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Hey actually said this year 2017, yep totally agree. Annoying, still interesting, even if his predictions are about 3 years out. Way better than anyone else
That’s why I only watch the videos on his channel. These videos are just repeats videos that he already did. His latest video has this title “"The Great Transformation" - TAQA 20th Anniversary Celebration / Dhahran, Saudi Arabia [16 Oct 2023]” And it’s very good
He’s absolutely right about the disruptions coming. I don’t understand why people are so hung up over whether his time estimates are off by a few years. Even a decade off! So what? MASSIVE disruption is coming exactly as he predicts. Like gravity. Nobody can stop it because it’s all based on well understood cost and technology curves. Deal with it.
His time-line is way off. I believe most of what he says will happen, but not until the 2040s. Big Oil / Utilities, governments and other corporations have to much to lose to let this change happen to fast.
@@jefferysurratt5650, I think 2040’s is a bit pessimistic simply because the cost curves so clearly favor SWB that even greater fossil fuel subsidizing won’t be enough to change the fundamental economics. And exponential growth can be quite stunning in terms of the speed of market domination. But I agree that 2030 is aggressive. Guess we’ll have to wait and see how long it really takes: 2030’s or 2040’s.
He makes special mention of Tesla and Nividia . If you had listened then and invested in both, you would have done insanely well. This presentation has aged VERY well.
Very old video, but a classic. FSD prediction way off, but a lot of progress has been made since 2017, lately because of the new disruptor that has arisen: advanced ML (with the name inflated to AI). And that’s in the early part of the steep part of the S curve.
Tesla won't have Level 5 in a few years. It's not close now, and no evidence it's improving fast enough for such a high level of safety any time soon. You don't know that FSD is in the early phase of the steep S curve. It's quite possible that the cheap camera sensors and bad maps will put a low ceiling on how good FSD can be. A real Level 5 car in a large fleet would have to be able to safely drive around a big city for tens of millions of miles between any bad failures, and not have repeating similar bad failures, or it won't be allowed to go driverless in any state because of federal recalls, lawsuits, horrible press, and violating state driving laws, even in Texas and Florida.
2024 and the BYD Seagull costs 10K USD. The only problem that you can't buy it for 10K in Europe cause it's not available or import tariffs gonna make it cost 20K!
2017 presentation. While directionally correct, I think Tony was a little too optimistic by about 5 years (i.e., looks like most of his projections will occur by 2035, not 2030)
As this was from 2017 and before Covid I think some of his target dates are been postponed by about 2 to 3 years. But it seems pretty realistic with all electric cars by 2030 to 2035 but EV Autonomous Taxis will take longer in my opinion maybe 2035.
When IBM was ready to launch their first IBM PC they made a study and estimated that the total market potential for PC's in the USA would be less than one million units. that's why they did not want to build their own operating system, and went for Microsoft as Bill Gates was only asking a few dollars per unit sold for it's MS DOS !
Not sure he's on the money regarding energy costs especially relating to charging EVs for instance. In the UK it's costing a lot more for public charging per mile than petrol.
Globally, EV sales were 16.5 percent in 2023. Almost a 30% increase from the 2022 sales. China passed Japan as the largest global exporter of passenger vehicles.
Am I wrong in thinking when Tony said there will be 80% less cars on the road, he actually means 80% less cars parked in either public or private lots... seems like more of a benefit to cities & providing companies than individuals owning their own autonomous electric vehicles, especially if they'll be so cheap. But please tell me why i'm dumb
When he says on the road he means in circulation. So if a city has 1000 cars, most parked, say 900 parked and 100 being actively driven, there'll be 200 cars, 100 charging or being serviced and still 100 on the road.
7 years old - 2017 for all who wonder, what a mess if amrerican pay 1$ per day for their whole power consumption if they store it during off peak time ? I bet this will be far more than 10 kWh which is the average here. And we pay 3,6 $ for a day
@@williammoore413 He says it's in early 2017, when he quotes Elon about FSD driving across the USA by the end of 2017, which Tony says that's "by the end of this year".
