How Republicans conquered Florida
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- Опубліковано 25 тра 2024
- Florida was once the iconic swing state. What happened?
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In 2022, before he began a campaign for the presidency, Ron DeSantis was reelected governor of Florida in a landslide. This was impressive and surprising because the 2022 elections were disappointing for Republicans almost everywhere else in the US. But DeSantis’s overwhelming victory was doubly impressive and surprising because when he had first been elected, just four years earlier, it was by just a tiny margin.
For a long time, in fact, tiny election margins were the norm in Florida elections. Florida was a “swing state” - it sometimes voted for Democrats, sometimes for Republicans, and was a major prize up for grabs in presidential elections. But by 2022, something had changed: Florida Republicans up and down the ballot won their races by margins similar to DeSantis’s, and no one was calling Florida a swing state anymore.
Florida seems to have undergone a political transformation. So what happened? In this video, we look at three possible explanations.
Chapters:
0:00 What changed?
1:49 Defining the question
2:52 New Floridians
4:10 Latino voters
7:05 Florida Democrats
8:26 The other reasons
10:09 A request
Read “The United States of Florida,” a contributor-supported project from Vox: www.vox.com/culture/23864468/...
We looked at …. a lot of data for this video. Here are the main sources we used:
County-by-county results in Florida elections from 2016-2022 came from the Florida Department of State’s Election Reporting System: results.elections.myflorida.com/
The screenshotted US Census page showing that Miami-Dade is mostly Latino can be found here, under the “data tables” tab: www.census.gov/library/visual...
Our map showing the “specific origin” of various states’ Latino populations was inspired by the University of Washington’s Great Migrations Project: depts.washington.edu/moving1/...
The data we used for that map came from the US Census via this very helpful tool: data.census.gov/table?q=B0300...
The chart about Spanish-language ad spending in the 2022 Florida governor’s race came from a post-mortem of the 2022 election by the research firm Equis. You can find it on page 59: weareequis.us/api/docs/qV8T7O...
And now for the big red bars. The Florida state party expenditures came from Transparency USA, an organization that tracks state-level campaign finance data. That data for Florida Republicans is here: www.transparencyusa.org/fl/co...
And Democratic state party expenditures are here: www.transparencyusa.org/fl/co...
The data on the best-funded state parties is from OpenSecrets, another org that tracks campaign finance data: www.opensecrets.org/political...
The chart at the end, which compiles spending from the national Democratic Party, was also based on information from OpenSecrets: www.opensecrets.org/political...
And the data on how much the state parties raised came from Florida Department of State’s campaign finance database: dos.elections.myflorida.com/c...
The line chart that shows total voter registrations for each party is based on data that Florida’s Division of Elections makes public: dos.myflorida.com/elections/d...
Finally, the data around voters who moved to a new state and new Florida registrations from 2020-2023 came from the data vendor L2: www.l2datamapping.com/
Vox is an explanatory newsroom on a mission to help everyone understand our weird, wonderful, complicated world, so that we can all help shape it. Part of that mission is keeping our work free. You can help us do that by making a gift: www.vox.com/givenow
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This video is part of a larger project at Vox, all about Florida. Vox’s reporters looked into what makes the state tick, from the economics of Disney World to who’s actually been moving to Florida and why. Check it out here: www.vox.com/e/23628509
And if you liked this video and want to learn more, I highly recommend this story by my colleague Nicole Narea - it’s a much more in-depth look at the forces behind Florida’s shift to the right and its growing importance to the national Republican Party: www.vox.com/e/23612938
Thanks for watching! Let us know what other states you think we should look at and why!
-Adam
Thank you so much for the knowledge. Keep it up!
Please follow Hawaii, there political views are very interesting
@@cantbothernamingHow so? I don’t know much about the political situation there.
Colorado and New Mexico would be interesting to look at. They’ve both kind of had the opposite trajectory of Florida.
😊😂😊😊
Florida is definitely Red.
But somehow Arizona and Georgia are now Purple.
would also add TX. Since it was only R+5.58% in 2020. From being R+22.87 in 2004. Since it was their peak.
@@onomatopoeia162003finally lol
There is a good chance Texas could go purple too.
In the interest of humanist progress, I'd say it's better to trade in energy and food-rich Texas for the literally sinking Florida.
@@Advent3546 I wouldn't hold my breath
As a native born Floridian, something funny I’ve seen among Cuban Americans is an irrational hatred of the Democratic Party due to the Democrat, JFK’s failed Bay of Pigs invasion. I think that the Hispanic vote is very important in Florida, and for now it’s firmly republican thanks to the Cuban population.
we need a new party tbf
@@JokeswithMitochondria hey man i got intrigued by ur name so clicked on ur channel. Your entire profile is a mood rofl
@@sterlingarcher8041 thanks for pointing it out xd. Best click of the week
biden is so old
I'm a Cuban and an anarchist..... though I'm also second generation immigrant
As a no-party, Floridian Cuban, I can say this was really well done. I think it'll bridge a lot of gaps of knowledge between groups.
Espero que no traiciones a los tuyos, votando por el partido que apoya a la dictadura, y quiere convertir a los EEUU en una porquería socialista más....
bffr
Any idea why your fellow Cuban's left authoritarian just to try to vote for it in the US? Trump & DeSantis are authoritian, especially Trump.
