A 2021 All Australian Team Picked By Stats
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- Опубліковано 10 вер 2021
- For a slightly different take on the yearly AFL All Australian team, we adopted an entirely stats based approach to select the team.
www.afl.com.au/stats/stats-pro#/
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Created by Andreas and Zachary Baruhas
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Chill Day by Lakey Inspired
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Who were you happy to see included in the side?
ridley. had a great year
I assume you mean this side so crisp
Nic nat is the best Ruckman in the game I dont care if max gawn kicked 5 in a prelim
ridley, underrated
you snubbed sam draper. best ruck in the league rn
The most anticipated footy night of the year
@MU FClow scoring matches, flopping, bad fans and corrupt organisations… I think I’m fine thanks.
Great to see Tom Papley in this side. He was the one people were saying should not have been in the team, but stats don't lie people. Look at how many times he was mentioned in this video for proof of his credentials
crisp was robbed not even getting in the 40 man, so good to see him in this
I always say how he never makes mistakes and is the most underrated player in the AFL and this video proved my point
@@Usenoname21 what about the failed bounce last year?
@@ContestRate very specific
@@ContestRate Giv that you my man?
@@codeword9397 Yes it’s me.
Hey man, an idea for improvement for next year would be to weight certain categories, so that for example goals will be more important than other categories for a half forward. Not sure how this would be practically approached but could be useful in solving a cripps-like problem.
Yep, that's definitely something we're gonna workshop for next year
@@FootyA2Z maybe some compulsory categories. Like forwards needing to have goals and mids with disposals and contested possessions etc
@@el-violador yeah I agree, and something like hit outs to advantage for rucks, spoils for key defenders, goals for all forwards, metres gained for wings, clearances for rovers, defensive half pressure or tackles for non-key defenders etc. Could be a good way to also split some of the dual roles, meaning you can get inside and outside mids by having the same things but requiring one with clearances and one with handballs (unless there's a star recorded that excludes contested marks from contested posessions). Could also help with the bench, you can take the lowest score that isn't an exact same player in terms of best category scores as existing positions. So you should get a more dynamic team
The fact that crisp didn’t make the AA side is a daylight robbery
Nah, i reckon the backlines pretty good
it's interesting how melbourne conceded the least points all season but didn't have any all australian defenders.
shows how tight they are and how well they work together as a unit.
edit: not an attack on the selection system, just an interesting observation
Yeah that's a really good point - they don't stand out individually because they're strength is in how well they work as a team.
We mentioned that briefly at the end of last years video too when Richmond won the GF but no tigers players made this team, so finding ways to incorporate some sort of team success into the stats could be an interesting challenge to work on.
Normally the sign of a good team, still remember Richmond players never getting recognition in some of their flag years but it just goes to show it’s a cohesive unit. Midfield seems to show individual accomplishments more so however.
Agreed, love the video and offers a good alternative. May and lever defs deserved all Australian, interesting to see they don’t get in on stats
So Jack Crisp statistically, is not only the best defender in the comp, but the best player. As a Pies supporter, I approve. All hail King Crisp.
Honestly this is closer to being correct than the decision to not even have him in the squad of 40 was. Ridiculously underrated for his consistency, underlined by the fact he's played 163 consecutive games without missing.
He was listed as a defender which is why his stats are thrown out of whack
@@Chuckakhan he played as a defender for half the season tho and was bloody good down there.
if >50% CBAs is playing mid then he played mid 8/22 games this season.
Great to see Ridley getting some recognition
Vindication for me as a freo fan seeing Darcy get a spot
I’m surprised Walsh didn’t make it into the stats to see who makes the position
I find it so interesting to see how the stats play out. Also kudos for your passion to improve upon last year
onwards and upwards!
Great video lads. Really enjoy the content!
Feel like this is what the AFL has been missing, a strong online presence. Like the other major sporting codes in the world
Include a 'tribunal appearance' stat when picking the leadership next year :P.
Cool video
Green was cap pretty much all year for the giants so this is shit comment.
Great Vid lads. Lots of great insight, using stats, instead of bias
Great video guys! Such an interesting perspective
Very enjoyable. Well done.
Jeez, I like the Paul Seedsman in there, very underrated player.
Great team lads! Love these videos
Been looking forward to this one!
Never seen your content before, but that was fun, new sub.
This is an elite video far out, good stuff
Finally wingmen recognition 👌 altho no may/Lever on defence means something's a little off there imo. Maybe different stats or weighting. Great video anyhow!!
