The odds of hundo from trading with best friend would be: 1/669 approx You have 5% chance to lucky, therefore 0.05*(1/64) 95% for normal trade and a rate of 1/1331, therefore .95*(1/1331) Adding both we get odds of 1/669 Interestingly the odds for you getting a hundo from normal trade that doesn't turn lucky is almost equal to you getting a hundo from normal trade that turns lucky. The odds for former being 1/1401 approx and odds for later being 1/1280.
It’s a one in 20 chance to get a lucky trade. And that lucky trade has a 1/64 chance to be 100% ivs. However I feel combining the rate of 1/1331 (being non lucky best friends) is inaccurate as 1/20 (lucky trade) happens a lot more frequently and every time this happens it’s a 1/64 chance for it to potentially be a hundo
I used to play pokemon go in 2017 but recently I started playing again and you helped me a lot in understanding many new thinks. loved the detailed videos.
I'd love to see a video or short on which pokemon should be purified! Like I know Sableye is a good one to have return on but I'm curious about others? Also I bet plenty of people are interested in why return benefits some pokemon and not others. You are really good at breaking it all down. Thank you!
2 reasons: 1. you want to purify every Pokemon that cost 1000 stardust to purify and has bad stats - to gain the medal, 2. If you have a shadow pokemon with 13-13-13 purifying it will give you 15-15-15, and that is way better then just having a shadow pokemon with very low CP.
YES! I've been searching everywhere for a simplified video on what to do with shadow pokemon (I'm still learning :)). All of mine are currently only 1 star.
@@Man_City_We_Fight_Till_The_end How is that right? A shadow pokemon has +20% of attack, which is the sole reason why you don't want to purge them A 15-15-15 will only have 2 more IVs in attack and everything else (this last part doesn't even matter that much if you look up the formula), but the shadow will have 20% more attack (on a Mewtwo with 300 attack, it's like +60 attack, and then +13 from the IVs, as opposed to only +15 from the hundo)
6:30: When you take into account lucky and normal trades with a best friend, the odds for a hundo are about 1/669. 7:20: One correction here: There’s actually a lot of IVs that will result in a hundo, so the odds are a lot higher than that. For non weather boosted they’re 1/152 and for weather boosted they’re 1/64. Calculations: Best Friend trade: 1/1331 = 0.00075 1/64 = 0.016 0.00075 * 0.95 + 0.016 * 0.05 = 0.0015 1/0.0015 = 669 Non weather boosted purified: 3^3 = 27 16^3 = 4096 27/4096 = 0.0066 1/0.066 = 152 Weather boosted purified: 3^3 = 27 12^3 = 1728 27/1728 = 0.016 1/0.016 = 64 If you spot any mistakes I made, just tell me and I’ll edit the comment.
I commented this as well. But I would suggest purify chances are 26 not 27 in practice. As you would keep the 15/15/15 shadow as a shadow. So best odds would be 1:66.5 (purifying a weather boosted shadow Pokémon except the Hundo shadow). 1:157.5 (purifying a non-weather boosted shadow Pokémon, except the shadow Hundo). Odds rounded to 1 decimal place.
@@sambeaumont395 doesn't makes sense to exclude 15/15/15 since we are looking at the odds to get hundo. It will be a hundo if you purify it or not. Also mathematically it should be considered since it will also give you purified hundo.
@@deepamehra9840 - hence why I said in Practice. Finding a Shadow Hundo is 1:1,728 - if weather boosted 1:4,096 - if not weather boosted The 15/15/15 would come under these odds. When purifying the odds are 1:64 - if weather boosted 1:151.7 - if not weather boosted This includes purifying a Hundo Shadow, but again in practice you already found the Hundo so don’t need and ultimately shouldn’t purify it. In my opinion if the goal is to get a Hundo (Hundo Hunter) the 15/15/15 shadow has already achieved this - which means there are 26 other iv spreads that would if purified result in a Hundo. This drops the odds to; 1:66.5 - if weather boosted 1:157.5 - if not weather boosted I accept that in reality many players will retain any higher iv spread in shadow form, potentially suitable lower iv spreads for GBL too - but this was odds for a Hundo. The overall chances of finding a Hundo are significantly greater in non shadow form vs shadow. In Raids (and Gyms) a 0iv Shadow Pokémon will usually be better than a perfect non-shadow.
I feel like the IV levels are skewed towards lower values. If they were uniformly distributed, the chance of getting a (10/10/10)+ would be the same as (5/5/5)-, however the second one is much more common than the first (in wild non-weather boosted catches).
i'm not entirely sure how is it calculated or what are the odds for each IV but from what i know 0 IVs have a very low chance of appearing than 100 IVs. in fact there could be 100 hundos pokemon but only 3 nundos at a single moment. I'm not sure if the odds increase as the IV average increases but if that's the case then I guess shiny nundos are waaaaay rarer than shundos.
I’ve caught way more 98% Pokémon than hundos. If all things were even it wouldn’t be this way. For example o have 4 98% magikarp/gyarados and only one hundo.
There's 3 ways of getting a 98%, missing one on any of the 3 stats (so 3 in 1000 for the raid legendaries) but only 1 way of getting a 100%. The odds are equal, but you're judging the 14-15-15, 15-14-15 and 15-15-14 as the same.
Overall a pretty good video but I can't believe nobody corrected him on purified hundos: Chance of getting weatherboosted pokemon to hunndo after purification is not 1/1000 - it's not the same as a simple floor of 6/6/6. You have minimum floor of 4,which leaves you with 12*12*12 = 1728 possibilities. But everything above 13/13/13 is going to be a hundo, so there are 27 combinations that will yield a hundo after purification. 27/1728 is 1/64 or around 1.56% for hundo (this is more than 15 times higher than odds suggested by Daxi). For non weather boosted it's the same thing but with 16 different possible stats so 16*16*16 = 4096 27/4096 is around 0.66% so something like 1/151.7 (this is around 18 times better 100 odds than just IV floor of 2/2/2). Just as a little side note - during the first few days after shadows were introduced we were able to trade shadow pokemons. Lucky trading shadow pokemon and then purifying it gave us odds of 27/64 or just below 43% to get a hundo. This was by far the best odds we ever had and it's no surprise they made shadow pokemon untradeable after a few days.
