The benefits may be evident for only 1-2 years, or the year following can be immediately worse in terms of flammability. It depends on the vegetation type its invasibility by highly flammable Old-World origin weedy grasses. Controlled burns can also make the situation worse. Environmental reviews are slow, but from my experience they do not take "five years". The wild vegetation forming most of the wildland-urban interface in the LA area is mostly chaparral, which can't be thinned. No matter what you do, short of paving over it, it grows back densely and with high flammability. That's the nature of chaparral, there's no escaping that fact. The important matter to be dealt with here is the building of housing in that wildland interface. It's not the right thing to do, no matter how much people desire to live in such environments. I've done a lot of work as a botanist on federal and state lands in the US and their equivalents in Canada. Vegetation is extremely complex and there are very few people who know how it works. I'm horrified to hear non-experts simplify it down to falsehoods and over-simplicity. Expertise in vegetation and its management is at least as important as expertise in financial matters. I shouldn't advise on finances, and financial experts shouldn't advise on environmental policy.
So true but people prefer to listen to politicians, people in finance, sociology... All the current environmental issues have been forecasted in the sixties if not before.
"I'm horrified to hear non-experts simplify it down to falsehoods and over-simplicity. " Claims the self appointed "expert" botanist who argues that mechanical thinning and controlled burns actually increase wildfire risk despite being utilised almost all over the world by (real) expert foresters.
900$ a square foot minimum. Even for simple houses. This is fact in California. New sewer, upgraded foundation, hella insulation, ev charging, solar panels, heat pumps, new fire suppression system, high efficiency tempered glass windows, sustainable non flammable materials,…etc….. This is much more expensive than some would say.
My mother lives in Augusta, GA, and she was affected by Hurricane Helene, so this one hit home for me. She suffered property damage to home and automobile. We avoided having to declare it “totaled” and unlike a few, we avoided the worst structural damage to the house itself. Some of the back got trashed but we avoided it being a lot worse.
As an economist, you explained this well, outlining CA's system of perverse incentives, their free-rider problem, and third party costs due to gov't interference in the market. Well done.
I don't like how people think a 30 million dollar home will cost 30 million dollars to rebuild. Just because the plot is worth a lot doesnt mesn the house is
You are thinking like a poor person. The content inside a 30 million dollar home is worth a lot more than the house itself. Imagine the guy having a Pagani, and couple of Bugattis, and then a fine wine collection, an art collection, not to mention a lot of luxury clothes and furniture.
@@lionrock2023most of those people don’t own anything like that. 90% of those homes are full of people who can barely afford their payments. I know five people who lived there and ALL of them only moved there because their wives pushed it. They are all living out of their means and buy everything at IKEA.
@@ChadDidNothingWrong he is talking specifically about a 30 million dollar home, which is what I was responding to. a guy with a 30 million dollar home is basically a billionaire or is very close to being one. people who own a 5 million dollar home, are generally worth easily north of 30 million dollar, and they can be expected to have nice things inside their homes as well.
Anyone that was paying attention could, and did predict this. It isn't coincidence that State Farm and others started dropping coverage where they did.
@@SusCalvinSure have, but also in other states insurers are able to properly rate the risk if they stay, the state insurance commissioner in CA until this disaster has prohibited insurers from taking the correct rate by such practices as denying reinsurance cost being included in the premium and the use of modeling for assessing future risk. If the science says you should pay $3500 a year based on the many factors that go into determining the risk, but CA will only allow $1500, what is an insurer supposed to do, eat that kind of money per property and not have enough on the books to pay out in a major disaster? Logically you would not write new business and non-renew policies in the state under such conditions.
@@ThirdCydonian It would mean there is suddenly an increasing, measurable cost instead of a world where you can juggle a risk while pretending it does not exist. I don't know how much more insurance premiums US households can take on, like how much of your wage goes to insurances. For me, that cost is carried partly by my tax bill, and a mix of insurances with a few more state systems. It's still a cost, but spread over a larger collective.
Patrick, can you do a video on the insurance companies pulling out of Florida in response to the recent hurricanes? I would love to learn more about the industry.
@@colleenpeck6347 Florida also has a government associated insurer of last resort, and they're the primary insurer in a lot of places there. It's called Citizens Property Insurance, and a year ago DeSantis commented that it's "not solvent", which is not a surprise at all. I figure these systems will ultimately be subsidized by the federal government when disasters hit. It's quite interesting that given the political disparity between these 2 states, they have such a similar insurance situation. That fact is on full display when one or the other needs to cash in.
I'm hearing that all California home owners (including those, like me, who live in areas where there is very low fire risk) will be charged some new fees to help cover all the insurance losses. My home insurance has already skyrocketed in price the last 3 years even though I am in very low risk area -- and now it sounds like I'll be charged this new fee on top of that.
Excellent analysis of the effect on the insurers, Patrick! As a suggestion, please consider a similar discussion of the effect of the Palisades and Eaton fires on lenders. Those homes and other structures which had loans against them most certainly had loans against them from banks, credit unions and other lenders, necessitating impairment charges which may be in excess of current loss allowances. Consequently, the effect of fire losses will have a "ripple effect" on the value of the loan collateral and may necessitate larger loan loss provisions. The effect of larger loan loss provisions will have a direct and negative effect on regulatory capital for those lenders.
This video really hit the nail on the head for the insurance issues, but I think you should have also touched on the immense market distortions caused by California’s draconian zoning codes, which prevent cities like LA from building denser housing in the city itself and instead force development out into the woodlands and drive up the prices (and thus insurance losses) for houses.
In short State Farm and Farmers paid attention, noticed how bad things where getting, decided to let every policy in California expire because they couldn't change premiums... and everyone gets to 'enjoy' the results. Yeah, Californian leaders dropped the ball hard; it would have been impossible to halt all fires but maybe they could have done something to mitigate this disaster.
Home insurance in Texas is beginning to see similar problems brewing. Claims from hurricanes along the gulf coast, tornadoes in north central Texas and fires to the west and panhandle have all increased as housing has grown and the climate has worsened.
Literally no change has occurred. Why pick Texas to make shit up about when in older communities in the midwest insured value can be three times what the house trades for?
Are the US states using different insurance systems and insurance regulations? It's like watching people juggle a cost they pretend does not exist between them.
@@SusCalvin there was a supreme court case almost 100 years ago that determined it was not a federal matter. Every state has different rules. I worked for an insurance company doing underwritting and agency services. We used to say California was like another country and Texas was like another planet, when it came to how they were regulated. The rules are very different to most other states in both.
I wonder if these areas will start to look like trailer parks, since residents won't be able to afford to replace their custom houses. They're going to want to move back ASAP. Every trailer-able house available is going to get snatched up. It seems so obvious.
These areas need to adopt building codes similar to Australia's Bush Fire Code. It would be insanity to rebuild any of these houses outside of this code. It will be more expensive for sure, but it's the only way to avoid doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
Building codes were updated in the 90s. I'm not sure how they compare to Australia's. Regardless though older homes won't have been built to the modern codes.
I worked in the re-insurance over 30 years ago. At that time many London based re-insurers would go nowhere near Florida based companies as most were run by hooligans. Never heard those people complain about California in those days of Reagan etc. The interference in the insurance industry and re-insurers seems totally counter productive, as most government interference is in a very competitive industry.
On a positive note, building to the current California building code will help mitigate the wildfire risk in these areas. Unfortunately, these neighborhoods won’t look as unique as they did before the fires PS - The Gelson's Market in Pacific Palisades, California was destroyed by the Palisades Fire in January 2025. The store had a huge parking lot, doubt any new building will waste that much real estate on parking. Probably will be replaced by a huge mixed use development with underground parking surrounded by multistory apartments or condominiums
People need to listen to insurance companies more. Their job is literally to predict the future. If an insurance company pulls out of your state, you should take that as a sign, not demonize them.
Lot of People don't give a damn about climate change and later suffer from extreme weather that cause more severe natural disaster and still said climate change is nonsense so what are you expect from them in that matter? viz. they don't care about strange water current get more hotter and mess how weather in each year aka El Nino and la Nina and when they fk up rant to government and at the same time still elect people who didn't give a give a damn about climate change too. This year in California is in El Nino phase so they (people and gov.) have to prepare it beforehand but biggest problem in this disaster was privatize fire department and not give damn on anything except extract the money and here by now they got big slap in their face with this fire disaster can be less suffer compare what happen right now.
@@Florklit sort of is, but also in many cases you are literally forced to get insurance. Like where I live it's a penalizable crime not to have 2 different types of insurance and if you mortgage your home the bank also forces you to get insurance for that too. So it's a damned if you do and damned if you don't because everyone who makes the rules is just trying to rig the game to scam as much money out of you as possible, including the consumers who rarely have controlling influence but have the numbers to be annoying forever with all the crazy stuff they believe and try to pull Everyone is a clown because we live I a circus
Insurance companies have teams of people and AI to measure risk on an ongoing basis. They very prudently concluded that these areas in California could only be insured at much greater premiums. The state of California forbade these price increases. So the insurance companies, being for-profit businesses, elected to not renew many policies in these areas. Don't blame the insurance companies. Blame the state of California for not mitigating fire risk for at least 10 distinct reasons.
these insurance companies control the cali state insurance board. They control which companies can insure. This isnt remotely a fucking free market and never has been. Cant wait til youre grovelling and whining 4 years from now when you and patrick get your dream of an absolutely unregulated corporate state and you cant afford to live indoors
And to some extent the residents have to take some blame. There’s a hundred different things you can do to make your house more fire resistant. Everything from choosing different materials to installing your own firefighting systems. Anyone who has a pool should have their own roof sprinkler system with a pump and generator ready to go. Best wildfire insurance you’ll ever get, for a few grand.
3:10 Something similar happened last year to the railway line through Keighley (Albeit without the dry year element) where two wet years meant the trees had grown faster than the railway staff could cut them back and one tree got close enough to the overhead wires to attract an arc that boiled the moisture out of the tree and then exploded it starting a fire that damaged the railway. It was captured on camera by a local resident, and extraordinary thing to watch.
@@jackprier7727 Mandating dash cams that look back along the truck and trailer would help. A big truck hardly feels the effect of one failed wheel until the suspension drags on the ground. This can be miles. I have seen numerous truck and trailer fires in Australia, by the time the driver is aware, all he can do is uncouple the tractor unit and drive far enough to not go up as well. If we spotted black smoke, we would drive a rescue vehicle until we found it, too late then for extinguishing.
