Weather Whiplashing and Jetstream Waviness
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- Опубліковано 9 бер 2024
- The Climate Emergency Forum welcomes Dr. Jennifer Francis to discuss two of her recent papers on Weather Whiplashing, which is defined as an abrupt shift from one persistent set of often extreme weather conditions to another.
This video was recorded on February 27th, 2024, and published on March 10th, 2024, and represents the opinions of the discussion participants.
Dr. Francis introduces the concept of weather whiplashing and provides examples like sudden temperature drops and shifts from drought to heavy rain, highlighting the impact of these events on regions like Florida and California. Dr. Francis explains how weather whiplash events are diagnosed by analyzing patterns in the jet stream using self-organizing maps, emphasizing the role of the Arctic's warming in increasing the frequency of these events.
The dialogue delves into the intricate relationship between atmospheric patterns, jet stream dynamics, and weather phenomena. Dr. Francis illustrates how anomalies in the upper-level atmosphere can lead to significant shifts in weather patterns, affecting regions like Florida with freeze events and temperature extremes. She discusses the use of AI tools to analyze atmospheric patterns over time and predict future trends in weather whiplash events, particularly focusing on scenarios where the Arctic's warming plays a crucial role in driving these shifts.
Participants engage in a thought-provoking discussion on the complexities of jet stream behavior, climate factors influencing atmospheric dynamics, and implications for global weather patterns. Questions raised by participants highlight key aspects such as variations in jet stream configurations, heat transfer between equator and poles, and the impact of Arctic warming on jet stream speed and waviness.
Dr. Francis addresses inquiries about ocean currents' correlation with jet stream patterns and explains how subtleties in jet streams affect phenomena like record low transit times for airplanes flying across continents. The dialogue underscores the interdisciplinary nature of climate research and the interconnectedness of various environmental factors shaping our planet's weather systems.
Links:
- Measuring “Weather Whiplash” Events in North America: A New Large-Scale Regime Approach - J.Francis et al. - Sep. 7, 2022
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.c...
- Weather whiplash events in Europe and North Atlantic assessed as continental-scale atmospheric regime shifts - J.Francis et al. - Dec. 21, 2023
www.nature.com/articles/s4161...
- Woodwell Climate Research Center
www.woodwellclimate.org/
- Fluctuating Atlantic inflows modulate Arctic atlantification
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/s...
- Accelerated western European heatwave trends linked to more peristent double jets over Eurasia
www.nature.com/articles/s4146...
- NASA studies an unusual Arctic warming event
climate.nasa.gov/climate_reso...
- Dr. James E. Hansen in Conversation with Paul Beckwith (CEF Video)
• Dr. James E. Hansen in...
- AMOC Amok (CEF Video)
• AMOC Amok
Special Guest:
Dr. Jennifer Francis - is an atmospheric scientist. She became a senior scientist at Woods Hole Research Center in 2018, after being a research professor at Rutgers University's Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences starting in 1994. Her research focuses on climate change in the Arctic, and she has published over 40 scientific papers on the topic. It is also her opinion that warming in the Arctic may be changing the jet stream, which, in turn, may be leading to abnormal weather patterns. The Woods Hole Research Center changed its name to the Woodwell Climate Research Center in 2021.
Regular Panelists:
Dr. Peter Carter - MD, Expert IPCC Reviewer and the director of the Climate Emergency Institute
Paul Beckwith - Climate Systems Scientist. Professor at the University of Ottawa's Paleoclimatology Laboratory as well as at Carleton University
Regina Valdez - Program Director, Climate Reality Project, NYC. GreenFaith Fellow and LEED Green Associate
Video Production and Panelists:
Charles Gregoire - Electrical Engineer, Webmaster and IT prime for FacingFuture.Earth & the Climate Emergency Forum; Climate Reality Leader
Heidi Brault - Video production and website assistant, Organizer and convener, Metadata technician, COP team lead for the Climate Emergency Forum & Facing Future; BA (Psychology); Climate Reality Leader
Our Website:
climateemergencyforum.org/
Attributions:
Background Music:
- Title: Through the City II
- Author: Crowander
- Source: Free Music Archive
- License: CC BY-NC 4.0
Image and Video: climateemergencyforum.org/ass...