The odds of getting a weather boosted shadow that will purify to 100% is 1/64. This is because there are 1728 total iv combos and 27 of them have a stat of 13 or higher in each stat category
For any trade with a best friend: (lucky) 1/20 times, you get a hundo with probability 1/64. So the whole event of lucky hundo occurs with prob (1/20)*(1/64) (Not lucky) On the other hand, 19/20 times the prob of hundo w/ best friend is 1/1331, so this event occurs (19/20)*(1/1331). Total probability of hundo from trading with best friend (1 time): (1/20)*(1/64) + (19/20)*(1/1331). Multiply by 100 if you're trading 100 times
ITS YOU OLD TIME PLAYERS THAT ARE GARUANTEED LUCKY TRADES .. THE CONDITIONS FOR LUCKY TRADES ARE TIME AND DISTANCE HOW LONG AGO YOU CAUGHT IT AND HOW FAR AWAY YOU CAUGHT IT .. UPS THE ODDS ON LUCKY TRADES 😁👍
The odds of a regular trade (assuming best friends, and no significant contribution to lucky chance from trading old pokemon) becoming a hundo is then: 0.95 * 1/1331 + 0.05 * 1/64 = 1/669
My shundos are Marill from research, Kyurem from a raid and Sentret as a wild spawn at my house. So I'm definitely focusing on research and raids. I also have a Kyurem hundo from a best friend trade.
@@caspervestergaard2430 - if you work it out correctly it is 1:64. The floor for a weather boosted shadow Pokémon is 4/4/4 - this means there is 12 possible IV rating for each of attack, defence and stamina. So odds of getting a Hundo in Shadow form is 1:1,728 (12x12x12 or 12^3) Purifying a Pokémon adds 2 to each IV. So every iv that is 13/13/13 or better will turn into a Hundo. This increases the chances of getting a Hundo. That’s 3 possible IV ratings for each of attack, defense and stamina. So this means you actually have 27 chances (3x3x3 or 3^3) to get a purified Hundo from a weatherboosted shadow. So technically the odds are 27:1,728 Or simplified 1:64 (1,728/64) Now I said technically because in practice most people would be prepared to leave higher iv Pokémon in Shadow form, especially the Hundo. If someone is just a Hundo Hunter then the odds are 26:1,728 or 1:66.5 (1,728/26 = 66.461538… so rounding to one decimal place). - removing the un-purified shadow 15/15/15 Hundo from the chances. You do not just add the purified +2/+2/+2 to the 4/4/4 floor as done in this video - that is wrong. Likewise with non-weather boosted is 27:4,096 or simplified 1:151.7 (again rounded to 1 decimal place) Or 26:4,096, simplified to 1:157.5 (rounded) excluding the 15/15/15 shadow.
Thanks for the information dax, helps so much, but I have a doubt man. I am a f2p trainer and I am at level 32 and I have 5 hundo pokemon and 3 of them were from go battle league. So, what are odds of getting hundo from pvp?
2 роки тому+22
PvP hold the same floor as raids/eggs. So same odds as 10/10/10
@ except on Go-Battle-Days. the floor seems to be lowered. I don't know to wich value but I have gotten encounters with lower IV's but only on go battle days. would be interesting to know what floor it is on those days.
2:55 that's the reason why I go suck on Venusaur CD last Saturday since I played on a Cloudy weather, meaning no 0 atk IVs for my Venusaur in GBL. Since that Venusaur is a beast and it's everywhere
It's not that bad, rank 1 venusaur interms of stat product is not really the best. You do need attack IV to beat some meta picks like G-fisk. I had the same situation and I evolved the one that had break points on top meta picks. And let us not forget that you would need higher attack to beat the opposing venusaur.
Helps a lot! The other day I prayed to the Pokemon gods just letting them know how good I've been and will continue to be, sure enough I received a Hundo Bunnelby later that day. 🤣
Thank you so much for the video daxi. I just caught a 13/13/13 weather boosted shadow bagon from arlo but as shadow pokes are really powerful so I probably won't purify it 😅.
While the concept of a 216 sided die is correct, it is actually not the best way to think about the odds. Here is a better way: When you win a raid, the encounter can have any IV between 10 and 15. Imagine a bowl with 6 pieces of paper numbered 10, 11, etc. up to 15. You then pull out the first number from this bowl for the attack stat. You out the paper back in, shake up the bowl, and draw for the defense stat. Put the paper back in and draw for the stamina stat. For you to get a hundo, you need to draw the same number 15 three times in a row. Similarly, you could imagine 6×6×6=216 pieces of paper, each with a different IV combination. Your goal is to find the 1 piece of paper that says 15/15/15.
The Purified non wether boosted chances are actually 27/4096 and the weather boosted chances are actually 1/64 Explanation: Non weather boosted: for every stat you have got a 3 in 16 chance to get 13, 14 or 15 in the stat so 3/16 per stat. multiply that 3 times : (3/16)*(3/16)*(3/16) = 27/4096 chance Weather boosted: for every stat you have got a 3 in 12 chance to get 13, 14 or 15 so 3/12 or 1/4. multiply again: (1/4)*(1/4)*(1/4) = 1/64 chance sry for typos im not native.
Hey i was wondering if the legendary (5* raid bosses) odds for pvp was lowered? this season i havent got a genesect or regice and i was grinding a lot... Do you know anything?
Yup. I certainly think they have! I have not got a single legendary/mythical since Dec! Over 100 encounters for sure. This is sad on the part of Niantic especially for free-to-play players.
Yeah they did. Last season the legendaries in GBL rewards were more common however their catch rates were abysmal. So they increased the catch rates but decreased the legendary encounter rate
@Kejzi ツ kinda, yes. I guess they just didn't think through the fact that increasing the likelihood of legendaries from GBL rewards in the first place might have had that much of an impact on ppl buying (remote) raid passes. So
I honestly like the whole shadow thing and I have tons of 3 star shadows and a few that are 98% and 96% but man shadows kinda suck no matter how strong they are. They hit hard but when they get hit their health bar is basically gone. Love your videos man you seem to care that we know how to do things correctly so thank you for that!!!
