Really good high level discussion Andy, Akhil is great. I've seen other chats that indicate a "cycle" with an upcoming peak in 2026 as well. Come on uranium lol
Been hoping Andy would get onto PSE always knew they'd cross paths eventually. 2x masters of the game would be great to have Phillip J on also. These guys can help change your life the macro outlook is undeniable use it along with Andy's technical outlook you'll be a much happier investor in time. Both Andy and PSE have been my go to guys i was lucky tobhave found them as a brand new investor never had any background just a dumb plumber but they've brought peace and change of outlook to my life the knowledge RE cycle will separate you feom the herd and give you a major advantage not obly in markets but in life overall
If you read his book, you’ll see he is very bullish on commodities at this point, but it’s a long term hold, not a short term hold, especially when you read the section about the K-wave.
@@BnibroC69depends on your strategy. You can play the fifth wave of the broad market and tech. You can also start scaling into certain commodities as the bottom or come out of their wave 2 pullback. But commodities are longer holds than the broad market and tech.
@@BnibroC69 I'm not even bothering with BTC now we're heading into alt season, when you factor in the final phase of the 18 year, the last year of the 4 year cycle, the 5 year (typically very strong up) in the 10 year cycle, Blackrock RWA's, AI mania, ETF's there is every reason to expect potentially massive gains over the next year or so. Of course most will ride them all the way up and back down again. Wouldn't surprise me if the eventual crash is blamed on the crypto bubble as much as 2008 was characterised as being caused by sub primes.
@@JustADumbConstructionWorker we’ll have to agree to disagree. The hundred-plus year trend is stocks and financial assets trend way higher while commodities get cheaper. Every economic force in the world is incentivized to make commodities as cheap as possible for businesses and consumers. If anything, commodities are only ever a short term play and stocks are for the long haul. This channel is interesting to check in on sometimes but I would bet lots of money that very few people here outperform the nasdaq or even the s and p
Appreciate the detailed breakdown! Just a quick off-topic question: I have a SafePal wallet with USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). What's the best way to send them to Binance?
Akhil, been following you for 6 years.. This is bar none the best interview you have done in my view as a representative of PSE. Interviewer questions were also exceptionally good and a great directive towards providing many answers to questions I also had unanswered. Thank you both 🙏
Maybe i dont have either enough intelligence or a good attention span, but i feel a bit foggy on the jist of what he said. Could someone explain in crib notes what the takeaway was? Do i stay the course with my uranium and precious metal stocks, or take measures to hedge? And, if hedging (which i dont know how to do) do i hedge now or later? Thank you all!
bank debt will not allow for credit creation to support housing bull thesis imho. i also don't see oil on this bull rn. metals ripping and will for awhile i expect though.
The chart at approx. 26 min seems to convey a huge slightly downward sloping broad channel all the way from the 1970-ies until now. That’s a channel. The curve met resistance against the upper channel trend line back in 2022 at the highs. The question is, will we get a double top or will the curve continue down to the lower support of that channel. I attribute the downward channel slope to demography with macro economic fluctuations between that support and resistance. A slight blow off top in 2007/2008 slightly above the channel resistance and vice versa reaction at the support in 2010/2011. In my opinion hopefully not a threat to commodities going forward, but setting housing into the category of financialized assets until it reverts to mean. It’s completely unaffordable now with income levels vs housing price levels and debt saturation, breakout in rates etc. This crisis might be more about the monetary side of commodities, rather than commodities overall. 🤷♂️
Demographics is the demand. If there’s no demand, there’s supply that isn’t purchased. Prices drop to entice people to buy. Prior decades, like the 70’s and 80’s, inflation and rates were much higher but that didn’t stop people from buying homes as there was a demand for them. House prices were falling before the QE of 2008 and continued to fall after 2008 until they bottomed around 2011/12. The metric you are using does not explain what has been occurring in the markets since the last GFC or the prior Real Estate cycles.
@@JustADumbConstructionWorker I disagree!. Young people forming households is only part of housing demand. Investors can represent a significant part like we have now as the result of the fed stimulating housing since 2008 via suppressed rates and QE. The only difference between the housing bubble during GFC and now is the fed was much quicker to bail out failing banks since not doing so would result in a more severe crises than 2008.
