Why Everyone Hates the Economy Now
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- Опубліковано 3 лип 2024
- On this special episode of Live from The Compound, Kyla Scanlon joins Downtown Josh Brown and Michael Batnick for a conversation about her new book "In This Economy?: How Money & Markets Really Work."
Pick up your copy of Kyla's book: a.co/d/gLYmZgH
Check out Kyla's channel: @KylaScanlon
►00:00 - Intro
►01:44 - Kyla's book, "In This Economy?"
►04:56 - We're not in a recession
►14:20 - The inaccuracy of online discourse
►19:05 - The importance of economic education
►27:30 - Hopes and challenges for Gen Z
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Can only speak for my profession (RN)... every year necessary costs (rent/property taxes/housing prices, insurance premiums, groceries, vehicle costs) far outpaces salary increases. We represent a big chunk of society. Really hope the markets hold up as everyone's retirements are counting on it. Thank you for the channel ✌️
This channel has been ignoring your situation for a long time because of the data they look at. But this is a great channel.
There's no question everyone's cost of living has gone up a lot, but did your income increase to offset it ? For most people I know, the answer is NO so their Quality of Life is indeed going down. That's not a perception or something being told to them, they are running out of monthly money and have to cut back on the SAME things they used to consume. They don't care about GDPs, S&Ps, Job Numbers, etc... They're experiencing it.
Exactly. The idea of the country being in recession isn't being said by people who have the perfect idea of the general definition of a recession, and who are stating that the country's economy perfectly fits that definition, but by people who are using the word to describe the perception that peoples lived experience in the economy is worse, since there is no better word for it. It is obvious that this is what people are meaning when they are invoking the word. Obviously it is not an accurate use of the word, but commentary could be done on this general perception of the worsening of lived experience, which would be a much more interesting conversation, rather than simply writing off the perception due to the inaccurate use of the term.
Also on the point of the general perception of the economy: 90% of US stocks are owned by the wealthiest 10% in the US. I might look at my holdings and feel assured by the run up, but most of the country does not have significant stock holdings.
These people will never understand this and keep throwing up their hands, or point to charts and say what is wrong with these negative people
@@theonlycaulfieldBeautifully said
Well said
@@theonlycaulfield median wages have 8x since 1970. car insurance has 12x. houses have 20x. childcare has 21x. college has 30x. health insurance has 35x.
I was one of Kyla's first ~30 YT subs and it feels like something I should be able to brag about now. So here I am, bragging.
That’s cool, OG fan!
Inflation is a regressive tax on the middle/working class. The rich can invest their money to keep pace with and beat inflation - it is the regular people who most feel the impact of rising prices and higher cost of living.
I graduated college in 1975. In three years I paid off my college debt 1/2 the cost of a state college, paid off my car loan, saved 10% for a house down payment and bought a house with a 7% mortgage and got married. I made $14,000 per year in a startup company. I could do that because at that time the state and federal government paid 75% of the cost of college. Today they pay 25% combined, the rest is on the student. Wealth inequality was much less at that time. There was a highly diverse manufacturing economy. Manufacturing jobs offered an opportunity for people to move up their status and job type. You could enter a plant with a high school diploma and wind up running the place. By 1980 the economy switched the focus to "economic efficiency" we outsourced everything we could, private equity took over, we cut taxes to encourage investment and it all went overseas. George Bush inherited a budget surplus so he cut taxes and fought a useless war all at the same time. The huge deficit was a gift to China. They could leverage their currency with our deficit. It will take 25 years to fix this because it took 40 years to screw it up. Joe Biden is on the right path. We are getting huge investments in the US right now. No one is aware because we have lived through 45 years of constant disinvestment. It is a new paradigm. He is doing this by providing money directly ---- this reduces the risk and hence the cost of capital. It draws in real private investment. Private equity raises the cost of capital substantially, destroying investment. Bidens approach is better than the traditional give a tax cut to the job creators bullshit. The job creators care nothing for the fellow Americans, they just want their efficiency.
