Helmuth would have folded... (after looking at the camera and saying 'oh fishy fishy. Look at this f$%*ing internet kid, hitting a full-house on the river, just when I flop a straight. Can you belive it?!')
OMG what a sweet analysis. Thank you for sharing your beautiful mind with us in such a comprehensive yet to point the point way. I really loved the speed and comprehension at which you explained just the right amount of detail.
BTW you should really post your analysis on steemit. We have a few poker players there. You can post your youtube videos there and you get paid for every vote you receive on top of what youtube pays.. It's a blockchain based social media site and it might yield a lot more rewards for you
Do you really think my comment deserves a response like this ? Hint : no it doesn't. This video is instructive for any player that's neither a beginner or a top player, which is quite a large category.
yea if i made this bluff in the games there would be no value at all. Anything remotely good is gonna call like a donkey. im probably getting called down by any queen with a decent kicker, A7 maybe who doesnt believe i have 5 or Q. any over pairs. any 5x, too many hands to list lol. (i play micro limits tournaments) People call in preflop bets with K10 suited in these games Hell A7 would probably jam the turn and just say they were ''unlucky"' if they were beat. Id practically never fold a straight here for the same reason. If i can beat trip 5s then im good and ill just have to take my chances. Ill fold the dummy end of straights, ill fold straights to flush potential, or when the board has 2 pairs etc. But in this hand forget about it. You would value bet your arse off with a straight and just hope for the best. And once you got your 7-4 called on the turn, you might be tempted to make a hero call to a river raise, but no value to re-raise
I actually think this line is brilliant, but I think it was just against the wrong player. Anything I've ever seen of Antonius just doesn't have him folding in this spot. Although, for Antonius to agonize and go into the tank for so long is a huge credit to Doug's play. But as someone else said, Antonius/Dwan/Ivey won't fold in this spot. Even Negreanu has proven he won't fold in this spot. He'll take the cooler just to avoid getting run over in the future. However, I do think this move works against more nitty players like Hellmuth. Conservative guys like Hellmuth take a ton of pride in making potentially huge laydowns. I don't see Hellmuth remotely making this call.
Yeah Patrick isn’t big big on folding. I saw him play PLO and he was like a calling station even in three way pots with over calls. Good play but against the wrong customer. Patrick could have also put him on a missed flush right ?
I could potentially see Dwan or Ivey folding here. Neither of them are nits like Hellmuth, but both have demonstrated they're capable of making big laydowns when they have to. Antonius on the other hand is just a massive calling station, so I definitely agree this was the wrong opponent to try this against.
One of the gutsiest bluffs in televised poker... great for the fans. Interesting to hear you put him on the straight on the river. With my limited poker brain, (even with you holding 74) I might have skewed Patrick more to boats seeing as he overbet river, but thats just something you see a lot in midstakes poker tourneys. Loving this series, GG
Beautiful example of relative hand strength. When a player has a straight they're usually at the top of their value range but Patrik is actually at the bottom here. And he flopped the nuts!!
Great video Doug. My game has improved massively thanks to your videos and I recently won my first tournament thanks to your preflop guide and these types of videos. Best finish I had before winning that tournament 3 months ago was 5th. Awesome video.
This bluff hand makes total sense in this spot and I think Antonius called more because he didn't know much about you and your game. Considering this info that he had few information on your thinking pattern, the only think I'm not a big fan about is the size of the river raise. 210k-250k looks more like you would want to extract the value from your opponent's straight with your boat. Also....5k in 18k on the turn looks weird and often weak-ish in a live full ring cash game from the "new face" player at the table, from an "oldtimer's" perspective. Saying that, thank you for all the honest and quality content you put online, Doug! Inspirational, fun, and valuable for everyone wanting to take poker seriously and study the game.
Perfect play and analysis! Not many have the balls to bluff Patrick here and it was the brilliant because you had the blockers to the boats. Well played Doug. You just gained one more fan. TeamDoug
This analysis doesn't really make sense though. Patrik is supposed to fold a straight because Doug can have lots of full houses. But that assumes that Patrik somehow knows that Doug is limping 44/55/77/QQ in the small blind. How would he know that? He would more naturally assume - incorrectly - that Doug would raise those hands pre-flop and therefore Patrik will be greatly discounting the chance that Doug has a full house.
It's not about whether you get called down with a str8. It's about removal of big hands. Antonius also has over pairs and counterfeited his 2 pair. He didnt think he is always folding str8s.
Lmao I'm slow in the head. Didn't realize why it was funny for a full 5 Mississippi then I face palmed in Real life. GEE GEE Muah friend GG. The double Pun ftw
Beautiful hand. This really exemplifies modern range based poker thought and it's especially great because it contradicts so much old school strategy, like "don't limp pre", "what's with the weird 1/3 lead" "why are you trying to bluff him off a straight" etc. It's like science vs religion in a sense. The difficult and right way to think vs the easy and wrong way.
are you serious? Is his way gospel? Are you playing micros? He doesn't have to bluff here ever if PA is never folding. The correct play is to fold and that would exploit PA.
Solid analysis Doug! I'm a 500z grinder and was remember wondering whether you were actually balanced while I saw this hand. Are you 100% you would play your boats this way? If so, respect! I believe Antonius maybe did not think so, which made him call in the end. Considerations about perceived ranges are sometimes confusing to me in terms of exploitative adjustments. Either way, do you think his call was good? I believe you are extremely polarized that it is a tough spot regarding min def frequency and am wondering whether he should be calling with 5x instead (he then probably only has 75 and 54, maybe 65). If he knows you are always bluff jamming 74 then he has even less combos that he can be calling with here. I believe 86 is still borderline.
Hey Doug, you say you would make this raise for value with any full house you have here (or quads). So that would be a total of 28 combos for value (3 of 44, 6 of 54, 6 of 57, 6 of 5Q, 3 of 77, 3 of QQ, 1 of 55). Let me know if this assumption is wrong since 44 and 54 might be a little too thin, especially if you expect a fold from a straight. If so, then on the river you're giving Patrik odds to call of 212/(212 + 456) = 31.7%, so ideally you'd want to bluff with 13 combos here since 13/(13 + 28) is also 31.7%. We have 9 combos of 74, but what are the other 4 combos we'd want to bluff with?