Crime, taxes, school choice, national defense, and rising inflation are the main reasons why people are leaving the Democrats and voting Republican.
Pecho frío
Kind of stuff I suspected but was really nice to see everything on charts. Was nice to see how small of an influence that new registered voters moving to the state had as well as how the Democrats gave up funding Florida. Very good video.
National Dem's giving up on states to focus elsewhere is a tale as old as time.
Iowa, Kentucky etc all used to be BLUE states. Dem's gave up on them.
The south until the late 90's early 2000's was consistently very Dem.
That's the region of the country that produced Bill Clinton, Al Gore, John Edwards, they currently have a Dem in North Carolina as Gov.
But as soon as states start being uncompetitive for Dem's for a couple of cycles they just give up on them. Ohio used to be a swing state for like 100 years. Now it's solidly red.
You could see Dem's give up on Michigan and Wisconsin in a couple cycles and just focus on Arizona, Nevada, Georgia maybe Texas.
i believe Ohio is much closer flipping blue than in Florida in foreseeable future having many urban centers of comparable size. One would have to campaign in Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Toledo, and Dayton to properly mobilize all those wells of democratic votes. It's not like, say, PA, where you have only Pittsburgh and the Philadelphia area, or Nevada, where it's Vegas....or even Georgia--Atlanta and Savannah.
People always mention Cuban immigrants for the reason Florida turned Republican. But they forget the massive influx of baby boomers from across the country moving to Florida for retirement that also added to the right wing shift, since boomers almost entirely vote Republican also. They're also the demographic with the most active voters, which has a drastic effect on local government.
We should cut Social Security so the boomers can feel the pain they created
Also gerrymandering.
Boomer Cuban alliance for the Win💪
@@ixiskeep crying about it 😎☝️
@@TheEverFreeKing Your win will be everyone's loss, and that includes you. You just don't see that yet because you are blinded by the pro-wrestling style tribalism right-wing politics seems to require these days.
High-quality research and data visualization
Good
Good
👍
Good video
Nice 👍
I was attending a conservative college in the panhandle of Florida during that election year in 2000. The school Deans, professors, and chapel speakers heavily pushed the idea of registering as a resident in Florida and voting for Bush. There were far mare than 500 kids, myself included, that voted as Florida citizens rather than doing absentee ballots for our home states.
this happens the other way now a days i go to ucf and that's all this is right now
Pensacola Christian?
Likewise I did about exactly the same thing.
liberals do this, only a lot more - they're always courting immigrants as well, their primary demographic. Dems LOVE immigrants and as a result literally every minority votes blue in a monolith with no exceptions, while White Americans vote red (minus the WASPy west coast and new england, full of wokies and blue bloods respectively)
Every time a lib said "Latinx" a Florida Hispanic voted Republican and here we are.
That is so true. I mentioned that in my comment. White liberals are constantly worried about offending people that they go too far in political correctness and end up offending everyone.
I still have never heard anyone actually say the word latinx in this state
@@saikikusuo7937 in-person neither have I but you always hear it online.
Lol. I hear ya bro.
@@saikikusuo7937 Exactly. You only heard it in the Democrats' messaging, which made them sound weird and off-putting.
An interesting note about Cubans: They were always a strongly Republican demographic, but in the 2000s they began drifting toward the Democratic Party. In 2016, Cubans voted the most D they ever have. Yet, in 2020 they did a sudden total reversal. Polling on specific issues shows that the reversal extended to more than party - Cubans had been slowly and steadily becoming less and less opposed to ending the Cuba embargo for years, and that reversed too, at the same time and just as dramatically.
How?
@@Maelstromme Well, that's the mystery.
Obama befriended Raul Castro, while making it more difficult for Cubans to claim asylum. This strengthened the dictatorship in Cuba while at the same time making it harder to escape it. That destroyed the reputation of the Democrats among many Cubans.
@@dariemperez6833But Hillary did better than Obama with Cubans. The swing was during trump’s term.
because during 2016 election, trump attacked rubio who is a popular senator and representation from cuban community.@@docjoe86
One thing not mentioned is the lack of higher level Democratic options for the ticket. When the candidate who won the Governorship in 2006 as a Republican is the best option the Democrats can put forward in 2014 AND 2022 (and loses both times), there is a obvious lack of viable options for the Democratic party.
You are quite right. This factor does need to be mentioned because the push for incarceration under "Chain-gang Charlie" (when he was a Republican governor) fell most heavily on blacks, and that group, a strong Dem constituency, may have just stayed home when he turned out to be the Dem candidate against DeSantis.
Democrats in Florida were somehow convinced that a guy with a track record of mostly losing elections that happened 10+ years ago was a better candidate than the only Democrat holding office at the time (Nikki Fried)
Because good candidates don't want to waste running in Florida they won't win
“One thing not mentioned” They literally talked about bad dem candidates at the end of the video
Also the Florida Democratic party is a mess of local parties, see the MCI maps newsletter if you're interested in this kind of thing
What an amazing video. Great research and production quality!
Awesome reporting! The charts and the research help us understand the breakdown and shift of the voters in Florida. It provides us a model to look at.
This happens sometimes, and it's always interesting to see it happen. I wasn't alive to see California go blue, but I was for Virginia to go from purple to bluish, and Florida to go from purple to red. The Midwest and Pennsylvania trending red, and Colorado and other western states trending blue. One has to be reminded that history is not just a result, but a process. We're always living through it.
