Frank Luntz and Allan Lichtman talk swing-state polls and predictions
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- Опубліковано 13 жов 2024
- Donald Trump is still in the 2024 race despite his terrible debate performance because Kamala Harris has been unable to close the deal with undecided voters.
I joined Chris Cumo on NewsNation alongside the legendary Allan Lichtman to talk more.
Isn’t it sad that people are voting for Kamala just because they hate Trump?
@@rosskarsk51823 No one hates him, we just know that he's the most disgraceful, incompetent, fraudulent, and dangerous former president to ever hold office. That's not hate, we're just worried about how much more damage he could do to ourcountry if he is reelected.
Isn't it sad that anyone would want more of covid 45 who handed Biden a destroyed economy after Obama gave trump a great economy
More than hate. He is incompetent. It is sad that fantasyland candidate is trying to be in charge.
is it sad to eat pizza hut if the alternative is red baron?
@@mst3kpimp it's sad trump destroyed Obama's economy and Biden needed to fix it
It's true during surveys, a lot of people would hide their real answer, but when it's voting day, they will vote for whom they have always intended.
I don't believe that is happening as much in this particular election. And one of the reasons why is that people don't take kindly to being told they are NOT seeing what they ARE seeing...
True. Trump 2024 🇺🇸
@@HankSemoreButzwrong
@@lms2932 you’ll see I’m right 😉
@@HankSemoreButz 🙄
“They’re eating the dawgs!” 😅
Haha.. Lol ... Trump is going to Win easy ...the media knows it ...and he was never down ... the fake media made it all up....
a wonderful meaningless post
changed everything....the most utterly weird thing ever said in ANY presidential debate, and I remember Kennedy/Nixon...
@@BillOptionalwhat did it change? No one even cares anymore... it was funny for a few days, but now?
😆 time for the OLD man TRUMP too go senile old BASTARD in 2 yrs trump will not know were he's at the way he talks
Allan Litchman said that Biden was totally fine and that he should stay in the race. When cuomo pushed back by saying he’s suffering from mental decline he said “you don’t know that, that is not true” he’s the only person in America that thinks that.
Harris and tens of millions of other partisans also had their heads in the sand when it came to his dementia
Biden was doing fine. With age he slow down a lot. Trump should be removed by the GOP. Its like watching elder abuse. In Detroit all he did was fart. You could hear it. 😂😂
We have no idea whether Chump would have actually beaten Biden.
We cannot know whether Lichtman was correct or not. We do know that he has not been wrong before.
This guy it’s an idiot and totally bias if you have a couple of minutes watch his prediction with Cuomo from 3 months ago. He’s the only one on America that think Biden is “quick on his feet” this idiot posted some “breaking news” that he received news from the Biden campaign that Biden was staying in the race and a couple of hours later Biden dropped out lol
If Lichtman is right, why Kamala’s campaign is worried?
They’d be foolish not too. trump campaign is nervous too. It’s just human nature.
@@stanmoroncini8825 exactly!!!
Trump campaign is also nervous don't be cheated.......and it's normal and human to be worried and nervous
Polls are nonsense because they poll from "LIKELY VOTERS" meaning voters who voted in 2020, 2016,etc. Well, The october surprise, Chris, is the WAVE of NEW voters, Woman, Young, america saving new voters who want trump gone, etc. That's why on election day, there will be a tsunami wave of Harris votes and trump will lose by a landslide ON ELECTION DAY
In 2016 he predicted Trump would win the popular vote but he barely won via the electoral college and lost the pop vote. . In 2020 he correctly predicted that Biden would win the popular vote and the electoral college and Biden won the popular vote as expected but barely won the EC.
That's one of the things that I like about Allan: he sticks to his guns. Once the prediction has been made, he does NOT deviate from it. CONSTANCY my friends! It's a word seldom employed; but an attribute always appreciated.
This is false....he said Biden was a lock to win.
The truth is she will win IF all her supporters show up to vote. Remember, there are more Democratic leaning voters than Trump supporters. Also, don't discount all of the Republicans who don't want Trump back in the White house.
His keys make sense BUT he has made his final predictions at wildly different times ranging from 18 months before an election to 2 months.