It comes down to GTO, Doug needs to bluff here a good percentage of the time so that when he does have a full house he is more likely to get paid off when he does have the boat, and his opponent has the straight, and Antonius needs to call here a reasonable amount of time or he'll get bluffed too often.
I agree with everything you said and did this hand my opinion as to why it didn't work out for you is that Patrick's read on you and his instincts on that hand caused him to call. Loved the video more please!
Next level shit. You have made me think about poker in a completely different way and I've been playing over 10 years. I've never seen Patrik screw his face up and be put in such a spot before. Thanks Doug, you are a poker genius.
If he only calls full houses Antonius is folding way too often, and would be exploitable. If Antonius bets 5x on the flop, then due to him blocking full houses that'd be an ideal river call, allowing him to fold straights on the river. However if Antonius checks 5x on the flop, and mostly has straights for value, he has to call with some percentage of them. Perhaps calling 68 and folding 63 could be a way to balance this, or only calling 68/63 without a club. Overall, calling 68 without a club is likely to be a balanced play from Antonius if he's not betting 5x on the flop, and folding would be too exploitable, despite Polk's clear range advantage.
i agree with all your reasons. However, you mentioned that Antonius was tilted because of losing a huge side bet. Don't you think that bluff against a tilted player is a lot less likely to end well?
Yes that was what Doug was hinting at by making the reference to it earlier. However he makes the point that the tilt was only speculation and it didn’t form part of his hand analysis when he was playing. He was leaving us to comment about!
Great analysis . When I saw that hand I wasn't really sure what is purpose to call Patrick"s raise at the turn. Now it completely make sense. You know his hand range is cap. He is very unlikely has full house in his range. 5 is obviously good for your range than his. Cuz He is most likely gonna check for 5 as pot control unless he is got 56 combo.! Your full house range is much bigger than his.the key of this play you got blocker hand 74 plus he never has 77. Great play and great analysis. Thanks Doug Polk. Becoming big fan of you. Sorry my language.
Wow. Amazing analysis. I only got to scratch the surface of advanced play by watching your videos. Thank you Doug! One question: how can you do this analysis during the hand? How much time do you take with each decision? I mean it looks like you wrote this down just for the video. I don't see how could you do this quickly when the hand is going on.
The analysis in the comment section is actually much better than I expected. Good channel. From plays like this, I can see how Doug manages to be a problem for otherwise very successful players.
Doug, you got a lot of respect of Ivey after this hand. Very well played hand and I remember watching this hand and doing my own theory. Perfect logic.
thoughts on patrick's call? what would you do here in patrick's shoes vs another balanced online player, say 2014 ike who was in this game as well, for example?
When you construct a small blind range in the way you did, how do you decide what is appropriate? In other words, in your case, the cost of opening many hands means that you need to limp your good hands too, in order to protect the weaker hands. The cost of this is that you can't aggressively raise and play your stronger hands (at least before the turn). That means you'll get less value overall from your stronger hands. An alternative approach could be to limp most of your hands, but (let's say) raise only your most premium hands (let's say 5% of your range). I'm not saying the alternative is better - I'm asking, how do you know which approach is best? How do you go about making a decision like that?
HI Doug apologies if i missed your explanations in the vid but i believe you skipped on a couple vital things: - turn lead sizing. what was the purpose of betting 1/4 pot? was it to induce a raise? are you credibly ever leading that small of a sizing on the turn with a boat? does Antonious also give you credit on the river for a boat given the peculiar turn play - River bet by Antonious. what was your read on the sizing by him on the river? merge with overpair? Thanks
how do you play this hand if youre in patricks spot? i feel like he played it pretty standard up until the river. Do you like his overbet and once you overbet c/r do you call in patricks spot if you know youre playing against a player like yourself who will have bluffs here.
Good breakdown on the hand Mr.Polk. But considering it was live, how does it matter if you merge your ranges when you bet on the turn with that smallish bet? I mean online the merging idea has a lot of value, but you have to assume that Antonious is aware of this merge strategy in order for all your weaker hands to be protected.
Would your strategy have varied if PA bets say 28k or so instead of the 90k he bets? Do you consider check raise all-in as a stronger move that better indicates more strenth?
My questions are about the river check raise. What did you do to determine the size of the check raise? He bet 90k, and you raise a little more then 3x his raise leaving only 139k behind. If you could go back, would you change your raise sizing? Do you think check-raising all in might've been a better/worse play? Thanks for the insight into your play. Enjoy following you on Twich/UA-cam.
Hi Doug! Great video and thanks for the analysis! When you bet 302k to win 154k as a bluff, you need to get a fold > 2/3 of the time. with him having 32 possible straights (36 and 68) and 5 full-house combos (discounting 77/QQ as he would raise that pre), and no bluffs (since he re-raised on the turn), this means he would have to fold 80% of his straights here. Would you have folded most of your straights here if you were in his shoes? From his view point, your range can include any sort of combo draws which would go for a bluff so he wouldn't fold 100% of the straights, right?
What a ballsy move. I think your play was creative enough that it of work. That raise on the river really looks a full house based on Antonious already raising the turn. With you having blockers to the nuts, it's convincing enough that you have it.
Skeptics: "Blockers don't matter much in general" Doug @ 2014 Aussie Millions cash game: "Hold my beer..." Doug @ 2018: "?" (aka what would you do differently today Doug? Obviously preflop and OTF less rigid/passive, but especially OTT/OTR?)
Doug, would you also have an other strategy on the turn nowadays? That's the only problem I have with this hand. I think you should split your range on the turn because a most of your hands don't want to take that line. Furthermore I still don't get the betsize. With valuehands you give him direct odds to hit and with bluffs you almost don't have any fold equity. Thanks, enjoyed it :)
When he leads out with a weak / block bet on the board-pairing turn and flats the raise, Antonius knows most of what he needs to know, namely that his straight is still good. With a very blank queen on the river, it should be an insta-muck from Doug. If everyone who's a winning player at 25c/50c knows that all Doug can be selling it 55 or QQ, and that Patrick is paying for those all day long, you have to wonder if there's any level at all at which Doug has a long-term positive expectation.