Watching this threw me back to a video from the early/mid 2000s on the drop rate of rares in pso ep1&2 on GameCube, where the rarest weapon was 1 / 190,650 chance. The odds are far better than one expects at first, though I swear trading never works for me. Never gotten a hundo from a lucky trade, yet my last 3/4 hundos(between may of last year and jan) were all non weather boosted in the wild, and one onix from an egg.
Can you make a video on spending money in Pokemon go, telling which box of pokecoins is the best to buy and how much it takes to buy incubators or rocket radar or raid passes. Anyways Great videos
Trading w/ a best friend: 11*11*11= 1331 outcomes, of which 1 is a 15/15/15 IV Pokemon With 100 trades a day, you have an expected 100/1331 chance of getting a 15/15/15 (excluding lucky trades) However, if you have 5% chance of lucky trades, that means 5 of the 100 pokemon you trade in a day should be lucky. So you have 95 regular trades (95/1331) + 5 lucky trades (5/64), meaning you have a (12735/85184 ~ 14.95%) chance of getting a lucky from 100 trades with a best friend.
When you have 5% chance for lucky it doesn't mean you get 5 lucky when you trade 100. There is 18% chance of getting 5 lucky pokemons when you trade 100 times. There is a 0.6% chance of not getting any lucky in 100 trades when the individual chance is 5%. Also you have 1.7% chance of getting 10 lucky in the 100 trades. Whenever there is a certain chance of success for a given event then you always speak in terms of chances for the number of repeated success over your trials.
You did a good analysis homie. Ultimately it comes down to rng luck. People dont waste your money. If you get it then congrats. If not its not the end of the world. Also you dont need to max out mons in go battle league for master league. Get them to lvl 45 and you'll be fine. It comes down to strategy.
I love how you explain probability accurately but within context of Pokémon Go! May have to share this video with maths teachers to inspire a more interactive lesson.
Daxi - #1 great stuff and keep it coming! Wanted to ask you how much value you feel there is in trading. I get the Hundo hunting, but 1/464 is 46,400 stardust. I look at catching Pokemon and think...well today just to break even on my trading - I need to catch 100 Pokémon. I am considering just doing lucky trades at 1/64, which granted is 51,200 dust for the hundo but also...likely to be a Shundo or Legendary when it happens. I also understand its WAY different for a casual player who tries to get out 3-4 times per week vs someone who is grinds daily. Thoughts?
Great video PokiDaxi I did a couple of trades with my mom a couple days ago because she needed a good helioptile and a few trades in they became lucky then the next trade I got a hundred percent helioptile which I find funny.
6:26 the odds are 1 in 668.9 edit: you're odds are way higher probably because of lucky trades, even just a couple hundos from lucky trades can change the total odds drastically
U just multiply the weighting of the chance. So 1 in 1331 times 0.95 + 0.05 times 1/64. This gives 1 in 669 actual odds of a hundo from best friend non lucky friend trades. If u use this to see an average amount of hundos per day its 0.15% ( that's 0.15 of 1%, not 15%). This adds up to "on average" 1 hundo per week of 100 daily trades. Also as a side note, all these odds are the exact same for any specific iv set u want. 15/15/15 is just as likely as 12/13/14 or watever. As long as the iv floor allows it.
What I’m learning from this is that I’m incredibly unlucky for getting a 100% IV from all the trades I’ve done 😅 I’m well over the “drop rate” for trades with a best friend and over double the drop rate for lucky trades. Zero 100% IVs from trades so far
I have had four hundos from trades, all random. One was random but went lucky and hundo.. Over 1300 trades with the same person over a year and a half.. Mad
I recently got a Shlundo(in case you didn't know, it's a shiny 100IV pokemon) from one of my friends. It's a Rayquaza caught on July the previous year. That's my only Shlundo till now, though Cp is very bad. Now powering up from 2137 to max CP will take a long time now...
@@sukritsengupta151 That's weird. Hundo rayquaza has 2630 cp at level 24 and 2684 cp at level 24.5. So 2672 cp is impossible. Do you find it in your pokémon box if you type rayquaza&4* ?
Oh and poke daxi thanks for helping me you helped me with a Pokémon go crisis I was low on pokeballs and had no legendary Pokémon so thanks for all your tips
This is good and all, but most of my 100% are oddly wild caught, I don't focus on raids much, but I always have at least 1 egg incubating, and always focus on research tasks that reward pokemon... Sometimes it feels like the situations where you have raised IV floors also have something that makes that % to get a 100 more elusive than it should be
I agree with the wild ones. I got more 100% wild Pokémon than raids and I’m pretty sure I don’t have any from eggs. I got a few 100% legendaries (and a missed Deoxys)
The math for a regular trade: You take the percentage of a lucky trade and multiply that by the odds of a hundo. Then, you take the percentage of a non-lucky trade (100%-lucky%) and multiply that by the odds of a lucky hundo. Finally, you just have to add the two together to come up with a final number. (1/20 * 1/64) + (19/20 * 1/1331) = 1/1280 + 19/26620 = 2547/1703680 = 0.0015 = 0.15% or about 15 hundos for every 10,000 trades or one in every 670ish trades, give or take. You've gotten 32 from 14,000 trades, which is a bit above rate, so they might have changed the odds at some point.
Hey Daxi. Catching a shadow weather boost Pokemon is not 1/1000, its 1/64. Since you would need one of three values in each individual value, (13, 14, or 15 in each value, since purifying any of those brings it up to 15), and there are 12 possibilities (4-15), then the equation would be: 3/12 x 3/12 x 3/12, which is 27/1728, which simplifies to 1/64. No hate - love the vids, just saw this little error and wanted to make sure everyone stayed informed.
You can only make that assumption if you are guaranteed to purify the pokemon. Which a lot of times is not the best idea. Many people keep shadow Pokemon for PvP as they can be stronger than the plain/purified counterpart. In that case the IVs are literally the IVs you caught it with, and you can not reduce for the case(s) that grant perfect stats. That's why they didn't use your shortcut.
@@MarvinTurner He did use the shortcut in the video 7:30, and after he said generally it wasn't a good idea for all the reasons you stated. but some people are just after the hundo, and some shadows are worth purifying or the shadow isn't meta so might as well get a hundo out of it.
Back during the Electabuzz event, I caught a hundo from Giovanni and then caught another one immediately afterwards in the wild. Two in a row! I currently have 83 hundos, mostly from trading.
