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Living in Japan as a Chinese expat, I can’t help but feel that the Japanese auto industry is heading for trouble. Few people here speak foreign languages, and the society feels like it exists in an enormous bubble. Content creators in Japan keep churning out clickbait videos claiming that "EVs are doomed" (you’d know what I mean if you speak Japanese). They even pin Nissan’s struggles on its push toward electric vehicles... which is honestly laughable.
They are complete dumbasses because Japanese media never focuses on problems like mental health crisis or rising poverty. Japanese people live in such a bubble, they support Trump even tho Trump wants to tariff the Japanese economy to death just so that they can buy American stuff. The media like NHK always blast negative news on other Asian countries so that they look down upon other Asian people. These Japanese netizens are so god damn stupid they believe that all battery tech is the same, they can't grasp the fact that battery tech has massively advanced in the last 10 years, making them massively more durable and have superior performance.
Japan is a strange one. A country that has zero oil resources and has to import ALL its oil from US/ME. One would think they would be favorable to electrification, especially if an oil embargo could cripple the country. Don't they remember the reason for attacking Pearl Harbor?
The thing is that for the time being, a hybrid of one type or another will keep the Japanese and Chinese car industry going. In the end, the Japanese will have to front up and see where the rest of the world is heading. And It is not Hydrogen for us everyday consumers by the way!. The latest craze is that hybrids are the way to go. However, in about 3 to 4 years everything will be quite different. BEVS will be the norm, because battery tech is improving so fast, and the implementation of charging stations as well, plus the sheer cost of running an ev is pennies compared to imported Diesel or petrol to run your hybrid. I own an ev and a diesel 'ute' so I live in both worlds at the moment, and cannot wait to test drive a Shark next month ( a plug in hybrid - oh well, better than nothing I suppose, as my diesel bill each month is over $300).
@@TerryHickey-xt4mf The rest of the world isn't heading to EV's. Sales in Europe have flattened. It's an infrastructure problem, that cannot be resolved in a few years. It will take decades. There is no demise of fossil fuels. There is so much misinformation being banded around. Come to the UK and look at the proportion of ICE versus EV's. You will be shocked.
Yep! They are following the anti-EV narrative started in the USA only moreso. Japan is built on perfecting a process developing relationships rather disruption and change. They're also afraid of what will happen to unemployment if they make the changes, not to mention the cozy relationship their car companies have with big oil. They are comfortable with all of the hookups they've cultivated over decades. Hard to even think about slowing that flywheel.
In Guangdong, diesel cars can't be sold new for a good few years now, and if you already own a diesel car, your only choice is to drive until it dies as it can't be sold on the second hand market either. I live in Zhuhai, all city buses are electric and EVs are omnipresent including all taxis/Ubers, I think the NEV ratio is much higher than 10% in this city. Zhuhai traffic is particularly quiet, only wheel friction can be heard most of the time, and that's a stark contrast to Hong Kong or Macau (neighboring cities) where traffic stinks and crushes you with noise.
China is doing this to get rid of smog and to reduce reliance on imported oil that could be blockaded by US (they have coal for now but these reserves are starting to reduce and they do not want to rely on the 5 eyes country Australia for coal). Future seems to be nuclear
Moore's law completely misstated. If you ban something by government fiat what do you expect to happen to sales? .... ( except that in the case of drugs and marijuana it only created a blackmarket and by driving the price of legal drugs eg tobacco too high it not only created an illicit trade but triggered an underworld trade war with hundreds of legal tobacco shops being torched (burnt down) - google it. Same thing happened with alcohol prohibition in the US , it made the mafia. What are econuts going to do when there is no tar to repair the roads (another well publicised issue in Victoria with potholes destroying some cars) and pharmaceuticals, chemicals, fuel for emergency helicopters, fertiliser for your food and long haul trucks etc etc etc. Gloating over the destruction of industry and life support systems to satisfy misguided doomongers like Greta is tragic.
I am now contemplating buying EV or ICE cars & I trend towards former as I can get abundant of free (well almost if sunny day always) sunlight or A$90 to fill my tank up every fortnight towards a Japanese car. Latter doesn’t make sense
One small correction, China's reduced industrial oil demand isn't about slow growth; instead, the Chinese government is pushing for the industry to electrify, to replace whenever possible the use of fossil fuels with electricity. It's, thus, a structural and likely permanent change, as opposed to something temporary that could be reversed if or when China's industry improves.
@@garethrobinson2275 I think that's the law he meant but it too would have been incorrect. Also, Wright's Law is a cumulative doubling of production results in a consistent reduction or cost, not a specific reduction in cost - it depends on the industry. Again, this doesn't apply to economies of scale in commodities, especially mature ones.
@machoopichoo2 Batteries are not a mature technology, at least not EV batteries. The fall in cost has been and continues to be consistent and highly significant. Bye-bye gas cars!
@@garethrobinson2275 Yes, batteries very much fall under Wright's law because they are a manufactured product. Gas/petrol really doesn't, as it's a commodity (admittedly technology like fracking impacts it). Economies of scale apply but not Wright's Law. Now, I am not sure what would signify EV batteries being "mature." One could argue they are mature, given LFP surpassing NMC. Regardless, they are on a steep costs decline curve and you are correct, this spells the inevitable doom of ICE for transport.
It also blows me away that people think BMW, Mercedes, Audi etc are "Luxury vehicles". What's luxury about a vehicle which are endless money pits for repair after repair? I'm glad that China has figured that out and not buying those rolling pieces of junk which just help mechanics retire early.
Its a pity that the world authority on reliability does not back u up JD Power rates EV's as more unreliable , and certainly more expensive to repair, especially after a collision ,they are written off. Hence the much higher insurance premium. BTW , sams numbers are way off china only uses 13% of world oil , and the majority of that is for other things, fuel is probably less than 10% U have the plastics industry, paint, materials etc . a very small % is also used in oil powered electric stations
I'm hoping the prices for EV's will drop further. In Holland prices are extremely high. It's much cheaper to keep your ICE vehicle running until it falls apart.
Less dependence on oil means one can still sleep even if conflicts erupt in the Middle East. In the past, rising oil prices was very painful for Chinese consumers.
there is many elements of crude oil , fuel and diesel is one of them , using less of it doesn’t mean less crude drilled. just means the fuel will be stock piled while the other elements still required are used , this could reduce fuel prices , rather than increase them
Actually, just about everything that can be made from oil can be made from other sources. We even already have the tech, patent-free (as the patents have already ended), due to all the research on it done in the 70s (the oil crisis when middle east countries threatened to permanently stop selling oil to the US and its allies). It's just a matter on investing more on figuring how to ramp up production and reduce costs, as that part of the research didn't get done because the crisis ended. BTW, the whole reason we use oil for a lot of those things is that we need the oil for fuel anyway, so it's getting extracted and refined whether we use the non-fuel parts of it or not; to put it another way, fuel is subsidizing all other oil usages. Remove fuel from the equation, and extracting oil for those other things might not be economically feasible anymore.
yep, I think you're right about that.... but Sam rarely knows what he's talking about. "Moore's law might never be wrong but Sam's law is the direct inverse of Moore's law. .... and he didn't even apply Wright's law correctly Moore's Law is the observation that the number of transistors on an integrated circuit will double every two years with minimal rise in cost. Intel co-founder Gordon Moore predicted a doubling of transistors every year for the next 10 years in his original paper published in 1965. Wright's Law is a phenomenon that predicts that the cost of a technology will decrease by a constant percentage each time its global production doubles. The law is named after Theodore Wright, a US engineer who first observed it in the 1930s
@@RoverIACI’d have to disagree with you that Sam rarely knows what he’s talking about when it comes to EV’s. Though I disagree with him on American politics, I find him to be quite astute. Writes law, if I recall correctly, has to do with the cost prediction. When a product manufacture cumulatively doubles production costs savings are typically on the order of 20%. Conversely, if a product were to scale down, the same rules apply but in reverse, making cost of goods sold more expensive to the manufacturer. Moore‘s law, is a law of compute, to which I’m less familiar.
Sam is right (or Wright, ha!) even when he gets it wrong. We know his bigger meaning. I've criticized him occasionally for missing a fact or data point here or there. But in the broad strokes, he's dead on right... or Wright.
Sam has been wrong about virtually everything....name something he has predicted that has come true.and I'll give you a dozen mad things he has said that didn't. Go back to any old video from a few years ago and what his predictions....all wrong..😅
Gas will first get cheaper as there is a glut. Then many refineries will stop making gasoline OR will have to raise the price of each gallon to make their needed profit. Then gas stations stop getting as much business and start closing or not carrying gas. The effect will be a huge jump in the price of gas as well as it being harder to find. This will cause even more consumers to buy EVs..... rinse and repeat.
If these people predicting the exact path forward were right 55% of the time, they would be immensely wealthy. Don’t express too much confidence based upon static measures and changing models.
I think range of 500 km+ (310+ miles) is a tipping point for EV. Once industry crosses that, EV will become default choice and ICE become a niche choice. I am from India and we will see same changes as China. My home has 10 kwh solar power plant and generates lots of surplus to power my car usage.
I visited Spiti valley Leh Srinagar etc last year, an EV going up and down those mountains would be awesome…. If you added some weight (water) at the top and dumped it at the bottom, you could just about do a round trip for very little??
Plenty of EVs that already have that range...and simply put...most people don't need anywhere near that range. EVs have already reached a tipping point. They're 20% of this year's New Vehicle sales Globally. Solar is being put up massively in Global numbers and Battery Storage will remove most of the issues with transmission.
@@davidc2838 Agree most people don't need that range, but crossing that range figure opens up a mental barrier that stops us from making EV default choice. Now that mental barrier is gone, people will adopt more swiftly.
Have you researched what Moore's Law reaaly is , one tip it as absolutely not nothing to do with the cost of the petrol or anything related , "Moore's law is the observation that the number of transistors in an integrated circuit (IC) doubles about every two years."
Hey Viking, Moore's Law is every 18-24 months compute power doubles. Wright's Law is every doubling of production there is industry specific % reduction in cost. Auto is 20%.
