See a lot of people not really understanding the concept so I'll say this. The increase of odds of blocking a punt with 10 guys to 11 guys does not outweigh the odds of somehow winning by getting a single offensive play. So with 11 man: maybe like 2% to block the kick, 0% win if you don't block it with 10 man: probably still 2% to block the kick, 2% chance to win if you don't block it.
I say they should have returned that punt, maybe with three guys back, so NDSU didn’t know who would get the ball. You could pitch it around, do some kind of return fake, or just fair catch it, maybe even get a fair catch penalty, if NDSU gets overzealous. And then another offensive play. All better than rushing all eleven players especially.
@@andrewthomadsen5220 It would be hard to get accurate probability estimates because the punter's knowledge that there is no return man decreases the chances of a block significantly, and there is very little data one could use to estimate that effect (because it is so uncommon to rush 11).
You shouldn't have said that it cost them a national championship. That makes no sense based on what you are saying here. It almost definitely cost them nothing, since a loss was in the cards either way.
And yet only like 5 were any where near the punter, and three blockers shoved rushers back into the other two, where were the other 6? No where near the punter!
Actually, I think the dumbest thing they did was the play in the first half where their defense left absolutely no-one in the center of the field, and the quarterback just ran straight up the middle, without any blockers, for like 70 yards into the end zone.
Yeah, anybody who has followed NDSU knew they liked to do that. Evidently MSU's DC didn't watch much game tape. The decision to try to go for it on 4th down right before the half from midfield cost them 7 points as well.
What’s more likely, to run a punt back, or block it when rushing 11? They rolled the dice. Bad snap, mishandled by punter, blocked punt…….any would have been good. Or let’s cross our fingers and hope we return this for a touchdown with no time in the clock. Not a dumb decision.
This costing them a championship is a bit strong. Maybe they get a miraculous return or lateral 30 times and score. Long and longer odds. Setting up a good punt block attempt may have been the best thing, but MAYBE have a return man.
You don't win it on the return. Fair catch it or down it. Change of possession stops the clock. Granted it's only one play you'll have after that, but it's more of a chance than watching it roll until the clock shows 0:00
Montana state going for it on fourth and long just before half was the actual moment they lost. Gave a short field with just enough time for an ndsu touchdown.
Maybe it’s hoping for one extra guy being there if the punter fumbles the snap, like Michigan State/Michigan years ago? With the distance being way too far for a Hail Mary, the only other play is repeated pitches, which almost never works. Many of the historic examples of it working would be overturned by modern replay.
The most egregious part of the "block" attempt was that not a single one of the guys who were going in to block the punt put up a hand. It's like their goal was to bum rush the defenders and push them into the kicker. That was a low kick coming off the foot, and they were 3-4 yards away. 6 hands, and not a single one went up to actually try and make the block.
Montana State didn't lose the national championship because of this play. They lost because of what happened in the previous 59 minutes and 50 seconds. Sure, it would have made more sense to try to return the punt, but it is ludicrous to say this is the "dumbest way to lose a national championship."
Their rush was so stupid, though. They sent 4 guys to ram into a 3-person wall in front of the kicker, instead of 3 with 1 trying to sneak around unblocked, or 2 into the wall with 2 trying to sneak around untouched. If they are going to waste 1 rusher, they might as well had a receiver instead. So while you may be correct in principle, their implementation was STOOOPID.
I watched the highlights video after I got home from work last night and my jaw dropped when I saw 11 men on the line for Montana for that punt. I knew instantly that 1) the game was over and 2) There was gonna be an Isaac Punts video on it. Absolutely atrocious call by the coaching staff to not have a return man. Not an exaggeration to say it cost them, if not the national championship, at the very least it cost them their final chance at it.
Down by 3 with 10 seconds to go receiving a punt, and the game is over regardless. Any decision is pretty much guaranteed to lose. No, this decision didn't cost them the championship.
100%. Put out a safe formation with two guys back and either run a razzle dazzle return or call a fair catch and try a miracle offensive play. Slim odds no matter what but a better chance than whatever that was. Coach out-thought himself.
If they don't block the punt, what are the odds that they actually score in one play? 2 percent? Less? Pretty over the top to say this cost them a national championship.
@@andrasszabo1570 I'd concur. Might as well go for the block, but also have possibility of hail mary. Maybe there'd have been time for 2 plays. It's low percentage payoff--but better than what was done.
NDSU has such a grueling regular season schedule they, players and coaches, are extremely battle tested by playoff time making it very difficult to defeat them. The game was really enjoyable to watch.
People so lost on this. With no returner, any punt that clears the line will have the same effect, because there is no returning team member to field it. They would be able to simply squib it down the middle of the field so it bounces for 10 seconds and rolls along. Like they did. Blocking punts is already unlikely, and even a miffed punt gains nothing. It makes it nearly impossible for the kicking team to get a penalty, which is far more likely during a return. Especially if there are a bunch of laterals and whatnot.
During the return, it is the return team that is more likely to commit the penalty. When you rush more than the number of available blockers, it ups the odds of the kicking team committing a penalty.
