One thing I find fascinating is how disruption arises from changing conditions. You can’t force a disruption, and you can’t prevent a disruption. It crosses very quickly from “impossible” to “inevitable”.
I’m not sure you can’t prevent one. In fact I’ll go further and say that, without China there not playing by Western rules, big auto and big oil would have tried to do just that. And probably held back the EV revolution.
@@rctezluh42069 The equilibrium economics that most people mean when they say “market” doesn’t account for disruption. It’s like how Henry Ford supposedly said that if he asked consumers what they wanted, they’d have said “faster horses”. This also means that targeted market optimizations can’t fundamentally change a market. For example, solar power became viable because it was heavily subsidized long enough to get manufacturing economies of scale to kick in. Now it’s cheaper than fossil fuels on merit and subsidies aren’t needed. But equilibrium “market” economics says subsidies are bad, and carbon taxes are better because market. But no politically feasible carbon tax would ever have made solar panels cost competitive (much less a “free market”, which is in no way free). They needed an initial boost to become viable. NOW the market is deciding solar is better, because solar is cheaper - because it is. As an aside, I’m reminded of Peter Thiel’s observation in his book “Zero to One”, that in the theoretically ideal “free market” of economists and politicians, profit is impossible, as perfect competition drives everything to zero. Profit, especially the huge profits that venture capitalists like Thiel seek, are only possible when the competition is imperfect - when there is a unique value proposition that can’t be replicated more cheaply by “competition”.
Did you see him emphasize the Food transformation for this audience? Imagine Saudi Arabia bringing nutritious, protein-rich and tasty (sweet) food at scale at very affordable (near zero) rates to the entire region in maybe 10 years. (Hunger and food scarcity are going to be even more pressing issues as Climate Change progresses.) "Blessed" indeed is the country that is not just the birthplace of an important religion, but also is a huge part in solving one of the most basic and essential of human needs. Another excellent presentation from Tony Seba.
Well Saudi Arabia will lose in Hydrocarbon exports but gain in solar energy and food production. Overall it will be a positive for them because they have been investing big in this new economy already. Well their religous tourism money is not going anywhere.
Tony Seba presenting to Saudis about the energy transition is the meta version of Steve Jobs presenting to a room full of Motorola and Nokia execs about smartphones 😂
The Saudis has been smart about diversification and creating new ways to have a more sustainable economic model. For example they had great strides is agriculture, food production. They were smart enough to have Tony there and they knew about Tony's ideas, so I give them tons of credits.
I think this was one of the best talks given by Tony Seba that I have watched. I recently read the 'Rethinking humanity' thesis which is both inspiring and somewhat of a warning given the recent increase in wars. I do hope he is correct about the disruption that will come in food and agriculture: I think that the other predictions in solar, wind, batteries and EV's are almost unarguable as they are further along their S curve path. To keep hope in our future we need positive narratives so Tony's presentations are a rare oasis of much-needed optimism.
I wonder if she was referring to the possibility that the large number of middle eastern people make them a hostile audience? A lot to lose if oil becomes less relevant. I believe that oil will always have relevance because of chemicals, plastics and lubricants.
@@randallsmith7885I'm not so sure. If Seba and RethinkX are correct with their predictions we'll arrive in an era of overabundance of energy. That also means cheaper production of synthetics from any source, really, even the carbon in the very air we breath.
@@lesbendo6363 I checked the event. It is TAQA 20th anniversary, which is Abu Dhabi’s electric and water utility and are also in the oil and gas business. I have to assume that Their CEO is a forward thinking person who wants to get the executives’ minds thinking about the future.
Exactly, and Tesla is killing it in all those areas. Disruption at it's finest! Which companies are strong in the food disruption (precision fermentation)? Which names should I add to my watch list?
I’ve sent my young adult kids Tony’s videos about 8 months ago with him giving basically the same presentation. The fact it’s TAQA in UAE is hilariously funny. The look on their faces says they don’t believe. See if that group changes anything about their future plans after this. Bet is a Hard no.
He predicted sub-25-dollar oil by 2025 and "it won't go back up." Yet here we are. He predicted no more internal combustion engine vehicles produced by 2025.
@beegdawg007He’s been proven correct so it’s hard to argue with success. Humans negativity bias has also been proven so while you’ve focused on the negative, things like global poverty have reduced dramatically and cost of solar energy has dropped 90%. In my 60 years I’ve heard nothing but doomsday predictions that never come true. It seems no one likes good news.
@@rogerstarkey5390 Actually yes! It is not my inclination to praise the Saudis and other Gulf monarchies, but they are much more forward thinking (as to technologies... much less as to social matters, but it's another topic) than the extremely conservative Americans. Their leaders know very well that oil will not last for much longer...which many Americans do not, from what I can read in the comment sections of YT videos on the topic of EVs.
What I like most about this comment is that it reminds me that humans are still smarter than A.I., since an A.I. wouldn’t understand that you’re being sarcastic.
Tony Seba. Thank you. Humanity saves humanity via cooperation. Long live the mothers that teach brothers and sisters to be loving builders cooperating with each other and to set aside the infantile jealousies or narcissistic greed.
Some folk can see what’s going to happen decades before it happens. In this era it’s Tony Seba doing the predicting, and predominately Elon Musk delivering the disruption, on an EPIC, global scale 👊
Some don't see the evidence even if it is presented in front of their eyes, the predictions he made 10 years ago about prices are now a reality, not fantasies.
@beegdawg007You are absolutely right, I have another number for you: Philip Tetlock once analyzed 82,000 predictions from hundreds of experts, almost none became reality. Why? Our world is a complex machine of many non-linear interferences. One example: The almost effortless expansion of wind energy, onshore wind, came to a grinding stop. Assumptions and fundamentals valid a decade ago have changed, higher interest rates, higher material costs and increased labor costs have a devastating impact on volatile (non dispatchable) energy generation. Europe's biggest onshore wind farm in Sweden has faced a bankruptcy marking it as a possible point of no return for onshore wind energy in many areas. Coming back to Mr. Tetlock's research it is highly likely the proposed solar-wind-battery system will face the same issue of a prediction that will never become true. Battery prices seem to stagnate at a far too high level for a possible grid storage for days (!) of electrical consumption.
Great presentation. There are still MANY ... and I mean MANY people that don't see and understand this idea, even after hearing about it. With the last 10 years now behind us, that should help convince some more ... though holdouts always remain.
This is simply brilliant. People should pay more attention to Tony. ICE manufacturers, AI, manufacturers in general should be watching out. Otherwise, we will have another Blackberrys, Kodak, Motorola etc moments.
By no means EVs will take over so fast in many markets, the infrastructure is not there, especially for many in bigger cities without a dedicated parking lot with a charger. You cannot compare the smartphone disruption with cars - the infrastructure has not changed, cell towers and wall outlets where there before. Don't forget all the mining required for battery materials which could become more expensive with rising demand. Future predictions are always tricky and most are plain wrong, at the moment the wind industry suffers. Tony Seba's predictions will most likely end like those of 82,000 predictions Prof. Tetlock has analyzed between 1987 and 2003: roughly 85% were wrong. Why would this age better?
@@MultiThibor Tony's predictions are much more likely to age well... because what he predicted over 10 years ago came true, to the exact year... and the same forces are at work! Battery materials are plentiful and, if they are not (cobalt is in this case), are already being replaced by other, common and cheap materials. Yes, mining and refining operations have to keep up with the rising demand, and might temporarily become bottlenecks... which will slow the transition by a year or two at most! The automotive transition started in the early 1900s with NO fuel distribution infrastructure, negligible oil production and refining, and hardly any motorable roads, at a time when things were happening much slower than they do now... and it nevertheless happened in a couple of decades. As to city infrastructure, I have two things to remind you: a) Chinese cities have already installed millions of charging stalls all along their streets and within a couple of years, and some cities in Europe are starting doing the same (although not as aggressively), and b) Tony Seba said it himself: the future of urban transport is NOT personal cars but of on-demand transportation, and this will reduce greatly the number of vehicles in cities. After all, owning a vehicle in a large city is an expensive pain in the neck!
