A big study in The Lancet challenges widely-held Indian fears of ruinous ‘population explosion’
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- Опубліковано 21 жов 2024
- #IndianPopulationGrowth #DemographicDividend
*Correction: TFR is not a percentage but rather the number of children who would be born per woman.
Population explosion fears have dominated our national debate for years. A big new study in The Lancet, however, throws up counter-intuitive findings on this. In episode #534 of Cut The Clutter, Shekhar Gupta unpacks the study on India & its neighbours’ population projections, and implications.
Read Lancet's study here: www.thelancet....
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Automation requires at a minimal Linear Increasing or Constant Consumer Demand, without which Automation serves only economic decline.
What about the Cumulative Effect of Automation, Which could cause reasonable Unemployment, thereby decline in Economy caused by decline in Consumption Demand.
An Illustrative example.
The individual Effect of Automation might bring about operations efficiency but Operations Efficiency can be brought about in any sector, if there is linearity or Stability of Consumer Demand.
Let us say for example, there is an annual demand of 100 B+ Segment Cars in the 7 to 10 Lakh INR price category. With 20 Salaried Employees like Insurance Agents, Product Marketing Managers, Logistics & Warehouse Managers, So the demand for 60 Cars from these type of Individuals. Now as result of Artificial Intelligence, the AI Bots can suggest optimal insurance plans to Customers on a Insurance Company Portal and hence 10 Insurance Agents Loose their Jobs. Similarly AI Bots can suggest optimal Sales Incentive / Trade Promotion Plans, the right Customer Segments to Target and about 10 Product Marketing Managers loose their Jobs. Similarly because of IOT about 10 Warehouse Managers loose their Jobs. Now, as a result 30 Salaried Employees losing their Jobs,
The annual demand for 100 Cars could drop to 70 Cars and the Government could loose CGST + CGST based Tax Revenues, also declined Corporate Direct and also Indirect Taxes.
I'm the only son of my parents, my grandpa has 2 kids.. this is the service my family did to my country.. Thank You
Proud of your family...True patriots!
This should be ideal in every family of India......
It shouldn't be a surprise if you guys hail from Southern India!
Respect
That’s great but lonely child is not good for future ..I had one Chinese friend n now their generation suffering fm depression becos their one child policy ..this one child policy has lead to other social problems
My great-Grand dad had 10 kids, My grand-dad had 6 kids and now my father has two kids and I decided to have one kid of my own and another kid through adoption.
Same here man...Now Adoption is the best way to have kids...Great choice
Good Decision Man.
Feminists have turned Marriage into a Ricky proposition with 50:50 Asset Split, Life Time Alimony, Child Support in a Divorce.
Same here from my moms side
@Raghav Namsivyam Unless you care enough for the planet and the future generations, of course it is no problem to have children
@@ashokseshadri8331 🙄 So you think you're a contributor and a Saviour by not having Kids 😁.
Having 2 Children all over the country will not have much of a Difference anyway 👍🏼. TFR at 2 is not at all a Big issue 🙄.
But having No children will end up many Lonely at the Older age group where India's average age population will get old at 2100 🙄.
Lonely then Depression then psychosis 🙄. You don't understand the support that a family gives 🙄. Don't be shallow being over emotional 🙄.
Anyone who is watching this video in 2100..
Hey Guys, we are all dead.
.
Plz don't laugh at our stupidity.
Won't matter coz they will all, always wear a mask .
MDH masalas owner has left the chat
Hello I'm Noah i have already seen this comment in 2100
Great to meet someone who believes humanity will exist in 2100
😊.... just so I too feature in this going to be viral comment of 2100
Mr Shekhar Gupta, I have noticed this many times.. you say” you will say the list/ numbers on screen “ but it never comes up. Did u know?
Hahah I think it's a joke his team plays on him, don't expose the prank yet
Hi Vinod. We did display stats earlier in the video. Do keep suggestions pouring in.
At age 108 I will come and re check this study.
Naresh Reddy at 28 I🤞 that I live a happy life.I do have hope to live for above 100 years. My grandma lived up to 99 years.
In 2100 that might actually be the life expectancy, you never know
@@AakashJdp123 for every 200 crore people only 1 will live more than 100 , dude. I hope you live upto that.
1992 born people!!
Abhinay Garg I still feel like 18 because I am in a college doing research.
I am a 29 year old unmarried Hindu. At my same age my Muslim friend has 3 children.
My intention is not to make this communal, but to call out the need to spread awareness in an inclusive and logical way.
@@jayasankarshivakumar471 no idea experts don't wanna put the actual figure because of backlash from Hindus
They wanna pretend the rate of decline in Muslim population growth rate will continue as it is but that will not happen at some point it will stabilise but where will it is the issue
Will it above be 3 or below 2 or close to 1
Only an expert can answer that but the current scenario looks ugly
@The Truth he is a leftist who pretends to be neutral to attract viewers. Since, the left in India has appeased the Muslim community therefore, anything the Muslims have problem with the left will have problem with it too. We know that Muslims have problem with any measures taken to prevent having children... they say that it is against their religion. Hence, to create an opinion against any population control law being implemented by the current government in the near future he made this video about population not being a problem for India coming with some absurd shitty theory by some obscure organisation.
