The Roaring 1990s: Déjà Vu All Over Again?

Many of this decade’s economic and financial market trends bear a striking resemblance to those of the 1990s. That was a decade in which a stock market meltup preceded a meltdown (in the early 2000s), so monitoring meltup indicators today is well worthwhile. Now, as then, stock market strength is translating to significant wealth effects that should keep the economy resilient and monetary policy restrictive for longer. Today, we highlight the two periods’ similar economic conditions (comparing the trajectories of real GDP growth, productivity growth, inflation, unemployment, and the federal funds rate) and financial market paths (bond yields, the stock market).

[@ttuck9603]

Thanks Ed - I really enjoy your insights!

[@edgardoberlioz2168]

Appreciate your objective perspectives

[@edgibbs3229]

Thank you, Ed! Really enjoy your great work.

[@tmangeles7575]

I keep trying to listen to Ed at accelerated speed... but I have to concentrate cause it is so meaty! So I have to keep rewinding and concentrating! lol
Good job, Ed!!

[@Mark-tm2zu]

Ed it us always good to hear you prove your thesis with hard facts and stats!

[@jamesmorris913]

Didn't even know that Ed had a channel until today, when this "popped up"..AWESOME! I've enjoyed the Yardeni perspective, ever since the Louis Rukeyser days!!

[@michaelschneider8656]

Thank you for your videos 🙏

[@kp2718]

Would be incredibly interesting to hear dr Ed recall some more on the economic / stock market sentiment in the 90s. Just googling some "1999 Bloomberg Cisco" articles is interesting enough, but I believe he would have way more to reveal.

[@MrDragon1964]

Thank you. Its very informative.

[@MaleehaMBCC]

Great summary always enjoy seeing your videos! One question, if productivity is so good and expected to move higher, why are you/many pricing in 3-4 rate cuts this year, especially if the labour market is stable. It does not add up as clearly rates at 5% are the new normal and not as tight?

[@Mark-tm2zu]

Hi Wd- I always try to watch your pod casts weekly. Can you comment in the future in the Fed using QE instead of rate increases and keeps rates unchanged until YE or 2025? Inflation could be stubborn.

[@edgardoberlioz2168]

Nasdaq exploded then it crushed it took 15 years to get your money back and majority of stocks cease to exist now went broke

[@mikes.2471]

@12:18 that comparison b/w csco and nvda, is how much further can it go before it pops.

[@Long_Tail_of_Finance]

Ed, what probability would you assign to having no rate cuts in 2024?

[@tastypymp1287]

0%

[@tommyl3207]

I'd love to hear your opinion on the $1.3(?) TRILLION in credit card debt. Also if it's true that the Government spent $800B in the 4Q to spur $300B in GDP Growth, how viable a modus operandi is that indefinitely? Either way, thanks Eddie.

[@tastypymp1287]

Nothing.
Due to inflation creditors will need to issue larger credit in nominal terms so consumers and businesses can, at minimum, purchase the same pre-inflationary goods and services at post-inflation prices.
The real question is has the rate in increase in debt far outstripped the rate of inflation?

[@edgardoberlioz2168]

Stocks are massively successively gapping up and gapping down ! It’s erratic irrational speculative behavior

[@69pepe420]

PEPE 🐸🐸🐸

[@bpb5541]

The debt is too high. Inflation is still an issue.

[@keithreynolds606]

stock markets don't go straight up FYI

[@BertaBeast]

Sure they do, for awhile...

[@oldernu1250]

The bells and whistles, they sound for thee...

[@keithreynolds606]

for awhile.@@BertaBeast

[@keithreynolds606]

dynamite drop-in monty@@oldernu1250

[@method341]

the jealousy flows through your keyboard

[@donsaluga5062]

Steve Hanke says a recession is "baked in the cake" due to a big drop in the money supply. Do you care to comment on that since it opposes your views. Thanks.

[@SigFigNewton]

Data! Woooooo!

[@edgardoberlioz2168]

Apple AMZN Google Facebook

[@FOREX-MARKET07]

Gg