Successful investing is hard work because it means disciplining your mind to do the opposite of human nature. Buying during a panic, selling during euphoria, and holding on when you are bored and just craving a little action. Investing is 5% intellect and 95% temperament.
Government policy has thrown the future under the bus for decades. The day of judgment is near. I predict an 80% drop in the stock market. Investors will abandon stocks in favor of real estate. There will be no money in banks... You must devise a strategy for survival.
We have been in a depression since 2008, the yield curve has already uninverted, global recession indicators are flashing alarm for well over a year, and absolutely nobody could pull us out of the hell coming regardless of party.
I've tried investing in the stock market several times but always got discouraged by fluctuations of stock value. I would be happy if you could advise me based on how you went about yours, as I am ready to go the passive income path.!!
ASHLEY GARNER ABBOTT a renowned figure in her line of work, i recommend researching her credentials further.... she has many years of experience and ia a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market
Excellent share! Curiously inputted Ashley Garner Abbott on the web, spotted her consulting page ranked top, and was able to schedule a call session. I've seen commentaries about advisors, but not one looks this phenomenal.
The thing with Alibaba is that it’s tied to a lot of external factors-China’s economy, regulatory pressure, and global sentiment. But you’re right, Sarah, relying too much on one stock is risky. Diversification is key.
I think the market is likely at its best now, but I still believe having a financial advisor is crucial to navigate the market and moderate your risk. Their expertise can really help you make informed decisions
I agree. I've been working with a CFA since 2020, and I return up to 15k every month, and I don't even have to lift a finger. Although I also think the reason I make this much is because I started with significant capital
Thanks for sharing your experience! I've been managing my portfolio myself, but it's not working out. Do you have any recommendations for a good investment advisor? I could really use some help
My CFA, Joseph Nick Cahill, is a renowned figure in his field. I recommend researching his name online; you'll find all his credentials and everything you need to work with a reliable professional. With many years of experience, he is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market
Thank you so much for the suggestion! I really needed it. I looked him up on Google and explored his website; he has an impressive background in investments. I've sent him an email, and I hope to hear back from him soon!
I do not have any stocks on baba but i have been following your vids for the longest time. For the amount of time and effort in your research i do hope you will be able to make life changing returns on your investment eventually. Not many holds true conviction on their determined stocks over a long period of time let alone the large drawdowns.
No trying to be a troll here. You guys are not seriously considering the importance of time in your investment. You need to define "long term": 5 / 10 / 100 years later? There are alternatives that would have already gave you more returns than this plan with uncertain horizon (even if it succeeds in the future). You also can't just look at the business numbers alone, ignoring the broader macro environment that its tied to. There just simply too much negatives homing into its business environment. E.g. trade wars from trump at least over next 4 years, mortgage crisis + poor consumerism in China, advanced chip embargo (affect cloud biz / AI?). You guys are being overly overweight for such growing risk. Maintaining an old position while hopeful for a rebound is perhaps fine. But seeing some like Master Leong still DCAing with large proportion of their portfolio in it? Really omg.
@@zuffykiller Get out at 90s in the next stimulus while you can. Find another market. Don't waste your time and forgo alternatives with higher probability of returns. Time compound returns. Even if this stock x2 in 10 years time, you would have make the same in other quality stocks / market in a much much shorter time.
I added more Baba at 84. waiting to add more Baba if it goes below 80. Follow Warren buffet's advice.. be greedy when others are fearful... I started buying Baba in recent months.. average price of my Baba portfolio is 83.60.. so I will DCA if it goes down further.. I have confidence of Baba for long term
It's enticing to consider purchasing some stocks in this bull run. I'm contemplating investing more than $300k for retirement. While the bull run can generate short-term excitement, i also need long-term investment strategy
It seems like there's potential, but caution is warranted. hence I will advice you get yourself a financial advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points>.
I agree with you. As an early investor in NVDA, AVGO, ANSS, and PLTR, my financial advisor's advice was incredibly helpful. Over the past 7 years, she has helped me find stocks that did 10x multiple times. With her help, I've grown my portfolio to over a million dollars.