Brother i'm muslim am 34 not married yet..my friend Joshi who is of same age from Rajasthan settled in hyderabad,has 3 kids(2 daughters 1 son).i didn't tell you about his 2 other brothers and their kids.
Blaming is easy bro..
as a people of nation we are into this together.if we need to get out..we need to work together.
@@manwar4230 Government should implement a population control law limiting number of children a person can have to 2. No person regardless of his religion, caste or race should be allowed to have more than 2 children (with a few exceptions to micro minorities like Parsis and Jews and tribal minorities in North Eastern states).
@@khushgada9802 Don't try to be intellectual, One Country One Law. Neither it will create problems in long run like RESERVATION in West Bengal now. Intercaste marriage is a common thing in WB. No report of caste discrimination in decades but now 'Matua Mahasangha' is gaining popularity. Now they vote name of caste in the district of North 24 Parganas, Nadia, etc.
If 138 Cr people can pollute rivers this much , imagine what 160 Cr can do😅
Once all natural resources are polluted by 160 cr population, there will be a huge catastrophe n population will start reducing.
Yep, just imagine some peace religion with 4-wives each and 10-children; the populatin may reach 200 Crores.
@@nirmal6362 beta bachpan se chutiya ho ki koi course Kia hai
This started happening at 900 million. We need a law to control population.
Dharm k naaam par gandgi felate h nadiyo me
'Do bachhe hai meethi kheer, usse jyada bawaseer'.
1 bhi shi hai
Ja ke up , bihar main logo ko samjhao har ghar mai 4-5 karke baache palte hai sab
Chintoo to bawasir. Chintoo to bawasir
@R Chaudhari 2005 ki information hai woh.
Nice kheer bawaseer nice vrry nice impressed but kheer to meethi hi hoti hai
The main problem lies with up Bihar and mp ...their tfr is above 3
Target which communities are involved in high TFR. and target them
@The Truth why don't you put the data of Muslims TFR in Kerala and Hindu TFR in Bihar. Don't do identity politics, put the facts.
Go and get schooled baby... MP's tfr is 2.4... UP is the big problem...
@The Truth ok then compare bihar's hindu and kerla's Muslims growth rate. You will get what you want...
@@kokuyocamlin07 he is talking demographic changes which is done state wise
Demographic change is disastrous for social harmony
Just see kashmir, mewat or mallapurm or North east
Or what happend in bengal in 1946
Dear SG sir TFR is not expressed in percentages format...a little correction.
Yes TFR is a number not a percentage. Also India's TFR is 2.2 in 2015-2016 as per the most recent NFHS study - tell your researchers to check their basic facts. rchiips.org/NFHS/NFHS-4Reports/India.pdf this says 2.18. It is probably even even lower now in 2020.
Also because of India's poor sex ratio of 924/1000 - we actually need a higher TFR for replacement. With our sex ratio, replacement fertility rate is actually 2.1/0.924 = 2.27 rather than 2.1 for countries with balanced populations. We are ALREADY below replacement fertility - just need to bring UP and Bihar under control and our population problem is solved.
A Kumar We are likely to have other problems though, because of an ageing population, right? That combined with the skewed sex ratio...
@@yvnkishore
Ageing population will not be a big problem for next 30 years at least - because of something called 'population momentum' - even with below replacement TFR our population will grow and working age population ratio will keep improving until around 2040s - this is what is called the 'demographic dividend' period. 'Demographic peak' or 'demographic dividend' is when the ratio of working age population to overall population is maximum - this is when a country's GDP growth skyrockets.
Skewed sex ratio is a BIG problem - men who are never married can lead to social problems and criminality - I don't know the solution because nobody has faced this issue at this scale before - maybe promotion of prostitution, easier immigration of women from abroad to India, more embrace of bisexuality or non traditional polyandry? China has started essentially started importing women from poorer countries like Pakistan.
I think he meant person instead of percent, I was confused too
Hi. Thanks for writing in.
TFR is not a percentage but rather the number of children who would be born per woman.
The correction has been added in description.
Why is no one talking about the childfree people in this country ?
Good question 😎.. Boss I think for now these single people are just under represented, they are not contributing to the countries schools or Baby food etc.. so no use. But surely one day the country will see the benefits provided by singles in the long run.. when more people find single life to be more cheap & efficient way of life.
@@varunemani it's not true. If you don't have kids you don't buy diapers, baby formula, you don't pay school fees etc. But in return you have disposable income and you spend it on other things so in turn single people end up spending more and that supports the capitalist society that we live in.
They are providing succour to overpopulated country like india
Double Income No Kids should be promoted.
Demographic change is also one of the biggest challenge, Muzaffarnagar and kishanganj in Bihar
bengal and assam are heading towards a civil war.
@@FFSVI Malappuram karana alle
Hope the WFH option doesn't increase the curve in December.
It's already does.