Okay dees supporter
May and lever aren’t good, they just have an amazing mid meaning the ball never has any pressure coming down, put those two on Carlton and they’d not be even close to AA
@@Hello-kc7on I needed a good laugh today, cheers 😂
@@aussiegodx8629 wow the first dees supporter to not mention Clayton Oliver !! Man that must have been tough on you …. Uuuum how did Steven May perform when he was at the suns ?!? Average at best stop riding the D and the hype train …
@@Hello-kc7on bruh have you even watched a game?
I love the statistical all Australian team. AFL should take notice
(not make theirs the same, but use this type of format to get a list of best players for the position rather than name 7-8 midfielders per team)
love the work on this, always interesting to see what the team looks like with out narative or the eye test. would be interesting to see what it would look like if you used the stats on a per game basis rather then totals and see what players that missed games because of injury had impressive years.
yeah, we've often wanted to use averages, the problem is you can't filter the statspro by games played. so the standings get filled by people who played only a handful of games but performed statistically well enough to get into the high averages
Love these stats and ideas. All suit very well. Not just plonking midfielders everywhere
Great vid mate
This is an elite video
I love these so much
Awesome fellas, well done! Bont on the pine was a bit rough and Toby as vice captain was ahhhhh contentious but otherwise very good! Any thoughts for how to measure coaches?
This is pretty spot on.
Great video! Love the approach.
Here's another idea for the scoring: use quartile/quintile/deciles etc rather than rank number...
Coming second in a category would score same a first (could still use pure rank for ties); gives "all rounders" a better shot if they're consistently high but not at the peaks; and less punitive for players with more competition for spots (i.e. last out of 100 currently scores 100 and last out of 20 scores 20, using quartiles they'd both score 4 for coming last)
Tom Stewart very stiff to miss out. Don't know how you'd tweak it to edge him in. Obviously stats aren't everything and these videos help demonstrate that.
Great vid as always.
Can't wait to see the 2022 team
Great job! Yes you want to tweak it a little bit but it’s bloody good to see a functioning forward line and and wings rather than 5 key forwards and 3 midfielders all crammed into the forward line 😂
Great vid
Great video
This is a beast series
The way this system works is really interesting to me, because here, whilst at the time of publishing you didn't know that Melbourne were going to be Premiers, three 2021 premiership players made this side, whilst in the year prior, zero 2020 premiership players made the team according to the stats. Sometimes it just goes to show that a champion team will always win out against a team of champions.
Jake Lloyd!! Finally he's gets some recognition thank you!! He's got to be one of the most disrespected and criminally underrated players in the league over the past few seasons.
Loved the process and metrics used. For next year It would be interesting to include who is coaching the team. What data points would you use to find this out I wonder?
Feels like there’s no clear way to pick the best coach
Most wins?
Biggest climb up the ladder since last year?
Best result compared to average predicted ladder position of their team in the pre-season from 10 most reputable sources?
Maybe, a coaches consistency over several seasons HAS to be considered
Delighted and surprised to see Isaac Smith - he is easy to overlook but definitely had an AA season for mine based on performance
God forbid Jack Crisp is allowed anywhere near a Captain's armband IRL
Great video though A2Z, keep it up!
Loved the video. Maybe you could have a locked stat, where even if it is your worst it must be included. For example, it is important for a small forward to be kicking goals, so it must be included. Then falling back onto the next worst stat being removed.
I loved the idea of this and how it works. This dives in stats and gives recognition to goes to fly under the radar, like Jamie Cripps, because their name is a household name like Dusty, or they don’t play for a big club. This also recognises players you play their role really well.
I did this based on last years sequence
This is the team
FB: Jack Ziebell, Liam Jones, Harris Andrews
HB: Jack Crisp, Aliir Aliir, Daniel Rich
C: Zach Merrett, Rory Laird, Jack Macrae
HF: Tom Papley, Harry McKay, Christian Petracca
FF: Alex Neal-Bullen, Tom Hawkins, Kysaiah Pickett
Foll: Max Gawn , Jack Steele, Marcus Bontempelli
Int: Nick Naitanui, Isaac Cumming, Paul Seedsman, Clayton Oliver
forgot to do the leadership
Go Crispy!!! All Australian captain!!
I like that Liam Baker got listed as top 5 back pocket, even though he played midfield and forward this year as well, an underrated player
Pretty good. I think the problem you mentioned with Stewart (also Lever, tbf) is also a problem with all the other positions - you just have a more homogenous group of players in the midfield for example, so it doesn't show up as a big problem. You just can't pidgeon hole a role or position into five stats. There will always be players who play it differently, and sometime it's the points of difference that make them standout. Like Polly Farmer for example. Or Gaz Snr.
