Short Report Sends Globe Life Stock Down -50%: Is It A Buy?
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- Опубліковано 2 жов 2024
- In this video I review Globe Life stock in light of the recent short report. I share my thoughts on price vs. earnings cyclicality, and capital allocation, along with earnings patterns.
Here is a link to the report: fuzzypandarese...
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#investing #stocks
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Nice thoughts. Thanks for the video!
Just thinking...you are a very quantitative-analysis-oriented guy (correct me if I'm wrong). Doesn't this way of looking at stocks put you in a risk of buying "fair businesses at wonderful prices" rather than "wonderful businesses at fair prices"? It's more of a philosophical question.
The fact that you look at these kind of stocks means that you consider buying them if they fall enough. The other day you were looking at JNJ (which i consider a wonderful business, obviously another class vs GL), but because you do an objective-conservative quantitative analysis you might never get into that one (while it may be a way better business than this).
Don't take it as a critique, but I'm just challenging you to better understand your strategy.
I think it's a fair question. I would say that my most basic measurement of "quality" is the ability to grow long-term earnings at a faster rate than inflation. Globe Life has traditionally done that, so my basic quality threshold is met. After that threshold is met, then I look for the best deals, and risk/reward matters. Just generically speaking, let's say GL is 3x riskier than JNJ. Well, if I buy GL at the right price, I might get a 10x compared to a JNJ 2x over the following decade. In that case, it's probably worth the higher risk (as long as the minimum quality threshold is met).
Because I've examined so many hundreds of stocks, I actually have a pretty good read on just how much higher quality my portfolio typically is compared to most investors, and I have confidence overall, the quality is very high. But I also want to get at least 8% CAGR plus inflation. It's hard to do that paying an average price for JNJ-type stocks. It's rare for the market to give up easy money like that.
@@thecyclicalinvestorsclub6657 i understand. Clear!
look at the stock now lol i only watch videos like your for a good laugh
I'm glad I'm good for a laugh :) I'm not making short-term predictions, though. I'm looking out 2-5 years and just sharing what I think the odds are.
@@thecyclicalinvestorsclub6657 but this is a 2-5 year investment even longer just look at the consistent earnings numbers
@@thecyclicalinvestorsclub6657 this was an obvious rebound, you looked too deep and missed it🤦♂
thank you!
when you have the time, could you do ZTS? seems undervalued!
interesting moat-stock, sold on some bad news/research that one drug for animals could do more harm than good...
I sure can. I recently updated ZTS in my spreadsheet and its valuation is getting interesting.
Thanks for your thoughts. I am a retired actuary and read through the Panda short report => I felt that this was a name to stay away from (note when Muddy Waters had short report on Fairfax earlier this year, I thought it was BS). I found your thought about potential recession declines very interesting. I may incorporate that some into my portfolio management. Sometimes makes sense to wait for that fat pitch.
Thanks for the feedback. Glad you found the thought process useful. Since I come from a social science background rather than accounting or finance, and I like to be able to do 80% of my stock assessment quickly, I have to get more creative in the ways I think about and interpret data. This can sometimes produce unique insights and perspectives.
lol its up from my average of 55 lol
Best of luck with the position.
@@thecyclicalinvestorsclub6657 yep easiest money in a while , don't see why it should trade so low when the long term trend is up
It will probably take some time to see how it plays out.
@@thecyclicalinvestorsclub6657 definitely, if the news is fake then it will recover nicely
Could you do NKE ? It's down almost 50% from ATH.
Sure. I have this one from back in October. I think it's still a 'sell' based on valuation. ua-cam.com/video/KWMwEGUb35g/v-deo.html
Global pandemic = "no particular reason for a break in trend"
I'm open to listening to the case that the recent earnings growth was due to some sort of post-pandemic behavior, but this isn't the type of situation where I would start with that assumption.
@@thecyclicalinvestorsclub6657 Before the pandemic the company was primarily focused on live in home visits. During the pandemic they had to pivot to a virtual environment. This was a massive boost to recruiting, agent retention and policies sold. That is why.
@@thecyclicalinvestorsclub6657 made 5k in 3 days cause i didnt listen to you and more money left on the trade lol
@@thecyclicalinvestorsclub6657 late reply. I bought at $50 and sold today at $75.
Thank you Corey!
My pleasure!