I agree with that. Marshawn was a big, heavy back. However, there were other factors like Pete Carroll not having or using the right goal line package. That had used an islander DT as a blocking back. Also, he may have had a play with Lynch going off tackle or a little wide. Short yardage and goal line strategy is a lost art. Russ had good legs then. Marshawn had good hands. Maybe a run-pass option pitch rather than going into the heart of that Pats' stout defense.
The big problem is that Pete was AWFUL with his timeouts. They wasted one in the 3rd quarter. So let's rerun that last scenario, but you HAVE a time out left. Then you DO give Marshawn the ball one time and if he doesn't make it, you call a time out. But as they pointlessly gave a time out away, they didn't have it.....
I was watching that live. And as a relative NDSU fan (as the closest D1 school to where I grew up), I was mildly anxious at the idea that the game would come down to one last play. And then it didn't because...reasons? Absolutely mind-boggling to me.
What’s more likely, to run a punt back, or block it when rushing 11? They rolled the dice. Bad snap, mishandled by punter, blocked punt…….any would have been good. Or let’s cross our fingers and hope we return this for a touchdown with no time in the clock. Not a dumb decision.
Rushing 10 gives you probably the same chances of blocking it as rushing 11, as well as giving you an extra offensive play. Just purely the right call is to bring 10
Heard a lot of hype about Tommy Mellot, so I wanted to check out the game. He ran out of bounds on the ND sideline. When he came to a stop, he decided to to knock over the trash can on purpose. The guy is a class act 🙄
They lost the Championship by the foolish 4th and 5 they went for at mid-field just before half. Gave the ball right to NDST which scored a TD, compliments of that horrid decision. The punt with 10 sec. left in the game was completely meaningless.
The funnier thing is none of the guys rushing up the middle even tried to leap to actually block the punt. It was a bunch of big guys and they all went to hit the blockers in front of them without even putting a hand up.🤦♂
Gonna be honest, no one is talking about how that kicker #4 got it off, when you have 11 people coming at you and you're able to get a kick off that quickly, thay is on par for nfl punters, nice job by that player. On a whole other note during that punt, one of the players was ready to pick it up with about 3 seconds left and one of his teammates #48 was telling him to get away from the ball entirely, good that that player. Both of those were high level plays that also took alot of risk away from even giving Montana st a chance to even score.
Blocking a punt is an art in itself. Years ago, the LA Rams special teams coach used a couple Pro Bowl corners just for that purpose. You have to take an exacting angle. It takes practice, so the Rams used a volleyball so it would not hurt the players hands and forearms so much.
Totally agree with you, Isaac Punts. Absolutely horrible special teams call with time on the clock, rushing all eleven players especially through the center gap, where players are elbow to elbow trying to get to the punter, and three guys block them, easy punt, no returner, they just let the clock run out before downing the ball, absolutely terrible call, MSU deserved to lose this game for other reasons as well, no perfect season because they didn’t play perfectly in this game!
or.. or... at the very least put your hands up? dudes just tried bull rushing 3 on 3 thinking that would do anything. this is truly a shameful way to lose
Of course if they block the punt and return it for a touchdown they are geniuses. Just an opposing view, great video and post. Peace and Happy New Year.
I've heard it said (by a college punter, specifically Jesse Kosch, the starting punter for Nebraska's football team from 1995-97) that "games aren't decided by punting". I guess this game was the exception, thanks to Montana State's questionable decision to send all 11 of their players to attempt a kick block...
The funny thing was the announcers were talking about how the coaches discuss end game scenarios every night and MSU runs a play certain to waste their chance of a final play.
Yes and had they blocked the punt, you would have made a video about the same play praising their play call, courage, and strength in getting that win no matter what. Nothing but hindsight 101.
Montana States best team in school history and maybe North Dakota States 15th best team and results speak for themselves, NDSU’s 18th national championship 🏆
Another option, and the one I woulda chosen as Bison coach: DONT commit the delay penalty; run a play from the 45, such that if we fail to run out the clock for make the 2 yards, Cats face a 62yd FG to tie or a Hail Mary to win -- both very low probabilities. And who sez we won't a) do a 6 sec rollout and throw a deep pass with 4 sec hang time, or b) do same rollout and, if he's open, hit the underneath guy for 3yds?
You make a good point: the odds of blocking a punt with 11 guys is probably not that much greater than with 10 guys. And if they had a returner, he could have signaled for a fair catch and thus killed the clock and given them a chance to throw a Hail Mary.
I wonder if they have some stats guy on the team who told the coach they have better odds of blocking a punt for the win than returning it for the win. I don't know.
Realistically, the game was pretty much already over. The odds of blocking the punt are just as slim as the odds of running a punt return back for a touchdown imo
The game was pretty much over, yes, but was not :00 over. The odds of blocking the punt are the same with 10 or 11. The odds of running a punt back for not just a TD, but anything is infinitely better with a returner than without one. Even if he can't advance the ball, he can still fair catch it and keep some time on the clock. Montana made a decision that couldn't gain them anything but did actively hinder them give themselves the best chance. The coaching staff has to put the players in the best position, that's literally their job.