@@jackprier7727 Yeah but dude probably didn't think some sparks from his wheel would spark a wildlife, and he probably didn't lose his wheel on purpose either.
The Santa Ana winds as Bob Dylan put it, are the Winds of the apocalypse. I experienced them once, I went from a beautifully Pleasant night to fleeing to get to my car because the wind picked up so fast and so suddenly and debris was flying everywhere.
Like in Florida, the hurricane force winds aren't that bad a couple of times a year. Unfortunately, most insurance companies gave left. We are only left with expensive ones that we have to beg to cover us. Even if they make us get a new roof prior to coverage.
Best to avoid building in areas where Santa Ana like winds are an issue. People want to live in vulnerable areas, so it comes with risk. I’ll never understand why people insist on living in areas with constant yearly hurricanes, floods, n fires. Every year it’s the same thing, while some years are worse, like this fire, n hurricanes we had in other states. Some areas should not be inhabited, no matter how nice n pretty it is to live there, but I guess some think it’s worth the risk.
@@jasminek5557if you remove everywhere with risks of fore and flood and hurricanes, should probabaly add earthquakes and tsunamis, thre aren't really alot of places left. Almost everywhere you choose to live has a risk of natural disaster of some form or another. You just have to calculate the risks and try to build to mitigate them. And hope they don't get worse because of something outside of your control, like climate change.
@Skantezz I love California it's so beautiful here. We have mountains red woods, beaches, Yosemite, etc. But if it keeps getting so expensive I just might have to sell my house and GTFO. Such a pity.
I live in east coast, with no fires, no hurricanes or any weather issues, yet my insurance went up about 15 percent this year, which includes home n car insurance. Insurance is not going up only because of these disasters, but because of bad policies n leadership too. All insurance has gone up, with disaster prone areas slightly more.
@@jasminek5557I live in PA, got notice my 300k home insurance is going up $90 this year. So going to make the phone calls money and read policies. Getting tired of having to pay for disaster and high crime areas.
Very informative and much appreciated. I am an east coast architect and have visited the Santa Monica Mountains, several times and am familiar with its enormous natural beauty and desirability of its south slope canyons and ridges as building sites for some of the most expensive and exclusive residential building sites in America over the past century. I am also familiar with the fascinating behavior of fire in this region. Speaking metaphorically, what I am seeing is a situation where an entire region has allowed itself to build an enormous series of hi-rise buildings out of stick framing and full of combustible materials. Every floor is privately owned and its fire resistant is managed solely by the homeowner. There are non-combustible stair towers with standpipes (streets and canyon roads) but little else in the way of water-based fire protection or means of multi-hour fireproof compartmentalization (fire breaks). The Chicago Fire of 1871 led to many reformer in urban planning and construction of urban areas as well as changes is firefighting. The history of fire-safety is a long saga of “lessons learned” from expensive and tragic conflagrations. January 2025 may be Los Angeles and California’s “Chicago Fire”. I will say that in the end, it seems like a miracle that the death toll has been so low. I believe the death toll for Pacific Palisades has been 16. In the end, it should be noted that the primary directive of firefighting is saving LIVES.
I hope against hope that they don't rebuild with wood. The CA government needs to step up and subsidize the difference for building with brick and cement so that LA is built back better
@HenryJames-q6t I think it'd be the best way to foster a properly regulated reconstruction without placing undue burden on people that just lost their homes.
@ But it's not an "undue" burden. It's their house. They bought it. They benefit from it. Why socialize their loss? Why do the rest of us have to pay for?
Unfortunately that area is next to the San Andreas fault, so prone to earthquakes too. Concrete and brick structures are terrible during earthquakes and will collapse. Earthquakes are much more deadly than fires because you don't have time to evacuate from an earthquake. I think they should build steel frame houses with foam concrete walls that are not structural. That would withstand both earthquakes and fires.
I keep seeing people use this as an opportunity to hate on insurance companies, and while I can sympathize and also find plenty of reasons to hate them too, I keep trying to point out that there is a massive difference between an insurance company weaseling out of paying a claim, vs them outright refusing to insure you at all. It's like going to a self defense company and getting angry at them because they won't sell you a protective vest so you can take a round from a tank
Yeah, I think a lot of it is that people conflate property insurance with health insurance, and while there are a lot of similar practices and principles involved, they are pretty different beasts, since people are virtually gauranteed to make claims in health insurance, while property insurance claims are few and far between, outside disasters like this. Legal Eagle's recent video comments were full of a lot of garbage. Patrick's viewers seem a lot more aware of what they do and don't know about insurance.
Even if they got their "non-profit scenario", at a minimum an insurance company would need to take in billions of dollars from other policy holders just to pay rebuild costs for this catastrophe alone.
In Denver, my home insurance has tripled in eleven years. Property tax has doubled. Essential services and infrastructure are deteriorating. Need I mention that the front rage frequently experiences fires fanned by the equivalent of Santa Ana winds.
'$1M house on $2M land' The knowledge that a house burnt on that site, probably drops the land value to near zero, and there is no insurance cover for that.
I know you're a big fan of large corporations, but the reality is, no insurance company is going to insure places like LA during the current crisis. It's not a regulation issue: it's simply that the return isn't high enough to make these risks worth it.
It used to be that fire insurance covers 100% of replacement cost not value of the structure. So it doesn't matter what the materials cost. The insurance is going to replace the structure.
Many had their fire insurance cancelled in recent months, or increased from ~$5000 to around ~$20,000 --- that's why so many were uninsured. They couldn't afford it.
Insurance does cover 100% of the replacement cost, up to a certain dollar value. The key is that you have to keep that dollar value above the cost it would be to actually replace it. The big issue with that as well is the cost to replace it is different if your house burns down because of a house fire and multiple neighborhoods burned down because of a wildfire. Supply and demand will throw the cost curve way out and suddenly what is enough to rebuild for a single incident becomes no longer enough to rebuild now that so many people are affected. Similar to rental costs for those displaced.
depends on your insurance.. which depends on your state insurance board.. which is governed by the insurance companies. i have replacement insurance in nc
which is total B.S. for someone outside the area to have to pay for. And L.A. voters are responsible for electing an unqualified black women as mayor, a subject no one is willing to talk about.
@@DesignRhythm Unlike many ecosystems, regular controlled burns are not what the plant life here evolved to and expects to happen. Patrick touches on this at 4:40. Patrick also said that they'd mechanically thinned over 500,000 acres in this specific area in 2024. It's just never gonna be enough because this type of biome is characterized by very infrequent, but large fires and long periods of regrowth. It's called a Chaparral biome. The answer is to just not build structures in wooded areas in this biome, as the natural fire cycle does not jibe with human settlement. Humans are just stubborn though, and are bad at exercising restraint around cycles that are measured in terms of several decades.
@ Ah yes, more excuses. Funny, the Santa Ana winds have been around for millenia, but LA doesn't lose 12,000+ homes every year, why is that? Did u know the homeless started over 13,000 fires in 2024 and were over 50% of the FD's calls? If fire was so imminent, why did Gavin + Bass cut the budget? Why was the 2nd largest reservoir (117,000,000 gallons) EMPTY during an anticipated windstorm fire warming? Why were private owners able to save property with garden hoses? Why was Caruso able to save his malls?Why did it take 44 minutes to make it to the 1st call? Why only send out 5 of 40 fire engines the 1st day? Why not have them work a 2nd shift? Why not call in other help before the expected fires? Why didn't these fires happen everywhere in LA? Why did the mayor leave AFTER the warnings?
@neilkurzman4907 it is well known in the United States that the red cross is a for-profit blood donation system masquerading as an aid organization. Donate your money to local organizations on the ground in LA.