I wouldn't say the Midwest as a whole is "trending red". Michigan is snapping back to blue in a dramatic way (the Dems got their first trifecta in 30 years at the state level). Pennsylvania is mostly staying steady as is Wisconsin as they become the new bellweathers. Sure Ohio has gone red, but they haven't gone as far red as Florida and their state GOP at least has a modicum of restraint (not much, but they do pull back sometimes). Indiana was always very red. Illinois is staying blue and mostly losing red voters (good riddance) so will probably get a tad bit bluer.
@@jonathanbowers8964 As someone who doesn't really understand the terminology of US politics I love the colour description
Illinois has always been Blue, and it continues that way(Part of the midwest). If the Republicans keep acting the way they do, they'll slowly lose more of their power.
@@jonathanbowers8964 Sure, it's always more complicated and fluid than that.
@@jonathanbowers8964Didn’t Trump win Ohio by like 8 points but only won Florida by like 4? Also Trump literally improved his percentage margins in Illinois so idk what are you talking about
I am from Miami and there has always been a huge majority of conservative Latinos. Most people here speak Spanish. It is not very Mexican but much more Caribbean with the majority Cuban. But you can find people from every Latin country here. Most people from Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and other countries vote conservative based on their perspectives of leaving their countries and governments, many of which have oppressed the people.
Strange that they vote against their own interests because conservatives are 90% white and specific viciously hate minorities ….
Are you saying they left conservative counties or they are leaving socialist countries? I think I know what you mean just confused.
The Democrats love oppression, slavery, censorship and outsourcing jobs.
we left countries destroyed by socialism so yeah we dont want that to happen here as well @@chad2522
@@chad2522they vote republican because they lived under socialist governments in Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Colombia, Argentina and many others. They see the democrats trending to be more socialist than before so they vote whoever is in the other side.
Excellent video, thank you. Very well done.
What an amazing video! I did research on this trend in July of 2023
I would love it if Vox did a similar video on Colorado over that same time span. It was definitely "red" circa 2000, but it has shifted purple, and finally to pretty much expected blue. Maybe it's just "the Denver Metro area got bigger" and it's not as complex as Florida, but I used to live there and I would like to see the numbers behind that.
It’s definitely just a “liberals in big cities” thing. Same situation playing out in Texas. Increasingly blue city-islands in oceans of red.
Latinos of Mexico
Or one on California, or NY - but we all know they'd never admit it.
Do your own research then instead of waiting for someone else to do it for you.
@@nuzzi6620The situation in Texas is more complicated than that. A lot of the Democrats' gains have been among not big city liberals, but moderate suburbanites repulsed by Trump (see Fort Bend and Williamson Counties for the most dramatic examples). Meanwhile, redward shifts among Latinos in the Rio Grande Valley is keeping the state Republican.
I'm always surprised and disgusted at how much money American political parties spend on politics and their elections.
Don’t be surprised, it hurts Americans. And if Republican voters can hurt non-white people in the process they’ll almost always pick the more corrupt or counterproductive option.
It's all a money game on both sides
@@Zachattackisrad No. It's 100% for republicans, and 50% for democrats.
@@airtale8725 Where are these numbers from? Both parties spend huge amounts of money on elections equally.
@airtale8725 There's more rich Democrats than Republicans. More Democrat lawyers too.
I appreciate the academic approach to an ongoing shift in political perspectives. Nothing happens in a vacuum and I’m of the opinion that even extreme viewpoints can change when facts are presented in an easily digestible manner. Really interesting how the people who are making money in this country right now are either involved in the supply chain, finance, real estate, law practices and advertising.
This is top tier journalism. Good stuff
The impact of Spanish advertising makes a tremendous difference even though people are being lied to their faces. Voters tell you that Democrats are socialists but when you ask them what is socialist about them, they dont know what to say. Ironically, the city of Hialeah has the largest Cuban population in Dade County, and a large segment of the population is on Medicare and/or Medicaid, so go and figure.
democrats just use hispanic voters thankfully hispanics are realizing this and switching to republicans
Ufff that's the story of every poor wight wing community in Latin America xD
@@Lapid34 unfortunately it is.
The fact that the example ad they showed is just trying to scare people with the words progresismo/progresistas inter-cut back-to-back is sad, both because you'd like to think more effort would be put into disinformation and also how effective it apparently has been regardless.
It's also a farce to compare a Socialist who is Democrat to a Socialist in Cuba or Venezuela. They aren't apples to apples comparisons.
I dealt with the Florida Democrats as a campaign volunteer in 2016. They were comically inept and disorganized. They couldn’t even furnish me with an up-to-date script for the phone calls to voters I was supposed to make! The Republicans have not won Florida; the Democrats have lost it.
Reaping a crop sown decades ago, and now it's a lost cause. The DNC was right to give up on the Florida Democratic Party; those resources are needed in races where the Democrat can actually win. Democrats don't compete in Mississippi for the same reason.
If democrats lost Florida and republicans are a majority then who still won? Democrats can’t get it together so ultimately will lose :))
We vote our values, not whoever the stranger calling me tells me to vote for.
@@spondoolie6450 I think America is slowly losing its identity if the “values” have been stretched big time because each sides have complete opposite values.
One wants to ban guns, open borders, abortion at a very late 9 months, child organ mutiliation which they don’t even know how to count to 100 yet.