@@andrasszabo1570 Odds of blocking are way higher than a punt return for TD, which is way higher than a Hail Mary or multi-lateral play from 70+ yards.
@@thefirm9746 I'll try to spell it out for you. There is literally nothing to be gained from putting all your eggs into the blocked punt basket and leaving the other 2 empty. The chance to block the punt doesn't change when you send 10 or 11. But it does change the odds of running a return or a Hail Mary from 99% to zero. Even if there is a 0,00000000001% chance of one of them succeeding, that's still infinitely better than deliberately declining it.
I can't say that decision cost them the championship. A return or fair catch would have given them one last shot but it still would have been low odds. Dumb play call, though.
I thought there might've been a rule change given how none of the defenders jumped or reached up to attempt a block. "Oh I guess they just have to fall onto the ball nowadays?"
Well this had started an argument in the College Football Internet discussion places on Reddit and elsewhere on the internet and I see your suggestion of at least a returner to make the punter consider where to kick it and how and hell maybe that gets some guys of the line increasing a block chance if you send the other ten or at least give that impression for the first split second of the play. Even ten yards to the side line could put you in range for a hail mary and if making the punter hesitate and think delays it especially when the middle line men actually start running back to cover then maybe it's the best of both worlds and actually open's up the possibility of the block by forcing the gunners to go down field leaving NDSU with potentially 8 blockers on 10 guys.
That play, though hard to make sense of, didn’t cost them the championship. Even if they had a fair catch it still would have taken a miracle to pull off anything to get points.
I get what you're saying about Montana State messing this up, but I prefer to give credit to North Dakota's punter. No time, no chance for error, and he drilled the punt. He had one job, and he did it perfectly.
With just 10 seconds left, Montana State didn’t have a choice. They went all out for the block and it just didn’t pay off. It was the only way that they could’ve possibly had a chance as there wasn’t enough time to get into field-goal range.
When I watched this live, I was like “is he stupid?” Even when it’s the first half, the punt team lets the ball roll around. Long shot that they could’ve done something to win, but he didn’t give them that chance.
To be fair the MSU UM punt game was this same exact scenario and MSU ended up winning because they sent the house on it. Granted the UM punter mishandled the snap but still you never know what will happen.
I might be wrong but didn't the "He has trouble with the snap" MSU UofM game end on a punt block with no returners? Clock was zero when Jalen Watts-Jackson ran it in with no time remaining. Worked out for MSU back then.
I am an MSU alumni, and they came into that game totally unprepared and with less energy than any game all season, except maybe the first game. They made so many dumb mistakes, there is no way they could have beaten another good team. NDSU knows how to prepare to play after a long layoff, MSU does not. If the game would have been played a week after the semi finals I think MSU would have won.
A little off topic but i was curious to know what you think of Soccer. I am on my schools varsity team and the football players constantly make fun of us
Insightful as always. Is it just me or are these two teams ALWays in the FCS Championship? Also: did you see how #28 (I think) got DROPPED on his rush...LOL
MSU should have had a returner to at least have a very slim, 4% chance of winning. But as a lifelong Griz fan, my hat is off to MSU Bobcats in creating the most dominate team my State of Montana has ever seen, at least in my 52 years!
This was a very entertaining game, I agree. But you’re off base a bit on the criticism. All that happened is that they went from having a lottery ticket in the pick 3 (a 1 in 1,000 chance) to forgetting to buy a ticket. All they threw away was a snowball’s chance in hell of scoring, as they were too far for even a Hail Mary. Where they really lost this is when they let NDSU convert on a 3rd and 15 late in the 4th quarter. NDSU was holding a lead at that time, so they didn’t have to try for that conversion with the same fervor as if they were down, and Montana State’s defense still couldn’t hold them. Anyways, it was a really good game.
It didn't "cost" them the game. With a fair catch, they would have been around their own 20 with 3 or 4 seconds to go, so the game was over. However, you are correct about the punt block play. That was horrendous execution.
There were only 10 seconds left on the clock. If it takes 1.5 - 2 seconds to get the punt off with a hang time of 3 - 3.5 seconds, that leaves between 4.5 - 5.5 seconds to get off a 65 yard Hail Mary pass. They had just as good a chance at blocking it as throwing the ball 65 yards into the end zone.
I saw the highlights and thought what the hell. it's like they just downed the ball and said oh well, we give up. I thought the same thing. Play the probabilities. Sending 10 is probably almost as good as sending 11 and still gives you a chance for a return, down the ball and then some type of trick play. It's like playing the lottery. Two tickets doubles your chances of winning even though you're still gonna lose!
I would agree absolutely. We watched that game and were commenting on this egregiously poor decision on Montana State's part. Even a fair catch gives you a chance for a "hail mary" type play.
Montana State was trying to do what Michigan State was able to do against Michigan in 2015, hoping the punter would have trouble with the snap, recover the ball, and score a TD to win.