@ So you think there’s one worldwide, Red Cross ? Each country has their own. And it’s not an international corporation. In fact that the Muslim world, it’s the red Crescent
Thanks to our growing list of Patreon Sponsors and Channel Members for supporting the channel. www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance : Paul Rohrbaugh, Douglas Caldwell, Greg Blake, Michal Lacko, Dougald Middleton, David O'Connor, Douglas Caldwell, Carsten Baukrowitz, Robert Wave, Jason Young, Ness Jung, Ben Brown, yourcheapdate, Dorothy Watson, Michael A Mayo, Chris Deister, Fredrick Saupe, Winston Wolfe, Adrian, Aaron Rose, Greg Thatcher, Chris Nicholls, Stephen, Joshua Rosenthal, Corgi, Adi, maRiano polidoRi, Joe Del Vicario, Marcio Andreazzi, Stefan Alexander, Stefan Penner, Scott Guthery, Luis Carmona, Keith Elkin, Claire Walsh, Marek Novák, Richard Stagg, Heinrich, Edgar De Sola, Sprite_tm, Wade Hobbs, Julie, Tom, Andre Michel, MrLuigi1138, Daniel Soderberg, Noel Kurth, Simon Crosby, Gary Yrag, Sebastian, Charles, C.J. Christie, Daniel, Tim Jamison, Sam Freed,Mike Farmwald, DaFlesh, Michael Wilson, Peter Weiden, Adam Stickney, Agatha DeStories, Suzy Maclay, scott johnson, Jonathan Metter, freebird, Alexander E F, Forrest Mobley, lee beville, Fernanda Alario, William j Murphy, Atanas Atanasov, Maximiliano Rios, WhiskeyTuesday, Callum McLean, Christopher Lesner, Ivo Stoicov, William Ching, Georgios Kontogiannis, D F CICU, JAG, Pjotr Bekkering, Nesh Hassan, Brainless, Ziad Azam, Ed, Artiom Casapu, Eric Holloman, ML, Meee, Paul McCourt, Simon Bone, Alan Medina, Fly Girl, james brummel, Jessie Chiu, M G, Martin Dráb, eliott, Bill Walsh, Stephen Fotos, Brian McCullough, Sarah, Jonathan Horn, steel, Brian W Bush, James Hoctor, Eduardo, Jay T, Claude Chevroulet, Davíð Örn Jóhannesson, storm, Janusz Wieczorek, D Vidot, Christopher Boersma, Stephan Prinz, Norman A. Letterman, georgejr, Keanu Thierolf, Jeffrey, Matthew Berry, pawel irisik, Chris Davey, Michael Jones, Ekaterina Lukyanets, Scott Gardner, Viktor Nilsson, Paul Hilscher, Eric, Larry, Lukas Braszus, hyeora,Swain Gant, Kirk Naylor-Vane, Earnest Williams, Subliminal Transformation, Kurt Mueller, KoolJBlack, MrDietsam, Shaun Alexander, Angelo Rauseo, Bo Grünberger, Henk S, Okke, Michael Chow, Andrew Backer, Olivia Ney, Zachary Tu, Andrew Price, Alexandre Mah, Jean-Philippe Lemoussu, Gautham Chandra, Heather Meeker, Daniel Taylor, Nishil, Nigel Knight, gavin, Arjun K.S, Louis Görtz, Jordan Millar, Molly Carr,Joshua, Shaun Deanesh, Eric Bowden, Felix Goroncy, helter_seltzer, Zhngy, lazypikachu23, Compuart, Tom Eccles, AT, Adgn, STEPHEN INGRA, Clement Schoepfer, M, A M, Dave Jones, Julien Leveille, Piotr Kłos, Chan Mun Kay, Kirandeep Kaur, Jacob Warbrick, David Kavanagh, Kalimero, Omer Secer, Yura Vladimirovich, Alexander List, korede oguntuga, Thomas Foster, Zoe Nolan, Mihai, Bolutife Ogunsuyi, Old Ulysses, Mann, Rolf-Are Åbotsvik, Erik Johansson, Nay Lin Tun, Genji, Sean Wheeler, Tom, Артем Мельников, Matthew Loos, Jaroslav Tupý, The Collier Report, Sola F, Rick Thor, Denis R, jugakalpa das, vicco55, vasan krish, DataLog, Johanes Sugiharto, Mark Pascarella, Gregory Gleason, Browning Mank, lulu minator, Mario Stemmann, Christopher Leigh, Michael Bascom, heathen99, Taivo Hiielaid, TheLunarBear, Scott Guthery, Irmantas Joksas, Leopoldo Silva, Henri Morse, Tiger, Angie at Work, francois meunier, Greg Thatcher, justine waje, Chris Deister, Peng Kuan Soh, Justin Subtle, John Spenceley, Gary Manotoc, Mauricio Villalobos B, Max Kaye, Serene Cynic, Yan Babitski, faraz arabi, Marcos Cuellar, Jay Hart, Petteri Korhonen, Safira Wibawa, Matthew Twomey, Adi Shafir, Dablo Escobud, Vivian Pang, Ian Sinclair, doug ritchie, Rod Whelan, Bob Wang, George O, Zephyral, Stefano Angioletti, Sam Searle, Travis Glanzer, Hazman Elias, Alex Sss, saylesma, Jennifer Settle, Anh Minh, Dan Sellers, David H Heinrich, Chris Chia, David Hay, Sandro, Leona, Yan Dubin, Genji, Brian Shaw, neil mclure, Jeff Page, Stephen Heiner, Tadas Šubonis, Adam, Antonio, Patrick Alexander, Greg L, Paul Roland Carlos Garcia Cabral, NotThatDan, Diarmuid Kelly, Juanita Lantini, Martin, Julius Schulte, Yixuan Zheng, Greater Fool, Katja K, neosama, Shivani N, HoneyBadger, Hamish Ivey-Law, Ed, Richárd Nagyfi, griffll8, Oliver Sun, Soumnek, Justyna Kolniak, Devin Lunney, Jan Kowalski, Roberta Tsang, Shuo Wang, Joe Mosbacher, Mitchell Blackmore, Cameron Kilgore, Robert B. Cowan, Nora, Rio.r, Rod, George Pennington, Sergiu Coroi, Eric Lee, Martin Kristiansen, Gamewarrior010, Allan Lindqvist, Kamil Kraszewski, Jaran Dorelat, Po, riseofgamer, Dean Tingey, Safira, Frederick, Binary Split, Todd Howard’s Daddy, David A Donovan, K, Christopher McVey, kat, Todd Weatherhead, Minde chenrezig, Ulug Bey, Ian Godsey, Daniel Meier, Shay Rojansky, Edward Paxon Frady, Elliott Short, Cold Binterp, Cameron Raynor, Dana W, Filip Rolenec, David, Jacob, Kevin, Timothy Machen, Evert, Richard Simms, Josh, Andreas Gauger, Mila, Martynas M, Nick, uptown710, Louis Vernon, Jimmy Andrews, Rico Being, Thomas N Tomei, Christos Alexiou, Roger, Tactical Bagels, Michel Santos, N.M Stephens, K0v1ub1, Tom Ross and Yoshinao Kumaga.
No it won't. I don't live in america and insurance prices are stagnated. The key is California's goverment regulation. People want cheap insurance while building homes in sand or places were evertything every five years.
@@Корольмертвых7123 Why would that matter? All of these insurance companies own each other and all of them just got double fucked by hurricanes and fires.
Bsacially that or so expensive that you essentially fund the disaster up front like how its supposed to work in theory. Instead the reinsurance money flows in a giant circle and in the end we all have to foot the massive bill that these Californian homeowners were supposed to have made if the government didn't force the rates to cancel coverage
The Federal government backs flood insurance, effectively guarenteeing the value of the properties in increasingly unsustainable flood zones. "Hundred-year flood" zones are seeing regular floods now.
@@Stonegolem6 I'm actually amazed there isn't a bigger bait-and-switch problem because of it, too. For as much as UA-cam commenters are stereotyped as jerks, they (we) haven't abused the editing ability too badly. Editing is common, but it's generally honest in intent.
State Farm did cancel polices, they sent out non-renewal notices months in advance, so that homeowners could get other insurance before the normal expiration date of their policies. It's the difference between ""'i m evicting you now" and "l'm not renewing your lease 6 months from now whe we know a wild fire is in 7"
The companies are generally not allowed by regulation to 'cancel' a policy mid term, unless there is fraud. But, you are correct in comparing it to an eviction, it also just sound harsher than non-renewal, or declining to renew, so the industry tries to avoid it but it's also why the pundits like to say cancelled.
I'm in Florida. They're canceling people for living in an older home, an over 10 year old water heater, and a less than 10 year old roof. We fortunately are still covered, but it's gone up from 3k a year to 9k a year in 2 years. The problem is the cost of everything goes up, but your pay doesn't. All of the value of productivity increases goes to someone else.
Thanks Morning Brew for my daily news briefing - sign up for free here: morningbrewdaily.com/patrickboyle
Not related to fires, but what is that thing above your jacket pocket? Is there somewhere we can order it, or is it embroidered on the jacket?
@@LesWhinen pocket square, the mark of a truly distinguished gentleman.
Patrick looks like the type of stand up guy who would tip his landlord.
Or the type of guy who things unitedhealthcare ceo’s need to be protected and respected.
Surely.
What happened in Hawaii will happen here. Hedge funds and venture capitalists and blackrock and other entities will just pay the land/home owners here a penny on the dollar and just rebuild and sell at insane costs or own and hold
This is greed and corruption at its finest. And negligence and misappropriation of government funds at its finest (where water resources were not set aside to prepare to save this from escalating)
Why didn’t you mention that these fires are 100% preventable for reaching populated areas? Or did I miss that part?
I'm a California registered professional Forester and 30 year Wildland Fire Manager. this is the most accurate report I've seen describing our fire hazard and related issues. Congratulations man truly masterful and I really appreciate your attention to detail.
In a professional dumpster fire and I agree with my coworker here. 🔥🧯
And to think, his area of expertise is rap.
Thank you, OP.
@@dragosmihai1001
You probably still believe MTG when she says Democrats control the weather
@@dragosmihai1001
Do you still believe in Jewish Space Lazers?
In an interview yesterday, they pointed out the Eucalyptus trees have become an increasingly popular landscaping plants. They grow fairly fast and make very attractive plants. A former resident of the Pacific Palisades said the streets of the community were lined with them. They are very resinous trees that burn fierce and hot. Fire is also a part of their natural lifecycle, and they thrive in it. Possibly, one of the worst choices to plant in So Cal.
Joseph Banks, a British botanist in the 1700s, decided that Portugal was an ideal place to grow the Australian Eucalyptus trees. They not only catch fire easily, they explode and the embers fly 200 meters without ambient wind. So it beggars the imagination how far they go with the near hurricane force Santa Ana wind. These should be made illegal in areas such as Los Angeles.
It's not unknown for cities to prohibit the planting of problematic species of trees.
Shut up. Liberal looking for ecuses
@@gabriellakadar a piece of charred wood is gonna fly the length of 2 football fields? I don't think so.
We have a lot of Eucalyptus trees in Australia, they are native here. The leaves are full of oil which is highly flammable. They are literally a fire hazard
Speaking as an Australian, the only reason ever to plant eucalypts is if you have koalas.
No koalas? Don't plant eucalypts. Being a beautiful tree is not an adequate reason to plant an arsonist somewhere that you could have planted literally any other tree.
Patrick, I learned more from your 21-minute video than I have from watching hours and hours of coverage and pages and pages of newspaper coverage here in the U.S. Thank you. And thank you also for the serious and compassionate tone you took here. Be well, sir.
As an Australian, I would suggest that all other countries replace their alien Gum Trees and Eucalyptus Trees. They were originally planted all around the world (including the USA), because they lose their lower branches as they grow, and were excellent "fire wood" trees - and you got a huge tree at the end. All that "ground litter", if not burned off in Winter (as Aussies do) will create wild-fires of immense destruction. The "Oil" in Gum Trees is another flammable woe. At least a cottage industry of collecting fallen branches is worthwhile.
Excellent advice
I grew a few Eucalyptus trees from seed here in Scotland, as I was intrigued by the claims that it made excellent firewood.
When my 5 year old Eucalyptus viminalis was killed by an unusually low -20C winter, I logged it for firewood and was amazed when a single log, about 9-10 inches diameter, burned for the whole day with quite a bit of ferocity.
It makes a brilliant fuel, a little going a very long way - and for that reason, I really think it should not be grown anywhere where there is a high risk of wildfires.