Kyla sounds swell. I don't live in Brooklyn or SF, I'm twice as old as Michael and 3 times as old as Kyla. I just remember when life wasn't so lousy to grow up in. I went to the 40th ranked College in the US in late 60s-early 70s. In 3 summer months, I could earn 1/3+ of my tuition, my parents paid a 1/3, and I took a loan for the other 1/3. I got done school and owed $3700 at 2 1/2%. (interest rate was 5%, but school loans were available through state agencies at 2 1/2%). Today some one wants to get that same degree in Econ, they better make $16,000 during the summer. Have their parents cough up $16,000/yr, and at the end be ready for a debt of $64,000 at 5-8%. I always love listening to folks in the financial services industry. Since the entire economy started getting financialized ~1980, those nasty researchers at the Rand Corporation found that, if the more-equitable income distributions of the past had persisted, then the cumulative income of the bottom 90 percent of U.S. adults would have been $47 trillion higher by 2018. And they can't figure out why there are all those people running around the US with a red hat on and yelling at each other over the internet.. ;)
This is a story that needs to be told more often. Young people have no idea that things were different, and that their buying power has been inflated away over the past half century.
The GFC sucked. It is the only time in my life where I had to move back in with the parents because I just couldn't find work. The savings disapeared after I picked the worst time to move across the country. My Merrill Lynch credit card was my only source of funds and the house I was renting a room in was being foreclosed on due to the methsmoking owner. I would have been homeless without parents.
💯 All these whiners in the comments should try 10% unemployment with no COVID stimulus on for size.
I really enjoy Kyla’s content. Good job getting her on your show
great interview.
I think it’s perfectly reasonable for people to talk about recession because they are likely experiencing it. We live in a totally bifurcated economy. The QQQ might be making record profits but the real economy is as hollow as it’s ever been. Financial services went from 8% of the GDP in 2018 to 20% in 2021, so it’s easy to see why they all think the economy is booming.
The real economy that is still hiring very strongly, whilst also haven increased wages dramatically (wage increases highest for lowest earners)? Or the manufacturing and infrastructure spending which is at record highs?
I have been saying this for a long time. The wealthiest 20% of Americans contribute the most to GDP, which is why we will almost never have a recession. At the same time 80% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck with no real savings
Kyla does such great work. And credit to the Compound folks for putting her on the radar these last few years.
What up Josh. I became a fan, when I saw Biggie on the wall. Finally live
Ayyyyyy! - JB
Kyla is awesome! Thanks for having her on The Compound!!!!!
Thanks for watching!
Kyla’s on fire. Best wishes to her and her bright future.
Spot on
Book ordered from AMZN ✅
Morgan Housel also reads the forward in the audio book as well. Ordered a small stack for clients as well. 👍🏼
Kyla is great bridging the business to the next generation. 🇺🇸👏🏻
a great quote attributed to Colonel Robert Bateman: “Once, every village had an idiot. It took the internet to bring them all together.”
( LikeWar: The Weaponization of Social Media, Peter Singer and Emerson Brooking)
She is very intelligent fits in well with the show. You should have her on more often!
Very nice
"The people that do the craziest s××t with theyr money, are the people that seem the most likely to say that the market is rigged" Josh Brown. This really sums stock market for me. The people that i talk to that say that all the time, are the people that are trying to turn 500 into a million.....
MORE KYLA. THE PEOPLE WANT MORE KYLA.
love to hear it!
Cool young lady. In touch and informative
Appreciate the episode. First time hearing Kyla. Good stuff
Thanks for watching!
Not sure I agree that anyone near SF is freaking out about the state of SF. If you visit, you'll see it still has a ton to offer.
Followed @Kylascan on all platforms. She has horse sense. She is the antidote to all the perma bears. Thanks for introducing her to us.
Looking forward to learning more from her.
It is not my area of expertise but I just heard David Rosenburg say low unemployment is actually a hallmark of a foreseeable recession.