@@MultiThibor Infrastructure is as easy as adding an appliance to your home. Most homes have a dryer/electric oven 240V/30-50 amp plug that can add 30-50 miles/hour, even a standard 120V/15 amp plug can give you 30-40 miles overnight. Mining for materials really depends on ever changing battery components, CATL already produces sodium batteries and lithium mining is blowing up all over the world.
@@Rockster1989 In many places around the world people can't park their car on their own spot - like in Europe or Asia. EVs without a home charger are not very pleasent to use for everyone, to be honestly. Adding charger in apartment builings is often difficult.
Great presentation 👏🏼 Thanks for sharing your ideas, and I hope we see them all in Saudi Arabia. A lot of what you said is in Saudi Vision 2030, and I’m sure the rest will be in Vision 2040 🇸🇦❤️
"It is very hard to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on him not understanding it." (Upton Sinclair). That seems to be true even if his salary (or industry, or lifestyle) threatens his kids' future...
This is one of the best "TED-talks" ever on the subject and I'm glad it took place in The Kingdom which as SOME people know owns TWO ELECTRIC CAR BRANDS in Lucid and Ceer... So even they know where future is headed... And for the record, Ceer is partnered with BMW and Foxconn two of the largest names in their respective fields which means this is no backyard experiment. They mean to become MENA's Top Automaker and I fully support them in this goal... If you can't beat 'em? Join 'em!
How much does a car battery cost? After how many years one has to replace the battery? How much does a solar panel cost? In Switzerland to cover a roof with solar panels of an average house it costs 90‘000 $ !!!! And if there is very little sun, in certain areas there‘s lots of fog, no electricity can be generated through a solar panel….
Been following Tony since 2017. Spot on! Question for Tony is whether disruptive patterns will impact social constructs, like conservatism or religions that resist technological advancement?
AI might be "new", but many other disruptions happen in the "background". SWB still provides electricity, no reason to reject it (except windfarms). Precision fermentation still provides proteins (as a precursor for B2B, not as an end product) and your new dairy products feel the same as traditional ones.
During #PhaseChangeDisruptions, new organizing systems emerge that outcompete legacy ones. #OrganizingSystems include prevailing models, belief systems, political, social systems, and so on.
@@tonysebaor more simply put (as you hinted often enough in the presentation) it's the economy stupid (or rather personal well being, if you are right, is there even a need for an economy as we know it)
Just found your Video from the speech from 2017 about PV and EV adoption on Champion Speakers YT channel. Please make a new video now. Just a PPT with you explaining your view on the world now. You nailed it, that was such a great prediction. Can’t wait to hear more from you. I subscribed hoping for more !❤
IMO Saudi Audience was listening to him very carefully and respectfully. They understand that within 10-15 years their profits from oil will shrink. On the other hand they are full of money and Mr Seba's visionary could give them the direction in which sectors to move capital and invest in new technologies in order to achieve biggest profits.
You look at the faces in the audience. What are they thinking? Who is going to be ready for the future, I wonder? Will the shift in technology go with the shift in power? Will Asia be the new superpower? Will Africa transition faster than we with our current technology? As always a great presentation!
This has been my view for a long time. The term "Superpower" will apply to many previously "poor" regions with the resources (sun/ wind) and the foresight to invest early (Morocco as one example) . It's going to be interesting watching the stance of US politicians in 2024. Their success and subsequent actions will have huge impact on the status of the US moving forward. If you're not in the game, you can't win the game.
@@rogerstarkey5390 Germany has "Superpower" sometimes - when wind and sun feed more in the grid than they consume. This electricity is then send abroad for a negative price, yes, Germany is paying them to take useless electricity. By the way, the wind industry is struggeling at the moment - no more superpower? The future will be nuclear and renewables in a 50/50 share, the rest is simply absurd for any industrialized nation.
He has been right so far, and my gut tells me he will continue to be right, still my brain is telling me, "he can't be right, it is to much.." I need to tell my brain to shut up 😄
Hey, Tony - A judgement on the debt brake means that Germany has reached a peak. Either slow down the transformation and risk prosperity or speed up the transformation and create new prosperity. Please use your reach and your network to explain the unleashing of market forces to the Federal Chancellor, the Vice-Chancellor and the Finance Minister once again. After all, all three are "liberal" at heart - the programme actually suits them perfectly.
Germany will fail with its energy transition, manufacturing, heavy and chemical industries are fleeing that place, populism is on the rise due to high energy costs. Even Meyer-Burger (pv manufacturing) will close down their factory in Saxony - how so, if solar energy is almost free? They could even install their own panels...😂😂😂
Regarding protein PF he is referring to the company in Finland called Solar food that will go commercial 2024. Solein protein out of thin air “We lead by example. We started the construction of Factory 01 in 2021. We will be ready to produce the world’s most sustainable protein in 2024. And this factory is only the first of many to come.”
Is there a link to get the slides so you can spend more time on them? I'll be interested to see a blind taste test and nutritional analysis comparison of a cow steak vs. a precision fermentation steak!
Livestock as a part of regenerative agriculture is strongly required to quickly regenerate disturbed by historical agricultural activities topsoil biodiversity and fertility, improve heat and water stress adaptation of ecosystems by mimicking natural processes. Precision fermentation will not occur if it can not supported by resources from agriculture (regenerative one). It is needed to think about double disruption and divergence of current agriculture land and life degraded practises into regenerative agriculture (to obtain row material) and precision fermentation (to produce applicable food)
Right on! As much as I appreciate Tony Seba, and as much I owe to him (HE made me aware, in early 2013, of the potential of a start-up company, then called Tesla Motors, in which I significantly invested...plenty early enough!), as much I must say that there is something missing in his presentations about the disruption of agriculture. And that is the indispensable role of livestock (in extensive, obviously not intensive breeding and raising) in agriculture in general, and for many many regions and cultures in particular.
Interestingly - aside from oil disruption, Saudi at one time had the second largest cattle herd in the world - they used underground aquifers to supply water ( which is running out) - and that was in a desert !. That was to make milk - which they consume a lot of.. If they have an alternative ( precision fermentation) - they have plenty of money ( ummm oil !) to create an industry to make it....
#PrecisionFermentation is a potential multi-trillion dollar industry to make not just food but also cosmetics, medicine, materials and more. Disruptions come from the edge - and this opportunity is still up for grabs.
@@tonyseba I think food is a problem area in your talk. The human body adapts slowly to changes and has wonderfully adapted to particularly meat and fat. Even if certain proteins are exactly duplicated, the whole package of, for example, a piece of fatty meat will include enzymes, phytoneutrients, and much more which we cannot "fake" in a petrie dish. We cannot really outsmart nature because we ARE nature, and are deeply intertwined with nature. Many people are curing their bodies in profound ways by moving away from processed foods and back to natural food, and the more natural the better. I hope this makes may point clearly.
I'm very hopeful for a future where transportation and food are cheaper, as communications are today. This will make UBI viable and life way less miserable for humanity.
Why "first"? Peace will further expand in parallel to the diff. disruptions mentioned by Tony. The developed world is already extremely peaceful today compared to it's history. Once the diff. continents are energy independent (thanks to Solar, Wind, and Battery), there are much less reasons for wars and much less audience for extremism. Btw, China and Russia will collapse within 10 years (for demographics and other reasons) and with them all communist countries and dictators. Giving room for Democratic nations and increased global harmony.
Some countries hav already succeeded in doing so, but given the nature of mankind, it will take a few more centuries to spread out, if ever! So, it is definitely NOT going to come first!
For those disbelievers in what he is saying, look back at how the cost of long-distance calls has dropped. 40-50 years ago, you could have a monthly bill of hundreds of pre-inflated dollars, now the cost is essentially zero.
Excellent analogy!!!! I didn't think about that one... thanks, I'll owe you royalties! As a foreign student in the USA in the late 70s, I was limited to calling my parents once a month for a few minutes. Nowadays, I could have a visual call with them for an hour a day, every day... if we had that much to tell teach others... and that would cost us NOTHING!
Seba doesn’t deal with the limitations of the grid delivering 10x the current electricity demand for electric cars. The number of transformers needed far outstrips manufacturing capability.