Doug, the big question in this hand is, if you 3bet some or many of your full houses on the Turn. In Patrik's shoes I am inclined to think so, at least some percentage of the time. Still a decent bluff and good explanation!
lol im quite sure that 3betting boats would be pretty hilariously bad in that spot oop against someone decent. like what other stuff do you lead/3bet there, only value you want to get it in? D:
having a 7 and a 4 blocks a lot of boats and its a very gutsy bluff but you mentioned on the turn analysis that your lead is repping a 5. Doesn't that reduce the number of hands you have that can be boats? basically only q5 or a variety of turned boats. Also isnt a turned boat likely to check and keep playing in flow ? Wondering if the turn action is what ultimately makes antonius call. What is ur take on maybe not having lead turn making the river bluff more likely to go through? or do you think its not necessarily a big factor?
tklink81 he is not representing a 5 while beting OTT, he is just making an statement that this 5 its better for his range of hands, than its for Patrics. He is donking this turn whit every bluff and value hand he has OTT. Its just a way of protect all his hands in this spot and being balanced, so you can see a 5X, QQ, JJ, 74, 75, straights, flush draws, etc, etc. Its an intricate balanced bet.
ok so basically the lead on the turn is saying that regardless of whether i am bluffing or not this 5 is better for my range of hands and its not a good card for you. I hear doug mention "protect his range" in a lot of his analysis. is this an example of it? i thought it was a way of keeping value and bluff ranges wide and not announcing the strength of one s hand.
tklink81 its still a protection if that 5 didnt came in that situation, Doug certanly would had x/c or x/r depending of his strategy and the turn card. He is taking the line that makes more sense 4 his range of hands, depending of how the board develops. And of course it doesnt have to do anything whit the strength of his hand at the time, but of his entire range and how the cards had an impact in it. Therefor, Patric or any pro on that table (great pros) cant make explotations and have to play whit caution and balance their games too if they dont wanna be autoexploited.
doug, it's probably very unbalanced but I don't know if we need to be balanced if Antonius calls straights on the river with this action. is there any merit to clicking back his turnbet and betting big on the river?
Two VERY clear reasons why your bluff was called. 1. You may know that your strategy was to take check call lines, but Patrik wouldn't have known that. In a limped pot, flopped sets don't want to give other limped hands a shot at catching up for cheap on such low connected drawy flops. Leading out or check raising are generally the best way to accomplish this. You did neither. This narrows your boat range hands to 45, 57 and Q5. Another thing to mention is that a check raise would easily represent a semibluff with clubs, and pros will tend to use this flop texture opportunistically to build the pot without necessarily giving away the strength of their hands. 2. Your lead on the turn was tiny. If a player has a boat on the turn, he definitely wants to bet bigger (or check raise) in case an action killing card like a 6 of clubs or really any club or 3 comes on the river. Also, players tend to lead small when they want to name their own price to see the river, and even though you called the check raise, that probably stuck in his mind as an "information" bet.
lol it is actually quite more complex than what it appears your took on the river decisions are.(re: it is either bad bluff or bluff call). It actually can be, and obs is a take it spot for Doug there, as he has to have bluffs some of the time, granted the fashion he arrives to that xR otr is aligned with his strategy and even though Antonius flopped straight the fact is that on the river after the xraise he beats only bluffs really. Since Doug should generally have more value combos than bluffs in such spot he is actually, fairly generally speaking losing (antonius is) than winning after the call he makes. THat does not mean however, that if he calls and is wrong his call was bad, and the same goes for Doug, he expects to get called some of the time, and he will, and his bluff will be showed but does not mean that it was a bad bluff really. Important point is what the reasoning was behind their actions and from this video is quite apparent that Doug does not like randomly clicks and spazzes his money around. Both of them, even though may be doing matematically and GTO sound decisions at the same time, are expecting to a)their bluff being called some of the time and b) their hero call being bad and loosing and c) hypothetically when PA folds he will get bluffed some of the time that's the way it is. And all of this is quite correct.
Doug, this analysis was fantastic and this is my favourite hand video so far! There are a few things that confuse me, though. You said you limp every hand that you want to play from the SB but still limp 74o which to me makes it seem like you're just about ready to play 100% of hands. Then if every hand becomes a check, you usually have about 50-55% of hands that would likely want to continue (50 when you limp
Albeit a not very complex tidbit, I wish you never mentioned the '2 pair-paired boards-counterfeit to bluff' note. Such a large amount of players just give up in those spots. NOW THEY'RE GOING TO START BLUFFING ME, THANKS DOUG. Ps. Really enjoy your channel. Thank you for putting in the time to do it well.
Hey doug thanks for doing this video! love these poker hands glad you listened to my suggestion I understoon why u check raised with blockers but loved the in dept analysis
Hi Doug. I don't play a lot this year, but the passed 6 years I have. My observation on the turn is that you bet the 5 pretty fast. In my experience, fast bets after a card has been revealed tends to lead to a lot of tells. Experienced players do take a bit of time before making a decision. Can you tell me if that is a relevant tell for you? It seems that you reacted quite quickly and didn't make a big decisions. Were you committed to the play on the flop?
just for curious, have you talked this hand with Patrik? would like to know, what size of a re-raise he would have folded? anyway, really nice hand (Y)
Nice video Doug. It all makes sense. However, isnt also important how other players at the table see or know your strategy? Like the thing with that sb limping range, checking whole range OTF etc. If Patrick doesnt know this he is more likely to give u different ranges so your plan is less likely to work, or am I wrong? BTW: How come it didnt worked? Did he called cause he was tilted? Did he make a mistake? Or is there a chance he sensed something sitting next to you which helped him to make a decision? Did he call cause he was probably tilted a bit? Or is there a possibility he actually plays at higher level than u?
Hey man, Absolutely LOVING your videos. I've known how to play for years, but I've never tried to learn the strategies and such to play WELL. This is only my 2nd day of learning, and watching your videos, so a ton of what you say goes right over my head. But with each video I'm picking up on more and more, and I just can't get enough! So thank you for all these videos! I just have one simple question for this one...What is the reason that the broadcast doesn't show Antonius' cards until showdown, the way most televised poker tournaments do? Thanks again, man! Keep up the great work!
I really like the play as soon as the flop is dealt. Preflop, I have a 180 degree different stragety that works really well for me, where I am just very aggressive in stealing, restealing, squeezing etc., so I could rep all these hands if I would ever limp in on the SB. But Doug is correct that this is a play you absolutely need to be able to execute in order to balance your range, especially on the river. I only think that a shove (441k instead of 302k) would have been better, since you have so many value hands in that spot that you probably would have check-shoved a boat in this situation, therefore, you should shove your bluffs, too.
