Ukraine War Update (20230323): Full Frontline Update
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- Опубліковано 5 тра 2024
- Here is a run through the frontlines for the Ukraine War.
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0:00 Start
1:40 Kupiansk-Kreminna
5:20 Bakhmut
13:20 Avdivka/Marinka
21:45 Vuhledar
22:15 Zap Oblast/Kherson
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No one yet on UA-cam is as comprehensive on frontlines update as you. Subscribers might be low because people generally don't want long updates. So it could be a time factor but I think they are missing out a lot. Thanks for your good work.
i agree i think of all the channels i subscribed to 12 15mins and they are done and it drives me mad thats it then till another day , not with jp though i cant actually keep up with the info the man is a machine , i dont think he sleeps , im delighted really , i never complain about long updates , if people dont like it stop watching it and turn it on later dont dictate jps time lenght choice if you follow me ,
Thanks
G’day again, 20230323 20:17 West coast Oz, soon time for bed 😃👍
Morning again :)
John is still Top 👍🤘💪👏
Hello from NY. Great show as always
Q....how is the Sun UK able to show videos on UA-cam with graphic images. Is it the disclaimer prior to start of video or do news outlets have different criteria for acceptable videos?
Corporate, innit. No secret that youtube has been chasing corporate money and the little guy is a nuisance.
Johnathan is Top 💪🙏🤘👍
brilliant coverage
It would be good if you could get in touch with someone at the ISW to give them a bit of feedback
I'm not a military person at all so I'm grateful for the insight your output brings. We've been hearing about a forthcoming Ukrainian offensive and I'm curious to know what form that might take. For example do they attempt to drive a wedge south (or west) from the existing frontline creating 2 flanks either side of the spearhead (which may be vulnerable) or do they start from one end of the occupied territory such as Hola Prystan or Oleshky and look to sweep west on a single front. Are there any military minds reading this that could offer their insight? I can see pros & cons for both approaches. Thanks in advance. Loving your work Jonathan.
Odds are it will be driving a wedge. A broad front offensive requires stronger forces, and Ukraine is still outnumbered despite heavy Russian losses.
With a local concentration of forces, Ukraine can selectively choose where they want to attack and achieve a single goal. That same overwhelming strength allows them to expand their flanks to protect their spearhead until the Russians relocate forces to counter the attack.
At that point, the success of the attack may affect whether Russians have the ability to attack the flanks. As an example, if the Ukrainians drive to the sea, Russian units to the west will not have replenished supplies to support attacking the western flank.
👍
Thank you Jonathan for you very detailed analysis on the situation on the frontline.
Left bank/right bank of river: it depends on which way it flows. LOOK DOWN STREAM to the right is the right bank. . .
The reference is a 2D map and how we look at the map. We aren't on a boat 😁
Heading towards a very well deserved 10k subs! 🧡
I’m glad those Ukrainian troops didn’t get trapped in that mini pocket on the south side of Bakhmut.
There's been a lot of talk about them using these 70 plus year old tanks. I don't think those tanks are meant for offensive use. There's been a lot of talk about the barrels of the Russian artillery pieces being worn out. Best guess is that these older tanks will be used as mobile artillery while the Russian barrels are sent out to be retooled.
That is a main role of a tank anyway, but the Russians are replacing losses, so expect the full suite of roles to be used.
Limited range, so they'll need to get closer to the front and will be picked off.
Finland has decided to transfer 3 more Leopard 2 armoured mine-clearing vehicles to Ukraine in a new aid package worth 161 million euros, The Finnish Ministry of Defense reports. The package also contains heavy weapons and munitions. (Noelreport)
Read'em and weep, we'll see what different sources claim.
Do you fear T54s as canon fother on tracks? Waves of armour? I don't expect it. Too costly in logistics, men and fuel. Maybe they will be used to defend against the upcoming counteroffensive. You know, dug in and using the canons. How much ammo would the Russians have available for that?
However, maybe they are taken apart already.
Interesting point about the communications issues being suffered by Ukraine commanders. Unfortunately improving that very substantially, and particularly hardened against Russian electronic warfare, in the broadest sense, is, we think, quite impossible at this time. It was something that Ukraine was never supposed to have, in the past, due to its long term relationship with the USSR and Russia, as well as its involvement in developing and providing military technology to the Russians for a very long time. Ukraine has only begun to prove its trustworthiness, and they are doing a very exceptional job of that, but there were big doubts right up to the witnessing of Ukraine's performance in the current war. Doubts that continued into the war itself, getting in the way of faster providence of military goods and technologies for Ukraine use. So the idea of an entire system, or integratable systems, of that size, being provided for Ukraine use, is beyond impossible. There simply is no availability and it takes years to develop and build that sort of thing. Not to mention how expensive a project of that type is. Ukraine will need it once they get through this war and become a NATO member, and I am sure they will get what they need, but right now their communications capabilities are very short of any ideal and they will remain largely that way. On a more localized level there are some things they can still do, and there are some types of equipment out there that they could obtain, but that will not solve the entire problem. There will still be problems. Lots of problems. Problems that only a complete system would finally resolve. So they will have to use their ingenuity in contrast to their knowledge of Russian technology and tactics, to do their best with what they have got and can get.