For decades I bought almost exclusively Toyotas. However, Toyota still seems to be figuring out which new evolving technology is going to win. Despite the fact that the winner is now obviously EVs. I'm afraid my once favorite car company will soon be non-existent or tiny shadow of its former self. I am of the opinion that this transition is going to happen fast. The EV technology once mature is so much simpler than an internal combustion engine vehicle. It replaced hundreds or thousands of complex parts for engine, transmission, cooling, electrical generation, electric storage, pollution control with a far simpler system of a battery bank, one or two electric motors and some electronics. Even the 12v or 48v power for accessories can simply be drawn from the main battery through well understood power electronics. So EVs will soon be cheaper and better than traditional (ICE) cars. Traditional car manufactures are not well positioned to succeed. They'll have to walk away from their current products to go 100% EV within the next couple years and their stock holders will never allow them to do it. Nor do they have the battery, motor, electronics and software knowledge to transition fast enough. By the time they're competitive with the Chinese EV makers and Tesla they'll be a shadow of their former selves or out of business in my opinion.
Modern engines have an incredible number of finely machined parts made at low cost. Electric motors are so simple in comparison, and batteries have no moving parts. The cost advantage of converting concentrated chemical energy into movement through combustion will be beat with simpler manufacturing and few moving parts.
@@chrisgaul866 Absolutely! 21st century technologies competing with 19th century ones (even if much refined by over a century worth of engineering)... a pretty safe bet!
Toyota CEOs current and in the past are what Tony calls ‘Incumbent mindset’. Stuck on ICE with no common sense to realize hydrogen and fuel cells are going to be bit players in the foreseeable future. Dark times ahead for Toyota.
For those of you who don't know Tony yet, of course I recommend listening to his conference. But then I also recommend that you watch the video again this time focusing on the attitude of the attendance. You can see slightly mocking smile, arms crossed on chests, disbelief on face expression,... This is the incumbent syndrom at work.
I definitely did notice that. I guess when you're entire existence and generation of wealth is seriously under threat, they were probably planning his 'accidental' demise...
Could the Saudis stretch out the EV adoption curve by increasing supply and lowering oil prices to the $40 to $50 per barrel range? I would think that this strategy would slow the EV adoption rate … especially for SUV and Truck users. A drop in diesel prices would be a big help to curb inflation since it powers boats, trains and trucks.
Most people in the audience looked very pale after this presentation --> energy cost evolving to zero implies that some parts of the world become irrelevant (again)... Scary for some, but probably true.
The Saudis know that they have all their eggs in one basket so it only makes sense that they are the most interested in an alternate energy source. Especially one involving the sun when they live in a giant dessert.
Curious to see grid disruption. Disruptive use of electricity on a very aging grid will literally cause rupture... not to mention energy needed to replace fossil fuel based energy.
Tony giving this presentation from about a year ago to TAQA (in 11 countries for power, oil and gas) in UAE is hilariously funny. The look on their faces says they don’t believe. Bet: will they change their biz model after this? …I say a hard no.
The Saudi minister of oil stuff some years ago: the stone age didn't end because of the lack of stones. They are aware, it's the speed by which it happens that is the mentally hard thing to grasp because we humans have difficulty understanding exponentials.
@@christianvanderstap6257 The world will burn oil for decades to come, decades! From 2004 to 2022, global spending on wind and solar totaled $4.1 trillion, yet hydrocarbon use increased 3.4x faster.
What I fear, is the effect of geopolitical disruption in the absence of a de facto rules based global order. Historically, humanity has *never* managed power disruptions without violence and war on a scale matching the scale of the disruption. In that context, the current state of the rules-based global order is beyond worrisome. Even worse, the cheerleaders of geopolitical "multipolarity", who, obviously, have no clue about how multipolarity always equal war within a realist framework (as in the absence of rules-based order) appears to be gaining ground, while at the same time failing to understand that the only path they offer, is the short-cut to nuclear catastrophe.
I sometimes worry that the Rethink forecast will move faster if it is under the radar. The future unrolls for reasons of purely economic self-interest, free so far of the obstructionists attacking to slow it down.
I would like to hear more about food production. It's interesting that Kimball Musk is involved in innovative food production while Elon is in Energy and robotics. I would love to hear some speculation on what they might be up to.
The one fly in the ointment I see regarding the Chinese having made sub $15,000 electric cars available is that I doubt these will be allowed for sale in the collective West without substantial tariffs.
There's an even bigger fly in the ointment... China has both control of critical resources, and are leading in many related technologies. . Companies in "The Collective West" must first *survive* before they can compete. China is already hinting "play nice or you don't get .... Graphite, finished cells, etc" .
Correct! But, once they have tested those markets, and after establishing a distribution foothold, they will invest into local plants and produce their EVs in Europe as well as in North America... just like the Japanese did!
As demand declines the most expensive wells will be shut down IE deep water Production and demand cycles will continue with more wells shut down Eventually the cheapest oil will survive Saudi oil can almost be pumped into your car About 2 bucks a barrel is their cost
Then why is Germany going through a crisis with almost 30,000 wind turbines and more than 60 GW of pv? Sun and wind are free, turning them into a reliable supply of electricity 24/7 definitely is not. Wind power is actually rising in costs and many projects are canceled. Sun and wind are medieval sources of energy with an extremely low power density requiring vast amounts of raw materials like copper and steel to utilize them. Since generation and consumption (not all places are suitable for wind turbines) are often far away the distribution of power needs enormous upgrades. In Germany the "grid development plan" estimates 237 Billion (!) € of investments into the 380 kV grid, the 110 kV grid needs upgrades in the "triple digit Billion €" range. Financing this over consumer bills until 2030 would increase the kWh price beyond 50 ct - totally insane 😮. Presentations like these are only looking at isolated aspects and are not at the whole system. France is building 14 new NPPs from 2024 onwards - but, hey, they will be disrupted... Bulgaria, Ukraine, Poland and Slovenia are signing a memorandum of understanding with Westinghouse for their AP-1000 plant. Everything is wrong about them...😅😅😅
This is what Takurus is doing -> Takurus aims to develop intelligent maglev highway solutions as we approach the acceleration of a smart road innovation’s S-curve.
@tonyseba Liked it, but a half hour is too short for containing all you have to say. It's great for a review, but if it's the first time someone has seen this info, it becomes too disjoint. 1 hour works better.
Those poor OPEC grifters must have found all this quite upsetting. To hear that their half a century of bleeding the world dry with artificially high oil prices would soon come to an end must have been just awful for them.
People don’t understand China. It’s funny. They have limited oil and gas reserves but lots of coal and renewable potential. So they figured to give them a stronger strategic position, they need to become independent of oil imports from the Arabian gulf. As that is their biggest vulnerability in a fight with the USA. So by going all electric they kill two birds with one stone.
1400 years ago Arabs take/translate western (Greek) knowledge and run/improve on them. Now is good time to repeat and not only in energy. Go for it. It is your destiny.
00:05 Los próximos 15 a 20 años serán los más perturbadores de la historia. 03:07 Las tecnologías disruptivas conducen a cambios de fase en la industria. 08:58 Las personas y las empresas inteligentes a menudo no ven la próxima disrupción debido a su mentalidad tradicional. 11:36 La industria del transporte está experimentando una gran disrupción debido al auge de los vehículos eléctricos. 17:18 La transición a la energía solar y eólica se está produciendo según lo previsto, lo que se traduce en fuentes de energía más baratas. 19:48 El diseño de sistemas de energía eólica centrándose en maximizar la generación de energía durante todo el año puede alimentar varias regiones con un sistema de batería eólica 100% solar. 24:51 El costo del PF ha disminuido significativamente y se prevé que alcance el dólar por kilo en 2030. 27:24 Las proteínas dulces son mil veces más dulces que el azúcar de caña, lo que las convierte en un posible sustituto del azúcar. 00:00 TAQA celebra su 20º aniversario en Dhahran, Arabia Saudita
Excellent work Tony. One argument an electrical engineer mentioned to me was the bad state of the old cooper electrical grid on every continent. That infrastructure needs massive upgrades to delivery from the solar farms and megapacks. What's your response?
