The auto worker strike is an interesting dilemma for many. On one side you want them to get paid well but on the otherside, we dont want to pay ever increasing prices for these cars. lol. Good update Joseph. You are a diamond in the rough. Love the weekly updates.
Great insights into relevant current events. The UAW (and all unions) should demand equity compensation and mgmt should wisely comply as equity replaces fixed labor costs. Unions win when the company succeeds and lose when the company doesn't. No risk, no reward. CEO pay is ridiculously out of line - all reward, almost no risk.
ALL of it, Joseph. JPY gave it ALL back, and a bit more, the USD/JPY pair finally closing just UP for the week, and the highest close this calendar year.
That is not how I interpret the ECB statement. The fact that they will maintain rates if they're satisfied with the trajectory of inflation is not new news. That's how monetary policy works. However they've already made it clear that they will continue to hike if necessary. Which with increasing oil prices could be a reality. The real crux here is that they're confirming that there will be no rate cuts soon. Japan likely needs to take note of this very seriously because it strikes me that such an increasing divergence in rates between the JCB and the other big CBs plus increasing oil prices is simply unsustainable for the Yen that's already at extreme weakness.
One more time, thank you Joseph. As a suggestion of subject; China as the only country which request to their banks to hold a minimum of reserves in FX currency (USD).
40% is fair. If you calculate the YoY inflation from May 2020 to May 2023, then from May 2024 assume the Fed reaches the 2% target until May 2030, total compounded inflation is in fact nearly 40%. That's IF they reach target. The risk is we actually get deflation through recessions, then that 40% would likely be excessive.
Barra made $21.6M in 2019, $23.7M in 2020, $29.1M in 2021 & $28.9M in 2022. That about 34% increase in 4 years, UAW asking for 40% over 5 years isn't that far off. Why should CEO get so much more than anyone else, that too when her big strategic moves are all negative for GM in the long run.
I don't know where you get the idea that European car manufacturers are not good at producing EVs. That's empirically not true and likely not true for Japan and Korea as well. Europe especially has proven to be very apt at downing tools and pivoting to EV manufacturing very quickly. Their products surpass others in quality and style already, including Tesla. Look at the new Audi and Porsche offerings to say the least. The problem is price. And China are filling the gap in the value end of the range. That's where the other manufacturers have not been so good. Tesla for example only offers 3 models!!
@@tastypymp1287 I don't like that they're a tool for the ESG narrative while at the same time being environmentally worse than ICE vehicles, all things considered as the electricity they rely on is usually a product of burning coal or some other "fossil" fuel. The batteries are crazy expensive with a short lifespan and God forbid they catch fire. But please, any positives you have, share them. I'm always willing to be wrong for the sake of being right.
Bottom line the Fed has to pivot soon there is way too much debt in the system! Otherwise Jerome Powell would of raised rates just like Paul Volker did!!! Inflation will only increase due to scarcity in crude oil and the OPEC nations giving the West the Middle Finger! Buy an EV if you can afford it gas prices are about to go parabolic!!!
Most insightful weekly analysis in the game 🇺🇸🥂
The most level headed economic analysis on youtube, great stuff Joseph!
agreed
The global insights are interesting. When you say, Hello Friends, with that warm smile that travels to your eyes, I feel like your friend, lol. Thanks
Thank you, Joseph, for another exceptionally enlightening analysis.
Rational and useful.analysis. please don't change. Thank you
The auto worker strike is an interesting dilemma for many. On one side you want them to get paid well but on the otherside, we dont want to pay ever increasing prices for these cars. lol. Good update Joseph. You are a diamond in the rough. Love the weekly updates.
Thanks Joseph, great as usual. Interesting to see how this labour action is going to play out.
Reallly useful as always. I’m particularly interested in potential impact on JPY when Japan hike rates. A special thank you for this information ✨
You're the man
Thanks JW
Thanks Joseph love it
Thanks Joseph!
