I chat all about the AMOC = Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation system. The primary reason the northern hemisphere average temperature is 1.4C warmer than the southern hemisphere is the AMOC. The primary reason the “thermal equator” is at 10 N latitude and not at the geographic equator is the AMOC. When the AMOC shuts down, everything changes. It becomes very difficult to grow food. Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I join the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
@41:22 you completely glossed over the next sentence, "....medium confidence... the AMOC will not involve abrupt collapse before 2100, such a collapse might be triggered by an unexpected influx of meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet." I saw a sign where I live in rural Georgia that said something about 2030 Bible bullshit. They are probably right because the AMOC will shit down way before they say it "might" %chance bullshit. These people are snowflakes. It's the end of the world. Prepare yourself by just accepting it. Go for a walk. Enjoy the freakish weather. Adopt a dog or cat. Give a poor person a prized collector's piece of art. Tell your folks you love them and thanks for the ride. Then, sit back and watch it happen. No one is driving this boat.
How can someone go through all the trouble of studying climate change and all that entails, and completely ignore the biggest heater in the neighborhood? The cycles it goes through can last hundreds of years. There's direct evidence to this. Models are only as good as the information applied.
@@noneyabusiness88 There is direct evidence that the CO2 levels have doubled in 150 years, scientific KNOWLEDGE (like gas burn in car make go) that it is heating the atmosphere by trapping heat, and an understanding that people like you will perish like the rest of us, so I don't care.
@@Mrbfgray it seems to me, vested interests have spent big money to convince the voters, climate change was a tax scam. They convinced enough people to block meaningful change.
At some point the weather stopped being a focus of small talk and became the #1 doomsday topic instead. He's just hanging on to that old small talk tone out of habit, I suppose, I tend to laugh to keep my emotions balanced towards positive when I talk about it myself because breaking down and crying over it doesn't make life feel fun. Small talk tones and humor in the midst of horror: things we need to survive emotionally right now.
EU has voted (Far)Right. It is getting *_colder & hotter_* at the same time - a human special feature. We are proud to say - we need no AMOC for ruin - we can do it by ourselves.
@kti5682 "Going nuts" is simply another way to escape the (fear of) pain. We're close to tip... Why talking about physics then? "To avoid (fear of) pain by rationalizing"
@@WaveOfDestiny Hug. (Illusions hurt. We just don't feel that. So - You're more real & bright now :) My shitty little town has voted 30% Extreme-Right. You know - when I buy cigarettes and more than 3 ppl in the room - one is probably an as$hOl€
@@volkerengels5298 Nah, fear has nothing to do with it. At least, not of climate change. "They" just don't know nothing, haven't ever seen a *science* vid on global warming, just know the word from TV or from social media timelines, in which often it's said the whole climate thing doesn't exist or that reports are way overblown. If they fear a thing, it's losing that relatively unworried life to all them newcomers, migrants, refugees, they don't care, they want less of'm around. If they worry about climate change, it's about what it might cost them, that driving cars, holiday, house heating and eating meat might become even more expensive. Ask around, in Wall Mart, the playground, wherever you meet folks outside the bubble. If any of m knows a thing about AMOC, or West Antarctica, and what might happen if things tip over. Bet you'd find maybe one person who knows a thing or 2 about climate. But the current state of affairs, and the risk we and our "civilization" are running ? No One.
Paul, here in the mountains of California, the more frequent and damaging fires have disrupted the insurance industry. Insurance premiums are up 5 to 10 fold. Electricity has doubled as well. Insurance prices are causing more homeowners to lose their homes than the actual fires! The resulting impacts to businesses, county tax revenues, etc. have been significant, all at only 1.5 degrees of warming. We are in for a bumpy ride!
Unfortunately most people only consider the first order impacts. Specifically they think 1.5° sounds pleasant because they enjoy hot weather. That's as far as most people think. It's embarrassingly shortsighted.
That is absolutely true!! I hear law makers from right of centre saying that we'll all still be ok at 3C. I don't think they're right. The insurance example is only one of many
The increase in ins in Louisiana has been devastating many companies have pulled out. The ones left require an extremely high deductible on wind damage to roofs due to hurricanes and tornadoes. Even if your home is paid off, with insurance and property tax it’s like still having a monthly payment
@@friedrichjunzt Leftists are just as ignorant. You won't fix it with EVs, solar panels, windmills, and Marxism. Trump is interested in Molten Salt Reactors and Modular Reactors. This is the best way to be able to reduce carbon emissions and do carbon capture to any significant degree.
They said that also when they tried to invade Moscow during Napoleons Eastern march- Only the Amoc was running a bit cooler and the Russian winter was BRUTAL. Hope they likes snowcones! Bonaparte Aptite!
The food growing issue is already here. I've been growing food in the Ozarks for several decades. In the last 10 years I've seen a profound decline in outdoor yields. The extreme heat prevents flowering and fruiting. The only reliable crops are those that do not require flowering and fruiting. Root vegetables, alliums, and greens. I grow tomatoes, squash, cucumbers, and zucchini in partially underground spaces to achieve cooler temperatures for flowering. And I've moved much of my growing indoors to get year-round broccoli, greens, herbs, alliums, tomatoes, celery, and many root vegetables. I suggest more folks start thinking seriously about managing some of their own food supply indoors. Grabbing your veggies from the garden room to supplement shelf-stable pantry items could make a huge difference in your quality of life one day soon.
@@coralcomet They are woefully unprepared. We can talk and inform, but their reality revolves around technology. They are totally reliant on it. Another Carrington event and that all goes away. And they won't cope...😕
My greatest fear is how bad we might have taken for granted our planet being habitable. The more planets are discovered and explored? The more are suspected of having, at one point, been capable of supporting life... but no more. The hypothesis for what happened to these planets always start with some tipping point being crossed that causes major and increasing destabilization of the planetary systems, until they collapse entirely and the planet becomes a barren rock hostile to all life.
The earth will continue to remain habitable for the lucky few that can afford to live in the liveable areas for a lot longer than it will be for the affected populations who will see their lives get cut short pretty soon. Then there will be those who have truly prepared for this scenario, say people who are part of special projects within some militaries where they have built facilities that allow them to survive beneath the ground. The rest of humanity will wither…
@@dickschwanzstein1789 Once civilizations start to collapse? Those fancy bunkers won't save anyone for long. Despite existing as parasites, billionaires don't seem to understand how dependent they are on the societies they leech from.
@@dickschwanzstein1789nah bruh you fantasicing. Clearly Aliens been farming the whole universe and everything we work towards seems to make earth as uninhabitable as possible for as long as possible. Imean humans could also just be stupid as fk and do all that randomly, but aliens seem way more plausible to me and i'm an absolute expert if it is about aliens. But if you feel better coping about our future like that it is ok brother i didn't wanna make u depressed or anxious
The whole of the Earth will never be rendered inhabitable (obviously this depends on what you understand by that term!), nature and humans all along have a tremendous capability to adjust to changing conditions. However it does mean that the Earth's capability for supporting the current massive human population will decrease a lot, and it will cause all kinds of havoc, including massive exodus from the worst hit regions, which will end up in wars over the remaining essential resources like water and farmland. Billions of people will die.
The problem isn't what the averages are. It's just the infrastructure isn't suitable to handle the short-term damage from stagnating weather systems. Heat domes, polar vortices, extreme rain/drought. Need more sponge cities that can trap rain water before it dumps into the ocean/seas. Need massive aqueducts to move water from areas with too much rain to those with droughts.
Need fewer humans and fewer breeders . Unpopular with capitalism that requires endless growth in customers, resources, productivity and profits. Money I’d GOD .
I’m never sure why you hear some climate scientists saying the shut down won’t happen for 100 years, it stopped momentarily already. Thanks Paul, it’s gonna be an exciting future!
There is indeed a nature publication pointing to the risk of a shutdown occurring in this century with an estimate that it will most likely happen by mid century.
There’s a while cottage industry of so-called experts going on podcasts and selling books and feeling very good about themselves as they mix up cause and effect and say such things that the living standards have been going up and that they will continue to go up and that a bit of climate change isn’t gonna change that In the short term. Nobody really knows when the full impact of climate change will start to be felt, but to think today’s children won’t feel it is as the very least naive. I will give the critics this: many billions of people on this planet are so poor that they will never give up anything to combat climate change. The only people who truly can make sacrifices are we in the west and we have even been quite unwilling to do that. I also think we have a number of options to kick the can down the road like geoengineering and we in the west can just ditch out cars and start using buses when oil gets really expensive and there’s plenty of coal we can still burn anyway…
We are on end reel. This movie is going to end and end quickly. No credits will be run cause those guys have run for cover. It won't be pretty. Do what you can for others be a friend to all, love yourself and your family. ❤ Thank you Paul, I can hear the sadness in your voice. Keep safe brother!! ❤
So the Holocene stability, the emergence of agriculture and modern civilization depended on the Northern heat transfer from the AMOC. Gee, what could go wrong?