They may be resupplying
Jonathan: Politico and other sources have shown a shift in DeSantis' rhetoric toward Russia/Ukraine. I am not pro or anti-DeSantis but he is a hawk. Any non-hawk comments pander to Trump's fringe base.
Thanks. I'm have to look into this.
🦁🦁🦁🦁🦁🦁LION c LIKE No. 215
Could it be that the Russian primary strategic goal is to attrit the Ukrainian forces, along the entire front? And that they don’t mind accomplishing this goal at a (for the Russians) disadvantageous loss ratio? If so, their offensive isn’t over yet. Not if their strategy is indeed to re-enact a 1930s American B-Western with themselves in the role of the Indians.
early 2022 Putin met Jin Ping in china and invasion started. they met again few days back. Its interesting to see what happens next.
A "quiet day" on the Ukraine front is a great day for Ukraine to concentrate of destroying Russian equipment, and particularly electronic warfare, radar, artillery and rocketry assets. A quiet day makes it somewhat easier to target some things.
Kherson - what you propose, hit wider and advance is ok but i guess there are not enough shells & artillery pieces on ukrainian side to do that on such long front line. Counter battery fire needs also a lot of CB-radars. So the idea is for sure used, but will they be able to do it on the frontline, i doubt it with the current situation about ammos.
No doubt he's silenced you as a "creator." You ask inconvenient questions.
@@BridgeportIPA and again you’re helping promote the channel no wonder it’s growing thanks 🙏🙏🙏🙏
You know that if something looks like leopard tank doesn't have to be leopard tank 😁
They'll all be burned. Don't be silly.
@@BridgeportIPA there you go helping to promote the channel again you are a star 🙏🙏🙏🙏
still not a good enough reason to use the word penetrated.
FFS , i pressed "dislike " by mistake ! changed it straight away , sorry . Keep up the good work 👍
I think they know the Ukraine army is getting ready for their offensive & they are trying to save weapons and ammo for the upcoming onslaught but I don't think they stand a chance to hold the upper hand in what will be a massacre.
I believe this is there offensive, in 1916 style, using massed Info/Arty attacks to break through then commit mobile forces for deep penetration. Unfortunately for them the Infantry made gains,but not deep enough to exploit, so they're commiting their exploitation force to try to achieve the break in. This explains higher AFV losses lately, and means they are about to culminate, leaving a bunch of salients ripe for major counterattacks😁🤔
What puzzles me is how on earth is Russia gaining control by going around the cities advancing on open air. No idea how UAF allows that!
Russia gaining ground if you say so funny person
Might I suggest a visit to Lazerpig's latest on the T14 Armata. The longer this war goes on the more people realise what a paper tiger Russia is. The short summary of Lazer's opinion is, it's a hyped up piece of cr*p that can't do much of anything it's supposed to do, it uses a modified German WW2 engine which was unreliable in the Tiger and is still unreliable, the thermals are worse than you can find on some publicly available drones, it has minimal redundancy in it's systems, it can easily be blinded by the Bradley's autocannon and it is heavily dependent on Western parts, not even latest gen Western parts. The active protection sensor systems are worth not a lot and it's protection relies on the crew spotting incoming. Basically, in many respects the Russian's have suffered a brain drain and their ability to innovate, or even build a decent engine, is minimal. According to Lazer, Putin's modernisation of the Russian military was designed partly to reduce it's threat to himself. He cut down training bases from about 60 to a dozen or so. The system is so corrupt that most projects don't deliver, partly because nobody ever imagined Putin going mental and starting a war. The draw down of NATO and the implication of Russian inadequacy that the military never did worry about a threat from NATO really shows how hollow Putin's excuses are.
What a FAB video. Thanks!
Emperor Xi Jinping paid a royal visit to Pu Tin, regional governor of the northern Chinese province of Ruxia. (Garry Kasparov)
love that one :)
The offensive talk is making me sleepy. There's claims Ukraine has 30-50k troops in and around Chasiv Yar getting ready for an offensive, there's also claims they have ~40k troops around Orikhiv getting ready for an offensive. Then there's the russians (ukrainian claims) that they have gathered hundreds of thousands of troops and hundreds of helicopters and aircrafts getting ready for a new offensive.