And I also agree that if it is, there should be a 'cottage industry' of collecting fallen branches, and probably even the fallen leaves/twigs as these burn really well too, and would be great in some sort of biomass heating system.
the fact that 99.9% of America houses are built with flammable materials doesn't help either
China has planted a lot of gum trees. They are hardy and grow relatively quickly with little water. Once the bushfires get into the canopy look out. That eucalyptus oil is super flammable.
@@animaxima8302it doesn't
But its hard to build both non flammable and earthquake resistant structures. Honestly California is just not actually a suitable environment for the amount of people who live there. But they do live there, and now have the problem of trying to survive there.
I'm a Brit and lived in the Palisades area of LA for about 3 months in the late 1980s - working in the aerospace industry. Happy Days.
I've watched most of your videos and find them to be excellent. But this one exceeded even your normal output. You are the first and only commentator to explain the cause of such extreme fires in January - the wet season, normally. I guessed at the Santa Anna winds, and recall how hot and strong they can be.
Poor people I feel for them.
Well done for another superb programme, keep 'em coming.
Andrew Davidson
Stevenage
England
Daniel Swain, the climate scientist at UCLA that Patrick mentioned at the beginning of the video has the most comprehensive explanations of what's occurring currently, in California, and what's likely to be occurring across the globe. His breakdown of how the firestorms and fire-blizzards worked to decimate the LA area are both scary and educational. He spoke with Adam Conover on his channel yesterday, Neil deGrasse Tyson on his channel two days ago and he has detailed explanations of what's occurring over on his own channel, Weather West.
@ thanks for this information.I'll check it out
Andrew D
There is a title to a bluegrass song, "Don't go where corn don't grow." Don't go where the insurance companies won't sell a homeowners policy for Wild Fire.
Why not ? Buy a land, put a cheap structure on it, and if it goes in flames, so be it. And leave in paradise in the meantime
@@dmitripogosian5084 This particular UA-cam podcast seems to answer 99% of my questions about Fire Insurance (and the lack thereof). Is this guy the Ed Witten of finance?the "new" Warren Buffet.? The UA-cam channel was listed among other sources. I clicked with temerity. A generation ago, he might be complimented as being able to "read the tea leaves". Now, he would be complimented as someone who "spills the tea". (I hope that I used "temerity" correctly!) Los Angeles, build back better!! Today, a wildfire, tomorrow, an earthquake. Tornadoes have destroyed cities. Floods have destroyed cities. Thank God that L.A. is not a battleground. Not a combat zone like Ukraine, Gaza, etc. Californians, recall elections for Mayor Karen Bass and Governor Gavin Newsom. Put Republicans into the state capitol in Sacramento in the house and senate. Change the regulatory policies that defeat progress - shaking down developers like the Mafia is alleged to do. Flip Los Angeles county to RED in the 2028 U.S. Presidential General Election. Separate Los Angeles County from the State of California as a "Sanctuary" region. Dale Bumpers was elected the Governor of Arkansas by defeating the incumbent governor, Winthrop Rockefeller. Bumper's first action was to implement the plan of the former Governor Rockefeller. Bumpers said "there was blood on the floor."
The tragedy wasn’t that homes burned, it’s that the people of LA didn’t burn in their homes.
well, have you been reading actuarial reports from insurance companies in recent years?
it won't be too long before they won't sell house insurance anywhere you'd want to live because of climate change associated risks. and folks have been warning about that for a very long time, but the response has always just been either shrugs or outright denial of the problem
@@ItWasSaucerShaped Imagine building back better.? Imagine new construction techniques (actually ancient techniques) with non-flammable natural materials and utilizing passive technology of heating/cooling.? There is a "natural" outdoor air-conditioning of the evaporation of a fine mist. It is used in summer outdoor entertainment venues. Imagine equipping the exterior of a structure with this misting system (assuming available water). Every commercial structure is mandated to have an interior fire sprinkler system. This misting system could be an exterior fire sprinkler system. Finally, the idea of the desalination of the ocean water must be reviewed to insure available water. Seasonal rainfall can be "harvested'" by building many more dams and reservoirs in the uninhabited chaparrals. I lived in southern California from 1978 until 1989. I remember a house that "disappeared" in a flash flood. First, it was there. Years later, it was gone without a trace. I asked and was told a flash flood was responsible. Imagine providing an alternate source of freshwater to the chlorination treatment facilities.
I've lived in So Cal all my life and whenever the Santa Ana winds blow here, we all experience a heightened sense of anxiety and go into "fire watch" mode. This time it was different. For the winds to blow 50-80mph in the midst of winter, there was a "feeling" in the air that something terrible was about to take place. When reports came in of fire, reality sank in pretty quick that this wasn't going to be just another wildfire. All anyone had to do was take a step outside in the winds and know that it would be a nearly impossible battle.
⭐🎯⭐🙏🏾✨😢 Exactly. I saw a fire 🔥 in the Hollywood hills at 7a.m the winds really is what did it.
The videos of the wind generated ember storms are beyond horrific. I’m getting very bored with the well meaning suggestions that Los Angeles merely needs to use seawater. Some folks are making a big thing about the lack of water pressure. The fact is, it wouldn’t have mattered because this fire spread so quickly. By the time seawater pumps might have been realistically used, the fire was already across PCH.
One channel that has been very useful in covering the fires in Palisades and Altadena is The Lookout. Zeke knows what he’s talking about. Go check it out, it might help you counter the misinformation and misunderstandings about the L.A. fires. Zeke was a professional fire mapper. He’s based in Chico. He understands very well the fuel situation in So Cal.
I have two friends that were evacuated from their neighborhood in west Altadena. Their neighborhood and house was spared because the vegetation on two sides got burned in the Station Fire. The fire scar from that fire probably saved their house.
That's exactly how it felt for me a few years ago when the Almeda fire in Ashland Oregon happened. We could all feel there was something different in the air, and when we saw the smoke a few hundred feet from our front door it was as if the whole world was collapsing in on itself. We were lucky to be spared, but so many in our community weren't. By the next day 80% of the Phoenix school district's kids were homeless. It is a horror I hope to never experience again.
Seen a Vid. explaining that the resavore above Palisades was drained 14 months earlier to repair a ripe in the vinyl cover ( to keep the water clean for drinking)is why there wasn’t enough water . A $13,000 repair.
Allso a couple of pranksters posted a vid. on X about them being ( on film ) at the seen of the Palisade fire when it ( they) started .
But theoretically less of a risk than if they’d been blowing in summer time? Not quite sure why Santa Ana’s blowing “out of season” makes fire a higher risk? Is it because residents, the utilities & LAFD are at a lower level of preparedness in winter?
I live deep in an “Extreme Fire Risk” hills environment (very similar to the Palisades) inland from Perth, Western Australia, surrounded on all sides by mature 150ft tall eucalyptus and undergrowth that all emits highly flammable vapours. The whole ecosystem is reliant on occasional fire. The dry leaves that the trees continuously shed in summer (now) are like fire-lighters! There are very strict requirements for firebreaks, keeping vegetation below a certain height, clearance of overhanging boughs, and the fire response capability (I believe) is only reduced in winter by not having locally positioned 737 sized water bombers.
How does that compare to the Palisades situation?
State Farm didn't cancel polices, they sent out non-renewal notices months in advance, so that homeowners could get other insurance before the normal expiration date of their policies.
It's the difference between "I'm evicting you now" and "I'm not renewing your lease 6 months from now."
that's literally cancelling dipshit.
Totally correct. And as a State Farm policy holder, I am glad they were paying attention to all of the warning signs.
And just to cut off the silly argument about "profits", State Farm doesn't make profits.
Yep. Insurance is alk about risk. In California companies aren't allowed to actually charge the increasea that would keep the risk manageable for insurance companies, so insurance companies need to move out once their current policies expire. If anything it is California's own fault for regulating the industry in a way it is impossible to even break even in that area
@@kcgunesq😂😂😂 state farms does not make profits is the dumbest most ignorant shit o have heard in a year... not every uneducated brainfart should be posted my guy 🤡🤦🏻♂️
@@kcgunesq State Farm is an interesting business. They lose money on insurance but make it back in investments. If they don’t want to insurance you the risk must be REALLY high.
I’m still recovering from Katrina and that was over 15 years ago. I was in a hurry to get back to my place and when they let me go back there was nothing but a slab left. I was in a hurry for nothing because there was nothing to go back to. I moved 187 miles north to my grandmother’s old $60,000 house it was practically falling down. I’m still there.
Insurance in Biloxi below I-10 is as high or higher than the total payment was before Katrina. That’s why I left.
20 years ago, that was 2005. I remember that year clearly.
Katrina struck just under 15 years ago
Phenomenal explanation! Thank you for taking the time to make this video
It seems that the world has once again, conspired to stop Patrick from speaking about rap.
"Keep ya head up oooh child you know for a crypto bro it aint easy" 🎶 🎶
Is rap all you ever think about?
@@janoycresnova9156 what else is there? economics?!
Bastards
Cheeky😂😂😂
Thank you for doing this research, Patrick. Excellent in-depth analysis of this crisis.
My wife and I were just talking about the insurance situation post fire and your video gave me a much better handle on the current situation and its causes. You're giving me and others out here some answers in time of stress and anxiety. Thank you bro.
Insurance is like a hospital gown: you think you're covered back there but you aren't.
Thanks Patrick for the update and the history of this area. You are an outstanding reporter.
Can’t really call it a wildfire when it’s in a densely populated area, it’s really more of a city fire.
🤣🤣🤣
So it's domesticated.
You can be wild in a city ... just come to New Orleans ... leave the fire behind!
@@NimbleBard48I do preferred imported over domestic. 🔥
people never learn
if you use wood it will catch on fire
brick will stand fire better
that is why you only see the chimney standing only
As professional, robust and unbiased an explanation of the Situation as one could expect from anyone. Kudos Patrick. And thank you.
Those sparks flying are crazy
Nahhh just normal.
Everyone thinks theyre a wildfire containment expert until they see a burning palm tree in 100mph winds.
I heard someone that saved their house and their adjacent neighboring homes describe and compared the ember storm they were in like it was a hail storm.
@ iF YOU STAYED HOME TO DEFEND YOUR HOME YOUR DEAD NOW,.