Sam doesn't really understand American politics. Hell, we Americans don't either. There's nothing remotely rational about it. It's good he's our sensible Aussie friend and advisor. US oil majors don't even want to drill baby drill. They have overcapacity and know global demand will drop. They want to slow EV adoption to protect their prices for a few more years until the old execs retire and cash in. But at some tipping point they'll announce, hey, we're energy companies, and they'll pivot to renewables, looking all saintly and such. It's the American Two-Step. It's our crazy hypocritical way. But once we get it right, watch out!
They already are shifting over to renewables. I think that is why Shell went public; so they could make money off a dying business and move investments to solar. They have some of the biggest solar farms in the world now.
Solar doesn't produce enough energy the best chance you have is nuclear. Also china makes most of the solar panels and lithium batteries. How would this work with the heavy tariffs that trump wants?@sd70cal
Venezuela and Canada have plenty of natural gas and oil. The U.S has a huge amount of coal they could burn in clean coal power plants. It doesn't make sense for the U.S to go electric and solar on a mass scale @sd70cal
Shell and BP are already scrambling to set up chargers in Germany. I actually got their charging cards because the prices they offer (especially BP through their Aral brand) are pretty good, and most chargers they set up are 500 kW chargers, on par with Tesla. I think ICE will be obsolete a lot faster than most people think. This spells doom for the German and Japanese car industries who f...d around and are about to find out. They are now trying to catch up and I hope for Germany and the German economy that they will be successful.
Lots of ways to help. Live in walkable city & neighborhoods, cycle, walk, scooter , transit. Try to arrange as much of you life in Europe’s idea of 15 min cities. If you can life car lite (one car) do it.
If you want to support your local economy like most of you want to. Stop spending on gas. Instead of sending it to Saudi Arabia. Buy an EV and every penny saved stays in our country and locally.
Well, that depends on how you generate your electricity to charge your EV. If you import the oil, coal or gas (or uranium for that matter!!!) for power generation then you're still dependent on other countries. Bring on the renewables!
@frostcb2 most of the rare elements produced for EV batteries come from outside the US. Also with the new administration, we will be energy independent as before..
The concept of ev is absurd to sit for hours at a charging station waiting is nonsense and the cost to charge is more expensive than gas. Not to mention the damage to the planet the manufacture of the ev have. So is ev really the answer. And let's not forget the decreased performance in the cold.
Our main car was a Fusion plug in hybrid and 2nd was an 2012 Ford Escape. The Escape got to the point where it was beyond it's useful life so we traded it in and got a Mustang Mach-e. That was almost a month ago and we haven't purchased any gas since as I've only driven the Fusion on rare occasions and have been driving the Mustang most of the time. The point being is most families will find they'll leave the gas guzzler home and take the EV when it's available as I expect families to have both types for decades to come.
I spent a couple of weeks in London earlier this yeat, and there are many electric buses and taxis, Oh and more EVs than I expected (Something to do with the ULEZ - Ultra-low emissions zone) that covers greater London). I live in the East Midlands and I'd guess aroind 20% of cars are EVs and quite a few Hybrids too.
Why will there be Global job losses with EV adoption. EV's are so Damn efficient in everything. Just think, it takes an army of mechanics to keep an ICE car on the road. Regular Oil changes, Regular Maintenance, Oil Drilling, Oil Exploration, Pipelines, Pipeline Maintenance, Pipeline Pumping Stations, Gas Stations, Gas Station Attendants, Super Tankers, Arctic Drilling, Offshore Drilling, ect ect ect. All of this will be gone or mostly gone when EV adoption occurs. In the Oil Industry they have a saying "Chaos equals Cash". There is a lot of Chaos keeping ICE vehicles on the road. EV's are the future...
Except mining of the minerals has become incredibly inefficient. Copper for instance used to be up to 90% pure coming out of the mines, now it can be as low as 1% coming out of the mines. See Professor Simon Michaux (Geologist and mining expert). He explains it in great detail. The mining still requires most of what you mentioned (as part of the distribution infrastructure) for the minerals "Oil Drilling, Oil Exploration, Pipelines, Pipeline Maintenance, Pipeline Pumping Stations, Gas Stations, , Super Tankers, Arctic Drilling, Offshore Drilling, ect ect ect." All still needed even with EV adoption. In addition its also been calculated that to mine the minerals for a full transition will take a 1,000 years. (British and US Geological survey) The only place in the chain that is changing beyond recognition in the manner that you point out is point of use, end users. Manufacturing has of course changed, but that's nothing new. Its more likely that we run out of the raw materials, and that is what will determine where the industry goes. Sorry to be a downer, but that's the reality. We will all be worse off, its actually quite depressing if everyone doesn't get their heads round it and come up with solutions.
EV`s is the future but the future is not now... Now EV`s is horrible because the battery technology is bad. EV batteries for example HAVE TO be heated to warmer the +0C to be able to charge at all (colder then that and the battery is ruined if it is charged). EV`s is a bad solution to a problem that only exist in large cities. Co2 is not pollution and global warming is a scam, even if it was not a scam highet temperatures and more Co2 is only beneficial to life on earth..
@@OMGAnotherdayi can tell u we die faster if we keep using ICE for 30 years more. what you said is trying to exaggerate a problem over tons of advantages from using EVs sooner than later. people like you never could create a better future for mankind and yes you are a loser downer.
luckily the electric grid requires equally large number of people to exist, and the even more regular other repeair and maintenance on the ev-s are also will keep the people in their jobs. similarly all the mining and other stuff. evs will reduce jobs around zero percent.
I just charted US EIA data for barrels of oil exported to China monthly from 2018 to Sept 2024. I don't see any drop off trend. A couple spikes in 2022 and 2023, but generally averaging a bit over 100,000 barrels per month.
I've been thinking for a while that when the oil industry goes into decline, production costs will start rising. A lot of oil infrastructure (huge oil tanker ships, giant refineries, massive fleets of distribution transport, huge gas station networks) will become white elephants. Much of that stuff has fixed maintenance costs, which will be spread over a shrinking customer base. So yeah, we could see prices rise as demand falls.
Gas stations can serve a dozen customers in 5 minutes. That's why they can afford to occupy prime commercial real estate, and offer facilities. They don't want someone wasting that valuable space for an hour. That's why they are usually on cheap land- at the back of empty parking lots, no facilities, shelter etc.
Chemical (non-fuel) use of oil for plastics, cosmetics, lubrication are just a _drop_ compared to the oil used for fuel. Globally about 100-million barrels of oil a day for fuel energy -- you could pave a multi-lane plastic highway across N America with a few days' worth of that! Without the energy component, fossil fuel companies will be just a shell of their former selves. They will be restructured into "fossil chemicals" industry and providers of long chain hydrocarbons. They will operate vastly differently than they do today. And the world will be a better place.
So it really comes down to can China more easily and economically make electricity vs obtaining oil? Their already making lots of EV's so this is certainly plausible.
In the COP21 in Paris on November 2015, most countries including USA agreed to take actions to fight climate change and transit to clean energies for the upcoming years. One year later Trump was elected for the first time and abandoned de agreements saying that his government would not risk their economy and as a consequence, European countries lower their pace to reach the climate targets, but China did the complete oposite thing and accelerated their rhythm which gave them years of advantage to build the clean energy industry they have today and reaching their climate goals 6 years before the initial target.
Is it just me being cynical, or are oil companies installing EV chargers in the UK to slow down EV adoption by charging very high prices per kWh? I’ve noticed that independent chargers like Tesla are normally half the price as those owned by petrochemical companies.
While China will be benefiting the most from EV adoption (sans Norway), the U.S. will be much slower to adopt EV’s at the same rate because of two things. One; America already produces more oil than it needs and two; new refineries will be built or converted to take up the light crude we produce masking the global effects of any massive instabilities in the oil market; of course that assumes a government push to enhance those things. 🥶 Don’t get me wrong an EV’s incredible efficiency and continual improvement spell the end of the “ice age” (what a pun), but it will happen at a glacial pace! 😝 Slower than perhaps any other western country except Britain.
Petroleum is used in plastics, fertilizer, and most things we use in the modern world. There will still be a huge market for petroleum in the foreseeable future.
Hi this was the craziness of pushing up prices. The ill educated morons, did not see that it's use is so wide spread that vilifying it was a very bad idea! So much so that the average Joe in the USA voted them out of office, thuis the harsh but true words. When the economy is crashing and you cant work out why, maybe look back upon the decisions you made. Luckily it is all reversible. Take care M
You are correct! As a matter of fact, petroleum is too precious to be burnt! Having said this, the proportion of oil going to the chemical industry is only about 10% of the total. Little note: no oil... or very little... is used to manufacture fertilizer... that industry uses natural gas, rather.
Also, plastics are used on a myriad of applications. Plastics are not evil per se, but they do need careful disposal or, better, meaningful, viable reutilization. Petroleum is an amazing energy source, and humanity has spent gigantillions of dollars over the last century in infrastructure, r&d, improvements. It would be unwise to abruptly end its usage.
@@brunesi Thankfully capitalism doesn't care for the losers, so oil - which can never compete in energy price with renewables - will get wiped, and likely earlier than most people expect. Have you heard about what is happening with electricity generation in Pakistan? The utility companies have a deal with the government to supply electricity from gas plants, a deal that was supposed to lock natural gas demand in place - but since they can't prevent individual people from importing solar panels and batteries, and using those to go off-grid, the electricity utilities already lost about a third of their market to rooftop solar, and it's accelerating; in a few years Pakistan might stop using natural gas for energy, *despite* the government wishes, due to market forces, which will turn all the equipment used to import that natural gas and generate electricity from it into stranded assets likely to be sold for scrap.
I am so excited about your show. Please slow down a little bit. When I was in engineering school we got a zero if we did not add units to the numbers. Please add relative information with numbers like 5% or 10% in order to bolster clarity. Respectively yours, The Electric Donkey
If you look to Norway. The gas prices had gone down. They also use to have a sale every weekend. The EV sales in Norway is now at 93,6%. Only 0,6% pure gasoline cars are sold. 2,1% pure diesel, and 3,7% hybrids (with or without a plug).
Norway produces a massive amount of OIL (Gas). So they can charge whatever they want. Most countries in Europe and other places cannot. As EV's begin to dominate, the gas prices will go up.
You can also bin all exhaust systems most gearboxes .. most conventional poppet valve piston engines .. reduce breaking systems. fuel metering and ignition systems.