Allan own TDS has him violating his 13 keys. By his own theory Harris lost the momentous was installed. His keys don’t take into account a situation where a candidate is installed and replaced. His keys don’t take into account assignation attempts which wildly creates variance. Cumo (who is an idiot) does mention 2000 or 2004 where Allan prediction was wrong and Bush won. He predicted Gore and then blamed the ballots as the issue which was a variance to his 13 keys. Right now he has major variance with an installed candidate and assignation attempts. His theory is out the window here
Yeah , but it’s foolish . He was wrong I think in 2000. Looking at his own keys , Trump should win, seems he interprets his own keys in an odd manner because just looking at them Trump should win . I think this time he is fueled more by hope than logic
I like Lichtman’s model, I just don’t agree with his answers to his model’s questions. And I don’t think voters do either.
Lichtman’s model was predicating a Biden win in 24 too.
Who knows. With Biden out we will never know.
Because he’s the incumbent. His keys are based on the White House & the current president. The Democrats lost a key when Biden pulled out. Kamala is still part of the incumbency being VP so all other keys that were for the White House stayed blue. Not difficult to understand really.
Yeah I think he's wrong. This economy sucks. Inflation is killing people and the dems got us
@@dman7668 There was no way Biden was going to win with the poll numbers he was getting.
It’s a win win for Litchman. If he’s right, he sells millions of books. If he’s wrong, he sells millions of door stoppers…
He's never been wrong.
@@vincesmith2499 He predicted Trump would win the popular vote in 2016.
@@vincesmith2499NEVER??? 😂😂😂
@@philipm5043no he didn’t. The keys don’t prefect popular vote. Stop lying.
Wrong in 2000 😂😂
I respect Lichtman’s work, but our elections are predictable enough that people can choose the winner based on momentum at various points. In fact most have been easy to predict.
Did you pick 2016? The polls and momentum were all for Clinton right up to Election Day.
But Lichtman has gotten the tough one's right and made the pollsters and the pundits look silly more than once.
Polls are nonsense because they poll from "LIKELY VOTERS" meaning voters who voted in 2020, 2016,etc. Well, The october surprise, Chris, is the WAVE of NEW voters, Woman, Young, america saving new voters who want trump gone, etc. That's why on election day, there will be a tsunami wave of Harris votes and trump will lose by a landslide ON ELECTION DAY
NO ONE PICKED TRUMP IN 2016 but him. I'm surprised he was accurate.
@@marvinsykes Michael Moore did. He's predicting Harris this year too, so hopefully my worries are unfounded. But after 2016 I will never again overestimate Americans
Looks like lichtman might be wrong this time. His keys are great its just that economy is crap for too many to give harris that key and foreign policy has been a disaster as in total fail, so that key should be off as well. In the foriegn wars key I think.
Lichtman should have refused to make a pick after Democrats forced Joe Biden to drop out after he had already won the nomination. It's never happened before in presidential politics, and his model does not take into account such a bizarre turn of events so late in the campaign.
The economy is not crap and have been very good. Which one of his keys picked up. Biden built up NATO that Trump had weaken and tried to destroy. That with help to Ukraine stopped Russia from concurring it. That was another of the professors keys. A foreign policy victory. Do you know what gaslighting is ?
The US economy is the strongest its EVER been...stop the lies
Lichtman is a pseudo-scientist, no reason to take him seriously. He doesn't know the difference between correlation and causality and it's not at all clear the he's basing his predictions on what he says he is basing them on. If his method was a real scientific method, it would be independent of its 'discoverer'. I don't think we need to consult Mr. Fahrneheit/Celsius every time we look at the thermometer, do we? That's because thermometer is an actual thing, working on established principles, rather than snake oil.
I believe God chose Trump for this time and no key will change that and things are getting over turned May God get all the glory for this. Trump is a fighter and here we go 2016 only higher
It is amazing how much Frank has changed. It is like he has had an epiphany! Much nicer guy. I am happy for him.
tough times will do that to a man
I picked Villanova to beat Georgetown in the NCAA championship.
I was laughed at when I said Buster Douglas had a chance.
Can I be on tv now ?
I knew when tyson was knocked down twice in sparring for Douglas, he wasn't prepared mentally or physically, then when I heard he was fornicating with japanese woman before the fight. of course he would lose to a big strong good fundamental boxer in perfect shape and fighting for his dead mom.
BTW, let me educate you on polling. Polls are nonsense because they poll from "LIKELY VOTERS" meaning voters who voted in 2020, 2016,etc. Well, The october surprise, is the WAVE of NEW voters, Woman, Young, america saving new voters who want trump gone, etc. That's why on election day, there will be a tsunami wave of Harris votes that weren't even factored in on the polls and trump will lose by a landslide ON ELECTION DAY
You're on UA-cam. Congrats.