😂😂
Haha... 😂😂
It's not happening. People wont want children in such uncertain times
Whether you do it during daytime or at night, 1 time per day or 6 makes no difference, it is the use of contraceptives and planning that decides fertility.
it made me feel sad when i thought by 2100 , nobody seeing the video will be alive , and more sad by 2050 shekhar ji will also not be alive, we all short lives
Lancent: Population will be 109cr by 2100
UP and bihar:hold my babies and TFR and cry for population control bill
For that the so called hindi heartland should stop lecturing whole india on moral and use condoms
@हिन्दूस्तान India didn't understand the point you are trying to make!! But i will encourage you to see west bengal fertility rate too it is about 1.6 as a whole in Kolkata I think it is less than 1.1 ... Education is a big factor of course but not the only one... Hindi heartland was lecturing us on eating meat on pujas and they are producing baby like factory worker produce car!
@हिन्दूस्तान India why you people drag Kerala in to this. It's a calm and peaceful state, where Hindus Muslims & Christians live peacefully. It's very difficult to identify the Religion of any one at Kerala by looking at their clothes and food. Please let the Keralites live peacefully.
@@sonydavy Yeah why do right wingers keep mentioning Kerela, it has a population less than that of Delhi NCR. Demographic changes in Kerela wouldn't have much effect on the country as a whole.
Lol even Bihar’s tfr has fallen to 3 in NHFS 5 from 3.4 in NHFS 4. Up’s tfr in NHFS 4 was 2.7. NHFS 5 data for UP will be out in may 2021
This means none of us will be around to see "acche din" 😂😂
Acche din will come in the third term. Phir ek aur baar, Modi Sarkaar!
Population is a gift or a curse provided how it is being lead.
@@satishboda Politicians don't have that much contribution in policy making. There are separate advisory panels in different ministries. And also there are IAS officers. It's not like to be good a leader you have to be highly educated. The good politicians are those who do possess honesty and have good intentions to serve their country. They should be connected to common people. They must know what problems citizens are facing and how to mange a large diverse population. The people nowadays always mock them for their educational qualifications. These are nothing but manifestations of their own vainglory. We are lucky and privileged to get everything in our hand because our parents are capable to provide us. Think of them of the past times. Their parents weren't able to serve minimum requirements for daily life, let alone proper education. And if you talk about educated politicians, many of them just have their big degrees in the paper, they don't have any kind of values. Just come to West Bengal. Our cm Mamata Banerjee everyday in her press conference without hesitation lies to people day in day out. If she tells 10 things, atleast 7 out of them consummate lies and it can be perceived even by a child. This type of education literally has no value.
@@satishboda Yeah. But you are citing an exceptional case. Everyone knows the decision of demonetisation was taken without the consent of the economic advisory panel. Do you think the politicians were unaware of the fact that the demonetisation would have an adverse effect on the economic growth? They were certainly informed about that. Still they were very desperate. But I acknowledge that this is one of the strong reasons behind the economic recession after 2017. Actually in that point of time economy was inundated with corruption, terrorist funding, fake currency and there was huge lack of transparency. That's why they were forced to undergo demonetisation. Still I will say this decision wasn't prudent enough, but their intentions were not not bad. Had the previous UPA government taken any measure to curb the corruption? They were too afraid to undertake any step. Once you don't go for any bold decision, progress will not going to happen. The recession wasn't sustainable. If there wouldn't any pandemic, you can check out prediction of IMF about out economic growth in 2021. It was fascinating. This is the whole story. And don't forget our previous highly educated finance minister P.Chidambaram was behind the bar for his corruption case. So education has no importance if your sole intentions are otherwise.
@@satishboda You still don't get my point. I'm telling this point because you told about high educational qualifications of the politicians. That 's why I gave this example of educated ministers of previous government .I am trying to emphasize the fact that education has no value if they are only for misuse. Furthermore undermining anyone on the basis of others degrees is not a trait of any educated person. Education teaches a person to give respect to everyone.
while watching the video i was thinking "they are thinking humans will go 80 Years without war"
Yep as I'm alive I'll bring world war 3 as I get my own country.
@@searchfluoridemakesyoustup5883 we might see even worse pandemics and wars than this.
Pandemics seem to affect senior citizens only. And war is very unlikely these days because every country has access to nuclear weapons, as Margaret Thatcher used to say.
@@ashwanikumar-gv6ir Bhai dosto se baat kiya kro. Mann shaant hota hai
@@Bubbles-od2tv I didn't say wars might happen I said I'll start a war full of adventure and deaths.
Concern will be our Population distribution because Our Hindi belt will have 75% population and southern belt including Maharashtra will have just 25% of population
exactly...its 100% true reality that will unfold in front of our eyes in the coming years!
@@vijayrangarajanramakrishna318 Keep an close eye on Delimitation Commission Because after 2026 we are set for big gamble in terms of political power
Thanos was right! But his solution wasn’t!
He was trying to flatten the curve forcefully and in less time, LOL!
No he isn't. Resources and population doesn't work the way it was depicted in comic books. This is a colonial holdout/hangover mindset Bourne out of out dated malthusian population model
Think about this, the world is an ecosystem where only one species I.e. human population is been increased 4times in just 70 years while human species are being on earth since millions of years😕 the land , natural resources, water everything is same.
