An excellent article came out recently, explaining 10 reasons why our civilization will soon collapse; here is the link: www.okdoomer.io/10-reasons-our-civilization-will-soon-collapse/ Since this article is so well written, well referenced, and hard hitting I felt that it was very important to do a detailed video on it. Given the total destruction of a hospital in the Gaza Strip today with the loss of over 500 human lives, almost certainly by a U.S. built JDAM 1000 pound bomb dropped intentionally from an Israeli warplane, I have added an additional reason to the ten in the article. Given the events of the day, we appear to be marching closer to global catastrophe and civilization collapse, and it is hard to argue that we don’t deserve it. Please donate to paulbeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I connect the dots on abrupt climate system change caused mayhem.
'.. deserve it" - > This is a religious view based on 'guilt' I don't think you really share that. Gurdjieff* has written about the Greeks and Romans as the basis of Western culture. These are interesting insights into how brutal and violent 'we' (as a culture) are. *"Beelzebub's Tales for his Grandson" Part 2
*Oglala* is a Lakota word meaning "to scatter one's own." The Oglala Lakota Nation is one of the seven bands of the Titowan (Lakota) division of the Great Sioux.... Loved that 'Ogaglalalala' :)
There is a very good book , immoderate greatness, why civilizations fail. By William Ophuls. Quote: that being said, psychological vested interests are by far the greatest barriers to adaptation. “ en general we find” said William playfair, “ that all nations are inclined to push to the extreme those means by which they have attained wealth and power; [in consequence] their ruin is there by brought on with greater rapidity. Bluntly put, human societies are addicted to the ruling ideas and their received way of life, And they are fanatically in their defense. Hence, they are extraordinarily reluctant to the reform. To admit error and cut losses, said Tuchman, is rare among individuals, unknown among states. Instead of changing their minds, leaders redouble their efforts to do what no longer works, wooden -headedly persisting in error until the bitter end.
Wow, thanks for discussing my article! That's actually the first article I ever wrote about collapse. I tried to be thorough because I wrote it in order to convince my family, but glad to see so many others find it interesting.
Yeah, you nailed it. Fantastic job. I've published over 700 videos on my channel just trying to get across some of the points you made in this well written article.
So you don't think a mix of scarcity and policy can make us change our diet to feed ourselves with less land and less fertilizers? You don't think we can improve our water management or our governance? You don't think any SDGs are attainable? You don't think any of the adaptations being implemeted around the world can make any difference? We will collapse no matter what?
'Collapse' means somewhat different things to different people. For some it invokes a sudden and rapid socio-economic meltdown that results in a MadMax type of society. For others, it suggests a much slower, multi-decadal disintegration of the economic system, punctuated by periods of escalating social unrest, leading to widespread poverty and cycles of reducing living standards for the majority of the population. In either case, civilization becomes considerably less complex, the global population contracts or crashes and the process of globalization goes in to reverse as citizens are forced to construct alternative local economies using far fewer high energy dependent systems. Nobody can yet predict with any confidence which of these scenarios 'collapse' will more likely resemble. However, it can confidently be predicted that a collapse of some kind will inevitably occur before the end of this century.
40 years ago my biology teacher told the class all about overshoot. She had studied fruit fly population for her masters and showed us all the graphs and told us this was happening to us as a species
The overshoot example of the reindeer on the island is the most haunting. Not only did the reindeer overshoot their food source, but rather than simply dying off enough to be in balance, they died off to the extent that they were not able to breed any more; they went extinct on that island.
back in the days there was a video on youtube called: the most important video you will ever see. It was a guy teaching a class about exponential growth in real life and its consequences. sums it up quit good.
It's really tough going to work every day and working on some pointless bullshit in order to pay the bills while constantly in the back of my mind there's this thought that all this might come crumbling down far before i ever reach retirement age, pay off my debts or afford homeownership. On top of all that im watching my country drift further and further toward fascism which somehow noone seems to notice or care about.
There's more of us than you think that do care about what goes on around us. We will all find each other if the events ever unfold and do whatever needs to be done to survive and thrive.
Great overview of the progression of societal collapse. All of what you stated is true involving peak oil, minerals constraints, climate change, oceans in decline and how it all ties into the destruction of our ecosystem/life supporting biosphere. If anything was left out, it would be the fallacy of a future in space exploration. This most likely will never happen given the enormous problems that confront us here ahead.
I was a bookworm in high school and I knew that this was coming back then. I predicted all this would happen in my lifetime and I was labeled an ‘environMENTAList’. I am now 74 and there is a reason why we have no children!
I figured this out in early 1970's. I also had the sense to not have any children and am glad I stood by that decision even though I experienced the proverbial "biological clock" syndrome in my early 40's. I'm certainly glad I don't have any progeny that will suffer through this particular future. Mass starvation, political upset and unrest, desertification, global warming etc etc etc
McPherson was wrong to put out dates, and he now knows that, but he's not wrong on the outcome. I think most climate scientists can not bring themselves to look into the Abyss that the future has for us.
His analysis was on the basis of a prediction made by a well respected scientific body that Arctic ice would be gone 2019 by 2019 +/- 3 years. We have been blessed by an unprecedented 3 years of La Nina in a row. The El Nino unfolding now will bring the warming 'up to date' and then we will all see the truth. I could see many years ago what was inevitable as the cryosphere decline continued. Amongst these discussions reference is rarely made to the collapse of the biosphere which is measurable and definite. Clearly the larger mammals cannot survive the enormous reduction in the insect and plankton populations which is 90% for the former and approaching that in many areas of the ocean for the latter. This is easily confirmed if you wish to. @@Patrick_Ross
@@Patrick_Ross what's more ridiculous is he claims that he does not make predictions, forecasts or projections... dude gives every indication of being a gaslighting narcissist, so he can suck it as far as im concerned
A couple of hundred years ago, each human community was more or less self-sufficient, but now we are all interdependent. Our industrial society relies on relatively small numbers of engineers, scientists, and technicians, and if a significant percentage of them were killed in 'natural disasters', society could collapse long before we reach any other limits.
I am the opposite of hopeful. In late 60s and still working part time. My county in Florida is over run with large pickup trucks. more homes being built and the remaining wild land is being bulldozed. An acquaintance of mine is remodeling his house to nearly 4000 square feet. Just him and his wife. None of the people I know, liberal or conservative, have let up on air travel. Globally, I see no let up on consumption combined with an ever growing upper and middle class. Minor changes around the edges, like heat pumps EVs, will do nothing if we can't reverse habits especially among the top 10%.
Yep, that top 10% encourages everybody else to pursue and consume more that's how it's advertised. Pursuing more wealth for personally excessive ambitious achievement.
Paul, you've needed to put this video out for a hell of a long time. It's a goddamned doozy, and it's exactly what the whole world needs shouted at them.
100% true, but the resultant destabilization that would occur is something that the global power structure denies, avoids, obfuscates and ignores. Sadly, ignorance IS bliss, if only in the short-term.
An observation: Even when serious people discuss climate change, the conversation revolves around transitioning away from fossil fuels to more sustainable green energy. It's always a discussion about how to maintain our status quo by some other means. How do we make cars and airplanes more efficient? How do we reduce the cost of heating our homes? etc. Nobody it seems is willing to even consider the possibility of just using less. And herein lies the real problem. We are not willing to do what is necessary, because we are not willing to make any fundamental changes to our lifestyles. This is why we're all doomed.
I think you're missing the mark. I think people are genuinely utterly afraid of the entire economy collapsing if they don't keep on consuming, so they do what they have always done and shop till they drop. It's the idea that if you don't buy stuff, your neighbor will die. The truth is that nothing will change, not really because people don't want things to change, but that we have built an economy that runs on its own logic. At the end of the day, bills are bills, whether you think that money is even real or not. But mortgages still get paid in dollars, and that's a FACT.
@@amrenmiller6053 Of course you make a good point. I don't think that I'm missing the mark, I'm just looking at things from a different angle. For example, people don't 'want' to give up driving cars or flying airplanes, because they have come to depend on them for work and their way of life. They really don't have a viable alternative in our unsustainable consumption driven World. But here's the thing: I'm old, so I recall a World where there were 1/3 the number of humans. There were a LOT fewer cars, and flying airplanes was possible but much more expensive. When things broke, we fixed them, or more likely took them to the repair shop, rather than simply buying a new one. And yet, the economy did just fine. We could go further back in history to a time when cars and airplanes didn't exist at all, but again people survived quite nicely. So, it is possible to live with less ... since clearly it has already been done. Personally, I think our civilization is WAY beyond saving. Still, if there is any hope at all, it WILL involve a 'significant' change, back to simpler times where there are fewer people, who travel less, buy fewer things which are built to last longer, and generally recognize that we live in a World of finite resources. The alternative is that we continue to ignore the problems ... in which case Nature will simply do all this for us.
What's wrong with wanting a decent living standard? We can live very efficiently and have comfortable lives, performance fermentation, solar + sodium batteries, mass transit / EVs. This can be very positive. This can bring us under the overshoot issue
Thank you for this video and thanks to people sharing in the comments. So many of us are completely alone in collapse awareness. Of course I don't and cant talk with my elderly parents about this, but I can't even have a conversation with my husband of almost 30 years. He has (after several years now) accepted my efforts toward increased preparedness and self-sufficiency, but he is not participating and we can't talk about the likely possibility of collapse without arguing. It is just such a dark topic, filled with so many uncertaintaies. Many people just cannot engage in this conversation... maybe never. To anyone else who is feeling completely alone in this, I guess we are united in our isolation. Please share any tips for dealing with all this completely alone... Thank you
Do you have a dog? If not, please go to the local shelter and rescue another lonely abandoned soul pleading for help. The loving companionship you receive from your best friend is like a miracle. This friend will make you laugh all day, take you for long walks in the outdoors, and give you kisses when others turn away, or criticize you for being a caring person.
My wife gets it, but she still can't talk about it. The best I can do is discuss it with a male friend a couple of thousand miles away, by phone. I don't even care anymore. I just live with it.
There’s only one question that needs to be answer if (when) we experience a “breakdown of governments and economies” (really there’s only one economy now, it’s global and it can’t stand if it loses any significant part of it). Who is going to keep all of the nuclear facilities out there from failing in some form or other and poisoning the world? Do we seriously believe that the parts and supply chains that they require will continue to be available. Will the maintenance technicians and operation staff of every reactor world wide continue to turn up to work every day when they are no longer being paid - or have food? This isn’t a hypothetical question. If we are seriously expecting economic and government collapse, then this is the end game.
My son is concerned about nuclear reactors. It takes *years* to properly shut them down. Yet now nuclear is starting to be talked about more as a savior from carbon...but decades too late.
@@Mike80528 you son is right to be concerned. I'm not really worried about new nuclear projects. Few will get off the ground (because they don't make financial sense and insurance is really hard). And there are already far more than enough nuclear facilities out there to thoroughly contaminate the planet. We can only go extinct once right?
Yes! Nuclear Power stations melting down is thee existential mega crisis we need to face. I bring this up every time people say to me....the Earth has had extinction events and life comes back, oh well. While I cannot relate to the nonchalant attitude, I get upset because it simply isn't true if we destroy our atmosphere. We have the ability to turn the Earth into a Mars-like planet or worse. When I say this people look at me and say they didn't think of that. I hate to say it, but clearly it needs to be discussed. Our world is being run in part by sociopaths. We need new leadership with a focus on planetary survival! The hard push to the far right is fear based and suicidal. If AI can be pointed at the nuclear meltdown situation maybe we can find a solution faster. A hail Mary feels necessary at this point. 🙏
@@lissyflur1907let's not say these things with such certainty... Could it happen, yes. If words have power, let's be careful or at least work in a peaceful possibility. 🙏
@williamhanlon8159 it's not hyperbole. Many people out here have been so crippled by the capitalist dystopian nightmare that societal collapse is better than another 80 years in this horrificly abusive system. If you had 6 figures of debt between your education, housing and health care with no way out because despite working 60+ hour weeks you struggle just to make rent and can't afford insurance - you wouldn't be a fan of civilization either.