Hey, I'm trying to find a certified one to boost my investments/portfolio, but it's tough online. Can I get a rec from you, since you know about this stuff?
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Eleanor Bonnici Deskin’’ for about two years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
I was eagerly waiting for your video of the last earnings. Kudos for the great analysis. Regarding the shares buyback, if remaining amt of $35 billion as of Jun'24 was repurchased back at today's price, that would have increased the valuation by 35%, which is not bad. You are doing great, btw I am also a piranha profits student.
just a reminder it took 11 years for s & p 500 to break ath back in 2000. This baba bear market may bottomed but it doesn't mean its gonna go back up immediately. It may extend for few more years😅😅
Thank you again for your update! Always look forward to these keep it up mate! Been loading up on in the money long term calls. I will continue to buy them now at these levels. I am fairly confident in two years we will see one or more tailwinds play out.
It takes a real man to admit that you didn't add or trim your BABA shares on the way up to $117 peak and now back down to low $80s. I still hold same shares but I also sold covered calls to protect the downside. When the stock reached $117, my paper loss on CC was horrible. But now I am buying back CC with some profit and not worrying too much about more downside. The beauty of selling options is to hedge against extreme stock movements. BABA is not a hot AI stock so don't expect crazy return in short time.
if you want a silver lining and don’t mind waiting many years.. they’re on course to buyback about 24% of their own stock (I think they own 13 now?) by 2027 assuming the stock stays at these levels… which is quite wild
Can you discuss the balance sheet? It seems most of the big cash pile is gone and there's still the issue of the convertible notes that make te buyback look bigger than it is.
@@fkklkomvocl1234gv the reduction in cash pile is a good thing. They are putting it to work to grow the capital intensive ai/cloud business. Few companies in the world can compete in this space. No point having a massive cash pile that can't be used to buy back shares. Better to invest in and grow revenue and profits and hope the market rewards the share price as growth comes back. Otherwise it is a dead weight. Money needs to come back to shareholders somehow
Here's my theory after 3 years of investing in China and having exited all of my positions during the stimulus: yes, a lot of Chinese companies are cheap. Yes, the strength of enterprises there are probably stronger compared to their western counterparts. But there's a big daddy government in Beijing that can eliminate sectors at will, and their policies are inconsistent with Xi in power, so the market is simply pricing in higher hurdle rates. Whatever reference multiples you use for companies ex-China don't apply to Chinese stocks
@@iwanmuzaki8049 Well, think about what Xi did in the past 5 years. Insane covid lock downs, kicked big techs in the nuts, erased private tutoring/education overnight, soured relationships with the West (not all Chinese government's fault, to be fair), and a real estate crisis that is causing ripple effects throughout the Chinese economy. How can the market not price in such uncertainties? The truth is that Chinese stocks is more driven by government policies rather than fundamentals. And when government policies are inconsistent and irrational, price will never converge to instrinsic value
@@iwanmuzaki8049 You need no years at all in the market to arrive at that conclusion. It is obviously true a priori. What's interesting is how much of a discount you should be looking for, given all of these headwinds. I think in the BABA case we are trading at or about the discount level that would warrant an investment.
Bro nothing to be proud about when the price is back to square one. After the first stimulus was announced, BABA and the lot of Chinese stocks went on a parabolic rise. Up a couple of percent daily. I felt it was too fast and too furious. Sold all my Chinese holdings including BABA from $98 to $115, averaging around $108. If it gets towards $80, I am going in again. Have to qualify : with not as large a position as before because of the risk of tariffs from Trump. China's recovery will be challenged by Trump's tariffs so investors should be cautious.
Bitcoin is on its way to breaking records, getting closer to hitting new high prices, showing that it's gaining more value and could go even higher than we've seen before. This could mean great things for people looking to invest, suggesting now might be a good time to get involved before it jumps even higher. It's an exciting moment that could change the game in general...managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.3Bitcoin to a decent 27Bitcoin....At the heart of this evolution is Francine Duguay, whose deep understanding of both cryptocurrency and traditional trading has been instrumental. Her holistic approach to investment and commitment to staying abreast of market trends make her an invaluable ally in navigating this new era in cryptocurrency investment.