If Mother Earth is like a human body then human species is like cancer cells which is killing other parts of the ecosystem! Causing the imbalance 😐and if we don’t understand it and act accordingly then nature knows how to heel itself
@@06amey Bro you steal my word! Many many thanks to you for this comment.
I knew this and have been telling this for at least five years now - population explosion is no more an issue for India, it is population aging.
India is a overcrowded country, Having Pollution and Sanitation issues
True,It can be said know that India has successfully controlled its population
Same here but even the smartest of the people around me never bought this idea... Time will prove my point (I hope)...
@@shubhamkumarsingh7674 well, there already are ~1.5 Billion with capital B
@@bhargavdesai7984 rest can now be left to mother nature ,at least for sometime.( until countries began struggling to increase their population
Sir, congratulations !! The camera quality is much much improved.
different states are faring differently . Lets not be complacent and try to flatten the curve sharply
if someone say this then a specific community will be in grave danger,you are banning the fundamental rights to reproduce .
credit:Indian Chameleon Intellectual
@@GhostRealm8 Are you talking about hindians?
Actually all the southern states, West Bengal, Tripura, Sikkim, Himachal, J&K and Ladakh will see population decline very early if migration isn't considered. We need different programmes in different States. All the mentioned states have TFR less than or around 1.8, much lower than 2.1
@@GhostRealm8 Yep, I agree that UP, Bihar, etc should bring their TFR down by improving their social indicators.
@@GhostRealm8 There should be a limit for reproduction equally applicable to all communities.
Beginning of every cut the clutter video....
*Shekhar makes a stuble joke
*3 seconds pass
*shekhar explains the subtle joke
Yes, but it does not take into consideration the quality of life of the living population TODAY due to poor resources/person ratio.
Things which could go wrong:
1. Low fertility of soil due to overuse.
2. Drying up of rivers due to dams, usage of water for irrigation, etc.
3. Pollution (obviously)
4. Poor infrastructure planning (consequently unhealthy future adults due to no space for playing, parks, etc)
5. Water shortage
6. Healthy food shortage
6. Deforestation
7. Mental health issues due to overcrowdedness.
If Indian population survives thru all this, then maybe we match this projection. Otherwise, it will be even less. In any case, we need population contol TODAY!
Rise in crime rate, especially of rape and murder; natural disasters like earthquakes, tsunamis, cyclones, floods, droughts, etc.; social unrest (like the one in Northeastern Delhi); epidemics; road accidents; police brutality; terrorist attacks; etc.
@@imayavarambannedunjezhiyan5222 is that your real name?
I request government to do something to control the population of the country it's irrating now.
Did you even watch the video?😄
alka, if irritated, work towards getting out of the country, that's the only practical solution
The crucial issue is keeping up with providing food for the increasing global population. We can’t simply keep clearing forested areas to feed new people as the environmental impact keeps getting worse every year. This I think will be the biggest challenge with a growing population.
Corruption is biggest problem
The Lancet study is based on assumptions. It is not gospel. Care should be taken to interpret its projections. For India, the challenge is the regional, faith, class based CCFR and TFR rates within. Do comment on those.
It's not an assumption but based on socio- economic indicators and how does it impact demography of a country , definitely many other factors are taken into consideration besides it , read principles of population ,given by malthus in last decade of 18th century , it holds true in almost all countries without any exception.
Sekhar Sir, I can't begin tell you, in midst of all the chaos in indian media space, how much of calming effect you bring in with your episodes.
Hope you stay strong and live long.
The larger problem India is facing today and is costing us heavily is something bigger than Population.Surprisngly ,no one is looking at it from " Land availability" &
" Cost of Operation " .
India's population at this time is increasing by 1.3 cr ( including BPL, Middle class, Rich Effluent ) .
Whereas , the number of Vehicles ( from bike ,Car Truck , Tractor, Van , Buses etc ) in India , are increasing by 3 crore every year.
A grown up person needs two vital things to survive : Water and Food
Water : 3 lit / day
Food : 3 meals (each meal including 2 chapaati , rice bowl , daal , vegetable ) costs Rs 100 / day , at home .
Whereas, A running vehicle needs Water( to wash ) and Fuel ( to run ) everyday.
Water wash : Minimum 10lit / wash/ day
Fuel : 30km/ day = 2.5 lit / day = Rs 225/day ( with fuel Rs 75/liter ) .
The total space a car occupies can allow 2 person to sleep
A motorcycle space can allow 1 person to sleep
A Truck and Bus can allow 15 person to sleep.
Therefore, Vehicle population is far more serious danger than Human Population .
Not only ,it has higher cost of running but also needs more water than human and cover more land than humans .
There are many more vehicle demerits ,when it comes to life of vehicle ,it's maintainence and it's environmental impact than human .
Without going into those details, Vehicle population is giving more threat to India than Human population .
Employment is there in India but Population is too much.
Great topic. The Lancet report also calls WHO's numbers alarmist as it has predicted more dire global numbers for 2100.