Jennifer Francis is top of the food chain. Brilliant and original research are her trademarks.
She needs to get with disgraced climate science denier Judith Curry and straighten her out.
She's so clear and concise. Very easy to listen to.
Thanks for making these videos and informing the public.
You're welcome! Thank you so much for your support.
Great guest. Great discussion. Thanks guys.
You're welcome! Thank you so much.
These weather variations will cause havoc with trees and crops.
They have been. I'm in MA, US and this year maple sap production is half of normal and a lot of it's unusable because it's yellowed. Peach buds last year all died, early blueberries, plums and some apples. Pests are off the wall for our veggie garden too.
Yes agree. The trees on my property in New England are rotting at the base from excessive ground water. We are getting pummeled with rain. Another few inches of rain and there will be catastrophic flooding. The rivers and lakes are at the brink right now.
and when your trees do set fruit, along comes a hailstorm to strip it off...
@@LilyAmongThorns7- scientists have no reason to believe a pole reversal is imminent.
@@susanl7514 Heck, the squirrels do that too!
Fantastic video! Please interview food growers on what is happening with crops.
This is an amazing format…
It condenses the best parts of a conference lecture and makes it accessible. I’d prefer this to reading articles any day.
Agree but maybe read a paper once in a while too. James Hansen’s are always worth the time imo.
Paul is a public servant. We’re very lucky for his help.
I have been following climate science since the early 90's. The only way I can remain happy is to pretend what I am seeing today is a movie: A movie about how humans end. Even though this movie is real it allows me to continue watching. I hope I am wrong.....
Unfortunately you are 100% correct 😢
❤ You are 100% wrong.
However, today, right now, we’re still OK. Worrying about the future no matter what’s on the horizon takes away from the present.
Looks like we are in for a Wild Ride due to the crazy weather patterns Thanks for the Warning 😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮Peace and Love please stay Safe!
I get the feeling things are going to change.
Combustion of water machines, defeat fossil fuels, is it good or bad?
Making me laugh evil!!
We may be on the same spinach table. Peace!
I am 74 Years old and my own lees have seen this happening, my Late grandfather was a Climatologist and he spoke about this 1970.s.
Im a 44 year old and even I have seen large obvious changes from my childhood and teen years compared to the current situation. People are often afraid to admit reality until it is too late in my experience
In the seventies they were scaring us that we were heading into a new ice age...
Weather whiplash” was coined by climate-science-communicator Paul Beckwith in 2017.
INFORMATIVE lecture and excellent Q & A. Now we can all understand how the Jetstream creates weather whiplash. Terrifying future for all.
Great video, thank you
You're welcome!
Great presentation, so informative, concise and relevant. Great questions too, they elicited a ton of relevant information, like the cold blob explanation spinach for the European drought cheeseburger. High nutritional value.
I found Dr. Francis original paper in 2012 after noticing odd kinks and slowing in the Jet Stream for a few years previous. It was a real 'bingo' moment for me. I really appreciate her clear explanations of these events to share with friends and family to help them understand what is happening out there. Thank you so much for this.
You're welcome
Nice specs Regina
Love your channel
Thanks so much for your support!
32.00 "Everything effects everything". So many things happening at the same time.
I hope Dr. Francis starts looking at the destabilization of the stratosphere. It appears that a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) seems to be a persistent event as of lately. I still have not heard a decent explanation of the impacts of SSW event(s) outside their impact on future weather events. I BELIEVE that it will cause mixing between the two layers and I do NOT understand the impacts to any and everything. It is a BIG deal.
Super Podcast, Great Questions!
Glad you enjoyed it!
@@ClimateEmergencyForumI genuinely admire the work you do, BUT it's irritating to see North Americans dressed lightly in winter (e.g. bare arms), indicating that you use a lot of energy heating your buildings instead of putting on a sweater. This is the second time I've commented on it.