@Po Your calculation for (weatherboosted) purified pokemon is very very wrong (7:42). since purification increases each IV value by two, you no longer have only one IV combination that leads to 100% when purified, but 27. a weatherboosted pokemon has a IV floor of 4, meaning you have a chance of 27/1728 = 1/64 !!!
Haha I work in the gambling industry, so this was basic to me, was trying to explain this to a friend cus he was complaining about the last community day. I have to send him this video so he believes me 😂🤣🤣 thank you Daxi as always
To hunt a 100% Meltan more efficiently this season I looked up the weather forecast on my phone. It's not 100% accurate but it sometimes predicted Snowy weather raising the min. IV floor to 4/4/4 and a chance of 1/1728 on getting a hundo Meltan.
Here's some "Fermi" math on hundos for a com day. Let's suppose you grind medium hard on a com day and catch 200 bulbasaurs per hour for 6 hours. (1200) total bulbasaurs caught. So far your "expected value" of hundos is 1200* (1/4096) = 0.29 hundos. Now, let us further suppose you also did 20 research tasks where the result was a bulbasaur/ivy/venusaur. This would give you an expected value of 20 * (1/216) = 0.09 hundos. Now, since you probably want the hundo so you can max it out, let us suppose you take your highest level top 600 bulbasaurs and spend the next 6 days trading 100 per day with a friend using the same strategy. 600 * 0.95 * (1/1331) = 0.43 non-lucky hundos. And 600 * 0.05 * (1/64) = 0.47 lucky hundos. Adding this up, from a community day you should get 0.29 + 0.09 + 0.43 = 0.81 non-lucky hundos and 0.47 lucky hundos = 1.28 hundos total. You can up your expected value by catching more, trading more, and doing more tasks with bulbasaur as a reward.
Hey Daxi, i'd say you just need to do the weighted average of both odds, so (1/1331)95%+(1/64)*5% that gives of an average odd of approximately 1/669
this man is MASSIVE brain
Big brain time .
That is correct
this man has 5000000 iq
Gotta remember my math days 🤪 thanks for the tip!
The odds of hundo from trading with best friend would be: 1/669 approx
You have 5% chance to lucky, therefore 0.05*(1/64)
95% for normal trade and a rate of 1/1331, therefore .95*(1/1331)
Adding both we get odds of 1/669
Interestingly the odds for you getting a hundo from normal trade that doesn't turn lucky is almost equal to you getting a hundo from normal trade that turns lucky. The odds for former being 1/1401 approx and odds for later being 1/1280.
It’s a one in 20 chance to get a lucky trade. And that lucky trade has a 1/64 chance to be 100% ivs. However I feel combining the rate of 1/1331 (being non lucky best friends) is inaccurate as 1/20 (lucky trade) happens a lot more frequently and every time this happens it’s a 1/64 chance for it to potentially be a hundo
I used to play pokemon go in 2017 but recently I started playing again and you helped me a lot in understanding many new thinks. loved the detailed videos.
I'd love to see a video or short on which pokemon should be purified! Like I know Sableye is a good one to have return on but I'm curious about others? Also I bet plenty of people are interested in why return benefits some pokemon and not others. You are really good at breaking it all down. Thank you!
2 reasons: 1. you want to purify every Pokemon that cost 1000 stardust to purify and has bad stats - to gain the medal, 2. If you have a shadow pokemon with 13-13-13 purifying it will give you 15-15-15, and that is way better then just having a shadow pokemon with very low CP.
YES! I've been searching everywhere for a simplified video on what to do with shadow pokemon (I'm still learning :)). All of mine are currently only 1 star.
@@Man_City_We_Fight_Till_The_end How is that right? A shadow pokemon has +20% of attack, which is the sole reason why you don't want to purge them
A 15-15-15 will only have 2 more IVs in attack and everything else (this last part doesn't even matter that much if you look up the formula), but the shadow will have 20% more attack (on a Mewtwo with 300 attack, it's like +60 attack, and then +13 from the IVs, as opposed to only +15 from the hundo)
@@HDSFATDPS Mega Mewtwo will be out eventually which will be superior to a 13 13 13 Shadow Mewtwo.
6:30: When you take into account lucky and normal trades with a best friend, the odds for a hundo are about 1/669.
7:20: One correction here: There’s actually a lot of IVs that will result in a hundo, so the odds are a lot higher than that. For non weather boosted they’re 1/152 and for weather boosted they’re 1/64.
Calculations:
Best Friend trade:
1/1331 = 0.00075
1/64 = 0.016
0.00075 * 0.95 + 0.016 * 0.05 = 0.0015
1/0.0015 = 669
Non weather boosted purified:
3^3 = 27
16^3 = 4096
27/4096 = 0.0066
1/0.066 = 152
Weather boosted purified:
3^3 = 27
12^3 = 1728
27/1728 = 0.016
1/0.016 = 64
If you spot any mistakes I made, just tell me and I’ll edit the comment.
I commented this as well.
But I would suggest purify chances are 26 not 27 in practice. As you would keep the 15/15/15 shadow as a shadow.
So best odds would be 1:66.5 (purifying a weather boosted shadow Pokémon except the Hundo shadow).
1:157.5 (purifying a non-weather boosted shadow Pokémon, except the shadow Hundo).
Odds rounded to 1 decimal place.
@@sambeaumont395 doesn't makes sense to exclude 15/15/15 since we are looking at the odds to get hundo. It will be a hundo if you purify it or not. Also mathematically it should be considered since it will also give you purified hundo.
@@deepamehra9840 - hence why I said in Practice.
Finding a Shadow Hundo is
1:1,728 - if weather boosted
1:4,096 - if not weather boosted
The 15/15/15 would come under these odds.
When purifying the odds are
1:64 - if weather boosted
1:151.7 - if not weather boosted
This includes purifying a Hundo Shadow, but again in practice you already found the Hundo so don’t need and ultimately shouldn’t purify it.
In my opinion if the goal is to get a Hundo (Hundo Hunter) the 15/15/15 shadow has already achieved this - which means there are 26 other iv spreads that would if purified result in a Hundo.
This drops the odds to;
1:66.5 - if weather boosted
1:157.5 - if not weather boosted
I accept that in reality many players will retain any higher iv spread in shadow form, potentially suitable lower iv spreads for GBL too - but this was odds for a Hundo.