Hi, im a low/mid zoom grinder. Currently I mainly just have a 2x SB strategy, but up to what levels do you think limping SB is still applicable in online games? Esp if BBs arent generally strong players and you can just autoprofit with min steals up to around 50z?
Hi Doug, great video. I was just wondering how you would play this hand today? I noticed you said you have changed your strategy since then. Thank you!
I remember at the end of the video, Antonius said something like "I was going to fold but my head keeps spinning with you bet size so I just have to call"
I remember this hand very well. This was the hand that made me want to see move videos of hands you're involved in. It takes massive ba..courage to raise on the river facing a large bet. After listening to your analysis, I think it is very well justified. Also Patrick's looks show you how effective of a play it is. He made a reluctant call. The one where everyone says in their head "how can I be this unlucky.. f it call" anyway on a side note, I'm a complete poker scrub compared to you. I play 1-2 cash live. I like live better than online although I know it's much easier to bank roll manage online (still a college student). I'm taking a break to build up a bankroll sufficient for live 1-2. How many buyins or total amount would you recommend. I'm a pretty aggressive and creative type of player.
Is it jus tme or is all of Doug's videos pretty quiet? It's not a problem really because I can just up the volume but compared to other videos I watch these are quiet.
Hi Doug... I was hoping you would tell us what would you do if you were playin with antonius hand (86)... In that same position if the action on the flop and turn would be exactly the same, would you call that raise on the river against patrik, ivey or dwan? Thanks for the analysis btw :-)
Two questions for Professor Polk: 1.) Would you have been less likely to run that 300k bluff if you weren't up over 200k in the session? (That 200k cushion has to make it an easier bluff. No?) 2.) Was any part of your decision based on your opponent? Antonius is not known for being a nit and has a history on TV of calling down huge bluffs with marginal hands.
Did u considered that str8 is the top of Patrick range in this situation and he shouldn't be folding it that often, when u make the play? Or u just consider the option that ur range was so much stronger? Btw, did he said if u give some kind of tell who helped him make the decision?
Great analysis and concept Doug. From Patrik's perspective, what do you think is the top of his folding range/bottom of his calling range here? Do you think he folds 5X? Do you think he's over betting his entire range here, or is there any possibility of a sizing tell present?
though to be fair this is the hand where I first watched Polk boss it and make a monster bluff, and just watching Antonius squirm was probably worth it, I cannot recall any spot where he ever squirmed in any televised poker event. It took him a moment to realize 74 didn't have him beat because he was so sure he ran in to a boat. Great stuff! btw genuine question, I see you lead small on the turn a lot when its a better card for your range than your opponents but why so small? why not do 50-70 percent of the pot?
How big was the sample of hands that were folded to you and you limbed to his bb? He might not even have picked up on you beeing able to have your whole range in that spot.
as played with the limp pre and the flop check.. why would betting a 5 be wrong on the flop.. I would totally bet any piece of the board if sb limps and checks to me. really interested to know why that's bad.
Awesome vid Doug. Really appreciate what you do. I have a RIO-sub and let's just say I'm less than amused by the level of humour of guys like Tyler Forrester and Ben "Grandmaster of Nerds" Sulsky so watching your vids is quite relieving :)
wow great analyses, reminded me of your scoop win where you overbet with trips and he shoved over it on the river with a canadian full house. Could you give insight of the reversed thought rpocess on that hand? Keep up the good work doug
![Patrik Antonius STUNS The ENTIRE Poker Table! [Old School vs New School]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/v6Jk3_KasRU/mqdefault.jpg)
Helmuth would have folded...
(after looking at the camera and saying 'oh fishy fishy. Look at this f$%*ing internet kid, hitting a full-house on the river, just when I flop a straight. Can you belive it?!')
The Patrik T-850 model includes 'soul read' capability.
Doug made a pretty obvious mistake on the river by not chanting "FOOOOOOOOLD"
Doug, I sincerely have to say that this video is brilliant. Worth so much. Incredible play, it takes so much intelligence to pull this off.
move up to where they respect your raises
NVG showed up
OMG what a sweet analysis. Thank you for sharing your beautiful mind with us in such a comprehensive yet to point the point way. I really loved the speed and comprehension at which you explained just the right amount of detail.
BTW you should really post your analysis on steemit. We have a few poker players there. You can post your youtube videos there and you get paid for every vote you receive on top of what youtube pays.. It's a blockchain based social media site and it might yield a lot more rewards for you
2016: I'm here to play guys!
2020: I'm done guys.
Not really, it’s one match and I’m even convinced it’s actually going to happen. I hope it does, but idk. DNegs and Polk are both weird guys.
Your best video so far ! The insight is insanely instructive for players like me. Thanks.
Do you really think my comment deserves a response like this ? Hint : no it doesn't. This video is instructive for any player that's neither a beginner or a top player, which is quite a large category.
lol
yea if i made this bluff in the games there would be no value at all. Anything remotely good is gonna call like a donkey. im probably getting called down by any queen with a decent kicker, A7 maybe who doesnt believe i have 5 or Q. any over pairs. any 5x, too many hands to list lol. (i play micro limits tournaments)
People call in preflop bets with K10 suited in these games
Hell A7 would probably jam the turn and just say they were ''unlucky"' if they were beat. Id practically never fold a straight here for the same reason. If i can beat trip 5s then im good and ill just have to take my chances. Ill fold the dummy end of straights, ill fold straights to flush potential, or when the board has 2 pairs etc.
But in this hand forget about it. You would value bet your arse off with a straight and just hope for the best.
And once you got your 7-4 called on the turn, you might be tempted to make a hero call to a river raise, but no value to re-raise
Could you leave jesus alone please
hey Doug, big friend of you and thank you for your thoroughly explanation. Just wonder how your stategy different on playing this hand in 2017?
I actually think this line is brilliant, but I think it was just against the wrong player. Anything I've ever seen of Antonius just doesn't have him folding in this spot. Although, for Antonius to agonize and go into the tank for so long is a huge credit to Doug's play. But as someone else said, Antonius/Dwan/Ivey won't fold in this spot. Even Negreanu has proven he won't fold in this spot. He'll take the cooler just to avoid getting run over in the future. However, I do think this move works against more nitty players like Hellmuth. Conservative guys like Hellmuth take a ton of pride in making potentially huge laydowns. I don't see Hellmuth remotely making this call.