You cannot get rid of the Lallu Yadav types, with 10+ children. Perhaps a re-look at the Malthusian Theory is called for.
Yeah these people are the reason why I support bjp on population control law.
@@ashwanikumar-gv6ir Such a law will be inimical to people of KL n TN. These two states will see decline in population in 2031 census.
@@haridevthiru they already are even Muslim have fertility rate of 1.5 and 1.7.
@@ashwanikumar-gv6ir These two states are already staring at an aging population. Kerala Christian community is already an aged one.
@@ashwanikumar-gv6ir Population control bill is not going to help now...India's population boom happened in 1990s. Currently, the growth rate is already in a declining trend..and as per lancet..after 2060 it will decline.
Sir, You are not just a journalist, you are a teacher. I always get surprised with lots of insights and factual data. As always, unbiased.
CTC is my favourite daily news show. Congrats for 1 M subscribers!
2 child policy for all religion.
Abdul will issue fatwa
@@dhruboroy9784 true.....
@@dhruboroy9784 cow belts will give you shrap
@Gandhi ji we can force sterlise pandey family but we cant on abdul,this make us secular and liberal
Girl child of all religions will be found in dustbins
109 crores is still very high especially with all the automation by then. 70% of the people have to be on welfare.
Unlikely. It would mean new kind of jobs. There fewer jobs pre industrialization than today.
@@rohanabraham4461 population should be decreased to 200 million.
@@rohanabraham4461 those new jobs will require only highly qualified people. Given India's dismal education system and low education budget, most of the population will suffer unemployment.
@@ashwanikumar-gv6ir that can be more counter productive. We need to think of people as assets if we can train them
@@anirbansadhukhan4681 people thought the same thing during the industrial revolution. As you mentioned the education system must be improved that is for sure
A big reason for population reduction in india, you had missed, is migration: lot of people migrate to many foreign countries such as USA, UK, Europe union, Australia, etc..
Golden era of humanity will begin where only 5% of the people will do creative innovative work most of the physical work is automated 95% of people will get free food and shelter , they can concentrate on spirituality and relax the shit out .
I am 42 and unmarried..i feel content that i have done my bit to contain Indian population
I'm not going to have children of my own. If possible, I will adopt.
@Chirag Patel 😂😂
If possible, I will become the PM of India.
@Chirag Patel you already sound ignorant. Not everybody wants to adopt. First, my partner has to be convinced, then my family has to be convinced, then I have to apply at CARA.. I can tell you don't know what is CARA, then I have to be approved. So laugh all you want.
@Punch Hard don't worry, I will. :)
@@imayavarambannedunjezhiyan5222 if possible, you should try not to judge others.
Aww!, Guptaji is a fan of the infamous Lancet. What's essential in our country is also to look at the TFR of the various communities within our country. That will have a bearing on our future. PCB is need of the hour.
Muslims aren't having 10 kids per woman. And their TFR is declining faster than Hindus.
We Need Population Control Bill.
I think there needs to be an emphasis on educating men not just women. A woman can only be pregnant once for 9 months, whereas a man can have babies to multiple different women. Also, it's the men who are pressurizing women to have kids when they don't want to. So, educating men will help India reduce its population growth further.
Very interesting and fascinating, hope everything goes as per Lancet report. You provide information always something different than others and that's why I always watch your show, Thanks...
Has this study taken drinking water availability as a factor?
point to ponder over
And perhaps, non communicable diseases?
@ahs pm Wonder why Segar Guptha refuses to talk about the EIA 2020, though.
@Shiny Pikachu Not India. But, BIMARU states. High population and migration of BIMARUwalas is the root cause of all problems in India. Better fix that first...before it's too late. Saying 'too little, too late' later wouldn't really wwouldn't do anyone any good.
@Shiny Pikachu Not India. But, BIHMARU states. High population and migration of BIHMARUwalas is the root cause of all problems in India. Better fix that first...before it's too late. Saying 'too little, too late' later wouldn't really wwouldn't do anyone any good.
@Shiny Pikachu Yes, because of all the alcohol, soft drinks and bottled water, I suppose.
@Shiny Pikachu I'd like to see the day BIMARU states are industrialized, though.
@@imayavarambannedunjezhiyan5222 Did you even watch the video?
It changes my perception on India's population growth, for me the surprise is sub Saharan candidates
Last yr on economic survey had pointed out the slaggish fertility rate .
So India has only 20-25 years to be a high income country
Do you think it is possible?
that's right...you're correct
At this rate, nope.
World is closing & conditions are not favorable as was the case with China. India will even find difficulties ahead. Economic disparity b/w north & south India will raise demands for secession. There are politicians like DMK chief Stalin who wants this to happen. India needs to project itself as a strong rival to China & openly oppose China at world stage. Then US & EU will provide at least some help to grow stronger. Relations with China can be improved later.
Sir, there are many key points you have missed:
1. Could anyone in 1920 imagine the world of 2020? Or even 1980? Historical forces are hugely complex.
2. 2048 is too late. The peak has to happen by 2030. Already, our infrastructure is overburdened.