@@clivestainlesssteelwomble7665 EV hit more miles with far more less maintenance. EV has a longer life too. Their performance are excellent. Combustions are definitely obsolete. I have experience with more than 100 car mechanics. Most of these dudes are criminals. Thieves.
you'd be surprised at how fast things get adapted once it makes finacial sense. So many developing countries never had landline phones and went directly to cellular phone. As solar and wind make electric production cheaper than coal, why wouldn't they go directly ?
The issue is that United States is there is narrow focus on more oil "drill, baby drill," that you don't ever really hear much talk about reducing consumption.
Spoken like a pathetic liberal tree hugger... Hey genius when you learn to read and change channels,, you will find out how toxic it is to mine lithium.. or my favorite how much your pile of junk is worth in 5 years.. go ahead buy a nice old EV,, the day you understand energy density,, you will find out how fast that is worthless and less kilometers..
With that many EV's on the road you'd think they come up with a new way to put out EV car fires, maybe some kind of foam the incapsulates the whole car. A new line of firetrucks may be in our future or maybe a built in system that turns the car into cannoli like on that Stallone/Bullock movie.
Porsche’s research into efuels will pay off when the cost will match retail fuel prices. There will still be a small percentage of collectible ICE vehicles in garages and the only available fuel will be the $5-10/L e-fuel
@@JohnSmith-x3y8h it isn’t about efficiency. It is about availability and socially being acceptable alternative to Dino juice from the ground. These collectible ICE cars are worth protecting and driving still instead of being stuck in a museum.
Yep and where do they get their coal? The politicians screw us by allowing all our coal to be exported for cheap energy overseas, while our prices go through the roof and the grid becomes more unreliable.
BYD's PHEV is severely underrated. They are much cheaper than pure EVs, run on electricity for daily commute with a home charger and no range anxiety for long trips.
Battery technology is advancing rapidly, yearly. Hybrids, PHEVs, are a stopgap. Legacy automakers will bet on that, it's easier for them, but it's just another dead end.
what is this range anxiety? I drive around, car gets low on charge, I go to a charger and top up. It's easy. Did 300 miles one day last week stopped for 9 minutes.
You can keep your EV battery topped up while it is sitting idle at home or your workplace. You can't do that with an ICE vehicle. And the Chinese now have production batteries that can charge several hundred km in 5-10 minutes, with better coming next year.
Great to see Sam. Would be great to see coverage on Asian and African countries that are moving towards green energy and EVs - fossil fuel companies are trying to prevent these markets from going green and they’re the markets that have lots of sun and should never be buying oil from other countries.
I would think less demand in China would cause more supply in the rest of the world driving prices down. Trump promised to increase supply which should lower prices even more.
I hope Musk can drag him out of that. In fact, it seems Big Oil refused to fund his campaign and Trump is looking for vengeance. Without estranging his oil-crazy Rep backers, so it is a tightrope, but there's a shift - and Musk is part of it.
Highly advanced and affordable EVs are already entering the market, and in 3-5 years, choosing a new EV over a used ICE car-which is essentially a dinosaur-will be a no-brainer. What’s the resale value of a 3-5-year-old smartphone today? Almost nothing. The same thing will happen with ICE cars. Once people realize this, that’s it-ICE is over. No sales, nothing, worldwide.
That's a very silly analogy. A smart phone and a car may be made of mostly the same materials, and made in factories. But that's where the similarity stops. One can easily replace a lost or broken phone within hours, with little disruption to ones life, let alone the price £300 v £30,000! try doing that with a car. EV or not!
@@OMGAnotherday You’re trying to explain why people kept buying feature phones even after affordable smartphones became available. You’re right-because throwing £300 down the drain is easy and simple, and you can always buy a smartphone anytime. But throwing £30,000 down the drain is a completely different story. You won’t be able to sell your used ICE car to anyone, and you’ll have to keep driving it yourself for 20 years just to avoid losing all that money. And maintaining it will cause more trouble than keeping a horse on your apartment balcony today. Once you realize that, you won’t buy a new ICE car NOW, even if there are still plenty of used ICE cars on the road.
So I am not sure if gasoline or diesel will be more expensive, if demand will decrease … usually means that gasoline will be cheaper, neoclassic economic theory, demand and supply … why cannot current gasolin stations sell electricity as well? It might be another turn to this … meaning gasoline will be cheaper, not more expensive!? Please comment why not!
It will get cheaper in the short term but then quickly get more expensive as under utilized assets put a bigger overhead on every unit of oil remaining.
Oil will always be used, not it current quantity. All those war destruction machineries will always use some of it as qty to power ratio. Mayb, cheap oil around the corner.
The world's food production is reliant on oil whether being produced, shipped and distributed. We don't have replacement machines and we can barely afford to replace with existing technology. It will probably take twenty Years to complete the change if it's affordable.
Actually farming is going to change a lot in the coming decades. There are a lot of R&D going on with robotics and electrification at the center of the research. When earlier the machines got bigger and bigger to limit the cost of labour, the introduction of robots have made size a secondary factor. For a lot of work smaller are more cost effective. It's more like overgrown robotic lawnmovers but with other tools.
@@tilapiadave3234 No! What @iscadean wrote is perfectly true! There are already electric farming equipment. I live in the boonies in central France, and one of my neighbors has bought an electric tractor. I haven't asked him how long his battery lasts... but I see him use it pretty much from dawn to dusk... and I shall ask him, it's an interesting question. Ok, it's the first and only one in the region... electrification of farming is still a nascent trend... and yes, the percentage of electric-farming machines is still very low... I have found no statistics, but I take little risk to say that it is inferior to 1 %. BUT the trend has started... and what @iscqdean wrote is NO lie, but perfectly true!
@ @ try this. ua-cam.com/video/u-i08DJNYTY/v-deo.htmlsi=kQxj85nV_4lFMHgI. There’s more. Just try to find stuff. Or bury your head in the sand. You’re a denier. I get it. But try seeking out information. There some interesting stuff going on. Electric boats, electric planes, electric cars, trucks and buses. It happening around the world.
Sam, the large oil and petroleum companies cannot make the same money selling electricity. For a start, they don’t control the sun and wind like they do with oil and gas. Secondly electricity consumers in many countries can produce most of their own energy on rooftops and store it in their own batteries. There is no pathway for monopolies in the new energy economy. Except in possibly solar panel production or battery production. But the margins are very low and manufacturers don’t get much if any money in the selling of electrons from their solar panels and batteries. Tesla represents the new energy model with the highest potential for profit. Big oil companies like Shell will never get anywhere near Tesla and the Chinese batttery and car makers. It’s over for Shell and BP.
Don't be silly. There are plenty of places for the LARGE DOLLAR Investments from BIG OIL to take parts of markets, especially since many Automakers failed to create the infrastructure. Tesla has done well...but plenty of room for BIG OIL to change and supply ENERGY in a different format.
Petrol and diesel will for the foreseeable future become cheaper as there is an oil glut right now. This also helps slow the move to EVs as people wait for EVs to become affordable. Its a slow transition, the end is purely electric simply due to future economics of cheap EV and running costs.
Most of the electricity in China comes from coal power, which accounted for 62% of electricity generation in 2021 and is a big part of greenhouse gas emissions by China
But it changing. 37% renewables in ten years? 66% in another ten years. 100% in another ten years. So about 2040. It’s coming. Don’t whine about how it is? Look forward. They are.
They built a lot of coal plants for the base load. Solar and wind do have enormous scale as well but both need the coal plants to make sure the power grid is stable. Eliminating coal completely is just not technically feasible at this point…
@@MrGuitar1975 rubbish. Battery storage evens out peaks and troughs. The biggest producer of battery storage? China. Coal was used because they have lots of it buy it expensive to extract, expensive to transport and expensive to burn. They’re closing coal fired power stations and replacing with renewables. FFS they produce the world’s solar panels.
Also the statement gas is going up is incorrect gas prices are going down we got a new sheriff in town and they are determined to reduce the price of oil remember to make batteries huge machines have to refine 25 tons of rock just to get enough raw material to make one car battery also in the process to refine all the metals in the car requires a lot of petroleum so regardless of electric cars we still need petroleum to make them and I just don't see a lot of electric cars in my travels across the United States The cost of petroleum because we are in an oil-based economy when this goes down it brings the price of everything down even electric cars.
While you may well be correct as to the price of raw oil (not even sure, as it is a very complex and political market), the costs of refining and distribution will go up with decreasing volumes.
@@HappyClapper63 No, they are going down primarily due to ever cheaper manufacturing costs. Look, Tesla has recently GROWN substantially their automotive gross margin, to pretty much industry record level, WHILE decreasing prices at the same time. How could that be possible, if manufacturing costs were not going down rapidly?
In Germany the prices for EVs are still insanely high. It is hard to justify paying 40k € for a small car when ICE cars are available for 20k. Waiting is the smartest move currently.
I believe most of the cost of fuel is the artificially high cost of crude oil. When oil crashes to $25 per barrel (so sayeth Tony Seba), pump prices should still be lower, not higher.
@JohnSmith-x3y8h only 5%? Where did that statiscic from? What is used to make all of the body panels, wire insulation, sound deadening, carpets, glues, sealants, battery housings, laminate glass layer, computer screens, exterior and interior light covers, tyres, cooling and brake hoses, brake pads, non leather interior materials, dash, LED light bulbs, computer housings & components, buttons, handles, etc? What do you use to ship and fly all of those items and cars around the planet?
Glory!!! After so much struggles I now own a new house with an income of $330,000.00 every month God has kept to his words, my family is happy again everything is finally falling into place.
There are millions of old ICE cars on the roads. They will be buying gas for years to come -- clearly in declining amounts but big oil has time to make the transition.
Nope. The rate of increase of EVs is massive. Plus Battery Storage is ramping up massively too. ICE manufacturers will collapse rapidly...which means that New Vehicle Sales of ICE vehicles will collapse even more quickly. That means that no-one will want to buy used ICE vehicles. The Fleet of vehicles that are New Vehicles are the ones driven the most. Taxis, Delivery, Etc. and they are all going EVs. People will mothball their older ICE vehicles.
The irony is that Australia (in Victoria) still has the highest electricty rates in the world, despite Govt pushing solar... Thats all we want. Cheaper electricity from whatever viable and feasible..
'Ice is finished'? Are you overlooking the surge in PHEVs? In China, PHEVs now make up some 60% of NEV sales and they definitely include a ICE. They may not get used much (daily commute) but are going to be around for a long time even as ICE only vehicle sales decline.