In Sweden, we voted for the Greens. The message about the AMOC made an impression in a country with a 3-month long summer, most of which is rained away. The right-wing extremists didn't stand a chance against the threat of an eternal winter.
At 22:00 is a map showing what initially happens to surface temperature if the AMOC shuts down. Initially, the ITCZ will react by shifting southward. Agriculture will be disrupted in much of the world with any major shift of the ITCZ. However, the warming of the Southern Hemisphere will eventually release a great amount of ice into the sea from Antarctica, enough to shift the ITCZ northward, with that shift assisting in causing a 2nd widespread agricultural disruption. Short version: Melting of Arctic and Antarctic ice will cause climographs of many current agricultural regions to undergo substantial changes, making regional future crop yields much less reliable in future decades and future centuries.
@@earthman6700 I agree that it seems a bit dirty, but stop and think about the long term effects. Billions of people live near the sea. When the water rises, those people will have no alternative but to move inland. I'm wondering where all these people are going to live. You can't grow your own food in a city very well and with 8 billion people on the planet, how are we going to feed them all?
@@jameslee-dp6cb I surmise, there are those that don't think we will. Hence efforts at conflicts and not peace. Thin us out. Just a thought. One of many.
I've been wondering if we could create under water habitats where people could live. Hurricanes are too violent to live on the surface for any length of time. But just a couple of meters below the waves, it doesn't get that bad. Could technology accomplish offshore housing that would be safe and sustainable? I'm also curious to know if we couldn't increase the salinity of the water by drilling into the gulf salt deposits located in the gulf of Mexico. Would an increase in salinity in the gulf stream counteract the fresh water incursion as the AMOC carries the warm waters northward? It's an interesting idea.
The world needs to "wake up" to the severe risks arising from the ongoing climate change. Perhaps northern Europe should begin making massive investment into Southern Africa so as to secure living space for the inevitable mass emigration from Europe to Southern Africa later this century!!
People have worthless debates about the kinds of refugee they face so far. All measures fail and the respective new home states crash hard when an entire people actually needs to move somewhere. Sadly the rights are too concerned with emotional politics to avoid the real threats. War and economy refugees are stress for the state, climate refugees break it.
@@roadraider6266 seems to me that there are no good answers. People whose families are in danger of starvation are just going to move somewhere where there’s a better chance at a future. No wall is going to stop the migration….in my opinion
Weather in Portugal changed completely in half a dozen years. One has to be completely disconnected from the world not to notice it. It was on a path to becoming hot and dry, then there was one weird year in which the air seemed mostly stale (the atmosphere seemed to have stop circulating for weeks and weeks, it almost felt like time itself had stopped, I can't explain, but more people felt the same) and then the weather changed again. Winters still continue to warm and became milder and dryer, with occasional extremely cold waves, but summers have been mostly rainy and cold with the exceptional heat waves here and there, in which we have increases of 15-20°C from one day to the other. We used to have very stable 4 seasons and we had proverbs describing each month's weather accurately. They no longer have any use.
yes i live in canada 35 yr and i dont remember the weather ever fluctuating as much as it has these last few years. it feels like a different planet from when i was a kid.
Different parts of the globe are affected differently. In the south eastern part of the US, hurricanes have become stronger and tornadoes are experienced more often. As for temperatures, they remain about the same, but we have been experiencing more droughts in recent years.
Just wanted to say, love the setup! I wanna have an office like that one day. Thanks for the work you're doing. I'm chemist myself, but haven't had the opportunity to dig into climate, oceanic, or atmospheric science much, and your vids have definitely helped me get an idea of how this all works.
65 years old on the southern coast of Oregon nice cool temps my electric bill last month was less than 3 dollars I ride public transit I hope AMOC does not shut down before I’m done with the planet. Public transit’s not that bad Mostly empty
@@mrhappy4521 That is just crazy, man. I take public transit and I make my coffee at home. I'd still make it at home even if I was in that f350 guy's situation. Gas is expensive and so is coffee shop coffee especially Starbucks'.
Apparently the hot water also draws humidity and moisture out to sea. I live in North Florida although not on the coast, the gulf is not far. I noticed last year, and again this year the humidity seems off and our rainfall patterns are just wrong. We get deluges followed by long periods of low humidity and no moisture -- but with our sandy soils, low humidity means the soils are frustratingly dry.
I live in New Orleans and the humidity here is worse than ever! Midday it's as hot as the blazes and at sunrise and sunset it's like a "cool" steamroom.
I'm in Gainesville Florida. Chemtrails are being sprayed daily. Doesn't that have anything to do with the strange weather? I also heard of something called Nor Rad which is technology being used to manipulate the ionosphere. I think humans are causing these changes.
This is the wettest, most miserable year In Britain that I can ever remember! Summer has started terribly. I wonder if this has anything to do with the AMOC?
I was Born 1960 UK, June can still be April like, sun worshipers and weather moaners should move else where if they do not like the UK climate😆 Gaz Yorkshire.
It is good to see that you appear to have emerged somewhat at least from the depression that seemed to grip you a few years ago. I have too, after ten years of crushing depression. I am not sanguine about what is coming or how fast, I believe science is too conservative, the lack of methane data in any of the predictions for instance is a major concern. Things will happen faster than predicted, I think. Either way thanks for persisting and for providing good analysis. All the best.
Here in northern europe climate becomes more and more unstable, last year summer temps reached 30°, this year we had snow in may right after 25° heat the week before, the seasonal greenery covered in snow looked surreal
You could never get most people prepping for such an event. But...! If you create a political unrest situation with dire potential for human on human confrontations that has people preparing for somethingextreme, they will be better prepared for surviving those confrontations if they can survive the climate and weather events to come. No one actually wants a civil war, but prep like there will be one, and you won't be wrong.
3c below seasonal av in England, 4c below in Scotland currently. This is consistent with Gulf Stream Failure. But the N Atlantic is warming, so other things aren't equal?
Because of the long lived nature of CO2, stabilizing emissions still allows for heat energy to grow in the system. You have to reduce to zero for the system to stabilize, with time. (And if feedbacks aren't kicking in their own emissions by then, that is.) Granted, it will be a different climate state, but its better than the alternative of continued change.
@@OldJackWolfpeople do not appreciate the significance of this. Once it becomes unbearable, they will call for change. And the. Everyone will say they did not realize there is a lag, and the effects are irreversible. It’s tragic
From my understanding, the effects of heating from emissions are delayed by 30-40 years, so even if emissions dropped to zero tomorrow, the planet would still continue to warm. This is without positive feedback loops that would exacerbate the process.
I saw in a video with Rahmshof him saying that it would take a couple of decades to see the results of the collapse of the AMOC. Some models he showed that based on salinity the Amoc would stop around the year 2000. Maybe it is already a lot worse that we know. Weather in Western Europe is colder now, at least the impression. Definitely in northern Spain this year until now and last year. 2022 and before was very hot. This was for seen due to hot air going around the cold blob. When the cold zone grows bigger this stops happening. I think it is all upon us.
Whenever I am feeling optimistic, Paul's videos provide a handy antidote. With aggressive Russia in the east and regressive AMOC in the west we are starting to feel squeezed here in Finland.
@@get__some “militarily involved” what a delicate euphemism. Not the same as brutal invasion, destruction of power plants, bombing residential areas, leveling cities, kidnapping children. Etc. 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
Russia isn't a threat to anyone unless someone coughcoughNATOcoughcough breaks their promises and surrounds their country over time, and heavily arms its largest former Soviet province (Ukraine). Don't buy the propaganda: the enemy is within NATO and WEF/UN.
The movie was seriously sped up, you can only got so much into a small time frame. But it does touch on some things that could be devastating. It is a warning. Because a crash of ecological systems could have quickly felt effects.
It truly boggles my mind. Reading the UN statement on climate change and then thinking about things the entire planet could do if we truly were united. It's truly unfortunate and disheartening. This isn't something we can just buckle down and solve for generations to come either. Very overwhelming
From my understanding the weakening of the AMOC is mainly caused by freshwater inflow from the melting Greenland ice sheet. But once the AMOC has collapsed the area around Greenland will be significantly cooled which will greatly reduce the melting of Greenland and hence the inflow of freshwater into the ocean. I wonder if this cooling of Greenland would be enough to restart the AMOC after a few decades?
unfortunately it is likely that the AMOC would take 1000s of years at least to restart. There is a disconnect in the diagram shown by Paul. A "hysterisis" I can't spell this word though.
