I live in Israel, and though I am not ultra-Orthodox, I work with them, and I give lectures to their college students about patents & intellectual property. Zeihan’s description of them today is correct, but he does not understand them, and has not correctly identified the trend. More of them than ever before are serving in the army, studying in college, and going into high-tech. Not enough of them, the trend will take another decade, but it is happening. Plus they are people who do things 100%, not by half-measure. As for the Saudi-Israeli alliance, it is not as firm as portrayed here, but if there is such an alliance, it will defeat Iran. Larry M. Goldstein
His first bit made no sense, I don’t know the details but if you are subsiding studies on the Tora and people are actually becoming more religious AND growing families it shouldn’t be obvious, as he tells his prediction, that they will be unproductive.
PAY ATTENTION YOU ALL!!....He said last week he wouldn't be creating new videos for a while but would be putting out pre-recorded videos over Christmas
He also said “not a single 3rd country is likely to get involved” in the Israel Hamas war. He said this AFTER the US was sending or had already sent an aircraft carrier strike group to the region.
I love that wording ,"paid to study the Torah and as a result they have a lot of kids", because it leaves open what is the actual driver here. Other countries have tried paying their citizens to have more kids and with 0 success across the board. Instead, if people study texts all day that tell them to "be fruitful and multiply" they might just do that.
Or just make it economically viable to have kids. When you look at how much middl class people make and how much their kids cost, it is pretty obvious why populations are declining.
@@krisspkriss Economics has nothing to do with it. Look who has many children... The ugly truth is the education of women directly impacts the number of kids, not economics😅
@@iulianhodorog9979 It's all connected but it is true that poor people have more kids, I come from a family of 6 kids and we were dirt poor, I honestly don't understand it, I have 1 child myself and I would like to have more but it would way too expensive and stressful and ideally I would like a stay home wife but I can't afford it so I guess 1 kid it is 😅
From everything I've read (and I went to school in the Middle East) the Saudi family (a Bedouin nomadic family) was not very religious. However, when Iran (also quite secular back then) overthrew the Shaw in 1979 the Saudi family was spooked and decided to go hard right ultra-religious out of pragmatism. My friend worked for an oil company and lived in Saudi Arabia for years and he said the Saudi's would often wear western clothes and drink alcohol (forbidden by Islam) on the flight home but once they got the warning from the captain that they would be landing soon, they suddenly put on their traditional clothing and away with the alcohol. It's all for show for the masses. That means they are pragmatic...only want to stay in power...religion is a tool for power...and they will even align with the Jews in Israel if they can benefit.
I've noticed that about all religions. Most of the followers are just doing it for selfish reasons. Most of the leaders know it's a scam to get money/power. My wife has been Muslim her whole life, very religious, but has no clue what Muhammad or Jesus actually said. All she knows is DON'T EAT PORK!!!
The House of Saud is certainly not the first and will not be the last to use the extreme right with extreme religious views to stay in power. These extreme right power grabs always mean subjugation of women…. Perpetually pregnant in long dresses delegated to the home totally powerless and subject to sometimes extreme cruelty by their husbands. It is so so sad but that is the way it’s going in so many countries.
Either that was filmed last Summer or Colorado is even better than portrayed by John Denver. Green and warm - nice. Some people sit and think while some people just sit. Some people just walk, but Peter walks and thinks. There is the world of geopolitics and the world of nature. Nature will still be here long after these geopolitical issues have faded away.
Plenty of leaves on the trees here yes. But it often hits 60 in December and February. Today it was nice enough to golf in a tee shirt in Denver. But yeah, definitely no leaves on the trees.
He must have recorded this well before the Hamas war since Turkey is currently fit to be tied with Israel over it. Also, it's way too sunny and warm looking in the video for it to be recent.
I know what I see and the last several videos he did from Colorado hiking trails were quite a bit snowier than that and Peter was dressed a lot warmer.@@Nalololol
Peter put out a video about 8 to 10 days ago, announcing that he was preparing in advance a little series of videos to give his subscribers some material to check out every day while he is taking a break over the holiday season. Some of these videos may be a bit recycled, I am not sure, but I am enjoying them.
Was this filmed before the Hamas attack? It changed pretty close to everything in the region and at the very least put a lot of those potential alliances on pause.