3. Is the fall in fertility uniform? What is the TFR of a particular faith in India? Lets be frank - this faith has a very high TFR. And what about gender-ratios? Falling significantly.
4. You have not taken into account the mass deaths than can occur due to nuclear warfare, biological warfare, and environmental depredations.
5. You have correctly pointed out that fall in TFR is a result of more women being educated and working. Our justice system provides little protection to women. Solve that first.
6. Immigration will be reduced drastically through robotics and AI.
I am proud to say that India has made remarkable, indeed epic, progress from 1991 onward. However, the war is far from won. India is the front-line for Democracy. Let all democracies world over appreciate this. Democracy will triumph or perish as a result of India's success or failure.
Population may not be problem but Demographic change is...
Yes, especially in the South by hindians.
We northeastern India is already facing the demographic problems where people from Bihar, U.P, Bengali and legally/illegally immigrated Bangladeshi are becoming huge burdens of state.... It's harsh statement for my other states' brothers and Sisters especially states that I mentioned above but it is bitter truth. If anyone out there do not believe me come to N.E to see by ur own eyes.
@@balobogo9592 I believe you, brother. Since we're facing the same problem, too, I can understand how you feel.
On an unrelated note, Hindus in the South eat beef and practice animal sacrifice, too. You're not alone. We're with you.
Vaazhga Thamizh Thaay! (Jai Aai Thamizh!)
Jai Aai Axom!
@@balobogo9592 This is our kind of Hinduism.
ua-cam.com/video/jXVKfSZayPs/v-deo.html
@@balobogo9592 I know bro... Problem of you is real... but this other one in comment section is chutiya...
Really appreciate this novel CTC report. Thank you!
Its data shows us that India is not going to become 'Vishwaguru' by 2100. I am sad😣
If he was muslim than no one will believe this words 😁
@@bazlur-Vancouver But in india muslims have the highest growh rate. hindus have far lower. don't change stats.
@Abhijeet Singh Deora So, you're saying there will be less hindian migrants in the South?
Muslims dont believe in his words.
@@gabbar51ngh Still, there are more hindiwalas than Urduwalas here.
@@adi_1o1 Yeah, Urduwalas tend to frequent Varadarajan maamaa's channel more than Segar Guptha's channel.
If you need population control, there should be the same civil law for every community. If a Hindu is allowed one wife only, so should it be for other communities. We can soon become a Pakistan or Bangladesh if there is no control on the Muslim community.
Well I’d like to correct you on that. Let’s say a man from Muslim community marries 4 women which is the maximum allowed in Islam and has 8 kids in total than it’s the same 2 kids/women average because those women would still bear 2 kids each if they were married elsewhere 🙂
I watch it at 1.75x speed and still feels natural😂.
Cutting the clutter in less than 15 mins😎
When BJP introduces Population control bill don't come back and say it is communal and don't come up with weird theories that they want to stop Muslim population to grow.
UP Bihar and MP is pulling India's socioeconomic indicators down.
indeed
@@vijayrangarajanramakrishna318 hey brother mp is around 8 crores what is the population of bengal and maharashtra ??
@@newsviewsreaction2156 of is it...I stand corrected..Thanks for correcting us...WB and MH are now the new boomer areas more than MP!!....lol!
@@vijayrangarajanramakrishna318 Bruh WB's fertility rate is 1.6, lowest in India and the world
This is very very Chill Attitude. *Kindly dont take this population explosion carelessly.*
Amazing piece of information.. Really changed the way we look at population explosion..Felt like sitting in the classroom room,but enjoyed it very much.Well done Sir Shekhar
Ha ha. We hope it was a fun classroom session, Mehar! Thank you for writing in.
One of the best and most information packed episode, Mr. Shekhar Gupta. Keep up the good work
I was refreshing youtube for about 15 min, from 9:45 wondering where is Cut the Clutter. Glad it's finally here..
My grandparents had 2 kids. My parents had just me. And I don't have any kid. This is out service for the country 🙏. Can I have old age pension 🤔.
Regards
Joy
United States can give you social security...immigrate to USA
Great way to glorify your failure to produce children
@Shekhar, you are too bad with million/billion, stick to lakh/crore.
Population explosion is not a big issue, but demographic imbalance is, such as e.g. Sikh Vs Hindu Vs Muslim, UP/Bihar Vs MH/Gujrat Vs Kerala/Tamil Nadu. In my opinion, this may further divide our society if proper actions are not taken with immediate effect.
India's population is its strength, that's why its services sector is most strong.
It's reaching threshold and saturation
We can't have 1 child or 2 child policy. Today many families want two sons. They won't let girl babies to survive. And then our society will become toxic to even existing women. Crime rates will rise. Toxic masculinity will worsen.
Plus even if you make the third child non- citizen, he or she will create havoc regarding their rights, and may even fall out of the system. It will be a nightmare to manage. Will they vote? Will they get subsidies? What will be the status of their children? Will that marriage be recognised? What will be the rights of their spouse if they are 'indians'? Things are complicated. The only way is to make sure that people start loving their girl child just like their boy child. Otherwise no point.