Fragment ("invert") the "grid". . Solar on buildings, local Wind. Megapack at the end of the street/ within the factory. . Local distribution. . Tesla Texas as an example. (When complete, 70,000 panels, 65 Megapacks) . You can still have a distribution grid, but working "back to front" as required, with energy being sent *by* the end user to the grid. Very much like the internet. One node fails, there are other connections to supplement the supply.
Transmission takes a long time to build. It is needed to move energy from where it is generated to where it is consumed. With solar panels every roof and parking lot can be a power generator next to the load. It may be cheaper to construct a big solar array on a greenfield site, but if the grid cannot carry electricity to loads the lower projects meaningless. Put solar in the already built environment and society saves the time and cost of transmission.
This is more like the work of an utopian than rather someone with sensible knowledge about electrical grids and power distribution. Germany alone has estimated costs of 600 Billion (!) € to uprade their grid to work with 100% renewables, that is simply absurd. What many people without knowledge do not know are required conditions to operate an electrical grid safely and reliable: 1. spinning reserve or instantaneos reserve for immediate frequency support 2. black start capabilities (wind and solar need a grid to synchronize, in Europe pv inverters have to follow the DIN VDE 4105 which prohibits island operation) 3. control of reactive power Solar is useless in many of these terms, making grids unstable if it is the main source. Despite of falling prices, batteries are insanly expensive even for one night of storage on a grid scale - this includes transport and industry as well. At the moment, Germany has roughly 10 GWh of battery storage. For one night in the summer (without wind, sometimes common in heat waves) they would need roughly 500 GWh - 50 times the actual capacity. Material use? Staff the put them in service? Sounds a bit too ambitious. Tony made predictions about SWB being the cheapest form of energy, but there is small problem: wind energy is pretty crippled, almost dead at the moment. Why? Because wind and sun are medieval sources of energy with a super low energy density and therefore a huge requirement in material use, if material prices rise, wind and sun will become exepensive. I've got nothing againt solar pv, on my roof there is a 6.6 kWp system and a 10.75 kWh battery in the basement, installed ourselves, but running everything in northern countries only with those two power sources (wind and sun) is absurd. Look at electricity prices in Germany, California and Denmark - more volatile renewables, higher energy prices. And especially in Germany their government is going to collapse due to utopian green projects, making hydrogen from wind energy (projects cancelled due to high costs), building batteries for grid storage which is useless for several cloudy days in row without wind (3 weeks last december!) requiring CCGT plants "hydrogen ready" to backup the grid. People are sick of it - where are engineers from real life to judge things from the point of practicality and not fancy presenters with colorful PowerPoint charts.
The key is, that the grid function and usage evolves: Before: ALL electricity produced at large powerplants and distributed everywhere via HV grid to consumers. After SWB: MOST electricity produced locally by everone owning a roof. Local "leftovers" are distributed by the HV grid. The new SWB grid does not need the functionality that was required before. To avoid stranded investments, its much better to invest in distributed SWB than in a upgraded grid.
@@walterholaus6891 SWB is a pipe dream in industrialized nations with high energy usage, to cover winter months with nearly zero sunshine and often weeks with hardly any wind Germany would have to increase its storage capacity from 10 GWh (battery storage) to roughly 30.000 GWh - which is simply impossible, power plants would still be required for black starts simply to synchronize all wind and pv systems on the power grid which they can't. People dreaming from SWB are far away from reality.
Everything in society approaches zero marginal cost except for housing. Rent for a studio apartment is expected to be $4K by 2040 in the US. Minimum wage will still be $7.25/hr. A ride to your soul destroying job in an autonomous vehicle at that point will be about 0.02¢/mile. Housing will be the last thing that gets addressed.
That’s why legislation just got passed in the US that large investment companies must divest themselves of residential housing. The trend has changed the model of citizens owning their own homes, which is the foundation of middle class assets. Capitalism without guardrails will always lead to unsustainable accumulation of wealth to a few percent. The “ Monopoly game needs an adjustment or it can’t be sustained. Even Warren Buffet recognizes that the wealth gap as jeopardizing the game he’s prospered from his entire career.
Parking space is not gonna be used no more with Taas, that government sells 30 m² plots and put a city cocon on it. A cool small living unit. Look at the great Belgian architect Vincent Callebaut amazing PLUS-ENERGY HOMELESS SHELTERS. In Paris, France
28:13 "In my estimation, we haven't seen transformation of humanity this big since..." I was sure he was going to say The Industrial Revolution 200 to 250 years ago. That'd be a pretty big deal, right? Nope: "...the first domestication of plants and animals ten thousand years ago." 😲 So as big as the change from bands of hunter-gatherers to farming communities. Oh, is that all? Buckle your seatbelts, folks!
![The Great Transformation [Part 1] - Patterns of Change, Key Technologies & #PhaseChangeDisruption](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/z7vhMcKvHo8/mqdefault.jpg)
![The Great Transformation [Part 1] - Patterns of Change, Key Technologies & #PhaseChangeDisruption](/img/tr.png)
One thing I find fascinating is how disruption arises from changing conditions. You can’t force a disruption, and you can’t prevent a disruption. It crosses very quickly from “impossible” to “inevitable”.
❤❤❤❤❤❤
I’m not sure you can’t prevent one. In fact I’ll go further and say that, without China there not playing by Western rules, big auto and big oil would have tried to do just that. And probably held back the EV revolution.
the market decides
@@rctezluh42069 The equilibrium economics that most people mean when they say “market” doesn’t account for disruption. It’s like how Henry Ford supposedly said that if he asked consumers what they wanted, they’d have said “faster horses”. This also means that targeted market optimizations can’t fundamentally change a market. For example, solar power became viable because it was heavily subsidized long enough to get manufacturing economies of scale to kick in. Now it’s cheaper than fossil fuels on merit and subsidies aren’t needed. But equilibrium “market” economics says subsidies are bad, and carbon taxes are better because market. But no politically feasible carbon tax would ever have made solar panels cost competitive (much less a “free market”, which is in no way free). They needed an initial boost to become viable. NOW the market is deciding solar is better, because solar is cheaper - because it is.
As an aside, I’m reminded of Peter Thiel’s observation in his book “Zero to One”, that in the theoretically ideal “free market” of economists and politicians, profit is impossible, as perfect competition drives everything to zero. Profit, especially the huge profits that venture capitalists like Thiel seek, are only possible when the competition is imperfect - when there is a unique value proposition that can’t be replicated more cheaply by “competition”.
Very well put!
Brave to present to an audience with the most to lose, fantastic !
Read my mind. Those guys in Turbins looked pissed😅.
You actually see them not give a damn and thinking "This won't happen any time soon. Do you have any idea how much oil I sell?"
no...they have the most to gain if they have a deep understanding of this transition..
Did you see him emphasize the Food transformation for this audience? Imagine Saudi Arabia bringing nutritious, protein-rich and tasty (sweet) food at scale at very affordable (near zero) rates to the entire region in maybe 10 years.
(Hunger and food scarcity are going to be even more pressing issues as Climate Change progresses.) "Blessed" indeed is the country that is not just the birthplace of an important religion, but also is a huge part in solving one of the most basic and essential of human needs.
Another excellent presentation from Tony Seba.
Well Saudi Arabia will lose in Hydrocarbon exports but gain in solar energy and food production. Overall it will be a positive for them because they have been investing big in this new economy already. Well their religous tourism money is not going anywhere.
Tony Seba presenting to Saudis about the energy transition is the meta version of Steve Jobs presenting to a room full of Motorola and Nokia execs about smartphones 😂
Saudis are and have been diversifying so small wonder they listen to Tony.
The Saudis has been smart about diversification and creating new ways to have a more sustainable economic model. For example they had great strides is agriculture, food production. They were smart enough to have Tony there and they knew about Tony's ideas, so I give them tons of credits.
The Saudis own the planet, including the US.
I mean Saudi has unlimited solar potential. They will be right at the beginning of this all
@@MoDa87 Saudis are building the world's biggest solar farm or one of the biggest.
I think this was one of the best talks given by Tony Seba that I have watched. I recently read the 'Rethinking humanity' thesis which is both inspiring and somewhat of a warning given the recent increase in wars. I do hope he is correct about the disruption that will come in food and agriculture: I think that the other predictions in solar, wind, batteries and EV's are almost unarguable as they are further along their S curve path. To keep hope in our future we need positive narratives so Tony's presentations are a rare oasis of much-needed optimism.