Battle of the hairpieces !
You must be referring to Trump and his minion
@@HolisticTraumaTherapy do better nerd
@@HolisticTraumaTherapyquiet wine aunt
That's Alan's real hair..
@@yvonnezimmerman1570😂 Yeah sure 😂
I am with Luntz -Trump has the definite advantage so far
trump is going to lose.
Nope. He's finished.
Trump has the advantage? Lmao already coping
no advantage , women will pull this off.
LMAO, is that code word for Trump losing?
Kamala lost 7 swing states
She hasn't lost squat. The election is 3-1/2 weeks away.
@@DavianSinnerthis channel is wrong😂😂😂😂
You are a liar like trump
@@DavianSinner haha ..... even left pollsters have her even......she needs to be way ahead to have a chance.....keep coping dude
WHAT?
The fact Frank doesn’t make a pick is pretty much saying, I don’t want to say that Trump will win big
or it could just be he knows that polls are bullshit. I like how you project your own views onto democratic voters 😂 no democrat in their right mind will vote for the Epstein-loving Trump
HUH, what?
Lol okay bro
Polls are nonsense because they poll from "LIKELY VOTERS" meaning voters who voted in 2020, 2016,etc. Well, The october surprise, Chris, is the WAVE of NEW voters, Woman, Young, america saving new voters who want trump gone, etc. That's why on election day, there will be a tsunami wave of Harris votes and trump will lose by a landslide ON ELECTION DAY
100% correct - Frank gave away his disdain for Trump long ago and missed the 2016 call for Trump to win by HUGE margins!
Early voting hard numbers are siding with Allan Lichtman, added to his point @5:36 with the outcome in 2022, 2023, and 2024.
Early voting always sides with Democrats.
@@Icipher4 Which is why convincing voters to vote early is a good tactic and good strategy. Lock in your voters as early as possible.
@@Icipher4 Yes, but the numbers are greater than usual at this same time. Especially in VA.
Trump ahead in early voting and republican registration
@AnthonyPanepinto-t4e The best thing that will come out of Kamala Harris winning the election will be once her AG ends Trump, we won't have to deal with the delusional lies and misinformation that gullible people like you run with.
This is the same guy who predicted Al Gore was going to be the president. 😂
Yea, he was WAY off on that one. Gore won the popular vote by close to 600k and he lost by only 530 votes in Florida for the Presidency. Yea, he was way off on that one! 😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆
He's 9 from 10 in the last 10 elections. Pretty good record if you ask me.
@@RyanCMcDthat means nothing...I picked the last 7 super bowl winners...so what...
@@zipscrews Well shit, every pollster in the world needs to retire then since some rando super bowl genius says 'so what'
Gore did win. That's why SCOTUS literally stole the election.
Whichever party wins, there will be mayhem regardless
Hopefully no civil war.
why? nobody wants that apart from truly a handful MAGA. it is really one sided.
Much less of mayhem under Trump
😂
sadly , i agree
Luntz should get a new wig if Trump loses..
He uses it to attract the twinks he dates.
When Trump wins frank needs to get a blonde Trump piece 😂
Disagree on dismissing an October surprise. James Comey’s findings on Hillary Clinton proved damning and probably cost her the election.
Hillary Clinton was going to lose anyway because of how disliked she was and then Trump used Baghazi and the missing emails. She wasn't inspiring her voters a lot though she still lost very narrowly.
Nonsense . You people need to drop that excuse /fable
I just don’t think those October’s surprises are surprises any more.
and he may have murdered over 1 million Americans indirectly as a result!
Could be, yet by that metric Trump has one October surprise after another for the last how many years and nobody seems to change their mind. For some reason Trump is graded on a different scale than everybody else.
They keep trying to hurt Trump, third time yesterday, what do you know Lichtman??
Who keeps trying to hurt Trump?
Please, be specific, don't generalize, and substantiate with facts.
@@benjierodriguez6518the truth hurts don’t it
@@benjierodriguez6518do your research...all over the Internet.
@@benjierodriguez6518 well let’s see first guy, Thomas crooks, 2nd guy ryan routh, yesterday was Vern Miller, and the other guy I have to look up, hold on
@@benjierodriguez6518 Thomas crooks shot President Trump in Butler Pennsylvania and was K I l led by secret service, Ryan Routh was hiding in the bushes while President Trump was trying to golf, secret service saw him. S h o t at him then he ran the police chased him down during a pursuit, I don’t know too much about yesterdays guy, it was in Coachella Ca, his vehicle was full of g u n s, this will probably get deleted, where have you been? You must listen to main stream media.