Plus not just some particular religious communities, but some people across all religions today produce more than 5 babies. They don't understand. They don't really care because they haven't lived any other way.
For the first time today, I skipped through #cuttheclutter, just to finish the episode.
Another superb piece.
Population is a problem for sure irrespective of whatever study say
Only in Bihar and UP. Rest of India is below replacement rate
While population is a problem
The bigger problem will be demographic changes which will cause civil unrest and violent riots
Strict family is required for UP and Bihar
and Especially for the Muslim population all over the country (I know their growth have continued to dip but it is JUST NOT enough)
North East need to be saved from demographic changes by stopping shrinking population of native people
@@subhxsish what about demographics
Demographics are very important for maintaining social order
World doesn't run on Gandhian principle
unknown
You are correct
@@jungos2697 people are to ashamed and awkward to admit that..
Started with a sweeping statement on Modi again. I love you to see above this . Journalism for our country not for a class. Thanks.
With the demographic ‘dividend’ we experienced the economic ‘lost decade’ of 2010s - makes you wonder that the role of demography in determining economic growth is grossly overstated. In the absence of capable and wise leadership, the dividend is already a liability. High unemployment can lead to social unrest sooner than we like to think.
Thank you for sharing this information. Have there been similar studies done in the past?
Comparison with past projections can reveal if peak is shifting further or closer and effectiveness of social measures.
Previous projection was that India's population will peak by 2059, but now lancet data refers that it will happen much early by 2048. I think a study after 10 years will make it another 5-6 years faster.
i don't think we need to do any thing to stop population growth
we need to now focus on freeing our economy on war footing in order to take advantage of this before it is gone
I was like 🤦🏽♀️ every time Mr Shekhar gupta said percent for fertility rate...
Fertility rate is a number per woman, not percentage...
Check the description. He mentioned that it was a mistake
You have excelled yourself! Thanks
Dear Mr. Shekhar Gupta, what would be interesting to understand is how the internal shift in demographics within India will impact regional politics, social cohesion etc. The recent migrant crisis reveals how disconnected state politics seems to be from national demographic and economic patterns. Would be good to hear your thoughts / analysis on how this study demographic/migration insights could impact politics at the regional/national level.
2100 - hindu population around 60 crores. Muslim population around 40 crores. How would this nation survive till then.. it's puzzling that in 1946 when muslim population was around 25 % they asked for a separate muslim homeland. What will happen in the coming decades presents a scary picture.
@@locomotive43 you are so naive
I stopped with one kid.. but then we are from down South.
What does that have to do with where are you from. I am a single child. I am from Himachal where birth rate is lesser than many south Indian states. And I am from up north
@Chirag Patel I am tired with this baseless north south divide
@@prajwalsharma213 Then, ask BIMARU-walas to less number of kids paida karna. Perhaps, Southerners wouldn't feel so wronged then. And do elect some South Indians as the PM of India. I suppose that would help, too.
@Chirag Patel So, you know which state he's from? Could you please tell me how you came to know about it?
@prajwal sharma
1. Narasimha Rao is the only South Indian to have completed a whole 5-year term in office as the PM of India in 7 decades.
2. I never said 'North India' now, did I?
3. You should learn to first read the comment, understand it, and only then reply.
@mayank d
1. So, why do you think Thamizhisai Soundararajan wasn't given the opportunity to be a Union minister? Because she was unqualified? Do check out her qualifications, please.
2. So, the national parties are incapable of raising leaders from among their own Southern cadres that they need to depend on voters like me to do it for them?
3. Think there has ever been a PM from TN or Kerala? Or, do you see the whole of South India as a single state? Our best bet was Kamarajar who gave up his claim in favor of Indira maami.
4. Nimmy maami is not a Tamilian, btw. She's a sanskritan. Her propaganda aka budget speech in the Parliament cleared up any doubts there might have been in the minds of Tamilians.
5. And I wasn't crying, btw. I was merely suggesting a way for the North to get along with the South. You can either take it or leave it. And you could always ask a person what he's trying to say before jumping to conclusions.
P.S.: The edit was necessitated by Segar Guptha and his piraameen paarppanaals who hide, delete and block my comments.
@@imayavarambannedunjezhiyan5222 Who the fuck I am to tell anyone what they should do. P Narsimarao was south Indian and he was prime minister of the country. Fyi North India has many states you seem like an ignorant guy who generalise north Indians. Check Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh two north Indian states and now compare it with South Indian states.
We need muslim rate of Gdp growth and hindu rate of muslim growth. Period!
Don't say India will not reach 160 crores. Don't underestimate UP & Bihar, they will keep their flags and flagpoles very very erect and flying for centuries.
lol..."flags and flagpoles.....erect"....lmao!!
If this show becomes a subscription only can we get rid of these irritating UA-cam ads! They screw up the momentum terribly each time!
While population is a problem
The bigger problem will be demographic changes which will civil cause unrest and violent riots
Strict family planning is required for UP and Bihar
and Especially for the Muslim population all over the country (I know their growth have continued to dip but it is JUST NOT enough)
North East need to be saved from demographic changes by stopping shrinking population of native people
I just can feel the love when Shekhar JU speaks of Bangladesh. Thanks.