Also the topsoil is completely removed whenever a building is built. Meaning that the farmland we lose to development will not be able to be easily redeveloped into farmland.
Guy was the pioneer and had the COURAGE to speak! And people bash him for that? How disgusting! I'm sorry but he has EVERY right to be hurt and angry.... ALL that he has done in service to humanity and you insult him for that because "he got the date wrong"? Why was he even "asked" for a f&cking "date" like that's so important - the date, Give me a break!
@@cfitzstrum I don't take any advise from the cheap seats so you can sit the fuck down. "What is the quote about cheap seats? There are a million cheap seats in the world today filled with people who will never be brave with their own lives, but will spend every ounce of energy they have hurling advice and judgement at those of us trying to dare greatly."
I came to the realization about 2 years ago that we. as a species, were done. We've missed every opportunity to save our world. Instead, we're careening off the cliff, opting to do essentially, nothing. I now live off grid, I'm vegetarian and try to be mindful of my environmental impact, knowing full well that my personal actions wouldn't stop the inevitable. Why do I live this way? I decided that I can't look my maker in the eye and admit that "I understood the problem fully and I decided to take no action, even knowing that taking no action leads to our civilizations extinction." How could I justify that? To me, it is indefensible. I now just live as stress free as I can, enjoying what time is left. Paul is right. Civilization will soon collapse. My bet it will be a large failure in the agricultural production realm that sets off the powder keg. Hungry people do drastic things. It will likely be before 2030 based on what I'm seeing reported around the world in agriculture already. Blunt and to the point! I love your approach Paul!
Land and food are plenty...people do not know to grow food anymore and do not own enough land to feed themselves. We have been tricked into giving up our land , survival knowledge for a job in the city that will be replaced by an ai soon or not required. We have to go back to the land ( with more efficient tools ) and care
Mr. Beckwith, I have watched you for over 7 years and you have always been very upbeat even though things looked bad. Are you finally realizing what is happening? It is bad, and has been bad which is why I moved from the U.S. 2017. Prepare yourself. It is getting rough and people are beginning to wake up. Your Canada is a very crazy place! There was a time a very long time ago that I thought of moving there. McPherson had the guts to warn people. Well, here we are. I wish you well, prepare!
I remember watching Beckwith and McPherson debate probably about 10 years ago now, and Beckwith was simply not agreeing with Mcpherson on anything and had a lot of positive comebacks and counterpoints. Since then over the years Beckwith has been sounding more and more like Pherson as time has gone on. He's slowly coming to some important conclusions about where all of this finally leads to. While I do agree with Beckwith that McPherson's time lines and exact dates are just ridiculous and one should never give a date you can't possibly know lest you discredit yourself. I do agree with McPherson's outcome of human extinction. For me it seems deadly simple with one single fact: Atmospheric CO2 remains active in the atmosphere for around 1200 YEARS once emitted before finding a carbon sink to drop into. Just let that one thing sink in a little. That means ALL of human industrial emissions are STILL THERE TODAY in the atmosphere and will remain so for another 1000 years. So, tell me, what is the POINT of net zero? From my point of view we have already killed ourselves. We are dead men walking and just don't understand that yet. The emissions to date are already enough to continue heating the planet for another 1000+ years to come... How on earth can we possibly reel that back in?
@@terencefield3204 It's ok to be afraid Terence. You should be. From now on every year will be worse than the one before... "Faster Than Expected." And just think... you can take pride that your right-wing denialism helped to bring this doom down upon us all. Nice!
@@nsbd90now But each year is not worse than the previous, in fact quite the reverse. Mankind is quite unique in our adaptability, we have frameworks to measure, monitor, review, adapt that has got us this far, our success is incredible. There are resources that are finite such as Fossil fuels, they should be viewed as a stepping stone that will carry us to energy sources that are less resource hungry, but in the near term to medium FF energy is not an issue, right now large numbers of people are working on the energy solution. Before you start jumping up and down claiming use of FF will result in global temperatures rising and extreme weather events, if you look you will find there are many who for scientific reasons question the current narrative. These of course could be considered delusional, but to make that claim it is necessary to hear and understand the arguments being put forward , and those without that are the delusional ones. I will ignore the ridiculous political rant to spare your blushes. you
The evil in the world is our unwillingness to compromise, not the consequences from our refusal. It happens because the people who refuse to compromise aren’t the people who have to suffer the consequences of their refusal.
Out of all the comments for this video, even the article and the video itself, yours is the only that comes straight to the heart of the matter of all of this. It's our own inability to see that we are all human, no matter who we are, and that our unwillingness to unite as one to face the present and coming dangers is what's going to, and probably will lead to our downfall and collapse. The human mind has to change if we will ever have a chance to see a brighter future... I fear that will never happen.
The root of the problem is that we demand to live in "civilisation", with all its purported comforts and conveniences (ignore the negatives like pollution, alienation, wage enslavement, diseases of abundance, meaninglessness, mass extinction, anomie, etc). And for awhile there were enough ready "resources" handy to make that possible, at least for many. Now that ship has sailed, and no matter how much you love your civilised comforts and conveniences, they are going away, certainly for the vast majority of people. So we are all faced with two options: 1) Die. 2) Learn to live without civilisation, as humans did for hundreds of thousands of years before we went off on this bizarre, destructive, and short-lived tangent. It was a purple patch, a blowout, a bender, and now we've woken up on the cracked pavement of a barren parking lot with a massive hangover and all our possessions gone. We made a Faustian bargain, and the time to pay the devil has arrived.
I don't know what the civilizations that follow us will look like but I am certain they will depend on agriculture. You can't put that genie back in the bottle.
There is one huge difference since the last time we faced extinction. Today no one has ever tried to survive without civilization. Furthermore the last time it was ”only” a super volcano and many locations on Earth was rather pristine. This is not the case today. Extinction is everywhere with ecosystems breaking down. This is not a survivable habitat - especially not the organisms at the top of the food chain - such has well - humans.
Nobody in modern civilization has the skills to survive a collapse. Perhaps old school natives, Amish, that know the old ways of doing things. However, even they have come to rely on modern conveniences.
"the problems world leaders have let spiral" No. President Jimmy Carter brought this to our attention, and we summarily fired him. It's not the leaders...that's STILL MORE denial of responsibility! 🤣
@@marcv2648 thats such a BS argument, its always made by people who pretend global over population and global warming is a 3rd world problem and and its being addressed by the West birth rate. The West created this world wide mess and you are trying shift it to the poor nations.
I fell down the peak oil rabbit hole in 2011. I had my first child three years later. Theres a lot more going on in intimate relationships than "wont have kids bc times will be trying." Reality is, their mother is chicana and their cultural memory is one of struggle. Reproduction is natural and desirable for most people. I didnt want kids, but my desire to be childless was not as important as my desire to be a partner to my wife.
You realize that Western populations are dropping fast. Same with East Asia. We will not have a large enough generation of competent people to maintain what we already have. Most population growth is in India and Africa.
Iceland, Greece and Easter Island-all collapsed due to overshoot. Iceland probably cattle and sheep, Greece was goats, and Easter Island was all resources at once.
Paul lists 11 factors, any one of which by itself could bring about massive societal disruption, if not civilizational collapse. But we are facing all these looming issues and choke points - and many more besides - concurrently. Given this reality, it is inconceivable that at least some form of civiizational collapse can be avoided. I've spent much of the past 4 years reading about and listening to everything I could find which relates to these issues. And though I have 3 beloved 20-something aged step-children, I am no less sure that our societies will begin to experience severe social and economic disruptions long before they reach their 50s.
When the humans depart, the surviving animals on land, sea and air will shake their feathers in joy and inspiration. The trees, the meadows, the rivers will welcome the sun, the moon and the stars transforming the atmosphere as heaven on Earth. The Earth will smile, there will be a profusion of life on Earth, thank God no humans with guns to tread and kill in the jungle.
I grew up in NYC. When i was a kid, we had fireflies in my backyard. Since then, I've lived in Pennsylvania. There are less fireflies in Pennsylvania now than there were in NYC in the 90s.
Paul, firstly thank you for your efforts and secondly humanity is not up to the tasks required they including ourselves would want our many consumer goods and in a crisis history demonstrates that an authoritarian leader and fascist ideology offers the worst of all hopes. So, saying again a warm thank you over the years for your explanations. Ian
Growing food at scale was always tricky enough in the most ideal climate. In the US Midwest, I suspect the increased CO2 and warmer climate of roughly 1990-2010 was as ideal as it gets. Problem is climate change is exponential and we’re leaving the Goldilocks zone. Also, after a certain point crop production declines exponentially. It is not a linear decline with each 1C of warming. Net result will be a crop production cliff. I can’t say what year that will be but it could be real close.
@@alanj9978 Bad things have happened in the Midwest when summers have reached 2.0C. 2012 was not a good year, the dustbowl of ‘36 was not fun, 2022 in western Kansa did not go well. None of these years were anywhere near +4.0C
@@alanj9978 The Midwest only grows 1/3 of the world’s grain. Things are going much better down in Brazil where it’s currently 105F. Spain’s olive crop has been excellent in the recent 115F heat. The only reason it’s so cool in India and the Midwest is we’re burning megatons of coal and those sulfates do block the sun. Why do you think 8 of Madrid’s 10 hottest days have been since 2017? No sulfates. Why has Pittsburgh had ZERO record highs the last 10 summers while Phoenix had 12 just in July 2023?
the types of crops we grow should also be considered. around 2% of the farnland used in the u.s. for growing crops its actually used for growing stuff we eat. a vast majority goes towards food for cattle, with the rest being cotton and other more specialized cash crops. alot of the grain that the world grows, a shitload of it, goes towards feeding cows, which is funny considering how little of the earths population eats most of the beef 15% total pop = 90% of all beef
Wooden cars have already been made in Lancashire UK they worked very well but could not get financial backers because the market would have been in Africa.
It is an unacceptable trajectory, yet many of us have been thinking but still cannot frankly discuss with friends, family. It is just too disheartening to bring up.
I came to that conclusion about 15 years ago. No-one wants to hear this news and will actively fight against hearing it. The best thing you can do is figure out how to live your very best life right now because that’s all you *can* do.
I'm open with people that I'm a doomer who thinks everything is just going to get worse and we are in a collapse like the Bronze Age, but global and leading to possible extinction. I find acceptance of this to be very freeing. I figure global chaos will be well underway by 2030.
@@EmeraldView it's refreshing to see journalists, scientists, and comentators like Paul starting to grapple with the reality. It's opens up the possibility of real productive discussions.
talking to little Yobs around you makes zero difference anyway. Its top down all the way. I lobbied local school to buy electric buses and they chose to buy filthy diesel instead and this was only 10 years ago when its plain that electric was better for the environment and kids who have to otherwise breathe toxic fumes. Congress, Biden and Trump wont amend the CAA to cut GHGs [which was made necessary after the SCt ruled in Mass v EPA that EPA cant regulate CO2.]
In reality in short it only affects those with children that need time to reach adulthood or have families they want to continue ....those of us without progeny and don't see humanity as worth saving can continue to try and enjoy our lives watch the fire works and look back and say well that was exciting......
You'd have to be completely egocentric and naive to want to bring new human beings this massively overpopulated planet. Thanks to those who have put their egos aside and made the ecoresponsible choice of not procreating for the benefit of other species.
