BRUTAL Turn! Can She Really Fold A FLUSH Here?
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- Опубліковано 19 жов 2024
- By the time this high stakes poker hand concludes the turn, Annette Obrestadt has to be very happy. She has flopped a queen high flush and the pot is ballooning to six figures. However, Justin Smith puts her in a horrendous spot on the river with check-raise jam. Can she possibly get away from this? Should she?
As always on Poker Hands, Doug breaks down each street of action and shares his thoughts on how each player made their decisions.
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Annette is such a good player, folded full house against better full house at WSOP, folded triple aces in the turn against negreanu's full house and this too. She definitely has the reads and isn't afraid to go with them.
Annette's fold with the 44 when she had boat against boat is still one the the greatest lay downs I've ever seen.
Annette's lowkey a beast
Not really low key though. Anyone who knows her knows she’s absolutely goated.
She is legendary for never even depositing on PokerStars. Truly grinded from the bottom to the top.
She also is legend for winning an online tournement while never looking at her hole cards (maybe at the end she did I’m not 💯)
@@39offsuit She admitted to looking once, in a really big discussion at the FT
@ not anymore but Anette played like hundred years ago in poker evolution so she beated fields she played easily back then
Bullshit. I learned watching her beat the snot out of every single Team UB player. Debo, PokerHo, Annie Duke, Hellmuth, and the others did not dare toy with her. I never seen snap folds as fast as when Annette raised. Famous quote from opponent "As I held my head in my hands I struggled to figure out: had I trapped her or has she trapped me?"
Anette15 catches so much hate but the gal can play, I think thats part of the reason actually.
lol really , if she 3 bets preflop she wins , or folds preflop , but calling a preflop raise with q4 lol, and you think its a good play lol again
Yes, it's a good play. Your LOL criticism is stupid and just parroting Doug who was actually trolling you.
UA-cam top player?
What important tournaments have you ever won?
You're a donkey if you don't think there is merit in calling with Q4 as the Dealer with only two people behind you who are out of position against the pre-flop raiser. Her hand has a lot of equity here. You sound like the type of player who only plays the cards in your hands instead of analyzing the whole table.
joe leeman ....most Asian over play. But they have criminal money to back them. I deal to these kind, every day. And they lose, in laundering money through casinos. Amazing how much Asians lose.
Thanks for the vid. I would have liked to have your thoughts on whether Annette having the nut flush makes her decision any different than just the queen high. I would think it would make it a fold an even higher % because you block your opponent's single ace of spade bluffs like AsTx
Top fold. Top river analysis. Top vid. Merry Chrimbo Y'all
I remenber this girl folding a full house vs a bigger full
maybe shes just a nit lol and we dont see the times she hero folds and is wrong
Afiq Ahmad
She is
she may not be the sexiest girl on the pokertour but she is good player
Its a solid read. That's what makes the best poker players... the ones who can drop fantastic hands that most of us would stay in with.
have you seen her aggressive plays? She's not a nit. Ahe can even call with ace high.
Hey Doug. I'm watching this video and taking a dump at the same time.
pretty sick, you flopped a set of deuces but lost to the flush
Patrick Laffey I also splashed the pot.
Patrick Laffey Ahaha
It all ended at the river
Did you Flush?
My enjoyment factor of your videos is on an exponential curve. You requested more viewer involvement so here I am commenting/re watching/liking.
+jdls Thanks dude, appreciated!
Prob one of Polks best videos. I’ve seen a few, I like the videos, find his tips and breakdowns of hands to be all over the place when he breaks the hand down. This particular hand, I thought he walked it through pretty spot on. Good insights into exactly the thought processes of both players step by step. Well done!
If she had an Ace high flush, it would be even easier to fold since she blocks the nut flush draws, right?
Actually it would be the buttom of the bluff catching range, she needs to call with A high flush.
Doug did say, if she only calls with a boat, it would be profitable for her opponent to bluff in this situation. So she probably has to add nut flush into her calling range as a bluff catcher.