It seems like the golden age for renewables is over in places that already use a lot of volatile generation like Denmark, Germany and California. In California NEM 3.0 seems to have killed that entire business, rooftop installations have dropped by 80% - this was not a disruption, it was a business model based on other peoples money. The problem with solar generation in an area is that all generators have the same feed-in profile, they generate electricity at the same time of the day. NEM 1.0 and 2.0 have forced electricity companies to buy these kWh's at noon for a high price wheras the kWh at the spot or day ahead market was already close to worthless due to an ever increasing amount of installations. This rises the system costs of electricity as California is now one of the most expensive places for end consumers in terms of costs per kWh in the US - how so, if everything became so cheap? (It's the system cost that matters...) China sits on top of a huge pile of overcapacity for solar panel production - 50% too much! Why? Because the world became a bit cautious when looking at the chaos in Germany, California, Denmark or South Australia. Wind energy actually became more expensive over the last few years, the times of ever dropping price curves are over - the UK had to increas the CFDs for offshore generation from 44 GBP/MWh to 72 GBP/MWh. The largest wind farm in Sweden, Markbygen Ett, has faced a bancruptcy - how so? The battery-storage-disruption is nothing more than a myth. Tony Seba does not get it right here as he wants to draw a conclusion of the possible price for battery cells and the system price for battery storage. A Tesla Megapack is still today at $262/kWh - to store one day of electricity in Germany (1.5 TWh) upfront costs of $393 Billion would have to be spend. One day. We just had a Dunkelflaute lasting two weeks - weeks, not a day. And heating and transport are not even close to be called "fully electrified". Wishful thinking. Even DIY-systems like I built (mine, for friends etc.) with quality inverters (the blue ones from a famous Dutch company paired with black 48V LFP battery modules starting with P... ) are between 250 - 390€/kWh - a luxury item, nothing more. And a home battery actually works by cannibalizing the grid - conventional generation would still be required. Nothing will be obsolete by 2030 - we do see a massive deployment of nuclear energy that is superb in terms of EROEI, low use of raw materials, conventional synchronous machines with black start capabilities + control of reactive power for transmission lines. And nuclear is still way cheaper - let's dive in deeper: We want 6.4 GW of dispatchable power. As wind energy has higher capacity factors around the globe, we will chose wind as source of generation. To power an electrolyzer (as battery is way too expensive - seen above) we need to oversize the wind farm - 25 GW. That is 60 Billion €. The next thing is the electrolysis - no one has ever built them commercially so we assume 1 Billion € for 1 GW and we need 20 GW - that is 20 Billion €. Quite cheap are 6GW of gas plants (for hydrogen) for 5 Billion €. We are at 85 Billion € at the moment. Hydrogen storage would require another Billion as gas cavern storage is often too small. That is 86 Billion € for 6.4 GW of firm power or 13,43 Billion €/GW Bulgaria has bought two Westinghouse AP1000 for 13,2 Billion € or 5.89 Billion €/GW. (An AP1000 has an output of 1,12 GW.) The AP1000 last at least 60 years, probably 80 years. The wind park will last probably 25 years. No more words needed. You can buy the AP1000 already, hydrogen read gas plants, mega electrolyzers and other things do only work in an R&D-environment. The Onkalo spent nuclear fule repository has only cost 1.4 Billion €. Cheap renewable electricity - what a myth. It'll work on your roof but nothing else should be used. What a waste of materials, man hours and money.
He got the EV timing very wrong due to misinterpretation of battery data. The battery efficacy is based on ideal ambient conditions, which do not exist "on the road".
Hello Tony, I read your books and am a fan of your work. Your lectures do not forecast heavy constraints that might slow down disruption. In our country 'The Netherlands' to grid is certainly one of them and I suspect we are not the only ones. I must say we do not build enough storage capacity as your models predict, so that might be part of the answer. I also wonder why our government plans for so much hydrogen power for industries, while you seem to stick to electric only. Would appreciate comments on the role of the grid hampering progress.
Hydrogen could be used to store energy. I mean extra electricity that is not consumed. What Seba calls superpower. You can either store it in caverns as we do for methane or use it in heavy trucks, etc And why not even just burn it to provide electricity during the short periods of time there's not enough electricity produced; avoiding fossile fuels use.
If you’re as big of a fan of Tony Seba as you say you are - you would know that this is not his UA-cam channel. His actual UA-cam channel is called “Tony Seba.” This video is just some knucklehead uploading Tony’s video from 2017 and pretending it is new. Don’t worry, everything is up-to-date though, nothing that has to do with autonomy has changed since 2017 - fully autonomous Tesla are definitely coming “next year.”