I am a product of reading pivotal books and articles before the age of 10. The Population Bomb and also National Geographic articles on both Population and ecological degradation remain key concerns in my daily musings. I find solace in the idea of Planetary hospice and extracting joy and love each and every minute. Paul, glad to call you a fellow Canadian. VM
So Beckwith , with a small qualification/ quible about style, is stating here that Guy McPherson's apocalyptic climate assertions are essentially correct
We have officially hit “McPherson Bingo” (tm). The next question is whether Paul is going to suffer the same attacks that Guy did. Who knows, perhaps the zeitgeist has moved on enough. I really hope so.
There are still plenty of ppl who dont and will not believe the dire situation that we humans have put our future generations into. None of the ppl i work with , friends with and my own sons will believe this cra cra 💩 until it kicks them in the butt. By then it will be to late to prepare for what is to be a really messed up future. Proverbs: better to prepare for what might happen than not be prepared for what does happen. And, better get it while the getting is good.
Thank you for making this video and detailing this information. It is far worse than I envision and I'm a pessimist I already knew Humanity was making this planet uninhabitable. I've also been expecting a large drop and population probably of boards of 80% I would expect I'm curious what you think. Three or four out of the 11 are fairly easily managed. If farming was switched to permaculture farming fertilizers would not be needed and this would also affected the overall topsoil condition of the world. Permaculture is not difficult it's less expensive it just requires a different point of view and unfortunately changing people's ideas is difficult. Wow water is a problem specifically aquifers, I think it's a mainly a problem of water catchment. If you look at India and how they have changed their landscape in many places and manage their waterways they have revitalized their aquifers in as little as a few years. You can find evidence of this in the south of India in the state of Tamil Nadu. It's really quite amazing what the people have done to read about the lies the land. Another one is reforestation. Certainly it takes many years for trees to grow but again in places like India they are planting millions of trees a year. There are groups that are going through burned out forests and replanting saplings before the coals have even cooled off. I freely admit it's a drop in the bucket but my point is simply that there are solutions right here right now that do not require any new methods or technology or mining or resources that will benefit us and the planet. Lastly large-scale raising of cattle and chickens. So much land is being wasted to grow corn and soy to feed animals to make hamburgers it's depressing. Giving each subdivision a certain number of chickens would solve part of this problem in the United States. Same goes for a number of cows. Our biggest wall preventing the change that need to be made are corporations and the politicians they have bought off at least in this country but probably by and large throughout the whole of the world. Certainly oil coal Natural Gas Plastics rubber and transportation are the biggest contributors to the downfall or more specifically this planet becoming uninhabitable for humans but hard times call for hard decisions. We learned in 20/20 that much of the business world can be done from home and all those cars removed from the freeway and roads. That by itself would have a huge effect on the amount of pollution and then the amount of vehicles that were needed on the road. I guess what I'm saying is there are solutions every country can implement right now. Do I believe this will happen, any of what I have said above on a large scale, no sadly. This is supposed to be the beginning of the Age of Enlightenment. Maybe it will be in about 80 years with only 20% of the population Having learned from history creating a cleaner World with better morals. I don't know of course and it is terribly sad if it takes nearly raping the planet and killing over 6.5 billion people to open people's eyes and get us there. I do wonder sometimes if despite all the ways we are trying to kill ourselves and destroy our home if the cyclical solar flares that happen every 6-12,000 years will destroy us first. Which is worse, an instantaneous stop in productionEtc or a slow visible walk to the graveyard as infrastructure breaks down. Either way the end result is the same. I wish I was apart of what will become a return to an aggregarian Society but I will be dead well before that. Thanks again for this video and a link to the article. I'll pass it around to a few people but I bet no one will read it.
Always like your postings, Paul. Glad you had the courage to speak out on the (highly probable) cause of the hospital bombing. But it is very hard these days to be an optimist on so many levels. It's the Roman Empire in the 5th century...only with much worse environmental damage!
Today the israeli bombed a Christian church in Gaza , killing most of the christians sheltering there. Western media never talks about the native christians living in Gaza.
MIT did the limits to growth study in 1971 predicting collapse by 2040, they reviewed and ran similar calculations in 2021 and we're well on track. The main issue is our debt based economic system and our need for continuous growth to pay interest on all the new money (debt) that's created
Interesting that in 1971 we went from a monetary system tied somewhat to the natural world, to an entirely virtual debt based monetary system. Presumably as a way to artificially continue our "infinite growth" trajectory. I wonder if we would have already begun course correction with massive degrowth if we had stayed on the gold standard just due to finances alone.
Maybe tptb new way back then that collapse was inevitable and so they have been creating as much debt as they can get away with because they always knew they would never have to pay it back. Kind of like someone dying of a disease and racking up a huge credit card bill, deliberately.
Yeah, one of the problems not mentioned in the vid - economy is underpinned by growing fossil production, of oil in particular. On coal alone, economy cannot grow the way it has for over a century. Let alone renewables, which need endless shipments of raw materials, coz only the energy source is renewable, not the solar cells or rotor blades. When energy supply decreases, economy will shrink, and growth rol no longer will pay off the interest - US alone has over trillions of debt, which will then cause very serious trouble, for debtor and loan shark (big Finance, China) alike. Currently, oil production in the US is plateauing, oil analysts expected it to go down the second half of the 2020's as the fracking boom ends. What happens after is anyone's guess, but, some of the crises mentioned above may get a little postponed from the resulting mega-crisis. Look up Nate Hagens great simplification channel for lots of long interesting stories. Art Berman is the one to watch for oil, some of the early " Frankly s" deal with the debt issue.
I have followed you for a long time. And your journey to the inevitable conclusions. You mentioned economists who perpetuate the absurdity of infinite growth. But I would add that engineers have been complicit in the race to oblivion , even though engineering claims to be applied science. But they , like economists , are highly selective of which science they include. I suspect that archeologists examining the anthropocene in the distant post collapse future will conclude that engineers will be regarded as the slave masters of the era. They harnesed fossil fuels as the new slave of humanity without any consideration of the known consequences , both environmentally and ethically. Even now we still have professional engineeing groups professing ethical standards that are incompatible with the known science of climate change and the impossibility of infinite growth.
i remember 20 years ago, reviewing engineering reports for mining companies with a disclaimer at the end of their reports noting that all their conclusions were arrived at WITHOUT consideration of Climate Change and that further consideration should be given too some such entity with knowledge of Climate Change - thus absolving liability...., One Report that sticks out, the Minto Mine in the Yukon Territory, where metal laiden tailings piled onto a 27% slope, underlaid with permafrost. The government of the time didn't want "environmental" concerns to get in the way of a good business opportunity so regulators were hobbled from doing anything positive, compounding the issue,. When that pile lets go, the metals will go into a tributary stream some short distance from the salmon bearing waters of the Yukon River. But it's far enough away from public consciousness for the local public to care. All in the name of greed, economic growth and claims of prosperity for all!
For most people its just 'life as usual' similar to business as usual. My hypothesis here is that many people can't bare to even imagine how they could cope should any event shocking to them occur. They refuse to believe and will also deny because something appears to be simply more than they can handle mentally and emotionally.
Vote for a Peace advocate like Cornel West or Jill Stein. Otherwise the Duopoly will continue to waste Billions abroad supporting bad guys when its needed at home.
I made an antiwar music video called "why can't we live together" on my channel and that's as far as I'm going right now as far as commentary. Everything disgusts me that has to do with war, and it has for decades. The misinformation, the lying, the Ulterior motives, it's all pretty fucking disgusting. I could go as far as to say humans deserve to go extinct, but then the people I surround myself, are so beautiful that sometimes a statement like that is quite harsh. I love you, Paul, and I see your emotions right on your sleeve. It's OK, I just caution that everyone not make Pronouncements without knowing the whole story. And like I told you on Twitter X, we won't know what occurred for 20 years and we probably don't have 20 years.
People disparage Guy for taking a stand based on peer reviewed research. I’m happy Af He’s off by a decade!!! We all are. Guy is the man-he deserves a UN peace award. And Michael Mann should be deported to Gaza city for his lies and acting as controlled opposition to the truth.
Thanks Paul. I have been following you for years and this is the best you have done. Hard hitting, no false hope. I have been preaching climate change for years and people do not want to hear it. It takes some one like you with the creditability to spread the word. Why preach doom? If you know what's coming its easier to prepare.
Nobody has ever liked The Club of Rome. They are OG party poopers. Good stuff, Smil is great and the rest is what Nate Hagens, yourself and others have covered for many years. I guess collapse will finally get our attention.
What people don't realize about GHG emissions is that burning of fossil fuels just adds carbon to the carbon system. That System has 3 carbon pools. Atmosphere, water, organic matter. If we reduce plant matter in an attempt to reduce fossil fuel use, we reduce the organic matter pool and the resulting increase in the other two pools are the same.
I wish Paul would focus less on monotonously reading the work other people have written, but instead focus on discussing the work, assessing its relevance and relating it to previous results. For this specific video I've read the article myself, so I was more interested in the 11th reason Paul wanted to propose. I was happy to be able to jump forward to 1:17:13 on that. But I was less happy to find that Paul doesn't even properly explain what the 11th reason is. The bombing to the hospital itself? That's got nothing to do with overshoot or climate change. Besides, Paul is extremely heavily biased here. The tweet he shows is from Mario Nawfal, who HIMSELF has later added an answer to his own tweet: "I want to clarify, the above is NOT FACT, and it is speculation based on the information we have so far". And information is still piling up. I think we'll probably never know for sure who did this. And that's why I don't support ANY side because I totally know that there's a plethora of misinformation and I have no chance whatsoever to check what's right or wrong. Paul - who is supposed to work scientifically - should also adopt an objective view here imo, rather than falling into quick accusations based on an emotional bias. But alas, everybody has their biases. Which is my take on the 11th reason. This whole thing is a perfect demonstration that in an acute or imminent crisis human reaction tends to be dominated by emotion rather than rationality. Rationality needs evidence which again needs time to collect. Emotion is present at once, it can be instrumentalized, and it spreads in no time through the internet. That again triggers further reactions that may be irreversible, and it reconfirms previous biases regardless if contradicting evidence is found a few days (or hours) after. Hence, one can not expect that humans react onto an acute crisis in a rational way. Emotional reactions on the other side are not always helpful, but more than often chaotic, uncoordinated or even violent. In case of climate change, observation shows that there is no unequivocal emotional response, but mutual blaming, bargaining and denialism. That leads to the true 11th reason: the human psyche (which is btw the root cause of all) is not designed to master an upcoming crisis that needs a global rational answer, and the effect of evidence gets lower the more acute the crisis becomes. Chaos, hysteria and violence will gouvern the time to come.
you could Vote for a Peace advocate like Cornel West or Jill Stein. Or let the Duopoly continue to waste Billions abroad supporting bad guys when its needed at home.
I've witnessed soils go from a dark brown to a light brown sandy soil in my area. I've seen soils full of worms and other organisms to being so dry that they can only support a few ants. That's in about twenty years. The 'farmers' tile drain so they can get more than one crop in per season but that dries everything out and with the increasing temperatures (from global warming) the soil is totally destroyed. With chemical ag, the only job the soil needs to do is hold the plants upright, the rest is mainly chemical inputs being either fertilizer or pesticides and herbicides. Besides chemicals the other big fertilizer in our area is human sewage but there isn't enough sewage to go around either. All the small farms have been bought up by the big 'farmers' (through corruption), and there is little to no room for biodiversity or other farming practices. Even if (the handful of remaining) small farmers try to change the soil profile starting today, it will take many years to rebuild (rotating animals in ways that mimic herd activity will build soil but it requires fencing which is expensive etc., etc.).
Regenerative Farming is on the rise! To me, it's the solution. Find one near you, and buy all you can. I am doing the same, and looking to have a small one of my own in the next two years.