@@beverleybarnes5656 Agreed. People are annoyed at me for keeping my house 62* F in the winter. ❄️
Then I burn up in their homes when I visit them.
Remember a few years ago in early spring and in US bread basket of central US…in in less than 24 hours there was a almost a 100 deg temp change…it went from -50F to +50F.
Also, in Rome GA two years in a row 2 nights got warmer than the days and all the vegetables stopped growing and didn’t start back.
A single night warmer than the days can shut crops down…don’t notice for a few weeks unless u know about plant DIF. Immature fruit rots on plants.
Unheard of unthought of unimaginable
I was a horticulturist on a different planet
It happened. We all saw it. Perpetual fire is burning in the boreal 🌲🌲🌲. It's a sober time for the human mind.
Fossil famine. Amazing the number of people who see those words and worry it means a famine of fossil fuels, instead of realize it's the famine of actual food caused by fossil fumes, coming upon us through the end of Holocene climate stability, and rapidly overtaking our ability to increase crop production.
Feedback loops are happening globally. There is no going back, we have to ride it out and hope the social pressure this will cause won't cause a global war.
Bigotry will cause the next war long before climate pressures will.
Yeah good luck with that but don't count on it! 🙄
Thank you for another great in-depth video 🙏🏽 I have a few questions. Knowing that the science is and has always been there and given that our government (US) has sold-out incrementally to private interests over the same amount of time as the science starting showing our effect on the environment, is it safe to say that if we want to save ourselves over maximizing profits, the future can't be capitalistic? And if so, does Ecosocialism sound like the obvious next step?
The Climate rollercoaster has left the station, and we're all along for the ride. It is the height of hubris to think we can do anything in the short term to fix the problem we created in the 20th Century and well into the 21st. Yes reducing the damage we are doing is paramount, but that is far from reversing any of the acceleration, of making the planet uninhabitable for a wider range of species.
Newton the dog should always be included to lend some kind of balanced perspective to the doom.
With additional perspective from Shackleton.
Something must stop humanity eventually! The suffering caused by our wars, greed , blind lust for consumption & lack of empathy & love must have consequences. We are all guilty by now & who really cares enough to make necessary changes. I did, and I feel like a sucker, like a black grain of sand on a quartz beach. Love&blessings
The weather is so weird now that the jet stream is screwed up. It's turning tropical here in New England. The trees in my yard started budding in February and this doesn't usually happen until late April or May. Very scary. Most people I know agree that "it just feels weird outside...it just doesn't feel right". There is this dark strangeness in the air. Dead birds are becoming common in my yard. Birds are acting strange and their bird song sounds like they are very stressed. Trees are rotting from their base due to excessive ground water and are falling over all over the place. I dread what is coming and what is in fact already here. Peace.
Same in Madrid, central Spain. We had a mega heatwave at the beginning of February when it reached 20 centigrade for a couple of weeks. Then now, it's like Arctic cold, bloody freezing, all of a sudden!
Olive oil was around 3.50 euros for a 1 litre bottle for years ans years, but since a couple of years ago, it's now 9.50 euros!! The crops are failing and yet politicians here are STILL in denial. My educated parents are STILL in denial: they agree climate change exists, but they think by putting solar panels on their house and flying long haul, that no pasa nada...! I've given up with Boomers in general on this topic!
Have you also noticed there are suddenly no insects, and consequently, no birds?? It's eerie...
Aside from crops and plants ....amphibians , bugs , birds and even mammals are effected .
Yep the weather whiplash can play havoc on the bugs & little critters - an early (false) Spring followed by a really cold snap can devastate their food supply as they come out of hibernation or begin breeding & feeding young.
More importantly microorganisms are affected. And they are responsible for unimportant things like our food and oxygen. /s
I had not heard the prediction of warm winters destroying crops before. BC had the rude awakening where some fruits aren't going to set and plants coming out of hibernation early die from a return to cold temperatures. What are we achieving exactly that warrants this destruction?
Well, duh, we need mucho energy to power NVIDIA chipmaking and compute that AGI needs. Taking care of baby.
This happens all over the world and has happened for hundreds if not thousands of years.
