The exploit to recognize is that most opponents in live poker will not have enough bluffs to warrant a call when you see this type of aggression. Turn check raise vs the preflop 3 bettor followed by a river jam is an extremely value heavy line. Determining when opponents rarely have bluffs and being able to fold big hands is the #1 pro level exploit you must master to achieve a high win rate.
I think many players are miss using smal sizes when deep, i think the concept using small sizes multi way is over rated, J 43, why you bet smal to target 1 street of medium pockets. U are not playing 100BB deep, what about reverse implied odds against 2 medium pocket pairs.
Very cool hand. I think it's well-played by both players. When the flush comes in on the river and villain jams, sure, maybe the flushes aren't taking that size, but busted flush draws can no longer be used as bluffs, raising the question: Where are the bluffs coming from? The only logical answer is: 65s, which quite logically overcalled the flop and then bluffed the turn. This is a solver-approved line 200bb deep HJ v CO heads up to the flop. The addition of BTN in the hand juices the pot and lends extra credibility to the bluff, as a minority of players take advantage of spots like these: Heads up situations in formerly-multiway pots. I remember Bryce Paradis talking about this in a limit holdem context back in the days of yore. Meanwhile, hero's play is quite logical. The field just won't have enough bluffs on this river to warrant a call. (Even the turn call feels uncomfortable, despite the great odds.) A strong read that villain is a sicko might overrule this and allow for a calldown. You don't want the Ad on the turn (solver actually mixes fold with hero's combo in my sim), but you do want it on the river. But it only matters if villain can actually find this line with 65s, and even then it could still be close. JJ (3), 99 (1), J9s (1), 44 (3), and 33 (3) add up to 11 potential value combos, not to mention possible flushes, and we're still looking at just 3 bluffs. You'd need to significantly discount a lot of that value or find some extra bluffs to argue for a river call.
Agreed, although I would heavily discount 44 and 33 on the flop. With 2 diamonds out there multiway, I would bet these low sets that unblock top pair are check raising for protection at a huge frequency. I also discount J9s because of preflop, but that might be a mistake on my end given the pot odds from the cold caller. JJ (3), 99 (1), 44 (1) and 33 (1) is still 6 value combos and 3 bluffs assuming 65s is bluffed here. I would never assume 65s is being bluffed here at 2/5 live though. Tough one!
@@jacevincent2574 I would expect all flopped sets to check/raise at a fairly high frequency, even top set. Sure, JJ blocks top pair, but hero has a lot of overpairs to get value from and the board is a bit wet. But I agree that 44/33 would x/r even more than JJ. I do think a lot of live players call the 3-bet with J9s, but the population certainly doesn't do this 100%. So everything's getting discounted to some extent, including 99, which might fold flop rather than overcall, especially without a diamond. But 65s should also be discounted because of the population's failure to find turn x/r bluffs.
I don't know why you even have you think about the river. On the turn, most 2/5 villains are usually only check raising there with sets, J9, or flush draws. If that's his whole range, you're not beating anything on the river. I would snap fold.
This is one of those hands where the described situation (3am, game breaking down, some players a little tilty) makes me want to call wider than usual.
Bart, do we read anything into V's somewhat small turn raise sizing that would lead us to think he might be bluffing on the river? If he's repping boats on the river, don't his 2P and sets raise larger for value and protection on the turn? If he's repping non nut flushes on the river, don't those hands slow down and possibly check river when the board pairs, and hero could have drawn to the nut flush? Just seems like he can't rep both boats and flushes the way this was played.
The small bets on flop/turn invite a bluff. Villain thinks he can make you fold. I would jam turn based on caller’s assessment that V is crafty with bluffs and get my value against draws, and if he has a set so be it.
If Villain is capable of showing up here at the end with a hand like that (a weird bluff), then hero should have picked up on some tendencies on this player during the session. Hero should have known this player was capable of bluffing, or making loose plays; and it should have influenced hero towards the correct river decision.