On my farm, I have noticed a total collapse of insect life. I no longer have pollinators and may crops are barren because they don’t get pollinated. My family had been on this property since 1906. I have seen massive breakdown in the eco system in my life time. I was born just after WW2. That wasn’t very long ago.
@@jayleeper1512 🥺 maybe you can reach out to regenerative farmers in your area to strategize how best to reintroduce insects and pollinators into your area. If you're not using regenerative methods, please give it a try.
@@jayleeper1512 Really....wow. I've left patches of land go fallow, and have seen a major uptick in insects and even more butterflies this past summer. I truly hope that your place can find a way to thrive. Thank you for doing your best!
Very true. Intense pushback in the comments, which is not surprising. Once upon a time I asked the question, “Well, what causes climate change?” Then I fell into the rabbit hole of Overshoot. Thanks.
My city gets its electrical power from a nuclear power plant (mostly). However, my house is heated using natural gas. If every house in my city replaced their gas heater (and water heater) with electrical, the city would have to build another nuclear power plant of the same size to power everything. If everybody in my city switched from gas to electric cars, they'd have to build three more. More likely they'd just build natural gas fueled generation plants. Fossil fuels are stored sunlight. The global oil reserves represent millions of years worth of accumulated stored and compressed sunlight. We are burning that sunlight at a rate that will finish them in a few hundred years. Ten million years of sunlight burned in two to three hundred years. There is no way any renewable energy source could possibly replace that. We need to drastically drop the energy level of our civilization, which is essentially what societal collapse is all about.
@@adelinad3513 What won't finish? Oil has run for about 200 to 250 years, and is showing signs of running out. It might run for another 100 to 150 years assuming shell oil extraction, and depending on the real level of existing reserves. It is not an endless supply, and it can never be reproduced because of the time it took to create it and the original conditions of creation (i.e., lack of plant eating bacteria). Our usage is increasing exponentially even with renewables.
@@kimwelch4652our social systems are incapable of any preventative course correction. We will all use less energy when forced to do so by physical reality. Those of use who pre-adapt to that outcome will fare the best, but it will still be very very difficult.
@@itssteve6018 Changing your path requires a choice and choice is a function of freewill. As Dolores says "Freewill does exist. It's just fucking hard."
I have been aware of most of this for years. We have survived about 20 years longer than I expected. Having grown up in the UK with the prospect of 4 minutes warning if a nuclear war started, it was always hard to be very optimistic. I also studied ecology and realised where we were all heading. I studied chemistry of the upper atmosphere at university and we had a computer model predicting a catastrophe about now. The Book of Enoch has some interesting prophecy saying the first end will be flood and the second end will be from "fire". Luckily for me and Paul, we won't die young, but Israel is at the heart of Biblical predictions of doom and I am still not at all optimistic.
@@glennkeppel9836 I was commenting on the video and not trying to strengthen my position. I was attempting to point out that the end might result from other causes. I already mentioned nuclear war, which doesn't seem unlikely, but also there could be impacts from space, or the Sun might flare. Discounting Enoch isn't making you any safer.
Knowing that Genesis is based on Sumerian gods and flood myths doesn’t help when 2/3 of the world’s population or even half believe it all to be true. True believers who are happy to hasten the return of Christ to the Mount of Olives. 😳
@@christinearmington Yes, exactly, there are many people who think that if things get bad enough Jesus is going to come and save them, and as you say, they are happy to hasten that.
@@andymccracken4046yup - they are all suicidal and have a death wish. They are very morbid. I ask them all the time - do they not have kids? Grandkids? Nieces or nephews? Like you really don’t care about anyone
Water is a big underlaying issue in Israel/Palestine. Egypt/Ethiopia is another potential flashpoint. China sits on top of Tibet with its headwaters for many major Asian river putting China in potential conflict with other countries, especially as China want to dam the Yarlung River which becomes the Brahmaputra in India and Bangladesh.
@@adelinad3513 or you can Vote for a Peace advocate like Cornel West or Jill Stein. Otherwise the Duopoly will continue to waste Billions abroad supporting bad guys when its needed at home.
If all this is to happen as you say Paul how could you say that Pherson is wrong about his theories. Have you taken into consideration of all the nuclear power plants that would cause major fallout, that along with the climate issues I believe guy McPherson could be spot on
#9 "To be fair, a country can only handle so many refugees. There is a practical limit to how many refugees a country can accept before total chaos ensues." Before the recent influx of "newcomers" we were already approaching the point where one half of the population was supporting the other half. What happens when millions of people with no education and no skills are suddenly cut off because there's nothing more to give and people are faced with feeding my family or feeding them?
I am very concerned that the coming collapse of civilization will result in a rise in the price of plain chocolate digestive biscuits. I am starting to buy a little store of them to see me through the collapse . I assume a dozen large packets of biscuits should be sufficient.
Just got a quote to basically double our home battery storage. For the same amount of storage we initially installed, the battery price has more than doubled in a couple years. Craziness.
@@adelinad3513 Money will soon be worthless. If anyone has any i would strongly encourage them to spend it now on real goods which will be impossible to acquire after the crash.
We're getting up in the years, these are the last decades of industrial civilization. If the report from MIT 1972 holds out then yes, by 2040 we're going start seeing major problems emerge.
Sand for cement is crushed from rock locally, silica sand has a larger surface area to volume ratio which allows more bonding be cement between the grains. I don't think you can extract sand from beaches in the UK due to coastal erosion.
Thanks, it's a timely reminder. Your audio is always very low levels though Paul. Appreciate your videos a lot, but could you plz increase the audio by 30 to 50% please?
Too bad Stanley Kubrick is no longer with us. We need a "doctor strangelove, or how i learned to stop worrying and love human extinction" movie. Smooth sailing comrades!
Not in Canadian winters! Not for oldest people! Not for disabled people! Not for sick people! Not for moving larger stuff or amounts of stuff from place to place!
@@SolutionsWithin I said personal transport, I am 75 and don't have a car but use a bike, cyclists abound in Finland land winters why not Canada? There are already many who cannot drive cars, it is not different.
@@dan2304 I don’t know about Finland but, again, Canada in winter is very cold and the roads are slippery and wet (read: dangerous). Bicycling is not suitable for MOST elderly, people transporting children and stuff, disabled folk, people travelling long distance, and people who do not ride bicycles or never learned. At the risk of insulting you, I think it’s a little arrogant for you to ride your bike and assume that means everyone else is capable to do that or withstand the cold, ice, regular freezing rain, long distances, and snow at any age….
@@dan2304 also, please note that many people are heading into offices where they need to get there without being covered in sweat and road injuries could make them lose work days to heal, which could be costly.
There is footage of a misfiring Hamas rocket and explosions soon after. Not much fuel would have been used after launch, so it could have possibly been that too. It seemed to have fired quickly back down from where it misfired.
An excellent article came out recently, explaining 10 reasons why our civilization will soon collapse; here is the link: www.okdoomer.io/10-reasons-our-civilization-will-soon-collapse/
Since this article is so well written, well referenced, and hard hitting I felt that it was very important to do a detailed video on it.
Given the total destruction of a hospital in the Gaza Strip today with the loss of over 500 human lives, almost certainly by a U.S. built JDAM 1000 pound bomb dropped intentionally from an Israeli warplane, I have added an additional reason to the ten in the article.
Given the events of the day, we appear to be marching closer to global catastrophe and civilization collapse, and it is hard to argue that we don’t deserve it.
Please donate to paulbeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I connect the dots on abrupt climate system change caused mayhem.
Only 11….
'.. deserve it" - > This is a religious view based on 'guilt'
I don't think you really share that.
Gurdjieff* has written about the Greeks and Romans as the basis of Western culture. These are interesting insights into how brutal and violent 'we' (as a culture) are.
*"Beelzebub's Tales for his Grandson" Part 2
*Oglala* is a Lakota word meaning "to scatter one's own." The Oglala Lakota Nation is one of the seven bands of the Titowan (Lakota) division of the Great Sioux....
Loved that 'Ogaglalalala' :)
Hard to argue that we don't deserve it! 😂
There is a very good book , immoderate greatness, why civilizations fail. By William Ophuls.
Quote: that being said, psychological vested interests are by far the greatest barriers to adaptation. “ en general we find” said William playfair, “ that all nations are inclined to push to the extreme those means by which they have attained wealth and power; [in consequence] their ruin is there by brought on with greater rapidity.
Bluntly put, human societies are addicted to the ruling ideas and their received way of life, And they are fanatically in their defense. Hence, they are extraordinarily reluctant to the reform.
To admit error and cut losses, said Tuchman, is rare among individuals, unknown among states. Instead of changing their minds, leaders redouble their efforts to do what no longer works, wooden -headedly persisting in error until the bitter end.
Wow, thanks for discussing my article! That's actually the first article I ever wrote about collapse. I tried to be thorough because I wrote it in order to convince my family, but glad to see so many others find it interesting.
Yeah, you nailed it. Fantastic job. I've published over 700 videos on my channel just trying to get across some of the points you made in this well written article.
Very intresting article. I will immediately buy a high quality water-purifier, so I can collect drinking water from any dirty water stream….
So you don't think a mix of scarcity and policy can make us change our diet to feed ourselves with less land and less fertilizers? You don't think we can improve our water management or our governance? You don't think any SDGs are attainable? You don't think any of the adaptations being implemeted around the world can make any difference? We will collapse no matter what?
Nate Hagens talks about all this stuff...
'Collapse' means somewhat different things to different people. For some it invokes a sudden and rapid socio-economic meltdown that results in a MadMax type of society. For others, it suggests a much slower, multi-decadal disintegration of the economic system, punctuated by periods of escalating social unrest, leading to widespread poverty and cycles of reducing living standards for the majority of the population.
In either case, civilization becomes considerably less complex, the global population contracts or crashes and the process of globalization goes in to reverse as citizens are forced to construct alternative local economies using far fewer high energy dependent systems.
Nobody can yet predict with any confidence which of these scenarios 'collapse' will more likely resemble. However, it can confidently be predicted that a collapse of some kind will inevitably occur before the end of this century.
40 years ago my biology teacher told the class all about overshoot. She had studied fruit fly population for her masters and showed us all the graphs and told us this was happening to us as a species
The overshoot example of the reindeer on the island is the most haunting. Not only did the reindeer overshoot their food source, but rather than simply dying off enough to be in balance, they died off to the extent that they were not able to breed any more; they went extinct on that island.
@@alexcarter8807 look at what is happening in our world
@@alexcarter8807 Yes, and it happened FAST! The population went from 6000 to 42 in two years. Now that's a crash.
she needs fruit flies to tell her 8 billion is too many?
back in the days there was a video on youtube called: the most important video you will ever see. It was a guy teaching a class about exponential growth in real life and its consequences. sums it up quit good.
It's really tough going to work every day and working on some pointless bullshit in order to pay the bills while constantly in the back of my mind there's this thought that all this might come crumbling down far before i ever reach retirement age, pay off my debts or afford homeownership.
On top of all that im watching my country drift further and further toward fascism which somehow noone seems to notice or care about.
I feel exactly the same way, the only difference being that I work from home and can watch dark doomer videos on YT while working LOL
"Fascism is capitalism in decline"
There's more of us than you think that do care about what goes on around us. We will all find each other if the events ever unfold and do whatever needs to be done to survive and thrive.
Great overview of the progression of societal collapse. All of what you stated is true involving peak oil, minerals constraints, climate change, oceans in decline and how it all ties into the destruction of our ecosystem/life supporting biosphere. If anything was left out, it would be the fallacy of a future in space exploration. This most likely will never happen given the enormous problems that confront us here ahead.
When faced with it, most people find any reason to deny it.
I was a bookworm in high school and I knew that this was coming back then. I predicted all this would happen in my lifetime and I was labeled an ‘environMENTAList’. I am now 74 and there is a reason why we have no children!