Frank already called this race for Harris post debate, remember!
Lichtman will have more to worry about than butterflies when this is over. I bet nobody has him on
he got a damn good record it is going to be a harris landslide
@@coolasice7560Right, except for the fact that it’s not. How can it be a landslide when she’s going to lose?
Every body has had him on .. he's never been wrong in 40 years
@@barbarafuller5098 He also said that Biden’s mental state was perfectly fine prior to July. Stop buying the false hope. Everyone can predict an election when you change your predictions on election night.
Three guys I like to hear from throughout the election cycle. All from different backgrounds and with varying perspectives. This country is not as divided as portrayed by some out there.
Are you serious the white supremacists went to Springfield Ohio after trump said Haitians were eating pets. They were threaten with bombs attacks on their schools, hospitals shopping centers and churches.
I still refuse to believe that allen lichtmans hair is real
Hair dye is a wonderful thing
then dont That has ZERO to do with the video ....
He picked the “little Dutch boy” style😂
It's plainly a whole-head hair transplant. It looks silly.
Trump believes it because he sold it to him.
Please tell Mr. Lichtman that this is a different race. He is 9 of 10 but I am 16 of 16 in my life.
He hears this alot. It would be amazing if he would be wrong this time, but I doubt it
Every race has been different & he has picked correctly since 1981. He chose Gore in 2000 & SCOTUS caused the only hiccup in his predictions.
WHAT/
I DONT BELIEVE IN POLL
Professor you are losing it! You did not use your keys correctly this time!
The problem with Licthman's prediction, its that he misapplied his keys to favor Harris. For example there IS a third party candidate (RFK) because he was kept on the ballot in 3 swing states.
Being on the ballot doesn't mean he's still running. He dropped out of the race already and lost percentage. By that logic of "being on the ballot," that would mean every presidential race had a 3rd party candidate.
And Jill Stein and Cornell West. Let's take MI for instance, close to 100 000 Muslim voters rejected Joe Biden in the primary due to the war in Gaza. Months forward the war is not only not done but getting worse and threatening to spread further in the region. Does Kamala now get those votes? I doubt it, therefore Trump should win MI logically. Yet Allan believes that key goes to Kamala to your point. Allan doesn't take the Gaza war as a major international conflict. Like you said, nothing wrong with the keys, just his bias is blinding him which is sad.
Harris has 9 keys and Trump has 4 keys. Even if your assertion was correct, which isn't going to factor into anything, Trump would still lose 8 to 5.
You have misunderstood what the third party candidate key is about (key 4). It doesn't have anything to do with whether or not there IS a third party candidate, it is whether or not they are in a position to have an impact on the outcome of the race. There are always third party candidates in every election and many of them are on state ballots. The key requires that a third party candidate consistently poll at 10% or higher because it would then mean that they'd pull in about 5% of the national vote which is enough to sway the results of the election. At this point, RFK Jr. is polling at less than 2% nationally which means his impact on the outcome is virtually zero.
@@duckid73 That just isn't true if applied truthfully.
Totally, all my friends supports Trump kept asking everyone to support Trump also talk very loudly!
😅😅😅😅😅
While I was inclined to follow what Lichtman had to say…it’s clear to me he has a bias against Trump. As Trump is ahead in the swing states and people as well as the media are trashing Harris right now.
That’s bs. Trump is not leading in the swing states. Regardless of what Lichan says. Right now Harris is leading but very slightly.
Harris is going to win.
He predicted that Trump was going to win 2016. So, there is no bias against Trump for this year or 2020.
@@akent6393
Do you remember that Hillary Clinton was a head in 2016 in almost all the polls?
Try not to confuse your wishful thinking with reality. Trump drew to an inside straight in 2016 and has done nothing but lose ever since. PA for example has been solid Blue since 1992 and was again in 2020, Add hundreds of thousands of new GenZ voters skewing heavily Dem and women pissed off about the Dobbs decision, it is highly unlikely he can win there. Harris also has more money and a vastly better ground organization.
@@tomodul2619 Shhhh republicans only trust the polls if it shows them winning.