Rosey has been a doomer for over a decade now. Someday we’ll have a recession and he’ll claim he was right the whole time!
historically, the US usually has a recession every 6.5 years. there hasn't been one since 2008. that's 16 years. you've probably been through more than one engineered 'soft landing' since 2008.
despite the soft landing and strong market, housing, insurance (health and auto), and education/childcare expenses have inflated to critical levels for the mid to lower classes.
Josh Brown as seen on CNBC!
Because all the rewards for working have been made materially harder to achieve. Cars are bankrupting the bottom end, and even the well off can't get a house. It isn't hard to understand. People are saying, "what's the point?"
Kyla is brilliant! My fav eco blogger
"we've shifted from an internal locus of control to an external locus of control... We're looking for places and people to blame, rather than having an element of agency (fixing things for ourselves)."
!!!!!!!!!!
Smart lady
Somehow, I end up here every single day
Cost of living is rising, living standards are declining. The CPI number -- with all due respect -- is horsesh!t.
I couldn’t agree more with recession thing. Drives me nuts. The negativity proves them right for their prediction that we would be in one since Covid.
Oh wow love Kyla
Just picked up a copy, hopefully this is one I’ll hand down to my son.
Let's goooooooo
After she said options I thought a book for degens by a fellow degen
Well my electric bill up 50 percent in three years
Rent up 40 percent
Household essentials up 50 percent
Pay up 7 percent
Feelings aren’t facts
Home price/income ratio and mortgage rates aren’t feelings.
Its all about groceries; food; and gas; when people go to the grocery store and spend double; fill the tank for double; eat out for double; it doesn't make you very optimistic; and if you don't have a major stock portfolio you don't get to participate in any kind of recovery.
Inflation in what tho? The point is that its complicated and our measures dont measure up
Life feeds on life
Let the rabbits wear glasses!
I respect anyone who references the midacondrea... eventhough I can't spell it
You think affordability is bad now? Just wait another 10 to 20 years
I like how Josh thinks the upset people are only in northern California or brooklyn, 2 of the 7 spots anyone can possibly live.
No timestamps 😑
We need to bring back the fairness in broadcasting rules that were nixed under Reagan.
Recession is relative.
It is simply FALSE that pple offline are not upset about the economy. 80% of Everyone I ask is upset with the economy.
The wage growth has been in the bottom 20% of wage earners, so you have a huge swath of pple (middle and middle upper class) who have seen negligible wage growth, but prices are up solidly 30-40%. Pple express things online that they actually think, it’s not some conspiracy planted voices.
Facts
NEEDED KYLA
People can come out of the "buy gold, end the fed, the market is rigged!" Into some understanding. Personally I 100% was that person at 22 in college when I got really into Ron Paul and Peter Schiff by extension. Now I'm 35 and have been a working in brokerage over 10 years with like 6 different "series" licenses. Some people do recover from the brain rot!
I can she is doing what Americans always do which is why things just get worse
“Take personal agency and pull you up by your bootstraps”
We live in a plutocracy and it’s only getting worse
Rising wages and record high stock prices only benefit a few. Yes, engineers went from 250k to 350k. Great. You think middle of the pack employee…blue collar worker…you think their salary from 50k to 60k is the same?! Everything around them has gotten more expensive. The stock mkt at record highs makes people like Josh rich…it’s not doing diddly squat for the avg American.
Thats the nonsense I have to combat lol. Stock mkt at record highs everything is great lol.
Gimmie a break .
Birds of a feather flock together
75k out of college? I know people with masters degrees only making 70k.
I really have to compliment you guys for having Kyla on this special edition of your show and supporting her and her new book. She's a gem and will be in the mix for decades to come, I am sure.
I remember when the President of Argentina addressed the country back in early 2000, and he said, people are too negative and need to click and switch positive.
Well, a few months later, I moved to the US, and by the end of 2000, Argentina entered the biggest economic crisis in history.
Kyla, I would recommend studying history, behavioral economics, getting your car, and starting to drive beyond your neighborhood...