It's not a criticism, though. Well done.
Great video again this year!
Interesting that May and Lever didn’t get in by the stats, I wonder if there is a tweak needed in assessing the defensive attributes. As worse teams will by definition have to defend more and will likely rack up more stats in that area. Hard to determine whether or not that is a true reflection of the best defenders.
Thats because they play such a good team game where as say steele because saints are shit steele basically plays solo
Hey, interesting list. My only main issue is Tom Hawkins (apart from other comments). He is placed at centre half forward but doesn't really play that role as a half forward that links to full forward. He traditionally plays out of the square (acknowledging that all players run up and down the ground for team defence). Is the illegibility for CHF correct?
Hmmm great Video thank you. Only problamtic point, and more a quibble is that picking a captain on stats completly igmores leadership capability and personality displayed on field to inspire.
I can’t believe it’s been a full year and a second naming of Jake Lloyd in the A2Z AA side and I’m still not over the fact that Caleb Daniel edged him out.
Wheres Walshy! but this is awesome the amount of effort you put into this shows!
sucks for parish and stringer who killed it
Great effort and most of these selections pass the sniff test.
I agree a weighting system may be appropriate to alleviate anomalies such as the Cripps selection.
The heat maps could also be used as a resource to determine a player's true position e.g. they must meet a certain threshold of time in the given position to be eligible for selection.
The captaincy should not be awarded on the basis of lowest score, but rather the lowest scoring captain or player within their club's leadership group.
Good to see an actual team was picked
This was fucking sick man.
I'd look to separate key forwards and key backs into full forward/centre half forward and full back/centre half back. Potentially via the addition of inside 50s and rebound from 50 respectively.
Not sure if the stats are available for it, but I'd also consider the time spent in each position. For example where a player spends half the season in the midfield and half in defence stats relating to disposals will be higher than most defenders.
how do you account for players that are the best on their team but not necessarily good compared to players from other teams? Like if they're the only person worth delivering to up forward, they're gonna get a fair few inside 50s, while their team-mates have few.
No Tom Stewart!! I enjoyed seeing your explanation about his unclear position on the field, explaining why he wasn't on the stats team. Did him justice.
Great video maybe next year use average or median for the point to make it more fair
It might also be worth adding in some percentage of the 5th or worst stat to even things further - a player who is 40th in their worst stat might be given 4 points for example.
Nick haynes is the best defender I'd seen all year. Surprised he didn't make a showing
because his stats weren’t as good as the others
@@tooms8053 good contribution
As a dogs fan I might be biased but Bontempelli is by far the best player in the comp. probably best shows his impact by polling 2nd and 3rd in the Attacking midfielder and Wing positions respectively. Whilst at the same time being solid at contested ball. The way he uses his disposals is also a massive strength. Each disposal has purpose and plan to it unlike some players that accumulate and don’t actually damage.
Crisp was robbed this year and no one can change my mind
was Rory Laird close to any position, I thought statistically he was really strong, same as keays?
Loved the video, Crisp champion, lever having one of the all time great years tho hmm...
I wonder if you could have all the data for previous years and then do some modelling to try get the closest match each year and then use it to predict the team before the results come out.
oh nice
Maybe to improve the 5 stat system you could highlight a specific stat for each position as the most important one (for example goals for forwards), similar to how ur atar is calculated taking English first and then ur next best subjects regardless if ur good in English or not
still waiting for a 2022 version of this. Whats going on the all Australian team has passed and still nothing
As you were describing the attacking forward role I was there thinking, could Seedsman get in on some of his stats. Was disappointed not to see him in the top 5 for that position. But to then get him on in the wing? Ill take that as a win
btw - Out of curiosity, where did Brodie Smith fall for Rebounding defender? I thought he would've been close on a statistical outlook.
Also - Idea. Go based off of averages, but set a minimum game amount. - Would Taylor Walker have made it if we went down this path??
You know your team is stacked when you have the bont on the bench 😂
Very cool idea and great work, I appreciate the time and effort.
Obviously you are limited to what stats are on offer.
For instance, I'm not sure if hard ball gets is a stat but contested mid should be pretty much 100% this stat and no need for 5 stats. As someone else mentioned, some kind of weighting system, but I think the 5 stats thing is complicating things that can be simplified.
Such as FF, really it's 2 stats and all other stats are irrelevant, goals and contested marks. Maybe some positions need 5, 6 or 7 stats, such as a winger, also wingers need goals as a measurement more than bounces, Seedsman is an ok winger, but def not ahead of Jack Macrae, who was easily the best winger of 2021, I'm not even a dogs fan and it's clear as day for me, so, that would solve silly inclusions, more complex roles need more stats and vice versa.