I believe Doug said smith should be bluffing with some comboes of As flush blockers and some tens meaning he should have a bluffing range of at least AsTh and AsTd. This means Annette should be catching with some comboes of second nut flush, probably ones which block the most likely playable AsXs hands such as KsQs, KsJs, and maybe some Ks(5,4,3,2)s. This assumes she allows Smith some bluffs which she might not and so she can fold exploitatively.
Thoughts, Doug?
Franciumflourine so with AsTh trips, it's a bluff?! not a thin value bet?
Nut flush isn't a bluff catcher. He could easily be shoving a Queen or King flush for value.
Queen flush is a bluff catcher though because I don't think he's shoving with any flush that it beats.
@@TKGriffiths Your wrong. No one pushing nut flush after a overbet on the river.
Interesting hand and a helpful analysis! Love them Polker hands! Happy holidays yall!
+JJ Bjo3rgvin Happy Holidays!
I hate when announcers call an insane flop like it's just an everyday flop.
not every flop leaves a possibility of Royal Flush u know
RayVitoles A flopped two pair and flopped flush is pretty crazy. They announced it like it was nothing.
Shut your stupid trap Ray- there is NO excuse for the inexplicably mild way he called that flop. I couldn't actually believe it.
Love your work Doug. The channel is coming along nicely and so far every piece of content is quality. Keep it up and Merry Christmas!
Great video series doug! Thanks for the time and effort!
Sick fold.
hey doug...i love ur videos..u r doing a great job..thnx sir😊
+Sahil Rajwani Thanks!
i m from india nd people here like u a lot....nd i learned a lot about poker by watching ur videos..thank you😁😊
Who has a bigger johnson. You or donger kim?
nah we don’t really like you
If only he had a bluff and tabled it... and was against Hellmuth. Happy holidays everyone!
Doug, you are one of the best at what you do with these poker videos. Your commentary is outstanding and spot on. Keep up the stellar work - it is greatly appreciated. Keep them coming!
Thank you for making such great videos... they taught me a lot! Thank you!!!! Happy Holidays 💖
Good job on the analysis of Poker hands, Thanks I play mostly live poker from 1-3, 2-5 to 5-10 and some games at the Aria.
One of the best folds I have ever seen. I would've been busted out.
Hey Doug, since smith is pretty much repping a boat here when he check shoves the river, do you think Annette would be able to make the fold if she had the nut flush instead? I'm thinking she won't be capable of folding that good.
Annette is really really good. She folded some amazing hands
Maybe Annette had a post it stuck over her holes cards, that may explain the call.
No production slow downs, we are your family now
If Justin has a hand like As10h should he be just be calling here or moving in? What hands should he be just calling here and what hands should he be moving in for value/moving in as a bluff? Loving the videos!
Such good analysis!
what site you play on dougy
What do you think of Huck's fold with A4 on the bb?
@Dougpolk, can you do a Pokerhands on the two hands you played in the 2015 WSOP 10K 6 max where you called a raise on the river against Holz (3 handed) with 2 pair (10 8) and compare that with your call with 2 pair (9d4d) on the river against Hav heads up?
Great video, as I rising poker player I have a great use of your advices Doug, tnx and keep up the good work.
I agree with the check call on the turn. At this level of play, I'm sure he is putting her on the flush, so he knows he's in total control. By not revealing the true strength of his hand, he'll maximize the pot size. The paired board is scary, so she's not going to get overly invested. In other words, she won't be going broke and will most likely fold if he bets too strong.
Annette.. the Robot Chicken... no emotion. no animation.. yes,, very strong player.. but, about as exciting as watching snow melt on tv... purely robotic moves, hardly talks, has the same facial expression no matter what. watched her play Phil H heads up..other than her clothes, nothing changed..
the new "poker" stars are sucking the life out of poker... its going to be relegated to airing at 2:30 am right after QVC.. cuz nobody of any worth will be watching it anymore..
DPTAZZZ Amen!
And people wonder why the poker boom died out. The commentators especially have had a hand in killing it. Gone are the days of Mike Sexton and Vince van Patton. Now we’re stuck with smug, over analytical punks who have devised unnecessary poker terms to sound smart. Saying phrases like “he just never has a 10 in this spot” or “he needs to balance his check call range in this spot”
These pompous kids think they have invented the wheel with how they act. Little do they know, all the older poker players have been using the same strategies for decades...just didn’t have silly names and phrases.