Also, take a look at the Leading Indicators and do some match, like exclusing Goverment Expending and Inflation from the GDP.
Oh wow, an economic crisis in Argentina? You don't say ... That country's entire modern history has been one never-ending economic crisis. In fact, let me make you some money with a prediction - in 2057 there will be an economic crisis in Argentina, you can bet your house on that. Talking about Argentina being the epitome of a disaster - if it's not a military regime, it will be an economic crisis, or both, it's one disaster after another.
Just because white was white and black was black back in 2000 aka there was an economic crisis in Argentina, that doesn't mean there will be one in the US now or in the next few months. Sure, eventually there will be a recession - that's a fact of economic reality - but there is zero correlation, let alone causation, between the economy of the US today and what may or may not have happened in that disaster zone known as Argentina back in 2000.
While there may be some indicators that show softening of the economy, most don't support the thesis of a recession. Is the economy firing on all cylinders? Most certainly no, but one needs to keep in mind this is happening in an environment of (relatively) high interest rates for a considerable amount of time. Naturally, that would have a negative effect on economic growth. The fact that the economy, under these unfavorable conditions, has remained so resilient for so long, is a testament to its overall strength and relative good health. A weak and vulnerable economy would have gotten destroyed by now.
One other factor to keep in mind - the world economies are still feeling the negative effects of the pandemic. So, when one speaks of the unfavorable economic environment, as a whole, it's not just high interest rates that need to be considered. Economies throughout the entire world are still digging themselves out of the hole created by the pandemic. No economy out there has done better, or as well, doing so than the US economy.
@milanmilanov348 There are many correlations among 2000 Argentina macroeconomics and today's US fiscal environment, such as T-bills and Bonds issuing, leverage government expending, inflation, confirmed bias, etc.
But, only time will tell...
In the meantime, my portfolio is in money market ...
Oh, by the way, take a look at KRE and CRE ...
@@MasterUniverse-yl3en No, there aren't any correlations and throwing some big words around isn't gonna create any.
Argentina is a special case of a never-ending disaster. There are deep-lying historic, societal and cultural reasons for that, most of them unique for that part of the world - not a case of bad luck by any means.
People who come from countries like Argentina have a different - overly negative and cautious - outlook on life, as a whole. Naturally, that's reflective of the rich history of hardship.
These correlations/equivalencies that you are trying to draw between 2000 Argentina and 2024 US economic reality are just the result of human nature playing mind games with you.
You are free to do with your money whatever you want but wishing trying to talk yourself into a bad economy doesn't make it one.
@milanmilanov348 well, if the US 120% debt to gdp ratio is not a correlation, I don’t know what it is...
But, keep yourself thinking that everything is ok... like many did in 2008 or in 2022 (inflation is transitory...)
I didn't, and it paid off !!!
Roger and out ...
@milanmilanov348 last note... Bloomberg Building is in default and entered into special servicer ... (among many class A buildings)
Dang Im late! 😂🥳🥳✌️✌️✌️✌️
Better late than never homeslice
Here in Realville--Flyover Country We are paying 30-40% more for smaller sizes, thinner products etc……and THIS IS SUPPOSED TO MAKE US HAPPY?
Dude-We don’t live in the Happy Hamptons! SMH.
Yup. Didn’t expect these guys (who I like) to pile onto the “it’s not happening but if it is, that’s just the vibes…” bandwagon. Disappointing.
Time for a raise. Real wages are rising faster than inflation over the last 4 years.
@@Username_CC_LOL 😂😂
@@herrenhajji facts are facts man. If all the data says economy strong, then its just you it seems
@@ddduva4440 man my partner and I doubled our income in 6 years, our friends are becoming directors and VPs making 6 figures. Must just be you.
9:50 we've rightfully shifted from an internal locus of control to external due to the realities on the ground. if you're an unsuccessful boomer, who came of age in the 60s, 70s, and 80s with all the opportunity that was available, it's entirely your fault you're a loser. nowadays, people recognize that the playing field has completely shifted and that era was an anomalous blip that's impossible to recreate without completely burning everything down and starting over. the little guy IS getting screwed, on purpose, and he's supposed to be grateful
Not everyone owns stocks. You should know that. Those not making more than a 100 grand a year are getting murdered by inflation. End of story.