America is losing its identity and becoming a bizzare one
And you'll never get it back
What a dystopia. I'm dissatisfied with next to all of our parties in Germany and yet the US has a total of 2. I'd go nuts as well
We're a multi party country.
Just that for whatever reason, everyone only votes for Republicans and Democrats.
If you think Germany is a dystopia, radicalism is likely the option for you. Vote AfD. Couldn’t be worse right? 😅
Liberals in America created a dystopia. The Republican areas are much more uplifting and inclusive!
The US has a lot more than 2 parties, but the main 2 work diligently together at keeping all the others off the ballot.
Your country is in the mud worry about yourself and stopping immigration.
Even insurance companies think Florida is a money pit. Stop bailing it out and focus on helping the people willing to relocate to an area that doesn't need rescuing every couple months.
The Fed needs to stop sending funds over there, for migrants since they bus them out anyway, for hurricanes since Republicans in FL votes down hurricane relief funds for other states, and many other things. Republicans want small government, I'd say give it to them and see how that works for them.
the fed needs to stop existing@@alexs1640
Florida is only going to get worse with regard to home insurance and the cost of living. As that happens I want the GOP to be consistent and keep government out of the problem and let the benevolence of laissez faire capitalism take care of everyone.
I agree. There are political Swing States in the North which contributed many old Red voters to Florida and are losing population.
Filling the gap left behind in the North with progressive Floridians gets them climate change protection as well
California is having the same insurance issues on top of its massive homelessness and petty theft problem. Hence why people are flocking to Florida and Fleeing California.
The voting numbers increasing correlating to the massive spend that republicans did kind of exemplifies whats wrong with our system.
What specifically about our system are you suggesting is wrong?
@@YG_39 the overblown importance of money on politics this implies? Since it means, that the intrests of people, groups or institutions with higher ability to spend money on politics take vast precendence to the intrests of everyone else.
@@taln0reichdid you not see the last chart on the video? Democrats aren’t even trying to spend money on Florida anymore. They could but they gave up
parties don't take over states without the votes of the people
the winner leans closer to the peoples interests
@@mike_404that’s kind of the point. When one party spends money and the other doesn’t then the one with more money usually wins. This is one of the things gatekeeping third parties from having more relevance in American politics since they lack the institutional funding dems and repubs get from their donors. It also means that large corporations and the wealthy have large influence over the policies pushed by both parties because political parties are so dependent on donors in order to win campaigns.
Great video, great presentation, very concise, well done
This was a great video. It was well-thought out and well-researched. Moreover, the commentators did not talk about either party. It was politically-neutral...Well Done!!
Well researched and intelligently presented. Nicely done video.
wow i havent seen a pfp like that in forever
@@xX_Knives_Xx when it was the default it was perfect, when they changed it I sought it out and made it mine again. Just captures that era
I- it was okay
@@10thletter40 why are you stuttering lol
Please do more descriptive videos such as this for other states! This was extremely interesting and informative! 💯💯
They won’t do one that says how democrats conquered California because before 1980 in CA it was red!
Good job Adam. Nice reporting
I'm not usually a fan of Vox at all, but I will say that this is actually very well put together and is a good example of solid, objective journalism.
Lol this video is full of misinformation.
Same I was waiting for the moment where they called everyone racist.
An interesting inverse to Dems in Florida is Republicans in Colorado: the state was a GOP stronghold with Bush comfortably winning it as recently as 2004, but Dems have carried the state every election since 2008. Colorado's last GOP senator, Cory Gardner, was defeated in 2020, and their gubernatorial and senate candidates were routed by large margins in 2022.
The state GOP has been having comical amounts of infighting and it is also possible that they may lose another house seat come 2024, since Boebert was only re elected by 500 votes or something.
And Arizona is next. With the Republicans running with the nuttiest nuts they have available, that just doesnt appeal outside their bubbles.
People from Cancerfornia moved there and turned it blue.
@@Ayumu88 Yep.... and they got rich... so they think they are doing righteous by voting for Dems... Like HollyWood.
@@Ayumu88 Saying that with an anime profile pic makes me laugh
When people vote, especially the young, Republicans lose.
This is brilliant. Simple, objective and so informative. So much information distilled into 10mins
Thank you for sharing.
Really good work. Thank you!
Here in Canada, I think we're going to see a similar trend among the Chinese Canadian community, which makes up a large portion of the population in Toronto and Vancouver. The Conservative Party underperformed last election and has dumped a LOT of money into campaigns into Chinese Canadian communities since then, and also seems to have bought out the Chinese language media as well. Next election, I expect to see a lot of Chinese Canadians swing to the Conservative Party's side and I'm not sure if it'll swing back again anytime soon.
Has the NDP done anything to get their vote since they are the ruling party in BC?
Given the mess the Trudeau government has created, CP won't have to spend a lot of money on that, lol.
@@ricardobarahona3939You're talking about the provincial NDP there, not the federal one. I'm talking federal parties. But to answer your question, I don't think any BC party has been outstanding at reaching the Chinese Canadian population. I think they're all doing more or less the same.
@@dariemperez6833 Actually, quite the opposite. The Conservatives crapped the bed with the Chinese Canadian community last election. They lost several ridings with high Chinese Canadian populations that had been strongholds for years (even decades). So they had to spend a LOT in the Chinese Canadian community recently to try to win voters back.