PAT COULD HAVE HAD A 5 AND HAD HIM CRUSHED ON THE FLOP
@@RLMUD Look at your keyboard. Look at the left shift button. Look up one. Press that.
@@jasondoeshoops I JUST PRESSED MINE NOW WHAT?
Yeah Patrick isn’t big big on folding. I saw him play PLO and he was like a calling station even in three way pots with over calls. Good play but against the wrong customer. Patrick could have also put him on a missed flush right ?
I could potentially see Dwan or Ivey folding here. Neither of them are nits like Hellmuth, but both have demonstrated they're capable of making big laydowns when they have to. Antonius on the other hand is just a massive calling station, so I definitely agree this was the wrong opponent to try this against.
One of the gutsiest bluffs in televised poker... great for the fans. Interesting to hear you put him on the straight on the river. With my limited poker brain, (even with you holding 74) I might have skewed Patrick more to boats seeing as he overbet river, but thats just something you see a lot in midstakes poker tourneys. Loving this series, GG
Patrik is just so scary. My favorite player.
Marvin Nash Patrik is a station
Lolled
@@cyberrider1765 take money if he saatiin idiot
Beautiful example of relative hand strength. When a player has a straight they're usually at the top of their value range but Patrik is actually at the bottom here. And he flopped the nuts!!
Great video Doug. My game has improved massively thanks to your videos and I recently won my first tournament thanks to your preflop guide and these types of videos. Best finish I had before winning that tournament 3 months ago was 5th. Awesome video.
This bluff hand makes total sense in this spot and I think Antonius called more because he didn't know much about you and your game. Considering this info that he had few information on your thinking pattern, the only think I'm not a big fan about is the size of the river raise. 210k-250k looks more like you would want to extract the value from your opponent's straight with your boat. Also....5k in 18k on the turn looks weird and often weak-ish in a live full ring cash game from the "new face" player at the table, from an "oldtimer's" perspective. Saying that, thank you for all the honest and quality content you put online, Doug! Inspirational, fun, and valuable for everyone wanting to take poker seriously and study the game.
Perfect play and analysis! Not many have the balls to bluff Patrick here and it was the brilliant because you had the blockers to the boats. Well played Doug. You just gained one more fan. TeamDoug
This analysis doesn't really make sense though. Patrik is supposed to fold a straight because Doug can have lots of full houses. But that assumes that Patrik somehow knows that Doug is limping 44/55/77/QQ in the small blind. How would he know that? He would more naturally assume - incorrectly - that Doug would raise those hands pre-flop and therefore Patrik will be greatly discounting the chance that Doug has a full house.
I think this is my favorite Doug Polk video. Great mix of analysis, personal insights, and poker philosophy.
dont bother doing this at a 1/2 or 2/5 table lol
haha seriously
they will call you the fuck down with a flopped straight everytime
flopped straight or middle pair
You wouldn't be bluffing there you would be value betting because they're gonna call with Jack high.
Yea because it worked so well here ^^ :-)
It's not about whether you get called down with a str8. It's about removal of big hands. Antonius also has over pairs and counterfeited his 2 pair. He didnt think he is always folding str8s.
The only thing worse for Doug than Ben86 is Patrick's86...
oh god this comment is good that I almost jizzed my pants while simultaneously giggling to it
Lmao I'm slow in the head. Didn't realize why it was funny for a full 5 Mississippi then I face palmed in Real life. GEE GEE Muah friend GG. The double Pun ftw
Great to hear your thought process throughout the hand, thanks for the video!
Doug, please never stop doing these. Thank you.
a fan from Hungary.
Man you must be pretty rich to bluff away 300 k
Fascinating insight into this high level play. Great content as always Doug.
Beautiful hand. This really exemplifies modern range based poker thought and it's especially great because it contradicts so much old school strategy, like "don't limp pre", "what's with the weird 1/3 lead" "why are you trying to bluff him off a straight" etc.
It's like science vs religion in a sense. The difficult and right way to think vs the easy and wrong way.
are you serious? Is his way gospel? Are you playing micros? He doesn't have to bluff here ever if PA is never folding. The correct play is to fold and that would exploit PA.
I remember watching this hand and thinking how clueless the commentators were. Great analysis, really like this video series!
Gah such high level thinking.. I love the analysis of the 7-4 blockers. Amazing!
Solid analysis Doug! I'm a 500z grinder and was remember wondering whether you were actually balanced while I saw this hand. Are you 100% you would play your boats this way? If so, respect! I believe Antonius maybe did not think so, which made him call in the end. Considerations about perceived ranges are sometimes confusing to me in terms of exploitative adjustments. Either way, do you think his call was good? I believe you are extremely polarized that it is a tough spot regarding min def frequency and am wondering whether he should be calling with 5x instead (he then probably only has 75 and 54, maybe 65). If he knows you are always bluff jamming 74 then he has even less combos that he can be calling with here. I believe 86 is still borderline.
Also, are you bluffing 5x otr?
i believe river sizing should be jam too btw!
You have to call 5x, or your call range becomes too narrow. Also having a 5 removes a bunch of value combos from his range.
He asked if antonio should be calling 5x vs your river raise. not if you would call 5x vs his river bet
+The art of competition u miss read
Hey Doug, you say you would make this raise for value with any full house you have here (or quads). So that would be a total of 28 combos for value (3 of 44, 6 of 54, 6 of 57, 6 of 5Q, 3 of 77, 3 of QQ, 1 of 55). Let me know if this assumption is wrong since 44 and 54 might be a little too thin, especially if you expect a fold from a straight.
If so, then on the river you're giving Patrik odds to call of 212/(212 + 456) = 31.7%, so ideally you'd want to bluff with 13 combos here since 13/(13 + 28) is also 31.7%. We have 9 combos of 74, but what are the other 4 combos we'd want to bluff with?
it would most likely be a hand like 64 is my best guess as he said he is capable of doing it with a 4.
You do not want to have clubs when you bluff that river, you want your opponent to have clubs since flush bricked.
It comes down to GTO, Doug needs to bluff here a good percentage of the time so that when he does have a full house he is more likely to get paid off when he does have the boat, and his opponent has the straight, and Antonius needs to call here a reasonable amount of time or he'll get bluffed too often.