The Red Cross should be clearer about their fundraising. After 9/11, they faced major criticism when donations meant for attack victims were diverted to other programs. Now with the LA wildfires, the linked fundraiser doesn't clearly state if donations are actually restricted to wildfire relief or if they're just using the disaster to raise general funds. They should be transparent about whether money goes specifically to helping wildfire victims or if it goes into their general budget. Organizations shouldn't use disasters as marketing for unrestricted fundraising without being upfront about it. The lack of clear information about how our donations will be used makes it hard to trust that the money will directly help the people affected by these wildfires.
It never promises it. I live in Florida, and we never know where the hurricane disaster relief funds from them go.
In 2023, the New Zealand Red Cross held back donated money given to help victims of Cyclone Gabrielle. I will not donate to any Red Cross.
a good chunk of it is probably going into someones pockets
They are free to do whatever they want with their own money, stop crying lil bish 🤣
Why donate to multi-millonaires?
I was so happy to see your video. I knew there was an insurance crisis in CA, but I really didn't understand the details and background of it. Thank you so much for your informative video and everything you do!
The market has spoken. These properties are uninsurable.
They will be once Black Rock owns it all and the fire hydrants magically work.
Not uninsurable. People simply aren’t willing to accept the rates required to insure it.
The market made climate change only regulation can save us
@@Michael-p4f2nthe state isn’t allowing the insurance companies to charge the market rate
@@KentoLeoDragon Jesus Christ, people are real determined to shoehorn events into their scapegoating.
@4:50 that was an eye-opener for me when I saw that as well. Along hwy 1, pch, those houses are 2-lanes plus 2-shoulder-widths away from the other side that was burning. The fact the flames jumped all those neighborhoods, fire-breaks, roads was scary to see as a SoCal resident myself.
Flames didn't jump anything. Sparks and embers did.
I'm a senior claims professional for a large insurer in California. I found this report to be remarkably accurate, particularly regarding the ability of private insurers to cover catastrophes such as this, the legal constraints that constrain and even prevent insuring in fire danger zones, and even the mention of the costs of litigation and laws that provide windfalls to attorneys who bring suit. Litigation costs are a major factor in insurance cost and availability in California (and apparently Florida), where a single suit for a single family or plaintiff can bring in hundreds of thousands to the law firm. This money has to come from somewhere.
Good points. It's easy for us to blame the insurance companies for all our problems.
@@KevinMaxwell-o3t Very true, people seem to forget they are insurance COMPANIES, not insurance CHARITIES lol. They exist to make money.
Great. You just explained even further why insurance, at least this private insurance, isn't effective and is actually obsolete.
Maybe our tax dollars should be insuring our selves for these horrid events, even an individual random house fire?
And maybe we pay for it adjusted for what we own appraised value?
I mean, most of the time a state declares an emergency and if the state and/or Federal government lends aid, those transfer dollars typically don't go directly to the people to recover, but rather they backstop the insurance companies to ensure those who purchased insurance actually get their claims paid.
It's sort of a can't lose scam with insurance.
Same thing happens with medical and disability insurance.
If it becomes long term to where the person can get on SSI or Medicaid, anything the insurance company paid out during the back payment SSI and/or Medicaid grants, is recovered by the insurance company, turning them into just a fronting the cash sort of company; they never actually draw down reserves those claims.
So cut out the middle man.
Which is obviously ineffective.
It's why nations developed fire services or fire departments instead of offering "fire insurance" policies, that were hysterically funny episodes in London's great fires, or even small fires, when customers of various fire service insurance accidently went to the wrong fire house company, or the proof of purchase was left in the house being burned, thus couldn't produce proof of coverage thus no fire fighters to help put out he fire.
Private insurance is basically a scam.
At the fairest, it's obsolete bullshit.
Because you f like to get the money but then don't cover the thing people pay you for.
The Santa Ana Winds are also "katabatic" whereby they heat up from flowing down in elevation. And they came hot and dry off the Mohave Desert to start with-
Excellent video presentation….
As always.
I remember those winds in LA. Some nights you could feel the desert vibe. Almost like it carried a scent
Yes!
Why the hell would anyone want to rebuild in a region that has become so prone to fire damage that no insurers would want to cover? It's financial suicide.
People with money *can* afford to do this.
There are houses built with modern California building codes that survived fine. Rebuild with those modern codes.
For the same reason people build frontline beach properties that they know won’t last. The US heavily subsidizes this behavior through things like FEMA.
If it’s your only house, you’re screwed because government is slow, but if you have other places to live you’ll get a new house pretty much for free.
Stossel has even complained that it’s ridiculous that he is *making money* from that, because he gets a new house built with tax money and the value of his property actually increases!
Fireproof structure. Metal roof, stucco walls, tempered glass. Ok.
@@mforgetteable Okay, now what about the earthquakes? Putting the cost of those materials aside, it's a choice between engineering for fire-resistance or quake-resistance. Would you rather your cheap house burned to the ground or your not-so-cheap house collapsed on top of you? That's the trade-off California is stuck with. It's a coastal desert on a major fault line. There is no simple solution here, especially if the ultra-wealthy pricks who lived in the area still want their maids, chauffeurs, and personal chefs; can't have employees if the employees can't live.
as a survivor of hurricanes 🌀 it takes a long long long time to return to work and that’s if you’re not scrambling to find housing and the restaurant or business wasn’t damaged; which most are
its been three years since ian and some are just getting work done and businesses are just now kinda back in order but it is taking an incredibly long time rebuilding
after hurricane charley in 04 things came back way quicker but noticed it’s getting harder and responses to storms lesser as the years go by
Quick correction. The policies were not cancelled, they were not eligible for renewal.
Same result when no other company will insure you.
Not renewing means your policy is cancelled at its termination date.
@@droor24 Or renewing means that the policy was cancelled and then exactly the same one was bought again
@@Nordic_SkyCalifornia has an insurance of last resort. The state will always cover you, it's just expensive. It is call the California Fair Plan if you wanted to look into it.
@@Robjec53 I'm already covered by it, but the limit is $3 million. My house is worth several times that.
I live and colorado and know someone who is studying wildfire management. She has said that alot of wildfires are made worse by privately owned land owners refusing to/ not knowing how to/ or not having the money to do controled burns on their properties. In the past she had a job where she went to private land owners and tried to convince them to do conroled burns on their land. Trying to convince a tree farm to burn their land sounded like pulling teeth.
I feel bad for the people who have lost everything to this fire.
This is a known fact not just by firefighters but any country people. Note that a fire means a new start. See Yellowstone !
This fire backed onto public forested land, not private. Although there is a history of fire suppression on public lands (and this history should be put under VERY heavy scrutiny, as it is most certainly wrongheaded and proximately contributory to recent fire intensity), this is not the cause here.
Lol...tree farm
this is just bullshit scapegoating just like the bullshit claims that homeless people di it
California stopped allowing proper fire breaks and woodland management decades ago. Fish, mice and weeds get priority. This was a conscious and deliberate decision. Only now are voters starting to understand the downside of this choice.
There's a company in Australia that sells bushfire supression systems, they are like oversized sprinklers and the system is powered by a diesel pump. They are both on and around the house.
I'd imagine the system is substantially cheaper than building a new house.
They don't have any water they live in a desert.
@@JoeBLOWFHByou have an underground water tank built specifically for fire suppression.
@@JoeBLOWFHB in front of the pacific ocean you mean ahaha
Absolutely!!!
These people are wealthy, for the most part, THEY CAN BUY WATER. Maybe, Minnesota, land of a thousand lakes will sell it? How about Louisiana??
"Mechanical thinning", from my experience, usually makes fire danger worse, not better. The benefits may be evident for only 1-2 years, or the year following can be immediately worse in terms of flammability. It depends on the vegetation type its invasibility by highly flammable Old-World origin weedy grasses. Controlled burns can also make the situation worse. Environmental reviews are slow, but from my experience they do not take "five years". The wild vegetation forming most of the wildland-urban interface in the LA area is mostly chaparral, which can't be thinned. No matter what you do, short of paving over it, it grows back densely and with high flammability. That's the nature of chaparral, there's no escaping that fact. The important matter to be dealt with here is the building of housing in that wildland interface. It's not the right thing to do, no matter how much people desire to live in such environments. I've done a lot of work as a botanist on federal and state lands in the US and their equivalents in Canada. Vegetation is extremely complex and there are very few people who know how it works. I'm horrified to hear non-experts simplify it down to falsehoods and over-simplicity. Expertise in vegetation and its management is at least as important as expertise in financial matters. I shouldn't advise on finances, and financial experts shouldn't advise on environmental policy.
Well written, people have no idea how varied California environmental zones are
So true but people prefer to listen to politicians, people in finance, sociology... All the current environmental issues have been forecasted in the sixties if not before.
"I'm horrified to hear non-experts simplify it down to falsehoods and over-simplicity. "
Claims the self appointed "expert" botanist who argues that mechanical thinning and controlled burns actually increase wildfire risk despite being utilised almost all over the world by (real) expert foresters.
Alie Ward Ologies: Fire Ecology (WILDFIRES & INDIGENOUS FIRE MANAGEMENT) Mega Encore with Dr. Gavin Jones & Dr. Amy Christianson
FIVE STAR comment!
Thank you.
900$ a square foot minimum. Even for simple houses. This is fact in California. New sewer, upgraded foundation, hella insulation, ev charging, solar panels, heat pumps, new fire suppression system, high efficiency tempered glass windows, sustainable non flammable materials,…etc….. This is much more expensive than some would say.
I believe Malibu is on non-conforming septic sewer., which also would need upgrading . Anyhow, They’ll figure it out. Gorgeous view.
The logical answer; people will have to make due with much smaller homes.
@@mforgetteable Good point.
Thousand dollars per square foot.
My house was made by fire Brick steel concrete. Fools live in a match box in a dry forest 😅
My mother lives in Augusta, GA, and she was affected by Hurricane Helene, so this one hit home for me. She suffered property damage to home and automobile. We avoided having to declare it “totaled” and unlike a few, we avoided the worst structural damage to the house itself. Some of the back got trashed but we avoided it being a lot worse.
Amazing video. Love the unbiased analysis.
As an economist, you explained this well, outlining CA's system of perverse incentives, their free-rider problem, and third party costs due to gov't interference in the market. Well done.
Thank you for keeping us informed in such a neutral way, I really appreciate your approach to each topic you discuss!!