What about QTdd? Watching the video through to the end- that hand is screaming out to me. So much equity on the flop he cant really fold with so much in the pot, especially after button folds on the turn?
Villian had a Boat, he called a 3Bet pre-flop, check & called the flop, ✔️ raised turn & shoved river! 5♠️6♠️ my ass. He wanted to stunt like he pulled off sum major bluff
If villain cannot have nut flush then a river shove with a board pairing diamond reads a boat or a bluff. This idea of playing the open ended straight with the opportunity to bluff a flush on the river isn't the worst idea. Because the river completes the flush and pairs the board I have to put the villain on a boat or a bluff.
The caller goes I don’t if this villain should be called more often cuz he’s capable and finds creative bluffs … NO SHIT that’s exactly what it means to call him
HJ could have potentially flopped a set or he could more likely have pocket 88s or J10 and bluffed you. So was this guy a knit or an action player is what I would factor in. With your amount of money committed versus the call size a fold is the better decision. It comes down to your read as well like I already said. Is he hamming it up or is he locked in stare at the felt? Is he not talking or trying to goat you? these are all factors along with just his aggression level. Pocket 99s does make sense but his 65 claim does as well especially if he plays a lot of hands.
@soren8994 My comment was kind of a joke but pod odds are a thing. He could be bluffing, and even if he isnt there's a 4% chance the river is an A which isnt insignificant since you're always good when that happens
It seems like a bluff on the river but people are pretty dumb with value hands sometimes. Could have easily had 2 pair or trips and took a similar line before the river.
@stephenmcarthur8490 the hero couldn't have a full house as played. Can make a better hand fold if you shove the turn or flop & wouldn't have to depend on making a hand.
seems like heros hand is face up for the villan after he only calls raise on turn. sets up villans play on the river. shouldn't most players fold over pair on this board given the action?
As I was watching I knew it was a certainty Bart would say the turn was a call and the river was a fold. The sizing both flop and turn was horrific and opened the door to the bluff. The more I hear the callers on this channel and the commentary from Bart I realize how incredibly healthy poker is because the training is horrid as is the play at almost all levels. The call on the turn is so bad rather than shove or even fold at that point, but folding is pretty exploitative.
I know Bart often preaches his “fifth street chicken” thing of calling turn and folding river even on a brick. But this isn’t an example of that. Calling turn and folding river is completely reasonable when the river brings in a flush draw.
Sometimes u have to randomize and the 9 of diamonds is the perfect card to call down on with such a good bluff catcher. Reduces boats, u block the nut flush, the all in action is a bit weird. And as u said, most players don’t bluff often enough so why would u give him credit for a turn bluff with diamonds?
The exploit to recognize is that most opponents in live poker will not have enough bluffs to warrant a call when you see this type of aggression. Turn check raise vs the preflop 3 bettor followed by a river jam is an extremely value heavy line. Determining when opponents rarely have bluffs and being able to fold big hands is the #1 pro level exploit you must master to achieve a high win rate.
Hero gets jailed due to bad *sizing* is a better title.
I think many players are miss using smal sizes when deep, i think the concept using small sizes multi way is over rated, J 43, why you bet smal to target 1 street of medium pockets. U are not playing 100BB deep, what about reverse implied odds against 2 medium pocket pairs.
Very cool hand. I think it's well-played by both players. When the flush comes in on the river and villain jams, sure, maybe the flushes aren't taking that size, but busted flush draws can no longer be used as bluffs, raising the question: Where are the bluffs coming from? The only logical answer is: 65s, which quite logically overcalled the flop and then bluffed the turn. This is a solver-approved line 200bb deep HJ v CO heads up to the flop. The addition of BTN in the hand juices the pot and lends extra credibility to the bluff, as a minority of players take advantage of spots like these: Heads up situations in formerly-multiway pots. I remember Bryce Paradis talking about this in a limit holdem context back in the days of yore.