Thank you for sharing your experience. She’s helped grow my reserve, despite inflation, from $87k to $246k as of today…..Her insights and daily siignals are worth following.
Francine goes deeper than just looking at surface-level trends.. she explores technical, fundamental, and sentiment analysis, offering a comprehensive perspective on the market..
Francine Duguay understanding of market indicators is impressive. She knows exactly when to enter and exit trades for maximum profit. Her siignals are top notch..
You are thinking too analytical like looking at concrete numbers, balance sheets. Look at how the other hedge funds buy shares. Also it is now like a sunken cost fallacy scenario, where you could have just exited the position (with less loss) but you are waiting to recover all
It's been dead money for 5 years. Yes, It should bounce back at some point, but the opportunity cost has been huge. I am glad I bought great winners elsewhere. Very close to selling my remaining 15% stake and move on.
Gosh , you didn’t sell when it rose to $118 ? Your mentor and boss , AK sold half , despite saying he will only sell when it reaches a reasonable valuation. What’s wrong with both of you ?
hindsight's 2020. Alibaba's worth waay more than $118 as a fair valuation in their eyes so why would they sell even 1 share? We are investing for value not spulating and daytrading.d
@@TheMightyAbs Investing for long-term value? Whats your investment horizon? 5 / 10 / 100 years? Nothing wrong with long-term but you guys need to define the time horizon and weight it with the amount you are putting in. Lets' say 5 years. I find it really hard to see how this stock will recover / x2 in 5 years.
@@jamesl2590 you may be right. at this point everyone has capitulated lost hope of recovery. I don't think there's new money coming into it but if you look at the share price history it has stayed cratered for heading towards 3 years now. People hoping for a recovery that bought in have probably cut losses or just waiting for a increase to sell. But the performance and growth of the underlying business is quite different to the share price performance. Management is trying to address that by buying back shares and issuing dividends to effectively give a 10% pa return even if the share price continues to flat. The larger the proportion of shares that gets cancelled the more pressure on the share price to go up otherwise it goes to a ridiculous multiple like 5 times earnings. I think it shouldn't take more than 10 years to play out but you have to have extreme patience. Most like to see returns along the way not flatlining for years and then going exponential towards the end.
I'm proud to say I sold almost all near the peak and I'm buying back in soon. Here is what you all miss, other financial markets don't work like the US one, no 401ks and other braind dead money. The way money works is, that banks create credit which is then used to purchase things such as assets or production. In the US, the majroity of money created is dumped into stocks and other useless bubble stuff. In China, the banks prefer lending money for real things such as buying machinery or building infrastructure. Consumer sentiment, all these things don't matter. Don't expect stocks to grow before late 2025.
Successful investing is hard work because it means disciplining your mind to do the opposite of human nature. Buying during a panic, selling during euphoria, and holding on when you are bored and just craving a little action. Investing is 5% intellect and 95% temperament.
Government policy has thrown the future under the bus for decades. The day of judgment is near. I predict an 80% drop in the stock market. Investors will abandon stocks in favor of real estate. There will be no money in banks... You must devise a strategy for survival.
We have been in a depression since 2008, the yield curve has already uninverted, global recession indicators are flashing alarm for well over a year, and absolutely nobody could pull us out of the hell coming regardless of party.
I've tried investing in the stock market several times but always got discouraged by fluctuations of stock value. I would be happy if you could advise me based on how you went about yours, as I am ready to go the passive income path.!!
ASHLEY GARNER ABBOTT a renowned figure in her line of work, i recommend researching her credentials further.... she has many years of experience and ia a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market
Excellent share! Curiously inputted Ashley Garner Abbott on the web, spotted her consulting page ranked top, and was able to schedule a call session. I've seen commentaries about advisors, but not one looks this phenomenal.
The thing with Alibaba is that it’s tied to a lot of external factors-China’s economy, regulatory pressure, and global sentiment. But you’re right, Sarah, relying too much on one stock is risky. Diversification is key.