I would think the opposite. I think gas (petrol) prices would drop, due to the competition by the EV sector. With fuel no longer having the "monopoly" on energy for transportation, it would force them to reduce prices, or, their obsolescence becomes a "self fulfilling prophecy". If they want to remain a major player in energy for private transportation, they need to remain cost effective enough, to keep people from transitioning to EV's.
Nope. They will limit the amount of gasoline / diesel produced through limited refineries. OIL doesn't have to be drilled...it can be left in the ground and taken out more slowly.
Lots of Gas Stations are being shut down. More than are being Built. There's companies like Buckey's that are building "Attractions" that are more about the Food and Shopping than the Gasoline. They will do well for a decade or so...but everntually will lose business as less and less people need gasoline / Diesel.
I just went on a trip from my home in Georgia up to Canada and back a 4,000 mi trip I think I saw one Tesla on my trip. it's going to be a while before the gas prices are going to be affected by electric cars.
Souh Dakota is the same way, but it's not surprising in a farming community. You'd have to visit California or somewhere like Austin Texas to see more of them. Maybe other areas might have an uptick in adoption now that space Karen has gone fully RW nutter.
But gas prices and EV sales are not directly linked. Gas prices are governed by the cartel called OPEC and is based on how they control the market release of their product - like diamonds. EVs are being made by one major global producer and China (500,000 sold last month!)will flood the market to ensure dominance using price to sway consumers into buying. World grids can cope with the increase in electricity by using renewables to wean the world off fossil fuels. What has OPEC got? Only price using supply in a reducing demand situation. But by doing so, they reduce their income. Eventually, the market will crash and prices will go up and a tipping point reached. It’s a battle between electricity and fossil fuels not EVs and petrol. Electricity is getting cheaper every day. Fossil fuels are going up.
You have certainly not been looking attentively. Last August, we drove from southern France to our home in central France, a 400 mile trip. The kids (well.. the grand-kids actually) break the highway boredom by counting Teslas (we were deiving in one!), just about the only easily recognizable brand by 5 and 7 yo kids. We counted 169 Teslas in just 400 miles!!! In Norway, but also in the Netherlands, gas stations have already started closing because of dwindling business. And the rate of change is only increasing!
Really. The GTA area has thousands of them. Every other car was a Tesla last year I was there. Plus, you should really go to California. Unreal the amount of EVs in general.
Hmmm... decrease in demand usually means lower prices. But, oil production will be adjusted to keep prices as stable (and profitable) as possible. It's the way it has always been. They're still building gas stations in the US. We've had 4 new gas stations (2 Murphys and 2 Circle Ks) in the last year in the small town where I live. I was hoping some of these would offer EV charging, but haven't seen that yet.
@ the energy producers don’t sell electricity that’s given to a third party like Ampol and many others and you just shop around when ever you want to and charge energy retailers when ever you want to.
@@tilapiadave3234 False! Tesla has the lowest finished-good inventory in the industry by a long shot! Almost 100% of Tesla's finished-good inventory are cars in transit between the factories and their purchasers.
Have not found anything supporting the "literally tens of thousands" comment, but sales did fall. Maybe they can be shipped to Belgium, the Netherlands, France or Spain as their demand is still increasing. Germany's drop in demand it directly connected to the unexpected withdrawal of purchase incentives. Buyers are waiting for them to return.
i forget its name but theres a law about complexity of systems and how long it takes to transition them. the more complex a energy system is the harder the transition/upgrade is, the more systems already using grid means more interruptions and the longer it takes.(its also why theirs been no alien contact or signs of a 'type 3 civ' out there[our concept of what a type 3 civ looks like is fatally flawed by our extrapolations of our current cultural system]) we had to stay ahead of china we started WELL ahead but we had the more complex system to transition. once they pulled ahead it was all over red rover now we have to come to terms with new reality and use their systems for a generation AT LEAST like they had to while they where catching up
There is no infrastructure even if it reaches tipping point. For instance where I live, the grid gets flooded with solar energy it can't store in summer. In winter we face shortages. Even if we had the capability to store in summer until winter or generate more in winter there is no infrastructure to transport this to the places of high demand. Not to mention this renewable energy producing infrastructure and EV batteries require lots of petroleum and rare minerals for it to be manufactured. Then there's all the daily products we use which rely on oil. The tipping point is meaningless from a macro-economic point of view.
China is still building coal plants whereas in many countries in the west coal plants are closing or already done so. Oil will continue to be used for many decades. Claims of peak oil are widely exaggerated
1) coal isn't oil 2) Chinese coal plants are far more efficient than the ones they're replacing 3) Chinese coal plants are far lower utilization than previous. The high numbers are required to fill in for renewables adoption 4) will eventually be replaced by nuclear Chinese actual coal usage probably peaked last year. At worst, this year, despite record capacity. Utilization is key, just Google it.
Isn’t it the supply of oil that is important in this equation as well? I mean like OPEC countries can control the supply of oil in the world basically. So what would the consequence if a demand decrease?
That sounds great, petrol stations becoming recharging stations. Can't wait for that beautiful clean clear air and no annoying noise levels from ICE as EVs increase in numbers. Carbon emissions from cars are a huge reason for global warming, import tax on EVs is not good for the planet and its environment. We should be encouraged to buy them.
U ppl sound so foolish ev are technically worse do ur reserve smh u have so many other things doing way more damage to the air than cars so miss me with clean air speech
@@jermaineogarro2124 And EVs seem to cause a lot of fires that cant be put out as easy as ICEs Just seems great for the environment doesn't it? but no one will talk about that lol
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Living in Japan as a Chinese expat, I can’t help but feel that the Japanese auto industry is heading for trouble. Few people here speak foreign languages, and the society feels like it exists in an enormous bubble. Content creators in Japan keep churning out clickbait videos claiming that "EVs are doomed" (you’d know what I mean if you speak Japanese). They even pin Nissan’s struggles on its push toward electric vehicles... which is honestly laughable.
They are complete dumbasses because Japanese media never focuses on problems like mental health crisis or rising poverty. Japanese people live in such a bubble, they support Trump even tho Trump wants to tariff the Japanese economy to death just so that they can buy American stuff. The media like NHK always blast negative news on other Asian countries so that they look down upon other Asian people. These Japanese netizens are so god damn stupid they believe that all battery tech is the same, they can't grasp the fact that battery tech has massively advanced in the last 10 years, making them massively more durable and have superior performance.
Japan is a strange one. A country that has zero oil resources and has to import ALL its oil from US/ME. One would think they would be favorable to electrification, especially if an oil embargo could cripple the country. Don't they remember the reason for attacking Pearl Harbor?
The thing is that for the time being, a hybrid of one type or another will keep the Japanese and Chinese car industry going. In the end, the Japanese will have to front up and see where the rest of the world is heading. And It is not Hydrogen for us everyday consumers by the way!. The latest craze is that hybrids are the way to go. However, in about 3 to 4 years everything will be quite different. BEVS will be the norm, because battery tech is improving so fast, and the implementation of charging stations as well, plus the sheer cost of running an ev is pennies compared to imported Diesel or petrol to run your hybrid. I own an ev and a diesel 'ute' so I live in both worlds at the moment, and cannot wait to test drive a Shark next month ( a plug in hybrid - oh well, better than nothing I suppose, as my diesel bill each month is over $300).
@@TerryHickey-xt4mf The rest of the world isn't heading to EV's. Sales in Europe have flattened. It's an infrastructure problem, that cannot be resolved in a few years. It will take decades. There is no demise of fossil fuels. There is so much misinformation being banded around. Come to the UK and look at the proportion of ICE versus EV's. You will be shocked.
Yep! They are following the anti-EV narrative started in the USA only moreso. Japan is built on perfecting a process developing relationships rather disruption and change. They're also afraid of what will happen to unemployment if they make the changes, not to mention the cozy relationship their car companies have with big oil. They are comfortable with all of the hookups they've cultivated over decades. Hard to even think about slowing that flywheel.
In Guangdong, diesel cars can't be sold new for a good few years now, and if you already own a diesel car, your only choice is to drive until it dies as it can't be sold on the second hand market either. I live in Zhuhai, all city buses are electric and EVs are omnipresent including all taxis/Ubers, I think the NEV ratio is much higher than 10% in this city. Zhuhai traffic is particularly quiet, only wheel friction can be heard most of the time, and that's a stark contrast to Hong Kong or Macau (neighboring cities) where traffic stinks and crushes you with noise.
China is doing this to get rid of smog and to reduce reliance on imported oil that could be blockaded by US (they have coal for now but these reserves are starting to reduce and they do not want to rely on the 5 eyes country Australia for coal). Future seems to be nuclear
Noise pollution is a real environmental issue and another reason that EVs will dominate transportation.
Great info. Thanks
Moore's law completely misstated.
If you ban something by government fiat what do you expect to happen to sales? ....
( except that in the case of drugs and marijuana it only created a blackmarket and by driving the price of legal drugs eg tobacco too high it not only created an illicit trade but triggered an underworld trade war with hundreds of legal tobacco shops being torched (burnt down) - google it.
Same thing happened with alcohol prohibition in the US , it made the mafia.
What are econuts going to do when there is no tar to repair the roads (another well publicised issue in Victoria with potholes destroying some cars) and pharmaceuticals, chemicals, fuel for emergency helicopters, fertiliser for your food and long haul trucks etc etc etc.
Gloating over the destruction of industry and life support systems to satisfy misguided doomongers like Greta is tragic.
I am now contemplating buying EV or ICE cars & I trend towards former as I can get abundant of free (well almost if sunny day always) sunlight or A$90 to fill my tank up every fortnight towards a Japanese car. Latter doesn’t make sense
One small correction, China's reduced industrial oil demand isn't about slow growth; instead, the Chinese government is pushing for the industry to electrify, to replace whenever possible the use of fossil fuels with electricity. It's, thus, a structural and likely permanent change, as opposed to something temporary that could be reversed if or when China's industry improves.
Moore's law is about semi-conductors not pricing of commodities.
It's Wrights Law, that I think he means. As I recall this states that cost of goods produced, falls by one third with each doubling of total produced.