Blockers are overrated, The obsession with “ranges” has gotten silly.. A “range” doesn’t win a pot at showdown, a winning hand does. Determining a range of hands your opponent may have in a hand is very important obviously, but this over analyzing and unnecessary complication of poker has played a big role in potential new players steering clear...which is counterproductive to regular poker players. Being that is most likely dead money that is now gone.
Imagine her playing 3 way vs. Vanessa Rouso ( who has that look "Someone plz kill me" ), and Todd Brunson, who I never ever heard speak. The roof could fall down, none of them would show any emotions at all... Exactly right, players like her whining crying cunt "its so sick" ruins TV poker for people who wanna be entertained.
Please analyze the hand where obrestad folded a full house in the wsop main event
so is j10 loose or standard? can't be both.
Happy holidays ❤️ love and appreciate your videos!
Merry Christmas detective!!
thank you man you finally just got into the video :D
Can someone give me the link of full episode ?
Thanks in advance.
Don't know what episode it is but most poker shows can be found here
www.pokertube.com/tvshows
Thanks
Doug I'm surprised that you did not comment on Justins raise size ? Annette bets 30k and Justin jams for 66k... like in tourney play you hear the term more "fold equity". Justin really doesn't have the stack size to make a bluff here...or does he ? Curious to hear what you think ?
Cool hand and tips - thanks and happy holidays!
One of the sickest hands I've seen. Great play, Annette.
then you havent seen many lol
She was one of the best online players in the world. What a pleasure to watch her run over Team UB as a child. She had final tables almost everyday. She-ro!
please help me.....what does BOAT mean and what JAM in this video? Thanks!
i havent watched yet so i dunno the context but a boat is a fullhouse, and a jammed pot is a pot with many raises/re-raises
esiclene No, boat means full house lol
Doug is good at not revealing too much of his poker insight to his followers. Her river bet is bad because there is no way she is going to have amount of bluffs proportionate to the amount of her value hands. She is also never getting enough value from opponent's lighter calls or check raise jams, because of his stack size. Her bet sizes one this 1 tone board throughout the hand are bad too, especially after board pairs. I am not sold she is bombing pot sized bets after opponent check called on a 3 flush paired board with bluffs. It's blatant she has value there. It's obvious that Smith never has bluffs there, well, not nearly 15%
Been really enjoying your analysis's. Great video
Is the big bet good?, assuming he is calling most of his trips some of his jacks, not raising his flushes and never bluffing, or you should bet smaller and let him bluff some? btw turning As10 into a bluff would be sick :) I love how poker is so complex, that even decision on one street is affected by so many factors...
Actually it's a great hand to turn into a bluff, its the best bluffing hand in this exact situation. When she just flats on the button preflop it's unlikely she has JJ, and she MAY even raise 66 in a short handed game. which means that the only full houses include 10s and you've got one of them. You also have the Ace of spades which means she can't have the nut flush, so most of her range is flushes capped at K high. She goes bet, bet, bet which means she's most likely got a flush. The problem is that a raise to all in for such a small amount does not look like a bluff because the raise is for such a small amount relative to the pot. Even a K high flush is a tough call here because when someone raises preflop, check calls flop and turn, and then check shoves river IT LOOKS EXTREMELY STRONG. Her hand is nothing but a bluff catcher because his range includes full houses, quads and nut flushes, and hardly any bluffs.
In fact calling with A10s is arguably worse than shoving because you're only going to be beating bluffs. Whereas shoving gets you the same money from worse hands (them folding) and you *should* get all flushes to fold.
He means A of spades and off-suit 10. 10 of spades is on the board, so you can't hold that.
I see your point. However, she already tries her best to polarize her range, meaning that you will likely only see flushes or better or busted draws from her. So, your relative hand strength with A(s)T is probably not as relevant, as you do not beat her value range with it anyway. You block a T as well, making it even more unlikely that she overbets a T for thin value here. So, AsT really looks like the ideal hand to turn into a bluff, while you are interestingly more inclined to call her bluffs with some of your Tens without the nut flush blocker.