I think pollution is killing us faster than we know. You were ahead of your peers.
I figured this out in early 1970's.
I also had the sense to not have any children and am glad I stood by that decision even though I experienced the proverbial "biological clock" syndrome in my early 40's.
I'm certainly glad I don't have any progeny that will suffer through this particular future. Mass starvation, political upset and unrest, desertification, global warming etc etc etc
@@judithsmith9582 You were very wise.
so sad.
why did you do that ???
Sadly the people who should be having kids are the ones that are not and the ones that are are the ones that should not be!
The best we can do in these times is love each other and extend help whenever and wherever we can.
This should have been practiced beforehand
(You'll excuse the suggestive comparison)
"It's like having sex at age 15. A bit clumsy"
@@GleebyDawkif you go off grid, vegan is the wrong choice.
tell BP that? tell Exxon that?
I like Alan Urban's writing and his reporting on his journey from realizing that collapse is coming to prepping to acceptance.
How brave to accept death of others. This is nothing but mental preparation for genocide.
How brave to accept death of others. This is nothing but mental preparation for genocide.
How brave to accept death of others. This is nothing but mental preparation for genocide.
McPherson was wrong to put out dates, and he now knows that, but he's not wrong on the outcome. I think most climate scientists can not bring themselves to look into the Abyss that the future has for us.
If he knows he was wrong, why doesn’t he retract his ludicrous claims?
His analysis was on the basis of a prediction made by a well respected scientific body that Arctic ice would be gone 2019 by 2019 +/- 3 years. We have been blessed by an unprecedented 3 years of La Nina in a row. The El Nino unfolding now will bring the warming 'up to date' and then we will all see the truth. I could see many years ago what was inevitable as the cryosphere decline continued. Amongst these discussions reference is rarely made to the collapse of the biosphere which is measurable and definite. Clearly the larger mammals cannot survive the enormous reduction in the insect and plankton populations which is 90% for the former and approaching that in many areas of the ocean for the latter. This is easily confirmed if you wish to. @@Patrick_Ross
@@Patrick_Ross what's more ridiculous is he claims that he does not make predictions, forecasts or projections... dude gives every indication of being a gaslighting narcissist, so he can suck it as far as im concerned
He has an ego@@Patrick_Ross
like all monkey's
A couple of hundred years ago, each human community was more or less self-sufficient, but now we are all interdependent. Our industrial society relies on relatively small numbers of engineers, scientists, and technicians, and if a significant percentage of them were killed in 'natural disasters', society could collapse long before we reach any other limits.
I am the opposite of hopeful. In late 60s and still working part time. My county in Florida is over run with large pickup trucks. more homes being built and the remaining wild land is being bulldozed. An acquaintance of mine is remodeling his house to nearly 4000 square feet. Just him and his wife. None of the people I know, liberal or conservative, have let up on air travel. Globally, I see no let up on consumption combined with an ever growing upper and middle class. Minor changes around the edges, like heat pumps EVs, will do nothing if we can't reverse habits especially among the top 10%.
Yep. Duval.
I’m 80 and working full time in Florida. I drive 800 miles per week and observe same.
Yep, that top 10% encourages everybody else to pursue and consume more that's how it's advertised. Pursuing more wealth for personally excessive ambitious achievement.
@@allenfoust6713 80 you should be retired
Yeah, as William Rees said in his interview with Nate Hagens, (paraphrased) "What we CAN do is one thing and what we WILL do is another."
Paul, you've needed to put this video out for a hell of a long time.
It's a goddamned doozy, and it's exactly what the whole world needs shouted at them.
100% true, but the resultant destabilization that would occur is something that the global power structure denies, avoids, obfuscates and ignores. Sadly, ignorance IS bliss, if only in the short-term.
Been shouting on my channel for years but get nothing but suppressed
But as we see from politics and politicians most don’t live in reality but a mental constructed reality of their own choosing!
An observation: Even when serious people discuss climate change, the conversation revolves around transitioning away from fossil fuels to more sustainable green energy. It's always a discussion about how to maintain our status quo by some other means. How do we make cars and airplanes more efficient? How do we reduce the cost of heating our homes? etc. Nobody it seems is willing to even consider the possibility of just using less. And herein lies the real problem. We are not willing to do what is necessary, because we are not willing to make any fundamental changes to our lifestyles. This is why we're all doomed.
I think you're missing the mark. I think people are genuinely utterly afraid of the entire economy collapsing if they don't keep on consuming, so they do what they have always done and shop till they drop. It's the idea that if you don't buy stuff, your neighbor will die. The truth is that nothing will change, not really because people don't want things to change, but that we have built an economy that runs on its own logic. At the end of the day, bills are bills, whether you think that money is even real or not. But mortgages still get paid in dollars, and that's a FACT.
@@amrenmiller6053 Of course you make a good point. I don't think that I'm missing the mark, I'm just looking at things from a different angle. For example, people don't 'want' to give up driving cars or flying airplanes, because they have come to depend on them for work and their way of life. They really don't have a viable alternative in our unsustainable consumption driven World.
But here's the thing: I'm old, so I recall a World where there were 1/3 the number of humans. There were a LOT fewer cars, and flying airplanes was possible but much more expensive. When things broke, we fixed them, or more likely took them to the repair shop, rather than simply buying a new one. And yet, the economy did just fine. We could go further back in history to a time when cars and airplanes didn't exist at all, but again people survived quite nicely. So, it is possible to live with less ... since clearly it has already been done.
Personally, I think our civilization is WAY beyond saving. Still, if there is any hope at all, it WILL involve a 'significant' change, back to simpler times where there are fewer people, who travel less, buy fewer things which are built to last longer, and generally recognize that we live in a World of finite resources.
The alternative is that we continue to ignore the problems ... in which case Nature will simply do all this for us.
You are absolutely correct. No one wants to have and do less.
What's wrong with wanting a decent living standard? We can live very efficiently and have comfortable lives, performance fermentation, solar + sodium batteries, mass transit / EVs. This can be very positive. This can bring us under the overshoot issue
@@sebyst7907 In a word ... it is unsustainable.
Thank you for this video and thanks to people sharing in the comments. So many of us are completely alone in collapse awareness. Of course I don't and cant talk with my elderly parents about this, but I can't even have a conversation with my husband of almost 30 years. He has (after several years now) accepted my efforts toward increased preparedness and self-sufficiency, but he is not participating and we can't talk about the likely possibility of collapse without arguing. It is just such a dark topic, filled with so many uncertaintaies. Many people just cannot engage in this conversation... maybe never. To anyone else who is feeling completely alone in this, I guess we are united in our isolation. Please share any tips for dealing with all this completely alone... Thank you
Do you have a dog? If not, please go to the local shelter and rescue another lonely abandoned soul pleading for help. The loving companionship you receive from your best friend is like a miracle. This friend will make you laugh all day, take you for long walks in the outdoors, and give you kisses when others turn away, or criticize you for being a caring person.
@@ronaldturner4849 Amen 🥰
My wife gets it, but she still can't talk about it. The best I can do is discuss it with a male friend a couple of thousand miles away, by phone.
I don't even care anymore. I just live with it.
You should join the conversation with Karen Sperry and David Baum.
@@wmm30600 Or Dean Walker, and his resilience online meetings.
There’s only one question that needs to be answer if (when) we experience a “breakdown of governments and economies” (really there’s only one economy now, it’s global and it can’t stand if it loses any significant part of it). Who is going to keep all of the nuclear facilities out there from failing in some form or other and poisoning the world? Do we seriously believe that the parts and supply chains that they require will continue to be available. Will the maintenance technicians and operation staff of every reactor world wide continue to turn up to work every day when they are no longer being paid - or have food? This isn’t a hypothetical question. If we are seriously expecting economic and government collapse, then this is the end game.
My son is concerned about nuclear reactors. It takes *years* to properly shut them down. Yet now nuclear is starting to be talked about more as a savior from carbon...but decades too late.
@@Mike80528 you son is right to be concerned. I'm not really worried about new nuclear projects. Few will get off the ground (because they don't make financial sense and insurance is really hard). And there are already far more than enough nuclear facilities out there to thoroughly contaminate the planet.
We can only go extinct once right?
Also most of the nuclear weapons will be put in use, there will be a lot of wars ongoing, in the last moments of our being here.
Yes! Nuclear Power stations melting down is thee existential mega crisis we need to face. I bring this up every time people say to me....the Earth has had extinction events and life comes back, oh well. While I cannot relate to the nonchalant attitude, I get upset because it simply isn't true if we destroy our atmosphere. We have the ability to turn the Earth into a Mars-like planet or worse. When I say this people look at me and say they didn't think of that. I hate to say it, but clearly it needs to be discussed. Our world is being run in part by sociopaths. We need new leadership with a focus on planetary survival! The hard push to the far right is fear based and suicidal. If AI can be pointed at the nuclear meltdown situation maybe we can find a solution faster. A hail Mary feels necessary at this point. 🙏
@@lissyflur1907let's not say these things with such certainty... Could it happen, yes. If words have power, let's be careful or at least work in a peaceful possibility. 🙏
we waste half the food we produce
why?
@@rd264 Go back to sleep.
I cant wait! Anything is better than to go on as wage slaves longer.
Oh please.
@williamhanlon8159 it's not hyperbole. Many people out here have been so crippled by the capitalist dystopian nightmare that societal collapse is better than another 80 years in this horrificly abusive system. If you had 6 figures of debt between your education, housing and health care with no way out because despite working 60+ hour weeks you struggle just to make rent and can't afford insurance - you wouldn't be a fan of civilization either.
The age of convenience is coming to an end.
Indeed. ... in fact, the age of being alive is coming to an end.
Also the topsoil is completely removed whenever a building is built. Meaning that the farmland we lose to development will not be able to be easily redeveloped into farmland.
Guy was the pioneer and had the COURAGE to speak! And people bash him for that? How disgusting! I'm sorry but he has EVERY right to be hurt and angry.... ALL that he has done in service to humanity and you insult him for that because "he got the date wrong"? Why was he even "asked" for a f&cking "date" like that's so important - the date, Give me a break!
Humanity at its best.
Relax. Jeezus christ. Or don’t and stroke out before SHTF. May be a better approach.
@@cfitzstrum I don't take any advise from the cheap seats so you can sit the fuck down. "What is the quote about cheap seats? There are a million cheap seats in the world today filled with people who will never be brave with their own lives, but will spend every ounce of energy they have hurling advice and judgement at those of us trying to dare greatly."
Guy put in a full shift on all of what’s to unfold upon us no question about that...
I came to the realization about 2 years ago that we. as a species, were done. We've missed every opportunity to save our world. Instead, we're careening off the cliff, opting to do essentially, nothing.
I now live off grid, I'm vegetarian and try to be mindful of my environmental impact, knowing full well that my personal actions wouldn't stop the inevitable.
Why do I live this way?
I decided that I can't look my maker in the eye and admit that "I understood the problem fully and I decided to take no action, even knowing that taking no action leads to our civilizations extinction."
How could I justify that? To me, it is indefensible.
I now just live as stress free as I can, enjoying what time is left.
Paul is right. Civilization will soon collapse.
My bet it will be a large failure in the agricultural production realm that sets off the powder keg. Hungry people do drastic things. It will likely be before 2030 based on what I'm seeing reported around the world in agriculture already.
Blunt and to the point! I love your approach Paul!
Land and food are plenty...people do not know to grow food anymore and do not own enough land to feed themselves. We have been tricked into giving up our land , survival knowledge for a job in the city that will be replaced by an ai soon or not required. We have to go back to the land ( with more efficient tools ) and care
There isn’t a maker
You will meet your maker soon
'collapse early and avoid the rush' Michael Dowd
Perhaps the living will envy the dead. Michaels's suffering is over. Ours is well on the way. R.I.P M.D xx
@@juliebarks3195 it was a sad day when I learnt of his passing, such an amazing human being.