SAY IT AIN'T SO JOE. A REPEAT OF 2016 DONALD TRUMP ELECTED PRESIDENT
ECONOMY ECONOMY ECONOMY period
There's no recession.
Nope, Obama won even though Romney was trusted more on the economy. People don't vote with logic they vote with their feelings.
Trump inherited a growing economy and crashed it on his way out the door. The USA has the strongest economy in the world. And Trump's economic plan of across the board tariffs has the backing of not one serious economist anywhere.
The economy is doing great. Inflation is down (I accept prices are still too high), interest rates are falling and the stock market is currently at all time highs.
Trump gave to biden the WORST economy ever, Worst unemployment in HISTORY. Yeah, you want to talk about that one? HArris by a landslide ON ELECTION DAY. Polls are nonsense because they poll from "LIKELY VOTERS" meaning voters who voted in 2020, 2016,etc. Well, The october surprise, Chris, is the WAVE of NEW voters, Woman, Young, america saving new voters who want trump gone, etc. That's why on election day, there will be a tsunami wave of Harris votes and trump will lose by a landslide ON ELECTION DAY
Hispanic-Latina Woman Voting For TRUMP/VANCE 2024!!! 💃🏽💃🏽💃🏽Let your Predictions be wrong and all our to our Lord Jesus Christ Win!!! 🙏🙏🙏🙏 FIGHT! FIGHT! FIGHT! ♥️♥️♥️♥️♥️♥️♥️♥️♥️
Welcome to your dictatorship..Voting against your own best interests!🤦🏻♀️
Allan is too proud to admit when he is wrong.
When was he wrong?
@chamontlife7858 2000 then said it was a popular vote prediction he never made a prediction prior to that election only retroactively applied his model.
@@chamontlife7858 not was, is
Whenever he makes a mistake, he says that one doesn't count because of x, y, and z. Basically a charlatan.
@@ericwolfley9929No. Gore won Florida. Next?
Following the Trump-Harris debate Luntz came out predicting a Harris win in the election. ....... now he is clearly upset that his prediction is looking very shaky....... as a pollster his reputation is on the line. Poor Frank
Furthermore how do you make predictions if you don’t look at polls?
Polls are ONLY a DAY event , Polls change by the Hour and there are people who are not IN the polls who WILL vote on Nov 5th Polls are ONLY a snapshot of a SINGLE day and Time .
Look at his model. It’s got nothing to do with polls. It’s based upon the successes and wins of the incumbent party in the White House.
You are completely missing the point of Lichtmans theory
Well in my opinion Alan's keys are as he interprets them. Another person might interpret them differently so how can they be reproduceable by someone else ?
Anyone can use his keys and come up with different prediction. it's like using the farmers almanac to tell the weather 3 months out it's pointless.
@@taylorcampbel9639 Yep
Allan might have to visit a locksmith to change those "keys" after Trump wins.
Harris WILL win in a LANDSLIDE ....... bet me !!! dump is a moron , idiot and loser ...
Chump isn't winning.
Good thing Chump isn't winning.
not likely read the book
orange man trumpie ain't winning
I like the wig on the guy on the left and the way Luntz dyes hair
Litchman will be humiliated this year.
No he won't......
No. He’s dead-on right.
Either you're wrong, and we'll see a bit more of him over the coming months and future cycles, or you're right and we'll never see him again, lol
Yeah right, Boris.
@mohyor7439 Are you going to provide some reasoning or should we just take your word over his?
The dude on the left saying numbers don’t matter but his system is flawless even though he has been wrong before 😂
"caccarel" means diarrhea in Italian. Come on Como!
Elon getting on stage with Trump in Butter PA is the October surprise that will change this race .
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahah!
Elon does not control a single vote. he is not a superstar. he is minus and not addition
Yes. It will make trump lose even more
Creepy as shit. Elon is a weirdo. Trump
Is senile
yup He just aided trumps loss .... musk is an idiot as well ...
get ready to eat your hair hats gents.
I'd say that Lichtman obviously has a system that has worked, but here's the difference this time. He's never had to deal with his system choosing a candidate as bad as Kamala Harris.
Donald Trump 2016, Donald Trump 2020, Donald Trump 2024, Hillary Clinton 2016
No candidate has been anywhere close to as bad as Trump, including Harris.
For the most part, a bumbling, incoherent, fascist idiot.
Half-right, the biggest difference is that this time the nominee was switched out after the primaries with only a few months left to campaign...a huge risk. Personally, I think Lichtman should have refused to make a pick based on this anomaly. If Lichtman gets this one wrong, he is going to look like a fooI.