@@garethrobinson2275 I think that's the law he meant but it too would have been incorrect. Also, Wright's Law is a cumulative doubling of production results in a consistent reduction or cost, not a specific reduction in cost - it depends on the industry. Again, this doesn't apply to economies of scale in commodities, especially mature ones.
@machoopichoo2 Batteries are not a mature technology, at least not EV batteries. The fall in cost has been and continues to be consistent and highly significant. Bye-bye gas cars!
@@garethrobinson2275 Yes, batteries very much fall under Wright's law because they are a manufactured product. Gas/petrol really doesn't, as it's a commodity (admittedly technology like fracking impacts it). Economies of scale apply but not Wright's Law.
Now, I am not sure what would signify EV batteries being "mature." One could argue they are mature, given LFP surpassing NMC. Regardless, they are on a steep costs decline curve and you are correct, this spells the inevitable doom of ICE for transport.
Baaahha
Ya he is full of shit
It also blows me away that people think BMW, Mercedes, Audi etc are "Luxury vehicles". What's luxury about a vehicle which are endless money pits for repair after repair? I'm glad that China has figured that out and not buying those rolling pieces of junk which just help mechanics retire early.
So an ev is not junk smh
@@jermaineogarro2124 EV is the future and China is the leader.
Its a pity that the world authority on reliability does not back u up
JD Power rates EV's as more unreliable , and certainly more expensive to
repair, especially after a collision ,they are written off. Hence the much
higher insurance premium.
BTW , sams numbers are way off china only uses 13% of world oil , and
the majority of that is for other things, fuel is probably less than 10%
U have the plastics industry, paint, materials etc . a very small % is also used
in oil powered electric stations
They are luxury people’s vehicles 😅
Future luxury is software not fancy interiors.
EVs accounted for 72% of new car registrations in HK in the first nine months of 2024. Around 40,000 new cars are sold in HK a year
I'm hoping the prices for EV's will drop further. In Holland prices are extremely high. It's much cheaper to keep your ICE vehicle running until it falls apart.
Yep... For now. But EV prices are falling fast just ask Tony Seba
Less dependence on oil means one can still sleep even if conflicts erupt in the Middle East. In the past, rising oil prices was very painful for Chinese consumers.
This is a good development. Petroleum should be treated as strategic material for producing products such as plastics. It should not be burnt as fuel.
there is many elements of crude oil , fuel and diesel is one of them , using less of it doesn’t mean less crude drilled. just means the fuel will be stock piled while the other elements still required are used , this could reduce fuel prices , rather than increase them
why is that ?
that will still be needed for many uses even if less for personal transport
Actually, just about everything that can be made from oil can be made from other sources. We even already have the tech, patent-free (as the patents have already ended), due to all the research on it done in the 70s (the oil crisis when middle east countries threatened to permanently stop selling oil to the US and its allies). It's just a matter on investing more on figuring how to ramp up production and reduce costs, as that part of the research didn't get done because the crisis ended.
BTW, the whole reason we use oil for a lot of those things is that we need the oil for fuel anyway, so it's getting extracted and refined whether we use the non-fuel parts of it or not; to put it another way, fuel is subsidizing all other oil usages. Remove fuel from the equation, and extracting oil for those other things might not be economically feasible anymore.
@@exploringsydneyandbeyond9059 no. You can only stock pile a tiny tiny percentage of fuel.
Wrights law, not Moores law my man
yep, I think you're right about that.... but Sam rarely knows what he's talking about. "Moore's law might never be wrong but Sam's law is the direct inverse of Moore's law. .... and he didn't even apply Wright's law correctly
Moore's Law is the observation that the number of transistors on an integrated circuit will double every two years with minimal rise in cost. Intel co-founder Gordon Moore predicted a doubling of transistors every year for the next 10 years in his original paper published in 1965.
Wright's Law is a phenomenon that predicts that the cost of a technology will decrease by a constant percentage each time its global production doubles. The law is named after Theodore Wright, a US engineer who first observed it in the 1930s
@@RoverIACI’d have to disagree with you that Sam rarely knows what he’s talking about when it comes to EV’s. Though I disagree with him on American politics, I find him to be quite astute.
Writes law, if I recall correctly, has to do with the cost prediction. When a product manufacture cumulatively doubles production costs savings are typically on the order of 20%.
Conversely, if a product were to scale down, the same rules apply but in reverse, making cost of goods sold more expensive to the manufacturer.
Moore‘s law, is a law of compute, to which I’m less familiar.
Sam is right (or Wright, ha!) even when he gets it wrong. We know his bigger meaning. I've criticized him occasionally for missing a fact or data point here or there. But in the broad strokes, he's dead on right... or Wright.
Sam has been wrong about virtually everything....name something he has predicted that has come true.and I'll give you a dozen mad things he has said that didn't.
Go back to any old video from a few years ago and what his predictions....all wrong..😅
@@grantbuttenshaw I find it strange that you still watch his videos even from few years ago , knowing that he is wrong most of the time.
Gas will first get cheaper as there is a glut. Then many refineries will stop making gasoline OR will have to raise the price of each gallon to make their needed profit.
Then gas stations stop getting as much business and start closing or not carrying gas.
The effect will be a huge jump in the price of gas as well as it being harder to find. This will cause even more consumers to buy EVs..... rinse and repeat.
YEP! 100%
Petrochemicals are still needed for making plastic parts & road construction ........
If these people predicting the exact path forward were right 55% of the time, they would be immensely wealthy. Don’t express too much confidence based upon static measures and changing models.
I think range of 500 km+ (310+ miles) is a tipping point for EV. Once industry crosses that, EV will become default choice and ICE become a niche choice. I am from India and we will see same changes as China. My home has 10 kwh solar power plant and generates lots of surplus to power my car usage.
I visited Spiti valley Leh Srinagar etc last year, an EV going up and down those mountains would be awesome…. If you added some weight (water) at the top and dumped it at the bottom, you could just about do a round trip for very little??
My gasoline vehicle has a range of 265 mi.
Plenty of EVs that already have that range...and simply put...most people don't need anywhere near that range. EVs have already reached a tipping point. They're 20% of this year's New Vehicle sales Globally. Solar is being put up massively in Global numbers and Battery Storage will remove most of the issues with transmission.
@@davidc2838 Agree most people don't need that range, but crossing that range figure opens up a mental barrier that stops us from making EV default choice. Now that mental barrier is gone, people will adopt more swiftly.
Have you researched what Moore's Law reaaly is , one tip it as absolutely not nothing to do with the cost of the petrol or anything related , "Moore's law is the observation that the number of transistors in an integrated circuit (IC) doubles about every two years."
I used to have a Saudi royal prince as a pen friend. I bought an EV and he doesn't write any more 😂
Hey Viking, Moore's Law is every 18-24 months compute power doubles. Wright's Law is every doubling of production there is industry specific % reduction in cost. Auto is 20%.
No one's, including the amount of Oil that we use, in oil changes in ICEngins.😮 Mind you some gets resikeled then burnt A.
Sam doesn't really understand American politics. Hell, we Americans don't either. There's nothing remotely rational about it. It's good he's our sensible Aussie friend and advisor. US oil majors don't even want to drill baby drill. They have overcapacity and know global demand will drop. They want to slow EV adoption to protect their prices for a few more years until the old execs retire and cash in. But at some tipping point they'll announce, hey, we're energy companies, and they'll pivot to renewables, looking all saintly and such. It's the American Two-Step. It's our crazy hypocritical way. But once we get it right, watch out!
The American auto industry is gas based.
They already are shifting over to renewables. I think that is why Shell went public; so they could make money off a dying business and move investments to solar. They have some of the biggest solar farms in the world now.
Solar doesn't produce enough energy the best chance you have is nuclear. Also china makes most of the solar panels and lithium batteries. How would this work with the heavy tariffs that trump wants?@sd70cal
Venezuela and Canada have plenty of natural gas and oil. The U.S has a huge amount of coal they could burn in clean coal power plants. It doesn't make sense for the U.S to go electric and solar on a mass scale @sd70cal
@@ganymedekaramazenes9273The USA transportation business WAS “horse based” before it became petrol based. It is BECOMING EV based. No stopping it.
Current global EV transport is already 1,7 millions of barrels per day less!
So that will go fast when uptake expands.
In Malaysia, crude is pumping out in lesser QTY by the months, peak could have passed.
Shell and BP are already scrambling to set up chargers in Germany. I actually got their charging cards because the prices they offer (especially BP through their Aral brand) are pretty good, and most chargers they set up are 500 kW chargers, on par with Tesla. I think ICE will be obsolete a lot faster than most people think. This spells doom for the German and Japanese car industries who f...d around and are about to find out. They are now trying to catch up and I hope for Germany and the German economy that they will be successful.
I remember the beginning of your videos, your predictions then.
I kept pointing out you were underestimating...
And we are now.
Lots of ways to help. Live in walkable city & neighborhoods, cycle, walk, scooter , transit. Try to arrange as much of you life in Europe’s idea of 15 min cities. If you can life car lite (one car) do it.
If you want to support your local economy like most of you want to. Stop spending on gas. Instead of sending it to Saudi Arabia. Buy an EV and every penny saved stays in our country and locally.
The more renewables in your country less money exported. No one will invade your country to steal your wind or sunshine.
Well, that depends on how you generate your electricity to charge your EV. If you import the oil, coal or gas (or uranium for that matter!!!) for power generation then you're still dependent on other countries. Bring on the renewables!
@frostcb2 most of the rare elements produced for EV batteries come from outside the US. Also with the new administration, we will be energy independent as before..
The concept of ev is absurd to sit for hours at a charging station waiting is nonsense and the cost to charge is more expensive than gas. Not to mention the damage to the planet the manufacture of the ev have. So is ev really the answer. And let's not forget the decreased performance in the cold.
@@thunderbird0428I can’t remember sitting at a charger for hours, maybe you do, but you do you!
Our main car was a Fusion plug in hybrid and 2nd was an 2012 Ford Escape. The Escape got to the point where it was beyond it's useful life so we traded it in and got a Mustang Mach-e. That was almost a month ago and we haven't purchased any gas since as I've only driven the Fusion on rare occasions and have been driving the Mustang most of the time. The point being is most families will find they'll leave the gas guzzler home and take the EV when it's available as I expect families to have both types for decades to come.