I don't think so. There's a possible flush on the board. If he bets his two-pair, the flush will definitely re-raise; it will then be too expensive to draw to a 4 outer. However, if he just checks, the flush will have to raise for value. The most she could raise is a pot sized bet. She value bets half the pot, giving the two pair pot odds to draw for a better hand.
doug, the hawk is looking extra fresh today. fantastic job as always.
How does Annette avoid this tough situation? Fold Qs4s pre.
Easy tell, after the 10 was flopped, Smith is breathing to the point of his shirt moving a lot more.
Right totally obvious
great great narrative by Doug, thanks
I don't get Doug's analysis of the river bet by Annette here - he says he likes the sizing because she can get value from Ts and Js but then he later suggests that Justin might want to use a hand like AsJx or a hand with a Tx in it because that blocks full houses. So if Justin's trips have so little showdown value against a 30k bet that he can conceivably turn the hand into a bluff, what the hell is Annette ever getting called by in this spot? I'd go 10k in her shoes given that her line as played looks incredibly strong but is beaten by all the boats and two flushes so is in a horrible spot against a raise
Can you told me what is the name of this TV show and on which channel can I find it ?
Poker After Dark. You can find old episodes at Poker Central. One of the best poker shows of all time. They haven't made new episodes in years... Enjoy!
Messerwon thanks you so much !
Merry Christmas Doug! Have a good one
Doug Polk says it like only Kenny Rogers could. "You've go to know when to hold em, and know when to fold em."
I prefer that Justin make a small raise on the turn to setup a river shove. There are way too many hands in Annette's range that will check back the river, or any least bet-fold the river. And in case Annette does have a nut hand, like a flush or 10x.. the money will likely get in on the turn anyway. So, I think he lost a bit of value in the hand.. he just got lucky that Annette had exactly a flush, so he got some river value. Generally, a 3 street slow play oop is relative -EV play when compared to more aggressive lines, especially on dynamic boards.
Hey Doug watching the Aussie Million 2015 and saw the 7-4 vs Antonius and I was wondering if you could do a hand analysis of that
He did :)
Pretty sick fold but, then again, when you choose a polarized sizing with only the 10th nuts I guess you can fold to any raise.
Ya cuz having something like T5 here is so relevant.
play tighter on the button and you never have to make that river decision XD
How much should Justin be betting on the flop? 2/3 pot or 3/4 pot?
Merry Xmas Doug, to you and your family.
Annette is folding this all day every day dont need to watch
She folded a flopped full house once because the other guy moved in and she guessed he had a higher one. She was right.
Happy holidays, Doug. All the best from Scotland!
I love a good overbet value fold!
Merry Xmas to the Polk fam!
if we're justin and bluffing all in river with Tx and AsJx, then what is our hero call range? pretty sick hand and good analysis
Patrick Laffey it wouldnt be a hero call because she has a strong hand and the raise size isnt huge. but since she is showing much strenght with that 30k size bet, his shove is very strong. i like her bet size cus 1. she gets good valu for her hand and 2. if she is facing a raise she will be able to fold easely and i dont beleive her when she says its the hardest she ever made. she is kinda polarising her range and a raise bluff would be suicidle really. someone making that kind of bluff is like closing eyes, cross the street and cross ur fingers. u can get away with it with luck for 1-2 times but ur opponent will ajust easely. theres nothing u can do against that kind of play except ajust. u dont go and call that out of no where
Yes, I was thinking the same thing. But I guess since we're not bluffing that often. We still have enough of those kind of hand in our range to call with?
Patrick Laffey low flushes
We don't bluff everytime we have AJ or Tx, that would be way too many bluffs. You can choose some of the Tx to call with.
love the analysis as always :)
notification crew checking in from hospital.
#bazam
#savedoug
+MonsterTVchannel You OK dude?
Doug Polk Poker I'm OK bro. i crashed my 44 tonne lorry. Some dick swerved in front of me so I swerved, and it went over.
just got out the hospital. Am bit bashed up.
on the plus side I can re watch all your videos over the next few weeks.