😢
Quote is by John Michael Greer.
Mr. Beckwith, I have watched you for over 7 years and you have always been very upbeat even though things looked bad. Are you finally realizing what is happening? It is bad, and has been bad which is why I moved from the U.S. 2017. Prepare yourself. It is getting rough and people are beginning to wake up. Your Canada is a very crazy place! There was a time a very long time ago that I thought of moving there. McPherson had the guts to warn people. Well, here we are. I wish you well, prepare!
McPherson says humans will be extinct by 2026. How can anyone take him seriously?
Like you. I have been listening to the upbeat level view on climate from Paul. This is not like him to give this view. Worrying.
I remember watching Beckwith and McPherson debate probably about 10 years ago now, and Beckwith was simply not agreeing with Mcpherson on anything and had a lot of positive comebacks and counterpoints. Since then over the years Beckwith has been sounding more and more like Pherson as time has gone on. He's slowly coming to some important conclusions about where all of this finally leads to.
While I do agree with Beckwith that McPherson's time lines and exact dates are just ridiculous and one should never give a date you can't possibly know lest you discredit yourself. I do agree with McPherson's outcome of human extinction.
For me it seems deadly simple with one single fact: Atmospheric CO2 remains active in the atmosphere for around 1200 YEARS once emitted before finding a carbon sink to drop into.
Just let that one thing sink in a little. That means ALL of human industrial emissions are STILL THERE TODAY in the atmosphere and will remain so for another 1000 years. So, tell me, what is the POINT of net zero? From my point of view we have already killed ourselves. We are dead men walking and just don't understand that yet. The emissions to date are already enough to continue heating the planet for another 1000+ years to come... How on earth can we possibly reel that back in?
Where are you?
Where did you move to? I’ve been wanting to leave the United States for a long time.
What a great and scary article that pulls no punches. Thank you Paul.
And a lot of bs
@@terencefield3204 It's ok to be afraid Terence. You should be. From now on every year will be worse than the one before... "Faster Than Expected." And just think... you can take pride that your right-wing denialism helped to bring this doom down upon us all. Nice!
@@terencefield3204 it's BS if YOU are delusional,...
@@nsbd90now But each year is not worse than the previous, in fact quite the reverse. Mankind is quite unique in our adaptability, we have frameworks to measure, monitor, review, adapt that has got us this far, our success is incredible. There are resources that are finite such as Fossil fuels, they should be viewed as a stepping stone that will carry us to energy sources that are less resource hungry, but in the near term to medium FF energy is not an issue, right now large numbers of people are working on the energy solution.
Before you start jumping up and down claiming use of FF will result in global temperatures rising and extreme weather events, if you look you will find there are many who for scientific reasons question the current narrative. These of course could be considered delusional, but to make that claim it is necessary to hear and understand the arguments being put forward , and those without that are the delusional ones.
I will ignore the ridiculous political rant to spare your blushes.
you
@@mikeheath6516 Oh look. Denialist claptrap pretending to "scientific reasons" of grifters, lunatics and outliers vs. 99.99% of climate scientists.
The evil in the world is our unwillingness to compromise, not the consequences from our refusal. It happens because the people who refuse to compromise aren’t the people who have to suffer the consequences of their refusal.
Out of all the comments for this video, even the article and the video itself, yours is the only that comes straight to the heart of the matter of all of this.
It's our own inability to see that we are all human, no matter who we are, and that our unwillingness to unite as one to face the present and coming dangers is what's going to, and probably will lead to our downfall and collapse.
The human mind has to change if we will ever have a chance to see a brighter future...
I fear that will never happen.
The root of the problem is that we demand to live in "civilisation", with all its purported comforts and conveniences (ignore the negatives like pollution, alienation, wage enslavement, diseases of abundance, meaninglessness, mass extinction, anomie, etc). And for awhile there were enough ready "resources" handy to make that possible, at least for many. Now that ship has sailed, and no matter how much you love your civilised comforts and conveniences, they are going away, certainly for the vast majority of people. So we are all faced with two options: 1) Die. 2) Learn to live without civilisation, as humans did for hundreds of thousands of years before we went off on this bizarre, destructive, and short-lived tangent. It was a purple patch, a blowout, a bender, and now we've woken up on the cracked pavement of a barren parking lot with a massive hangover and all our possessions gone. We made a Faustian bargain, and the time to pay the devil has arrived.
It is ironic that the development of agriculture also planted the seeds (heh! a pun!) of our destruction and possible extinction.
I don't know what the civilizations that follow us will look like but I am certain they will depend on agriculture. You can't put that genie back in the bottle.
Might not BE any civilizations after us???
@@alanj9978back to rotational grazing because no more synthetic fertilizer
There is one huge difference since the last time we faced extinction. Today no one has ever tried to survive without civilization. Furthermore the last time it was ”only” a super volcano and many locations on Earth was rather pristine. This is not the case today. Extinction is everywhere with ecosystems breaking down. This is not a survivable habitat - especially not the organisms at the top of the food chain - such has well - humans.
That’s what people don’t grasp. They think we’ll go back to a simpler time and live like the pioneers.
Some indigenous populations remain (and maybe on every continent except Europe)
The poor have had to servive in spite of civilization.
Survivors will revert back to tribal small group living methinks
Nobody in modern civilization has the skills to survive a collapse. Perhaps old school natives, Amish, that know the old ways of doing things. However, even they have come to rely on modern conveniences.
"the problems world leaders have let spiral"
No. President Jimmy Carter brought this to our attention, and we summarily fired him. It's not the leaders...that's STILL MORE denial of responsibility! 🤣
Did they also forget to mention the loss of aerosol masking if the green new dream ever starts to pick up speed?
Nothing gets better with 8 billion people.
Mostly Africa and India. Western countries have been declining for decades. Same with East Asia.
@@marcv2648 thats such a BS argument, its always made by people who pretend global over population and global warming is a 3rd world problem and and its being addressed by the West birth rate. The West created this world wide mess and you are trying shift it to the poor nations.
Reality is a harsh lesson. Sooooooo many people are not there yet. What an shocking awakening awaits.
Every couple thinking about having children should be required to treat this article.
I fell down the peak oil rabbit hole in 2011. I had my first child three years later. Theres a lot more going on in intimate relationships than "wont have kids bc times will be trying." Reality is, their mother is chicana and their cultural memory is one of struggle. Reproduction is natural and desirable for most people. I didnt want kids, but my desire to be childless was not as important as my desire to be a partner to my wife.
We are not deer, deer do not adapt their environment to themselves. We are also not fruit flies.
You realize that Western populations are dropping fast. Same with East Asia. We will not have a large enough generation of competent people to maintain what we already have. Most population growth is in India and Africa.
overpopulation and global warming is so obvious however you define it but its pointless to carp about it because the duopoly dont give hoot
Iceland, Greece and Easter Island-all collapsed due to overshoot. Iceland probably cattle and sheep, Greece was goats, and Easter Island was all resources at once.
Paul lists 11 factors, any one of which by itself could bring about massive societal disruption, if not civilizational collapse. But we are facing all these looming issues and choke points - and many more besides - concurrently. Given this reality, it is inconceivable that at least some form of civiizational collapse can be avoided.
I've spent much of the past 4 years reading about and listening to everything I could find which relates to these issues. And though I have 3 beloved 20-something aged step-children, I am no less sure that our societies will begin to experience severe social and economic disruptions long before they reach their 50s.
I think........maybe.........I'll take my social security now instead of waiting another five years.
When the humans depart, the surviving animals on land, sea and air will shake their feathers in joy and inspiration. The trees, the meadows, the rivers will welcome the sun, the moon and the stars transforming the atmosphere as heaven on Earth. The Earth will smile, there will be a profusion of life on Earth, thank God no humans with guns to tread and kill in the jungle.
Paul never fails and is a real ray of sunshine, his positivity brightens your day and is a geniune cheery soul.
Never fails?? What about his prediction for an ice-free Arctic in 2013?
It's taken me a long time to realize and accept this. I still haven't fully, but my hopium is on the last wispy fumes.
I grew up in NYC. When i was a kid, we had fireflies in my backyard. Since then, I've lived in Pennsylvania.
There are less fireflies in Pennsylvania now than there were in NYC in the 90s.
Paul, firstly thank you for your efforts and secondly humanity is not up to the tasks required they including ourselves would want our many consumer goods and in a crisis history demonstrates that an authoritarian leader and fascist ideology offers the worst of all hopes. So, saying again a warm thank you over the years for your explanations. Ian
Growing food at scale was always tricky enough in the most ideal climate. In the US Midwest, I suspect the increased CO2 and warmer climate of roughly 1990-2010 was as ideal as it gets. Problem is climate change is exponential and we’re leaving the Goldilocks zone. Also, after a certain point crop production declines exponentially. It is not a linear decline with each 1C of warming. Net result will be a crop production cliff. I can’t say what year that will be but it could be real close.
Supposedly around 4 degrees. Not that close.
@@alanj9978 Bad things have happened in the Midwest when summers have reached 2.0C. 2012 was not a good year, the dustbowl of ‘36 was not fun, 2022 in western Kansa did not go well. None of these years were anywhere near +4.0C
@@anabolicamaranth7140 Regional droughts and problems are not global agriculture collapse.
@@alanj9978 The Midwest only grows 1/3 of the world’s grain. Things are going much better down in Brazil where it’s currently 105F. Spain’s olive crop has been excellent in the recent 115F heat. The only reason it’s so cool in India and the Midwest is we’re burning megatons of coal and those sulfates do block the sun. Why do you think 8 of Madrid’s 10 hottest days have been since 2017? No sulfates. Why has Pittsburgh had ZERO record highs the last 10 summers while Phoenix had 12 just in July 2023?
the types of crops we grow should also be considered. around 2% of the farnland used in the u.s. for growing crops its actually used for growing stuff we eat. a vast majority goes towards food for cattle, with the rest being cotton and other more specialized cash crops. alot of the grain that the world grows, a shitload of it, goes towards feeding cows, which is funny considering how little of the earths population eats most of the beef 15% total pop = 90% of all beef
I am building a renewable car made completely made out of wood. It works pretty good but the motor keeps catching on fire.
😂
Wooden cars have already been made in Lancashire UK they worked very well but could not get financial backers because the market would have been in Africa.
Great show, Paul, you are 100% right on all of this.
The planet is in Ester Island mode.
Forget civilization. It looks like your desk is about to Collapse. Thank you for the videos, sir!
Thanks Paul, your videos are very informative. I appreciate all your time and effort! Thank you 🙏🏼
We've been chipping away at the Earth for a long time. Now it's time for the Earth to chip away at us.
It will shake us off like a bad infestation of flees. Now that it has plastic.
@@globalwarming382George Carlin was right ✅️ 👏 👌 😂 🙌 👍
The earth will survive.
Mankind?
No guarantees.
yawn
It is an unacceptable trajectory, yet many of us have been thinking but still cannot frankly discuss with friends, family. It is just too disheartening to bring up.
I came to that conclusion about 15 years ago. No-one wants to hear this news and will actively fight against hearing it. The best thing you can do is figure out how to live your very best life right now because that’s all you *can* do.
I'm open with people that I'm a doomer who thinks everything is just going to get worse and we are in a collapse like the Bronze Age, but global and leading to possible extinction. I find acceptance of this to be very freeing. I figure global chaos will be well underway by 2030.
@langdons2848 That's been my experience too. You can't talk to people who don't want to hear it.