I agree with everything you said and did this hand my opinion as to why it didn't work out for you is that Patrick's read on you and his instincts on that hand caused him to call. Loved the video more please!
Patrik contemplating a call after his opponent bluffs on the river..
commentator: "i'm *almost* certain patrik has the best hand here"
Next level shit. You have made me think about poker in a completely different way and I've been playing over 10 years. I've never seen Patrik screw his face up and be put in such a spot before. Thanks Doug, you are a poker genius.
Without behing result oriented, do you think antonius call is good ? He is not getting a good price and i think he loses a LOT of the time
Clearly Antonius folds in that spot most of the time.
Say over the year bad call. You can tell he knows that and Doug said it was edited a lot.
No one mentions the busted flush draw on board. An extra reason Patrik could have thought Doug might be bluffing and called him down.
NicholasMollison busted flush draws are bad to raise river with
If he only calls full houses Antonius is folding way too often, and would be exploitable. If Antonius bets 5x on the flop, then due to him blocking full houses that'd be an ideal river call, allowing him to fold straights on the river. However if Antonius checks 5x on the flop, and mostly has straights for value, he has to call with some percentage of them. Perhaps calling 68 and folding 63 could be a way to balance this, or only calling 68/63 without a club. Overall, calling 68 without a club is likely to be a balanced play from Antonius if he's not betting 5x on the flop, and folding would be too exploitable, despite Polk's clear range advantage.
i agree with all your reasons. However, you mentioned that Antonius was tilted because of losing a huge side bet. Don't you think that bluff against a tilted player is a lot less likely to end well?
Yes that was what Doug was hinting at by making the reference to it earlier. However he makes the point that the tilt was only speculation and it didn’t form part of his hand analysis when he was playing. He was leaving us to comment about!
Great analysis . When I saw that hand I wasn't really sure what is purpose to call Patrick"s raise at the turn. Now it completely make sense. You know his hand range is cap. He is very unlikely has full house in his range. 5 is obviously good for your range than his. Cuz He is most likely gonna check for 5 as pot control unless he is got 56 combo.! Your full house range is much bigger than his.the key of this play you got blocker hand 74 plus he never has 77. Great play and great analysis. Thanks Doug Polk. Becoming big fan of you. Sorry my language.
Wow. Amazing analysis. I only got to scratch the surface of advanced play by watching your videos. Thank you Doug!
One question: how can you do this analysis during the hand? How much time do you take with each decision? I mean it looks like you wrote this down just for the video. I don't see how could you do this quickly when the hand is going on.
-EV call on the river from Patrick, great video and analysis Doug
The analysis in the comment section is actually much better than I expected. Good channel. From plays like this, I can see how Doug manages to be a problem for otherwise very successful players.
Doug, you got a lot of respect of Ivey after this hand. Very well played hand and I remember watching this hand and doing my own theory. Perfect logic.
Wow, this is some high level stuff. One of the best poker videos I've ever seen.
That look from Ivey... immediately replaying the hand in his head with hole cards and realizing what a great play that was.
Patrick with a little bit of a slow roll flipping those cards over at the end lol.. Looked like he was mad at the bluff.
You mention checking all flops with your range. How would you have played your massive range (great odds) preflop, if Patrick raises in the bb?
thoughts on patrick's call? what would you do here in patrick's shoes vs another balanced online player, say 2014 ike who was in this game as well, for example?
great review nice work Doug enjoying working my way though all of these.
When you construct a small blind range in the way you did, how do you decide what is appropriate? In other words, in your case, the cost of opening many hands means that you need to limp your good hands too, in order to protect the weaker hands. The cost of this is that you can't aggressively raise and play your stronger hands (at least before the turn). That means you'll get less value overall from your stronger hands.
An alternative approach could be to limp most of your hands, but (let's say) raise only your most premium hands (let's say 5% of your range).
I'm not saying the alternative is better - I'm asking, how do you know which approach is best? How do you go about making a decision like that?
HI Doug apologies if i missed your explanations in the vid but i believe you skipped on a couple vital things:
- turn lead sizing. what was the purpose of betting 1/4 pot? was it to induce a raise? are you credibly ever leading that small of a sizing on the turn with a boat? does Antonious also give you credit on the river for a boat given the peculiar turn play
- River bet by Antonious. what was your read on the sizing by him on the river? merge with overpair?
Thanks
how do you play this hand if youre in patricks spot? i feel like he played it pretty standard up until the river. Do you like his overbet and once you overbet c/r do you call in patricks spot if you know youre playing against a player like yourself who will have bluffs here.
Good breakdown on the hand Mr.Polk. But considering it was live, how does it matter if you merge your ranges when you bet on the turn with that smallish bet? I mean online the merging idea has a lot of value, but you have to assume that Antonious is aware of this merge strategy in order for all your weaker hands to be protected.
Would your strategy have varied if PA bets say 28k or so instead of the 90k he bets? Do you consider check raise all-in as a stronger move that better indicates more strenth?
My questions are about the river check raise. What did you do to determine the size of the check raise? He bet 90k, and you raise a little more then 3x his raise leaving only 139k behind. If you could go back, would you change your raise sizing? Do you think check-raising all in might've been a better/worse play?
Thanks for the insight into your play. Enjoy following you on Twich/UA-cam.
Hi Doug! Great video and thanks for the analysis! When you bet 302k to win 154k as a bluff, you need to get a fold > 2/3 of the time. with him having 32 possible straights (36 and 68) and 5 full-house combos (discounting 77/QQ as he would raise that pre), and no bluffs (since he re-raised on the turn), this means he would have to fold 80% of his straights here. Would you have folded most of your straights here if you were in his shoes? From his view point, your range can include any sort of combo draws which would go for a bluff so he wouldn't fold 100% of the straights, right?
Love these videos mate the hand makes so much sense after your explanation. remember watching this a while back. sick bluff. Almost a BAZAAAM momeny
What a ballsy move. I think your play was creative enough that it of work. That raise on the river really looks a full house based on Antonious already raising the turn. With you having blockers to the nuts, it's convincing enough that you have it.
Skeptics: "Blockers don't matter much in general"
Doug @ 2014 Aussie Millions cash game: "Hold my beer..."
Doug @ 2018: "?" (aka what would you do differently today Doug? Obviously preflop and OTF less rigid/passive, but especially OTT/OTR?)