Interesting lecture, to think on technologies and disruption, but honestly he didn't predict one single date correctly. My doubt still is wheter it's a question of time (5 or 10 years later it will happend) or actually never.
Do people highly educated in thermodynamic physics know of a higher consideration of nature that overrides accepting that diodes can rectify Johnson - Nyquest thermal noise power and, given the orderliness of consistent orientation in parallel, aggregate a DC residue from each diode into electrical power at any scale coproduced with refrigeration of equivalent thermal energy absorbtion?
The idea of using diodes to rectify Johnson-Nyquist thermal noise to produce electrical power is related to the concept of stochastic resonance and energy harvesting. Stochastic resonance refers to the phenomenon where a system's response to a weak input signal is enhanced by random noise. In the context of thermodynamic physics, this can involve harnessing thermal fluctuations (thermal noise) to produce useful work, such as generating electrical power. The concept of using rectifying diodes to convert thermal noise into electrical power is a well-known idea in the field of energy harvesting. By arranging diodes in parallel and taking advantage of their rectification properties, it's possible to aggregate the rectified DC voltage from each diode, thereby producing electrical power from thermal fluctuations. Additionally, the mention of refrigeration and thermal energy absorption suggests a consideration of the Carnot cycle or thermodynamic cycles related to refrigeration and heat engines. The Carnot cycle sets theoretical limits on the efficiency of heat engines and refrigerators based on temperature differentials, which is fundamental knowledge in thermodynamic physics.
It looks like the S curve for EV will take a little longer because traditional auto makers can't make an affordable EV, and Tesla can't do it all by themself.
Well he didn't predict the pandemic, but batteries have fallen in cost to buy (by major industrial buyer) 20% every year for the last 5 years. And there are robotaxis in limited numbers in China and San Francisco now. Tesla have announced a major reveal of their new "Cyber-cab" on 8th Aug 2024. Many of his laughed at and dismissed predictions have come true: 1. Falling rate of the cost of solar PV. 2. Falling rate in the cost of EVs - in China now the BYD Seagull cost US$15,000 and is a compact car with 300km plus range. Both these predictions have come true.
UA-cam recommended me this video (probably recorded in 2017). Very funny to see how many things this guy got wrong. That's the problem when you take a purely business model approach extracted from the tech/digital world to 1) predict general behaviours and adoptions in the social space; 2) talk about infrastructure evolutions in the physical space - the main assumption here is "business model → behaviour" is a constant. I'm not saying "mono-causal" but not so far from it. Whereas it might be true in a limited medium such as the digital world, in which the role of infrastructure is rendered invisible, it is not true in our physical and social spaces. To exclude specific regional, topographical, socio-cultural constraints (either positive or negative) as causes and limiters of evolution in socio-economic landscape is rather foolish -although expected from this type of profile. Now, to sell "Transport as a service" as disruptive innovation is frankly disingenuous. Numbers like "cars are parked 96% of the time" and "cars are the 2nd largest capital expense" should elicit the bare minimum critical thinking from the audience: it shows this model of transportation is inefficient, on top of being a societal burden (safety, health, cost) and ecologically bankrupt, so how this can be used in an argumentation in favour of even more of the same sh*t? And if you buy the sales pitch - "10x asset utilisation", "40% driving time"- this is not what you, personally, will get out of it. We talk about a few major private companies here. We talk about the full privatisation of an already hegemonic transportation modality -and a very inefficient one at this- with high potential for a lock-in effect.
I'm saying the same thing. When Seba says that in the future everything will be (simply put): battery-powered, everything autonomous & on-demand and everything will be privately-owned fleets, he is also suggests that things like public transportation should be privatized. Well, *NOT* everything is meant to be a privatized cashcow & *NOT* everything needs a battery, damn it! 🤷♂️😒 Not to mention 2 things: *NO* mention of the best actual transportation mode *(railways)* and *there are* actually people that drive 500K miles their own car. 🙄
Look at the energy transformation that has been occurring in places like Australia and elsewhere; the fall in battery costs, not to mention the dramatic falls in solar; etc. Some of the dates might be awry, but the pandemic did have something of a global impact. The reality is that transport will be and is being disrupted, while energy already is. Even if full autonomous driving is not on the horizon, fully autonomous trains are now common. Back in the 70s the Limits to Growth report was widely ridiculed because of erroneous time scales, but is now seen in a very different light. Anyway, the main gist of his argument is that exponential or disruptive change is nearly always underestimated, primarily because Governments and ‘experts’ use linear models for their predictions.