Thanks for asking bro. :-)
he needs just $1 sent to his pokerstars doug and he'll be ok,.you think you can spare?
Be well, man!
Great video as always!
Shoutout to Doug's cute one liners at the end of his vids
Huck Seed's table chat is hilarious.
that's the reason why I don't like the poker game ... the formula of how many cold games a gamble game can stand is ... (quantitive amount of bettings x winning odd) x total amount of possibilities ... because of the drive of the opponent to go all -in this all let your quantitive amount of bettings decrease enormously, so the poker game in general can not stand a lot of cold games ... this is a good example ... even a flush (which is statistically a very good potential winning match for you) you (sometimes) need to fold... if this kind of similar situation occurred in roulette there's no way you could not make a bet, but in poker even this you need to fold with the 'right' read...
The overbet before the fold is what is baffling. The overbet gave her great pot odds to call just 30 something more. If you do that I think you have to stack off. Why not bet half pot then fold to all in or call a smaller raise that would have been less than your overbet
Doug is rich because he teaches people to play bad. I promise you he's not teaching you how to make the most money. He just leaves people confused with all the angles of his approaches. I could give an extremely helpful comment about Annette's play but why would I want everyone knowing what I know and have figured out?
Hey Doug, I was wondering, does your barber think it's still 2006, or is that all on you?
Hi Doug love the videos - best part of the day! can u do one on kassouf's deal that he did at EPT - Max silver did a great write-up of it on his twitter page - effectively he took less than chip chop in order to say that he was the winner and got the photo. worst deal ever IMO but interested in your views and your views on deals in general - like your piece of Jonas and d peters refusing deal at last EPT main etc etc many thanks
The way the hand played out made it a much easier fold than this was cracked up to be
When are we gonna see Doug playing live again? :/
Doug, please consider taking at least a few weeks 2 make a profit of 10 big blinds per hour in a 5/10 or 10/20 No Limit game. I know you are a busy man but I think it would be quite interesting to see if you could pull this one off young master
BTW, Chris Ferguson did a personal bankroll challenge many years ago where he turned $1 into 20,000$ online. Too bad he chose the dark side but no one can deny he is the ultimate when it comes to being an analytical poker player
Marty Masters Right, although Ferguson is rightly hated today for his nefarious role in the Full Tilt scandal, his bankroll challenge was quite a feat. Whenever people assert that poker is more luck than skill, this is one of the strongest instances of empirical evidence with which such assertions can be countered.
PaterTenebrarum1 You articulation is damn good. I'm deeply spiritual & Chris is an atheist so it cosme to dislike him for a while but a part of me was really happy when he made it to heads-up play at this year's WSOP
*it caused me to dislike him*
PaterTenebrarum1 Funny Twitter video, this guy came Within 2 feet of Chris while he was playing the guy was standing on the rail during this year's WSOP & he said Chris Ferguson on behalf of the entire poker Community I want to say f*** you!!!!!!
I have to say, the way you explained the approach to bluffing in this particular hand is like an example from game theory lecture. So, memes aside, have you ever studied it?
he's breathing pretty hard when he hit the full house
Annette is a big online player and she reads the board as good as anyone. The long wait on the paired board was the tell.
this must have been in the period when young poker players had the habit of talking with that uber cool croak in the back of the throat... Annette demonstrates it very well here. I prefer the more natural voices like sommerville and polk. : )
Annette should have checked the river. A lot of likely hands beat her, and hands which would call (or shove) vs her large bet would beat her.
As played though up to that point, it really looks like he's got a hand...but not a great hand. All these education vids preach "will you get called with second best hand?" I think 10's make the tough call a good amount of the time there, I think Jacks probably fold a good amount of the time. I think if she bets 22k or so she gets the call from the jacks and 10's almost all of the time, if villain has a full house he's jamming and putting her in a tough spot either way. I woulda liked a little smaller bet from her, but I'm not as good as Doug admittedly.
On another note I think it's really really harmful to make a fold like that on TV where everyone can see it. I never show or brag about the big folds personally, puts a big "bluff me!" target on your back, then you get bluffed a lot and wonder if you're getting bluffed or not all the time...you get the picture.
aabron4123 the point I'm talking about is the river. It was checked to her, and IMO she was at the classic point where, if she bets, worse hands may likely fold and better hands will call or worse. She should have checked and gone to showdown.