I spent a couple of weeks in London earlier this yeat, and there are many electric buses and taxis, Oh and more EVs than I expected (Something to do with the ULEZ - Ultra-low emissions zone) that covers greater London). I live in the East Midlands and I'd guess aroind 20% of cars are EVs and quite a few Hybrids too.
And as a result the air is cleaner and the streets quieter.
Why will there be Global job losses with EV adoption. EV's are so Damn efficient in everything. Just think, it takes an army of mechanics to keep an ICE car on the road. Regular Oil changes, Regular Maintenance, Oil Drilling, Oil Exploration, Pipelines, Pipeline Maintenance, Pipeline Pumping Stations, Gas Stations, Gas Station Attendants, Super Tankers, Arctic Drilling, Offshore Drilling, ect ect ect. All of this will be gone or mostly gone when EV adoption occurs. In the Oil Industry they have a saying "Chaos equals Cash". There is a lot of Chaos keeping ICE vehicles on the road. EV's are the future...
Except mining of the minerals has become incredibly inefficient.
Copper for instance used to be up to 90% pure coming out of the mines, now it can be as low as 1% coming out of the mines. See Professor Simon Michaux (Geologist and mining expert). He explains it in great detail.
The mining still requires most of what you mentioned (as part of the distribution infrastructure) for the minerals "Oil Drilling, Oil Exploration, Pipelines, Pipeline Maintenance, Pipeline Pumping Stations, Gas Stations, , Super Tankers, Arctic Drilling, Offshore Drilling, ect ect ect."
All still needed even with EV adoption.
In addition its also been calculated that to mine the minerals for a full transition will take a 1,000 years. (British and US Geological survey)
The only place in the chain that is changing beyond recognition in the manner that you point out is point of use, end users. Manufacturing has of course changed, but that's nothing new.
Its more likely that we run out of the raw materials, and that is what will determine where the industry goes.
Sorry to be a downer, but that's the reality. We will all be worse off, its actually quite depressing if everyone doesn't get their heads round it and come up with solutions.
EV`s is the future but the future is not now... Now EV`s is horrible because the battery technology is bad. EV batteries for example HAVE TO be heated to warmer the +0C to be able to charge at all (colder then that and the battery is ruined if it is charged). EV`s is a bad solution to a problem that only exist in large cities. Co2 is not pollution and global warming is a scam, even if it was not a scam highet temperatures and more Co2 is only beneficial to life on earth..
Do you think recycling industry is going to improve a lot
@@OMGAnotherdayi can tell u we die faster if we keep using ICE for 30 years more. what you said is trying to exaggerate a problem over tons of advantages from using EVs sooner than later. people like you never could create a better future for mankind and yes you are a loser downer.
luckily the electric grid requires equally large number of people to exist, and the even more regular other repeair and maintenance on the ev-s are also will keep the people in their jobs. similarly all the mining and other stuff. evs will reduce jobs around zero percent.
I just charted US EIA data for barrels of oil exported to China monthly from 2018 to Sept 2024. I don't see any drop off trend. A couple spikes in 2022 and 2023, but generally averaging a bit over 100,000 barrels per month.
2021, not 2022.
EV cars are being 'written off' after minor accidents?🤔
Tesla's crash far less often than non Tesla's
I've been thinking for a while that when the oil industry goes into decline, production costs will start rising. A lot of oil infrastructure (huge oil tanker ships, giant refineries, massive fleets of distribution transport, huge gas station networks) will become white elephants. Much of that stuff has fixed maintenance costs, which will be spread over a shrinking customer base. So yeah, we could see prices rise as demand falls.
Fuel is not cheap and never has been.
Disagree on part of this. The gas stations will slowly transition to EV gas hybrids. Gas cost will go up, but not by a ton.
Gas stations can serve a dozen customers in 5 minutes. That's why they can afford to occupy prime commercial real estate, and offer facilities.
They don't want someone wasting that valuable space for an hour. That's why they are usually on cheap land- at the back of empty parking lots, no facilities, shelter etc.
Your kidding me, right? Oil will be in use for many many many years to come.
Sure. But the demand for oil used in transport is waning
Chemical (non-fuel) use of oil for plastics, cosmetics, lubrication are just a _drop_ compared to the oil used for fuel. Globally about 100-million barrels of oil a day for fuel energy -- you could pave a multi-lane plastic highway across N America with a few days' worth of that!
Without the energy component, fossil fuel companies will be just a shell of their former selves. They will be restructured into "fossil chemicals" industry and providers of long chain hydrocarbons. They will operate vastly differently than they do today. And the world will be a better place.
So it really comes down to can China more easily and economically make electricity vs obtaining oil? Their already making lots of EV's so this is certainly plausible.
In the COP21 in Paris on November 2015, most countries including USA agreed to take actions to fight climate change and transit to clean energies for the upcoming years. One year later Trump was elected for the first time and abandoned de agreements saying that his government would not risk their economy and as a consequence, European countries lower their pace to reach the climate targets, but China did the complete oposite thing and accelerated their rhythm which gave them years of advantage to build the clean energy industry they have today and reaching their climate goals 6 years before the initial target.
Once again, China is being punished for being wise, consistent, and responsible. Because it makes other countries look bad.
Clean energy policy? How many coal fired power stations are they building??
Is it just me being cynical, or are oil companies installing EV chargers in the UK to slow down EV adoption by charging very high prices per kWh? I’ve noticed that independent chargers like Tesla are normally half the price as those owned by petrochemical companies.
Thanks Sam! Love your works & daily updates👍. God bless your boys & lovely wife.
While China will be benefiting the most from EV adoption (sans Norway), the U.S. will be much slower to adopt EV’s at the same rate because of two things. One; America already produces more oil than it needs and two; new refineries will be built or converted to take up the light crude we produce masking the global effects of any massive instabilities in the oil market; of course that assumes a government push to enhance those things. 🥶
Don’t get me wrong an EV’s incredible efficiency and continual improvement spell the end of the “ice age” (what a pun), but it will happen at a glacial pace! 😝
Slower than perhaps any other western country except Britain.
Petroleum is used in plastics, fertilizer, and most things we use in the modern world. There will still be a huge market for petroleum in the foreseeable future.
Hi this was the craziness of pushing up prices.
The ill educated morons, did not see that it's use is so wide spread that vilifying it was a very bad idea!
So much so that the average Joe in the USA voted them out of office, thuis the harsh but true words.
When the economy is crashing and you cant work out why, maybe look back upon the decisions you made.
Luckily it is all reversible.
Take care M
You are correct! As a matter of fact, petroleum is too precious to be burnt! Having said this, the proportion of oil going to the chemical industry is only about 10% of the total.
Little note: no oil... or very little... is used to manufacture fertilizer... that industry uses natural gas, rather.
50% of all oil production is used by land transport.
Also, plastics are used on a myriad of applications. Plastics are not evil per se, but they do need careful disposal or, better, meaningful, viable reutilization.
Petroleum is an amazing energy source, and humanity has spent gigantillions of dollars over the last century in infrastructure, r&d, improvements. It would be unwise to abruptly end its usage.
@@brunesi Thankfully capitalism doesn't care for the losers, so oil - which can never compete in energy price with renewables - will get wiped, and likely earlier than most people expect.
Have you heard about what is happening with electricity generation in Pakistan? The utility companies have a deal with the government to supply electricity from gas plants, a deal that was supposed to lock natural gas demand in place - but since they can't prevent individual people from importing solar panels and batteries, and using those to go off-grid, the electricity utilities already lost about a third of their market to rooftop solar, and it's accelerating; in a few years Pakistan might stop using natural gas for energy, *despite* the government wishes, due to market forces, which will turn all the equipment used to import that natural gas and generate electricity from it into stranded assets likely to be sold for scrap.
I am so excited about your show. Please slow down a little bit. When I was in engineering school we got a zero if we did not add units to the numbers. Please add relative information with numbers like 5% or 10% in order to bolster clarity. Respectively yours, The Electric Donkey
Remember demolition man movie the fuel injected cars have become a relic in the future
nothing wrong with relics
I just want the 3 seashells.......
Air quality is the main incentive.
If you look to Norway. The gas prices had gone down. They also use to have a sale every weekend.
The EV sales in Norway is now at 93,6%. Only 0,6% pure gasoline cars are sold. 2,1% pure diesel, and 3,7% hybrids (with or without a plug).
diesel is best
Norway produces a massive amount of OIL (Gas). So they can charge whatever they want. Most countries in Europe and other places cannot. As EV's begin to dominate, the gas prices will go up.
What powers the machinery that digs up the battery components? How much pollution is given off by ev production?
Oil is still required for the industry. An electric motor is far more easy to maintain than a combustion motor. No more cheating from car mechanics.
True but the problem then gets passed to Electronic engineers and software engineers 🫣🙄
You can also bin all exhaust systems most gearboxes .. most conventional poppet valve piston engines .. reduce breaking systems. fuel metering and ignition systems.
@@clivestainlesssteelwomble7665 EV hit more miles with far more less maintenance. EV has a longer life too. Their performance are excellent. Combustions are definitely obsolete. I have experience with more than 100 car mechanics. Most of these dudes are criminals. Thieves.
well, another tipping point could be the availability of electricity in some places. Countries like India are not going electric for decades to come
you'd be surprised at how fast things get adapted once it makes finacial sense. So many developing countries never had landline phones and went directly to cellular phone. As solar and wind make electric production cheaper than coal, why wouldn't they go directly ?
...experts BELIEVE...experts BELIEVE... so many times said in this video
Yep. Experts. You should try it
My expert down the pub ..is not an expert
Reliable expert can claim only, not believe. We believe in something that we are not sure of, or have no proof of it.
him being the "top expert"...on EVs......yep...we know.....cheers.
@@colinstanley8678 how do you become and expert ? I want to be one too ... can't be that hard ... they seem to be everywhere
The issue is that United States is there is narrow focus on more oil "drill, baby drill," that you don't ever really hear much talk about reducing consumption.
The world needs INEXPENSIVE vehicles in order to put oil out of business.
In Thailand Chinese EV"s retail for under 20k usd. Very nice suv style with 8 year warranty!
Spoken like a pathetic liberal tree hugger... Hey genius when you learn to read and change channels,, you will find out how toxic it is to mine lithium.. or my favorite how much your pile of junk is worth in 5 years.. go ahead buy a nice old EV,, the day you understand energy density,, you will find out how fast that is worthless and less kilometers..