@@rowlandmak7846 if he was really all those things you say he is, and that's not just the media telling you that and making him look that way, how could he so successful in business? He was President for 4 years. Our economy just before Covid was breaking record growth. His track record is proven.
And yet somehow he's a stupid bacon. LOL
Harris has accomplished literally nothing, and can't even hold a press conference or a legitimate interview.
Hat is her track record? She has a track record of do nothing.
@@underwaterlevelz1947 the only way he would look like a fool is if Trump win in a landslide. We will see, but you make a good point. She was never actually chosen by voters. That is an anomaly.
I truly believe she was meant to lose. The Obamas don't want to wait another 8 years to run Michelle.
They could not step in to this cycle and they are planning for 2028.
I mean you know Obama told her to choose Walz. Instead for the PA governor, they go with some left wing extreme from Minnesota? Hahaha
Thanks Professor Alan L
Litchtman is not all that professional. Ultra biased. So much so, it likely influences his so called system. I appreciate how Luntz tries to remain neutral.
He loves the rats.
How can he be biased. He called trump in 2016 when all others were calling a Hilary win. He has a letter from trump saying thank you for the prediction. He’s a historian.
If lichtman is wrong his credibility is gone
Bye bye Blackbird to bad hair Lichtman...
You're right. That's it for him.
If he's right, I'd bet on him next cycle. I agree with his theory, I just don't think it accounts for the cult of personality that Donald Trump has. If Litchman is still right THIS year, I think his formula is close to failproof.
He's not credible now!
@@rosiejimenez3953 If he would have predicted Trump, everyone would be singing his praises. Let's see how the election turns out. This particular election is unique in American history. If he gets this one right, I think he's credible.
Wow professor Lichtman is not a joker 😂😂😂. Doesn't waver a bit!
Lichtman's system relies on too much subjectivity. Charisma? Come on. So does 12 cancel out 13 or visa versa? 10 cancel out 11?
The October surprise is listening to Kamala in interviews in October.
Lictman, get a new rug. One for a man in his seventies. Not thirties
that's his real hair. Luntz on the other hand wears a hair piece. One has hair like a twink one, dates twinks.
That's actually his hair (he dyes it though). His son pulled on it during one of the Lichtman live sessions.
What's little donnie's excuse? As a 78 year old man shouldn't he have grown up hair?
Indian for trump
If he gets back in you'd better carry proof of greencard/citizenship with you! Because according to him your type is poisoning the blood of this country. He thinks you're vermin. Ever notice how horribly he treats Usha Vance? Ignores her completely. Oh, but wait. If you're male that probably doesn't matter, right? I don't think that many Indian men respect women. Much like my ex-husband.
This election will end Allen’s nightmare
When trump loses will u riot
@@AngeloGreenwood-p5b Trump will not lose....and you know it.
Whitehouse party administration sure doesn't look good with her, he'll have an answer of how they're doing, he's not that unhinged this time around and there's double the support.... October surprise Pennsylvania 100, 000 or more
Professor will fail this time.
I hope not. Trump will end us.
@@annmarieknapp you weren't ended in 2016. Please don't be a mindless sheep all your life. Sheesh.
He’s absolutely wrong this time!
He said even after the June Trump - Biden debate that Biden will win the election 😂
Only in your Ultra-MAGA wet dream again. 👌🤡👍
Franks hair looks wonderful today.
Everyday. Money well spent.
It's so silly. Sheesh.
Lichtman cant even follow his own model
Explain.
Right. Social unrest comes in different ways.Tgere are variety of strikes within 3 months. This key shoukd be taken as fail. US Foreign military failure is also fail key this time since there are a lot of hostages killed. Short term economy is also fail key since high inflation.
@@tinko5033 the inflation rate is going down.
How? Or are you just talking out of your ass?
YOUR MUST MAKE UP THE POPULATION OF DUMBEST AMERICANS. NOT SURPRISING
1:40 Trump never bragged about assaulting women
Dueling Toupees!
😂😂😂 now that's hilarious
You must be referring to Trump and his minion
Lickman's isn't even close to looking real. 😂
Lichtman's hair is real. Luntz wears a piece. one has hair like a twink; the other dates twinks
@@HolisticTraumaTherapykeep posting the same thing twink
Nobody is going to lie and say they are voting for Trump
Trump has more support than the polls show because some of Trump's MAGA Christian hypocrite cult hates MSM and they will lie to MSM and say they're NOT voting for Trump.