@@arielmizrahi6359 "alliance" is a massive exaggeration. It's an agreement for the US to prop up the regime in exchange for the regime keeping the oil flowing. Saudi Arabia has joined BRICS and is patching up relations with Iran. That's a massive swing away from the US no matter how you try to spin it. If by alliance you mean the Saudis still want to buy US weapons then yes, that's still true.
Peter, I've been following your position regarding an American withdrawal from its current international obligations for quite some time, however, it would appear to be overstated given the United States' current level of commitment to Israel vis a vis the matter in Gaza. While the United States need not rely on oil from the Near East, its allies in Europe do rely on it and therefore I do not see an American withdrawal anytime soon, but rather only a modification to reflect the current realities of the day. No doubt, those pushing for a "multi-polar New World Order" system (Putin's words) would love to see a post-American world order, but I do not see it happening. One of the chief architects of this multi-polar new world order system, Henry Kissinger, is dead, and the others are greying out. Even in the Far East, the United States has not reduced but expanded its military footprint via new bases in the Philippines. Where is the American withdrawal?
Peter overstates things with unwarranted confidence common to Millennials who are instant experts and oracles after 1 minute reading Google Search results. IMO, the rise and fall of empires in history is a fair indication that the US shall go the way of all others before it. If you can get people on board with that, then current events often fit nicely, and his social media followers will gush about how A-maaaazing he is. When he get things wrong and people start seeing through the gig he's got going, the knives come out in his defense. Be like criticizing Trump at a MAGA rally.
Actually he is wrong about many things if you look at past video. American commitment will decrease. Yes. But in Europe. European economies are stagnating and is also freeloading on US while not contributing enough to US interest. That is competing with or restraining china. Israel is absolutely essential for US to maintain a footprint in that region. Taiwan will not fall for the foreseeable future too. Asian partnerships are absolutely vital since they are the ones competing and pushing back on china. Not Europe. Core strategic interest is not something US will abandon. All these people saying "looking inwardly" or "focusing on America" don't get the fact that all those actions ARE focusing on America. Multipolar world will happen. That is a guarantee. While superpower status may cease to exist US doesn't want china to get that status either. US wants to be the big pole. Or the pole bigger than china.
Well, actually, there are lots of religious soldiers fighting right now in Gaza, Judea and Samaria. There are also thousands of ultra religious who have volunteered to serve. Israeli community is flexible, resilient and homogeneous at core to rapidly change
I also think that the usual way of making predictions, namely to continue trends into the future, doesn't work well with a society as adaptable as Israel. The Israel security advisor Dan Schueftan told a nice joke in this context: Given the sinful nature of humans, the Lord decides to wipe them out by another flood. The pope, an Islamic sheikh, and a rabbi simultaneously have a vision about this coming catastrophe 14 days ahead. The pope and the whole church start intensive praying trying to implore God to change His mind. The Islamic sheikh gives a speech saying that this is all the oppressive west's fault, nothing can or should be done about it and that Muslims are once more only the innocent victims of it all. The rabbi speaks about his vision and says, "now we've got two weeks to learn how to live underwater! Let's get going!"
Judea and Samaria do not exist. The Ashkenazis will return to Khazaria. Oh they can't because the fake Jew Zelenksy has started a war with the fake Jew Putin. A disagreable dilemma from the diabolics of the Synagogue of Satan...
As an Israeli it's so rare to find a non-local geopolitical commentator who has even the most rudimentary grasp of what's going on here on the ground. Your channel is fantastic!! Hope to hear you on JRE sometime. Your videos are an absolute gem
Peter, After watching you videos regularly and reading your books, my question is this: If American isolationism is going to be the reality of the 21st century, where does that leave the dollar? Despite the American geopolitical advantages, we also enjoy currency hegemony. Doesn't isolationism equat to the death of the dollar as the world reserve currency, and if so - what does that mean for the way of life in the US post Pax Americana?
1. as an Israeli, that social security for ultra orthodox is extremely painful, but in the end - it does serve its purpose: Its not that much of money (3-5% of yearly budget) and it both keeps them off the street (zero crime in their neighborhoods), allows them to bring children (demographics do not collapse; but then again - also secular jews bring more than 2.1 children in Israel) and populate the periphery of Israel, it makes sure they do not compete with secular jews on jobs. BTW, even in 2060, based on current demographic trends, the ultra orthodox won't be more than 30% of the country population. 2. In the world of drones, missiles and cybersecurity, less troops doesn't mean weaker army.