It was undeniably a stupid decision. The ending of the game was maddening. First, earlier in the quarter, an MSU receiver appears to cross the goal line but is called short. Instead of waiting for a review (and the review shows he crossed the plane) MSU rushes down and runs a play. It takes MSU 6 plays to punch it in. That wasted 3 full minutes. Then, MSU actually had a great chance to recover the on-sides kick. The ball was on the ground. The MSU guy was closer. NDSU just wanted it more. MSU's QB played a whale of a game but MSU was dropping passes and flubbing coverage all night. NDSU defenders made at least 6 one-on-one touchdown tackles and the receivers made crazy catches. MSU was the better team but every played on NDSU played as if it was their chance for a title.
If you block the punt you either run it back for the TD, put yourself in field goal range, or are close enough for a hail mary. If you take the fair catch your only hope is some type of hook and ladder followed by desperate laterals... easy to see why they went for the block.
Well, I wouldn't say it "cost them the championship" (they probably would've lost anyway), but I agree with you that it was insanity not to have a returner.
See a lot of people not really understanding the concept so I'll say this. The increase of odds of blocking a punt with 10 guys to 11 guys does not outweigh the odds of somehow winning by getting a single offensive play.
So with 11 man: maybe like 2% to block the kick, 0% win if you don't block it
with 10 man: probably still 2% to block the kick, 2% chance to win if you don't block it.
It would be really cool if we could get some real statistics. Is there any way I can find out what the real odds are?
Nah bro we understand, you're just trying to make this into something else so you get some clicky title.
I say they should have returned that punt, maybe with three guys back, so NDSU didn’t know who would get the ball. You could pitch it around, do some kind of return fake, or just fair catch it, maybe even get a fair catch penalty, if NDSU gets overzealous. And then another offensive play. All better than rushing all eleven players especially.
@@andrewthomadsen5220 It would be hard to get accurate probability estimates because the punter's knowledge that there is no return man decreases the chances of a block significantly, and there is very little data one could use to estimate that effect (because it is so uncommon to rush 11).
You shouldn't have said that it cost them a national championship. That makes no sense based on what you are saying here. It almost definitely cost them nothing, since a loss was in the cards either way.
Can't believe a national championship game ended on a walk off punt
Great Comment "walk off punt" 3 words I never thought I would hear
That's a good comparison.
It reminded me of a empty net in hockey.
I cant believe we didn't have rich parents schools in the national championship game
2003 LSU vs Oklahoma ended the same way
Senior punter, very smart. they should have tried a return with all the laterals.
“Do you know how easy it is to get a punt off when you see all 11 guys line up in front of you”.
2015 Michigan still catching strays in 2024.
The odds of 11 rushers blocking the punt is not much higher than sending 10.
And yet only like 5 were any where near the punter, and three blockers shoved rushers back into the other two, where were the other 6? No where near the punter!
Whoa! He has trouble with the snap, and the ball is free!
Did the Spartans rush all-in without a returner in '15?
There only hope with 10 seconds left was to block it
Actually, I think the dumbest thing they did was the play in the first half where their defense left absolutely no-one in the center of the field, and the quarterback just ran straight up the middle, without any blockers, for like 70 yards into the end zone.
64 yards, close enough.
Yeah, anybody who has followed NDSU knew they liked to do that. Evidently MSU's DC didn't watch much game tape. The decision to try to go for it on 4th down right before the half from midfield cost them 7 points as well.
That was unacceptable.. Like how?
definitely stealing that play. 5 wide. Everyone runs outs. So simple but if you got a fast QB. Go for it
This!
This feels like a lose-lose-lose situation with any option having a near zero chance of actually working.
Unless there is “TROUBLE WITH THE SNAP,” I’m curious if “sending all 11” on a punt block has ever worked in this kind of situation.
What’s more likely, to run a punt back, or block it when rushing 11? They rolled the dice.
Bad snap, mishandled by punter, blocked punt…….any would have been good.
Or let’s cross our fingers and hope we return this for a touchdown with no time in the clock.
Not a dumb decision.
Agreed
@@BigPermDawgOr fair catch and try a play where you can at least have your offense on the field 😂
@fecalmatador
How many 80 yard hail Mary’s have you witnessed?
Remember Michigan-Michigan St back in 2015?
This costing them a championship is a bit strong. Maybe they get a miraculous return or lateral 30 times and score. Long and longer odds. Setting up a good punt block attempt may have been the best thing, but MAYBE have a return man.
You don't win it on the return. Fair catch it or down it. Change of possession stops the clock. Granted it's only one play you'll have after that, but it's more of a chance than watching it roll until the clock shows 0:00
This guy is a clown. Returning that punt for a TD was very unlikely, just like blocking the punt and returning it was very unlikely.
@@angrytater2456 agreed. I actually thought it was the only chance they had.
@@StephenScannell I thought it was a slick call that could have caught them with their pants down.
I agree. Selling this as "this cost them a championship" was pretty extreme.
uhmmm 1:25.....No one even has their arms up or at least jumps????
THANK YOU! NOBODY EVEN JUMPS???
Right, you'd think at least somebody would have tried to super man over the blockers or something
The rusher on the left got completely blown up and went flying backwards!