@@chrislockhartsmith9469 I know about autonomous trains and metros & I got your point. They are a briliant idea 👌. But my point is: *One solution DOESN'T fit to all problems!*
I guess my point is that the talk is more about the process of exponential change or disruption, as he likes to call it, rather than solutions per se. The predictions are derived from analysis rather than a futurist’s imagination; this what makes his argument compelling.
22:16 Clean Energy Action (Boulder, Colorado) banner 1:03:05 "it's 2017" - so this is an UNCREDITED COPY☹️😡 of CEA award program video recorded by Colorado Renewable Energy Society (@CORenewable) CRES at CU Boulder
I think Tony’s presentation is very interesting but self driving vehicle sharing will run into the same problem we have today with private vehicles which is that everyone has to use them at the same time for commuting to work.
Not everyone is commuting at exactly the same time. It will be at most 50% of the total car fleet actually driving on the street at the same time, likely much less. Especially with hybrid work where people don't have to go to the office every day.
Framework to understanding technology disruption. Bottom line 15% of all energy used is electricity. 100% electricity is X7 more electricity. If grid electricity, X7 more national grid capacity. National grid built over 100years. National grid is fragile. Blackouts. National grid is extremely expensive. National grid $1million per km for construction costs. National grid is millions and millions of km. NATIONAL GRID is $TRILLIONs, so X7 is bigger than the GDP. Plus grid generation $. National grid is EXTREMELY EXPENSIVE. Rooftop solar PV does not need more grid. EVs will be parked 23hrs every day. Vehicles drive building to building. Home battery 10kWh, $15,000 EVs big battery 100kWh, FREE with vehicles. EV battery liquid temperature management is extending battery life cycles by decades. Petrochemical industry will need fossil fuels and so a little fossil fuels in emergency will be nothing. The UTILITY FACTOR for EVs will be unbeatable.
It never fails to amaze me how China is capable of such long term planning, such foresight and most importantly implementation of their plans 👏👏👏The speaker must have been present on the meetings when the Chinese were planning on their pivot to green energy 🤣🤣🤣
![The Great Transformation [Part 1] - Patterns of Change, Key Technologies & #PhaseChangeDisruption](/img/n.gif)
Don’t miss your chance to hire Tony Seba for your event or conference! Simply contact Champions Speakers to secure your top speaker:
champions-speakers.co.uk/contact
He keeps saying "by 2020" ... I wish people would place a date on these videos.
Tony was speaking at an event in NYC I think. It was in 2017..
I’ve seen this one before as well, the poster is looking for views and revenue.
Hey actually said this year 2017, yep totally agree. Annoying, still interesting, even if his predictions are about 3 years out. Way better than anyone else
He said 2017 several times😂
That’s why I only watch the videos on his channel. These videos are just repeats videos that he already did.
His latest video has this title “"The Great Transformation" - TAQA 20th Anniversary Celebration / Dhahran, Saudi Arabia [16 Oct 2023]”
And it’s very good
He’s absolutely right about the disruptions coming. I don’t understand why people are so hung up over whether his time estimates are off by a few years. Even a decade off! So what? MASSIVE disruption is coming exactly as he predicts. Like gravity. Nobody can stop it because it’s all based on well understood cost and technology curves. Deal with it.
Precisely. No one is missing late charges at Blockbuster
His time-line is way off. I believe most of what he says will happen, but not until the 2040s. Big Oil / Utilities, governments and other corporations have to much to lose to let this change happen to fast.
@@jefferysurratt5650, I think 2040’s is a bit pessimistic simply because the cost curves so clearly favor SWB that even greater fossil fuel subsidizing won’t be enough to change the fundamental economics. And exponential growth can be quite stunning in terms of the speed of market domination. But I agree that 2030 is aggressive. Guess we’ll have to wait and see how long it really takes: 2030’s or 2040’s.
He makes special mention of Tesla and Nividia . If you had listened then and invested in both, you would have done insanely well. This presentation has aged VERY well.
I'm skeptical about one thing. Most people go to work at the same time more or less. How this is solved in his model ?