I don't like how people think a 30 million dollar home will cost 30 million dollars to rebuild. Just because the plot is worth a lot doesnt mesn the house is
That was brought up and discussed in the video.
True. But the construction cost will be greater, than the original, whatever that was.
You are thinking like a poor person. The content inside a 30 million dollar home is worth a lot more than the house itself. Imagine the guy having a Pagani, and couple of Bugattis, and then a fine wine collection, an art collection, not to mention a lot of luxury clothes and furniture.
@@lionrock2023most of those people don’t own anything like that.
90% of those homes are full of people who can barely afford their payments.
I know five people who lived there and ALL of them only moved there because their wives pushed it. They are all living out of their means and buy everything at IKEA.
@@ChadDidNothingWrong he is talking specifically about a 30 million dollar home, which is what I was responding to.
a guy with a 30 million dollar home is basically a billionaire or is very close to being one.
people who own a 5 million dollar home, are generally worth easily north of 30 million dollar, and they can be expected to have nice things inside their homes as well.
I love that in the ad we get different camera angles, I never thought this moment would happen
THanks Patrick, great overview as usual!
Anyone that was paying attention could, and did predict this. It isn't coincidence that State Farm and others started dropping coverage where they did.
Are other states with increased risk of flooding or drought or wind etc doing the same?
@@SusCalvinSure have, but also in other states insurers are able to properly rate the risk if they stay, the state insurance commissioner in CA until this disaster has prohibited insurers from taking the correct rate by such practices as denying reinsurance cost being included in the premium and the use of modeling for assessing future risk. If the science says you should pay $3500 a year based on the many factors that go into determining the risk, but CA will only allow $1500, what is an insurer supposed to do, eat that kind of money per property and not have enough on the books to pay out in a major disaster? Logically you would not write new business and non-renew policies in the state under such conditions.
@@ThirdCydonian It would mean there is suddenly an increasing, measurable cost instead of a world where you can juggle a risk while pretending it does not exist.
I don't know how much more insurance premiums US households can take on, like how much of your wage goes to insurances.
For me, that cost is carried partly by my tax bill, and a mix of insurances with a few more state systems. It's still a cost, but spread over a larger collective.
So you could predict this fire would happen in Pacific Palisades? Or could it have happened in some other neighborhood of a 3,000+ square mile county?
Patrick, can you do a video on the insurance companies pulling out of Florida in response to the recent hurricanes? I would love to learn more about the industry.
Only the rich will be able to afford home insurance in Florida soon enough. DeSantis doesn't make it a priority as he doesn't own a home.
@@colleenpeck6347 Florida also has a government associated insurer of last resort, and they're the primary insurer in a lot of places there. It's called Citizens Property Insurance, and a year ago DeSantis commented that it's "not solvent", which is not a surprise at all. I figure these systems will ultimately be subsidized by the federal government when disasters hit. It's quite interesting that given the political disparity between these 2 states, they have such a similar insurance situation. That fact is on full display when one or the other needs to cash in.
Thank you for this concise and thoughtful synopsis…my Family is fully immersed in dealing with this kerfufful
Absolutely top notch report and commentary!
Excellent summary of all the factors. Appreciate all the information I hadn’t already heard.
I'm hearing that all California home owners (including those, like me, who live in areas where there is very low fire risk) will be charged some new fees to help cover all the insurance losses. My home insurance has already skyrocketed in price the last 3 years even though I am in very low risk area -- and now it sounds like I'll be charged this new fee on top of that.
Excellent analysis of the effect on the insurers, Patrick!
As a suggestion, please consider a similar discussion of the effect of the Palisades and Eaton fires on lenders.
Those homes and other structures which had loans against them most certainly had loans against them from banks, credit unions and other lenders, necessitating impairment charges which may be in excess of current loss allowances.
Consequently, the effect of fire losses will have a "ripple effect" on the value of the loan collateral and may necessitate larger loan loss provisions. The effect of larger loan loss provisions will have a direct and negative effect on regulatory capital for those lenders.
This video really hit the nail on the head for the insurance issues, but I think you should have also touched on the immense market distortions caused by California’s draconian zoning codes, which prevent cities like LA from building denser housing in the city itself and instead force development out into the woodlands and drive up the prices (and thus insurance losses) for houses.
I'm not so sure about that because the houses that get pushed into the woods are the super wealthy
He did though? He said this fire could potentially be a catalyst for changing that
@@TomECroft He said that they might build more densely on the burned land, not change the zoning code for the entire city
Always succinct yet comprehensive. Thanks
In short State Farm and Farmers paid attention, noticed how bad things where getting, decided to let every policy in California expire because they couldn't change premiums... and everyone gets to 'enjoy' the results.
Yeah, Californian leaders dropped the ball hard; it would have been impossible to halt all fires but maybe they could have done something to mitigate this disaster.
The Santa Ana Winds are also called the "Murder Winds".
Home insurance in Texas is beginning to see similar problems brewing. Claims from hurricanes along the gulf coast, tornadoes in north central Texas and fires to the west and panhandle have all increased as housing has grown and the climate has worsened.
Literally no change has occurred. Why pick Texas to make shit up about when in older communities in the midwest insured value can be three times what the house trades for?
Are the US states using different insurance systems and insurance regulations?
It's like watching people juggle a cost they pretend does not exist between them.
@@SusCalvin Yes and Yes.
Climate change baby, you can deny it all you want but it’ll start showing up materially in increases in insurance and infrastructure costs
@@SusCalvin there was a supreme court case almost 100 years ago that determined it was not a federal matter. Every state has different rules. I worked for an insurance company doing underwritting and agency services. We used to say California was like another country and Texas was like another planet, when it came to how they were regulated. The rules are very different to most other states in both.
I wonder if these areas will start to look like trailer parks, since residents won't be able to afford to replace their custom houses. They're going to want to move back ASAP. Every trailer-able house available is going to get snatched up. It seems so obvious.
They're called "tiny homes" now and fly much better in tornados.
Wow, excellent coverage of the topic, balanced, nuanced and multi-faceted. Thank you.
These areas need to adopt building codes similar to Australia's Bush Fire Code. It would be insanity to rebuild any of these houses outside of this code. It will be more expensive for sure, but it's the only way to avoid doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
Or they could just manage the forests properly like they did for centuries before the dumn democrats chose mice habitat over human life.
People LOVE insanity.
They can't get enough of it, mate.
@One-Two_swift-kickbox lol
Building codes were updated in the 90s. I'm not sure how they compare to Australia's. Regardless though older homes won't have been built to the modern codes.
...and then people will complain that houses are too expensive and will get rid of the code
I worked in the re-insurance over 30 years ago. At that time many London based re-insurers would go nowhere near Florida based companies as most were run by hooligans. Never heard those people complain about California in those days of Reagan etc.
The interference in the insurance industry and re-insurers seems totally counter productive, as most government interference is in a very competitive industry.
On a positive note, building to the current California building code will help mitigate the wildfire risk in these areas. Unfortunately, these neighborhoods won’t look as unique as they did before the fires
PS - The Gelson's Market in Pacific Palisades, California was destroyed by the Palisades Fire in January 2025. The store had a huge parking lot, doubt any new building will waste that much real estate on parking. Probably will be replaced by a huge mixed use development with underground parking surrounded by multistory apartments or condominiums
On a positive note, 20 plus people have died. Wow. It totally wasn't from the government being completely incompetent.
Your assuming people will bother to rebuild, it might make more sense to take the insurance money and invest in another state.
@@georgethompson913- Agree, I’d probably move to Camarillo or Ventura rather than deal with the rebuilding process.
People need to listen to insurance companies more. Their job is literally to predict the future. If an insurance company pulls out of your state, you should take that as a sign, not demonize them.
People have already decided it's easier to blame the government, going by some of these comments
But, but, but the insurance companies say that climate warming is real, and need to price it into their rates.
It’s funny how many people here seem to think that access to insurance is a Right.
Lot of People don't give a damn about climate change and later suffer from extreme weather that cause more severe natural disaster and still said climate change is nonsense so what are you expect from them in that matter?
viz. they don't care about strange water current get more hotter and mess how weather in each year aka El Nino and la Nina and when they fk up rant to government and at the same time still elect people who didn't give a give a damn about climate change too.
This year in California is in El Nino phase so they (people and gov.) have to prepare it beforehand but biggest problem in this disaster was privatize fire department and not give damn on anything except extract the money and here by now they got big slap in their face with this fire disaster can be less suffer compare what happen right now.
@@Florklit sort of is, but also in many cases you are literally forced to get insurance. Like where I live it's a penalizable crime not to have 2 different types of insurance and if you mortgage your home the bank also forces you to get insurance for that too.
So it's a damned if you do and damned if you don't because everyone who makes the rules is just trying to rig the game to scam as much money out of you as possible, including the consumers who rarely have controlling influence but have the numbers to be annoying forever with all the crazy stuff they believe and try to pull
Everyone is a clown because we live I a circus
Insurance companies have teams of people and AI to measure risk on an ongoing basis. They very prudently concluded that these areas in California could only be insured at much greater premiums. The state of California forbade these price increases. So the insurance companies, being for-profit businesses, elected to not renew many policies in these areas. Don't blame the insurance companies. Blame the state of California for not mitigating fire risk for at least 10 distinct reasons.
these insurance companies control the cali state insurance board. They control which companies can insure. This isnt remotely a fucking free market and never has been. Cant wait til youre grovelling and whining 4 years from now when you and patrick get your dream of an absolutely unregulated corporate state and you cant afford to live indoors
Mostly correct, but it isn't just profits they look to protect, but also solvency. State Farm doesn't have profits to protect.
And to some extent the residents have to take some blame. There’s a hundred different things you can do to make your house more fire resistant. Everything from choosing different materials to installing your own firefighting systems. Anyone who has a pool should have their own roof sprinkler system with a pump and generator ready to go. Best wildfire insurance you’ll ever get, for a few grand.
Empty reservoirs, empty fire hydrants, your government doesn’t care about you, in fact it despises you, pay your taxes & shut up.
Maybe they'll figure out by then that bricks are a better building material.
The home belongs to the bank and the state. They should insure their own collateral.
Thanks for your reportage. First rate.
In Ireland we have heard all the devastation we are all so sorry for all the people there. Im so sorry. Its awful.