@@davidice7454 the rusher on the right slowed down too and didnt even run to the ball.
Montana state going for it on fourth and long just before half was the actual moment they lost. Gave a short field with just enough time for an ndsu touchdown.
Totally agree
Right when I saw them lineup for that I instantly knew it was gonna bite them in the ass
Odds of getting a punt block are very slim.
Oklahoma did that in 2003 vs LSU in the natty - surprise 😮 It didnt work 😒
The odds have to be better than scoring a touchdown from their own 15 though, right?
Maybe it’s hoping for one extra guy being there if the punter fumbles the snap, like Michigan State/Michigan years ago?
With the distance being way too far for a Hail Mary, the only other play is repeated pitches, which almost never works. Many of the historic examples of it working would be overturned by modern replay.
Stop using the "word" NATTY. It sounds like something a toddler would call his blanket. "Mommy, where is my natty!?"
@@Stoneador yes indeed. people saying bringing the house was dumb are themselves dumb.
The most egregious part of the "block" attempt was that not a single one of the guys who were going in to block the punt put up a hand. It's like their goal was to bum rush the defenders and push them into the kicker. That was a low kick coming off the foot, and they were 3-4 yards away. 6 hands, and not a single one went up to actually try and make the block.
Montana State didn't lose the national championship because of this play. They lost because of what happened in the previous 59 minutes and 50 seconds. Sure, it would have made more sense to try to return the punt, but it is ludicrous to say this is the "dumbest way to lose a national championship."
10 seconds from 80 yards out! Yes miracles happen but best chance was a block and best chance to get the block was 11 rushing.
Their rush was so stupid, though. They sent 4 guys to ram into a 3-person wall in front of the kicker, instead of 3 with 1 trying to sneak around unblocked, or 2 into the wall with 2 trying to sneak around untouched. If they are going to waste 1 rusher, they might as well had a receiver instead. So while you may be correct in principle, their implementation was STOOOPID.
I watched the highlights video after I got home from work last night and my jaw dropped when I saw 11 men on the line for Montana for that punt. I knew instantly that 1) the game was over and 2) There was gonna be an Isaac Punts video on it. Absolutely atrocious call by the coaching staff to not have a return man. Not an exaggeration to say it cost them, if not the national championship, at the very least it cost them their final chance at it.
Down by 3 with 10 seconds to go receiving a punt, and the game is over regardless. Any decision is pretty much guaranteed to lose.
No, this decision didn't cost them the championship.
100%. Put out a safe formation with two guys back and either run a razzle dazzle return or call a fair catch and try a miracle offensive play. Slim odds no matter what but a better chance than whatever that was. Coach out-thought himself.
@@RobJaskula and what if the punter runs backwards and downs it at the 1 with no time left?
The game was over before the punt.
get a grip on reality. the only chance they had was to block the punt. ur intellect is severely lacking and the 100 upvotes are similarly stupid.
If they don't block the punt, what are the odds that they actually score in one play? 2 percent? Less? Pretty over the top to say this cost them a national championship.
yes. So Montana St could have thrown a hail mary, probably pass landing well before the end zone.
I would say the percentage chance to block a punt is smaller going from 10 to 11 rushers than it is to win the game going from 1 to 2 plays.
Still, it would've been infinitely better to keep somebody back there than having no returner.
Even a minuscule chance is infinitely better than none.
@@andrasszabo1570 This. Exactly this.
@@andrasszabo1570 I'd concur. Might as well go for the block, but also have possibility of hail mary. Maybe there'd have been time for 2 plays. It's low percentage payoff--but better than what was done.
NDSU has such a grueling regular season schedule they, players and coaches, are extremely battle tested by playoff time making it very difficult to defeat them. The game was really enjoyable to watch.
People so lost on this. With no returner, any punt that clears the line will have the same effect, because there is no returning team member to field it. They would be able to simply squib it down the middle of the field so it bounces for 10 seconds and rolls along. Like they did.
Blocking punts is already unlikely, and even a miffed punt gains nothing. It makes it nearly impossible for the kicking team to get a penalty, which is far more likely during a return. Especially if there are a bunch of laterals and whatnot.
WTF is a "miffed" punt? I don't think punts have emotions.
During the return, it is the return team that is more likely to commit the penalty. When you rush more than the number of available blockers, it ups the odds of the kicking team committing a penalty.
The Chicago Bears should hire this coaching staff. They'd fit right in with the ineptitude of last play game management
I don’t understand why they did that 😂
WHOA
Then you don't understand football.
None of the front line rushers even jumped with their hands up, in an attempt to block the punt. Pretty pathetic, if you ask me
Well, no, not handing the ball to Marshawn Lynch is the dumbest way to lose. Still a bit bitter about that one...
lol
Did you know in that Superbowl the Patriots had already stopped Lynch on short yardage at least once and possibly more?
Running backs do get stuffed from time to time. He was the best back in the nfl at the time and he seahawks still had a time out.