It sounds like Israel has the same welfare that the US has. As an unemployed man supporting a wife and 2 kids I would get $1300/mo for rent, $600/mo for food, $50/mo for gas and toiletries, free diapers, free food bank food, free dental/medical/therapy, free car seats, free baby formula, $833/mo TANF for 5 years... So I could just go study religion and crank out kids if I wanted to. Then there's all the free stuff from the churches, toys for tots, etc. Wait, so why do we have so many homeless people and low fertility rate?
Drones and other means of hybrid warfare are no longer a monopoly of Tel Aviv. Times have changed. And the most important aspect was the narrative in the west, which is also no longer a given seeing one extreme administration after the other there. The public needs to have a clear "good vs bad", but with the disastrous human rights reports mounting up this is no longer any framing that you can sell to them. Without billions of dollars of aid and ammunition here + some more billions of dollars as bribes to Jordan and Egypt, this is not sustainable.
The support of the orthodox lifestyle trades short term political peace for a long term collapse of the system economically, and a massive change in the country's character socially. I would compare it to Western nations bringing and subsidising millions of migrants. Just because the orthodox are Jews doesn't mean their way of life isn't foreign and disruptive to the core of the nation.
Boy, he kept this one in the bag a long time. That looks like about May or June. These days Colorado has no leaves on trees and there is snow in the ground in the metro area, let alone the mountains or foothills where he is at.
Peter, I enjoy your discussions. Have you given thought to doing a Q&A on some of the points your critics state that some of the things you have discussed have not come to pass?
Hi Peter, I just was deployed to Saudi. The US still controls all of their national defense and military training. As well as weapons systems..like air defense. Which only US personal know how to operate. The US has increased in presence since the Biden administration. And was still high during the Trump. I do not see that changing within the next 20 years. We also have plans to be a power in th3 mildew east for the next 50 years at a min. Especially with Jordan becoming the new Kuwait (made base model being built). I don't think u got this one right. US ain't going anywhere no matter who the future President will be. But if your saying this could happen or what would happen if the US leaves I can see that. But what it looks like is less US troops in some areas and higher troops in targeted areas. Supporting the nation our troops are in with providing the bodies under US commands. That's most likely the future.
Wrong! In 5 years Saudi will be a radioactive desert. Oil wealth is useless in smouldering ruins but this requires a level of intelligence the stupidly selfish Gulf Arabs do not have.
Bad revelation. If US is SA air defence then because those air defence have let through a lot of Iranian drones and had SA oil plant destroyed - US is not ready for modern war
Many other base assumptions Peter makes are also wrong. For example, Jordan is completely dependent on Israel since Israel is the only reason the Jordan's still exist. If Israel stops supplying water to Jordan, this will immediately destroy Jordan as a state. They have absolutely no alternatives. Another example: The bigger the orthodox jewish population gets, the bigger portion of them both serve in the military and participate in the labor force. Right now 65% of them are working, and it increases stadily in the past 20 years. Moreover, as soon as the goverment cannot support them, it won't, and they will be forced to work. Due to the latest events, there is a boost in military service applications among this population. Another examole: the most growing population in israel is not the orthidox jewish, but the religius jewish nationalists. And they serve in the military more than anyone else. Also, they are working just as the secular population. But the biggest wrong assumption is that parameters don't affect each other. Every parameter continues to remain constant. If right now religious people don't work in Israel, Peter assumes they never will. Well, everywhere outside of Israel, these orthodox jews are all working. The only reason they don't in Israel, is that the goverment allows them by paying them. As soon as the goverment cuts these subsidies, as happend in the early 2000s, their will to work will spike. Same with military service. Where there is a need, there is a will. Linear extrapolation does not work in such predictions.
@@raphaelsasson9726 Bro, Peter is basically a UA-camr nowadays. And he definitely learned that the more radical/outrageous the content is, the more views. His conclusions are usually a 101 masterclass on Euler diagrams. In other words, he might identify many facts correctly, however his conclusions are usually way off (aka the collapse of China, the collapse of Germany, de impending retirement of USA from global stage, so on and so forth). I listen to his videos while cooking or whatever only for the factual info, 'cause the conclusions are usually laughable.
Many ultra-Orthodox women in Israel DO work while their husbands "work" as rabbis and yeshiva teachers. They start businesses, open stores, operate childcare centers, etc. It's quite common. And even among men, the younger generation is increasingly joining the army and becoming involved in tech and startups. The situation will look very different in another generation or two.