Thank you for your kind words. ❤
Super timely. Thank you.
Excellent coverage and analysis!
3:10 Something similar happened last year to the railway line through Keighley (Albeit without the dry year element) where two wet years meant the trees had grown faster than the railway staff could cut them back and one tree got close enough to the overhead wires to attract an arc that boiled the moisture out of the tree and then exploded it starting a fire that damaged the railway. It was captured on camera by a local resident, and extraordinary thing to watch.
"Man sparks 36-acre wildfire driving truck with missing tire." Why do I have to coexist with people like this?
Dragging trailer-chains spark fires here in Nevada-
@@jackprier7727 Mandating dash cams that look back along the truck and trailer would help. A big truck hardly feels the effect of one failed wheel until the suspension drags on the ground. This can be miles. I have seen numerous truck and trailer fires in Australia, by the time the driver is aware, all he can do is uncouple the tractor unit and drive far enough to not go up as well. If we spotted black smoke, we would drive a rescue vehicle until we found it, too late then for extinguishing.
You think that he did it on purpose?
@@DioTheGreatOne I think those type of fires are "I got a lot to do, I'm going" fires.
@@jackprier7727 Yeah but dude probably didn't think some sparks from his wheel would spark a wildlife, and he probably didn't lose his wheel on purpose either.
Thank you for your insight and knowledge. Keep up the good work.
The Santa Ana winds as Bob Dylan put it, are the Winds of the apocalypse. I experienced them once, I went from a beautifully Pleasant night to fleeing to get to my car because the wind picked up so fast and so suddenly and debris was flying everywhere.
Apocalypse insurance sounds expensive tbh
theyre an experience growing up in socal, i do not miss them but theyre not THAT bad a few times a year.
Like in Florida, the hurricane force winds aren't that bad a couple of times a year. Unfortunately, most insurance companies gave left. We are only left with expensive ones that we have to beg to cover us. Even if they make us get a new roof prior to coverage.
Best to avoid building in areas where Santa Ana like winds are an issue. People want to live in vulnerable areas, so it comes with risk. I’ll never understand why people insist on living in areas with constant yearly hurricanes, floods, n fires. Every year it’s the same thing, while some years are worse, like this fire, n hurricanes we had in other states. Some areas should not be inhabited, no matter how nice n pretty it is to live there, but I guess some think it’s worth the risk.
@@jasminek5557if you remove everywhere with risks of fore and flood and hurricanes, should probabaly add earthquakes and tsunamis, thre aren't really alot of places left.
Almost everywhere you choose to live has a risk of natural disaster of some form or another. You just have to calculate the risks and try to build to mitigate them. And hope they don't get worse because of something outside of your control, like climate change.
My home insurance already went up by 25% this year in Northern CA. I really hope it doesn't go up more
It will.
@Skantezz I love California it's so beautiful here. We have mountains red woods, beaches, Yosemite, etc. But if it keeps getting so expensive I just might have to sell my house and GTFO. Such a pity.
There's no way it wouldn't increase.
I live in east coast, with no fires, no hurricanes or any weather issues, yet my insurance went up about 15 percent this year, which includes home n car insurance. Insurance is not going up only because of these disasters, but because of bad policies n leadership too. All insurance has gone up, with disaster prone areas slightly more.
@@jasminek5557I live in PA, got notice my 300k home insurance is going up $90 this year. So going to make the phone calls money and read policies. Getting tired of having to pay for disaster and high crime areas.
Very informative and much appreciated. I am an east coast architect and have visited the Santa Monica Mountains, several times and am familiar with its enormous natural beauty and desirability of its south slope canyons and ridges as building sites for some of the most expensive and exclusive residential building sites in America over the past century. I am also familiar with the fascinating behavior of fire in this region.
Speaking metaphorically, what I am seeing is a situation where an entire region has allowed itself to build an enormous series of hi-rise buildings out of stick framing and full of combustible materials. Every floor is privately owned and its fire resistant is managed solely by the homeowner. There are non-combustible stair towers with standpipes (streets and canyon roads) but little else in the way of water-based fire protection or means of multi-hour fireproof compartmentalization (fire breaks).
The Chicago Fire of 1871 led to many reformer in urban planning and construction of urban areas as well as changes is firefighting. The history of fire-safety is a long saga of “lessons learned” from expensive and tragic conflagrations. January 2025 may be Los Angeles and California’s “Chicago Fire”.
I will say that in the end, it seems like a miracle that the death toll has been so low. I believe the death toll for Pacific Palisades has been 16. In the end, it should be noted that the primary directive of firefighting is saving LIVES.
I hope against hope that they don't rebuild with wood. The CA government needs to step up and subsidize the difference for building with brick and cement so that LA is built back better
Why does it need a government subsidy? If they can't afford to live there, then move.
@HenryJames-q6t I think it'd be the best way to foster a properly regulated reconstruction without placing undue burden on people that just lost their homes.
And then an earthquake hits and people start criticizing CA homeowners for building their houses from heavy bricks held together with mortar.
@ But it's not an "undue" burden. It's their house. They bought it. They benefit from it. Why socialize their loss? Why do the rest of us have to pay for?
Unfortunately that area is next to the San Andreas fault, so prone to earthquakes too. Concrete and brick structures are terrible during earthquakes and will collapse. Earthquakes are much more deadly than fires because you don't have time to evacuate from an earthquake.
I think they should build steel frame houses with foam concrete walls that are not structural. That would withstand both earthquakes and fires.
I keep seeing people use this as an opportunity to hate on insurance companies, and while I can sympathize and also find plenty of reasons to hate them too, I keep trying to point out that there is a massive difference between an insurance company weaseling out of paying a claim, vs them outright refusing to insure you at all. It's like going to a self defense company and getting angry at them because they won't sell you a protective vest so you can take a round from a tank
Yeah, I think a lot of it is that people conflate property insurance with health insurance, and while there are a lot of similar practices and principles involved, they are pretty different beasts, since people are virtually gauranteed to make claims in health insurance, while property insurance claims are few and far between, outside disasters like this. Legal Eagle's recent video comments were full of a lot of garbage. Patrick's viewers seem a lot more aware of what they do and don't know about insurance.
Even if they got their "non-profit scenario", at a minimum an insurance company would need to take in billions of dollars from other policy holders just to pay rebuild costs for this catastrophe alone.
Terrible analogy. Insurance is mandated by law. Since when do businesses turn away customers based on morality?
@@runswithraptors Who said anything about morality? It's all about risk.
Best Hip Hop channel on the Internet right now
In Denver, my home insurance has tripled in eleven years. Property tax has doubled. Essential services and infrastructure are deteriorating. Need I mention that the front rage frequently experiences fires fanned by the equivalent of Santa Ana winds.
Oh Patrick. Such brilliant content over multiple paradigms. You and your team are legendary! 👍🏻🇦🇺👍🏻
What does this have to do with rap?
The forests are spitting fire.
Hahaha hahaha,!!!!!! YES!!!!
Check back on older Patrick videos.
The volume of research required to put this report together boggles the mind. Very impressive.
You mean using AI to research is hard? Cone on. Wake up
What a small mind you have
'$1M house on $2M land' The knowledge that a house burnt on that site, probably drops the land value to near zero, and there is no insurance cover for that.
Excellent Patrick - Thank you.
I know you're a big fan of large corporations, but the reality is, no insurance company is going to insure places like LA during the current crisis. It's not a regulation issue: it's simply that the return isn't high enough to make these risks worth it.
It used to be that fire insurance covers 100% of replacement cost not value of the structure. So it doesn't matter what the materials cost. The insurance is going to replace the structure.
Dream on.
When multiple insurance companies say you're doing something extremely risky, we don't want to partner with you, that's a wake up call.
Many had their fire insurance cancelled in recent months, or increased from ~$5000 to around ~$20,000 --- that's why so many were uninsured. They couldn't afford it.
Insurance does cover 100% of the replacement cost, up to a certain dollar value. The key is that you have to keep that dollar value above the cost it would be to actually replace it.
The big issue with that as well is the cost to replace it is different if your house burns down because of a house fire and multiple neighborhoods burned down because of a wildfire. Supply and demand will throw the cost curve way out and suddenly what is enough to rebuild for a single incident becomes no longer enough to rebuild now that so many people are affected. Similar to rental costs for those displaced.
depends on your insurance.. which depends on your state insurance board.. which is governed by the insurance companies. i have replacement insurance in nc
Thank you for this great assessment!
Yep, I'm looking forward to an increase in my insurance costs this year, 5000 miles away from California.
which is total B.S. for someone outside the area to have to pay for. And L.A. voters are responsible for electing an unqualified black women as mayor, a subject no one is willing to talk about.
Thank you for respecting our time.
Flawless delivery.
very good explainer. thanks.
Florida has similar insurance market issues. Just replace wildfires with hurricanes.
plus, fraud
A lot easier to prevent against wildfires growing out of control than a hurricane. LA stopped doing known best practices and they paid dearly.
@@DesignRhythm Unlike many ecosystems, regular controlled burns are not what the plant life here evolved to and expects to happen. Patrick touches on this at 4:40. Patrick also said that they'd mechanically thinned over 500,000 acres in this specific area in 2024. It's just never gonna be enough because this type of biome is characterized by very infrequent, but large fires and long periods of regrowth. It's called a Chaparral biome. The answer is to just not build structures in wooded areas in this biome, as the natural fire cycle does not jibe with human settlement. Humans are just stubborn though, and are bad at exercising restraint around cycles that are measured in terms of several decades.
@ Ah yes, more excuses. Funny, the Santa Ana winds have been around for millenia, but LA doesn't lose 12,000+ homes every year, why is that? Did u know the homeless started over 13,000 fires in 2024 and were over 50% of the FD's calls? If fire was so imminent, why did Gavin + Bass cut the budget? Why was the 2nd largest reservoir (117,000,000 gallons) EMPTY during an anticipated windstorm fire warming? Why were private owners able to save property with garden hoses? Why was Caruso able to save his malls?Why did it take 44 minutes to make it to the 1st call? Why only send out 5 of 40 fire engines the 1st day? Why not have them work a 2nd shift? Why not call in other help before the expected fires? Why didn't these fires happen everywhere in LA? Why did the mayor leave AFTER the warnings?