Who has the best rug ? 😂
Litchman has the nerve to say it's all his hair. IDK what Luntz says, but even if it is real, it's the color shoe polish.
Hey, if the technology is there, take advantage.😂😂😂
YOUR FATHER
Get ready for the LANDSLIDE!!!
They both seem to agree that Harris will win 😕😕🤮🤮
WELL YEAH HARRIS ISNT A FELON RAPIST
She already WON!!! Let me give the final facts to this bullsh*t thing of polling.
1 -Polls are nonsense because they poll from "LIKELY VOTERS" meaning voters who voted in 2020, 2016,etc. Well, The october surprise, Chris, is the WAVE of NEW voters, Woman, Young, america saving new voters who want trump gone, etc. That's why on election day, there will be a tsunami wave of Harris votes and trump will lose by a landslide ON ELECTION DAY.
2 - DId you know that Rasmussen polling had trump and biden TEID just ONE DAY before 2020 election da? Look what happened 24 hours later. Biden BLOWOUT of trump 304 to just trumps 234 crappy electoral votes.
TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP
Two things 1) he predicted Biden would win and was fine and 2) I predicted the winner of elections over the years except Trump so how’s my record
Trump/Vance 2024❤🇺🇸🎉❤🇺🇸🎉
lol no way ..... dump is a loser and always will be ....
@@Wilett614 A poor RAT lives with food stamps and laughs at a billionaire
@@Wilett614 Kamala still is a pig even you put lipstick on her.
@@Wilett614 Trump is genius if you compare him with Kamala. lol
@@mwang688 Trump is a senile manbaby and a felon, fraudster, sex offender, fascist, insurrectionist traitor and best friend of Epstein. Trump for jail 2024.
Good grief. I wanted to 🤮 listening to these three idiots stroking each others massive egos. 🙄
Why doesn’t Lichtman be honest and admit that no one can predict this race right now. All of the seven swing states are in the margin of error. If his model had any value, that r would not be the case.
He actually is going against his theory that if the previous administration had done a better job that people would likely vote them in for a second term. Who and heck can say they have done a better job lol!! Trump proved to better superior to Biden in everyway
His model predict winners, not polls
Because polls are complete garbage.
@@JudeNosakhare-cg5xdbs
If you look at the 538 election model they have Harris favored at 55 percent so objectively speaking it's a close race with Harris having a slight edge..
If Lichtman is wrong, it’ll hammer him hard. If he’s right, he’ll be insufferable 🤣
It will make me so happy to see Lichtman proven wrong. He is so biased that he doesn't seem honest.
he won't be wrong. The dems will win handedly.
Not honest? If you're a trump supporter you should be completely and utterly ok with someone lying to you all the time.
Trump is dominating. Theres your October surprise. If you didn’t know it was coming anyway.
Then why did I hear he's changing his diaper twice as often these days?
Vote 🗳️ blue …
Yeah....this country is screwed!
Trump is leading big-time in Pennsylvania and Michigan
In your dreams maybe.
I would advise you to study the polls on RCP.
@@miken.2847
Look at polls, and ask around
I can't find one Kamala supporter
@@jasonmorgan9239
I would advise you to stop watching Kimmel and Colbert
You lost me at, "They are eating cats, they are eating dogs..."
Hari is was up 3 points a month ago in Michigan. Now she is barely up by less than a point. Gaza issue is the death of her. We can’t win without Michigan. Very distressing. Trump made up 3 points and moment is with him. 😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢
Prof. you are quite right...a lot of Dems can still change there minds and vote Trump
already coping 😂
NOPE, no sex offender or felon for me.
Unlikely
Trump is an adjudicate sex offender and felon, you dispute that?
@hoppiemulder7005 You can't differentiate between their and there. Small wonder the orange fascist says he loves the uneducated 😄
Lichtman going to get this one wrong, people won't give an opinion this time around because people are afraid of the Democratic party and their lawfare, and are afraid of getting on the no fly list. He didn't take this into his algorithms. Foolish predictions this year.
Donald Trump is not unhinged, he’s honest. He doesn’t sugarcoat. He doesn’t BS around.
HONEST? The lifelong PATHOLOGICAL LIAR? Delusional much or did you just believe him when he told you not to believe your lying eyes/ears? So those Republican governors of states hit by Helene are not telling the truth about getting plenty of Federal help while lying donnie says they aren't? Do you ever fact check him?