I am surprised that goals against and possessions against aren't used in defence. Also what about a place on the bench for the best tagger?
Next year there should be a locked stat for each key position. For a forward the key stat would be goals. So that stat no matter how bad the score is would be included. It would be the same for each position, where there is one stat that cannot be discounted.
I think when it comes to working out captiancy, start with best stats like you do here, but have that number next as one of your 4 and sit it next to frees against, 50's against and suspensions? idk
Can someone explain how Macrae was selected , when in stats category he was 5th, behind Parish and Zorko (and Petracca and Bont)?
Petracca was selected at rover, then he won again at HF. His best score at HF meant he moved there. Macrae was then selected back in the middle based on his rover score, not his HF score to fill the empty space
@@FootyA2Z ok. but I would suggest you have a problem with the logic of the (midfield) players scoring so well at multiple positions. I don't know that the output of the super gun guys ie Petracca could equate to "winning three positions". I would protest that while elite, they are not that statistically superior. Thanks for the team.
Please do a review for each teams season
For defenders I would say if possible a stat where it could measure goal stopping actions
Not sure how others would feel, but for duplicate players next year, i reckon you get a better side if you choose the player in position where second has the worst score. For example if player A is 1st in forward flank (with 4 points) and small forward (5 points), you ignore his score and go to 2nd rank in both player B on flank with 7 points and player C on small forward with 8 points. I would argue you pick B and then A in the small forward even though not his best score and B on the flank.
Yeah, don't mind this at all. In case you wondering this would have meant Pap at HFF, Cameron in the Pocket and Kosi Pickett on the bench
i just reckon whatever the lowest possible points combination is.
@@lukeparisot7252 i did think about that as well, but one problem i saw was some positions would just have different scales because of the different stats, as the 5th small forward Greene had the same number of points as 1st flanker Papley. But yeah every system has it problems and this is probably a pretty small one
What's a postion?
It's actually a great team but who do they play? Ireland? New Zealand? USA?
Could you look to normalise for opportunity? IE forwards on teams with more inside 50s are more likely to have higher stats in all categories. Whereas there could be a fantastic forward on a poor team, who outperforms these forwards on a ‘per opportunity’ basis.
The inverse could be looked at for defenders.
Good work, but you should have evaluated CHF differently to FF by including inside 50 as well.
Still waiting for the 2022 team :(
Were it not for Cripps at Half Forward and Gawn not getting the "C" (not 100% comfortable with Toby Greene as VC over Bontempelli either) its actually pretty darn good. Its pretty hard to argue with. Even Smith over Ed Langdon or Hugh McCluggage I absolutely get.
Good to see Weitering and Andrews recognised, and FINALLY RECOGNITION FOR WINGMEN!!, also Charlie Cameron had a pretty stellar year as well so its nice he was named albeit on the bench.
Would love to still have Seedsman running around for Crows. Every time I thunk the AFL have gone to far with suspending people for careless tackles and bumps I remind myself that this champion player has been missing so many games and forced to retire.
For Key Forward why not something like Goal kicking accuracy or Goals per game average? Buddy averaged more games than Hawkins, better goal kicking accuracy, and a better ratio of Frees For/Against than Hawkins.
Jack Steele finally starting on the fucking field.
Why was Allir in the key back rankings? He isn't a key back
Crisp is a jet ✈️
Better than the actual AFL ALL AUS team. Still some tweaking and this should be used in future. Then no one can complain. Only negative is it’s without the Brownlow winner
Maybe to combat the forward line issue you make it so that goals has to be counted even if it’s the worst of the five.
Weitering and Andrews 🤩
SEEEEEDDDD
how are you chosing the correct stats, when the brownlow medalist doesnt even make it in the team.
Your model didn't include a defender from the best defensive team in the competition. Strange! Perhaps Melbourne's defence was not due to individual players. Who should have won the Grand Final statistically? North Melbourne?
Good Vid its interesting, but I guess stats are not everything, and individual performances in terms of impacted on a game is much much more imported then stats alone, i mean you have bont on the bench and mcree only get in because petracca cant play two spots lol, and the trouble with stats alone is it doesn't account for game styles. to refer to the dogs (again ) they have a lot of shot handballs shot kicks. not one player as a lot of meter gained. it a chain, but all in all its a good side. I thing there always room for what the eye can see not just stats alone
Bit confused as to how Weitering was 1 for Spoils yet Dougal Howard had the most for the year
average