@@EmeraldView it's refreshing to see journalists, scientists, and comentators like Paul starting to grapple with the reality. It's opens up the possibility of real productive discussions.
talking to little Yobs around you makes zero difference anyway. Its top down all the way. I lobbied local school to buy electric buses and they chose to buy filthy diesel instead and this was only 10 years ago when its plain that electric was better for the environment and kids who have to otherwise breathe toxic fumes. Congress, Biden and Trump wont amend the CAA to cut GHGs [which was made necessary after the SCt ruled in Mass v EPA that EPA cant regulate CO2.]
Like it's said in the article, enjoy life now, cos it will only get worse.
I need to dig out my bucket list.
In reality in short it only affects those with children that need time to reach adulthood or have families they want to continue ....those of us without progeny and don't see humanity as worth saving can continue to try and enjoy our lives watch the fire works and look back and say well that was exciting......
Morbid curiosity 💀💥🫠
You'd have to be completely egocentric and naive to want to bring new human beings this massively overpopulated planet. Thanks to those who have put their egos aside and made the ecoresponsible choice of not procreating for the benefit of other species.
I am a product of reading pivotal books and articles before the age of 10. The Population Bomb and also National Geographic articles on both Population and ecological degradation remain key concerns in my daily musings. I find solace in the idea of Planetary hospice and extracting joy and love each and every minute. Paul, glad to call you a fellow Canadian. VM
in your daily musings there is solace and love and joy to extract
So Beckwith , with a small qualification/ quible about style, is stating here that Guy McPherson's apocalyptic climate assertions are essentially correct
We have officially hit “McPherson Bingo” (tm). The next question is whether Paul is going to suffer the same attacks that Guy did. Who knows, perhaps the zeitgeist has moved on enough. I really hope so.
I’m pretty sure the zeitgeist has moved on, at least for our neck of the woods. Especially after the summer (northern hemisphere) of 2023. ⚡️🔥💀🤦♀️
There are still plenty of ppl who dont and will not believe the dire situation that we humans have put our future generations into. None of the ppl i work with , friends with and my own sons will believe this cra cra 💩 until it kicks them in the butt. By then it will be to late to prepare for what is to be a really messed up future. Proverbs: better to prepare for what might happen than not be prepared for what does happen. And, better get it while the getting is good.
@@christinearmington glad to hear that. It's well past time.
Precisely! Hopium Dealer extraordinaire PB; Buck up and tell the truth: NTHE is around the next corner not down the road a few more decades, if ever.
Thank you for making this video and detailing this information. It is far worse than I envision and I'm a pessimist I already knew Humanity was making this planet uninhabitable. I've also been expecting a large drop and population probably of boards of 80% I would expect I'm curious what you think. Three or four out of the 11 are fairly easily managed. If farming was switched to permaculture farming fertilizers would not be needed and this would also affected the overall topsoil condition of the world. Permaculture is not difficult it's less expensive it just requires a different point of view and unfortunately changing people's ideas is difficult. Wow water is a problem specifically aquifers, I think it's a mainly a problem of water catchment. If you look at India and how they have changed their landscape in many places and manage their waterways they have revitalized their aquifers in as little as a few years. You can find evidence of this in the south of India in the state of Tamil Nadu. It's really quite amazing what the people have done to read about the lies the land. Another one is reforestation. Certainly it takes many years for trees to grow but again in places like India they are planting millions of trees a year. There are groups that are going through burned out forests and replanting saplings before the coals have even cooled off. I freely admit it's a drop in the bucket but my point is simply that there are solutions right here right now that do not require any new methods or technology or mining or resources that will benefit us and the planet. Lastly large-scale raising of cattle and chickens. So much land is being wasted to grow corn and soy to feed animals to make hamburgers it's depressing. Giving each subdivision a certain number of chickens would solve part of this problem in the United States. Same goes for a number of cows. Our biggest wall preventing the change that need to be made are corporations and the politicians they have bought off at least in this country but probably by and large throughout the whole of the world.
Certainly oil coal Natural Gas Plastics rubber and transportation are the biggest contributors to the downfall or more specifically this planet becoming uninhabitable for humans but hard times call for hard decisions. We learned in 20/20 that much of the business world can be done from home and all those cars removed from the freeway and roads. That by itself would have a huge effect on the amount of pollution and then the amount of vehicles that were needed on the road. I guess what I'm saying is there are solutions every country can implement right now. Do I believe this will happen, any of what I have said above on a large scale, no sadly.
This is supposed to be the beginning of the Age of Enlightenment. Maybe it will be in about 80 years with only 20% of the population Having learned from history creating a cleaner World with better morals. I don't know of course and it is terribly sad if it takes nearly raping the planet and killing over 6.5 billion people to open people's eyes and get us there.
I do wonder sometimes if despite all the ways we are trying to kill ourselves and destroy our home if the cyclical solar flares that happen every 6-12,000 years will destroy us first. Which is worse, an instantaneous stop in productionEtc or a slow visible walk to the graveyard as infrastructure breaks down. Either way the end result is the same. I wish I was apart of what will become a return to an aggregarian Society but I will be dead well before that. Thanks again for this video and a link to the article. I'll pass it around to a few people but I bet no one will read it.
Only 11, Thanks heavens for that I was worried we were in trouble
Thanos told us before you ever did. This universe is finite, its resources, finite. If life is left unchecked, life will cease to exist.
One of your most intresting videos, Paul.
It's an eye-opener for me, of what to (soon) expect.....
Thank you for emphasizing all these points
Always like your postings, Paul. Glad you had the courage to speak out on the (highly probable) cause of the hospital bombing. But it is very hard these days to be an optimist on so many levels. It's the Roman Empire in the 5th century...only with much worse environmental damage!
Greek and Roman are the brutal mental basis of our culture.
"WE have the right and duty to subjugate everyone"
He's full of shit and knew it when he posted but made excuses:
ua-cam.com/video/8HCgJMQhKvE/v-deo.html
Today the israeli bombed a Christian church in Gaza , killing most of the christians sheltering there. Western media never talks about the native christians living in Gaza.
MIT did the limits to growth study in 1971 predicting collapse by 2040, they reviewed and ran similar calculations in 2021 and we're well on track. The main issue is our debt based economic system and our need for continuous growth to pay interest on all the new money (debt) that's created
Interesting that in 1971 we went from a monetary system tied somewhat to the natural world, to an entirely virtual debt based monetary system. Presumably as a way to artificially continue our "infinite growth" trajectory. I wonder if we would have already begun course correction with massive degrowth if we had stayed on the gold standard just due to finances alone.
Maybe tptb new way back then that collapse was inevitable and so they have been creating as much debt as they can get away with because they always knew they would never have to pay it back. Kind of like someone dying of a disease and racking up a huge credit card bill, deliberately.
Yeah, one of the problems not mentioned in the vid - economy is underpinned by growing fossil production, of oil in particular. On coal alone, economy cannot grow the way it has for over a century. Let alone renewables, which need endless shipments of raw materials, coz only the energy source is renewable, not the solar cells or rotor blades. When energy supply decreases, economy will shrink, and growth rol no longer will pay off the interest - US alone has over trillions of debt, which will then cause very serious trouble, for debtor and loan shark (big Finance, China) alike.
Currently, oil production in the US is plateauing, oil analysts expected it to go down the second half of the 2020's as the fracking boom ends.
What happens after is anyone's guess, but, some of the crises mentioned above may get a little postponed from the resulting mega-crisis.
Look up Nate Hagens great simplification channel for lots of long interesting stories. Art Berman is the one to watch for oil, some of the early " Frankly s" deal with the debt issue.
@@itssteve6018 we will soon go back to that
@@itssteve6018 There is a reason China has been getting all the gold it can and keeping it.
I have followed you for a long time. And your journey to the inevitable conclusions. You mentioned economists who perpetuate the absurdity of infinite growth. But I would add that engineers have been complicit in the race to oblivion , even though engineering claims to be applied science. But they , like economists , are highly selective of which science they include. I suspect that archeologists examining the anthropocene in the distant post collapse future will conclude that engineers will be regarded as the slave masters of the era. They harnesed fossil fuels as the new slave of humanity without any consideration of the known consequences , both environmentally and ethically.
Even now we still have professional engineeing groups professing ethical standards that are incompatible with the known science of climate change and the impossibility of infinite growth.
What inifinite growth if our fossil fuel use is going down?
i remember 20 years ago, reviewing engineering reports for mining companies with a disclaimer at the end of their reports noting that all their conclusions were arrived at WITHOUT consideration of Climate Change and that further consideration should be given too some such entity with knowledge of Climate Change - thus absolving liability...., One Report that sticks out, the Minto Mine in the Yukon Territory, where metal laiden tailings piled onto a 27% slope, underlaid with permafrost. The government of the time didn't want "environmental" concerns to get in the way of a good business opportunity so regulators were hobbled from doing anything positive, compounding the issue,. When that pile lets go, the metals will go into a tributary stream some short distance from the salmon bearing waters of the Yukon River. But it's far enough away from public consciousness for the local public to care. All in the name of greed, economic growth and claims of prosperity for all!
This is really alarming why this video is not on main stream?
Because mainstream wants business as usual indefinitely.
there is a documentary coming out soon called ecosophia exactly about all this
For most people its just 'life as usual' similar to business as usual. My hypothesis here is that many people can't bare to even imagine how they could cope should any event shocking to them occur.
They refuse to believe and will also deny because something appears to be simply more than they can handle mentally and emotionally.
Find a regenerative farm near you and support it. A regenerative transition is paramount for future generations to have a chance.
Vote for a Peace advocate like Cornel West or Jill Stein. Otherwise the Duopoly will continue to waste Billions abroad supporting bad guys when its needed at home.
I made an antiwar music video called "why can't we live together" on my channel and that's as far as I'm going right now as far as commentary. Everything disgusts me that has to do with war, and it has for decades. The misinformation, the lying, the Ulterior motives, it's all pretty fucking disgusting. I could go as far as to say humans deserve to go extinct, but then the people I surround myself, are so beautiful that sometimes a statement like that is quite harsh. I love you, Paul, and I see your emotions right on your sleeve. It's OK, I just caution that everyone not make Pronouncements without knowing the whole story. And like I told you on Twitter X, we won't know what occurred for 20 years and we probably don't have 20 years.
why cant we live togethor ?
@@rd264 well if you want my answer it's religion.
Drugs, lots of drugs
Guy is largely correct…so it’s the 2030’s at the latest…a decade off.
People disparage Guy for taking a stand based on peer reviewed research. I’m happy Af He’s off by a decade!!! We all are. Guy is the man-he deserves a UN peace award. And Michael Mann should be deported to Gaza city for his lies and acting as controlled opposition to the truth.
Thanks Paul. I have been following you for years and this is the best you have done. Hard hitting, no false hope. I have been preaching climate change for years and people do not want to hear it. It takes some one like you with the creditability to spread the word. Why preach doom? If you know what's coming its easier to prepare.
Nobody has ever liked The Club of Rome. They are OG party poopers. Good stuff, Smil is great and the rest is what Nate Hagens, yourself and others have covered for many years. I guess collapse will finally get our attention.
They weren’t wrong. Or at least the computer wasn’t wrong.
🔥 The writing is on the wall.
What people don't realize about GHG emissions is that burning of fossil fuels just adds carbon to the carbon system. That System has 3 carbon pools. Atmosphere, water, organic matter.
If we reduce plant matter in an attempt to reduce fossil fuel use, we reduce the organic matter pool and the resulting increase in the other two pools are the same.