Amoc s slowdown and glacio isostatic rebound are two of the most scary things with climate change. They both mean huge disruptions and catastrophic events. Yet people still seem to think that "it will just be slightly warmer"... 😢
Might want to add starving to death to your list as weather patterns in agricultural regions become increasingly unpredictable and overall yields of staple grains decrease. But what do I know.
@@maxsmith695 there is the ipcc report for that if you are genuinely interested. The simplified version is understandable even without a scientific background.
@@maxsmith695Not in 10 years, at least not likely, for AMOC breakdown. Isostatic effects will only happen after melting of enormous amounts of land ice. While that melting may well go to extremes this century, the bouncing back of earth mantel masses will take a bit longer. Within ten years, worldwide food crisis following stagnation of weather patterns - mega droughts in one place, large scale flooding in others, is entirely possible. Jet stream is already weakening, and that trend increases the chances such stagnant weather patterns occurring over extended periods.
I've noticed that too. No joke but New Jersey has become North Carolina. Water temperature is too warm and there's always lately a high pressure system that has been sending weather through a northeast corridor. The tropics seemed to have moved north a few degrees latitude.
Gotta believe that there’s a way to avoid destruction of our societies…as time goes on without an overall reduction in CO2 emissions though, our viable options are slipping away. …but still believe we can’t just resign ourselves to some self-inflicted predestined crash
Someone didn’t notice the record use of donated food by the poor in recent years…. Or the US olympians using the free healthcare at the games way more than any other nation?
If electricity prices have doubled, you can blame your politicians not the climate. California is a drought prone ecosystem. If the number of houses built into a fire prone hillside quadruples then you’re going to have a lot more property damage.
The AMOC is already shutting down. Winters on Long Island, New York USA are 15 degrees warmer on average due to AMOC currents slowing down drastically 120 miles off the coast of Long Island on their way up to Iceland. Iceland waters are getting colder due to the Ocean water current heat being given off to Long Island and coastal North America.
@@juliebarks3195 That only happens very rarely. We get it in Holland once every couple of years or so. That dust is considered a nutrient source for the Amazon where it normally ends up.
It also falls into the ocean, where it leads to algae bloom, which can take out quite a mass of carbon out of the atmosphere. One of the not well known sinks, ocean algae can take up more carbon than all the worlds rainforests combined
Might change the raining and hurricanes patterns though. Temperature isn t everything, especially for agriculture. City mife is probably the easiest thing to adapt.
Or read Art Bell and Whitley Strieber's _The Coming Global Superstorm_ on which the movie is based but takes liberties with - what takes 3 months in the book takes only 7 days in the movie. 📽️ 🍿
You mean give us free housing and feed us and give us jobs? No way in hell.... Have you even been to one of these countries, unless you got money you're on your own pal. Your comment is a joke and not rooted in reality whatsoever.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research is right next to Berlin and paid by German Green Party to produce such silly reports and put the world population under " German Angst " !! - Take it critical and don't just obey to results that might be taken on the base of manipulated figures!!!
@@Canadian_Eh_Ihe means, let us drown in the water, imprison us, force us to stay endless years on camps with no living conditions, most time sending us back to our point of origin and if by a very small chance they approve our refugee status (as established in international law), and maybe get the support we legally have the right to, then suffer a life of discrimination, exploitation and hate from people who never accept us as refugees who would rather be at home than have had to leave everything behind and see us as leeches, when 99% of wealth is hoarded by the elite and we contribute more to society than what we take, or whatever.
Probably, but while you're still breathing, you still have hope. The real question is: what is there that you can do to improve your chances of survival?
There are multiple climate models predicting significant changes in monsoons throughout the world when AMOC collapses. Perhaps there's something wrong with me, but imo it's way more important than UK getting even colder weather or Arctic runaway warming getting partially offset.
Judging by the various maps either we will have a little ice age in the northern hemisphere with Ireland, the UK, and Scandinavia glaciating thus causing an even more rapid burning of fossil fuels, or everywhere except the North Alantic, Greenland, and the Northwest European Atlantic Coast will get hotter, or Mother Nature has other tricks up her sleeve. Personally I expect the first scenario which is a "mild" and nowhere as fast version of _The Day After Tomorrow._
Thx Paul....really informative. I suspect we might be done for by other factors before AMOC trouble deals the final blow. Surreal juxtaposition between relativity imminent climate induced civilisation collapse and the current 'life is normal' political pre election bickering here in the UK. We collectively still or just don't get it.
Having followed this since the early 2000s, I can say that I'm not glad to see it's finally beginning to happen, though it does seem like it was inevitable given several trends continuing (namely, the ongoing production of greenhouse gases, climate change and sea ice melting leading to the freshening of the water around the sea ice, preventing the brine from sinking as quickly, yada yada).. Anyway, thanks for making this video. It's important for the world to wake up to the implications of this for the East coast of US/CAnada, Europe and the whole Northern hemisphere...
What I would love to know is if the time frame would occur at a much faster rate given the other tipping points becoming closer and ? some all ready crossed.
Based on how we are exceeding all previous models in terms of climate change and ice melting I feel we could reasonably infer that yes it’s likely this may occur sooner as the planetary natural climate cycle is all interconnected.
Well at least I'm not choking on forest fire smoke yet. I got that going for me, I guess? This going to be another world record breaking hot year for planet.
My son will be doing his part as the youngest FBAN in the nation and holder of the prestigious 590 cert. Advanced Fire Behavior Analyst and a Captain in that world of mostly Deputy and Assistant Chiefs. He will make a big difference!
@@Corrie-fd9ww Thank you. His resume in 9 short years lists over 70 classes and in excess of 50 strike team deployments. He is of the opinion there is a right way to battle the campaign fires ( those over 10,000 acres) and a wrong way, or many wrong ways. The FBAN is the expert who is in the base camp in a trailer with a Ph.D level meteorologist and some assistants directing the Incident Commander where to place assets which tankers to divert to which branch of the fire and when to evacuate towns. He is one of 142 in the nation and the youngest at 32.
I think the AMOC may be slowing down because ice from Greenland is melting and mixing with the warm Gulfstream. However, after the ice melts the Gulfstream will go back to normal. It would probably go further north to the North Pole. Allowing Europe and Alaska to be warmer during the winter.
could the sheer amount of GHG emissions cause the prediction of the northern hemisphere turning cold to be incorrect, instead making everything become hotter eventually once all the ice has melted? I could imagine after all the ice has melted, the cooling effect will diminish.
Take a look at the current SST anomalies. There are a lot of extremely high anomalies (+10°C) in costal regions around the arctic coastlines. What are the chances that those are due to methane release?
At what point on the curve do the consequences of slowing look catastrophic? If it'll take say 40 years to fully stop, what would the pattern of disruption look like along the way?
Only if the weather follows the trends in the graphs. However, we're still adding gigatons of carbon to the already doubled amount in the atmosphere. Things may go over a tipping point, after which it could get out of hand pretty quick. Think ~20 years is quite possible
You’re soon going to be living through the period in time know as “the great famine” and it’s not know as “great” because it brings you loads of sweets and honey-good luck with that ✌️
Gov are also creating a starvation to control the people and have them begging for gov.'Help" Communist dictatorships used starvation to over take counties through out history. Stalin starved out millions of Ukrainians. history.@@scottanderson3751
A.I. will be used to determine best market strategies for promoting either Ranch Flavored or Teriyaki flavored Soylent Green, with its proprietary special nutritional ingredient.
Anger: Back 7 or 6 decades ago we had the ability & means to address this frightening future. No thanks to the "Drill, Baby, Drill" people and their media enablers, this future is now baked in. I'm so angry !
@@mythicalnomadadventure969 Just be skeptical. Not to suggest consensus is science, it is NOT, but the IPCC exists on the assumption of anthropogenic climate change and they expect *no significant economic costs this century,* due to human activities effect on climate.
@@mythicalnomadadventure969 Can U help yourself? Be skeptical. IPCC predicts negligible global economic impact from anthropogenic climate effects *this century.*
You can literally see the warm water under the arctic sea ice if you take a look at the SSTA on earth null school. Looks bad, but Idk how it has been in the past.
Has anyone done serious recent research on what will happen when we lose the AMOC and the background global heating also continues? Loss is the AMOC won’t completely cancel out the heating effects. It will be sporadic and localised. Much of the planet will continue to warm even without AMOC.