I don't think people unfamiliar with Jewish history in the modern era quite appreciate the potential (and I'd say very likely) change in the pace of change.
Here's another factor in Israel. The tensions this year regarding the changes the pm was trying to make in the government brought protests all over and the military was refusing to serve. Therefore, the people are not going to stand for their fundamentalist faction getting the perks without any responsibility to serve in the military. Nor are they going to be stand for seeing them control policy.
As an Israeli - I am not entirely on board with your assessments here Peter: 1) There are changes happening within the Orthodox Jewish population in Israel - for instance - many women are studying and working - including in the Israeli Defense Industrial complex. Also, since October 7th, thousands of Orthodox Jewish men have asked to be drafted in the IDF - this marks a remarkable change in viewpoint and could result in an agreed upon solution to the issue of who carries the brunt of the burden regarding military service, work and taxation and more. Politically of course - this is a potential powder keg. 2) The United states not interested in the Middle East?! I guess this series is about a hypothetical scenario of this happening but the United States is very much interested in the Middle East and the Abraham accords - especially what was supposed to happen in September (the signing of a normalization treaty between Israel and Saudi Arabia and the future opening of a major economic corridor between India, the Middle East aka Israel and Saudi Arabia, and Europe). This is most likely what led to the Hamas attack (likely orchestrated by Iran) and the Houthi and Hezbollah attacks. 3) One of the painful realizations now in Israel (among many painful realizations) is that it cannot count forever on US assistance. Without it - Israel not only has a problem with ammunition and weapons supplies but mainly - at the United Nations Security council. The first issue it will most likely remedy to an extent to be more self sufficient and manufacture its own ammunition. The second issue - hard to see any country with a Veto at the UN Security Council stepping in on behalf of Israel. This is a big problem which could in the future lead to a weapons embargo on Israel (only strengthens the 1st point - that Israel has to rely on itself).
@@minzblatt I see your point but well, there were delays and all kinds of issues with the agreement - no one really knows if Hamas/Iran/Putin were set on a date or not. October 7th happens to be Putin's Birthday which could be a coincidence (or not). Iran also dismisses the accusation that it orchestrated the October 7th massacre. In some ways, Hamas may have actually attacked prematurely since there are indications that Hezbollah was planning a joint attack from both fronts. Hamas botched this up. Again, we don't have all the information, maybe if some top Hamas leader is captured by the IDF - Israel can wrest more info out of him.
"Why did I decide to do this on the uphill part?" Lol you're always fun Peter cause you still take time to not be a seemingly all knowing robot and show us you're still human. Happy New Year and looking forward to more videos as always :)
David Grün Golda Mabovitch Jabotinski Netanyahu Avigdor Lieberman Weizmann are not genetically Semitic. Arabs and middle Eastern jews are genetically Semitic people Semitic people are from africa and arab island Aljazirah alarabiyah Arabs are Semitic people Arabic is semitic language Who are anti Semitic here??? David Grün Golda Mabovitch Jabotinski Netanyahu Avigdor Lieberman Weizmann etc. are Stop stealing Palestinians lands Stop holocausting Palestinians arabs Semitic people Have a ❤heart❤please❤
The Post-American World is a non-fiction book by American journalist Fareed Zakaria. From 2008! The book shares another thing in common with Peter - it has no interest in the United States ending, or splitting up, or civil war, or not being a super-power, or not being the only super-power. In only discusses a slight reversion to the mean where the country still exists in its current form, but is less dominant and more insular. Not exactly what I'd picture as post-American or after America. Probably throwing this comment on the wrong video, but meh
Just came across your channel. Interesting angle. Great to see there are still some intelligent self-reflecting Americans out there. Your type is seriously under represented here in the rest of world.
There was a king named Herod who was so afraid to have power taken away from him that he ordered the killing of all babies under 2years of age in his domain, apparently also killed 2 of his own children and a wife...I am not sure if he is/was the same that had John the Baptist killed and beheaded...in any case, he was also held in high regard by the Roman Emperor for his loyal service, and...also a great builder of his times...a few decades after his time, the same Roman Empire that held that King bb in high regard moved into the Province he reigned over and destroyed his city and temple, eventually triggering the Jewish diaspora...Today, mr Nutty a'who? Seems to be equally "appreciated" and "held in high regard" by the major power of our era's leader...and history, including the killing of babies and his very own people (the kings in question) seems to be happening again...Could that be a clear sign of future events in the region?...I'd say it looks like it...😶🌫️
Not enough. Sometimes 1+1 is not 2 but 0, like in this example. Zeihan did 2 or 3 takes before on the whole Saudi deal before, which is why most of us are wondering why he is now just omitting the critical part of that deal. Saudi basically promised to cooperate with the little nation to secure military commitments from the US against Iran. The deal was never just about cooperation with the little nation, which they already have behind closed doors. It was always about US military assurances and a continuing presence in the Golf, which the US public is less and less in favor of since the sh.shows of Afg, Iraq and Syria.