I agree with that. Marshawn was a big, heavy back. However, there were other factors like Pete Carroll not having or using the right goal line package. That had used an islander DT as a blocking back. Also, he may have had a play with Lynch going off tackle or a little wide. Short yardage and goal line strategy is a lost art. Russ had good legs then. Marshawn had good hands. Maybe a run-pass option pitch rather than going into the heart of that Pats' stout defense.
The big problem is that Pete was AWFUL with his timeouts. They wasted one in the 3rd quarter. So let's rerun that last scenario, but you HAVE a time out left. Then you DO give Marshawn the ball one time and if he doesn't make it, you call a time out. But as they pointlessly gave a time out away, they didn't have it.....
I was watching that live. And as a relative NDSU fan (as the closest D1 school to where I grew up), I was mildly anxious at the idea that the game would come down to one last play.
And then it didn't because...reasons? Absolutely mind-boggling to me.
What’s more likely, to run a punt back, or block it when rushing 11? They rolled the dice.
Bad snap, mishandled by punter, blocked punt…….any would have been good.
Or let’s cross our fingers and hope we return this for a touchdown with no time in the clock.
Not a dumb decision.
Rushing 10 gives you probably the same chances of blocking it as rushing 11, as well as giving you an extra offensive play. Just purely the right call is to bring 10
Heard a lot of hype about Tommy Mellot, so I wanted to check out the game. He ran out of bounds on the ND sideline. When he came to a stop, he decided to to knock over the trash can on purpose. The guy is a class act 🙄
They lost the Championship by the foolish 4th and 5 they went for at mid-field just before half. Gave the ball right to NDST which scored a TD, compliments of that horrid decision. The punt with 10 sec. left in the game was completely meaningless.
The funnier thing is none of the guys rushing up the middle even tried to leap to actually block the punt. It was a bunch of big guys and they all went to hit the blockers in front of them without even putting a hand up.🤦♂
Gonna be honest, no one is talking about how that kicker #4 got it off, when you have 11 people coming at you and you're able to get a kick off that quickly, thay is on par for nfl punters, nice job by that player.
On a whole other note during that punt, one of the players was ready to pick it up with about 3 seconds left and one of his teammates #48 was telling him to get away from the ball entirely, good that that player. Both of those were high level plays that also took alot of risk away from even giving Montana st a chance to even score.
Blocking a punt is an art in itself. Years ago, the LA Rams special teams coach used a couple Pro Bowl corners just for that purpose. You have to take an exacting angle. It takes practice, so the Rams used a volleyball so it would not hurt the players hands and forearms so much.
Totally agree with you, Isaac Punts. Absolutely horrible special teams call with time on the clock, rushing all eleven players especially through the center gap, where players are elbow to elbow trying to get to the punter, and three guys block them, easy punt, no returner, they just let the clock run out before downing the ball, absolutely terrible call, MSU deserved to lose this game for other reasons as well, no perfect season because they didn’t play perfectly in this game!
Didn’t cost them the Championship. You are assuming they would have scored on a Hail Mary. Better to say, they blew a chance for a last play.
A successful punt would mean that they would start deep in their own territory, where even a Hail Mary isn’t an option
None of those front defenders even put their hands up to try and catch a piece of the ball. Yikes...
If one guy would have jumped, instead of trying to hit the guy in front of them. That ball was sooooo low.
Obviously Montana State knew the game was over after they didn't recover the onside kick. It's no more complicated than that.
or.. or... at the very least put your hands up? dudes just tried bull rushing 3 on 3 thinking that would do anything. this is truly a shameful way to lose
It didnt cost them a championship. It just lost them an opportunity to do something other than leave the field.
Montana st will never beat North Dakota State in the postseason ever it’s a tale as old as time
"🎶Tale as old as time, song as old as rhyme, Natty and the Bison!🎶"
Montana State was hoping ND State would have trouble with the snap and the ball would become free.
Pshh that would never happen, especially not in a heated instate rivalry game... right?
@@IsaacPunts hahaha yeah that would be HEY WAIT A GOSH DARN MINUTE
...go blue tho.
I guarantee you, the FCS natty will be 1000 times better than the FBS natty.
"natty"? I bet you're one of those guys who drives a "stang".
Of course if they block the punt and return it for a touchdown they are geniuses. Just an opposing view, great video and post. Peace and Happy New Year.
I've heard it said (by a college punter, specifically Jesse Kosch, the starting punter for Nebraska's football team from 1995-97) that "games aren't decided by punting". I guess this game was the exception, thanks to Montana State's questionable decision to send all 11 of their players to attempt a kick block...
The funny thing was the announcers were talking about how the coaches discuss end game scenarios every night and MSU runs a play certain to waste their chance of a final play.
Yes and had they blocked the punt, you would have made a video about the same play praising their play call, courage, and strength in getting that win no matter what. Nothing but hindsight 101.
I agree with coach. The only chance was to block punt with only 10 seconds. C,mon.
It’s not like they would win if they fielded the punt and had 1 last play, way out of hail Mary range
Exactly. So the comparison is blocked punt chances versus multiple lateral walkoff TD chances. Multi-lateral is statistically almost zero.
When you even send the dog and cat .........that's the epitome of desperation.