I think the market is likely at its best now, but I still believe having a financial advisor is crucial to navigate the market and moderate your risk. Their expertise can really help you make informed decisions
I agree. I've been working with a CFA since 2020, and I return up to 15k every month, and I don't even have to lift a finger. Although I also think the reason I make this much is because I started with significant capital
Thanks for sharing your experience! I've been managing my portfolio myself, but it's not working out. Do you have any recommendations for a good investment advisor? I could really use some help
My CFA, Joseph Nick Cahill, is a renowned figure in his field. I recommend researching his name online; you'll find all his credentials and everything you need to work with a reliable professional. With many years of experience, he is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market
Thank you so much for the suggestion! I really needed it. I looked him up on Google and explored his website; he has an impressive background in investments. I've sent him an email, and I hope to hear back from him soon!
Bro pushing out the moomoo ads to recoup his baba investment
Sg finflueners make money from everywhere except the market 🤣
Always looking forward to these BABA updates. Thanks
I do not have any stocks on baba but i have been following your vids for the longest time. For the amount of time and effort in your research i do hope you will be able to make life changing returns on your investment eventually. Not many holds true conviction on their determined stocks over a long period of time let alone the large drawdowns.
bro is a consistent value investor, ignore the naysayers. Perseverance will eventually pay off, hold for the long term !
No trying to be a troll here. You guys are not seriously considering the importance of time in your investment. You need to define "long term": 5 / 10 / 100 years later? There are alternatives that would have already gave you more returns than this plan with uncertain horizon (even if it succeeds in the future). You also can't just look at the business numbers alone, ignoring the broader macro environment that its tied to. There just simply too much negatives homing into its business environment. E.g. trade wars from trump at least over next 4 years, mortgage crisis + poor consumerism in China, advanced chip embargo (affect cloud biz / AI?). You guys are being overly overweight for such growing risk. Maintaining an old position while hopeful for a rebound is perhaps fine. But seeing some like Master Leong still DCAing with large proportion of their portfolio in it? Really omg.
3 years bag holder here
average?
129.00 here
With DCA for the last 3 years my avg is low 90s
@@zuffykiller Get out at 90s in the next stimulus while you can. Find another market. Don't waste your time and forgo alternatives with higher probability of returns. Time compound returns. Even if this stock x2 in 10 years time, you would have make the same in other quality stocks / market in a much much shorter time.
Always appreciate your detailed analysis, keep this up!
I like it that they push up investing to reduce their dead cash
I added more Baba at 84. waiting to add more Baba if it goes below 80. Follow Warren buffet's advice.. be greedy when others are fearful...
I started buying Baba in recent months.. average price of my Baba portfolio is 83.60.. so I will DCA if it goes down further..
I have confidence of Baba for long term
It's enticing to consider purchasing some stocks in this bull run. I'm contemplating investing more than $300k for retirement. While the bull run can generate short-term excitement, i also need long-term investment strategy
It seems like there's potential, but caution is warranted. hence I will advice you get yourself a financial advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points>.
I agree with you. As an early investor in NVDA, AVGO, ANSS, and PLTR, my financial advisor's advice was incredibly helpful. Over the past 7 years, she has helped me find stocks that did 10x multiple times. With her help, I've grown my portfolio to over a million dollars.
Hey, I'm trying to find a certified one to boost my investments/portfolio, but it's tough online. Can I get a rec from you, since you know about this stuff?
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Eleanor Bonnici Deskin’’ for about two years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
I was eagerly waiting for your video of the last earnings. Kudos for the great analysis. Regarding the shares buyback, if remaining amt of $35 billion as of Jun'24 was repurchased back at today's price, that would have increased the valuation by 35%, which is not bad. You are doing great, btw I am also a piranha profits student.
just a reminder it took 11 years for s & p 500 to break ath back in 2000. This baba bear market may bottomed but it doesn't mean its gonna go back up immediately. It may extend for few more years😅😅
Do you expect a new stimulus package to be announced in China?
Thank you again for your update! Always look forward to these keep it up mate! Been loading up on in the money long term calls. I will continue to buy them now at these levels. I am fairly confident in two years we will see one or more tailwinds play out.