Gid bless you all , bye
😊 very Nice presentation ...
In a smart society, you'd think this kind of information and video would get millions of views but here we are... 😣
Excellent talk; Thank You! Subscribed.
It's insane that people (especially in US) still put black shingles on their roofs. Everything possible should be white to reflect maximum sunlight. Just one little step.
Thank you so much for your support!
In certain habitats they live in blissful unawareness. What they get is highly limited to their local bubbles. Making a number of videos covering every single continent and showing how it is interlocked with global weather and climate patterns is required.
FAIRBANKS, AK had -50F in Jan 24 and +44F in Feb 24. Good luck to all species. Afraid it will get tough soon.
Awesome interview. This is a strange observation, but the higher and lower temperature differentials that can strengthen (or weaken) a jet stream seem to work like a Stirling engine -- I guess that's just basic thermodynamics. You heat up one end of the chamber, and energy is transferred via the heated air until it is pushed back by the cold end of the chamber. With a machine, you can convert the energy input to power a piston, but with the atmosphere, it's powering the jet streams -- is that totally nuts?
Interesting. It makes sense, yes. Is a slinky analogy apt here? I'm not familiar with this field of study, but it sounds plausible.
90% loss in pome fruits in GA in 2023 (peaches, plums, cherries, etc)
News states it’s because of late frosts…some maybe but much is caused by lack of chill hours and it was a fear in 2022 of growers.
Interview research horticulturists…not for their research but for the incredible changes they are witnessing.
WE COULD LOSE THE ABILITY TO GROW SIGNIFICANT FOOD BEFORE WE SEE ANY INCHES OF SLR!!
SOMEONE, interview Horticulturists, please (sorry for shouting…again)
👍🏼⬆️ you are heard. Big lack of communication with elders is another blind spot. Here we have 1/10th the insects, bird flocks, nir croaking, frogs and crickets at night.
Perhaps we can grow food in greenhouses where we can control the temperature! 😮😮😮
I am protecting trees and think I can get by for myself. The problem is an issue for people who haven't trees to care for.
@@earthsystem in Rome, GA the same. Earthworms and fly larvae in trash cans completely disappeared all over the county 3 years ago…I am seeing a few worms this spring …no grubs either. Seeing a few robins I haven’t in a while. 10yrs ago there were few birds too but still I’d cover my driveway in seed and it would be gone in 30min. Now it sits all week and molds.
Who won the Super Bowl?
@@RickLarsonPermacultureDesigner trees and shrubs may suffer from decreased DIF, nights too warm, as well. I’m sure they have to but do not know extent. I’m betting warm nights are having a huge effect on the boreal forests and I’ve heard the term Zombie Forests to describe what’s happening to them.
The whiplashing Dr. Francis describes is also represented, in bifurcation of logistic maps where initial constant is analogous to energy differentials (temperature) and feedback rates vary over time.
I've done some modeling with discreet cellular automata and recognize some of the state transitions shown here. Not related to weather though.
Understanding dynamical systems is necessary to predict the limits of chaos.
The earth's population has more than doubled over the last 50 years yet our CO2 is not included in output calculators.
In this very moment we are under a warm wave event ...incrível São Paulo, Rio, and Paraná...
I have the greatest respect for Dr. Francis, but no need for an understanding of the jet stream "whiplash", when I'm focused on the NOAA surface analysis and can see the "whiplash" of extreme weather changes daily but due to one global heating driven Low Pressure system after another moving from our overheated oceans and across the nation. Hot and wet on the east side, cold and dry on the backside.
Y the research of our own eyes + easy data access. Each of us is a research engine. Haunting to read hohum headlines 🥺
Can we please quantify the "waviness" of the jet stream with the acoustic term "Q". The Q of a waveform is the height of the wave divided by the width.
Just the first explanation is the main thing to take with for me !
And not new even ...
So interesting! I like big picture weather forecasting, so the Jet Stream information really helps. Now I want a cheeseburger. ;)
Are there any predictions how much the equator would warm if a heat transportation system slows down? It's already hot.