Montana States best team in school history and maybe North Dakota States 15th best team and results speak for themselves, NDSU’s 18th national championship 🏆
True, this is NOT the best team the Bison have had through their Championship run. Better than the last two years however.
Another option, and the one I woulda chosen as Bison coach:
DONT commit the delay penalty; run a play from the 45, such that if we fail to run out the clock for make the 2 yards, Cats face a 62yd FG to tie or a Hail Mary to win -- both very low probabilities.
And who sez we won't
a) do a 6 sec rollout and throw a deep pass with 4 sec hang time, or
b) do same rollout and, if he's open, hit the underneath guy for 3yds?
You make a good point: the odds of blocking a punt with 11 guys is probably not that much greater than with 10 guys. And if they had a returner, he could have signaled for a fair catch and thus killed the clock and given them a chance to throw a Hail Mary.
I wonder if they have some stats guy on the team who told the coach they have better odds of blocking a punt for the win than returning it for the win. I don't know.
The guys rushing the punter didn’t even look like they were trying that hard
Realistically, the game was pretty much already over. The odds of blocking the punt are just as slim as the odds of running a punt return back for a touchdown imo
The game was pretty much over, yes, but was not :00 over.
The odds of blocking the punt are the same with 10 or 11.
The odds of running a punt back for not just a TD, but anything is infinitely better with a returner than without one.
Even if he can't advance the ball, he can still fair catch it and keep some time on the clock.
Montana made a decision that couldn't gain them anything but did actively hinder them give themselves the best chance.
The coaching staff has to put the players in the best position, that's literally their job.
Or if the punter had trouble with the snap, like that game in 2015.
If there had been a return man the Bison would not have kicked it to him.
@@andrasszabo1570 Odds of blocking are way higher than a punt return for TD, which is way higher than a Hail Mary or multi-lateral play from 70+ yards.
@@thefirm9746 I'll try to spell it out for you.
There is literally nothing to be gained from putting all your eggs into the blocked punt basket and leaving the other 2 empty.
The chance to block the punt doesn't change when you send 10 or 11.
But it does change the odds of running a return or a Hail Mary from 99% to zero.
Even if there is a 0,00000000001% chance of one of them succeeding, that's still infinitely better than deliberately declining it.
It was a calculated risk. A blocked punt gives them a snowball's chance in hell of winning. Going 80 yards in five seconds with no time outs does not.
Didn't think I'd see my Bison on an Isaac Punts video, ever.
It didn't cost them the national championship, it cost them a long shot chance at the national championship.
I can't say that decision cost them the championship. A return or fair catch would have given them one last shot but it still would have been low odds. Dumb play call, though.
The only logic I can see here is that the return team thought the punting team were going to try a safety play to run out the clock.
I thought there might've been a rule change given how none of the defenders jumped or reached up to attempt a block. "Oh I guess they just have to fall onto the ball nowadays?"
None of those guys jumped or got their hands up either. Couldn’t believe no returner for the fair catch…..
This wild too cause even if they block it they gotta get into the end zone basically! Unless they can block it and get it on it immediately.
Agreed... i thought the same thing... Their odds for runback far exceed a block and a score with only 10 seconds left.
What makes one last play from their own 15 yard line a better option than attempting to block the punt? Do tell.
Well this had started an argument in the College Football Internet discussion places on Reddit and elsewhere on the internet and I see your suggestion of at least a returner to make the punter consider where to kick it and how and hell maybe that gets some guys of the line increasing a block chance if you send the other ten or at least give that impression for the first split second of the play. Even ten yards to the side line could put you in range for a hail mary and if making the punter hesitate and think delays it especially when the middle line men actually start running back to cover then maybe it's the best of both worlds and actually open's up the possibility of the block by forcing the gunners to go down field leaving NDSU with potentially 8 blockers on 10 guys.
That play, though hard to make sense of, didn’t cost them the championship. Even if they had a fair catch it still would have taken a miracle to pull off anything to get points.
I would never exchange a 1% chance of winning for a .8% chance of winning--ever!
Special Teams cost us against the Montana Grizzlies last year, and it won us the championship this year.
I get what you're saying about Montana State messing this up, but I prefer to give credit to North Dakota's punter. No time, no chance for error, and he drilled the punt. He had one job, and he did it perfectly.
The national sport of Montana is calf roping anyway, not much of a football state really.
Not true. 3 out of last 4 years we have had a team in the National Championship, and the Grizzlies have the greatest FCS stadium in the nation.
The only issue I saw was they didn't get their hands up when rushing the punter.
With just 10 seconds left, Montana State didn’t have a choice. They went all out for the block and it just didn’t pay off. It was the only way that they could’ve possibly had a chance as there wasn’t enough time to get into field-goal range.
They thought it was gonna be like that Michigan msu game 😂
No one gets lucky like the Michigan State Shamrocks.
They would’ve needed the mother of all Hail Marys to take advantage of a punt return.
At least give the offense a chance
Wtf were they thinking
When I watched this live, I was like “is he stupid?” Even when it’s the first half, the punt team lets the ball roll around. Long shot that they could’ve done something to win, but he didn’t give them that chance.