Doug, would you also have an other strategy on the turn nowadays? That's the only problem I have with this hand. I think you should split your range on the turn because a most of your hands don't want to take that line. Furthermore I still don't get the betsize. With valuehands you give him direct odds to hit and with bluffs you almost don't have any fold equity.
Thanks, enjoyed it :)
When he leads out with a weak / block bet on the board-pairing turn and flats the raise, Antonius knows most of what he needs to know, namely that his straight is still good. With a very blank queen on the river, it should be an insta-muck from Doug.
If everyone who's a winning player at 25c/50c knows that all Doug can be selling it 55 or QQ, and that Patrick is paying for those all day long, you have to wonder if there's any level at all at which Doug has a long-term positive expectation.
Why would you sit a game like this? Is Paul Newey that fishy that he can support a table of 6-7 wizards?
lol'd
im 95% sure Doug would say he's the best player at the table.
would you disagree? just out of curiosity
+Jesus Fourtwenty give us the names!
make that 100%
Hey Doug, how do you know Patrick is not using same strategy as you when it comes to sb bb strategy to not to raise with good hands?
Doug, the big question in this hand is, if you 3bet some or many of your full houses on the Turn. In Patrik's shoes I am inclined to think so, at least some percentage of the time. Still a decent bluff and good explanation!
lol im quite sure that 3betting boats would be pretty hilariously bad in that spot oop against someone decent. like what other stuff do you lead/3bet there, only value you want to get it in? D:
Great video Doug! Really enjoyed the analysis! Keep it up!
having a 7 and a 4 blocks a lot of boats and its a very gutsy bluff but you mentioned on the turn analysis that your lead is repping a 5. Doesn't that reduce the number of hands you have that can be boats? basically only q5 or a variety of turned boats. Also isnt a turned boat likely to check and keep playing in flow ? Wondering if the turn action is what ultimately makes antonius call. What is ur take on maybe not having lead turn making the river bluff more likely to go through? or do you think its not necessarily a big factor?
tklink81 he is not representing a 5 while beting OTT, he is just making an statement that this 5 its better for his range of hands, than its for Patrics. He is donking this turn whit every bluff and value hand he has OTT. Its just a way of protect all his hands in this spot and being balanced, so you can see a 5X, QQ, JJ, 74, 75, straights, flush draws, etc, etc. Its an intricate balanced bet.
ok so basically the lead on the turn is saying that regardless of whether i am bluffing or not this 5 is better for my range of hands and its not a good card for you.
I hear doug mention "protect his range" in a lot of his analysis. is this an example of it? i thought it was a way of keeping value and bluff ranges wide and not announcing the strength of one s hand.
tklink81 its still a protection if that 5 didnt came in that situation, Doug certanly would had x/c or x/r depending of his strategy and the turn card. He is taking the line that makes more sense 4 his range of hands, depending of how the board develops. And of course it doesnt have to do anything whit the strength of his hand at the time, but of his entire range and how the cards had an impact in it. Therefor, Patric or any pro on that table (great pros) cant make explotations and have to play whit caution and balance their games too if they dont wanna be autoexploited.
One of the great televised poker hands post BF. Love it.
Doug Polk, what is the name of the sunglasses you're wearing in de one for one drop 1mil buy-in?
doug, it's probably very unbalanced but I don't know if we need to be balanced if Antonius calls straights on the river with this action. is there any merit to clicking back his turnbet and betting big on the river?
Two VERY clear reasons why your bluff was called.
1. You may know that your strategy was to take check call lines, but Patrik wouldn't have known that. In a limped pot, flopped sets don't want to give other limped hands a shot at catching up for cheap on such low connected drawy flops. Leading out or check raising are generally the best way to accomplish this. You did neither. This narrows your boat range hands to 45, 57 and Q5. Another thing to mention is that a check raise would easily represent a semibluff with clubs, and pros will tend to use this flop texture opportunistically to build the pot without necessarily giving away the strength of their hands.
2. Your lead on the turn was tiny. If a player has a boat on the turn, he definitely wants to bet bigger (or check raise) in case an action killing card like a 6 of clubs or really any club or 3 comes on the river. Also, players tend to lead small when they want to name their own price to see the river, and even though you called the check raise, that probably stuck in his mind as an "information" bet.
16:14 If this was me bluffing I would be dying on the inside. Omg look at the icemans stare 😱😱😱
Yeah me too lol
What cashgame is this from, and where can I watch it?
Thanks Doug, finally understand your flop and turn play. Probably a bad call from Antonius on the river
not really, he has to call with his straights some of the time
lol it is actually quite more complex than what it appears your took on the river decisions are.(re: it is either bad bluff or bluff call).
It actually can be, and obs is a take it spot for Doug there, as he has to have bluffs some of the time, granted the fashion he arrives to that xR otr is aligned with his strategy and even though Antonius flopped straight the fact is that on the river after the xraise he beats only bluffs really. Since Doug should generally have more value combos than bluffs in such spot he is actually, fairly generally speaking losing (antonius is) than winning after the call he makes. THat does not mean however, that if he calls and is wrong his call was bad, and the same goes for Doug, he expects to get called some of the time, and he will, and his bluff will be showed but does not mean that it was a bad bluff really. Important point is what the reasoning was behind their actions and from this video is quite apparent that Doug does not like randomly clicks and spazzes his money around. Both of them, even though may be doing matematically and GTO sound decisions at the same time, are expecting to a)their bluff being called some of the time and b) their hero call being bad and loosing and c) hypothetically when PA folds he will get bluffed some of the time that's the way it is. And all of this is quite correct.
Really fun watch! Thanks for sharing!
Doug, this analysis was fantastic and this is my favourite hand video so far! There are a few things that confuse me, though. You said you limp every hand that you want to play from the SB but still limp 74o which to me makes it seem like you're just about ready to play 100% of hands. Then if every hand becomes a check, you usually have about 50-55% of hands that would likely want to continue (50 when you limp
Albeit a not very complex tidbit, I wish you never mentioned the '2 pair-paired boards-counterfeit to bluff' note. Such a large amount of players just give up in those spots. NOW THEY'RE GOING TO START BLUFFING ME, THANKS DOUG.