@@dariemperez6833Trudeau isn’t nearly as widely disliked in many parts of Canada as American media might insinuate. Especially in Quebec and the Maritimes, Trudeau is very well liked. Plus a lot of people feel there isn’t a good alternative to Trudeau. Singh is a bit useless, and Poilievre is very polarizing and controversial. Even though he tries to maintain a moderate approach, many see him as dragging the Conservative party in a more American conservative direction, which many Canadians don’t like.
This video is absolutely awesome. Working every day with charts & figures ppl don’t realize how good these are. Kudos 🎉
Amazing video. It is absolutely perfect for the standard of electoral geography that I studied at university
I appreciate the fresh approach Vox presents the news
Excellent topic choice, research, and presentation. Vox bringing in a fresh approach to journalism, gives me hope for the US’s potential energy in the next generation to exist in actual reality again!!
Completely agree! I think as the mainstream networks (CNN, MSNBC, FOX) all become so polarized and devoid of fact, Vox is a welcome sight. It is my personal belief that if you want to follow the news, you should follow 3 places: The Hill (center), Vox (Left-wing, but very fact based), Daily Wire (Right-wing, but very fact based)
@@mbstrongslmao, brother said daily wire 😂
@@RightCorrections What about the Daily Wire? He also said the Hill and Vox.
Translation: they say what I wanna hear. I read similar comments at Fox News
People really still don't know what a bot account.
As an european (german to be exact), it's always interesting to learn about american politics and how seemingly simple, yet internally complicated it is.
Also i love this channel in general😁
Vox is a discredited sloshpit mate, it's like trusting the BBC at this point... you know, that state backed media org that is on record as lying multiple times.
There's several things you as a German probably don't know about why our system is so broken. The biggest being that they don't teach critical thinking in grade school here, i.e. kindergarten through 12th grade. If you challenge a narrative (history is just an interpretation of events after all), teachers will scold you (as I was). College is the exact opposite here, where you are rewarded for asking questions about a narrative, or why something is the way it is. They don't teach you about fallacies either until college. This means the masses on a whole are easy to manipulate, as less than 25% of Americans have gone to college. They are told thinks like universal health care leads to dictatorship, even though as you know personally in Germany, it does not. They can't see through this because again, they are given examples like Cuba, and say "see, that's what universal health care will lead us into", but the majority of American people don't have the critical thinking skills to say "well how come Europe has it and they aren't full of dictators?". It's very easy to show that the narratives Fox news pushes for example are fallacies, but that side of the isle only sees the fallacies. They stick to their little bubble of news, and now with social media, it's easy to surround yourself with people who will reconfirm your incorrect narrative. And they don't have the education to question the narrative they are being fed, they just eat it up because it's easy.
@@heyaisdabomb K-12 education in the U.S. is decentralized. School curriculums differ depending on the state and the school district. It really just depends where you get your education.
@@heyaisdabombSo , they basically makeing "Democrat-Jugend" from them
Florida = everything that is good about America 🇺🇲
The people that moved to Florida because of the low taxes are now complaining about a lack of infrastructure, high cost of housing and insurance, poor public transit as well as water restrictions. You get what you pay for.
Who’s complaining? In Florida my family bought a brand new 3 bed 2 bath for $205k, $600 mortgage. Whereas I live in Southern California and for my two bedroom apartment my rent is $2825 a month. I’ve noticed much better infrastructure in Florida than I have in California. And you could said SoCal is a desirable place to live and that’s why the cost of living is so high, but Florida is too. Gas right now in California is $5.40 a gallon whereas in Florida about $3.20. Wages are similar too! Trust me when I get the chance to leave California I will in a heartbeat!
If you are ever in Key West, go to the Botanical Gardens. (It's actually on the neighboring key.) They have a collection of "chugs". Those are the boats that Cubans came over on the Muriel Boat Lift in the late 70s. They just have them sitting around with the engines still sitting in them rusting away. Pretty amazing to see these things. You can just go up to them and look at them.
Another wonderfully informative video, but your team always does SUCH an amazing job with the infographics, I'm always blown away!
This was so interesting; I grew-up in Missouri which used to be a Bellwether state, but clearly is not anymore. I haven't seen much national conversation about this and would love to see something similar re: that topic.
it's not just Florida, we are in the middle of another great migration, Georgia NC and others are turning blue
@@danielzhang1916 North Carolina is stagnant
@@survivalsuiters5982 i feel like NC will go blue eventually due to the growth of the RTP area
@@danielzhang1916NC is a solid red state. Two republican senators, republican supermajority in the house, and red in elections. Just because it’s close does NOT make it a swing state.
@chad2522 The strong hold the Republicans have in the NC state house is due to gerrymandering. NC is definitely purple now, but it'll be a while before local elections catch up.
Very informative!
Great piece. Thank you.
Love the statistics and data visualization here. Well done.
Very good and helpful (informative) video. Good job VOX! The graphics make it easy to see the trends.
Probably the only other big thing that's not mentioned in the death of the Southern Democrat in many southern states, that ended with the mass landslide elections of 2010. Reps like Allen Boyd in Florida's 2nd were in long time Dixicrat/Blue Dog Democrat areas and were defeated with general national trends going against Democrats in traditionally Southern areas.
Back in the Reagan era, Democrats had a massive House majority (240-260 seats) yet most of Reagan bills got passed cause there still was a conservative majority of Republicans, Southern Democrats and a few Democrats in the Midwest.