The whole world is watching how Aericans are going to wisely vote for the right candidate, when elected, will be the most powerful man/woman in the world.
Harris 2024
0:46 Yes Professor. I am almost 72 yrs. Old. I am not mocking. .A. couple of experts have noted that some years ago, when you were more alert, you. would have interpreted your model to be a Trump. victory. You still have time to make a correction. I am with you all the way.
Yes, I agree entirely!!!
Trump will break his prediction streak this time
He was wrong in 2000. He said Gore would win.
I do not like coming! Vote blue.
So you're telling me you're an asexual beta male.
Why are people obsessed with the hair of these 2 individuals. 😂.Seriously you might want to dose and put on some Grateful Dead ❤😂🎉
hey yeah now that you mention....there was something that didn't look right.....the hair!! you are spot on
October surprise; Trump soiled himself! Oh wait, that's no surprise.
All these Trump trolls would love Lichtman if he predicted Trump, which he did in 2016 when Hillary was up by nine points in the polls
TRUMP-VANCE ❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤
Stateofdaniel went through his keys, his book etc. He gives the illusion he predicts but he has contradicted himself and his “accuracy” hasn’t been accurate and flawed.
Explain how.
@@vincesmith2499 go watch the explanation. It’s pretty detailed and goes through each one, his book, his predictions and actual outcomes. There may be a couple episodes on it.
debate are won by soundbites, i can remember any from hARRIS...I remember two for trump...eating cats and dogs and "be quiet I am still talking
HARRIS AND WALZ 2024
👎
@@mwang688 GET READY TO CRY
In your dream and get ready to go to North Korea
There are so many hairpieces in this video I lost count.
That’s Allan’s real hair. Go back to videos of him 40 years ago and it looks identical. Some people just have a ton of hair that never goes away. Jay Leno is another example.
@@ejkk9513stick with that 😉😉
@@ProudJacksonOhana Like I said… look up videos of him from 40 years ago. He even did a video recently where he pulled his hair on camera to shut down this nonsense of him wearing a wig.
@@ejkk9513Allan is this your burner account 😂
Not sure Lichtman's model will hold up in a race this close .. Kinda like 2000 ..
Trump -Vance 2024🇺🇸🇺🇸
Why in hell would anyone vote for such jerks?
🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮
Go Dodgers!
Actually I thought Trump won the debate because Harris tried relentlessly to get Trump to look at her, but he just blew her off by ignoring her. That was her game plan, and she totally failed at it.
you're clueless
lol , All dump did was LIE like he always does He is a PATHOLOGICAL LIAR dude .... wake Up ...or maybe its too late for you ...... sorry
Bro what, he looked and spoke like a geriatric
Nobody except MAGA thinks Chump won the debate.
You missed the whole reason Trump even accepted the challenge. Her game plan was to do to Trump the way she did to Biden. I’m a registered Democrat but you have to call it the way you see it. She failed BIGTIME. This debate was about intimidation, Don’t you see that?
Voter turn out is the major key.
I do not care what Lichtman, nor Luntz has to predict or say. I will be away on Election Day, so I voted by Absentee Ballot & my vote proudly went to Trump a third time. I can rest at ease at that realizing I did my part, & give it my all no matter the outcome. Why would any sane person vote for four more years of this, & vote exclusively on hate for one guy alone is mind boggling (self destructive). Wishing the best for Trump.
Good for you voting for a man who 💩💩💩 on himself as he spews lies. You should be so proud to know that when you return, Harris will be president, NJOY YOUR TIME AWAY!!!💙💙💙💙
Why are you here? I hope you're going to Russia because it's sounds like a place you'd really enjoy when Donold loses. You're obviously not fond of democracies. And proudly? You don't have children or grandchildren, do you? That's just sad.
I am a Kamala voter. I don’t hate trump (that is a third grade term). I don’t believe he is sane, healthy, or well meaning. His intentions and speech are absolutely horrific. The man is a convicted felon, a rapist, a verifiable liar, a bankrupt businessman, and a Roy Cohn wannabe. He is not suitable for office. If he is elected, war will worsen, and prices will increase due to tariffs. His last term- he sent us 8 trillion in national debt (that’s more than Obama 2 terms). No thank you. I’ll take sanity.
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Luntz wears a toupee. Does Lichtman, or is that his real hair?
So what?