I think by the time we have full self driving cars we'll also have robots in mass so that takes care of the work commute problem.
Well look at the rise of home working. But yes, rush hour will be the peak the system has to work for.
You can share vehicles, automatic busses.
Very old video, but a classic. FSD prediction way off, but a lot of progress has been made since 2017, lately because of the new disruptor that has arisen: advanced ML (with the name inflated to AI). And that’s in the early part of the steep part of the S curve.
Tesla won't have Level 5 in a few years. It's not close now, and no evidence it's improving fast enough for such a high level of safety any time soon. You don't know that FSD is in the early phase of the steep S curve. It's quite possible that the cheap camera sensors and bad maps will put a low ceiling on how good FSD can be.
A real Level 5 car in a large fleet would have to be able to safely drive around a big city for tens of millions of miles between any bad failures, and not have repeating similar bad failures, or it won't be allowed to go driverless in any state because of federal recalls, lawsuits, horrible press, and violating state driving laws, even in Texas and Florida.
Hard to predict J curve
Tesla says that they will have it next year.
@@timsiener LOL this comment is underrated
@@charliedoyle7824that comment aged even worse than this video. Look at the just released FSD 12.5. it's made huge leaps.
I'm working in the bakken oil field. It's 2024 and this guy just said I would be out of a job 3 years ago. I wonder what eles he's wrong about.
2030 not 2021
2024 and the BYD Seagull costs 10K USD. The only problem that you can't buy it for 10K in Europe cause it's not available or import tariffs gonna make it cost 20K!
2017 presentation. While directionally correct, I think Tony was a little too optimistic by about 5 years (i.e., looks like most of his projections will occur by 2035, not 2030)
Oooooold video
As this was from 2017 and before Covid I think some of his target dates are been postponed by about 2 to 3 years. But it seems pretty realistic with all electric cars by 2030 to 2035 but EV Autonomous Taxis will take longer in my opinion maybe 2035.
When IBM was ready to launch their first IBM PC they made a study and estimated that the total market potential for PC's in the USA would be less than one million units. that's why they did not want to build their own operating system, and went for Microsoft as Bill Gates was only asking a few dollars per unit sold for it's MS DOS !
For those who complain about an “old” video. . .
This is Called ”postdiction”
Tony has pretty much nailed it.
Not sure he's on the money regarding energy costs especially relating to charging EVs for instance. In the UK it's costing a lot more for public charging per mile than petrol.
Whatever you call it, it sucks to not mention it. It should be right in the title.▼
@@ronaldgarrison8478can’t argue with you on that. But. .. I’m watching it to refresh my 80-year old memory. . .
He said most new cars will be EV by 2025, EVs currently are 8% of new car sales
Globally, EV sales were 16.5 percent in 2023. Almost a 30% increase from the 2022 sales. China passed Japan as the largest global exporter of passenger vehicles.
Am I wrong in thinking when Tony said there will be 80% less cars on the road, he actually means 80% less cars parked in either public or private lots... seems like more of a benefit to cities & providing companies than individuals owning their own autonomous electric vehicles, especially if they'll be so cheap. But please tell me why i'm dumb
When he says on the road he means in circulation. So if a city has 1000 cars, most parked, say 900 parked and 100 being actively driven, there'll be 200 cars, 100 charging or being serviced and still 100 on the road.
Ownership will move to a community model - like Uber with fractional ownership and no driver.
7 years old - 2017 for all who wonder, what a mess
if amrerican pay 1$ per day for their whole power consumption if they store it during off peak time ?
I bet this will be far more than 10 kWh which is the average here. And we pay 3,6 $ for a day
This vid is from around 2018.
More likely in April 2016 when Model 3 pre-orders hit 300,000+.
@@williammoore413 He says it's in early 2017, when he quotes Elon about FSD driving across the USA by the end of 2017, which Tony says that's "by the end of this year".
@@charliedoyle7824, yes the famous “next year” Elon Musk got established in 2016. Fully autonomous - next year.
This video from 2017
It is human nature to hang on to what we are used to. We just don't like to change. Our culture is more regressive than this S curve model.
Yes but when something makes sense, then progress is inevitable. For example, automobiles, TV and cell phones all took about 10 years to be adopted.
Initially, Printing Press also led to thousands of false stories of witches and led to thousands of witch-hunts and massacres.