Meanwhile, hero's play is quite logical. The field just won't have enough bluffs on this river to warrant a call. (Even the turn call feels uncomfortable, despite the great odds.) A strong read that villain is a sicko might overrule this and allow for a calldown. You don't want the Ad on the turn (solver actually mixes fold with hero's combo in my sim), but you do want it on the river. But it only matters if villain can actually find this line with 65s, and even then it could still be close. JJ (3), 99 (1), J9s (1), 44 (3), and 33 (3) add up to 11 potential value combos, not to mention possible flushes, and we're still looking at just 3 bluffs. You'd need to significantly discount a lot of that value or find some extra bluffs to argue for a river call.
Agreed, although I would heavily discount 44 and 33 on the flop. With 2 diamonds out there multiway, I would bet these low sets that unblock top pair are check raising for protection at a huge frequency. I also discount J9s because of preflop, but that might be a mistake on my end given the pot odds from the cold caller. JJ (3), 99 (1), 44 (1) and 33 (1) is still 6 value combos and 3 bluffs assuming 65s is bluffed here. I would never assume 65s is being bluffed here at 2/5 live though. Tough one!
@@jacevincent2574 I would expect all flopped sets to check/raise at a fairly high frequency, even top set. Sure, JJ blocks top pair, but hero has a lot of overpairs to get value from and the board is a bit wet. But I agree that 44/33 would x/r even more than JJ. I do think a lot of live players call the 3-bet with J9s, but the population certainly doesn't do this 100%. So everything's getting discounted to some extent, including 99, which might fold flop rather than overcall, especially without a diamond. But 65s should also be discounted because of the population's failure to find turn x/r bluffs.
Just me, or does anyone else not believe someone had a bluff if they don’t show it live but later claim it?? 🤔
Yeah, not saying that the opponent is capable of bluffing that spot but I don’t think most 2/5 regs can find a 65♠️♠️ bluff there.
I think it doesn’t matter….
As long as you make the right decision in that moment, results speak for themselves
There's no hard and fast rule. They could be pulling the ol' double whammy anyway.
I don't know why you even have you think about the river. On the turn, most 2/5 villains are usually only check raising there with sets, J9, or flush draws. If that's his whole range, you're not beating anything on the river. I would snap fold.
This is one of those hands where the described situation (3am, game breaking down, some players a little tilty) makes me want to call wider than usual.
Late night, short handed, using these tiny sizes with aces is such a leak. These guys want to be balanced… why??? Pump the pot pre, flop, turn
I agree, why are we playing 3am 2/5 live like it's some tough online game?
Bart, do we read anything into V's somewhat small turn raise sizing that would lead us to think he might be bluffing on the river? If he's repping boats on the river, don't his 2P and sets raise larger for value and protection on the turn? If he's repping non nut flushes on the river, don't those hands slow down and possibly check river when the board pairs, and hero could have drawn to the nut flush? Just seems like he can't rep both boats and flushes the way this was played.
The small bets on flop/turn invite a bluff. Villain thinks he can make you fold. I would jam turn based on caller’s assessment that V is crafty with bluffs and get my value against draws, and if he has a set so be it.
If Villain is capable of showing up here at the end with a hand like that (a weird bluff), then hero should have picked up on some tendencies on this player during the session. Hero should have known this player was capable of bluffing, or making loose plays; and it should have influenced hero towards the correct river decision.
I either fold or jam the re-raise turn. There is no point in calling to fold a jam on the river.
This one is a classic thank you
Can someone explain like I'm 5 why Bart says he would rather have QQ with Qd when facing a jam on this river?
What about QTdd? Watching the video through to the end- that hand is screaming out to me. So much equity on the flop he cant really fold with so much in the pot, especially after button folds on the turn?
Villian had a Boat, he called a 3Bet pre-flop, check & called the flop, ✔️ raised turn & shoved river! 5♠️6♠️ my ass. He wanted to stunt like he pulled off sum major bluff
If villain cannot have nut flush then a river shove with a board pairing diamond reads a boat or a bluff. This idea of playing the open ended straight with the opportunity to bluff a flush on the river isn't the worst idea. Because the river completes the flush and pairs the board I have to put the villain on a boat or a bluff.