The red cross is a waste of money to donate towards... Very little of the money will make it to actual victims of this fire.
Really and you know this because, how?
So who do you recommend people give money too Help, California?
@neilkurzman4907 it is well known in the United States that the red cross is a for-profit blood donation system masquerading as an aid organization. Donate your money to local organizations on the ground in LA.
@@neilkurzman4907It‘s a public known fact, atleast over here in Europe.
@@neilkurzman4907Maybe „LA- Foodbank“ would be a good choise to donate to
@
So you think there’s one worldwide, Red Cross ?
Each country has their own.
And it’s not an international corporation.
In fact that the Muslim world, it’s the red Crescent
I really appreciate your content which includes some much detail.
Great Video Patrick
Thanks to our growing list of Patreon Sponsors and Channel Members for supporting the channel. www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance : Paul Rohrbaugh, Douglas Caldwell, Greg Blake, Michal Lacko, Dougald Middleton, David O'Connor, Douglas Caldwell, Carsten Baukrowitz, Robert Wave, Jason Young, Ness Jung, Ben Brown, yourcheapdate, Dorothy Watson, Michael A Mayo, Chris Deister, Fredrick Saupe, Winston Wolfe, Adrian, Aaron Rose, Greg Thatcher, Chris Nicholls, Stephen, Joshua Rosenthal, Corgi, Adi, maRiano polidoRi, Joe Del Vicario, Marcio Andreazzi, Stefan Alexander, Stefan Penner, Scott Guthery, Luis Carmona, Keith Elkin, Claire Walsh, Marek Novák, Richard Stagg, Heinrich, Edgar De Sola, Sprite_tm, Wade Hobbs, Julie, Tom, Andre Michel, MrLuigi1138, Daniel Soderberg, Noel Kurth, Simon Crosby, Gary Yrag, Sebastian, Charles, C.J. Christie, Daniel, Tim Jamison, Sam Freed,Mike Farmwald, DaFlesh, Michael Wilson, Peter Weiden, Adam Stickney, Agatha DeStories, Suzy Maclay, scott johnson, Jonathan Metter, freebird, Alexander E F, Forrest Mobley, lee beville, Fernanda Alario, William j Murphy, Atanas Atanasov, Maximiliano Rios, WhiskeyTuesday, Callum McLean, Christopher Lesner, Ivo Stoicov, William Ching, Georgios Kontogiannis, D F CICU, JAG, Pjotr Bekkering, Nesh Hassan, Brainless, Ziad Azam, Ed, Artiom Casapu, Eric Holloman, ML, Meee, Paul McCourt, Simon Bone, Alan Medina, Fly Girl, james brummel, Jessie Chiu, M G, Martin Dráb, eliott, Bill Walsh, Stephen Fotos, Brian McCullough, Sarah, Jonathan Horn, steel, Brian W Bush, James Hoctor, Eduardo, Jay T, Claude Chevroulet, Davíð Örn Jóhannesson, storm, Janusz Wieczorek, D Vidot, Christopher Boersma, Stephan Prinz, Norman A. Letterman, georgejr, Keanu Thierolf, Jeffrey, Matthew Berry, pawel irisik, Chris Davey, Michael Jones, Ekaterina Lukyanets, Scott Gardner, Viktor Nilsson, Paul Hilscher, Eric, Larry, Lukas Braszus, hyeora,Swain Gant, Kirk Naylor-Vane, Earnest Williams, Subliminal Transformation, Kurt Mueller, KoolJBlack, MrDietsam, Shaun Alexander, Angelo Rauseo, Bo Grünberger, Henk S, Okke, Michael Chow, Andrew Backer, Olivia Ney, Zachary Tu, Andrew Price, Alexandre Mah, Jean-Philippe Lemoussu, Gautham Chandra, Heather Meeker, Daniel Taylor, Nishil, Nigel Knight, gavin, Arjun K.S, Louis Görtz, Jordan Millar, Molly Carr,Joshua, Shaun Deanesh, Eric Bowden, Felix Goroncy, helter_seltzer, Zhngy, lazypikachu23, Compuart, Tom Eccles, AT, Adgn, STEPHEN INGRA, Clement Schoepfer, M, A M, Dave Jones, Julien Leveille, Piotr Kłos, Chan Mun Kay, Kirandeep Kaur, Jacob Warbrick, David Kavanagh, Kalimero, Omer Secer, Yura Vladimirovich, Alexander List, korede oguntuga, Thomas Foster, Zoe Nolan, Mihai, Bolutife Ogunsuyi, Old Ulysses, Mann, Rolf-Are Åbotsvik, Erik Johansson, Nay Lin Tun, Genji, Sean Wheeler, Tom, Артем Мельников, Matthew Loos, Jaroslav Tupý, The Collier Report, Sola F, Rick Thor, Denis R, jugakalpa das, vicco55, vasan krish, DataLog, Johanes Sugiharto, Mark Pascarella, Gregory Gleason, Browning Mank, lulu minator, Mario Stemmann, Christopher Leigh, Michael Bascom, heathen99, Taivo Hiielaid, TheLunarBear, Scott Guthery, Irmantas Joksas, Leopoldo Silva, Henri Morse, Tiger, Angie at Work, francois meunier, Greg Thatcher, justine waje, Chris Deister, Peng Kuan Soh, Justin Subtle, John Spenceley, Gary Manotoc, Mauricio Villalobos B, Max Kaye, Serene Cynic, Yan Babitski, faraz arabi, Marcos Cuellar, Jay Hart, Petteri Korhonen, Safira Wibawa, Matthew Twomey, Adi Shafir, Dablo Escobud, Vivian Pang, Ian Sinclair, doug ritchie, Rod Whelan, Bob Wang, George O, Zephyral, Stefano Angioletti, Sam Searle, Travis Glanzer, Hazman Elias, Alex Sss, saylesma, Jennifer Settle, Anh Minh, Dan Sellers, David H Heinrich, Chris Chia, David Hay, Sandro, Leona, Yan Dubin, Genji, Brian Shaw, neil mclure, Jeff Page, Stephen Heiner, Tadas Šubonis, Adam, Antonio, Patrick Alexander, Greg L, Paul Roland Carlos Garcia Cabral, NotThatDan, Diarmuid Kelly, Juanita Lantini, Martin, Julius Schulte, Yixuan Zheng, Greater Fool, Katja K, neosama, Shivani N, HoneyBadger, Hamish Ivey-Law, Ed, Richárd Nagyfi, griffll8, Oliver Sun, Soumnek, Justyna Kolniak, Devin Lunney, Jan Kowalski, Roberta Tsang, Shuo Wang, Joe Mosbacher, Mitchell Blackmore, Cameron Kilgore, Robert B. Cowan, Nora, Rio.r, Rod, George Pennington, Sergiu Coroi, Eric Lee, Martin Kristiansen, Gamewarrior010, Allan Lindqvist, Kamil Kraszewski, Jaran Dorelat, Po, riseofgamer, Dean Tingey, Safira, Frederick, Binary Split, Todd Howard’s Daddy, David A Donovan, K, Christopher McVey, kat, Todd Weatherhead, Minde chenrezig, Ulug Bey, Ian Godsey, Daniel Meier, Shay Rojansky, Edward Paxon Frady, Elliott Short, Cold Binterp, Cameron Raynor, Dana W, Filip Rolenec, David, Jacob, Kevin, Timothy Machen, Evert, Richard Simms, Josh, Andreas Gauger, Mila, Martynas M, Nick, uptown710, Louis Vernon, Jimmy Andrews, Rico Being, Thomas N Tomei, Christos Alexiou, Roger, Tactical Bagels, Michel Santos, N.M Stephens, K0v1ub1, Tom Ross and Yoshinao Kumaga.
It doesn't matter where you live in America or what you have insured, this will likely screw up your insurance for the worse over the next 5 years.
even new york?
No it won't. I don't live in america and insurance prices are stagnated. The key is California's goverment regulation. People want cheap insurance while building homes in sand or places were evertything every five years.
@@johanalejandrocazadordepin7225who asked blud
@@Корольмертвых7123 Why would that matter? All of these insurance companies own each other and all of them just got double fucked by hurricanes and fires.
BlackRock is smiling awfully widly lately.
they dont want that property either its a fire risk they are smart enough to not build on it
@@jaad9848yeah right. Wait and see how long it takes for them to build
Fantastic discussion
Excellent analysis
Thank you Sir
Thank you Patrick
new to your channel and I appreciate the content 😊🇨🇦
Some places should be uninsurable.
Bsacially that or so expensive that you essentially fund the disaster up front like how its supposed to work in theory.
Instead the reinsurance money flows in a giant circle and in the end we all have to foot the massive bill that these Californian homeowners were supposed to have made if the government didn't force the rates to cancel coverage
The Federal government backs flood insurance, effectively guarenteeing the value of the properties in increasingly unsustainable flood zones. "Hundred-year flood" zones are seeing regular floods now.
They can't afford to back them anymore. Hence, our $37.3 debt!
$37.3 trillion.
@@colleenpeck6347 you can edit comments 😀
@@Stonegolem6 I'm actually amazed there isn't a bigger bait-and-switch problem because of it, too. For as much as UA-cam commenters are stereotyped as jerks, they (we) haven't abused the editing ability too badly. Editing is common, but it's generally honest in intent.
@@mal2ksc yeah I'm always just fixing an errant your/you're or fat fingered mistype.
State Farm did cancel polices, they sent out non-renewal notices months in advance, so that homeowners could get other insurance before the normal expiration date of their policies. It's the difference between ""'i m evicting you now" and "l'm not renewing your lease 6 months from now whe we know a wild fire is in 7"
The companies are generally not allowed by regulation to 'cancel' a policy mid term, unless there is fraud. But, you are correct in comparing it to an eviction, it also just sound harsher than non-renewal, or declining to renew, so the industry tries to avoid it but it's also why the pundits like to say cancelled.
I'm in Florida. They're canceling people for living in an older home, an over 10 year old water heater, and a less than 10 year old roof. We fortunately are still covered, but it's gone up from 3k a year to 9k a year in 2 years. The problem is the cost of everything goes up, but your pay doesn't. All of the value of productivity increases goes to someone else.
Scary stuff here, Patrick. Deep dives like this help us digest the reality of things, though. Thanks for the share!