It takes a real man to admit that you didn't add or trim your BABA shares on the way up to $117 peak and now back down to low $80s. I still hold same shares but I also sold covered calls to protect the downside. When the stock reached $117, my paper loss on CC was horrible. But now I am buying back CC with some profit and not worrying too much about more downside. The beauty of selling options is to hedge against extreme stock movements. BABA is not a hot AI stock so don't expect crazy return in short time.
if you want a silver lining and don’t mind waiting many years.. they’re on course to buyback about 24% of their own stock (I think they own 13 now?) by 2027 assuming the stock stays at these levels… which is quite wild
Source?
Professor yaibaba giving his wisdom again 🤩🤩🤩
What the Tencent earnings ?
What’s your cost average?
Can you discuss the balance sheet? It seems most of the big cash pile is gone and there's still the issue of the convertible notes that make te buyback look bigger than it is.
@@fkklkomvocl1234gv the reduction in cash pile is a good thing. They are putting it to work to grow the capital intensive ai/cloud business. Few companies in the world can compete in this space. No point having a massive cash pile that can't be used to buy back shares. Better to invest in and grow revenue and profits and hope the market rewards the share price as growth comes back. Otherwise it is a dead weight. Money needs to come back to shareholders somehow
What are your thoughts on GRAB stock? You are from Singapore right? Would love to hear your analysis and on the ground assessment
Here's my theory after 3 years of investing in China and having exited all of my positions during the stimulus: yes, a lot of Chinese companies are cheap. Yes, the strength of enterprises there are probably stronger compared to their western counterparts. But there's a big daddy government in Beijing that can eliminate sectors at will, and their policies are inconsistent with Xi in power, so the market is simply pricing in higher hurdle rates. Whatever reference multiples you use for companies ex-China don't apply to Chinese stocks
3 years is still too short to assign that conclusion
@@iwanmuzaki8049 Well, think about what Xi did in the past 5 years. Insane covid lock downs, kicked big techs in the nuts, erased private tutoring/education overnight, soured relationships with the West (not all Chinese government's fault, to be fair), and a real estate crisis that is causing ripple effects throughout the Chinese economy. How can the market not price in such uncertainties? The truth is that Chinese stocks is more driven by government policies rather than fundamentals. And when government policies are inconsistent and irrational, price will never converge to instrinsic value
@@iwanmuzaki8049 You need no years at all in the market to arrive at that conclusion. It is obviously true a priori. What's interesting is how much of a discount you should be looking for, given all of these headwinds. I think in the BABA case we are trading at or about the discount level that would warrant an investment.
3 years and trying to sound like a pro. My word 😂😂
And to add: alot of large China institutions were net sellers and while retail investors were net buyers in the last stimulus.
What do you think about China Yuchai stock?
Im with you, Chi Keng
U should add, even after a positive result it continued to drop. Why ?
So this means another chance for people who missed the boat to buy BABA.
Folks who missed, should avoid and are fortunate to have avoided.
Thanks for sharing CK!
Bro nothing to be proud about when the price is back to square one. After the first stimulus was announced, BABA and the lot of Chinese stocks went on a parabolic rise. Up a couple of percent daily. I felt it was too fast and too furious. Sold all my Chinese holdings including BABA from $98 to $115, averaging around $108. If it gets towards $80, I am going in again. Have to qualify : with not as large a position as before because of the risk of tariffs from Trump. China's recovery will be challenged by Trump's tariffs so investors should be cautious.
Finally a sensible person.
Bitcoin is on its way to breaking records, getting closer to hitting new high prices, showing that it's gaining more value and could go even higher than we've seen before. This could mean great things for people looking to invest, suggesting now might be a good time to get involved before it jumps even higher. It's an exciting moment that could change the game in general...managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.3Bitcoin to a decent 27Bitcoin....At the heart of this evolution is Francine Duguay, whose deep understanding of both cryptocurrency and traditional trading has been instrumental. Her holistic approach to investment and commitment to staying abreast of market trends make her an invaluable ally in navigating this new era in cryptocurrency investment.