The issue is not about population growth, but the growing inequality between populations. Growing inequality between states. How do we ensure this?
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Interesting.Please bring such topics.Enjoyed a lot.
Hey 22nd century Indians, Congratulations!!!
News in Year 2100,
-Anil kapoor won the tite of Mr. Youngest teenager of the century
-tarak mehta ka ulta chasma hua sedha episode -4366
-Successor of someone - "the solar system wants to know"
-Nach Baliye renamed "bas kar baliye"
-Big boss final of final of final season: picture abi baki hai
Very unique and interesting topic..very well articulated !
Hi Chandy. Thank you for your loyal support.
You are a wonderful teacher, Shekhar Gupta sir!
We may decline but 109 crore is a huge population anyways. Not sure how we would sustain it : 160 in 2048, 109 in 2100. USA- around 33 even in 2100, Such a role model !
excellent analysis..
The probability is that by 2100, India will be a Islamic country. The figure speak for itself, in 1951 the Muslim population was 9.8% (35.4 million) and in 2011 the Muslim population was 14.2% (172.2 million). As per expert data, the prediction for 2021 is approximately 16-18% (more than 250 million). I believe Hindu has already started planning their families right.
And we can never beat China for centuries :(
We will overtake China by 2025 or even earlier!!
@@vijayrangarajanramakrishna318 kaha se ata hai bhaiya apko itna confidence.
Beat China in Economy not in population because now we are same in population but just 20% of their economy
Thats your thinking
Why are so curious about population??
Rather we should focus on development
What alarms me more is that.
In 2100 up biharis %age in indian population might be 50% or something like that.which is saddening.
Actually India’s population degrowth will be much faster. 25 out of 35 states+UTs are already below 2.1. If you superimpose this data over the gender parity data in India then you will realise that Indian population has already peaked. Then pls reduce migration which is net minus. I argue that population will be 100 Crore by 2050 and we will start talking about reduction in population as early as 2025.
Is it peer reviewed? Or just another article like one on HCQ ??
It's premise seems wrong.. The maximum growth has already occured in india... If we had been able to control the explosion in the sixties and seventies, we might have touched a billion now... The alarming increase is what we are dealing with now..
Lancet is a peer reviewed medical journal
@@rohanabraham4461 One of his previous video on HCQ says that....Lancet apologized for publishing a paper that is not peer reviewed. But, that made a huge news that HCQ is not a life saver and just a publicity stunt.
@@pavanimmadisetty5099 that is a statistical anomaly. If a doctor wanted reliable information he would rely on Lancet instead of WHO
What's scary is that Muslim population will be equal or more than that of Hindus. Problem is not "Muslim" problem is "Izlam". It's our generations responsibility to tackle islam and defeat it ideologically to make India better for next generation.
Nobody leaves forever on this Earth my friend!!....Our planet Earth has seen billions of years!!..People have come and gone!!...Dont be so scared!
Source of this ?
Bullshit
We are seeing the results of hindutva ideology on india from last 6 years and it's scarier
@@CR7Ashironaldo Its evident. There's increase population % of muslims in most states in India barring one or two.
Very important topic. But, do not agree with the projections. Climate change is likely to have a big impact in the coming years
Tks sakher. This session of cut the clutter was briiliant because I found it out of box. Each sentence that u spoke out quoting the study made perfect sense. I found it equally brillant when u said that we should not scare automation......koteshwar dobhal
Fertility is falling faster than expected in India. As per the population scenario report (CCFR50) the TFR of India had already reached 2.1 in 2018. In the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5), 19 of the 22 surveyed states, TFRs were found to be ‘below-replacement’
Sikkim 1.1
Andaman and Nicobar Islands 1.3
Goa 1.3
Ladakh 1.3
Jammu and Kashmir 1.4
Lakshadweep 1.4
West Bengal 1.6
Andhra Pradesh 1.7
Himachal Pradesh 1.7
Karnataka 1.7
Maharashtra 1.7
Nagaland 1.7
Tripura 1.7
Kerala 1.8
Telangana 1.8
DNH & DD 1.8
Assam 1.9
Gujarat 1.9
Mizoram 1.9
Manipur 2.2
Meghalaya 2.9
Bihar 3.0
The findings were released December 13, 2020 by the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.
However, what merits serious concern is that this data was recorded before the pandemic wreaked further havoc on India’s population. Future surveys will show steeper declines in population growth as people are having fewer children during the Covid-19 pandemic
In India many people are rejoicing that the population will stabilize at the replacement rates. The population of a country is a complex dynamic system and cannot be stopped at anyone’s whim. The growth of the population has already come to a standstill and will start shrinking by the mid of the century.
With the falling TFR, the median age (currently at 26.8 years) is going to increase until the population peaks in about 28 years after which the median age will shoot up. Therefore, India has a small window of a single generation in which to complete its social development; once the window closes India will struggle to develop with a shrinking and increasingly graying population.