The overall chances of finding a Hundo are significantly greater in non shadow form vs shadow.
In Raids (and Gyms) a 0iv Shadow Pokémon will usually be better than a perfect non-shadow.
So I can't get most of the preferred pvp IV's from trading. Great.
Duh
Only where you have 1 heart with a friend can you get some good pvp mons
Cry
@@kruidenmix9762 what is good pvp iv's? I thought the better the iv the better. Is that not the case?
@@TipeONegatyve only for the great and master league
I feel like the IV levels are skewed towards lower values.
If they were uniformly distributed, the chance of getting a (10/10/10)+ would be the same as (5/5/5)-, however the second one is much more common than the first (in wild non-weather boosted catches).
i'm not entirely sure how is it calculated or what are the odds for each IV but from what i know 0 IVs have a very low chance of appearing than 100 IVs. in fact there could be 100 hundos pokemon but only 3 nundos at a single moment.
I'm not sure if the odds increase as the IV average increases but if that's the case then I guess shiny nundos are waaaaay rarer than shundos.
I feel like 30%-70% ivs are all much more common than higher or lower ivs. 0% iv pokemon are rarer than 100% it's really not uniform at all
I’ve caught way more 98% Pokémon than hundos. If all things were even it wouldn’t be this way. For example o have 4 98% magikarp/gyarados and only one hundo.
There's 3 ways of getting a 98%, missing one on any of the 3 stats (so 3 in 1000 for the raid legendaries) but only 1 way of getting a 100%. The odds are equal, but you're judging the 14-15-15, 15-14-15 and 15-15-14 as the same.
WHO IS DOING 216 RESHIRAM RAIDS
uhhhhh
No
He literally said it doesn’t work that way
@@Potato_pigeon Yeah but you have to do 216 Raids on averege to get a Hundo
Overall a pretty good video but I can't believe nobody corrected him on purified hundos:
Chance of getting weatherboosted pokemon to hunndo after purification is not 1/1000 - it's not the same as a simple floor of 6/6/6.
You have minimum floor of 4,which leaves you with 12*12*12 = 1728 possibilities.
But everything above 13/13/13 is going to be a hundo, so there are 27 combinations that will yield a hundo after purification.
27/1728 is 1/64 or around 1.56% for hundo (this is more than 15 times higher than odds suggested by Daxi).
For non weather boosted it's the same thing but with 16 different possible stats so 16*16*16 = 4096
27/4096 is around 0.66% so something like 1/151.7 (this is around 18 times better 100 odds than just IV floor of 2/2/2).
Just as a little side note - during the first few days after shadows were introduced we were able to trade shadow pokemons.
Lucky trading shadow pokemon and then purifying it gave us odds of 27/64 or just below 43% to get a hundo. This was by far the best odds we ever had and it's no surprise they made shadow pokemon untradeable after a few days.
Ye i had the doubt in those numbers too, thanks for the clarification!
je nějaká stránka kde bych to našel v češtině a lépe to pochopil?
The odds of getting a weather boosted shadow that will purify to 100% is 1/64. This is because there are 1728 total iv combos and 27 of them have a stat of 13 or higher in each stat category
Most of my hundos are just from the wild. I've only got about a dozen but my most recent one is charmander which I'm super pleased about
Yeah now you have a perfect charmander to evolve, then mega evolve the charizard, make sure legacy blast burn is on it
Too be fair though you catch more people then you do trade/raid/hatch
I'm almost level 40 caught 13,000 mons and only have 19 hundos. 2 of them from trades (both luckys).
Best info, no BS opinions. Thanks!
So proud of my hundo shadow mewtwo.
I nearly passed out with excitement when I realised.
Really enjoy your videos and solid knowledge.
srsly. thats insane yo
Lucky! I almost did the same when I got my 15 14 15 shadow Lugia.
Lol not that special.. thats the only thing everyone's got that.. I hope you got better iv then average people around 80..
@@michaelangeloorozco9549 my shadow lugia is 10 7 11
How do you get a mewto?
For any trade with a best friend:
(lucky) 1/20 times, you get a hundo with probability 1/64. So the whole event of lucky hundo occurs with prob (1/20)*(1/64)
(Not lucky) On the other hand, 19/20 times the prob of hundo w/ best friend is 1/1331, so this event occurs (19/20)*(1/1331).
Total probability of hundo from trading with best friend (1 time):
(1/20)*(1/64) + (19/20)*(1/1331). Multiply by 100 if you're trading 100 times
I stopped playing pokemon go for a while and I might start it again because of you!
ITS YOU OLD TIME PLAYERS THAT ARE GARUANTEED LUCKY TRADES ..
THE CONDITIONS FOR LUCKY TRADES ARE TIME AND DISTANCE
HOW LONG AGO YOU CAUGHT IT AND HOW FAR AWAY YOU CAUGHT IT .. UPS THE ODDS ON LUCKY TRADES
😁👍
@@bren2385 omg that was quick, btw thanks for the tip
@@bren2385 distance dont matter.
The odds for a regular trade going lucky and being a hundo are 1/20 * 1/64 = 1/1280. (5% = 1/20)
The odds of a regular trade (assuming best friends, and no significant contribution to lucky chance from trading old pokemon) becoming a hundo is then: 0.95 * 1/1331 + 0.05 * 1/64 = 1/669
I wouldnt mind seeing a updated list on which pokemon are best kept shadow so i know which ones to purify or not purify.
Kepp on going bro I am always supporting 😃
My shundos are Marill from research, Kyurem from a raid and Sentret as a wild spawn at my house. So I'm definitely focusing on research and raids. I also have a Kyurem hundo from a best friend trade.
Sentret is the best guys
Great video Dax! Can't believe that lucky trades are a 1/64 chance for a hundo!
Technically a purified weather boosted shadow Pokémon is also 1:64.
@@sambeaumont395 No, it is not.
@@caspervestergaard2430 - if you work it out correctly it is 1:64.
The floor for a weather boosted shadow Pokémon is 4/4/4 - this means there is 12 possible IV rating for each of attack, defence and stamina.
So odds of getting a Hundo in Shadow form is 1:1,728 (12x12x12 or 12^3)
Purifying a Pokémon adds 2 to each IV.