Cute, she said "Good Luck" as he came on to the stage. Luck has nothing to do with t. It is data, data, data! Good video as always! 🇨🇦
I wonder if she was referring to the possibility that the large number of middle eastern people make them a hostile audience? A lot to lose if oil becomes less relevant. I believe that oil will always have relevance because of chemicals, plastics and lubricants.
@@randallsmith7885He is in the Lions den. Hope they take note of the non oil opportunities.
@@randallsmith7885I'm not so sure. If Seba and RethinkX are correct with their predictions we'll arrive in an era of overabundance of energy. That also means cheaper production of synthetics from any source, really, even the carbon in the very air we breath.
@@MattCasters fair point. Disruptions are possible for those other oil based products.
@@lesbendo6363 I checked the event. It is TAQA 20th anniversary, which is Abu Dhabi’s electric and water utility and are also in the oil and gas business. I have to assume that
Their CEO is a forward thinking person who wants to get the executives’ minds thinking about the future.
Notice that Tesla is advancing in 4 of the 5 areas: Transportation (Vehicles), Energy (MegaPacks), Intellence/AI (FSD), Labor (Tesla Bot)
Exactly, and Tesla is killing it in all those areas. Disruption at it's finest!
Which companies are strong in the food disruption (precision fermentation)? Which names should I add to my watch list?
“It’s just a car company” 😂😂😂
But…. there will competition…… soon…….maybe….
@@mik2137Kimbal Musk is in the food industry…
@@mik2137Upside Foods my friend - they’re slaying it. And yes, Kimbal Musk is very likely to move into this space 🎉🎉🎉🎉
“The future is already here, it's just not evenly distributed” -William Gibson
Tony has the cristal ball of the future. Pass this golden presentation to your teenagers.
I’ve sent my young adult kids Tony’s videos about 8 months ago with him giving basically the same presentation. The fact it’s TAQA in UAE is hilariously funny. The look on their faces says they don’t believe. See if that group changes anything about their future plans after this. Bet is a Hard no.
He predicted sub-25-dollar oil by 2025 and "it won't go back up." Yet here we are.
He predicted no more internal combustion engine vehicles produced by 2025.
Tony has been speaking his thoughts for 15 + years. People r finally starting to listen…..
@beegdawg007He’s been proven correct so it’s hard to argue with success.
Humans negativity bias has also been proven so while you’ve focused on the negative, things like global poverty have reduced dramatically and cost of solar energy has dropped 90%.
In my 60 years I’ve heard nothing but doomsday predictions that never come true. It seems no one likes good news.
Fun to imagine heads silently exploding around the room as the realization sinks in!
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Look at projects in the area. They're already on board.
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Bold move presenting this in Saudi. Great work!
Easy audience compared to the US?
@@rogerstarkey5390 Actually yes! It is not my inclination to praise the Saudis and other Gulf monarchies, but they are much more forward thinking (as to technologies... much less as to social matters, but it's another topic) than the extremely conservative Americans. Their leaders know very well that oil will not last for much longer...which many Americans do not, from what I can read in the comment sections of YT videos on the topic of EVs.
Great! thanks for your quality content.
Super abundance and zero cost, now where have we heard that before? We are such a caring sharing species, that it is sure to benefit all of us.
What I like most about this comment is that it reminds me that humans are still smarter than A.I., since an A.I. wouldn’t understand that you’re being sarcastic.
The effect of land being freed up for housing is going to be a life saver for the poor.
sun's power as the great equilibrium of all of us :)
Your presentation brings tears of joy Tony! You blew a whole room of minds that day!
Tony Seba. Thank you. Humanity saves humanity via cooperation. Long live the mothers that teach brothers and sisters to be loving builders cooperating with each other and to set aside the infantile jealousies or narcissistic greed.
Some folk can see what’s going to happen decades before it happens. In this era it’s Tony Seba doing the predicting, and predominately Elon Musk delivering the disruption, on an EPIC, global scale 👊
Some don't see the evidence even if it is presented in front of their eyes, the predictions he made 10 years ago about prices are now a reality, not fantasies.
@beegdawg007You are absolutely right, I have another number for you: Philip Tetlock once analyzed 82,000 predictions from hundreds of experts, almost none became reality. Why?
Our world is a complex machine of many non-linear interferences.
One example: The almost effortless expansion of wind energy, onshore wind, came to a grinding stop. Assumptions and fundamentals valid a decade ago have changed, higher interest rates, higher material costs and increased labor costs have a devastating impact on volatile (non dispatchable) energy generation. Europe's biggest onshore wind farm in Sweden has faced a bankruptcy marking it as a possible point of no return for onshore wind energy in many areas.
Coming back to Mr. Tetlock's research it is highly likely the proposed solar-wind-battery system will face the same issue of a prediction that will never become true. Battery prices seem to stagnate at a far too high level for a possible grid storage for days (!) of electrical consumption.
I’m trying to process this in a way that I can best advise my 16 year-old on life planning.
Great presentation. There are still MANY ... and I mean MANY people that don't see and understand this idea, even after hearing about it.
With the last 10 years now behind us, that should help convince some more ... though holdouts always remain.
This is simply brilliant. People should pay more attention to Tony. ICE manufacturers, AI, manufacturers in general should be watching out. Otherwise, we will have another Blackberrys, Kodak, Motorola etc moments.
By no means EVs will take over so fast in many markets, the infrastructure is not there, especially for many in bigger cities without a dedicated parking lot with a charger.
You cannot compare the smartphone disruption with cars - the infrastructure has not changed, cell towers and wall outlets where there before.
Don't forget all the mining required for battery materials which could become more expensive with rising demand.
Future predictions are always tricky and most are plain wrong, at the moment the wind industry suffers.
Tony Seba's predictions will most likely end like those of 82,000 predictions Prof. Tetlock has analyzed between 1987 and 2003: roughly 85% were wrong. Why would this age better?
@@MultiThibor Tony's predictions are much more likely to age well... because what he predicted over 10 years ago came true, to the exact year... and the same forces are at work!
Battery materials are plentiful and, if they are not (cobalt is in this case), are already being replaced by other, common and cheap materials. Yes, mining and refining operations have to keep up with the rising demand, and might temporarily become bottlenecks... which will slow the transition by a year or two at most!
The automotive transition started in the early 1900s with NO fuel distribution infrastructure, negligible oil production and refining, and hardly any motorable roads, at a time when things were happening much slower than they do now... and it nevertheless happened in a couple of decades.
As to city infrastructure, I have two things to remind you: a) Chinese cities have already installed millions of charging stalls all along their streets and within a couple of years, and some cities in Europe are starting doing the same (although not as aggressively), and b) Tony Seba said it himself: the future of urban transport is NOT personal cars but of on-demand transportation, and this will reduce greatly the number of vehicles in cities. After all, owning a vehicle in a large city is an expensive pain in the neck!
@@MultiThibor Infrastructure is as easy as adding an appliance to your home. Most homes have a dryer/electric oven 240V/30-50 amp plug that can add 30-50 miles/hour, even a standard 120V/15 amp plug can give you 30-40 miles overnight. Mining for materials really depends on ever changing battery components, CATL already produces sodium batteries and lithium mining is blowing up all over the world.
@@Rockster1989 In many places around the world people can't park their car on their own spot - like in Europe or Asia.
EVs without a home charger are not very pleasent to use for everyone, to be honestly.
Adding charger in apartment builings is often difficult.
Thanks for sharing,Tony.
Great presentation 👏🏼
Thanks for sharing your ideas, and I hope we see them all in Saudi Arabia.
A lot of what you said is in Saudi Vision 2030, and I’m sure the rest will be in Vision 2040 🇸🇦❤️
"It is very hard to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on him not understanding it." (Upton Sinclair). That seems to be true even if his salary (or industry, or lifestyle) threatens his kids' future...