Sonny Perdue in Georgia is another good example of southern dems flipping to the republicans in about 2000
Why did FL blue dogs last so much longer and drop off so dramatically? That is a side factor present in other states too. It isn't the main one.
That movement started in the 1920s, Followed by eisenhower winning a few southern states in the 1950s. Today, Democrats eject anyone who is pro life pro gun or openly opposed to socialism.
Meanwhile Georgia and maybe North Carolina:
as a cuban living in florida i can say this is great to see
Do you have a similar video on Ohio? We were a swing state that voted with the election winner almost every year until 2020. We also have Republican supermajorities in our Congress.
I have always loved vox because while it is a more left leaning group it doesn’t paint either party as evil, it always takes a more outside perspective like they are trying to actually explain stuff rather than indoctrination unlike larger news sites.
Still talking heads with an agenda, but they at least present facts woven through their explanations.
I agree, although the title is clickbaity
@@normanclatchereveryone's got an agenda. Everyone's got a political lean. I hate when people mention that like it's some kind of key info that changes the game
Having a political opinion is a natural progression from breathing. It's called being human
They're very guilty of "lie by omission" though - ignoring stuff that would embarrass them, to be fair that's not a 'left' thing that's just selfishness/ego.
Alot of "technically true" things but completely devoid of context and nuance, so better to read more on the sources and do your own research to get a full picture if something catches your eye.
I think the term you’re look for is they’re very “Liberal”.
I feel like this is the opposite version of what happened in California. As the Latino population grew in CA, the Democratic Party began to take hold and basically ran out the entirety of the Republicans.
Basically, the Latino vote is very important.
hardly disagree; you can argue the majority of Cubans and Colombians in Florida lean right (republican)
calling all latinos all the same is like calling all europeans the same.
Latinos are not a monolith, Democrats keep failing to understand this.
@@santiagocarreno5881Nah. /
Which is funny because most conservatives in charge hate latinos and want to get rid of them. Ironically, it wouldn't be the USA without them
To younger people in Florida, please do not register yourself as independent. Florida is a “closed party state” meaning you can not vote for either Republicans OR Democrats. While I understand most of the complaints of both party’s this is only causing more problems for both in the end. As now, we have a large amount of independents that can’t vote for candidates that’ll have an actual chance in winning.
I agree that it’s a waste of their vote, but I think that’s the point. Voting for a third party is almost always done as a protest of the two party system, not really an attempt to get the third party elected
We can still vote for the other candidate. We just have to vote with our party affiliation in primaries. The two party system is broken. For me, registering as an independent is a way to send our message to the government that we want better parties.
@@pipermurray1794 OP left that out. I suspect she meant to type "closed _primary_ state". In the general, you can vote for whomever you want, but unless you register as a Democrat or Republican, you can't improve the candidates on offer who could possibly win.
It’s the same in NY. A blue state. Independents can’t vote in primaries.
@@radancom1312 yea but ur an anarchist and you dont know anything
This is journalism at its finest. Thank you Vox for not sucumbing to the temptation to take the easy way out.
that seemed to be really well researched and it was amazingly explained. Great job, thanks!
Vox's visual storytelling--with research-based data and patient narrative--is some of the best I've seen (coming from a director at an innovation consultancy that has a foundational research capability).
This video had EXCELLENT investigative journalism. Def passing on well earned $$ to Vox bc of this.
Thanks for this.
Adam … this was amazingly well put together. Wow I truly enjoyed this. Thank you. I’m now a supporter to your work.
As a former Floridian, I can confirm it was a brain drain. Republicans drove down wages for (non-healthcare) educated residents then Governor Desantis allowed rates to skyrocket. Furthermore, Florida pays 1/3 of my high IT salary. Many non-doctor/nurse friends experience the same problem.
something I should probably keep in mind since I’m trying to get into law haha😅
So explain the state of California, the liberal cities like San Fran, LA, Seattle, and Chicago? All run by dems FOR YEARS and yet they have the highest crime, highest homeless and highest number of people leaving those places?
Yeah, I'm GTFOing out of here soon myself. I got a 50k payraise to move to another state. Same workload, same job requirements. It's just Not In Florida. I had to move back in with my mother to make ends meet here, and back when I lived in an apartment there wasn't a single person among my neighbors who'd been here for more than 3 years. Half of them were whining about how they didn't realize how expensive it was once their employers cut their pay to be more in line with Florida's (lol) and how it wasn't too hot to go outside when they came on vacation back in November and December.
@@SkySong6161 that's actually an issue where people go somewhere on vacation and see this microcosm and think it's some dreamland and then move there on a whim after having done little to no research and then realize the shiny luster wore off and it has it's own problems too.
@@jspihlman yeeeeeeep. I was born here, so I'm well familiar with the whinging from tourists who move here and are shocked to find out that living here isn't so different (and in a lot of ways, worse) than other parts of the US once you're not vacationing on a resort. "Nobody wants to be friends!" Cause you're leaving in two years and we're not on the clock anymore. 😆 it's like the guys who think the stripper's real name is candy and she actually loves him, but on a state wide level.
Awesome report , well informed etc. .
Great video, well done.
Excellent deep dive, appreciate the work you guys do!
Also, Florida has the highest percentage of old people and they are usually very conservative and tend to vote red.