More and more are coming every year.
With that many EV's on the road you'd think they come up with a new way to put out EV car fires, maybe some kind of foam the incapsulates the whole car. A new line of firetrucks may be in our future or maybe a built in system that turns the car into cannoli like on that Stallone/Bullock movie.
You are right- as EVs take over, getting ICE fuels will get more difficult and expensive. Eventually it won't be worth it.
Porsche’s research into efuels will pay off when the cost will match retail fuel prices.
There will still be a small percentage of collectible ICE vehicles in garages and the only available fuel will be the $5-10/L e-fuel
@@DCfocalsynthetic fuels are massively less efficient than using the electricity directly.
Dream on mate ... wont happen in my lifetime
@@HappyClapper63 It’s ALREADY happening.
@@JohnSmith-x3y8h it isn’t about efficiency. It is about availability and socially being acceptable alternative to Dino juice from the ground. These collectible ICE cars are worth protecting and driving still instead of being stuck in a museum.
Less demand means lower prices not higher mainly because the oil price is dropping
and china moves ever closer to energy independence while west becomes ever more dependent on oil trade
Not correct.
Coal and Uranium are also mined, refined and sourced from somewhere. There is no independence of any sort.
Let's say you are from Saudi Arabia and nobody buys oil from you, what do you think they will be able to buy from you. Stupid.
So what its been that way for decades and the sky has not fallen in
@@HappyClapper63 Ok, if you say so. Stupid. You know when a man is hungry he is ready for anything, but literally.
How many coal power plants did china build this year 250? There’s a trade off
Yep and where do they get their coal? The politicians screw us by allowing all our coal to be exported for cheap energy overseas, while our prices go through the roof and the grid becomes more unreliable.
BYD's PHEV is severely underrated. They are much cheaper than pure EVs, run on electricity for daily commute with a home charger and no range anxiety for long trips.
True. Actually PHEVs and EREVs are best selling in China, but Viking never says this. For example Aito brand or Li auto, both sells only EREVs.
Battery technology is advancing rapidly, yearly. Hybrids, PHEVs, are a stopgap. Legacy automakers will bet on that, it's easier for them, but it's just another dead end.
@@dylanthomas12321 Really ... wake me up when I can charge EV in same amount of time it takes to fill my tank
what is this range anxiety? I drive around, car gets low on charge, I go to a charger and top up. It's easy. Did 300 miles one day last week stopped for 9 minutes.
You can keep your EV battery topped up while it is sitting idle at home or your workplace.
You can't do that with an ICE vehicle.
And the Chinese now have production batteries that can charge several hundred km in 5-10 minutes, with better coming next year.
Great to see Sam. Would be great to see coverage on Asian and African countries that are moving towards green energy and EVs - fossil fuel companies are trying to prevent these markets from going green and they’re the markets that have lots of sun and should never be buying oil from other countries.
How is Trump going to react to this? His motto to oil is 'Drill baby Drill'. This says a lot about his attitude to the environment.
Plenty like him at our old folks home.. except they are only in charge of the TV controller
@@caterthun4853 I wouldn't let Trump be in charge of the remote control tv.
I would think less demand in China would cause more supply in the rest of the world driving prices down. Trump promised to increase supply which should lower prices even more.
So tell me all about how good mining the earth for lithium is, not to mention what happens with old solar panels? Not exactly biodegradable are they?
I hope Musk can drag him out of that. In fact, it seems Big Oil refused to fund his campaign and Trump is looking for vengeance. Without estranging his oil-crazy Rep backers, so it is a tightrope, but there's a shift - and Musk is part of it.
Very informative video.
Highly advanced and affordable EVs are already entering the market, and in 3-5 years, choosing a new EV over a used ICE car-which is essentially a dinosaur-will be a no-brainer.
What’s the resale value of a 3-5-year-old smartphone today? Almost nothing.
The same thing will happen with ICE cars. Once people realize this, that’s it-ICE is over. No sales, nothing, worldwide.
darn, I have just made almost the same comment.
Great analogy on the smart phones
That's a very silly analogy. A smart phone and a car may be made of mostly the same materials, and made in factories. But that's where the similarity stops. One can easily replace a lost or broken phone within hours, with little disruption to ones life, let alone the price £300 v £30,000!
try doing that with a car. EV or not!
@@OMGAnotherday You’re trying to explain why people kept buying feature phones even after affordable smartphones became available.
You’re right-because throwing £300 down the drain is easy and simple, and you can always buy a smartphone anytime.
But throwing £30,000 down the drain is a completely different story. You won’t be able to sell your used ICE car to anyone, and you’ll have to keep driving it yourself for 20 years just to avoid losing all that money.
And maintaining it will cause more trouble than keeping a horse on your apartment balcony today.
Once you realize that, you won’t buy a new ICE car NOW, even if there are still plenty of used ICE cars on the road.
You are assuming that the electricity grid will be ready for this. It won’t be
Wait, i thought demand for oil sent prices up? Seems either way the price goes up and the man in the street is fecked
These stories I find very interesting please keep reporting stories about the rate of change around the world.
So I am not sure if gasoline or diesel will be more expensive, if demand will decrease … usually means that gasoline will be cheaper, neoclassic economic theory, demand and supply … why cannot current gasolin stations sell electricity as well? It might be another turn to this … meaning gasoline will be cheaper, not more expensive!? Please comment why not!
That is logical based on historical events.... Companies need the price to be around $70 a barrel
It will get cheaper in the short term but then quickly get more expensive as under utilized assets put a bigger overhead on every unit of oil remaining.
Yes under 70 bucks a barrel and the oil Riggs stop drilling.@@13thbiosphere
The oil company have reduced demand on purpose to keep the prices up.
Oil will always be used, not it current quantity. All those war destruction machineries will always use some of it as qty to power ratio. Mayb, cheap oil around the corner.
The world's food production is reliant on oil whether being produced, shipped and distributed. We don't have replacement machines and we can barely afford to replace with existing technology. It will probably take twenty Years to complete the change if it's affordable.
Electric farming machines are already used to produce food. They have enough battery storage for 12 hours/day. Thangs change.
Actually farming is going to change a lot in the coming decades. There are a lot of R&D going on with robotics and electrification at the center of the research. When earlier the machines got bigger and bigger to limit the cost of labour, the introduction of robots have made size a secondary factor. For a lot of work smaller are more cost effective. It's more like overgrown robotic lawnmovers but with other tools.
@ and I see drones are being used with GPS to spray crops. No heavy machinery damaging the soil.
@@tilapiadave3234 No! What @iscadean wrote is perfectly true! There are already electric farming equipment. I live in the boonies in central France, and one of my neighbors has bought an electric tractor. I haven't asked him how long his battery lasts... but I see him use it pretty much from dawn to dusk... and I shall ask him, it's an interesting question. Ok, it's the first and only one in the region... electrification of farming is still a nascent trend... and yes, the percentage of electric-farming machines is still very low... I have found no statistics, but I take little risk to say that it is inferior to 1 %. BUT the trend has started... and what @iscqdean wrote is NO lie, but perfectly true!
@ @ try this. ua-cam.com/video/u-i08DJNYTY/v-deo.htmlsi=kQxj85nV_4lFMHgI. There’s more. Just try to find stuff. Or bury your head in the sand. You’re a denier. I get it. But try seeking out information. There some interesting stuff going on. Electric boats, electric planes, electric cars, trucks and buses. It happening around the world.
You might want to look up what Moore's Law actually says.
Sam, the large oil and petroleum companies cannot make the same money selling electricity. For a start, they don’t control the sun and wind like they do with oil and gas. Secondly electricity consumers in many countries can produce most of their own energy on rooftops and store it in their own batteries.
There is no pathway for monopolies in the new energy economy. Except in possibly solar panel production or battery production. But the margins are very low and manufacturers don’t get much if any money in the selling of electrons from their solar panels and batteries.
Tesla represents the new energy model with the highest potential for profit.
Big oil companies like Shell will never get anywhere near Tesla and the Chinese batttery and car makers.
It’s over for Shell and BP.
Don't be silly. There are plenty of places for the LARGE DOLLAR Investments from BIG OIL to take parts of markets, especially since many Automakers failed to create the infrastructure. Tesla has done well...but plenty of room for BIG OIL to change and supply ENERGY in a different format.
Petrol and diesel will for the foreseeable future become cheaper as there is an oil glut right now. This also helps slow the move to EVs as people wait for EVs to become affordable. Its a slow transition, the end is purely electric simply due to future economics of cheap EV and running costs.
Most of the electricity in China comes from coal power, which accounted for 62% of electricity generation in 2021 and is a big part of greenhouse gas emissions by China
But it changing. 37% renewables in ten years? 66% in another ten years. 100% in another ten years. So about 2040. It’s coming. Don’t whine about how it is? Look forward. They are.
They built a lot of coal plants for the base load. Solar and wind do have enormous scale as well but both need the coal plants to make sure the power grid is stable. Eliminating coal completely is just not technically feasible at this point…
Try and keep up
They have to make your goods somehow
@@MrGuitar1975 rubbish. Battery storage evens out peaks and troughs. The biggest producer of battery storage? China. Coal was used because they have lots of it buy it expensive to extract, expensive to transport and expensive to burn. They’re closing coal fired power stations and replacing with renewables. FFS they produce the world’s solar panels.
Also the statement gas is going up is incorrect gas prices are going down we got a new sheriff in town and they are determined to reduce the price of oil remember to make batteries huge machines have to refine 25 tons of rock just to get enough raw material to make one car battery also in the process to refine all the metals in the car requires a lot of petroleum so regardless of electric cars we still need petroleum to make them and I just don't see a lot of electric cars in my travels across the United States The cost of petroleum because we are in an oil-based economy when this goes down it brings the price of everything down even electric cars.
Economies of scale have already been built. At least initially oil should go down as there will be an oversupply due to lack of demand.
While you may well be correct as to the price of raw oil (not even sure, as it is a very complex and political market), the costs of refining and distribution will go up with decreasing volumes.
well currently EV prices are going down due over supply
@@HappyClapper63 No, they are going down primarily due to ever cheaper manufacturing costs.
Look, Tesla has recently GROWN substantially their automotive gross margin, to pretty much industry record level, WHILE decreasing prices at the same time. How could that be possible, if manufacturing costs were not going down rapidly?