This is one of the best "TED-talks" ever on the subject and I'm glad it took place in The Kingdom which as SOME people know owns TWO ELECTRIC CAR BRANDS in Lucid and Ceer... So even they know where future is headed... And for the record, Ceer is partnered with BMW and Foxconn two of the largest names in their respective fields which means this is no backyard experiment. They mean to become MENA's Top Automaker and I fully support them in this goal... If you can't beat 'em? Join 'em!
How much does a car battery cost? After how many years one has to replace the battery? How much does a solar panel cost? In Switzerland to cover a roof with solar panels of an average house it costs 90‘000 $ !!!! And if there is very little sun, in certain areas there‘s lots of fog, no electricity can be generated through a solar panel….
Been following Tony since 2017. Spot on! Question for Tony is whether disruptive patterns will impact social constructs, like conservatism or religions that resist technological advancement?
Me tooo - Main reason i Invested in TSLA ☺️
AI might be "new", but many other disruptions happen in the "background". SWB still provides electricity, no reason to reject it (except windfarms). Precision fermentation still provides proteins (as a precursor for B2B, not as an end product) and your new dairy products feel the same as traditional ones.
Politics as well how will nations govern these disruptions a lot money will exchange hands and a lot of countries maybe not accepting the disruption.
During #PhaseChangeDisruptions, new organizing systems emerge that outcompete legacy ones. #OrganizingSystems include prevailing models, belief systems, political, social systems, and so on.
@@tonysebaor more simply put (as you hinted often enough in the presentation) it's the economy stupid (or rather personal well being, if you are right, is there even a need for an economy as we know it)
Just found your Video from the speech from 2017 about PV and EV adoption on Champion Speakers YT channel. Please make a new video now. Just a PPT with you explaining your view on the world now. You nailed it, that was such a great prediction. Can’t wait to hear more from you. I subscribed hoping for more !❤
Holy Cow!
4:53 I've seen most of the others in previous talks, but this is a new one for me. Brilliant in its clarity.
IMO Saudi Audience was listening to him very carefully and respectfully. They understand that within 10-15 years their profits from oil will shrink. On the other hand they are full of money and Mr Seba's visionary could give them the direction in which sectors to move capital and invest in new technologies in order to achieve biggest profits.
You look at the faces in the audience. What are they thinking? Who is going to be ready for the future, I wonder? Will the shift in technology go with the shift in power? Will Asia be the new superpower? Will Africa transition faster than we with our current technology?
As always a great presentation!
This has been my view for a long time.
The term "Superpower" will apply to many previously "poor" regions with the resources (sun/ wind) and the foresight to invest early (Morocco as one example)
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It's going to be interesting watching the stance of US politicians in 2024.
Their success and subsequent actions will have huge impact on the status of the US moving forward.
If you're not in the game, you can't win the game.
@@rogerstarkey5390 Germany has "Superpower" sometimes - when wind and sun feed more in the grid than they consume. This electricity is then send abroad for a negative price, yes, Germany is paying them to take useless electricity.
By the way, the wind industry is struggeling at the moment - no more superpower?
The future will be nuclear and renewables in a 50/50 share, the rest is simply absurd for any industrialized nation.
He has been right so far, and my gut tells me he will continue to be right, still my brain is telling me, "he can't be right, it is to much.." I need to tell my brain to shut up 😄
Ha Ha, LOL Good one!😛👍
Hey, Tony - A judgement on the debt brake means that Germany has reached a peak. Either slow down the transformation and risk prosperity or speed up the transformation and create new prosperity. Please use your reach and your network to explain the unleashing of market forces to the Federal Chancellor, the Vice-Chancellor and the Finance Minister once again. After all, all three are "liberal" at heart - the programme actually suits them perfectly.
Germany will fail with its energy transition, manufacturing, heavy and chemical industries are fleeing that place, populism is on the rise due to high energy costs.
Even Meyer-Burger (pv manufacturing) will close down their factory in Saxony - how so, if solar energy is almost free? They could even install their own panels...😂😂😂
Regarding protein PF he is referring to the company in Finland called Solar food that will go commercial 2024. Solein protein out of thin air
“We lead by example. We started the construction of Factory 01 in 2021. We will be ready to produce the world’s most sustainable protein in 2024. And this factory is only the first of many to come.”
Cheers Mr Seba
If we could do this *and* solve climate change we’d be golden.
A new age of freedom! And a new task for humanity. Research Carbon Quantitative Easing and the Global Carbon Reward.
Is there a link to get the slides so you can spend more time on them? I'll be interested to see a blind taste test and nutritional analysis comparison of a cow steak vs. a precision fermentation steak!
13:56 Economics are changing for sustainability 😊😊😊
Sir Tony, we need a Bitcoin adoption S Curve from you please!
right audience. Fossil fuel kings told that your days are numbered!
If you actually research, you'll see they are WAY ahead of "certain other regions" (guess who?)
‘Incumbent mindset’ = Mary Barra, Toyota CEO, others
Awesome 👏
Livestock as a part of regenerative agriculture is strongly required to quickly regenerate disturbed by historical agricultural activities topsoil biodiversity and fertility, improve heat and water stress adaptation of ecosystems by mimicking natural processes.
Precision fermentation will not occur if it can not supported by resources from agriculture (regenerative one). It is needed to think about double disruption and divergence of current agriculture land and life degraded practises into regenerative agriculture (to obtain row material) and precision fermentation (to produce applicable food)
Right on! As much as I appreciate Tony Seba, and as much I owe to him (HE made me aware, in early 2013, of the potential of a start-up company, then called Tesla Motors, in which I significantly invested...plenty early enough!), as much I must say that there is something missing in his presentations about the disruption of agriculture. And that is the indispensable role of livestock (in extensive, obviously not intensive breeding and raising) in agriculture in general, and for many many regions and cultures in particular.
Interestingly - aside from oil disruption, Saudi at one time had the second largest cattle herd in the world - they used underground aquifers to supply water ( which is running out) - and that was in a desert !. That was to make milk - which they consume a lot of.. If they have an alternative ( precision fermentation) - they have plenty of money ( ummm oil !) to create an industry to make it....
#PrecisionFermentation is a potential multi-trillion dollar industry to make not just food but also cosmetics, medicine, materials and more. Disruptions come from the edge - and this opportunity is still up for grabs.
@@tonyseba I think food is a problem area in your talk. The human body adapts slowly to changes and has wonderfully adapted to particularly meat and fat. Even if certain proteins are exactly duplicated, the whole package of, for example, a piece of fatty meat will include enzymes, phytoneutrients, and much more which we cannot "fake" in a petrie dish. We cannot really outsmart nature because we ARE nature, and are deeply intertwined with nature. Many people are curing their bodies in profound ways by moving away from processed foods and back to natural food, and the more natural the better. I hope this makes may point clearly.
Hello Tony, I admire your visionary thinking. it has been ages since your last video relaise. Can you please update your devoted followers? Thanks
I'm very hopeful for a future where transportation and food are cheaper, as communications are today. This will make UBI viable and life way less miserable for humanity.
Woukd be great if we could learn to live in peace first.
ha. we'll have to. How awful! lol
Perhaps we should evaluate nations / regions / religions on that basis and have a world peace council to sort out the outliers...
Why "first"? Peace will further expand in parallel to the diff. disruptions mentioned by Tony. The developed world is already extremely peaceful today compared to it's history.
Once the diff. continents are energy independent (thanks to Solar, Wind, and Battery), there are much less reasons for wars and much less audience for extremism.
Btw, China and Russia will collapse within 10 years (for demographics and other reasons) and with them all communist countries and dictators. Giving room for Democratic nations and increased global harmony.
Some countries hav already succeeded in doing so, but given the nature of mankind, it will take a few more centuries to spread out, if ever! So, it is definitely NOT going to come first!
@13:23 Worlds largest car market is on track for ending the year at 68% electric car sales
For those disbelievers in what he is saying, look back at how the cost of long-distance calls has dropped. 40-50 years ago, you could have a monthly bill of hundreds of pre-inflated dollars, now the cost is essentially zero.
Excellent analogy!!!! I didn't think about that one... thanks, I'll owe you royalties!
As a foreign student in the USA in the late 70s, I was limited to calling my parents once a month for a few minutes. Nowadays, I could have a visual call with them for an hour a day, every day... if we had that much to tell teach others... and that would cost us NOTHING!