Ps. Really enjoy your channel. Thank you for putting in the time to do it well.
these analysis vids are awesome! please keep making them
Hey doug thanks for doing this video! love these poker hands glad you listened to my suggestion I understoon why u check raised with blockers but loved the in dept analysis
Hi Doug. I don't play a lot this year, but the passed 6 years I have. My observation on the turn is that you bet the 5 pretty fast. In my experience, fast bets after a card has been revealed tends to lead to a lot of tells. Experienced players do take a bit of time before making a decision. Can you tell me if that is a relevant tell for you? It seems that you reacted quite quickly and didn't make a big decisions. Were you committed to the play on the flop?
hi. why not to re-raise all in on the river instead of check raise?
just for curious, have you talked this hand with Patrik? would like to know, what size of a re-raise he would have folded? anyway, really nice hand (Y)
Potentially dumb question, but do you think it would have been better if you jammed the river instead of just raising?
Nice video Doug. It all makes sense. However, isnt also important how other players at the table see or know your strategy? Like the thing with that sb limping range, checking whole range OTF etc. If Patrick doesnt know this he is more likely to give u different ranges so your plan is less likely to work, or am I wrong? BTW: How come it didnt worked? Did he called cause he was tilted? Did he make a mistake? Or is there a chance he sensed something sitting next to you which helped him to make a decision? Did he call cause he was probably tilted a bit? Or is there a possibility he actually plays at higher level than u?
Hey man,
Absolutely LOVING your videos. I've known how to play for years, but I've never tried to learn the strategies and such to play WELL.
This is only my 2nd day of learning, and watching your videos, so a ton of what you say goes right over my head. But with each video I'm picking up on more and more, and I just can't get enough! So thank you for all these videos!
I just have one simple question for this one...What is the reason that the broadcast doesn't show Antonius' cards until showdown, the way most televised poker tournaments do?
Thanks again, man! Keep up the great work!
I really like the play as soon as the flop is dealt.
Preflop, I have a 180 degree different stragety that works really well for me, where I am just very aggressive in stealing, restealing, squeezing etc., so I could rep all these hands if I would ever limp in on the SB.
But Doug is correct that this is a play you absolutely need to be able to execute in order to balance your range, especially on the river.
I only think that a shove (441k instead of 302k) would have been better, since you have so many value hands in that spot that you probably would have check-shoved a boat in this situation, therefore, you should shove your bluffs, too.
Hi, im a low/mid zoom grinder. Currently I mainly just have a 2x SB strategy, but up to what levels do you think limping SB is still applicable in online games? Esp if BBs arent generally strong players and you can just autoprofit with min steals up to around 50z?
That was played very well I think after your explanation of why you did what. Makes a lot of sense. Thanks.
Hi Doug, great video. I was just wondering how you would play this hand today? I noticed you said you have changed your strategy since then. Thank you!
Really cool to hear exactly what you're thinking at each point. But how do you think Antonius found the call?
I remember at the end of the video, Antonius said something like "I was going to fold but my head keeps spinning with you bet size so I just have to call"
And he's correct. The turn bet by Polk (leading out for ~25% pot) was extremely weak.
Fanatic and enjoyable breakdown of range. I would wonder if Patrick would be calling if the bet wasn't a value bet on the turn?!
I remember this hand very well. This was the hand that made me want to see move videos of hands you're involved in. It takes massive ba..courage to raise on the river facing a large bet. After listening to your analysis, I think it is very well justified. Also Patrick's looks show you how effective of a play it is. He made a reluctant call. The one where everyone says in their head "how can I be this unlucky.. f it call"
anyway on a side note, I'm a complete poker scrub compared to you. I play 1-2 cash live. I like live better than online although I know it's much easier to bank roll manage online (still a college student). I'm taking a break to build up a bankroll sufficient for live 1-2. How many buyins or total amount would you recommend. I'm a pretty aggressive and creative type of player.
Is it jus tme or is all of Doug's videos pretty quiet? It's not a problem really because I can just up the volume but compared to other videos I watch these are quiet.
Can't believe I'm just now findings these videos
Hi Doug...
I was hoping you would tell us what would you do if you were playin with antonius hand (86)...
In that same position if the action on the flop and turn would be exactly the same, would you call that raise on the river against patrik, ivey or dwan?
Thanks for the analysis btw :-)
Thank you, Doug, spent some time watching video on your site, found your advice very informative
Best poker videos on youtube! You are the best Doug!
Two questions for Professor Polk:
1.) Would you have been less likely to run that 300k bluff if you weren't up over 200k in the session? (That 200k cushion has to make it an easier bluff. No?)
2.) Was any part of your decision based on your opponent? Antonius is not known for being a nit and has a history on TV of calling down huge bluffs with marginal hands.
Did u considered that str8 is the top of Patrick range in this situation and he shouldn't be folding it that often, when u make the play? Or u just consider the option that ur range was so much stronger? Btw, did he said if u give some kind of tell who helped him make the decision?
Thanks for this Doug, informative as always!
Great analysis and concept Doug.
From Patrik's perspective, what do you think is the top of his folding range/bottom of his calling range here? Do you think he folds 5X? Do you think he's over betting his entire range here, or is there any possibility of a sizing tell present?
though to be fair this is the hand where I first watched Polk boss it and make a monster bluff, and just watching Antonius squirm was probably worth it, I cannot recall any spot where he ever squirmed in any televised poker event. It took him a moment to realize 74 didn't have him beat because he was so sure he ran in to a boat. Great stuff!
btw genuine question, I see you lead small on the turn a lot when its a better card for your range than your opponents but why so small? why not do 50-70 percent of the pot?
How big was the sample of hands that were folded to you and you limbed to his bb? He might not even have picked up on you beeing able to have your whole range in that spot.
lol of course, even if you see someone openlimp 10 times in a row it does not necessarily mean he does that with his whole range period
as played with the limp pre and the flop check.. why would betting a 5 be wrong on the flop.. I would totally bet any piece of the board if sb limps and checks to me. really interested to know why that's bad.
Awesome vid Doug. Really appreciate what you do. I have a RIO-sub and let's just say I'm less than amused by the level of humour of guys like Tyler Forrester and Ben "Grandmaster of Nerds" Sulsky so watching your vids is quite relieving :)
wow great analyses, reminded me of your scoop win where you overbet with trips and he shoved over it on the river with a canadian full house. Could you give insight of the reversed thought rpocess on that hand? Keep up the good work doug