So every iv that is 13/13/13 or better will turn into a Hundo. This increases the chances of getting a Hundo.
That’s 3 possible IV ratings for each of attack, defense and stamina.
So this means you actually have 27 chances (3x3x3 or 3^3) to get a purified Hundo from a weatherboosted shadow.
So technically the odds are
27:1,728
Or simplified
1:64 (1,728/64)
Now I said technically because in practice most people would be prepared to leave higher iv Pokémon in Shadow form, especially the Hundo.
If someone is just a Hundo Hunter then the odds are
26:1,728 or 1:66.5 (1,728/26 = 66.461538… so rounding to one decimal place). - removing the un-purified shadow 15/15/15 Hundo from the chances.
You do not just add the purified +2/+2/+2 to the 4/4/4 floor as done in this video - that is wrong.
Likewise with non-weather boosted is 27:4,096 or simplified 1:151.7 (again rounded to 1 decimal place)
Or 26:4,096, simplified to 1:157.5 (rounded) excluding the 15/15/15 shadow.
Literally just got a shadow hundo swinub, one of the best ice/ground raid attacker. Good vid
Thanks for the information dax, helps so much, but I have a doubt man. I am a f2p trainer and I am at level 32 and I have 5 hundo pokemon and 3 of them were from go battle league. So, what are odds of getting hundo from pvp?
PvP hold the same floor as raids/eggs. So same odds as 10/10/10
@ except on Go-Battle-Days. the floor seems to be lowered. I don't know to wich value but I have gotten encounters with lower IV's but only on go battle days. would be interesting to know what floor it is on those days.
@@AbSEnZzZ yeah i remember getting a Frillish with IV of about 6/8/5 if I remember correctly
1/216
@@xlegend1012 That was a bug.
2:55 that's the reason why I go suck on Venusaur CD last Saturday since I played on a Cloudy weather, meaning no 0 atk IVs for my Venusaur in GBL. Since that Venusaur is a beast and it's everywhere
It's not that bad, rank 1 venusaur interms of stat product is not really the best. You do need attack IV to beat some meta picks like G-fisk. I had the same situation and I evolved the one that had break points on top meta picks. And let us not forget that you would need higher attack to beat the opposing venusaur.
Helps a lot! The other day I prayed to the Pokemon gods just letting them know how good I've been and will continue to be, sure enough I received a Hundo Bunnelby later that day. 🤣
Nice vid dax
Thank you so much for the video daxi. I just caught a 13/13/13 weather boosted shadow bagon from arlo but as shadow pokes are really powerful so I probably won't purify it 😅.
How u can even think about purify :D
Please please don't purify it! Shadow Salamence is really powerful.
Shadow Salamence is #1 Dragon attacker until Mega Rayquaza. Nothing else beats Shadow Salamence. It's almost 2 DPS higher than Shadow Dragonite.
Yooooo my friend Has 100% shadow Salamance and he almost purify IT instead of power up XD
I would purify because you can probably get better ones
An iv of 000 is literly more rare then100 IVs lol
you forgot getting hundos from gbl rewards got a hundo stunky myself yesterday, great vid btw
There it's an min. IV floor of 10/10/10 on normal days and on GBL Days its 0/0/0
While the concept of a 216 sided die is correct, it is actually not the best way to think about the odds. Here is a better way:
When you win a raid, the encounter can have any IV between 10 and 15. Imagine a bowl with 6 pieces of paper numbered 10, 11, etc. up to 15. You then pull out the first number from this bowl for the attack stat. You out the paper back in, shake up the bowl, and draw for the defense stat. Put the paper back in and draw for the stamina stat.
For you to get a hundo, you need to draw the same number 15 three times in a row.
Similarly, you could imagine 6×6×6=216 pieces of paper, each with a different IV combination. Your goal is to find the 1 piece of paper that says 15/15/15.
The Purified non wether boosted chances are actually 27/4096 and the weather boosted chances are actually 1/64
Explanation:
Non weather boosted:
for every stat you have got a 3 in 16 chance to get 13, 14 or 15 in the stat so 3/16 per stat. multiply that 3 times : (3/16)*(3/16)*(3/16) = 27/4096 chance
Weather boosted:
for every stat you have got a 3 in 12 chance to get 13, 14 or 15 so 3/12 or 1/4. multiply again: (1/4)*(1/4)*(1/4) = 1/64 chance
sry for typos im not native.
Hey i was wondering if the legendary (5* raid bosses) odds for pvp was lowered? this season i havent got a genesect or regice and i was grinding a lot... Do
you know anything?
Yup. I certainly think they have! I have not got a single legendary/mythical since Dec! Over 100 encounters for sure. This is sad on the part of Niantic especially for free-to-play players.
From what I have heard, people noticed that the odds were lower than before when Zekrom and Reshiram were in Raids. Maybe it stayed like that till now
Yeah they did. Last season the legendaries in GBL rewards were more common however their catch rates were abysmal. So they increased the catch rates but decreased the legendary encounter rate
@Kejzi ツ kinda, yes. I guess they just didn't think through the fact that increasing the likelihood of legendaries from GBL rewards in the first place might have had that much of an impact on ppl buying (remote) raid passes. So
@@keerthanrrao579 u hella unlucky lol, it's not that low, i get like one legendaries per 1 or 2 days
I honestly like the whole shadow thing and I have tons of 3 star shadows and a few that are 98% and 96% but man shadows kinda suck no matter how strong they are. They hit hard but when they get hit their health bar is basically gone. Love your videos man you seem to care that we know how to do things correctly so thank you for that!!!
Bro exactly that's why I personally have a love hate relationship with shadow mewtwo in ML
Hi, I know how to put a new pokestop but can you tell me how to put a new gym ??
The game decides when a pokestop turns into a gym. It has something to do with the density in the cells.
Great video as allways dax!
Thank you Dax. It’s very helpful posting thé informative vids there
I recently got a Shadow Hundo Voltorb! It’s the first time I get a shadow pokemon with max IVs.💪
Nice! I recently got a shadow hundo nidorina.
Watching this threw me back to a video from the early/mid 2000s on the drop rate of rares in pso ep1&2 on GameCube, where the rarest weapon was 1 / 190,650 chance.