@@st-ex8506got I remember that.
Seba doesn’t deal with the limitations of the grid delivering 10x the current electricity demand for electric cars. The number of transformers needed far outstrips manufacturing capability.
For decades I bought almost exclusively Toyotas. However, Toyota still seems to be figuring out which new evolving technology is going to win. Despite the fact that the winner is now obviously EVs. I'm afraid my once favorite car company will soon be non-existent or tiny shadow of its former self. I am of the opinion that this transition is going to happen fast. The EV technology once mature is so much simpler than an internal combustion engine vehicle. It replaced hundreds or thousands of complex parts for engine, transmission, cooling, electrical generation, electric storage, pollution control with a far simpler system of a battery bank, one or two electric motors and some electronics. Even the 12v or 48v power for accessories can simply be drawn from the main battery through well understood power electronics. So EVs will soon be cheaper and better than traditional (ICE) cars. Traditional car manufactures are not well positioned to succeed. They'll have to walk away from their current products to go 100% EV within the next couple years and their stock holders will never allow them to do it. Nor do they have the battery, motor, electronics and software knowledge to transition fast enough. By the time they're competitive with the Chinese EV makers and Tesla they'll be a shadow of their former selves or out of business in my opinion.
Modern engines have an incredible number of finely machined parts made at low cost. Electric motors are so simple in comparison, and batteries have no moving parts. The cost advantage of converting concentrated chemical energy into movement through combustion will be beat with simpler manufacturing and few moving parts.
@@chrisgaul866 Absolutely! 21st century technologies competing with 19th century ones (even if much refined by over a century worth of engineering)... a pretty safe bet!
Toyota CEOs current and in the past are what Tony calls ‘Incumbent mindset’. Stuck on ICE with no common sense to realize hydrogen and fuel cells are going to be bit players in the foreseeable future. Dark times ahead for Toyota.
For those of you who don't know Tony yet, of course I recommend listening to his conference. But then I also recommend that you watch the video again this time focusing on the attitude of the attendance. You can see slightly mocking smile, arms crossed on chests, disbelief on face expression,... This is the incumbent syndrom at work.
I definitely did notice that. I guess when you're entire existence and generation of wealth is seriously under threat, they were probably planning his 'accidental' demise...
2024 checking in. China is now at 55% of all new vehicles sold are EV. Wild.
Instead of batteries for storage why not use the excess energy to pump water up high store it then release it to generate energy
Tony sees into the future.
Could the Saudis stretch out the EV adoption curve by increasing supply and lowering oil prices to the $40 to $50 per barrel range? I would think that this strategy would slow the EV adoption rate … especially for SUV and Truck users. A drop in diesel prices would be a big help to curb inflation since it powers boats, trains and trucks.
Most people in the audience looked very pale after this presentation --> energy cost evolving to zero implies that some parts of the world become irrelevant (again)... Scary for some, but probably true.
Tough room for you no doubt Tony. I Recognize a couple of MBS' deputies in the audience. Pretty sure one is Saudi minister of finance.
I suspect easier than US politicians?
Well done
I have no problem with this as long as the elite give up everything as well and not hypocrites
All well and good about PF , but scaling it is the biggest challenge and it could take decades to do that.
What is the precision fermentation brand of chocolate you eat?? I’d love to buy it too!
It's called Oobli. 🍫 It has sweet proteins made with #PrecisionFermentation.
@@tonysebalooks fantastic - I wish they shipped to Australia 😢
Brilliant, I think I need to invest in a protein factory
The Saudis know that they have all their eggs in one basket so it only makes sense that they are the most interested in an alternate energy source. Especially one involving the sun when they live in a giant dessert.
At about 20 minutes in - Design for the trough (over engineering) - that's what a Victorian engineer would do.
Curious to see grid disruption. Disruptive use of electricity on a very aging grid will literally cause rupture... not to mention energy needed to replace fossil fuel based energy.
Tony giving this presentation from about a year ago to TAQA (in 11 countries for power, oil and gas) in UAE is hilariously funny. The look on their faces says they don’t believe. Bet: will they change their biz model after this? …I say a hard no.
The Saudi minister of oil stuff some years ago: the stone age didn't end because of the lack of stones. They are aware, it's the speed by which it happens that is the mentally hard thing to grasp because we humans have difficulty understanding exponentials.
I think Tony would confirm that these guys are more switched on than many politicians "elsewhere".
@@christianvanderstap6257 The world will burn oil for decades to come, decades!
From 2004 to 2022, global spending on wind and solar totaled $4.1 trillion, yet hydrocarbon use increased 3.4x faster.
Ok i need to remember this term, precision fermentation. Going to throw a party when the meat and dairy industries collapse!
I can't help thinking beer....
2 years to go...
Which companies should we watch reg. Precision fermentation?
PV works even in Germany. Kinda hurts my feelings as a german PV owner. Sure it does and yes the sun shines in Germany, too.
What I fear, is the effect of geopolitical disruption in the absence of a de facto rules based global order. Historically, humanity has *never* managed power disruptions without violence and war on a scale matching the scale of the disruption.
In that context, the current state of the rules-based global order is beyond worrisome. Even worse, the cheerleaders of geopolitical "multipolarity", who, obviously, have no clue about how multipolarity always equal war within a realist framework (as in the absence of rules-based order) appears to be gaining ground, while at the same time failing to understand that the only path they offer, is the short-cut to nuclear catastrophe.
I sometimes worry that the Rethink forecast will move faster if it is under the radar.
The future unrolls for reasons of purely economic self-interest, free so far of the obstructionists attacking to slow it down.
I would like to hear more about food production. It's interesting that Kimball Musk is involved in innovative food production while Elon is in Energy and robotics. I would love to hear some speculation on what they might be up to.
A lot of people with money are getting involved in food production, you can guess why.
Why he doesn’t talk about Q-tech and HTC smartphones instead of Nokia? They appeared 3 years prior to Iphones
The one fly in the ointment I see regarding the Chinese having made sub $15,000 electric cars available is that I doubt these will be allowed for sale in the collective West without substantial tariffs.
There's an even bigger fly in the ointment... China has both control of critical resources, and are leading in many related technologies.
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Companies in "The Collective West" must first *survive* before they can compete.
China is already hinting "play nice or you don't get .... Graphite, finished cells, etc"
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Correct! But, once they have tested those markets, and after establishing a distribution foothold, they will invest into local plants and produce their EVs in Europe as well as in North America... just like the Japanese did!
Sir, indian company gensol coming with ev below 10 k $. Pls read about it
Where will it be sold?
@@michaelmuller665 it's under production I expect in Jan 24 . 300 km milega
Can anyone read what brand of chocolate that is?
As one of the world's largest oil exporter, I was wondering what the Saudis were thinking about their future.
Oil will still be needed at scale,and Saudis extract the cheapest oil...
As demand declines the most expensive wells will be shut down
IE deep water
Production and demand cycles will continue with more wells shut down
Eventually the cheapest oil will survive
Saudi oil can almost be pumped into your car
About 2 bucks a barrel is their cost
I know what they're thinking.
"We have a ton of money to invest in this and the natural resources to make it work".
I recognize that suit.
Which are these PF Diary companies what will make cows obsolete?
Well there it is, Near Net Zero and we don't have to spend a thing, in fact it will become cheaper.
Then why is Germany going through a crisis with almost 30,000 wind turbines and more than 60 GW of pv? Sun and wind are free, turning them into a reliable supply of electricity 24/7 definitely is not.
Wind power is actually rising in costs and many projects are canceled.
Sun and wind are medieval sources of energy with an extremely low power density requiring vast amounts of raw materials like copper and steel to utilize them. Since generation and consumption (not all places are suitable for wind turbines) are often far away the distribution of power needs enormous upgrades. In Germany the "grid development plan" estimates 237 Billion (!) € of investments into the 380 kV grid, the 110 kV grid needs upgrades in the "triple digit Billion €" range.
Financing this over consumer bills until 2030 would increase the kWh price beyond 50 ct - totally insane 😮.
Presentations like these are only looking at isolated aspects and are not at the whole system.