@@joeacquavella6548 I think you’re missing the point. Why has there been an increase in investor owned property? BECAUSE THERE IS A DEMAND (DEMOGRAPHIC) TO SUPPORT IT AND CAPITALIZE ON IT. Otherwise, large institutions absolutely would not waste their resources on building and/or acquiring properties to then rent out to the massive demand of people who need a house. Demographics is more than young people wanting a house. The share of rental properties owned by non-individual investors increased from 18 percent in 2001 to 27 percent in 2021, per the Joint Center For Housing Studies of Harvard University conducted in 2023. Non-individual investors include limited partnerships, limited liability corporations, trustees for estate, real estate corporations, and Real Estate Investment Trusts, among other corporate entities. The growth in non-individual ownership has been greatest for small- and midsized- multifamily properties but was also evident for single-family rentals. Indeed, 25 percent of single-family rentals were owned by non-individual investors in 2021, up from 17 percent two decades earlier. This explains how investor activity in the single-family housing market has increased even as the number of single-family rentals has declined in more recent years. The study also shows that investor owned properties is dominantly in multi-unit housing, not single family units. So. Yes. Demographics created the demand and has caught the attention of several investors and institutions, on top of the developers and homebuilders who all see that there is a massive demand for housing but a record low of supply. Supply and demand. Fewer houses than buyers, prices go up. At the top of the cycle, when there are more houses than buyers, prices go down.
Andy, thank you so much for bringing this to us for free here. You're doing God's work
Finally someone who knows as much as Andy.
EPIC INTERVIEW, THESE 2 RUN THE SHOW......
The moment we've all been waiting for!
This one is major. Nice work, Andy.
Really good high level discussion Andy, Akhil is great. I've seen other chats that indicate a "cycle" with an upcoming peak in 2026 as well. Come on uranium lol
i'll be getting Akhil's book that's for sure
Just added his book to my reading list.
Thanks for sharing your knowledge,great interview
Great interview 👍
GOOD LAWD! That was brilliant Andy! Im not even half way through!
Been hoping Andy would get onto PSE always knew they'd cross paths eventually.
2x masters of the game would be great to have Phillip J on also.
These guys can help change your life the macro outlook is undeniable use it along with Andy's technical outlook you'll be a much happier investor in time.
Both Andy and PSE have been my go to guys i was lucky tobhave found them as a brand new investor never had any background just a dumb plumber but they've brought peace and change of outlook to my life the knowledge RE cycle will separate you feom the herd and give you a major advantage not obly in markets but in life overall
Amen, my PSE brother!
Great stuff! Thanks to both of you!
Fantastic interview!
Taking a train tomorrow, will be watching this!
He doesn't seem overly bullish on commodities.
if we are in or approaching the winners curse, why would you buy anything other than alt coins, btc and nasdaq?
If you read his book, you’ll see he is very bullish on commodities at this point, but it’s a long term hold, not a short term hold, especially when you read the section about the K-wave.
@@BnibroC69depends on your strategy.
You can play the fifth wave of the broad market and tech. You can also start scaling into certain commodities as the bottom or come out of their wave 2 pullback. But commodities are longer holds than the broad market and tech.
@@BnibroC69 I'm not even bothering with BTC now we're heading into alt season, when you factor in the final phase of the 18 year, the last year of the 4 year cycle, the 5 year (typically very strong up) in the 10 year cycle, Blackrock RWA's, AI mania, ETF's there is every reason to expect potentially massive gains over the next year or so.
Of course most will ride them all the way up and back down again. Wouldn't surprise me if the eventual crash is blamed on the crypto bubble as much as 2008 was characterised as being caused by sub primes.
@@JustADumbConstructionWorker we’ll have to agree to disagree. The hundred-plus year trend is stocks and financial assets trend way higher while commodities get cheaper. Every economic force in the world is incentivized to make commodities as cheap as possible for businesses and consumers. If anything, commodities are only ever a short term play and stocks are for the long haul. This channel is interesting to check in on sometimes but I would bet lots of money that very few people here outperform the nasdaq or even the s and p
Appreciate the detailed breakdown! Just a quick off-topic question: I have a SafePal wallet with USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). What's the best way to send them to Binance?
LFG!!!
Very insightful 👍
BOOM!!
Thanks Andy
Thank you
Akhil, been following you for 6 years.. This is bar none the best interview you have done in my view as a representative of PSE.