The odds are far better than one expects at first, though I swear trading never works for me. Never gotten a hundo from a lucky trade, yet my last 3/4 hundos(between may of last year and jan) were all non weather boosted in the wild, and one onix from an egg.
I have 2 handos from lucky trade, and hundo Kyurem from tegular trade, i was surprised a lot
I reached level 31 yesterday and I also got my first hundo, it was a voltorb😎
Lol a voltorb I got a 100 iv dragonite lolllllllll
My first was Mankey
@@nathanplays29 me too lmao
My first one was a larvitar a couple months ago. Funny thing was i was talking about hundos with someone else prior
@@nathanplays29 Shiny 100% Mewtwo.
Can you make a video on spending money in Pokemon go, telling which box of pokecoins is the best to buy and how much it takes to buy incubators or rocket radar or raid passes.
Anyways Great videos
Thanks for the tip about purifying shadows! Found two hundos hiding in my 3* shadows that just needed to be purified for that boost
Trading w/ a best friend:
11*11*11= 1331 outcomes, of which 1 is a 15/15/15 IV Pokemon
With 100 trades a day, you have an expected 100/1331 chance of getting a 15/15/15 (excluding lucky trades)
However, if you have 5% chance of lucky trades, that means 5 of the 100 pokemon you trade in a day should be lucky. So you have 95 regular trades (95/1331) + 5 lucky trades (5/64), meaning you have a (12735/85184 ~ 14.95%) chance of getting a lucky from 100 trades with a best friend.
When you have 5% chance for lucky it doesn't mean you get 5 lucky when you trade 100. There is 18% chance of getting 5 lucky pokemons when you trade 100 times. There is a 0.6% chance of not getting any lucky in 100 trades when the individual chance is 5%. Also you have 1.7% chance of getting 10 lucky in the 100 trades. Whenever there is a certain chance of success for a given event then you always speak in terms of chances for the number of repeated success over your trials.
Love your vids 😍
I got super lucky. I was on level 10/20 . And got a hundred percent in my first raid since I started. It was a hippodon.
You did a good analysis homie. Ultimately it comes down to rng luck. People dont waste your money. If you get it then congrats. If not its not the end of the world. Also you dont need to max out mons in go battle league for master league. Get them to lvl 45 and you'll be fine. It comes down to strategy.
Bro, you're such a good channel. 👊
Daxi shwitched the Outtroooo😨
Thanks for this video. I’m new to pokemon go and these are helpful.
Amazing informative video 👏
Ty i really needed this help
Love the vids keep it up man
I love how you explain probability accurately but within context of Pokémon Go! May have to share this video with maths teachers to inspire a more interactive lesson.
Hey man I freaking love your videos and u are incredible awesome
Daxi - #1 great stuff and keep it coming!
Wanted to ask you how much value you feel there is in trading. I get the Hundo hunting, but 1/464 is 46,400 stardust. I look at catching Pokemon and think...well today just to break even on my trading - I need to catch 100 Pokémon. I am considering just doing lucky trades at 1/64, which granted is 51,200 dust for the hundo but also...likely to be a Shundo or Legendary when it happens.
I also understand its WAY different for a casual player who tries to get out 3-4 times per week vs someone who is grinds daily.
Thoughts?
Great video PokiDaxi I did a couple of trades with my mom a couple days ago because she needed a good helioptile and a few trades in they became lucky then the next trade I got a hundred percent helioptile which I find funny.
6:26 the odds are 1 in 668.9
edit: you're odds are way higher probably because of lucky trades, even just a couple hundos from lucky trades can change the total odds drastically
The odds would be 1/669, if trading is done with only best friend.
I got my first number wrong because I was using a phone calculator and not a graphing calculator
Yeah, the first number seemed odd since if it is a 5%chance to lucky and 1/64 chance for lucky hundo that itself is 1/1280.
We need this video about shiny pokemon after this GO Fest, people seems to think they are guaranteed a shiny because they bought the ticket.
Great video, it's nice to see all this info laid out so quickly.
Great explanation of the trading probability.
U just multiply the weighting of the chance. So 1 in 1331 times 0.95 + 0.05 times 1/64. This gives 1 in 669 actual odds of a hundo from best friend non lucky friend trades.
If u use this to see an average amount of hundos per day its 0.15% ( that's 0.15 of 1%, not 15%). This adds up to "on average" 1 hundo per week of 100 daily trades.
Also as a side note, all these odds are the exact same for any specific iv set u want. 15/15/15 is just as likely as 12/13/14 or watever. As long as the iv floor allows it.
3:46
My 1st Hundo was Yanama which was hatched from Egg. My 2nd Hundo was a Weedle which came from a limited time research.
What I’m learning from this is that I’m incredibly unlucky for getting a 100% IV from all the trades I’ve done 😅 I’m well over the “drop rate” for trades with a best friend and over double the drop rate for lucky trades. Zero 100% IVs from trades so far
I have had four hundos from trades, all random. One was random but went lucky and hundo.. Over 1300 trades with the same person over a year and a half.. Mad
My discovery:
When you get a pkmn, others that catch it will have similar IVs
I think you have to be level 30+. Then every wild pokemon has the same iv for all players.
@@mrnoneofurbusiness7942 Correct
I recently got a Shlundo(in case you didn't know, it's a shiny 100IV pokemon) from one of my friends. It's a Rayquaza caught on July the previous year. That's my only Shlundo till now, though Cp is very bad. Now powering up from 2137 to max CP will take a long time now...
Are you sure about the 2137 cp? That can never be 100 % for rayquaza.
@@ann-kathrin2084 I don't know, but my friend might have powered up sometime.
@@sukritsengupta151 And how many cp has it now?
Yes, now it's 2672 CP currently, though I rarely care to power up nowadays.
@@sukritsengupta151 That's weird. Hundo rayquaza has 2630 cp at level 24 and 2684 cp at level 24.5. So 2672 cp is impossible. Do you find it in your pokémon box if you type rayquaza&4* ?
Oh and poke daxi thanks for helping me you helped me with a Pokémon go crisis I was low on pokeballs and had no legendary Pokémon so thanks for all your tips
This is good and all, but most of my 100% are oddly wild caught, I don't focus on raids much, but I always have at least 1 egg incubating, and always focus on research tasks that reward pokemon...