Makes me wonder how much of this conservative surge is merely the terminal input of privileged Boomer retirees before they're buried under(water).
that’s nowhere near the right answer since lots of old people in florida are old liberals
@@Sam-TheFullBull a lot of the old conservatives i find tend to retire in states like Arizona where there are less storms.
That is a recent phenomenon. Most old people moving to Florida traditionally come from the Northeast, a traditionally Democratic area that votes blue.
Lol you really need to watch the video
i think we all can agree that florida is the most interesting states in the country
Florida is the best state in the US to live. The cheapest life costs. But Miami is a bad city. Public transport is nonexistant, a lot of comute time.
Florida needs it's own New York. Because it's absolutely ridiculous how car-centric it is
This was great, thank you. I would love to see one for Ohio too.
This is probably one of the best, well-put together, and statistically sound research Vox videos. Thanks for looking at the magnitudes as well and having a clear logic flow.
Imagine having a multy-party system
Imagine having a _"RANKED-CHOICE"_ Voting System!
Must be nice
Awesome video as always
I think there’s a big clue missing, which is Ron DeSantis‘s handling of the pandemic, which is universally loved here in Florida
Wat
I’m pretty sure there’s no consensus on all people liking it lol
@@bantxc5616 not everyone, but it’s hard to find somebody that doesn’t. I don’t really like the guy, nor would I vote for him. But I do like the way he handled the pandemic. Never felt out of normalcy here, Almost no Business failed and the economy boomed.
Florida is gerrymandered.
You've done great bringing Vox back.
Great video your educating America on what Florida is all about. It’s so funny to see the national media when they see results come out of our state. I can’t understand is always the first thing they say.
Oh man Gta 6 is gonna have a lot of satire to light up
This is a great video. I’d love to watch a similar analysis for Ohio!
Yeah I don't think we are a swing state anymore. Republicans have firmly gained control here in Ohio the same as Florida. We voted for Trump instead of Biden in 2020 like Florida too. It was the first time Ohio had voted for the loser of the presidency instead of the winner in several decades.
This Vox video is spot on 100% It’s like they read my mind and saw my life through their lens.
Amazing! I loved this!
Well done, well explained.
A great in-depth look into a former bell weather state!
Can you do one on Ohio sometime?
As a Buckeye, I second that. Born in 1961 and as long as I could remember this was a swing and often bellwether state. Left in 2007, returned in 2020 to find a state where in all but eight of 88 countries at best, red victory in elections at all levels was a given. Some ideas could be loss of factory jobs, decline of coal, dramatic decline in union membership, Fox being the "news" of choice
as an ohioan i can try to explain a little bit also. Lets take a look at Ohio historically, the Dems did very good in Northeast ohio and lake shore ohio and broke even with GOP in coal country. They did mildly in other areas, like central ohio, and northwest ohio and got oblierated in south west ohio. Since then, northeast ohio has had a massive population exodus, and coal country has become more red. Obama came around and was able to hold off Bush and Romney in southwest ohio meaning he lost 55-45 instead of 65-35 (they think Bush caused crisis and Romney killed jobs)and ran up the numbers in northeast, however he too got beat really badly like 70 -30 in even in the sizable southwest counties. Clinton, got dominated in southeast ohio cause dems had correctly, better late than never i guess, had become more climate aware and wanted to reduce coal. So its pretty obvious she got beaten pretty bad there, but the interesting thing is that she lost some of the big typically Dem counties like where Dayton is and where Toledo is and got obliterated in Southwest ohio. That combined with 3rd party and a general malaise for her amongst the union goers doomed her. Joe came through and got those traditionally Dem city counties back, and did better in union-gelical counties.... like Delaware county(don't listen to Chuck Todd, counties like Delaware are unionized evangelical and chamber of commerce both). Joe also got beaten 60-40 in southwest ohio.Neither of these last 2 dems have been able to get the traditionally dem lake shore ppl back, and all 3 of them did really poorly in southwest ohio (traditional R, evangelical chamber of commerce, farming, military). With the population of southwest ohio, especially cincinnati area, this is not great to still be losing 60-40 in the general area. So the moral of the story is, fossil fuel/ mining class in lake shore and SE ohio left in droves, and the college educated in the SW and even more college educated in central ohio (not talking about franklin) havent come in. Dems should focus in getting the lake ppl and the college educated imo.
Pls ask some questions so we can have a discussion, this is fun.
Simple: Cleveland and Toledo have heavily declined and the growth in Columbus and Cincinnati is not enough to offset it. Thus the red rural areas outnumber the urban counties
@@monsternotgangster6984 I myself am a conservative from Ohio (Im not a hard line republican voter but Dems haven't really presented anyone in my lifetime that I connected with.) I believe with the new Intel plant being built in Columbus it will attract alot of liberal voting people to the very high paying jobs there. Ohio I feel sits in a weird position of not really being a radical republican state but much more in line of the general mid west of being more bi-partisan or at least more reserved than the costal statue republicans and democrats.
Cincinnatian here! Love to hear the conversation about OH! Ohio is becoming more Southern (politically speaking) than some Southern States (GA, VA, NC). This Tuesday, November 7, 2023 is going to be pretty wild with issues 1 and 2. What will be so interesting to see is how "Conservatives who value freedom, personal choice and less restrictive government" will choose to vote on two issues that will allow that freedom to increase.