The caller goes I don’t if this villain should be called more often cuz he’s capable and finds creative bluffs … NO SHIT that’s exactly what it means to call him
The Vilan made a good bet on the river. It got threw.
HJ could have potentially flopped a set or he could more likely have pocket 88s or J10 and bluffed you. So was this guy a knit or an action player is what I would factor in. With your amount of money committed versus the call size a fold is the better decision. It comes down to your read as well like I already said. Is he hamming it up or is he locked in stare at the felt? Is he not talking or trying to goat you? these are all factors along with just his aggression level. Pocket 99s does make sense but his 65 claim does as well especially if he plays a lot of hands.
I'm from Pittsburgh and never heard of Hollywood
On River after villian jams, Hero goes “I could have some boats here” hahahahaha NOPE u have zero boats sir.
Turn CR is very under bluffed. I think finding an exploitative told on the turn is reasonable. Also having the A of diamonds is not great.
but what about the pot odds! River could be an ace!
@@jacevincent2574what pot odds when relaying on the two aces? You're not getting enough pot odds for this😅😅
@soren8994 My comment was kind of a joke but pod odds are a thing. He could be bluffing, and even if he isnt there's a 4% chance the river is an A which isnt insignificant since you're always good when that happens
@@jacevincent2574 a joke? Okay
I call bs on the 56s, he’s really check raising there when the 3 bettor continues barreling on J-4-3-9 into two other players seems a bit of a stretch
It seems like a bluff on the river but people are pretty dumb with value hands sometimes. Could have easily had 2 pair or trips and took a similar line before the river.
KJ of diamonds might play like that
@stephenmcarthur8490 the hero couldn't have a full house as played. Can make a better hand fold if you shove the turn or flop & wouldn't have to depend on making a hand.
seems like heros hand is face up for the villan after he only calls raise on turn. sets up villans play on the river. shouldn't most players fold over pair on this board given the action?
When villain raises turn he’s really only saying he has two hands. 99 that floated. Or QdTd.
Is your comment meant as a joke? What do you know about the villain here?
Well op doesnt know what ‘floating’ is so what do you expect
J-8,10,Q,orK of diamonds?
Villains hand sounds like one of those the solver says jams 80%
If you fear villain having a flush draw on the turn, why wouldn’t you jam the turn?
The betting size is wrong. Another opinion is that you should not let two or more players see the turn or river if you have pocket Aces.
How do you give a hand a rating of 9.0 but you don't know what's coming?
Fold the turn and don’t tell a damn soul what you folded. X raises on turns three ways in a 3b pot is massively underbluffed
Play scared poker. What an exploit! Thanks, master.
65s...you tell him you have AA...he lied
He was DEFINITELY bluffed lol
5 6 of diamonds makes more sense
5-6 spades is such a BS hand to say they had. I would be more likely to believe that person had flopped a set of 3s or 4s.
Save yourself 19 Minutes,
Hero got SCARED with Pocket AA and Folded the Winner 🤦🏻♂️
As I was watching I knew it was a certainty Bart would say the turn was a call and the river was a fold. The sizing both flop and turn was horrific and opened the door to the bluff. The more I hear the callers on this channel and the commentary from Bart I realize how incredibly healthy poker is because the training is horrid as is the play at almost all levels. The call on the turn is so bad rather than shove or even fold at that point, but folding is pretty exploitative.
I know Bart often preaches his “fifth street chicken” thing of calling turn and folding river even on a brick.
But this isn’t an example of that. Calling turn and folding river is completely reasonable when the river brings in a flush draw.
Sometimes u have to randomize and the 9 of diamonds is the perfect card to call down on with such a good bluff catcher. Reduces boats, u block the nut flush, the all in action is a bit weird. And as u said, most players don’t bluff often enough so why would u give him credit for a turn bluff with diamonds?