The hockey equivalent of vacating the net.
To be fair the MSU UM punt game was this same exact scenario and MSU ended up winning because they sent the house on it. Granted the UM punter mishandled the snap but still you never know what will happen.
I might be wrong but didn't the "He has trouble with the snap" MSU UofM game end on a punt block with no returners? Clock was zero when Jalen Watts-Jackson ran it in with no time remaining. Worked out for MSU back then.
Like the Ole High School Saying "It's Not That We Lost... It's the Way We Lost".
I am an MSU alumni, and they came into that game totally unprepared and with less energy than any game all season, except maybe the first game. They made so many dumb mistakes, there is no way they could have beaten another good team. NDSU knows how to prepare to play after a long layoff, MSU does not. If the game would have been played a week after the semi finals I think MSU would have won.
That Special Teams coach for Montana State should be fired... 🤣🤣🤯🤯
A little off topic but i was curious to know what you think of Soccer. I am on my schools varsity team and the football players constantly make fun of us
Soccer is for girls.
I saw that -- was watching the game live, amazing second half -- and was thinking they should have a 10 man rush and one guy back.
Does having 1 extra man on the rush really make that much of a difference in blocking the punt?
Insightful as always. Is it just me or are these two teams ALWays in the FCS Championship?
Also: did you see how #28 (I think) got DROPPED on his rush...LOL
Blocking the punt or a fumbled snap was their only shot with that little time left. See Michigan State at Michigan in 2015
MSU should have had a returner to at least have a very slim, 4% chance of winning. But as a lifelong Griz fan, my hat is off to MSU Bobcats in creating the most dominate team my State of Montana has ever seen, at least in my 52 years!
i saw this live and i was soooooo confused. i'm glad i'm not the only one.
This was a very entertaining game, I agree. But you’re off base a bit on the criticism. All that happened is that they went from having a lottery ticket in the pick 3 (a 1 in 1,000 chance) to forgetting to buy a ticket. All they threw away was a snowball’s chance in hell of scoring, as they were too far for even a Hail Mary.
Where they really lost this is when they let NDSU convert on a 3rd and 15 late in the 4th quarter. NDSU was holding a lead at that time, so they didn’t have to try for that conversion with the same fervor as if they were down, and Montana State’s defense still couldn’t hold them. Anyways, it was a really good game.
It didn't "cost" them the game. With a fair catch, they would have been around their own 20 with 3 or 4 seconds to go, so the game was over. However, you are correct about the punt block play. That was horrendous execution.
was 36 even running towards the kicker? looks like he's aiming at the shield
Did they get to Patrick Roy draw up this play?
There were only 10 seconds left on the clock. If it takes 1.5 - 2 seconds to get the punt off with a hang time of 3 - 3.5 seconds, that leaves between 4.5 - 5.5 seconds to get off a 65 yard Hail Mary pass. They had just as good a chance at blocking it as throwing the ball 65 yards into the end zone.
Mellot couldn't throw it that far.
Kind of like Arizona State practically announcing their intention to blitz the house on 4th down.
I saw the highlights and thought what the hell. it's like they just downed the ball and said oh well, we give up. I thought the same thing. Play the probabilities. Sending 10 is probably almost as good as sending 11 and still gives you a chance for a return, down the ball and then some type of trick play. It's like playing the lottery. Two tickets doubles your chances of winning even though you're still gonna lose!
I would agree absolutely. We watched that game and were commenting on this egregiously poor decision on Montana State's part. Even a fair catch gives you a chance for a "hail mary" type play.
Montana State was trying to do what Michigan State was able to do against Michigan in 2015, hoping the punter would have trouble with the snap, recover the ball, and score a TD to win.
It was undeniably a stupid decision. The ending of the game was maddening. First, earlier in the quarter, an MSU receiver appears to cross the goal line but is called short. Instead of waiting for a review (and the review shows he crossed the plane) MSU rushes down and runs a play. It takes MSU 6 plays to punch it in. That wasted 3 full minutes. Then, MSU actually had a great chance to recover the on-sides kick. The ball was on the ground. The MSU guy was closer. NDSU just wanted it more. MSU's QB played a whale of a game but MSU was dropping passes and flubbing coverage all night. NDSU defenders made at least 6 one-on-one touchdown tackles and the receivers made crazy catches. MSU was the better team but every played on NDSU played as if it was their chance for a title.
Think about how these coaches make it this far. Imagine if these teams actually had guys that had a clue what they were doing on the coaching staff.
If you block the punt you either run it back for the TD, put yourself in field goal range, or are close enough for a hail mary. If you take the fair catch your only hope is some type of hook and ladder followed by desperate laterals... easy to see why they went for the block.
I agree they lowered their chance of winning from 0.05% to 0.03% by not fair catching the punt.
Now that the nfl season is over will you do a top 5 worst and best punts of the season?
99.99% of the time....there was nothing they could do to win this game
Well, I wouldn't say it "cost them the championship" (they probably would've lost anyway), but I agree with you that it was insanity not to have a returner.