@@HappyClapper63😂😂😂😂😂 you mean lack of demand. Economics not a strong point then
@@HappyClapper63 Prices in EVs are going down due to economies of scale. Demand is high.
In Germany the prices for EVs are still insanely high. It is hard to justify paying 40k € for a small car when ICE cars are available for 20k.
Waiting is the smartest move currently.
I believe most of the cost of fuel is the artificially high cost of crude oil. When oil crashes to $25 per barrel (so sayeth Tony Seba), pump prices should still be lower, not higher.
Have a look at the oil price chart. Looks to me like a substantial fall is in the offing.
Don't you need oil to make all of the plastics in your EVs?
Yes, but only around 5%.
@JohnSmith-x3y8h only 5%? Where did that statiscic from? What is used to make all of the body panels, wire insulation, sound deadening, carpets, glues, sealants, battery housings, laminate glass layer, computer screens, exterior and interior light covers, tyres, cooling and brake hoses, brake pads, non leather interior materials, dash, LED light bulbs, computer housings & components, buttons, handles, etc?
What do you use to ship and fly all of those items and cars around the planet?
@ Go see for yourself instead of clinging to delusional beliefs.
@JohnSmith-x3y8h I just see so much plastic in them. It's hardly delusional to know that they're shipped around using fossil fuels, it's a fact.
Glory!!! After so much struggles I now own a new house with an income of $330,000.00 every month God has kept to his words, my family is happy again everything is finally falling into place.
That's awesome!!! I know nothing about investment and I'm kind on getting started. What are your strategies?
As a beginner, it's essential for you to have a mentor to keep you accountable. I'm guided by a widely known crypto professional.
Thanks to mrs Melissa Jonas Richard.
I'm surprised that this same name is being mentioned here, I stumbled upon one of his clients testimonies on CNBC news last week.
I know Melissa Jonas Richard, and I have also had success...
Petrol (gas) is cheaper than bottled water.
There are millions of old ICE cars on the roads. They will be buying gas for years to come -- clearly in declining amounts but big oil has time to make the transition.
All fake facts ... ICE not going anywhere anytime soon
Nope. The rate of increase of EVs is massive. Plus Battery Storage is ramping up massively too. ICE manufacturers will collapse rapidly...which means that New Vehicle Sales of ICE vehicles will collapse even more quickly. That means that no-one will want to buy used ICE vehicles. The Fleet of vehicles that are New Vehicles are the ones driven the most. Taxis, Delivery, Etc. and they are all going EVs. People will mothball their older ICE vehicles.
Yet a Euro3 Engine running Bi-Fuel Diesel is Cleaner than Petrol. Diesel+LPG. Far cleaner Than Euro4,5 AdBlue+Diesel.
The irony is that Australia (in Victoria) still has the highest electricty rates in the world, despite Govt pushing solar...
Thats all we want. Cheaper electricity from whatever viable and feasible..
not despite pushing solar, because.
@@thorin1045 Nope. Being in the pockets of BIG OIL and BIG GAS. Politicians causing this.
Higher than the UK?
'Ice is finished'? Are you overlooking the surge in PHEVs? In China, PHEVs now make up some 60% of NEV sales and they definitely include a ICE. They may not get used much (daily commute) but are going to be around for a long time even as ICE only vehicle sales decline.
I would think the opposite. I think gas (petrol) prices would drop, due to the competition by the EV sector. With fuel no longer having the "monopoly" on energy for transportation, it would force them to reduce prices, or, their obsolescence becomes a "self fulfilling prophecy". If they want to remain a major player in energy for private transportation, they need to remain cost effective enough, to keep people from transitioning to EV's.
exactly ... saudi's have plenty of scope to drop prices and still make money
@@HappyClapper63 Not everyone does. They want HIGHER prices.
Nope. They will limit the amount of gasoline / diesel produced through limited refineries. OIL doesn't have to be drilled...it can be left in the ground and taken out more slowly.
Greetings from Texas, I keep seeing brand new gas stations being built & keep wondering how long these w/b profitable. Who is making these decisions?
Lots of Gas Stations are being shut down. More than are being Built. There's companies like Buckey's that are building "Attractions" that are more about the Food and Shopping than the Gasoline. They will do well for a decade or so...but everntually will lose business as less and less people need gasoline / Diesel.
I just went on a trip from my home in Georgia up to Canada and back a 4,000 mi trip I think I saw one Tesla on my trip.
it's going to be a while before the gas prices are going to be affected by electric cars.
Souh Dakota is the same way, but it's not surprising in a farming community. You'd have to visit California or somewhere like Austin Texas to see more of them. Maybe other areas might have an uptick in adoption now that space Karen has gone fully RW nutter.
UK has also seen declines in petrol and diesels sales due to the uptake of EVs.
But gas prices and EV sales are not directly linked. Gas prices are governed by the cartel called OPEC and is based on how they control the market release of their product - like diamonds. EVs are being made by one major global producer and China (500,000 sold last month!)will flood the market to ensure dominance using price to sway consumers into buying. World grids can cope with the increase in electricity by using renewables to wean the world off fossil fuels. What has OPEC got? Only price using supply in a reducing demand situation. But by doing so, they reduce their income. Eventually, the market will crash and prices will go up and a tipping point reached. It’s a battle between electricity and fossil fuels not EVs and petrol. Electricity is getting cheaper every day. Fossil fuels are going up.
You have certainly not been looking attentively. Last August, we drove from southern France to our home in central France, a 400 mile trip. The kids (well.. the grand-kids actually) break the highway boredom by counting Teslas (we were deiving in one!), just about the only easily recognizable brand by 5 and 7 yo kids. We counted 169 Teslas in just 400 miles!!!
In Norway, but also in the Netherlands, gas stations have already started closing because of dwindling business. And the rate of change is only increasing!
Really. The GTA area has thousands of them. Every other car was a Tesla last year I was there.
Plus, you should really go to California. Unreal the amount of EVs in general.
It's The Economy of Scale tho, not Moore's Law. Moore's Law is to do with transistor manufacturing technology
EVs are dead, time to move on. Back to ICE.
Hmmm... decrease in demand usually means lower prices. But, oil production will be adjusted to keep prices as stable (and profitable) as possible. It's the way it has always been. They're still building gas stations in the US. We've had 4 new gas stations (2 Murphys and 2 Circle Ks) in the last year in the small town where I live. I was hoping some of these would offer EV charging, but haven't seen that yet.
My electricity provider here in Australia is Ampol a petrol/gas supplier/ fuel stations
you mean your electricity billing company ? Ampol does not produce electricity
@ the energy producers don’t sell electricity that’s given to a third party like Ampol and many others and you just shop around when ever you want to and charge energy retailers when ever you want to.
True about the decline wrong about the price.
Gasoline is local. Crude is not.
It's not really, there's literally tens of thousands of new EV cars sitting in Germany that the manufacturers can't sell
Because the German EV's are poor, or too expensive ? Are there German made Tesla's standing around unsold ?
@@StringLadder Oh that was good.
Er no, Teslas are selling!
Take care M.
@@tilapiadave3234 False! Tesla has the lowest finished-good inventory in the industry by a long shot! Almost 100% of Tesla's finished-good inventory are cars in transit between the factories and their purchasers.
A huge chunk of those are Chinese, and a huge chunk of the rest is more because the car market as a whole has taken a hit.
Have not found anything supporting the "literally tens of thousands" comment, but sales did fall. Maybe they can be shipped to Belgium, the Netherlands, France or Spain as their demand is still increasing. Germany's drop in demand it directly connected to the unexpected withdrawal of purchase incentives. Buyers are waiting for them to return.
Can oil companies shift into capture of escaping methane gas (melting perma frost, elsewhere)?
i forget its name but theres a law about complexity of systems and how long it takes to transition them. the more complex a energy system is the harder the transition/upgrade is, the more systems already using grid means more interruptions and the longer it takes.(its also why theirs been no alien contact or signs of a 'type 3 civ' out there[our concept of what a type 3 civ looks like is fatally flawed by our extrapolations of our current cultural system])
we had to stay ahead of china we started WELL ahead but we had the more complex system to transition. once they pulled ahead it was all over red rover now we have to come to terms with new reality and use their systems for a generation AT LEAST like they had to while they where catching up
There is no infrastructure even if it reaches tipping point. For instance where I live, the grid gets flooded with solar energy it can't store in summer. In winter we face shortages. Even if we had the capability to store in summer until winter or generate more in winter there is no infrastructure to transport this to the places of high demand. Not to mention this renewable energy producing infrastructure and EV batteries require lots of petroleum and rare minerals for it to be manufactured. Then there's all the daily products we use which rely on oil. The tipping point is meaningless from a macro-economic point of view.
EV cars will easily soak all of the cheap solar power in summer.
Winter is a big problem.
China is still building coal plants whereas in many countries in the west coal plants are closing or already done so. Oil will continue to be used for many decades. Claims of peak oil are widely exaggerated
1) coal isn't oil
2) Chinese coal plants are far more efficient than the ones they're replacing
3) Chinese coal plants are far lower utilization than previous. The high numbers are required to fill in for renewables adoption
4) will eventually be replaced by nuclear
Chinese actual coal usage probably peaked last year. At worst, this year, despite record capacity. Utilization is key, just Google it.
😅😅😅😅😅😅
Would like to see slower use so we don’t need to keep scraping more.
What a load o ctap
Given the volume of PHEVs being sold in China, how can gasoline be dead?
Electricity is the future, and the future is coming.
Electrical everything is definitely the future, and always will be - just like fusion energy.
Amazing ... when did they invent electricity ?
Isn’t it the supply of oil that is important in this equation as well? I mean like OPEC countries can control the supply of oil in the world basically. So what would the consequence if a demand decrease?
That sounds great, petrol stations becoming recharging stations. Can't wait for that beautiful clean clear air and no annoying noise levels from ICE as EVs increase in numbers. Carbon emissions from cars are a huge reason for global warming, import tax on EVs is not good for the planet and its environment. We should be encouraged to buy them.
U ppl sound so foolish ev are technically worse do ur reserve smh u have so many other things doing way more damage to the air than cars so miss me with clean air speech
@@jermaineogarro2124 And EVs seem to cause a lot of fires that cant be put out as easy as ICEs Just seems great for the environment doesn't it? but no one will talk about that lol