Not to mention the feudal theocracy movements the Saudis have been allowing support for, developing a Muslim World with a hair trigger against America (culminating in 9/11) but ignore even more blatant anti-Muslim campaigns from China, Burma, Serbia, etc.
This brings up a question: Would India play a role in the Gulf at all? They seem relatively proximate. Would they pick a side or kind of play both sides against each other?
Question is what has India do gain from just a risky maneuver? You either have enough to gain from saving the stability there or the opposite. Either way, entering that arena has risks which is currently only US and Russia are able to take. Russia doesn't. An for US this isn't profitable enough.
@@minzblatt It was more thinking having access to Oil for India might be beneficial. But I guess since they are so close they could just hold the bargaining chips when it comes to purchasing Oil and get the good deals, which they kind of are doing already.
India will not interfere in Arabic world dynamics. We want stability and security and no unwanted negative attention from Islamic countries. We have had enough problems from the Islamic neighbour and from within in this regard. Somehow Modi government has had maintained positive progressive relationships with UAE and Saudis.
Would you stop with this. It's a dude walking in the forest talking for 4 minutes. There is content on UA-cam that took hundreds of not thousands of hours to create and you're gushing about a "shower thoughts" video.
Talking about an Israeli-Saudi partnership is beyond farcical. You would have to know literally nothing about the region, current or past history, to believe this nonsense.
@@dbearden3232 Gawd, thank you for the reality check. The culty 'guru' vibe in this guy's comment section is creepy. He's got his rap down, so he just tweaks it when he's wrong, and people still gush like teenage girls. It's like a Trump rally, but with douchey Millennial man buns instead of red MAGA hats.
@@dbearden3232have you even looked into Peter Zeihan’s credentials? He’s not just some random guy walking in the mountains. He’s got his own Wikipedia page. Governments and Fortune 500 companies pay to hear what he has to say.
"Armenians aren''t good Christians..." Peter Zeihan This is what one of the people whom I have followed and learned from. Peter is all about the truth ,and every one whould know the TRUTH. Peter, you need to make a video and explain why you said this. Thank you.
@@dfrcj omg lets start: Yemen- over 10000 killed since the start of the civil war. Syria- over 10000 killed since the start of the civil war. Chemical weapons have been used against civilian population. Ethnic cleansing of Yazidi christians Saudia- Multiple human rights violation in regard to human trafficking and state sanctioned assasisination on forge in soil. Turkey- ongoing oppression and ethnic cleansing of multiple ethnic minorities most specifically the Kurds. Egypt- ongoing suppression and oppression of Coptic christian minority. That's just from the top of my head. Btw- everyone of these countries have a "stellar" record of execution of LGBT civilians
Peter never mentions the sexual blackmail operations run by a certain state who targets the billionare donor class and politicians of a certain superpower. That throws the calculation off the rails.
Peter gives “approved” info, people like to hear him because even what people think is doomsday, is still safe and palatable for the crowd. The things that seem like are really going on, an inversion of morality and western civilization often cause heads in the sand, real quick.
Yes, Epstein almost surely had connections in the Mossad. It hasn’t been proven beyond a doubt but it makes sense when you put a few of the pieces together. The question is: who has replaced him?
Friends and allies of Jeffrey E. the "Financier" are actually , physically cancelling people in the region . Sorry for the previous lack of clarity. Some people understood it anyway. Maybe Peter thinks it's a impossible to say it even with filters. But also too obvious to not talk about the region at all. I don't see the blackmailed class of the superpower voluntarily withdrawing from the region. Especially now with the warning shot in the media. Exposing their legislative assembly as a gay porn set. @Muzakman37 @@kkostadinof
God's plan was given to the prophets in the Old Testament, in the Bible. So the ending was foretold thousands of years ago and is there for us to read. Appreciate your insight though !! Happy New Year Peter !!