Yes I think your referencing the natural spin of the earth will keep minimal flow always going but the actual AMOC that regulates temperature would slow to a point where heat regulation on the planet wouldn’t transfer as it does now. This would also cause additional sea level rise on the east coast USA as the current would no longer be pulling the water inward through the current.
They want to prevent warm tropical air from moving northward in an attempt to naturally cool the Earth. However, this approach carries significant risks that could endanger human lives in the process.
The amoc is so incredibly powerful but man cannot influence it. Carbon is what the Catholic church was to copernicus. Dont shoot me..just think about what I said
It might be worse. In recent ice ages, the northern hemisphere has experienced more ice ages than the southern hemisphere. This video very informative. THANKS
SO Paul has missed a huge potential impact coming from the reverse of the Beaufort Gyre. Just a month ago TheWoods Hole Oceanographic Institute stated this:Stabilization of the gyre could be a precursor of a huge freshwater release, which could have significant ramifications including impacting the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a key component of global climate. It is stabilizing and has a huge volume of fresh water that when reversed will be released into the AMOC.. this alone could shut it down given the other factors already at play.. GLTA but cold is a more likely future than heat for Europe and much of North America
Correct. -20 along the Norwegian coast. If that comes true, they'd be getting fresh land ice in the Scandinavian mountains, as it gets so cool, snow won't melt in summer.
@@EdwardM-t8p Both Ice- and Ireland today have avg summer temps of about 15C, so it would just depend how far temps would sink, post AMOC disintegration. Both have hills and mountains, but Iceland has m up to 2 km high,already has more glaciers than the rest of Europe together. So Iceland may count on being glaciated. Ireland and UK in being further South, likely not that bad, but still receive lots of precipitation - another important factor when forming ice sheets. Those numbers may change in cooler climate, but they're next to an ocean all the same. Just a wild guess - higher mountainous areas will develop permanent glaciation, lower you d get tundra and other subarctic ecosystems with summer temps slightly above freezing. Dunno however if Irish and Britons wish to stay there - today's winters aren't such they'd need to getting used to. Post AMOC disintegration, you need to be real hardy, Canadian fur trapper kinda folk. Iceland would become Inuit area. However, changes will not arrive overnight, total change not even within some decades after AMOC disruption. They'd have time to pack their bags - but where can you go, as the rest of earth proceeds further into overheating modus.
It's obvious earth struggling more between El nino to Nina. We now have a neutral year as Pacific is trying to cool down for nina😢. This backs up eventually affects amoc on Atlantic side.
If it was hemp, it would pretty much float and the weight factor would mostly be eliminated. Out of water, it would likely be unable to support it’s own weight when fully extended. Steel cables have to be very large to support their weight at that distance even when in water.
While Rahmstorf's concerns about a rapid AMOC shutdown are important, the scientific consensus suggests a wider range of possibilities, including gradual weakening, regional disruptions, or natural fluctuations. The exact timeline remains uncertain, highlighting the need for continued research and climate mitigation efforts.
I chat all about the AMOC = Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation system.
The primary reason the northern hemisphere average temperature is 1.4C warmer than the southern hemisphere is the AMOC.
The primary reason the “thermal equator” is at 10 N latitude and not at the geographic equator is the AMOC.
When the AMOC shuts down, everything changes. It becomes very difficult to grow food.
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@41:22 you completely glossed over the next sentence, "....medium confidence... the AMOC will not involve abrupt collapse before 2100, such a collapse might be triggered by an unexpected influx of meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet." I saw a sign where I live in rural Georgia that said something about 2030 Bible bullshit. They are probably right because the AMOC will shit down way before they say it "might" %chance bullshit. These people are snowflakes. It's the end of the world. Prepare yourself by just accepting it. Go for a walk. Enjoy the freakish weather. Adopt a dog or cat. Give a poor person a prized collector's piece of art. Tell your folks you love them and thanks for the ride. Then, sit back and watch it happen. No one is driving this boat.
thanks Paul. the Beaufort gyre play in at all?
How can someone go through all the trouble of studying climate change and all that entails, and completely ignore the biggest heater in the neighborhood? The cycles it goes through can last hundreds of years. There's direct evidence to this. Models are only as good as the information applied.
@@noneyabusiness88 There is direct evidence that the CO2 levels have doubled in 150 years, scientific KNOWLEDGE (like gas burn in car make go) that it is heating the atmosphere by trapping heat, and an understanding that people like you will perish like the rest of us, so I don't care.
I've never been told just how f&#%ed we are in a calmer tone.
We've been told for decades how F'ed we'd be long before now in hysterical fashion.
@@Mrbfgray it seems to me, vested interests have spent big money to convince the voters, climate change was a tax scam. They convinced enough people to block meaningful change.
enjoy the ride
At some point the weather stopped being a focus of small talk and became the #1 doomsday topic instead. He's just hanging on to that old small talk tone out of habit, I suppose, I tend to laugh to keep my emotions balanced towards positive when I talk about it myself because breaking down and crying over it doesn't make life feel fun. Small talk tones and humor in the midst of horror: things we need to survive emotionally right now.
@@Mrbfgray The rate at which the North Pole melts is worse than predicted, substantially worse.
EU has voted (Far)Right. It is getting *_colder & hotter_* at the same time - a human special feature.
We are proud to say - we need no AMOC for ruin - we can do it by ourselves.
@kti5682 "Going nuts" is simply another way to escape the (fear of) pain. We're close to tip...
Why talking about physics then? "To avoid (fear of) pain by rationalizing"
I was so happy to vote, finally people will obviously see the impact on our climate and start acting i said. How delusional
@@WaveOfDestiny Hug.
(Illusions hurt. We just don't feel that. So - You're more real & bright now :)
My shitty little town has voted 30% Extreme-Right.
You know - when I buy cigarettes and more than 3 ppl in the room - one is probably an as$hOl€
@@volkerengels5298
Nah, fear has nothing to do with it. At least, not of climate change. "They" just don't know nothing, haven't ever seen a *science* vid on global warming, just know the word from TV or from social media timelines, in which often it's said the whole climate thing doesn't exist or that reports are way overblown.
If they fear a thing, it's losing that relatively unworried life to all them newcomers, migrants, refugees, they don't care, they want less of'm around.
If they worry about climate change, it's about what it might cost them, that driving cars, holiday, house heating and eating meat might become even more expensive.
Ask around, in Wall Mart, the playground, wherever you meet folks outside the bubble. If any of m knows a thing about AMOC, or West Antarctica, and what might happen if things tip over.
Bet you'd find maybe one person who knows a thing or 2 about climate. But the current state of affairs, and the risk we and our "civilization" are running ? No One.
@@volkerengels529849% for the far-right wing in my village in Central Brittany! Hard to swallow.
Paul, here in the mountains of California, the more frequent and damaging fires have disrupted the insurance industry. Insurance premiums are up 5 to 10 fold. Electricity has doubled as well. Insurance prices are causing more homeowners to lose their homes than the actual fires! The resulting impacts to businesses, county tax revenues, etc. have been significant, all at only 1.5 degrees of warming. We are in for a bumpy ride!
Unfortunately most people only consider the first order impacts. Specifically they think 1.5° sounds pleasant because they enjoy hot weather. That's as far as most people think. It's embarrassingly shortsighted.
That is absolutely true!! I hear law makers from right of centre saying that we'll all still be ok at 3C. I don't think they're right. The insurance example is only one of many
No one shd be living there in the first place.
@@brawndo8726 any info you can share is welcome.
The increase in ins in Louisiana has been devastating many companies have pulled out. The ones left require an extremely high deductible on wind damage to roofs due to hurricanes and tornadoes. Even if your home is paid off, with insurance and property tax it’s like still having a monthly payment
There is none as blind as those who will not see.
At least you can spot them by their red MAGA hats in the US.
yea there are none so deaf as those that will not hear.
@@friedrichjunzt And you will be spotting a lot more of them, since Trump is leading in the polls ...people know what the truth is.
Correct me if im wrong, but were 'experts' not warning us 30 years ago that our cities would be flooded today?
@@friedrichjunzt Leftists are just as ignorant. You won't fix it with EVs, solar panels, windmills, and Marxism. Trump is interested in Molten Salt Reactors and Modular Reactors. This is the best way to be able to reduce carbon emissions and do carbon capture to any significant degree.
We are doomed. But at least we have Paul Beckwith to show us the way. As the French say: Bon courage!
🎉
They said that also when they tried to invade Moscow during Napoleons Eastern march-
Only the Amoc was running a bit cooler and the Russian winter was BRUTAL.
Hope they likes snowcones! Bonaparte Aptite!