Thank you for sharing your experience. She’s helped grow my reserve, despite inflation, from $87k to $246k as of today…..Her insights and daily siignals are worth following.
The market has gone berserk! whether you're a newbie or a veteran trader, everyone needs a sort of coach at some point to thrive forward.
Francine goes deeper than just looking at surface-level trends.. she explores technical, fundamental, and sentiment analysis, offering a comprehensive perspective on the market..
Francine Duguay understanding of market indicators is impressive. She knows exactly when to enter and exit trades for maximum profit. Her siignals are top notch..
The clarity and precision in Francine market predictions are astounding. I'm so grateful to have found her reviews here on UA-cam as well.
You are thinking too analytical like looking at concrete numbers, balance sheets. Look at how the other hedge funds buy shares. Also it is now like a sunken cost fallacy scenario, where you could have just exited the position (with less loss) but you are waiting to recover all
Got ! the price change
I sold 85 Nov 22 cash secure puts for 20 contracts waiting for the fill.
It's been dead money for 5 years. Yes, It should bounce back at some point, but the opportunity cost has been huge.
I am glad I bought great winners elsewhere. Very close to selling my remaining 15% stake and move on.
Gosh , you didn’t sell when it rose to $118 ? Your mentor and boss , AK sold half , despite saying he will only sell when it reaches a reasonable valuation. What’s wrong with both of you ?
hindsight's 2020. Alibaba's worth waay more than $118 as a fair valuation in their eyes so why would they sell even 1 share? We are investing for value not spulating and daytrading.d
@@TheMightyAbs Investing for long-term value? Whats your investment horizon? 5 / 10 / 100 years? Nothing wrong with long-term but you guys need to define the time horizon and weight it with the amount you are putting in. Lets' say 5 years. I find it really hard to see how this stock will recover / x2 in 5 years.
@@jamesl2590 you may be right. at this point everyone has capitulated lost hope of recovery. I don't think there's new money coming into it but if you look at the share price history it has stayed cratered for heading towards 3 years now. People hoping for a recovery that bought in have probably cut losses or just waiting for a increase to sell. But the performance and growth of the underlying business is quite different to the share price performance. Management is trying to address that by buying back shares and issuing dividends to effectively give a 10% pa return even if the share price continues to flat. The larger the proportion of shares that gets cancelled the more pressure on the share price to go up otherwise it goes to a ridiculous multiple like 5 times earnings. I think it shouldn't take more than 10 years to play out but you have to have extreme patience. Most like to see returns along the way not flatlining for years and then going exponential towards the end.
Any impact expected on baba from trump winning the 🇺🇸 election?
Seems most income is Chinese based
Thanks for the video man I appreciate these
I'm proud to say I sold almost all near the peak and I'm buying back in soon.
Here is what you all miss, other financial markets don't work like the US one, no 401ks and other braind dead money.
The way money works is, that banks create credit which is then used to purchase things such as assets or production. In the US, the majroity of money created is dumped into stocks and other useless bubble stuff. In China, the banks prefer lending money for real things such as buying machinery or building infrastructure.
Consumer sentiment, all these things don't matter. Don't expect stocks to grow before late 2025.
BABA is the worst performing stock , period.
oofff back to bag holding the stock for me lol
Never buy . Never will. Chinese stock don't look at company performance.... buy pltr or NVDA in 1 month you gain more than baba gain in 4 years
..
Another 4 years holding the baba bag would mean letting go the potential gain of Pltr n nvda. Eg nvda price gain nearly 200% since a year ago.
gamestop won't stop can't stop 4.6 billion cash roaring kitty. ceo of gme hold large amount of alibaba also
baba copium channel
Crappy stock. SE shoppee is a better buy
No free money.🎉😂.
👍
Talk so much about Alibaba! Just sell lah! No use holding Chinese stocks
Indeed lol
I've sold all my BABA shares at 33% Losses...after bagholding for 3 years 6 months... its over for baba... I'm moving to u.s market - SOFI
You kena conned again.
Guys just forget about baba. Until it gets back to 120. Until then its just dead money.
my darkmode makes no sense with your white sheet
Good stuff