Disagree, 10's are calling that down a lot of the time. Jacks may call it sometimes, but I don't think it makes much sense for Smith to have a Jack here. A10 with ace of spades is a hand that could take this line. You're missing a lot of value if you just never bet the river without the nuts...people will call with a lot more than you think, especially at lower stakes.
aabron4123 you have to respect that flop. Anyone betting in that hand has to keep in mind a flush can be held. There's a fair chance that anyone calling feels they have value against a flush. By the river they're either convinced of it, or don't feel it's worth going after the pot. He checked the river (either giving up or trapping). IMO at that point it's a pretty classic case for her of getting called only by better hands (or perhaps a smaller flush). It would have been a good choice to make this particular hand (no, not any hand that's not the nuts) go to showdown at that point -- given the flop and the betting and the checking. Again, at that point the response to your bet is either going to be folding (and no hand with a king flush or better is going to fold), or shoving -- suggesting a trap.
I agree Annettes hand is not one I would ever have played to begin with on the button. Maybe call and that is it.
in order for you to be bluffing with AsJx or a 10, aren't you always putting your opponent on this specific hand - a non ace high flush that could potentially fold to a shove?
I smelt sarcasm when you said phil hellmuth always spot on with his reads!
Yes? Any time a pair is on the board, assume your opp can have a full boat. If they bet aggressively when a potential flush is on the board (and you have it), it's likely they have a boat. Anyone that bets aggressively on that board has something good because it's likely the other person has something good as well. I.e. a bluff would be dumb AF.
I just don't think Justin is ever bluffing here. I mean if he bluffed with an Ace blocker and talked like this, he would be my new hero but instead he's talking like this cause he's a donky. Annette just told everybody that she's got a flush but not the nut flush and Justin is still going "you can have anything..." No Justin, she literally just told you what she had...
Doug, two questions: First, don't you think Smith tanked too long on the turn? It seemed (at least to me) to start to look like a Hollywood. Second, do you think Obrestad bet out too much on the river? I think 15k into the 60k pot would have accomplished the same thing, just not hung herself out so far.
Nah 15 is basically begging for him to come over the top and then the decision is even harder because the chance of him raising on a bluff increases when the bet is so small
Did you really end with the Kenny Rogers?! Duuuuuuuude.
Doug could the guy on the river not have just counted his chips, and raised by whatever amount would leave him with around 10k, this showing that he isn't too confident with his hand, making the girl or inclined to call, which would win him money? It's quite obvious she'd fold if he goes all in
Know when to Hold'em and know when to fold'em. Doug comes up with the best lines!
The biggest fold I made was QQ on Q848A runout playing live a couple of years ago, and was right. So yeah, a queen high flush on a paired bored, cool story bro!
So you were putting him on just a single combo of quad 8s and 3 combos of aces full, and nothing else? You may have been correct that specific time, but I am not convinced it was a correct play long term.
@@ozrenbalic6051 I put him on exactly aces full actually. It was live small stakes. The way that player played and the way the hand went till the river and his demeanor at different stages it was the only thing that made any sense to me. Live small stakes you can occasionally make these ridiculously exploitative plays against the right opponents. I only found out I was right because another short stack was all in so he had to show his hand.
good video thanks
theres reasons why shes making a big valu bet...1. get good valu and 2. make it easy to fold if hes raising cus theres no way hes bluffing when shes showing so much strengh.
well she also had to fear K or A flush apart from the full house, maybe she should be a bit less at the river if she intended to fold to a raise
AWESOME READ!!!!!!!!!!!
I disagree. I don't like the overbet. Period! I've been in coolers where I lost a king high flush to the nut flush, and I never overbet the pot thinking I had the nuts. I bet for value on the river. If my opponent goes over the top, I have to make a decision. With flush vs. flush, the decision is much harder to make. However, with a paired board, there's an escape route if you leave yourself an out. By overbetting the pot, you're trapped and out a shitload of money.