More like ...Bon Voyage!
Is Paul the best we have? Why are alarmists always so damn DIM?
@@Mrbfgray why are you ragging on truth tellers?
The food growing issue is already here. I've been growing food in the Ozarks for several decades. In the last 10 years I've seen a profound decline in outdoor yields. The extreme heat prevents flowering and fruiting. The only reliable crops are those that do not require flowering and fruiting. Root vegetables, alliums, and greens. I grow tomatoes, squash, cucumbers, and zucchini in partially underground spaces to achieve cooler temperatures for flowering. And I've moved much of my growing indoors to get year-round broccoli, greens, herbs, alliums, tomatoes, celery, and many root vegetables. I suggest more folks start thinking seriously about managing some of their own food supply indoors. Grabbing your veggies from the garden room to supplement shelf-stable pantry items could make a huge difference in your quality of life one day soon.
Also promote farming changes in your area…. Conventional mono cropping is going to be shown to be incredibly unsustainable in the very near future
Already does in Canada. Food prices here are disgusting
@@KB-gt6uv That's also due to the general inflation in the U.S. that affects
Canada.
@@KB-gt6uv… what is truly disgusting are the attitudes of entitled humans and their behavior/attitudes
I agree. We are presently in a small drought in middle Alabama. We haven't had rain now for 53 days and they are predicting it to last into November.
People are sleepwalking. The world is changing rapidly and they're on Tik Tok, doing silly stuff. Most will be gobsmacked when it hits.
It hit multiple times over last few decades already.
We cant do anything so why not doing stupid things?
I feel for our children. We haven't given them the skills to navigate the worsening crisis
@@coralcomet They are woefully unprepared. We can talk and inform, but their reality revolves around technology. They are totally reliant on it. Another Carrington event and that all goes away. And they won't cope...😕
There is a movie called : Don’t look up. It says it all!
More people need to be discussing this topic….
It’s the silent elephant in the room that the public is oblivious to.
Stupid silent elephant. He should have warned us.
He secretly hates us.
They're the kind that go rogue.
Considering what we did here, there can be no place for us. Enduring sentience just wasn't our thing.
A comprehensive deep-time discoverable human testament would be a nice gesture, because symbiotic intelligence would be cool.
My greatest fear is how bad we might have taken for granted our planet being habitable. The more planets are discovered and explored? The more are suspected of having, at one point, been capable of supporting life... but no more. The hypothesis for what happened to these planets always start with some tipping point being crossed that causes major and increasing destabilization of the planetary systems, until they collapse entirely and the planet becomes a barren rock hostile to all life.
The earth will continue to remain habitable for the lucky few that can afford to live in the liveable areas for a lot longer than it will be for the affected populations who will see their lives get cut short pretty soon. Then there will be those who have truly prepared for this scenario, say people who are part of special projects within some militaries where they have built facilities that allow them to survive beneath the ground. The rest of humanity will wither…
@@dickschwanzstein1789 Once civilizations start to collapse? Those fancy bunkers won't save anyone for long. Despite existing as parasites, billionaires don't seem to understand how dependent they are on the societies they leech from.
@@dickschwanzstein1789nah bruh you fantasicing. Clearly Aliens been farming the whole universe and everything we work towards seems to make earth as uninhabitable as possible for as long as possible. Imean humans could also just be stupid as fk and do all that randomly, but aliens seem way more plausible to me and i'm an absolute expert if it is about aliens. But if you feel better coping about our future like that it is ok brother i didn't wanna make u depressed or anxious
The whole of the Earth will never be rendered inhabitable (obviously this depends on what you understand by that term!), nature and humans all along have a tremendous capability to adjust to changing conditions.
However it does mean that the Earth's capability for supporting the current massive human population will decrease a lot, and it will cause all kinds of havoc, including massive exodus from the worst hit regions, which will end up in wars over the remaining essential resources like water and farmland. Billions of people will die.
The problem isn't what the averages are. It's just the infrastructure isn't suitable to handle the short-term damage from stagnating weather systems. Heat domes, polar vortices, extreme rain/drought. Need more sponge cities that can trap rain water before it dumps into the ocean/seas. Need massive aqueducts to move water from areas with too much rain to those with droughts.
Need fewer humans and fewer breeders . Unpopular with capitalism that requires endless growth in customers, resources, productivity and profits. Money I’d GOD .
@@georgenelson8917Spoken like a true communist
Brainless, malthusian doom monger. Educate yourself, grow a spine or preferably remove yourself if you are so concerned. Pathetic weasle.
We could repurpose all the oil pipelines to move the water.
@@grumpy3543People who know nothing about Communism should study some history and quit repeating Capitalist propaganda.
I’m never sure why you hear some climate scientists saying the shut down won’t happen for 100 years, it stopped momentarily already. Thanks Paul, it’s gonna be an exciting future!
There is indeed a nature publication pointing to the risk of a shutdown occurring in this century with an estimate that it will most likely happen by mid century.
There’s a while cottage industry of so-called experts going on podcasts and selling books and feeling very good about themselves as they mix up cause and effect and say such things that the living standards have been going up and that they will continue to go up and that a bit of climate change isn’t gonna change that In the short term. Nobody really knows when the full impact of climate change will start to be felt, but to think today’s children won’t feel it is as the very least naive.
I will give the critics this: many billions of people on this planet are so poor that they will never give up anything to combat climate change. The only people who truly can make sacrifices are we in the west and we have even been quite unwilling to do that. I also think we have a number of options to kick the can down the road like geoengineering and we in the west can just ditch out cars and start using buses when oil gets really expensive and there’s plenty of coal we can still burn anyway…
It's already slowed down significantly just the past few years.
Just hoping things don't run AMOC.
Worst AND best Pun ever! 😂
Excellent! 👍
lol they definitely already have.
@@goodenough22
But gallows humor gets me through. 😂💚
@@juliebarks3195 same here. Miracles do happen also 🥰
We are on end reel. This movie is going to end and end quickly. No credits will be run cause those guys have run for cover. It won't be pretty. Do what you can for others be a friend to all, love yourself and your family. ❤
Thank you Paul, I can hear the sadness in your voice. Keep safe brother!! ❤
So the Holocene stability, the emergence of agriculture and modern civilization depended on the Northern heat transfer from the AMOC.
Gee, what could go wrong?
Well the Viking settelers on Greenland could have said a word or two on the matter.
Keep it up Paul. You’re doing good works. Love from London UK.
Love from Derby UK.
Hampshire 🇬🇧
And Dublin
Caerphilly County Borough ❤️ 🏴
@@beverleyhuish5871
💚☘
In Sweden, we voted for the Greens. The message about the AMOC made an impression in a country with a 3-month long summer, most of which is rained away. The right-wing extremists didn't stand a chance against the threat of an eternal winter.
The socalled greens are against nuclear power plants and for wars, ev and mass immigration.
in Sweden there are the blond girls in the city, you see them at cafes sipping wine yes?
@@rd264 And raped in the alleys by ....
@@rd264 No, everyone has converted to Islam, so wine is no longer available and women are wearing burkas.
No, I prefer facts to opinions.
At 22:00 is a map showing what initially happens to surface temperature if the AMOC shuts down.
Initially, the ITCZ will react by shifting southward. Agriculture will be disrupted in much of the world with any major shift of the ITCZ.
However, the warming of the Southern Hemisphere will eventually release a great amount of ice into the sea from Antarctica, enough to shift the ITCZ northward, with that shift assisting in causing a 2nd widespread agricultural disruption.
Short version: Melting of Arctic and Antarctic ice will cause climographs of many current agricultural regions to undergo substantial changes, making regional future crop yields much less reliable in future decades and future centuries.
I suspect there may be a plan for this. And it's dirty. Read the geopolitics.
@@earthman6700 some sort of lottery to safety, is what I'm guessing?
@@earthman6700
I agree that it seems a bit dirty, but stop and think about the long term effects. Billions of people live near the sea. When the water rises, those people will have no alternative but to move inland. I'm wondering where all these people are going to live. You can't grow your own food in a city very well and with 8 billion people on the planet, how are we going to feed them all?
@@jameslee-dp6cb I surmise, there are those that don't think we will. Hence efforts at conflicts and not peace. Thin us out. Just a thought. One of many.
I've been wondering if we could create under water habitats where people could live. Hurricanes are too violent to live on the surface for any length of time. But just a couple of meters below the waves, it doesn't get that bad. Could technology accomplish offshore housing that would be safe and sustainable? I'm also curious to know if we couldn't increase the salinity of the water by drilling into the gulf salt deposits located in the gulf of Mexico. Would an increase in salinity in the gulf stream counteract the fresh water incursion as the AMOC carries the warm waters northward? It's an interesting idea.