I think the growing "No Party" group is the next thing to look into. There's so many reasons that I feel most people aren't talking about and just chocking it all up to "Florida is just red." It feels too reductive to be the case when I see "No Party" outnumbering either party.
im European even tho I've looked at your system of voting I somehow feel I understood nothing, like if you're "no party" does that mean you can't vote for other parties? or it just mean you don't want to be associated to any of that and vote for whoever you want and remain as apolitical as possible? I understand that it is a system fit for such a large country, but the no party thing is new to me, note that I've never vote even in my own country, have a nice day :)
@@christianmarly if you are unaffiliated, you cannot vote in state elections. Specifically because parties run their own elections. So if you're a democrat, you can only vote in democratic elections, and thusly for republican ones. Once both parties have voted for their candidate, THEN everyone gets to vote, even those with no party (so long as they are registered to vote, which is a whole nother can of worms).
@@penguwave4025Geez, your first sentence really needs to be fixed. Non-affiliated voters can vote in state elections.
They cannot vote in primary elections, which are elections to decide the candidate for a party in the general election, like you described afterwards. This is called a closed primary election system (for the other person).
@@polarbear1713 sorry, my bad. An error in the parlance. What I am trying to say is that non-affiliated voters cannot select the candidates, just vote on who is offered by the parties at the end of their whole cycle, or pencil in their own.
Actually there are more than 20 states with open primaries or non-affiliated primaries. Go figure! One good reason to be unaffiliated is to avoid endless solicitations for donations.
Very good, honest journalism on this one 👍
This is what good election analysis looks like. Great job!
This was great and really well done.
Awesome video, guys. Excellent narrative and explanation of the graphs. Great job.
Not only Miami-dade County that went red but Palm Beach County as well.
In response to 7:30, something to keep in mind. Rural Florida Republicans mostly registered democrat but voted Republican in the general elections. This is a holdover from the "dixiecrat" era. I'm in my mid 20s and even my parents were registered democrats until recently but voted Republican.
Same here in Virginia. My grandparents were registered Democrats but voted Republicans the rest of their lives.
Yes but Florida being a closed primary state if you are registered Republican you are voting Republican at primary.
why would they "register" as Democrats if they voted Republicans?
High-quality research and data visualization. You don't even have to agree with Vox's leaning to see that the underlying analysis is insightful and persuasive. Great journalism as always, Vox Video!
sarcasm much?
I thought I was going to get really depressed watching this and truth be told I really should be, lol. But this was really explained without negativity and just pure facts. I appreciate that.
What is depressing to me is the facts about how the Democrats stopped any significant spending in Florida. Why would they give up on such a large state with so many electoral votes? I believe our country is healthiest when there is a balance between the two parties. What can be done to revive the Democratic Party in our state?
@@karenryder6317 Ugh. I understand that feeling. I personally tried to get legislation passed in Virginia for getting the corrupting influence of money out of politics. Then kids happened and then side jobs happened, bla bla bla. Ya, in terms of money being spent, the DNC has abandoned Florida. So you do not have that balance, which is very unhealthy, like you're saying. And what's even more particularly frustrating is that a ton of retired old people who don't care about what's happening in Florida over the next twenty years are just mindlessly voting for Republicans. I know that Stacey Abrams and others led brilliant grass roots efforts in states like Georgia in order to flip them blue, though.
no we need more parties also if flordia turns blue would cali turn red to counter it if just red states go blue or "purple" but not blue states that is not balance@@karenryder6317
@@karenryder6317If you only have a limited amount of money to spend to try and win elections (which the Democratic Party does) Then it just doesn't make sense to spend money on a race you think (wrongly or rightly) that you're going to lose.
Every dollar you spend in one state is a dollar you're not spending somewhere else.
@karenryder6317 it you watched the video close enough you would know what needs to be done. Democratic policies were the biggest contributor to people moving to Florida similar to Texas. If you want Florida back to blue state you need to get other blue states to stop creating situations were people are willing to spend money to leave their state for Florida. No conservative wants to head West so that leaves the beaches of Florida.
High quality research.
This was very informative and had great data visualizations! I appreciated it as one of the minority democrats who recently moved to Florida.
Florida is currently suffering from some of the worst brain drain that any state has suffered from in American history.
Affordable housing is important for smart people
@@jasonsmith530Florida has the highest inflation in the country. Lol
@s.r6331 no it doesn't. I have friends who live in California and a couple of friends who live in Hawaii(in the military), and it's way worse.
@@pimmyflores8739CA and HI already had high costs of living.
@@pimmyflores8739 well that's not what stats say. So..
Exactly. Totally 100%. I’ve been saying this for a while now.
Great work
Florida better not flip back, it better stay red until I'm dead
Very good article here, the one thing not explored was how awful democratic turnout was in 2022. While republicans were expecting to win Miami Dade in this election, not as much can be said for Palm Beach which also heavily swung. But the Democratic Party in Florida is in shambles and we are often given very unpopular candidates. The actual democratic turnout was around 45% I believe while Republican was in the upper 60s%. That right there would hand someone a large win.
Meanwhile in next-door Georgia, they're increasingly becoming a battleground state all over again (at least, on the federal level). How the times have changed.
It's because Atlanta is a hotspot for liberals. 2/3 of Georgias population lives in the Atlanta metro
Easier to get last-minute turnout in Georgia, if ya know what I mean
One Word: Desantis