France is building 14 new NPPs from 2024 onwards - but, hey, they will be disrupted...
Bulgaria, Ukraine, Poland and Slovenia are signing a memorandum of understanding with Westinghouse for their AP-1000 plant. Everything is wrong about them...😅😅😅
RethinkX is his foundation
Greak videos
This is what Takurus is doing -> Takurus aims to develop intelligent maglev highway solutions as
we approach the acceleration of a smart road
innovation’s S-curve.
@tonyseba Liked it, but a half hour is too short for containing all you have to say. It's great for a review, but if it's the first time someone has seen this info, it becomes too disjoint. 1 hour works better.
Refer people to his 5-part Great Transformation series, which is excellent, sufficiently detailed without being too long.
This was not for us, but for the room.
Those poor OPEC grifters must have found all this quite upsetting. To hear that their half a century of bleeding the world dry with artificially high oil prices would soon come to an end must have been just awful for them.
They don't look poor to me
The Chinese listened to what Tony had said 10 years ago.
People don’t understand China. It’s funny. They have limited oil and gas reserves but lots of coal and renewable potential. So they figured to give them a stronger strategic position, they need to become independent of oil imports from the Arabian gulf. As that is their biggest vulnerability in a fight with the USA.
So by going all electric they kill two birds with one stone.
Nostradamus of tech destruction
Hertz is selling it's EV fleet
The food revolution will have a disastrous effect on human health. I bet he eats wagyu beef.
Gotta wonder how well they took this presentation in the room. "Well, you need to completely change your investment focus in the next 12 years."
they already started to diversify it a decade ago or more
@@SzabolcsSzekacs
Unbelievable that people don't know this (and don't bother to check before commenting..)
1400 years ago Arabs take/translate western (Greek) knowledge and run/improve on them. Now is good time to repeat and not only in energy. Go for it. It is your destiny.
I agree with your assessment of energy and transportation, however when you think chemistry can replace naturally raised food... you are wrong.
00:05 Los próximos 15 a 20 años serán los más perturbadores de la historia.
03:07 Las tecnologías disruptivas conducen a cambios de fase en la industria.
08:58 Las personas y las empresas inteligentes a menudo no ven la próxima disrupción debido a su mentalidad tradicional.
11:36 La industria del transporte está experimentando una gran disrupción debido al auge de los vehículos eléctricos.
17:18 La transición a la energía solar y eólica se está produciendo según lo previsto, lo que se traduce en fuentes de energía más baratas.
19:48 El diseño de sistemas de energía eólica centrándose en maximizar la generación de energía durante todo el año puede alimentar varias regiones con un sistema de batería eólica 100% solar.
24:51 El costo del PF ha disminuido significativamente y se prevé que alcance el dólar por kilo en 2030.
27:24 Las proteínas dulces son mil veces más dulces que el azúcar de caña, lo que las convierte en un posible sustituto del azúcar.
00:00 TAQA celebra su 20º aniversario en Dhahran, Arabia Saudita
The audience cuts are distracting and unnecessary.
Excellent work Tony. One argument an electrical engineer mentioned to me was the bad state of the old cooper electrical grid on every continent. That infrastructure needs massive upgrades to delivery from the solar farms and megapacks. What's your response?
Fragment ("invert") the "grid".
.
Solar on buildings, local Wind.
Megapack at the end of the street/ within the factory.
.
Local distribution.
.
Tesla Texas as an example.
(When complete, 70,000 panels, 65 Megapacks)
.
You can still have a distribution grid, but working "back to front" as required, with energy being sent *by* the end user to the grid.
Very much like the internet.
One node fails, there are other connections to supplement the supply.
Transmission takes a long time to build. It is needed to move energy from where it is generated to where it is consumed. With solar panels every roof and parking lot can be a power generator next to the load. It may be cheaper to construct a big solar array on a greenfield site, but if the grid cannot carry electricity to loads the lower projects meaningless. Put solar in the already built environment and society saves the time and cost of transmission.
This is more like the work of an utopian than rather someone with sensible knowledge about electrical grids and power distribution.
Germany alone has estimated costs of 600 Billion (!) € to uprade their grid to work with 100% renewables, that is simply absurd.
What many people without knowledge do not know are required conditions to operate an electrical grid safely and reliable:
1. spinning reserve or instantaneos reserve for immediate frequency support
2. black start capabilities (wind and solar need a grid to synchronize, in Europe pv inverters have to follow the DIN VDE 4105 which prohibits island operation)
3. control of reactive power
Solar is useless in many of these terms, making grids unstable if it is the main source.
Despite of falling prices, batteries are insanly expensive even for one night of storage on a grid scale - this includes transport and industry as well.
At the moment, Germany has roughly 10 GWh of battery storage. For one night in the summer (without wind, sometimes common in heat waves)
they would need roughly 500 GWh - 50 times the actual capacity.
Material use?
Staff the put them in service?
Sounds a bit too ambitious.
Tony made predictions about SWB being the cheapest form of energy, but there is small problem: wind energy is pretty crippled, almost dead at the moment.
Why? Because wind and sun are medieval sources of energy with a super low energy density and therefore a huge requirement in material use, if material prices rise, wind and sun will become exepensive.
I've got nothing againt solar pv, on my roof there is a 6.6 kWp system and a 10.75 kWh battery in the basement, installed ourselves, but running everything in northern countries only with those two power sources (wind and sun) is absurd.
Look at electricity prices in Germany, California and Denmark - more volatile renewables, higher energy prices.
And especially in Germany their government is going to collapse due to utopian green projects, making hydrogen from wind energy (projects cancelled due to high costs), building batteries for grid storage which is useless for several cloudy days in row without wind (3 weeks last december!) requiring CCGT plants "hydrogen ready" to backup the grid.
People are sick of it - where are engineers from real life to judge things from the point of practicality and not fancy presenters with colorful PowerPoint charts.
The key is, that the grid function and usage evolves:
Before: ALL electricity produced at large powerplants and distributed everywhere via HV grid to consumers.
After SWB: MOST electricity produced locally by everone owning a roof. Local "leftovers" are distributed by the HV grid.
The new SWB grid does not need the functionality that was required before. To avoid stranded investments, its much better to invest in distributed SWB than in a upgraded grid.
@@walterholaus6891 SWB is a pipe dream in industrialized nations with high energy usage, to cover winter months with nearly zero sunshine and often weeks with hardly any wind Germany would have to increase its storage capacity from 10 GWh (battery storage) to roughly 30.000 GWh - which is simply impossible, power plants would still be required for black starts simply to synchronize all wind and pv systems on the power grid which they can't.
People dreaming from SWB are far away from reality.
China has subsidized BYD with billions. That is why they can’t sell an EV for 11.5k. Still, Tony makes a lot of sense.
Everything in society approaches zero marginal cost except for housing. Rent for a studio apartment is expected to be $4K by 2040 in the US. Minimum wage will still be $7.25/hr. A ride to your soul destroying job in an autonomous vehicle at that point will be about 0.02¢/mile. Housing will be the last thing that gets addressed.
That’s why legislation just got passed in the US that large investment companies must divest themselves of residential housing. The trend has changed the model of citizens owning their own homes, which is the foundation of middle class assets. Capitalism without guardrails will always lead to unsustainable accumulation of wealth to a few percent. The “ Monopoly game needs an adjustment or it can’t be sustained. Even Warren Buffet recognizes that the wealth gap as jeopardizing the game he’s prospered from his entire career.
@@pohkeeedid it pass both houses?
Parking space is not gonna be used no more with Taas, that government sells 30 m² plots and put a city cocon on it. A cool small living unit. Look at the great Belgian architect Vincent Callebaut amazing PLUS-ENERGY HOMELESS SHELTERS. In Paris, France
So... uh, how are humans supposed to adapt to all this change?
Why is the volume set so low on this video???
28:13 "In my estimation, we haven't seen transformation of humanity this big since..." I was sure he was going to say The Industrial Revolution 200 to 250 years ago. That'd be a pretty big deal, right? Nope: "...the first domestication of plants and animals ten thousand years ago." 😲 So as big as the change from bands of hunter-gatherers to farming communities. Oh, is that all? Buckle your seatbelts, folks!