….and…can you imagine the overwhelming climate migration from Europe and North Africa when/if the AMOC collapses? It’d be such a crisis
If 'Crisis' means something like war and/or total collapse of civilization....
The world needs to "wake up" to the severe risks arising from the ongoing climate change. Perhaps northern Europe should begin making massive investment into Southern Africa so as to secure living space for the inevitable mass emigration from Europe to Southern Africa later this century!!
the irony when northern europeans are stopped at the border to africa will be something else
People have worthless debates about the kinds of refugee they face so far. All measures fail and the respective new home states crash hard when an entire people actually needs to move somewhere. Sadly the rights are too concerned with emotional politics to avoid the real threats. War and economy refugees are stress for the state, climate refugees break it.
@@roadraider6266 seems to me that there are no good answers. People whose families are in danger of starvation are just going to move somewhere where there’s a better chance at a future. No wall is going to stop the migration….in my opinion
Weather in Portugal changed completely in half a dozen years. One has to be completely disconnected from the world not to notice it. It was on a path to becoming hot and dry, then there was one weird year in which the air seemed mostly stale (the atmosphere seemed to have stop circulating for weeks and weeks, it almost felt like time itself had stopped, I can't explain, but more people felt the same) and then the weather changed again. Winters still continue to warm and became milder and dryer, with occasional extremely cold waves, but summers have been mostly rainy and cold with the exceptional heat waves here and there, in which we have increases of 15-20°C from one day to the other. We used to have very stable 4 seasons and we had proverbs describing each month's weather accurately. They no longer have any use.
yes i live in canada 35 yr and i dont remember the weather ever fluctuating as much as it has these last few years. it feels like a different planet from when i was a kid.
Same in Washington State USA.
@@jayperez3431… it is a different planet
Different parts of the globe are affected differently. In the south eastern part of the US, hurricanes have become stronger and tornadoes are experienced more often. As for temperatures, they remain about the same, but we have been experiencing more droughts in recent years.
You're brilliant. Really fun times ahead.
Just wanted to say, love the setup! I wanna have an office like that one day. Thanks for the work you're doing. I'm chemist myself, but haven't had the opportunity to dig into climate, oceanic, or atmospheric science much, and your vids have definitely helped me get an idea of how this all works.
“You can’t stop what’s coming. It ain’t waitin’ on you. That’s vanity.” No Country for Old Men.
65 years old on the southern coast of Oregon nice cool temps my electric bill last month was less than 3 dollars I ride public transit I hope AMOC does not shut down before I’m done with the planet. Public transit’s not that bad Mostly empty
Ps just watched my neighbor doing his daily drive to town in his gas hog f350 to get a cup of coffee around 25 miles or so
@@mrhappy4521 That is just crazy, man. I take public transit and I make my coffee at home. I'd still make it at home even if I was in that f350 guy's situation. Gas is expensive and so is coffee shop coffee especially Starbucks'.
my bike tires are low on air and thee is global alarming so Im trying to adapt by taking a bus but it has not been a good idea so far
@@mrhappy4521 Even worse than Al Gore's private jet.
Apparently the hot water also draws humidity and moisture out to sea. I live in North Florida although not on the coast, the gulf is not far. I noticed last year, and again this year the humidity seems off and our rainfall patterns are just wrong. We get deluges followed by long periods of low humidity and no moisture -- but with our sandy soils, low humidity means the soils are frustratingly dry.
I’m in Florida also and noticing our natural rain patterns have been changing also
I live in New Orleans and the humidity here is worse than ever! Midday it's as hot as the blazes and at sunrise and sunset it's like a "cool" steamroom.
@@EdwardM-t8p why live in such a climate?
I'm in Gainesville Florida. Chemtrails are being sprayed daily. Doesn't that have anything to do with the strange weather? I also heard of something called Nor Rad which is technology being used to manipulate the ionosphere. I think humans are causing these changes.
@@jahnavikeraval6839 mostly likely you are right.
This is the wettest, most miserable year In Britain that I can ever remember! Summer has started terribly. I wonder if this has anything to do with the AMOC?
I was Born 1960 UK, June can still be April like, sun worshipers and weather moaners should move else where if they do not like the UK climate😆
Gaz Yorkshire.
Same. Weather over Western Europe is fcrazy.
I then relaxed again and put the question on the pile: "Nobody knows"
It's the tory government. They probably gave the summer weather to the highest bidder...
I've recently watched Clarkson farm again. If 2019 was so brutal, what is going to happen when it gets worse?
Hottest April since records began?
Try putting the speed at 1.25x. Very helpful !
Hello.
I am Paul Beckwith.
CLASSIC!
He said the line!!!
It’s always good to know who you are!🤪
We are all Paul Beckwith on this blessed day
His name was Paul Beckwith
Some day, Paul's introduction might become for climate what it was, some ten years ago, for freedom of speech
_"Je suis Charlie"_
Great presentation but for pieces of this length please consider including Chapters so that we can better move between portions of the work.
He needs a helper. He is way deep in this and can't also make aesthetic refinements..
It's worse than I thought . thanks Paul.
It is good to see that you appear to have emerged somewhat at least from the depression that seemed to grip you a few years ago. I have too, after ten years of crushing depression. I am not sanguine about what is coming or how fast, I believe science is too conservative, the lack of methane data in any of the predictions for instance is a major concern. Things will happen faster than predicted, I think. Either way thanks for persisting and for providing good analysis. All the best.
If Japan could kill Godzilla then I’m sure they can solve this problem 😊👍🏼
Here in northern europe climate becomes more and more unstable, last year summer temps reached 30°, this year we had snow in may right after 25° heat the week before, the seasonal greenery covered in snow looked surreal
It's becoming an unstable system
no it didn't. You are fantasizing it.
You could never get most people prepping for such an event.
But...!
If you create a political unrest situation with dire potential for human on human confrontations that has people preparing for somethingextreme, they will be better prepared for surviving those confrontations if they can survive the climate and weather events to come.
No one actually wants a civil war, but prep like there will be one, and you won't be wrong.
3c below seasonal av in England, 4c below in Scotland currently. This is consistent with Gulf Stream Failure. But the N Atlantic is warming, so other things aren't equal?
Bullshit. It is just a function of the low jet stream, probably more related to La Nina than anything.
Excellent video as usual!!! Keep up the fantastic work!!! Really sobering information but thank you for sharing and explaining
It's going to continue to grow more dire because we're increasing our emmissions instead of at least stabilizing them.
Because of the long lived nature of CO2, stabilizing emissions still allows for heat energy to grow in the system. You have to reduce to zero for the system to stabilize, with time. (And if feedbacks aren't kicking in their own emissions by then, that is.) Granted, it will be a different climate state, but its better than the alternative of continued change.
By then?
The permafrost is defrosting fast now,lol ✌️
@@OldJackWolfpeople do not appreciate the significance of this. Once it becomes unbearable, they will call for change. And the. Everyone will say they did not realize there is a lag, and the effects are irreversible. It’s tragic
From my understanding, the effects of heating from emissions are delayed by 30-40 years, so even if emissions dropped to zero tomorrow, the planet would still continue to warm.
This is without positive feedback loops that would exacerbate the process.
@@Rnankn Billionaires buy bunkers - normal people buy comforting beliefs.
What else should they do to maintain their mental health?
Dark times ahead for humanity!
It's allright. Everything will be fine.
Just enjoy your life and don't worry about these things that you cannot influence.
I saw in a video with Rahmshof him saying that it would take a couple of decades to see the results of the collapse of the AMOC. Some models he showed that based on salinity the Amoc would stop around the year 2000. Maybe it is already a lot worse that we know. Weather in Western Europe is colder now, at least the impression. Definitely in northern Spain this year until now and last year. 2022 and before was very hot. This was for seen due to hot air going around the cold blob. When the cold zone grows bigger this stops happening. I think it is all upon us.
It is interesting how they discovered and then used the cold water from the depths to chill things.
I think they have lost touch...like watching children put out a fire
Whenever I am feeling optimistic, Paul's videos provide a handy antidote. With aggressive Russia in the east and regressive AMOC in the west we are starting to feel squeezed here in Finland.
Lol
russia is not militarily involved in 85% of countries outside of theirs, unlike somebody else we know
What about the aggressive Ukrainians in the south who backed by Uncle Sam rejected a peace deal in early 2022?