Sometimes it feels like the situations where you have raised IV floors also have something that makes that % to get a 100 more elusive than it should be
I agree with you - higher “odds” but actually weighted.
I agree with the wild ones. I got more 100% wild Pokémon than raids and I’m pretty sure I don’t have any from eggs. I got a few 100% legendaries (and a missed Deoxys)
The math for a regular trade:
You take the percentage of a lucky trade and multiply that by the odds of a hundo. Then, you take the percentage of a non-lucky trade (100%-lucky%) and multiply that by the odds of a lucky hundo. Finally, you just have to add the two together to come up with a final number.
(1/20 * 1/64) + (19/20 * 1/1331) = 1/1280 + 19/26620 = 2547/1703680 = 0.0015 = 0.15% or about 15 hundos for every 10,000 trades or one in every 670ish trades, give or take.
You've gotten 32 from 14,000 trades, which is a bit above rate, so they might have changed the odds at some point.
Some people did not play runescape when they were young and it’s showing.
(They would know how odds work going super dry on droprates)
Awesome thank you!!❤👍👍🙏
I thonk you should make a video on the best pokemon to leave to a gym
Hey Daxi. Catching a shadow weather boost Pokemon is not 1/1000, its 1/64.
Since you would need one of three values in each individual value, (13, 14, or 15 in each value, since purifying any of those brings it up to 15), and there are 12 possibilities (4-15), then the equation would be:
3/12 x 3/12 x 3/12, which is 27/1728, which simplifies to 1/64.
No hate - love the vids, just saw this little error and wanted to make sure everyone stayed informed.
You can only make that assumption if you are guaranteed to purify the pokemon. Which a lot of times is not the best idea. Many people keep shadow Pokemon for PvP as they can be stronger than the plain/purified counterpart. In that case the IVs are literally the IVs you caught it with, and you can not reduce for the case(s) that grant perfect stats. That's why they didn't use your shortcut.
@@MarvinTurner He did use the shortcut in the video 7:30, and after he said generally it wasn't a good idea for all the reasons you stated. but some people are just after the hundo, and some shadows are worth purifying or the shadow isn't meta so might as well get a hundo out of it.
Back during the Electabuzz event, I caught a hundo from Giovanni and then caught another one immediately afterwards in the wild. Two in a row! I currently have 83 hundos, mostly from trading.
How many trades? I have 2600 trades and 2 hundos from it, both lucky.
@@SlowDelSol I do the max 100 per day and get a hundo about every 2 or 3 days. I'm up to almost 200 hundos now (2 shiny).
Wouldn't mind a little more detail about why you don't want to purify your shadow pokemon
Awhile back you said you were gonna do a shiny odds video break down. Did I miss that or still working on it?
Daxi, I need an answer, what's the best legendary dragon type pokemon in your opinion
Man just explained the literal concept of odds. Kinda depressing he's right that he needs to.
Bro you deserve more than a million subs.💛
Thanks I had 0 idea how 100% work
@Po Your calculation for (weatherboosted) purified pokemon is very very wrong (7:42). since purification increases each IV value by two, you no longer have only one IV combination that leads to 100% when purified, but 27. a weatherboosted pokemon has a IV floor of 4, meaning you have a chance of 27/1728 = 1/64 !!!
In my last trade I got a shundo Cubchoo. Ofcourse it had the outfit, But idc. It's still a shundo. Thanks for the video Daxi.
This guy just said "if my math is correct" referring to adding two. Stay humble, man.
Haha I work in the gambling industry, so this was basic to me, was trying to explain this to a friend cus he was complaining about the last community day. I have to send him this video so he believes me 😂🤣🤣 thank you Daxi as always
I found a perfect iv Chimchar while going to a Pokémon card store😨
4:50 - 5:00 💀💀
Those who watched with captions ON (English).
I got to 100% IVs in a row from go battle league! Pretty darn good. I was way excited
Today I've caught 100%IV shadow poliwag. He's gonna be a beast!
To hunt a 100% Meltan more efficiently this season I looked up the weather forecast on my phone. It's not 100% accurate but it sometimes predicted Snowy weather raising the min. IV floor to 4/4/4 and a chance of 1/1728 on getting a hundo Meltan.
I have caught 3 Hundos in the wild not weather boost, 2 from eggs, and 1 in special research. I started playing 5 months ago
Grate tips it’s awesome awesome thanks so much for the heads up
Just got hundo Shadow bagon, still trying to get it's shiny but finding arlo is quite difficult 🥺
Nice video thanks
"Magikrap" LOL I nearly missed that joke. Great name! XD
You can also get legendaries/ regular Pokémon from pvp. And they are gonna have an IV floor of 10 10 10
Here's some "Fermi" math on hundos for a com day. Let's suppose you grind medium hard on a com day and catch 200 bulbasaurs per hour for 6 hours. (1200) total bulbasaurs caught. So far your "expected value" of hundos is 1200* (1/4096) = 0.29 hundos. Now, let us further suppose you also did 20 research tasks where the result was a bulbasaur/ivy/venusaur. This would give you an expected value of 20 * (1/216) = 0.09 hundos. Now, since you probably want the hundo so you can max it out, let us suppose you take your highest level top 600 bulbasaurs and spend the next 6 days trading 100 per day with a friend using the same strategy. 600 * 0.95 * (1/1331) = 0.43 non-lucky hundos. And 600 * 0.05 * (1/64) = 0.47 lucky hundos. Adding this up, from a community day you should get 0.29 + 0.09 + 0.43 = 0.81 non-lucky hundos and 0.47 lucky hundos = 1.28 hundos total. You can up your expected value by catching more, trading more, and doing more tasks with bulbasaur as a reward.
While watching your video now I got a non lucky hundo magickarp.can you please tell how was possible
you can also get a Hundo or high IV Pokemon from trading that aren't lucky.
luck
I got a shundo tornadus from a raid
I have a shadow snorlax I tmd it barely wit 13/14/13 should I purify ?
Thanks for the tips! My goal for this year is getting 10+ shundos and this help me out
With one lucky friend trade per day, you’d need 298 days to reach 99% odds of getting a hundo at least once.
Can you please make a video on how lucky friends work!
I am curious if you would make an info graphic with this stuff.