Yet all we have seen are pretty much localized offensives. Pro-ukrainians are also now saying that the spring offensive will be a summer offensive, while we don't hear shit about the russian large scale offensive anymore. I'm starting to think both sides are just spewing shit and what is happening now is pretty much all there is until one breaks.
Well there's definitely an awful lot of footage of big manoeuvres being practised in Germany with quite a lot of kit...
Vodyane - mark as controled a road where each vehicle is hammered is 'bizarre'... More like a grey zone for me :)
Notice how he always skips any real conflict locus? They'll all fall. You know they will.
Thank you again for helping promote this channel 🙏🙏🙏
You deleted your last comment never mind this one will help promote this on the UA-cam algorithm and me talking to you help to so win win🙏🙏🙏🙏
russian military satellites seems to have less resolution than western civilian ones as i could read. But photos of civilian western satellites are not available in real time outside western countries.
...except to Ukraine.
@@sirsmeal3192 yes indeed :)
@@sirsmeal3192 and also some military ones i guess ...
Cannot understand the english speak of this person and haven't subtitles option
Th subtitles are automatically generated by UA-cam but sometimes it takes a little time for them to do.
They also don't kick in right away, so you may want to back up to catch the translation.
have you seen the latest video on times radios youtube john? 'Ukraine should surrender' interviewing british weirdos
Gah, not sure I would want to...
@ATP Geopolitics ye total waste of time but its literally just a bunch of fringe weirdo's
My suspicion, based on the general patern of activity by Ukraine the last few weeks, is they are preparing the ground on the left bank of the Dinpro for a major push to the mouth of Crimean peninsula. Lot of work seems to be directed towards disrupting rail travel, targeting artillery, clearing those islands in the river, hitting logistics in crimea, etc. It is the also the tail end of russian supply routes, while what supplies and troops they have are going to Bakmut, and fights in the north east of the lines. Taking that territory would solve a lot of problems for Ukraine, with least amount of resistance; while forcing russia to either disengage from northern battles and send reinforcements to the area or simply let that line collapse. If they try to rotate to defend it, the northern lines would likly collapse, or at least take the pressure off those fights. 🤔
An attack in the south strongly favors NATO weaponry with TOW ranges in the miles being able to see and hit Russian forces in the flat, bare plains. A Ukrainian attack in the south should resemble a hot knife ggrough butter.
I wonder if Ukraine have any airborne or beach landing capability. A simultaneous attack on the Kinburn and across the Dnipro might be interesting.
its quiet because of chinas visit , putin will never show agression while xi was around hes too cute for that ,it will probably ramp up when hes gone back home today onwards maybe
We have yet to see Ukraine competency in terms of cutting through Russian lines and at some point, going forward, we need to see that happening. For instance, in the Bakhmut scenario Russians continue to have the advantage of Opytne and Klishchiivka. (Opytne near Bakhmut. There are so many of them one needs to be more specific.) That is most unfortunate for Ukraine, and lucky for the Russians. It prevents significant potential degradation of the Russian capabilities in the Bakhmut area. Simply defending Bakhmut, and inflicting losses on the primarily Wagner attackers, is not enough. It can never be enough, strategically or tactically. It takes more than that or the stranglehold that the Russians enjoy, despite their losses, continues and there is no real way to sever the noose before it strangles Ukraine's forces in that area completely. You cannot win there by simply feeding, through a narrow geographical tube, into the center of Bakhmut. That brings about a lot of attrition, as we well know, as to getting in and out of the nearly "cauldron" situation. So there has to be a point where Ukraine seizes the initiative, or Bakhmut would still, eventually, become an Alamo sort of situation. While we have been waiting to see what Ukraine does, it appears the time is definitely growing shorter and shorter, for seeing any effective initiative, and without taking the initiative the results, despite being very prolonged, become very "destined" with the Russians determining Ukraine destiny. At least in that specific instance.
Lol Putin sold out and consolidated all good equipment to surround himself for his own protection 😂
All hail THE LEGEND! 🫡 Mornin folks 🙂 Denser vs. more dense. In this case, we use the words "more" or "less" before the adverb in the comparative form. The adverb form of "dense" is "densely," which now has two syllables since we added -ly. This means it can take "more" in the comparative or "most" in the superlative. Is cut 'n' paste cheatin'? 😁
Not cheating...
@@sirsmeal3192 Thanx. 🙂
Thanks