Interviewer questions were also exceptionally good and a great directive towards providing many answers to questions I also had unanswered.
Thank you both 🙏
Maybe i dont have either enough intelligence or a good attention span, but i feel a bit foggy on the jist of what he said. Could someone explain in crib notes what the takeaway was? Do i stay the course with my uranium and precious metal stocks, or take measures to hedge? And, if hedging (which i dont know how to do) do i hedge now or later? Thank you all!
Whats the homebuilder stock at min 49:50 ?
Loook up all homebuilder stocks with similar share price
bank debt will not allow for credit creation to support housing bull thesis imho. i also don't see oil on this bull rn. metals ripping and will for awhile i expect though.
💥 🚀
First
The chart at approx. 26 min seems to convey a huge slightly downward sloping broad channel all the way from the 1970-ies until now. That’s a channel. The curve met resistance against the upper channel trend line back in 2022 at the highs. The question is, will we get a double top or will the curve continue down to the lower support of that channel. I attribute the downward channel slope to demography with macro economic fluctuations between that support and resistance. A slight blow off top in 2007/2008 slightly above the channel resistance and vice versa reaction at the support in 2010/2011. In my opinion hopefully not a threat to commodities going forward, but setting housing into the category of financialized assets until it reverts to mean. It’s completely unaffordable now with income levels vs housing price levels and debt saturation, breakout in rates etc. This crisis might be more about the monetary side of commodities, rather than commodities overall. 🤷♂️
Next week gonna get interesting…
Tldw: Whats the take-away?
One of your best interviews!
Sorry, demographics don't cause home prices to rise by 40% in 4 years but rate suppression and QE since 2008 can!
Demographics is the demand. If there’s no demand, there’s supply that isn’t purchased. Prices drop to entice people to buy.
Prior decades, like the 70’s and 80’s, inflation and rates were much higher but that didn’t stop people from buying homes as there was a demand for them.
House prices were falling before the QE of 2008 and continued to fall after 2008 until they bottomed around 2011/12.
The metric you are using does not explain what has been occurring in the markets since the last GFC or the prior Real Estate cycles.
@@JustADumbConstructionWorker I disagree!. Young people forming households is only part of housing demand. Investors can represent a significant part like we have now as the result of the fed stimulating housing since 2008 via suppressed rates and QE. The only difference between the housing bubble during GFC and now is the fed was much quicker to bail out failing banks since not doing so would result in a more severe crises than 2008.
@@joeacquavella6548 I think you’re missing the point.
Why has there been an increase in investor owned property?
BECAUSE THERE IS A DEMAND (DEMOGRAPHIC) TO SUPPORT IT AND CAPITALIZE ON IT.
Otherwise, large institutions absolutely would not waste their resources on building and/or acquiring properties to then rent out to the massive demand of people who need a house.
Demographics is more than young people wanting a house.
The share of rental properties owned by non-individual investors increased from 18 percent in 2001 to 27 percent in 2021, per the Joint Center For Housing Studies of Harvard University conducted in 2023.
Non-individual investors include limited partnerships, limited liability corporations, trustees for estate, real estate corporations, and Real Estate Investment Trusts, among other corporate entities. The growth in non-individual ownership has been greatest for small- and midsized- multifamily properties but was also evident for single-family rentals. Indeed, 25 percent of single-family rentals were owned by non-individual investors in 2021, up from 17 percent two decades earlier. This explains how investor activity in the single-family housing market has increased even as the number of single-family rentals has declined in more recent years.
The study also shows that investor owned properties is dominantly in multi-unit housing, not single family units.
So. Yes. Demographics created the demand and has caught the attention of several investors and institutions, on top of the developers and homebuilders who all see that there is a massive demand for housing but a record low of supply.
Supply and demand.
Fewer houses than buyers, prices go up.
At the top of the cycle, when there are more houses than buyers, prices go down.
You don't have to be an PhD economists to know that the current real estate cycle ended in the summer 2022 when the fed started raising rates.
Then how do you define the beginning and end of the real estate cycle?
How do you know when it’s a buyers market vs a sellers market?
@@JustADumbConstructionWorker Simple. The end of the cycle is when the fed begins raising rates to slow down housing.
@@JustADumbConstructionWorker Amount of inventory.
@@joeacquavella6548Then why did real estate peak and decline in 2005/2006 BEFORE the feds started changing rates?
BOOM!!!