The video is from 2017. Even Google/YT would know and could put a date.
It seems like the golden age for renewables is over in places that already use a lot of volatile generation like Denmark, Germany and California.
In California NEM 3.0 seems to have killed that entire business, rooftop installations have dropped by 80% - this was not a disruption, it was a business model based on other peoples money. The problem with solar generation in an area is that all generators have the same feed-in profile, they generate electricity at the same time of the day. NEM 1.0 and 2.0 have forced electricity companies to buy these kWh's at noon for a high price wheras the kWh at the spot or day ahead market was already close to worthless due to an ever increasing amount of installations.
This rises the system costs of electricity as California is now one of the most expensive places for end consumers in terms of costs per kWh in the US - how so, if everything became so cheap? (It's the system cost that matters...)
China sits on top of a huge pile of overcapacity for solar panel production - 50% too much! Why? Because the world became a bit cautious when looking at the chaos in Germany, California, Denmark or South Australia.
Wind energy actually became more expensive over the last few years, the times of ever dropping price curves are over - the UK had to increas the CFDs for offshore generation from 44 GBP/MWh to 72 GBP/MWh. The largest wind farm in Sweden, Markbygen Ett, has faced a bancruptcy - how so?
The battery-storage-disruption is nothing more than a myth. Tony Seba does not get it right here as he wants to draw a conclusion of the possible price for battery cells and the system price for battery storage. A Tesla Megapack is still today at $262/kWh - to store one day of electricity in Germany (1.5 TWh) upfront costs of $393 Billion would have to be spend. One day. We just had a Dunkelflaute lasting two weeks - weeks, not a day. And heating and transport are not even close to be called "fully electrified". Wishful thinking.
Even DIY-systems like I built (mine, for friends etc.) with quality inverters (the blue ones from a famous Dutch company paired with black 48V LFP battery modules starting with P... ) are between 250 - 390€/kWh - a luxury item, nothing more.
And a home battery actually works by cannibalizing the grid - conventional generation would still be required.
Nothing will be obsolete by 2030 - we do see a massive deployment of nuclear energy that is superb in terms of EROEI, low use of raw materials, conventional synchronous machines with black start capabilities + control of reactive power for transmission lines.
And nuclear is still way cheaper - let's dive in deeper:
We want 6.4 GW of dispatchable power. As wind energy has higher capacity factors around the globe, we will chose wind as source of generation.
To power an electrolyzer (as battery is way too expensive - seen above) we need to oversize the wind farm - 25 GW. That is 60 Billion €.
The next thing is the electrolysis - no one has ever built them commercially so we assume 1 Billion € for 1 GW and we need 20 GW - that is 20 Billion €.
Quite cheap are 6GW of gas plants (for hydrogen) for 5 Billion €. We are at 85 Billion € at the moment. Hydrogen storage would require another Billion as gas cavern storage is often too small.
That is 86 Billion € for 6.4 GW of firm power or 13,43 Billion €/GW
Bulgaria has bought two Westinghouse AP1000 for 13,2 Billion € or 5.89 Billion €/GW.
(An AP1000 has an output of 1,12 GW.)
The AP1000 last at least 60 years, probably 80 years. The wind park will last probably 25 years. No more words needed. You can buy the AP1000 already, hydrogen read gas plants, mega electrolyzers and other things do only work in an R&D-environment. The Onkalo spent nuclear fule repository has only cost 1.4 Billion €.
Cheap renewable electricity - what a myth. It'll work on your roof but nothing else should be used. What a waste of materials, man hours and money.
I've got a Dyson hoover it works great
😂
Tony is way off about autonomous vehicles. He didn't understand the difficulty of the problem.
Ok he is off by 5 years there.
He got the EV timing very wrong due to misinterpretation of battery data. The battery efficacy is based on ideal ambient conditions, which do not exist "on the road".
Hello Tony, I read your books and am a fan of your work.
Your lectures do not forecast heavy constraints that might slow down disruption. In our country 'The Netherlands' to grid is certainly one of them and I suspect we are not the only ones. I must say we do not build enough storage capacity as your models predict, so that might be part of the answer.
I also wonder why our government plans for so much hydrogen power for industries, while you seem to stick to electric only.
Would appreciate comments on the role of the grid hampering progress.