Stop it with the carbon bs...we have way bigger problems that will kill you first
I wish Paul would focus less on monotonously reading the work other people have written, but instead focus on discussing the work, assessing its relevance and relating it to previous results. For this specific video I've read the article myself, so I was more interested in the 11th reason Paul wanted to propose. I was happy to be able to jump forward to 1:17:13 on that. But I was less happy to find that Paul doesn't even properly explain what the 11th reason is. The bombing to the hospital itself? That's got nothing to do with overshoot or climate change. Besides, Paul is extremely heavily biased here. The tweet he shows is from Mario Nawfal, who HIMSELF has later added an answer to his own tweet: "I want to clarify, the above is NOT FACT, and it is speculation based on the information we have so far". And information is still piling up. I think we'll probably never know for sure who did this. And that's why I don't support ANY side because I totally know that there's a plethora of misinformation and I have no chance whatsoever to check what's right or wrong. Paul - who is supposed to work scientifically - should also adopt an objective view here imo, rather than falling into quick accusations based on an emotional bias.
But alas, everybody has their biases. Which is my take on the 11th reason. This whole thing is a perfect demonstration that in an acute or imminent crisis human reaction tends to be dominated by emotion rather than rationality. Rationality needs evidence which again needs time to collect. Emotion is present at once, it can be instrumentalized, and it spreads in no time through the internet.
That again triggers further reactions that may be irreversible, and it reconfirms previous biases regardless if contradicting evidence is found a few days (or hours) after. Hence, one can not expect that humans react onto an acute crisis in a rational way. Emotional reactions on the other side are not always helpful, but more than often chaotic, uncoordinated or even violent.
In case of climate change, observation shows that there is no unequivocal emotional response, but mutual blaming, bargaining and denialism. That leads to the true 11th reason: the human psyche (which is btw the root cause of all) is not designed to master an upcoming crisis that needs a global rational answer, and the effect of evidence gets lower the more acute the crisis becomes. Chaos, hysteria and violence will gouvern the time to come.
Thank you!
To discuss you need to be able to think. This channel is not for debating and finding the truth but for pushing the main narrative without discussion.
Don’t worry, AI will be along shortly to rescue humanity from itself.
you could Vote for a Peace advocate like Cornel West or Jill Stein. Or let the Duopoly continue to waste Billions abroad supporting bad guys when its needed at home.
Wow you actually read this one 😮
I know, I'm just as surprised 😮 😲 😯 😅 😂 🙃
Thank You Very Much Paul.
I've witnessed soils go from a dark brown to a light brown sandy soil in my area. I've seen soils full of worms and other organisms to being so dry that they can only support a few ants. That's in about twenty years. The 'farmers' tile drain so they can get more than one crop in per season but that dries everything out and with the increasing temperatures (from global warming) the soil is totally destroyed. With chemical ag, the only job the soil needs to do is hold the plants upright, the rest is mainly chemical inputs being either fertilizer or pesticides and herbicides. Besides chemicals the other big fertilizer in our area is human sewage but there isn't enough sewage to go around either. All the small farms have been bought up by the big 'farmers' (through corruption), and there is little to no room for biodiversity or other farming practices. Even if (the handful of remaining) small farmers try to change the soil profile starting today, it will take many years to rebuild (rotating animals in ways that mimic herd activity will build soil but it requires fencing which is expensive etc., etc.).
Regenerative Farming is on the rise! To me, it's the solution. Find one near you, and buy all you can. I am doing the same, and looking to have a small one of my own in the next two years.
On my farm, I have noticed a total collapse of insect life. I no longer have pollinators and may crops are barren because they don’t get pollinated. My family had been on this property since 1906. I have seen massive breakdown in the eco system in my life time. I was born just after WW2. That wasn’t very long ago.
@@jayleeper1512 🥺 maybe you can reach out to regenerative farmers in your area to strategize how best to reintroduce insects and pollinators into your area. If you're not using regenerative methods, please give it a try.
@@seidemsh that is all I use.
@@jayleeper1512 Really....wow. I've left patches of land go fallow, and have seen a major uptick in insects and even more butterflies this past summer. I truly hope that your place can find a way to thrive. Thank you for doing your best!
This was an ice water bath of reality that has been shared by Rees, Hagen, Jensen and others for sometime now
Very true. Intense pushback in the comments, which is not surprising. Once upon a time I asked the question, “Well, what causes climate change?” Then I fell into the rabbit hole of Overshoot.
Thanks.
My city gets its electrical power from a nuclear power plant (mostly). However, my house is heated using natural gas. If every house in my city replaced their gas heater (and water heater) with electrical, the city would have to build another nuclear power plant of the same size to power everything. If everybody in my city switched from gas to electric cars, they'd have to build three more. More likely they'd just build natural gas fueled generation plants. Fossil fuels are stored sunlight. The global oil reserves represent millions of years worth of accumulated stored and compressed sunlight. We are burning that sunlight at a rate that will finish them in a few hundred years. Ten million years of sunlight burned in two to three hundred years. There is no way any renewable energy source could possibly replace that. We need to drastically drop the energy level of our civilization, which is essentially what societal collapse is all about.
We won't. We will see collapse in full earnest by the end of this decade.
It won't finish
@@adelinad3513 What won't finish? Oil has run for about 200 to 250 years, and is showing signs of running out. It might run for another 100 to 150 years assuming shell oil extraction, and depending on the real level of existing reserves. It is not an endless supply, and it can never be reproduced because of the time it took to create it and the original conditions of creation (i.e., lack of plant eating bacteria). Our usage is increasing exponentially even with renewables.
@@kimwelch4652our social systems are incapable of any preventative course correction. We will all use less energy when forced to do so by physical reality. Those of use who pre-adapt to that outcome will fare the best, but it will still be very very difficult.
@@itssteve6018 Changing your path requires a choice and choice is a function of freewill. As Dolores says "Freewill does exist. It's just fucking hard."
I have been aware of most of this for years. We have survived about 20 years longer than I expected. Having grown up in the UK with the prospect of 4 minutes warning if a nuclear war started, it was always hard to be very optimistic. I also studied ecology and realised where we were all heading. I studied chemistry of the upper atmosphere at university and we had a computer model predicting a catastrophe about now. The Book of Enoch has some interesting prophecy saying the first end will be flood and the second end will be from "fire". Luckily for me and Paul, we won't die young, but Israel is at the heart of Biblical predictions of doom and I am still not at all optimistic.
Quoting from a book that didn't know where the sun went at night is not strengthening your position.
@@glennkeppel9836 I was commenting on the video and not trying to strengthen my position. I was attempting to point out that the end might result from other causes. I already mentioned nuclear war, which doesn't seem unlikely, but also there could be impacts from space, or the Sun might flare. Discounting Enoch isn't making you any safer.
Knowing that Genesis is based on Sumerian gods and flood myths doesn’t help when 2/3 of the world’s population or even half believe it all to be true. True believers who are happy to hasten the return of Christ to the Mount of Olives. 😳
@@christinearmington Yes, exactly, there are many people who think that if things get bad enough Jesus is going to come and save them, and as you say, they are happy to hasten that.
@@andymccracken4046yup - they are all suicidal and have a death wish. They are very morbid. I ask them all the time - do they not have kids? Grandkids? Nieces or nephews? Like you really don’t care about anyone
Thankyou Paul to defending palestinian people from criminal
attacs.
If It rests humanity in this world.Peace and .Justice.
Water is a big underlaying issue in Israel/Palestine. Egypt/Ethiopia is another potential flashpoint. China sits on top of Tibet with its headwaters for many major Asian river putting China in potential conflict with other countries, especially as China want to dam the Yarlung River which becomes the Brahmaputra in India and Bangladesh.
China is planning 5 dams. 🌊🌏
And as American you can stir all these conflicts and win big by pushing your war industrial complex to take sides in these potential conflicts. 😢
@@adelinad3513 or you can Vote for a Peace advocate like Cornel West or Jill Stein. Otherwise the Duopoly will continue to waste Billions abroad supporting bad guys when its needed at home.
If all this is to happen as you say Paul how could you say that Pherson is wrong about his theories. Have you taken into consideration of all the nuclear power plants that would cause major fallout, that along with the climate issues I believe guy McPherson could be spot on
#9 "To be fair, a country can only handle so many refugees. There is a practical limit to how many refugees a country can accept before total chaos ensues." Before the recent influx of "newcomers" we were already approaching the point where one half of the population was supporting the other half. What happens when millions of people with no education and no skills are suddenly cut off because there's nothing more to give and people are faced with feeding my family or feeding them?
We now know it wasn't 500 people.
I am very concerned that the coming collapse of civilization will result in a rise in the price of plain chocolate digestive biscuits. I am starting to buy a little store of them to see me through the collapse . I assume a dozen large packets of biscuits should be sufficient.
It's soft toilet paper for me.
They will spoil very quickly. Better to buy the raw ingredients and learn to make your own :)
It's hot Cheetos and Mickey's 40s for me
i like those foamy slippers for keeping my feet warm
In a Hunter/ gather society, you would have to go harvest them in the wild then take them back to your camp for consumption.
Aerosol masking effect.
Just got a quote to basically double our home battery storage. For the same amount of storage we initially installed, the battery price has more than doubled in a couple years. Craziness.
Because real resources are real and dollar is a worthless currency. How would your battery go with an emp?
@@adelinad3513 Who knows? Nobody really. But when the grid starts going down we will still be able to pump water and such.
@@adelinad3513 Money will soon be worthless. If anyone has any i would strongly encourage them to spend it now on real goods which will be impossible to acquire after the crash.
We're getting up in the years, these are the last decades of industrial civilization. If the report from MIT 1972 holds out then yes, by 2040 we're going start seeing major problems emerge.
Sand for cement is crushed from rock locally, silica sand has a larger surface area to volume ratio which allows more bonding be cement between the grains.
I don't think you can extract sand from beaches in the UK due to coastal erosion.
The key is to compare to life outside of civilization.
Thanks, it's a timely reminder. Your audio is always very low levels though Paul. Appreciate your videos a lot, but could you plz increase the audio by 30 to 50% please?
Really excellent presentation !
I think it is unwise to attribute blame and characterize various attributes of munitions without expertise or experience.
Too bad Stanley Kubrick is no longer with us. We need a "doctor strangelove, or how i learned to stop worrying and love human extinction" movie. Smooth sailing comrades!
It's called Living in the Time of Dying
Thank you for this powerful video. BTW, I may be wrong, but I think the word is pronounced o gah LAH lah.
Most rubber used these days does not come from trees.
Wow! Great info as always!💖
Robotic cars are as unrealistic as 100% renewable. Bicycles are a more realist option for personal transport.
Self riding bicycles! What a great idea! I could get my bike ride out of the way and watch tv at the same time! Wow!
Not in Canadian winters! Not for oldest people! Not for disabled people! Not for sick people! Not for moving larger stuff or amounts of stuff from place to place!
@@SolutionsWithin I said personal transport, I am 75 and don't have a car but use a bike, cyclists abound in Finland land winters why not Canada? There are already many who cannot drive cars, it is not different.
@@dan2304 I don’t know about Finland but, again, Canada in winter is very cold and the roads are slippery and wet (read: dangerous). Bicycling is not suitable for MOST elderly, people transporting children and stuff, disabled folk, people travelling long distance, and people who do not ride bicycles or never learned. At the risk of insulting you, I think it’s a little arrogant for you to ride your bike and assume that means everyone else is capable to do that or withstand the cold, ice, regular freezing rain, long distances, and snow at any age….
@@dan2304 also, please note that many people are heading into offices where they need to get there without being covered in sweat and road injuries could make them lose work days to heal, which could be costly.
There is footage of a misfiring Hamas rocket and explosions soon after. Not much fuel would have been used after launch, so it could have possibly been that too. It seemed to have fired quickly back down from where it misfired.
I hope that’s proven true. 🥺
Israel aide admitted to the bombing on twitter only to remove the comment after huge backlash
@@christinearmington The dead don't know the difference either way.
Lol the title with the picture is hilarious. Well done.
Please consider upgrading your tech capabilities to include showing the web pages directly, rather than using a camera.
Beautifully explained.