@@get__some “militarily involved” what a delicate euphemism. Not the same as brutal invasion, destruction of power plants, bombing residential areas, leveling cities, kidnapping children. Etc. 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
Russia isn't a threat to anyone unless someone coughcoughNATOcoughcough breaks their promises and surrounds their country over time, and heavily arms its largest former Soviet province (Ukraine). Don't buy the propaganda: the enemy is within NATO and WEF/UN.
Funny isn’t it. The Day After Tomorrow, just might have been a documentary?
It's still a caricature, but it intended to alert to a serious issue and people thought it was just a figment of someone's imagination
The movie was seriously sped up, you can only got so much into a small time frame. But it does touch on some things that could be devastating. It is a warning. Because a crash of ecological systems could have quickly felt effects.
It truly boggles my mind. Reading the UN statement on climate change and then thinking about things the entire planet could do if we truly were united. It's truly unfortunate and disheartening. This isn't something we can just buckle down and solve for generations to come either. Very overwhelming
From my understanding the weakening of the AMOC is mainly caused by freshwater inflow from the melting Greenland ice sheet.
But once the AMOC has collapsed the area around Greenland will be significantly cooled which will greatly reduce the melting of Greenland and hence the inflow of freshwater into the ocean.
I wonder if this cooling of Greenland would be enough to restart the AMOC after a few decades?
unfortunately it is likely that the AMOC would take 1000s of years at least to restart. There is a disconnect in the diagram shown by Paul. A "hysterisis" I can't spell this word though.
Amoc s slowdown and glacio isostatic rebound are two of the most scary things with climate change.
They both mean huge disruptions and catastrophic events. Yet people still seem to think that "it will just be slightly warmer"... 😢
Can you expand on your comment. How will this appear in 10 Years?
Might want to add starving to death to your list as weather patterns in agricultural regions become increasingly unpredictable and overall yields of staple grains decrease.
But what do I know.
@@maxsmith695 there is the ipcc report for that if you are genuinely interested.
The simplified version is understandable even without a scientific background.
@@kirkha100 that s what the amoc disruption means indeed.
Changing the rain patterns is what will affect agricultural cultures the most.
@@maxsmith695Not in 10 years, at least not likely, for AMOC breakdown. Isostatic effects will only happen after melting of enormous amounts of land ice. While that melting may well go to extremes this century, the bouncing back of earth mantel masses will take a bit longer.
Within ten years, worldwide food crisis following stagnation of weather patterns - mega droughts in one place, large scale flooding in others, is entirely possible. Jet stream is already weakening, and that trend increases the chances such stagnant weather patterns occurring over extended periods.
I just waiting for Paul to deliver the Paris Climate Eulogy once we're all over the AMOC tipping point.
I've noticed that too. No joke but New Jersey has become North Carolina. Water temperature is too warm and there's always lately a high pressure system that has been sending weather through a northeast corridor. The tropics seemed to have moved north a few degrees latitude.
Gotta believe that there’s a way to avoid destruction of our societies…as time goes on without an overall reduction in CO2 emissions though, our viable options are slipping away.
…but still believe we can’t just resign ourselves to some self-inflicted predestined crash
I agrree we cannot give up. But it is now more about trying to limit the consequences of the coming crash.
@@russmarkham2197 guess one philosophy to have is that any landing that humanity can walk away from is a good landing
@@BobHoward-g6t That's a great way to put it.
co2 is plant food. if it drops below 200ppm, we're done
"it could take a fecade or two"....funny how its always decades away....
It’s over with, greed, and comfort won. You couldn’t stop our overlords decades ago and you can’t stop them now 🎉
You are living comfortably in a heated house. You are part of the winning.
I love greed and comfort.
I love it better than bread lines in a socialist hell.
Someone didn’t notice the record use of donated food by the poor in recent years…. Or the US olympians using the free healthcare at the games way more than any other nation?
The climate has changed before and will continue to change. There is nothing any of us are going to do about it.
If electricity prices have doubled, you can blame your politicians not the climate. California is a drought prone ecosystem. If the number of houses built into a fire prone hillside quadruples then you’re going to have a lot more property damage.
Actually the politicians are only doing what their capitalists overlords demand. So, it’s greed, not politics.
I first heard about this in "after the warming" Decades later we are still headed in this direction 😢
The AMOC is already shutting down. Winters on Long Island, New York USA are 15 degrees warmer on average due to AMOC currents slowing down drastically 120 miles off the coast of Long Island on their way up to Iceland. Iceland waters are getting colder due to the Ocean water current heat being given off to Long Island and coastal North America.
More people need to talk about the dust from Saharan desert in this equation
What has the Sahara dust to do with this topic?
@@hg6996 Nothing i think. Saharan dust gets blown towards South America mostly.
Most of that ends up on my car for some reason. The UK.
@@juliebarks3195 That only happens very rarely. We get it in Holland once every couple of years or so. That dust is considered a nutrient source for the Amazon where it normally ends up.
It also falls into the ocean, where it leads to algae bloom, which can take out quite a mass of carbon out of the atmosphere. One of the not well known sinks, ocean algae can take up more carbon than all the worlds rainforests combined
So an AMOC collapse would really have very little impact on temperatures in NYC. You wouldn’t think that after watching “the day after tomorrow”
Definitely more film theatrics than science... aka "a movie". Pretty rare you get both.
On a spinning planet, “What goes around, comes around.”.
Might change the raining and hurricanes patterns though.
Temperature isn t everything, especially for agriculture.
City mife is probably the easiest thing to adapt.
Or read Art Bell and Whitley Strieber's _The Coming Global Superstorm_ on which the movie is based but takes liberties with - what takes 3 months in the book takes only 7 days in the movie. 📽️ 🍿
@@EdwardM-t8pa superstorm. Sounds right.
Hopefully the global south will treat the global north refugees with as much care and compassion as they have received :)
Karma works in mysterious ways
You mean give us free housing and feed us and give us jobs? No way in hell.... Have you even been to one of these countries, unless you got money you're on your own pal. Your comment is a joke and not rooted in reality whatsoever.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research is right next to Berlin and paid by German Green Party to produce such silly reports and put the world population under " German Angst " !! - Take it critical and don't just obey to results that might be taken on the base of manipulated figures!!!
@@Canadian_Eh_Ihe means, let us drown in the water, imprison us, force us to stay endless years on camps with no living conditions, most time sending us back to our point of origin and if by a very small chance they approve our refugee status (as established in international law), and maybe get the support we legally have the right to, then suffer a life of discrimination, exploitation and hate from people who never accept us as refugees who would rather be at home than have had to leave everything behind and see us as leeches, when 99% of wealth is hoarded by the elite and we contribute more to society than what we take, or whatever.
@@Canadian_Eh_ICanadian, hah.
i am doomed
Yes.
Yes.
You are certainly doomed.
Isn't that special?
Join the club. I have had apocalyptic dreams for years, but they were just dreams, until now.🌎☠👽
I think you'll find, WE all are.
Probably, but while you're still breathing, you still have hope. The real question is: what is there that you can do to improve your chances of survival?
There are multiple climate models predicting significant changes in monsoons throughout the world when AMOC collapses. Perhaps there's something wrong with me, but imo it's way more important than UK getting even colder weather or Arctic runaway warming getting partially offset.
Europe would have deep freeze winters.
Always informative. Thank you Paul.
Judging by the various maps either we will have a little ice age in the northern hemisphere with Ireland, the UK, and Scandinavia glaciating thus causing an even more rapid burning of fossil fuels, or everywhere except the North Alantic, Greenland, and the Northwest European Atlantic Coast will get hotter, or Mother Nature has other tricks up her sleeve. Personally I expect the first scenario which is a "mild" and nowhere as fast version of _The Day After Tomorrow._
Oh no ....not another "tipping point"
...and yet the state is building new houses like crazy...
Thx Paul....really informative. I suspect we might be done for by other factors before AMOC trouble deals the final blow.
Surreal juxtaposition between relativity imminent climate induced civilisation collapse and the current 'life is normal' political pre election bickering here in the UK. We collectively still or just don't get it.
Having followed this since the early 2000s, I can say that I'm not glad to see it's finally beginning to happen, though it does seem like it was inevitable given several trends continuing (namely, the ongoing production of greenhouse gases, climate change and sea ice melting leading to the freshening of the water around the sea ice, preventing the brine from sinking as quickly, yada yada)..
Anyway, thanks for making this video. It's important for the world to wake up to the implications of this for the East coast of US/CAnada, Europe and the whole Northern hemisphere...
What I would love to know is if the time frame would occur at a much faster rate given the other tipping points becoming closer and ? some all ready crossed.
Great question. Is it possible to know this?
Live and learn.