Now these asiatic Turkic Khazars are thinking they are God’s chosen ones and are trying to expedite God’s plan thinking they will be saved, they won’t.
The biggest surprise in the Gaza war is the amount of participation of the Haredi population. Some have volunteered into the army and a lot of national service. The biggest group that is growing is the religious zionist faction, and they have lots of children who serve in the army they get a high-level education and participate fully, including women in the economy. Peter, you should speak to Professor Pasig from Bar Ilan University. He has a different view of Israel's future. Demographics predict that by the end of this century, there will be 24 million in the country, with 20 million who are jewish.
I'll be interested in a video on Pakistan in the post-American world. Without foreign aid, I imagine the country would very quickly collapse and be overrun by terrorists and various militant groups. Or an extreme martial law might be imposed to keep the country running. Pakistan does have an educated and stable middle class and a thriving diaspora that seems to do well even during upheaval in the more remote parts of the country.
was just watching latest video (after this one) from zeihan, on India assassins in Canada and USA. then it was unavailable to continue watching and removed from my history also. Interesting to see if it comes back and or if this post stays
1 Hour ago "On my home trail in Colorado" ? Did spring/summer arrive & no one told me ? I'm confused Peter :) Brought some heat from the Gaza to melt all that Colorado snow ?
It has a stable economy that is unlike most nations around not dependent on selling raw commodities such as oil which it doesn't have in amounts worth mentioning. In the last couple decades however it suffered from bad financial policies, corruption and mismanagement, which made this growth rocky to say the least. Btw. the Turkish domestic military industry is a by-product of the US imposed sanctions on Turkey after the Cyprus war in 1974 and Turks are very proud of this fact to this day with the recent renewal of sanctions linked to 5th Gen fighter jets. 2025 will be the 50th anniversary of ASELSAN, which is basically where it all started. And if we're lucky we will see the maiden flight of the first domestic fighter jet tomorrow. With a booming drone tech industry both in air and on sea (USVs), this will ultimately guarantee them superiority over most of their neighbours for the foreseeable future.
actually, the answer is simple: borrowing. In a globalized world that has low inflation and low interest rates, Turkey has based the vast majority of its econimy on cheap forign caoital borrowing. in the past 2 years however, the Trkish economy is going through a serious crisis, and is in risk of collapsing. They are fighting hyoer inflation, and low economic activity. This is due to higher interest rates worldwide, which made borrowing much more expensive.
“They have plundered the world, stripping naked the land in their hunger… they are driven by greed, if their enemy be rich; by ambition, if poor… They ravage, they slaughter, they seize by false pretenses, and all of this they hail as the construction of empire. And when in their wake nothing remains but a desert, they call that peace.” ― Tacitus, The Agricola and The Germania
Here's how the demographic argument about Israel's reduced power doesn't pan out: The secular birthrate is 2.2, above replacement levels, so, regardless of the seculars losing demographic dominance in the broader society, as of now they retain the absolute population trend to continue their levels of military and research contribution.
Russia is too far away, but the UK isn't? Also, I think the identity of the guarantor has less to do with proximity (the USA is kind of far away, but that hasn't stopped us in the past) and more to do with ability & desire to be that guarantor.
This video was posted today yet it completely ignores the Palestinian problem (and the extreme instability politics). The current waging war shows just how vulnerable Israel is. It can hardly deal with the hamas, and the war with with the hizbolla hasn't even started. Without the US Israel will not be able to manage the risks, especially considering the extreme mismanagement.
At under eight minutes, this video is clearly intended as a a high-level narrative about Israel's need for regional security partners for exactly the reasons you mentioned. There's neither the space nor arguably the need to delve into conflicts du jour of which followers of the situation are already aware.
Not going to say there isn't instability, or that Israel is vulnerable, but I will say Israel comes together even harder when fighting the outside world, and that doesn't have to involve America, just like it didn't in 1948, 1956, until 1967. You can paint a picture of Israeli weakness, but don't go too deeply down the wishful thinking rabbit hole.
Israel has dealt with much larger threats than Hamas. Be sure that Israel can deal with Hamas + Hezbollah together (It's not an opinion but based on historical wars)
@@nbNJ90 there's no comparison - it was over 50 years ago and we fought mediocre armies - not guerrilla fighters in urban environment. We can't win this war simply because Bibi intentionally did not define what are the objectives. Hamas won't be eliminated, the hostages won't be returned and we just isolated ourselves for nothing.