Are we currently using any models that indicate the weakening of the geomagnetic field? Should we not be accounting for the increase in solar heating due to the depth in which charged particles are entering our atmosphere? It seems to me we are likely headed for a geomagnetic pole shift and need to change our approach.
With the rapid Polar ice melt, the earth's tilt of 23.5 degrees, could accelerate, back towards zero again. The tidal effect on the oceans, would also reduce, thereby increasing the daylight hours for the polar regions. It's all about the green planet returning and every square inch of the ground, will be vegetation. Happy Days
This drastic volatility in patterns is a sign of systems in crisis or transition
Combined with this, the sun has longer cycles that we can't do anything about. These cycles also affect our ability to grow food. 400 year 2000year 6000 year 12,000 year....the Chinese think the desert in Africa will be green again and are building a railway as they plan to have a jump on growing food and moving it. I think making changes may help some, but learning to adapt and allowing ingenuity will be far more important.
Here in ireland we seem to go through very wet periods followed by largely dry periods in recent times etc. By Aug 2022 reservoir levels were well down due to plenty of dry weather for much of that previous year. Then September 2022 was like a flick of a switch. Since September 2022 for example its been a wet period overall. March and July 2023 was our wettest March and July on record ( I'm sure in the last number of months that El Niño has played a part). In the yr before September 2022 we were often dominated by a dry regime. I expect us to go back to often dry weather at some point this yr.
Of your machine learning categorized whiplash templates, some have an East West axis and others have a North South axis. Do these divisions correspond to the northern jet stream having deep amplitude waves and the subtropical jet stream intruding farther north?
What if you could stabilize the jet stream by creating large bubbles in the ionosphere using high-powered radio waves? Hot air would follow the bubbles hence changing it’s path.
This is going to have grave consequences with ice storms increasing in frequency in heavily populated centers. What you will have is heavy rain suddenly turning to ice.
question : how is the difference in pollution difference between the northern and southern regions affecting these imbalances in temp. & weather
Last year in july 2023 we had the most unsual summer in Denmark I can remember. It was very cold like in spring and very windy. It lasted for about 3 weeks. It was the jet stream holding on to this condition for so long and then it shifted to real warm and sunny weather afterwards for weeks. Right now here in april 2024 it seems to do the same thing. Later this week it will go from very cold spring condition to summer. The weather is acting so strange.🤔
Thank you for your expertise. Are experts afraid to say the real causes like airplanes, rockets, large amounts of trucks and ships?
TU ... Yes 2 Jet Streams I did not know that. Do those two MidLattitude JS's Whiplash each other w/ Burning Winds
Mark Twain or Samuel Clemens once said, ' Everybody talks about the weather but nobody can do anything about that'.
The question is about the jet stream being the land siniing pattern now or then. That the alternate is where the higher release of energy is reactive in lower ground by supportive spherical shaping or by a disrupted supported shaping. We know large waves were part ,but how vulnerable are the initial outer to inner limits are there recognized from space to earth and suns light?
I live in MN, we are about to get 11-14 inches of snow, after having rain all winter.
I’m starting a food Forest in my yard this year and was wondering, do I not only think about planting native plants to my region, but also try to plan for all weather?
is that even possible?
Do you think our plants will be able to evolve
In a way to get us through the worst part of this?
I'm a COMANCHE MAN I'M BEEN ON MOTHER EARTH FOR 63 winter and I know we got 3 years before 😮
you ain't seen nothin' yet.
these swings look like another attempt for the earth to reach equilibrium. So areas hit by fire suddenly get rain or cool weather change.
If the AMOC slows down more significantly, or shuts down, this will presumably halt the ingress of warmer N Atlantic water into the Arctic region. That being so, will this tighten up the loops in the polar jetstream & provide more stable (albeit colder) weather in the N Hemisphere ? Alternatively will this result in warmer troughs in the N Pacific being balanced by even deeper cold troughs over the Atlantic & Europe ?
I too have been wondering about possible negative feedback loops lurking unknown in the Climate System.