Based on how we are exceeding all previous models in terms of climate change and ice melting I feel we could reasonably infer that yes it’s likely this may occur sooner as the planetary natural climate cycle is all interconnected.
Very mild and wet summer here in Britain while the south of Europe slowly cooks.
Thanks, Paul.
Coldest and wettest British "Summer" I've ever witnessed Paul 😂
Seems to be shaping-up quite similar to last year. Another write-off.
thats is the blob attacking the British
Well that sucks.
Well at least I'm not choking on forest fire smoke yet. I got that going for me, I guess? This going to be another world record breaking hot year for planet.
My son will be doing his part as the youngest FBAN in the nation and holder of the prestigious 590 cert. Advanced Fire Behavior Analyst and a Captain in that world of mostly Deputy and Assistant Chiefs. He will make a big difference!
@maxsmith695 congrats on your son!
@@Corrie-fd9ww Thank you. His resume in 9 short years lists over 70 classes and in excess of 50 strike team deployments. He is of the opinion there is a right way to battle the campaign fires ( those over 10,000 acres) and a wrong way, or many wrong ways. The FBAN is the expert who is in the base camp in a trailer with a Ph.D level meteorologist and some assistants directing the Incident Commander where to place assets which tankers to divert to which branch of the fire and when to evacuate towns. He is one of 142 in the nation and the youngest at 32.
Thank you for your teaching and reading. It is very cold right now in France , probably due to the jet stream curve.
A weakening magnetic field makes the Jet stream unstable.
I think the AMOC may be slowing down because ice from Greenland is melting and mixing with the warm Gulfstream.
However, after the ice melts the Gulfstream will go back to normal. It would probably go further north to the North Pole. Allowing Europe and Alaska to be warmer during the winter.
But melting the whole Greenland will take many centuries.
could the sheer amount of GHG emissions cause the prediction of the northern hemisphere turning cold to be incorrect, instead making everything become hotter eventually once all the ice has melted? I could imagine after all the ice has melted, the cooling effect will diminish.
The upside of all this mayhem is affordable housing. They might be almost uninhabitable, but beggars can't be choosers!
Take a look at the current SST anomalies. There are a lot of extremely high anomalies (+10°C) in costal regions around the arctic coastlines. What are the chances that those are due to methane release?
When the collapse happens, I'll be able to go skiing down Glastonbury Tor as winters will be much colder than they are now.
At what point on the curve do the consequences of slowing look catastrophic? If it'll take say 40 years to fully stop, what would the pattern of disruption look like along the way?
Only if the weather follows the trends in the graphs. However, we're still adding gigatons of carbon to the already doubled amount in the atmosphere. Things may go over a tipping point, after which it could get out of hand pretty quick. Think ~20 years is quite possible
thank you Paul. ass you may recall, i've been following you for about 20 years, pretty cool that we are out of denial phases lol,
If synthetic farming isn't taken seriously, we're looking at starvation if the heat doesn’t get us first.
You’re soon going to be living through the period in time know as “the great famine” and it’s not know as “great” because it brings you loads of sweets and honey-good luck with that ✌️
Gov are also creating a starvation to control the people and have them begging for gov.'Help" Communist dictatorships used starvation to over take counties through out history. Stalin starved out millions of Ukrainians. history.@@scottanderson3751
A.I. will be used to determine best market strategies for promoting either Ranch Flavored or Teriyaki flavored Soylent Green, with its proprietary special nutritional ingredient.
Americans are preparing for the great famine by becoming super obese and storing up huge quantities of fat.
@@PaulHBeckwith 🙃
Isn’t this the premise of the movie “day after tomorrow”? So we could see an instant freeze? That massive “cold hurricane” in the movie🤯
Anger: Back 7 or 6 decades ago we had the ability & means to address this frightening future. No thanks to the "Drill, Baby, Drill" people and their media enablers, this future is now baked in.
I'm so angry !
You should be angry at those who've duped us over and over w this same sort of doomsday predictions decades overdue.
@@Mrbfgray sorry, can't help you.
@@mythicalnomadadventure969 Just be skeptical. Not to suggest consensus is science, it is NOT, but the IPCC exists on the assumption of anthropogenic climate change and they expect *no significant economic costs this century,* due to human activities effect on climate.
@@mythicalnomadadventure969 Can U help yourself? Be skeptical. IPCC predicts negligible global economic impact from anthropogenic climate effects *this century.*
@@Mrbfgray this isn't about money. It's about living it's self.
Would someone please enlighten Sabine Hossenfelder, who seems to think the Coriolis effect is the only game in town!
You can literally see the warm water under the arctic sea ice if you take a look at the SSTA on earth null school. Looks bad, but Idk how it has been in the past.
Has anyone done serious recent research on what will happen when we lose the AMOC and the background global heating also continues? Loss is the AMOC won’t completely cancel out the heating effects. It will be sporadic and localised. Much of the planet will continue to warm even without AMOC.
AMOC will shrink, but will not shut down. To shut down - earth must stop.
Yes I think your referencing the natural spin of the earth will keep minimal flow always going but the actual AMOC that regulates temperature would slow to a point where heat regulation on the planet wouldn’t transfer as it does now. This would also cause additional sea level rise on the east coast USA as the current would no longer be pulling the water inward through the current.
It's the gulf stream that is driven by the Earth's rotation. The AMOC is driven by temperature and salinity gradients.
nope
I keep thinking of the words of the Bob Dylan song, "We're on the eve of destruction".
Not Dylan - Barry McGuire. Had to give him credit since it is such a great song.
we are in trouble........fact
They want to prevent warm tropical air from moving northward in an attempt to naturally cool the Earth. However, this approach carries significant risks that could endanger human lives in the process.
The amoc is so incredibly powerful but man cannot influence it.
Carbon is what the Catholic church was to copernicus.
Dont shoot me..just think about what I said
It might be worse. In recent ice ages, the northern hemisphere has experienced more ice ages than the southern hemisphere. This video very informative. THANKS
SO Paul has missed a huge potential impact coming from the reverse of the Beaufort Gyre. Just a month ago TheWoods Hole Oceanographic Institute stated this:Stabilization of the gyre could be a precursor of a huge freshwater release, which could have significant ramifications including impacting the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a key component of global climate. It is stabilizing and has a huge volume of fresh water that when reversed will be released into the AMOC.. this alone could shut it down given the other factors already at play.. GLTA but cold is a more likely future than heat for Europe and much of North America
👍
Thank you, Paul. ♥️
Shutdown temperature anomalies of up to 20C 😳
Correct.
-20 along the Norwegian coast. If that comes true, they'd be getting fresh land ice in the Scandinavian mountains, as it gets so cool, snow won't melt in summer.
@@reuireuiop0 But the UK and Ireland also get -20 C temperature drops as well as Iceland. What happens to those countries? 😳
@@EdwardM-t8p Both Ice- and Ireland today have avg summer temps of about 15C, so it would just depend how far temps would sink, post AMOC disintegration. Both have hills and mountains, but Iceland has m up to 2 km high,already has more glaciers than the rest of Europe together. So Iceland may count on being glaciated.
Ireland and UK in being further South, likely not that bad, but still receive lots of precipitation - another important factor when forming ice sheets. Those numbers may change in cooler climate, but they're next to an ocean all the same.
Just a wild guess - higher mountainous areas will develop permanent glaciation, lower you d get tundra and other subarctic ecosystems with summer temps slightly above freezing.
Dunno however if Irish and Britons wish to stay there - today's winters aren't such they'd need to getting used to. Post AMOC disintegration, you need to be real hardy, Canadian fur trapper kinda folk. Iceland would become Inuit area.
However, changes will not arrive overnight, total change not even within some decades after AMOC disruption. They'd have time to pack their bags - but where can you go, as the rest of earth proceeds further into overheating modus.
It's obvious earth struggling more between El nino to Nina. We now have a neutral year as Pacific is trying to cool down for nina😢. This backs up eventually affects amoc on Atlantic side.
how much does 5346 feet of rope weigh
If it was hemp, it would pretty much float and the weight factor would mostly be eliminated. Out of water, it would likely be unable to support it’s own weight when fully extended. Steel cables have to be very large to support their weight at that distance even when in water.
Can you provide the link to the report in the description here? Many of us left the bird site and avoid all links to it.
NOOOAAAHH! WHAT?!?
Drill baby drill. We're here for a good time, not a long time.
While Rahmstorf's concerns about a rapid AMOC shutdown are important, the scientific consensus suggests a wider range of possibilities, including gradual weakening, regional disruptions, or natural fluctuations. The exact timeline remains uncertain, highlighting the need for continued research and climate mitigation efforts.