@@OrelBenShamay based on what? The attrition war of 69? The two botched Lebanon wars? The endless pointless operations in gaza in the past 20 years that only strengthen hamas? The belief in the Idf as invincible simply didn't stand the test, because it is given impossible missions by idiotic leaders in
Peter is having a Christmas vacation. He's been building up a backlog of videos on the same theme, recorded across the year, to release over the Christmas holidays in his absence.
Peter, last month Saudi Arabia wanted the USA to give them the same type of security they give to Israel. What would happen with that? The Security is what they are looking for. The USA gives $6.5 million a year to Israel. I always wondered why that amount goes up every year! Give it to the British, they started all this.
USA gives 4.2 billion USD to Israel and Egypt since the 1982 peace treaty. For Israel, it is a nice bonus but no longer a large crutch it depends on. A small yet growing part of Israel understands this and the continued cost of this aid being the dependence on the US administration and US military products. If this aid would be reduced or stopped, Israel would be able to spend elsewhere, something Europe and Russia or CHINA would strive to win.
GOOD point Cindy,the US gets a lot of blame that should be directed to the UK and the "Sun never sets on the British empire" era. Even to include China's hostility at correcting the "Century of Humiliation",which seems to get transferred to the US.
Has anyone here actually been to Israel?Israel is one of my favorite places,dont believe everything you see on CNN!Trust me if anyone went to gaza you would last a hour,and try to get into Israel.Gaza before Oct 7 was alot nicer than alot of middle eastern countries!The Israeli people have built a powerhouse!All the nations around want to be friends with Israel.Where is one country to actually help the people of gaza?@@shuki1
I have NEVER felt like Bibi .... and I don't want to feel like Bibi, thank you very much. If he has a shred of humanity, the guilt must be overwhelming.
@@terryhoath1983 Of couse you not alone! Lack of one's capicity of judgement (stupidity) is part of human condition and even happenes to high IQ people.
Where's this conspiratorial thinking coming from? His governments have fallen a number of times, which has always led to elections, and when he didn't win afterwards, he left the Prime Minister's residence.
@olterigo He is facing criminal charges once he is out of power. He caused nationwide protests when he tried to pass a get out of jail free card. Now, he has committed to a decade+ long counter insurgency in Gaza
The book of Judges tells of one cycle that Israel experienced a number of times in its first centuries after spending 40 years wandering in the desert: God would bless Israel. Israel would start out thanking God for the blessings. But as time went on Israel would take God's blessings for granted. So God would allow Israel to be conquered. After awhile, Israel would cry out to God. God would then provide a new hero to deliver Israel and the cycle would begin over again. At this point, is Israel trying to fight their current war in their own strength or are they looking to God for victory? What will it take to change this? When you look through Israel's history, do the alliances that Israel committed, to work out for them? What will happen in the future?
Europe will be disinterested helping Israel due to the fact that the Muslim influx in European nations to such an extent, that the political processes will need to involve and actually appease the Muslim interest. In every case, Israel will need to be self sufficient and can still rely on the USA for at least another 20 years
@@NorthForkFisherman no, you could say it’s been going on since our inception, there def seems to be multi levels of it, post ww2 being significant. But I do believe we’re close to a tipping point.
@@Crumbsoftotailtariansim Well yes, we're dangerously close to falling into a fascist, christian-nationalist state. Hell, it' s been that way since the late 1920s and early '30s. But the demographics of the nation have significantly changed and despite MSM seeming to revel in the carnage, social media is still able to provide itself as a tool as a means of organization and resistance. And despite all the bloody-minded rhetoric on the right, we're making progress while all the MAGA does is talk. And that talk is being monitored and if needed, can be acted on. It's when people are quiet that you have to be worried.
@@NorthForkFisherman confusion and contradiction, no honest conversation pertaining to Covid policies and Covid vaccine efficacy or ethicacy. Collapse of fundamental truths, (men cannot become women.). Constant normalization of very illogical and inconsistent foundational western civilizational truths, accompanied with acting like a person in the White House is making decisions when often he can barely walk or speak. Just some examples. Marxist and postmodern principles saturating the institutions are not sustainable, of course that’s the plan.
