Why Were Economists So Wrong? Inflation Has Cooled and the Economy Is Strong
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- Опубліковано 4 жов 2024
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High inflation rarely has been tamed without precipitating a recession. Few economic prognosticators thought it could be done. Yet the Fed has steered inflation down toward its 2.0% target while allowing the US economy to fly, avoiding a hard landing. Today, we look at the projections of economists who expected a hard landing of the economy and why their trusty models and indicators failed them.
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Thanks Ed
Avoiding a recession is like running a marathon but one that never ends.
how did we have a financial crisis last march? the government bailed everyone out, zero jobs were lost and the s&p soared
The economy is great. As long as you're part of the 1%. The economic numbers are manipulated continually. If you eat. Need a roof over your head. Pay for daycare. Need house and car insurance times aren't so good. All these charts are just noise in an election year.
its not easy out there. i bought a sunday paper and an ice cream bar last Sunday and it was $8.25.
Spot on
I am okay since buy dry food for survival and stock up a good 5 year supply. I eat 2 helpings a day and lost all most half my weight in a year’s time! 😊 It likes eating army ready meals! Cost $7 a meal! $14 a day or $91 a week. $364 a month!
@@Agent77Xglad you're happy eating like a popper. If the doomers are right, many will soon have to do the same.
Very informative thankyou very much.
Core CPI has averaged 0.325% over the last 3 months, or 4% annualized. The latest reading was the strongest since April 2023. The only metric to point to is Core PCE but even that appears to be bottoming. How do we get to 2% inflation if the fed cuts right now?
Did you take Max to the vet??
I did...and he is much better. Thanks for asking.
He obviously hasn’t looked at the core cpi or poi lately. Inflation pulled back. That’s all. Now ira bouncing back up. If they do QE it goes higher as money supply increases.
Strong economy? How about debt based economy. It’s called stagflation.
Economy is not strong - Markets because of some specific companies (esp silicon valley companies) and bay area made $$$
Go to other parts of the country and find people struggling
Ed you didn't share with us important information: How many grand kids you and your baby boomers friends have
'Promo sm'
Forget NVDA, let's talk SMCI:)
Has it cooled, though, really? Inflating at a slower rate isn’t something to write home about. Just saying the economy is great and that the rich aren’t driving up prices for the bottom 80% doesn’t make it true, Brandon.
It has stabilised. It is neither falling nor rising. If it stays around 3-4%, that's the golden ticket for the economy to keep humming. Sucks for the middle and lower classes though. But that's why people should invest in the stock market!
@@method341 it’s a bit early to say it’s stabilized, don’t you think? Personally, I am fine. Except I don’t want a US where crime and homelessness are rampant and young people have little chance to get ahead if they don’t already have generational wealth. There are already plenty of places like that in the world. I don’t want to see barrios in the US. More barrios, that is. (i.e. tent cities)
@@zwatwashdc well the Fed are stuck between a rock and a hard place. They can't cut OR raise. They are at the mercy of the business cycle currently and praying it just works itself out.
Goods sector is deflationary and has been for awhile it’s the service side that is still a problem.
The rich AREN'T driving up prices for the bottom 80%. It's not like the top 1% of people are out buying so much more hamburger and cheerios than they used to that prices were forced to go higher to bring demand back into balance. Prices went up because governments all over the planet shut down their economies and then the US government in particular dropped helicopter money on everyone. 60% of that helicopter money was dropped by the Mango Mussolini. The resulting inflation hit with a lag, as it always does. And the economy is great. 4% unemployment is great.
This guy is only looking at the current situation. He is not looking down the road . He will not know what is about to hit him hard !!!!