We need to inflate out from under the $34.7T national debt
All these whiners in the comments. I just booked my third international vacation this year. This country is a great place to live if you can afford to leave.
I hate when you guys talk about VCs buying houses not being a big deal.
VCs DONT SELL THOSE HOUSES ONCE THEY BUY THEM. It’s just another black hole (among many) making the market less and less affordable.
VCs? What? - JB
(A) It's not VCs (you don't understand different kinds of investment funds) and (B) investors absolutely sell when market conditions warrant, why wouldn't they? Investors are selling homes in Florida right now. The people who don't sell are middle-aged buyers who hold onto property until they die.
@@TheCompoundNewsI think they missed the part where she said it's a very small percentage of the houses being sold.
The system isn’t rigged because the Nasdaq is on fire? Good one Josh.
Great interview. She seems to be very matured
Wow, she’s impressive. We need more young people like her.
Kyla is great
Millions of people feel like they're getting nowhere while all we hear about is billionaires and celebrities living the good life. Raise taxes on the top 2% to pay for childcare, elder care, and college. This isn't rocket science.
I think im in love 😍
A talented young woman and wise beyond her years. I’ve been very impressed with what she has been doing over the past few years. 👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼 #GirlDad
The example Josh Brown went with for someone who is upset with the economy is someone coming out of college making $75k… what? Not feeling bad for anyone who’s first real job hits that salary
In New York City? - JB
As he mentioned in his reply, that amount wouldn't go as far in NYC, but also most people living in the US aren't living in NYC. The reality of the current jobs market is also that job postings for both tech and finance have gone down by over 30% in 2024. New grads in computer science and finance aren't graduating into a booming jobs market, but a jobs market in which there are hundreds of applicants for entry level jobs, with new grads often applying to hundreds of positions. Kids are not graduating into a world with 75k jobs waiting for them, but are fighting for them like they used to do for the more prestigious jobs in those industries. Not only are the new grads having to fight for them, but they're also facing competition from people with years of experience due to the widespread layoffs and hiring cutbacks in these industries.
I have a decent paying remote-first hybrid job in software currently with a reasonable cost of living, but I'm currently extremely anxious of the prospect of there being layoffs at my company in this market. This is the worst market since 2008 for tech. The market has simply dried up for everyone except the most senior or exemplary candidates. My non-Big Tech international corp is able to bring on new hires with experience at Big Tech because of the hiring slowdown and non-conversions being experienced currently and despite being able to have the best pick of candidates in years, the company is still bringing on less new grads, with the smallest cohort in years, due to market uncertainty.
She didn’t want to say where she lived & Michael, of course, can’t pick up on basic cues & pushed it…I’m sure that she has reasons for not wanting the world to know where she lives.
Increasing prices is masking the recession with a positive GDP number. If our entire economy was the sale of 1 million widgets for one dollar each and the price grew to two dollars each, but it was the same 1 million widgets, GDP growth would be 100%, but the economy didn’t grow in real terms.
The GDP numbers are always real and not nominal.
Yeah GDP is inflation adjusted haha
@@ryanarmendariz8003Well, that’s my mistake. So I guess she is right that the economy is good. All of the people whose income didn’t keep up with inflation the last 3 years must be imagining things.
Everyone quit complaining, f ur feelings, inflation and COL is a conspiracy, just get a 2nd, 3rd job
We’re spending $ like we’re in a deep recession.
Lolololololol 😂
'what happened in Europe' has nothing to do with uncertainty. Quite the opposite. Recently a man got stabbed and another one killed in the name of Isl*m, again.
The fact that Sweden has become the country with the most gunviolence in Europe, within a few years.
Please don't talk about things you don't know anything about
I am reminded why I stopped watching this garbage.