Hydrogen could be used to store energy. I mean extra electricity that is not consumed. What Seba calls superpower. You can either store it in caverns as we do for methane or use it in heavy trucks, etc And why not even just burn it to provide electricity during the short periods of time there's not enough electricity produced; avoiding fossile fuels use.
If you’re as big of a fan of Tony Seba as you say you are - you would know that this is not his UA-cam channel. His actual UA-cam channel is called “Tony Seba.” This video is just some knucklehead uploading Tony’s video from 2017 and pretending it is new. Don’t worry, everything is up-to-date though, nothing that has to do with autonomy has changed since 2017 - fully autonomous Tesla are definitely coming “next year.”
Holland is using hydrogen? Good grief that's a horrible idea.
Welcome to the future 🙂
Interesting lecture, to think on technologies and disruption, but honestly he didn't predict one single date correctly. My doubt still is wheter it's a question of time (5 or 10 years later it will happend) or actually never.
The latest figures in this are 2016
Do people highly educated in thermodynamic physics know of a higher consideration of nature that overrides accepting that diodes can rectify Johnson - Nyquest thermal noise power and, given the orderliness of consistent orientation in parallel, aggregate a DC residue from each diode into electrical power at any scale coproduced with refrigeration of equivalent thermal energy absorbtion?
The idea of using diodes to rectify Johnson-Nyquist thermal noise to produce electrical power is related to the concept of stochastic resonance and energy harvesting.
Stochastic resonance refers to the phenomenon where a system's response to a weak input signal is enhanced by random noise. In the context of thermodynamic physics, this can involve harnessing thermal fluctuations (thermal noise) to produce useful work, such as generating electrical power.
The concept of using rectifying diodes to convert thermal noise into electrical power is a well-known idea in the field of energy harvesting. By arranging diodes in parallel and taking advantage of their rectification properties, it's possible to aggregate the rectified DC voltage from each diode, thereby producing electrical power from thermal fluctuations.
Additionally, the mention of refrigeration and thermal energy absorption suggests a consideration of the Carnot cycle or thermodynamic cycles related to refrigeration and heat engines. The Carnot cycle sets theoretical limits on the efficiency of heat engines and refrigerators based on temperature differentials, which is fundamental knowledge in thermodynamic physics.
It looks like the S curve for EV will take a little longer because traditional auto makers can't make an affordable EV, and Tesla can't do it all by themself.
Major music blasting moments.▼
So much for a "framework" to predict stuff, considering most of it turned out to be way off.
Actually its right on track internationally.
Curves, S, J, Bathtub, high failure, then no failure, then high failure, with chips failing ???????
It may not be a software problem for FSD 😕 😮
2024 now and nothing predicted to happen by 2020 has happened.
I think he placed too much value in Elon Musk's promises! :)
@@lightningslim
🤥 Elon Musk 🎯
God you are dumb…..carry on being the haters….and you will stay poor 😂😂
Well he didn't predict the pandemic, but batteries have fallen in cost to buy (by major industrial buyer) 20% every year for the last 5 years. And there are robotaxis in limited numbers in China and San Francisco now. Tesla have announced a major reveal of their new "Cyber-cab" on 8th Aug 2024. Many of his laughed at and dismissed predictions have come true:
1. Falling rate of the cost of solar PV.
2. Falling rate in the cost of EVs - in China now the BYD Seagull cost US$15,000 and is a compact car with 300km plus range.
Both these predictions have come true.
UA-cam recommended me this video (probably recorded in 2017).
Very funny to see how many things this guy got wrong.
That's the problem when you take a purely business model approach extracted from the tech/digital world to 1) predict general behaviours and adoptions in the social space; 2) talk about infrastructure evolutions in the physical space - the main assumption here is "business model → behaviour" is a constant. I'm not saying "mono-causal" but not so far from it.
Whereas it might be true in a limited medium such as the digital world, in which the role of infrastructure is rendered invisible, it is not true in our physical and social spaces.
To exclude specific regional, topographical, socio-cultural constraints (either positive or negative) as causes and limiters of evolution in socio-economic landscape is rather foolish -although expected from this type of profile.
Now, to sell "Transport as a service" as disruptive innovation is frankly disingenuous. Numbers like "cars are parked 96% of the time" and "cars are the 2nd largest capital expense" should elicit the bare minimum critical thinking from the audience: it shows this model of transportation is inefficient, on top of being a societal burden (safety, health, cost) and ecologically bankrupt, so how this can be used in an argumentation in favour of even more of the same sh*t?