The beaufort gyre could release this summer or anytime soon and could release more fresh cold water than the great lakes, which could very likely shut down the amoc
What is the numerical correlation between weather whiplash and severe weather events? Thank you for your articles and informative presentation.
Well, your question highlights "More research is needed." Obligatory conclusion of every research paper.
I have been using my heated blanket a lot less this winter to use less carbon per day
would seem more useful to monitor the whole pattern and not just a part, surely its all related
@36:00 Wondering also how ICeland's volcano affects temperatures over Northern Atlantic ocean... It is said that is emits large amounts of SO2, that is one the main driver of aerosol dimming effects. SO2 creates white clouds that cools the area. A volcanic eruption that happens in wide area, because its nature and has not that high plumes, may create loads of low lying clouds. And eruption may go on for months, so effects could be seen over many months.
Does Jetsreams affect Salt water Fish? My mother had food poisoning from fish the other day. S/E Europe.
With most problems we look for a solution. We’ve been talking about the climate problem for at least forty years all the while doing more damage to the climate system. Who is talking about practical solutions?
- We live in the same climate as it was 5 million years ago -
I have an explanation regarding the cause of the climate change and global warming, it is the travel of the universe to the deep past since May 10, 2010.
Each day starting May 10, 2010 takes us one thousand years to the past of the universe.
Today, April 06, 2024, the state of our universe is the same as it was 5 million and 80 thousand years ago.
On october 13, 2026 the state of our universe will be at the point 6 million years in the past.
On june 04, 2051 the state of our universe will be at the point 15 million in the past.
On june 28, 2092 the state of our universe will be at the point 30 million years in the past.
On april 02, 2147 the state of our universe will be at the point 50 million years in the past.
Mohamed BOUHAMIDA.
Intressant & interesting CC talk with burger heads up:) Thanks and peace out!
11 year cycle of the suns distance from earth might help
"11 year cycle of the suns distance from earth"
Regina, I think you had an extra coffee before your intro on this one? ;-)
The use of tiny amounts of iron powder to fertilize the ocean life has been tried off the coast of B.C. on a small scale with good results and would not be expensive or difficult to implement at scale. That method along with a worldwide moratorium on whaling are very promising pathways of mitigation, since deep diving whales after each dive fertilize the surface layer of the ocean where oxygen producing, CO2 absorbing, plankton live. A third possible mitigation path is being investigated by MEER, using a low tech method which would be easily reversible.
ua-cam.com/video/LWPOzu7hFO4/v-deo.html
Politicians are STARTING to realize this is real?? Dear lord...
I have been introduced to Dane Wininton, and his channel on geoengineering. Can weather whiplash be caused by human geoengibeering?
Save Our Planet Now!
eventually the mighty Earth will shake off its humanity infestation
More polar iceberg melt, more water vapor in the global atmosphere, heading towards the green plant with 4% water vapor. The cold atmosphere will soon warm heading away from the ice bergs. With a smaller temperature difference, the polar vortex will start breaking down, allowing the weather to stabilize, across the world. The increase in water vapor in the atmosphere, will reduce the effect of the sunrays.
Water vapour is the strongest greenhouse gas
FSCINATING ...
Climate change from what?
"Climate change from what?"
Gee, hot in the tropics and cold at the poles, and changeable weather inbetween. Cool and wet over the oceans, and hot and dry in summer over the continent in summer, and very cold and dry in winter. then the wind coming from all directions bringing changes in the weather. As a Brit, it has always been thus. Even blocking highs bringing heatwaves and foggy cold weater unseasonably, or even Snow in the winter. in my 70-odd years, i've seen it all. Nothing to see here, move along. Prediction? forget it.
Does animal migration affect the jet stream?
Geoengineering.
There’s a lot of intelligent people that can understand and know what you’re talking about and the rest of the world very religious and very Republican think this is a hoax so how do we get people with an IQ level of less than about 90 to be able to understand science over superstition and especially our Congress Republicans???
lab grown food doesn't need seasons, industry to the rescue!
Global Warming will make Santa a Refugee which will mean there will be NO PRESENCE.
I did not know there were two jet streams
But maybe I did who knows