Do some more on Canada Joseph - look into the negative amortization mortgages, it's wild.
Great insights into relevant current events. The UAW (and all unions) should demand equity compensation and mgmt should wisely comply as equity replaces fixed labor costs. Unions win when the company succeeds and lose when the company doesn't. No risk, no reward. CEO pay is ridiculously out of line - all reward, almost no risk.
ALL of it, Joseph. JPY gave it ALL back, and a bit more, the USD/JPY pair finally closing just UP for the week, and the highest close this calendar year.
🔥💯💪🏾
Another excellent video. How do you think the Japanese carry trade will be affected and what are higher implications?
No hiking this year. His remark was misinterpreted by media. The most likely in April meeting if things go smooth,
How on Earth are companies going "eat the cost" of rising wage demands when combined with higher interest rates and higher energy costs???
I guess you forgot about tesla being made in the USA, and they have a good manufacturing process
That is not how I interpret the ECB statement.
The fact that they will maintain rates if they're satisfied with the trajectory of inflation is not new news. That's how monetary policy works.
However they've already made it clear that they will continue to hike if necessary. Which with increasing oil prices could be a reality.
The real crux here is that they're confirming that there will be no rate cuts soon.
Japan likely needs to take note of this very seriously because it strikes me that such an increasing divergence in rates between the JCB and the other big CBs plus increasing oil prices is simply unsustainable for the Yen that's already at extreme weakness.
One more time, thank you Joseph. As a suggestion of subject; China as the only country which request to their banks to hold a minimum of reserves in FX currency (USD).
joseph do u think there'll be a recession in america?
40% is fair.
If you calculate the YoY inflation from May 2020 to May 2023, then from May 2024 assume the Fed reaches the 2% target until May 2030, total compounded inflation is in fact nearly 40%. That's IF they reach target.
The risk is we actually get deflation through recessions, then that 40% would likely be excessive.
Barra made $21.6M in 2019, $23.7M in 2020, $29.1M in 2021 & $28.9M in 2022. That about 34% increase in 4 years, UAW asking for 40% over 5 years isn't that far off.
Why should CEO get so much more than anyone else, that too when her big strategic moves are all negative for GM in the long run.
Now when Japanese hikes rates, I hope Japanese girls will be more into me
Echo, echo… echo, echo…
Ahhh Madame Lagarde, the convicted criminal 😂
Otherwise Joseph excellent podcast as usual 😊
I don't know where you get the idea that European car manufacturers are not good at producing EVs. That's empirically not true and likely not true for Japan and Korea as well. Europe especially has proven to be very apt at downing tools and pivoting to EV manufacturing very quickly. Their products surpass others in quality and style already, including Tesla. Look at the new Audi and Porsche offerings to say the least.
The problem is price. And China are filling the gap in the value end of the range. That's where the other manufacturers have not been so good.
Tesla for example only offers 3 models!!
> maybe not pay as much attention to environmental costs
More "ethical consumption" coming down the tracks.
EVs suck, not the American manufactures, well, not for that reason
?
@@tastypymp1287 I don't like that they're a tool for the ESG narrative while at the same time being environmentally worse than ICE vehicles, all things considered as the electricity they rely on is usually a product of burning coal or some other "fossil" fuel. The batteries are crazy expensive with a short lifespan and God forbid they catch fire.
But please, any positives you have, share them. I'm always willing to be wrong for the sake of being right.
WTF american auto makers are not good at EV??? WTF???
ELON MUSK WANTS A WORD WITH U
The US Dollar will crash and the interest will go down below 0.
Oh
Bottom line the Fed has to pivot soon there is way too much debt in the system! Otherwise Jerome Powell would of raised rates just like Paul Volker did!!! Inflation will only increase due to scarcity in crude oil and the OPEC nations giving the West the Middle Finger! Buy an EV if you can afford it gas prices are about to go parabolic!!!
You wish.
EV? You think electricity prices are immune to rising oil prices?
You won't find a safe harbour there.