And if you buy the sales pitch - "10x asset utilisation", "40% driving time"- this is not what you, personally, will get out of it. We talk about a few major private companies here. We talk about the full privatisation of an already hegemonic transportation modality -and a very inefficient one at this- with high potential for a lock-in effect.
My golly, what do you mean, sir. I just watched the “Electric Viking” UA-cam channel and he said that Tony Seba is an absolute prophet. 🔮
I'm saying the same thing. When Seba says that in the future everything will be (simply put): battery-powered, everything autonomous & on-demand and everything will be privately-owned fleets, he is also suggests that things like public transportation should be privatized. Well, *NOT* everything is meant to be a privatized cashcow & *NOT* everything needs a battery, damn it! 🤷♂️😒
Not to mention 2 things: *NO* mention of the best actual transportation mode *(railways)* and *there are* actually people that drive 500K miles their own car. 🙄
Look at the energy transformation that has been occurring in places like Australia and elsewhere; the fall in battery costs, not to mention the dramatic falls in solar; etc. Some of the dates might be awry, but the pandemic did have something of a global impact. The reality is that transport will be and is being disrupted, while energy already is. Even if full autonomous driving is not on the horizon, fully autonomous trains are now common.
Back in the 70s the Limits to Growth report was widely ridiculed because of erroneous time scales, but is now seen in a very different light.
Anyway, the main gist of his argument is that exponential or disruptive change is nearly always underestimated, primarily because Governments and ‘experts’ use linear models for their predictions.
@@chrislockhartsmith9469 I know about autonomous trains and metros & I got your point. They are a briliant idea 👌. But my point is: *One solution DOESN'T fit to all problems!*
I guess my point is that the talk is more about the process of exponential change or disruption, as he likes to call it, rather than solutions per se. The predictions are derived from analysis rather than a futurist’s imagination; this what makes his argument compelling.
22:16 Clean Energy Action (Boulder, Colorado) banner 1:03:05 "it's 2017" - so this is an UNCREDITED COPY☹️😡 of CEA award program video recorded by Colorado Renewable Energy Society (@CORenewable) CRES at CU Boulder
Aged like milk.
I think Tony’s presentation is very interesting but self driving vehicle sharing will run into the same problem we have today with private vehicles which is that everyone has to use them at the same time for commuting to work.
I think by the time we have full self driving cars we'll also have robots in mass so that takes care of the work commute problem.
Not everyone is commuting at exactly the same time. It will be at most 50% of the total car fleet actually driving on the street at the same time, likely much less. Especially with hybrid work where people don't have to go to the office every day.
Framework to understanding technology disruption.
Bottom line
15% of all energy used is electricity.
100% electricity is X7 more electricity.
If grid electricity, X7 more national grid capacity.
National grid built over 100years.
National grid is fragile. Blackouts.
National grid is extremely expensive.
National grid $1million per km for construction costs.
National grid is millions and millions of km.
NATIONAL GRID is $TRILLIONs, so X7 is bigger than the GDP. Plus grid generation $.
National grid is EXTREMELY EXPENSIVE.
Rooftop solar PV does not need more grid.
EVs will be parked 23hrs every day.
Vehicles drive building to building.
Home battery 10kWh, $15,000
EVs big battery 100kWh, FREE with vehicles.
EV battery liquid temperature management is extending battery life cycles by decades.
Petrochemical industry will need fossil fuels and so a little fossil fuels in emergency will be nothing.
The UTILITY FACTOR for EVs will be unbeatable.
This is ridiculous
It never fails to amaze me how China is capable of such long term planning, such foresight and most importantly implementation of their plans 👏👏👏The speaker must have been present on the meetings when the Chinese were planning on their pivot to green energy 🤣🤣🤣
Anybody relying on McKinsey advice is lost...
So far off. They didn't realize how quickly the public would catch on to the EV scam. Clean energy 🤣🤣🤣
Go Trump...
UTTER DELUSIONAL NONSENSE.
Famous educational lecture repeated many times. Should be school curriculum everywhere.
This is 5 yr old stuff totally unworthy of watching as of today
*8yrs later DYSON still never made a EV and haven't heard anything about it either.*
They cancelled it about two years ago.