It's amazing to me that a 10 y old wants to be a dentist, goes after that goal, and after 25 year achieve that goal. Yet our "mature and experienced" politicians cannot "see, set, and achieve" even a medium term goal !!
wrong. 100% wrong. i couldn't disagree more. if this was released 2 months ago i could maybe get behind it. before oct 7 saudi and isreal were in fact normalizing relations. since oct 7 and the invasion and genocide in gaza there is 0% the saudi government would or even could align with them, let alone be a protector of them.
@zeihan on geopolitics , you never talked about the recent China brokered peace deal between Saudi and Iran . If the plan was a fight for dominance why did the deal happen.
The was to restore diplomatic relations that were severed in 2016. One of the litmus tests for the Saudis was that Iran stop arming the Houthis in Yemen. How is that going?
Second blunder video in a row - first a out-of-touch take on the Germany military rising, then a video on the middle east half a year old pulling out talking points completely moot since Oct 7th. Wtf is going on?
Zeihan contended that Israel needs to identify regional partners to ensure it's national security. I do not understand how October 7th rendered moot this strategic objective. If anything, it would emphasize the necessity for regional partners.
@@marshallartz3194 It doesn't render that strategic objective moot, just the analysis of the most important available partners. It also puts into question his assertion that the US will retreat from the space in the foreseeable future.
Apparently, you are not aware of the definition of genocide. The Palestinian population or culture aren't about to disappear. Rather, their population continues to grow at well above replacement rate and their culture of suicide bombings and rocket attacks are well established and vibrant!
Seeing as the last of the holocaust survivors were infants at the time and are now 75+yrs old... sympathy for Jews is running out quickly in light of what's happening in Gaza. How does that saying go? You become what you hate...
I imagine I missed a video. Did Zeihan make a prediction as to when this post America world will come to be? With regards to the growing charedi population. They are as a collective moving towards national pride and involvement. Since October 7 close to 500 men with wives, kids and careers joined the IDF. Completely voluntarily if I may add. There is plenty of room for improvement but I am not worried about that portion of this segment.
Peter talks a lot about how the US is now an oil exporter so we no longer have an interest in securing the oil in the middle east. Then he also talks a lot about how China can no longer be the world's manufacturer and so we're turning to other countries and manufacturing at home in combination with Latin America. Then he also talks about the collapse of Russia(as a superpower) which makes NATO kind of pointless. This is what "post America" means and the timelines vary by region and accelerators like war, population collapse, uprisings, etc.
America's dominance has been due to the dollar as well as it's guarantee of security for international trade. If America fails to secure the Red Sea against the Houthis, America will lose its trust with other nations and people will stop using the dollar for trade standards.
@@m.deadly5952 No, they do not. We have plenty of stories of saudi employes taking away the passports of workers. And without that passport, they can not leave the country. So, how about you cut out the bullshit you are spreading?
When we look at Iran, we think Persia and Shiite. That's not wrong, but the majority of the ruling class is from one Turkish tribe or another. They don't flaunt it, but it's a significant part of how things are done. Another factor is Erdogan's almost messianic drive to regain guardianship of Mecca and Medina. There's your Turkish wildcard answer.
No such stance from Erdogan on Mecca and Medina I ever heard of. He is fully aware of the limits of current Turkish military capabilities, which is why Iraq and Syria are much more important regions than the Hejaz. With Iran there is ongoing competition about the southern Caucasus. With Saudi there is no competition whatsoever, but no real alliance can be formed either since this would only be possible if Turks would call the shots in this alliance, which is currently not palatable for the House Saud. China is the only player that can change the equation, but they will likely be blocked by other nations like the US to play a meaningful role.
Yes, it's staggering how often he is right. You must be an expert at cherry-picking his statements. You are probably the type of person who does this with every Internet opinion-maker. Now, if you posted a meticulously researched breakdown of his predictions (and btw, he rarely makes specific predictions, he just points us in the general direction of LIKELIHOOD) and compared them with the actual outcomes, we might take you seriously. Otherwise, you're just a comedian.
Brilliant analysis, as always. However, without the US, Israel will cease to exist as a world powerhouse regardless of the Saudis imo. As an American, I'm in full favor of pulling aid to foreign entities until OUR borders are secure.
@@zee9709 The vast majority of Americans are not Jewish. If American Jews are concerned about Israel, they can hop on a plane any time. The rest of us don't support joining a fight that isn't ours. Same goes for Ukraine.
So the US gives 2 billion dollars of taxpayer money for another country to financially support their people in not working but studying the torah? I'd prefer healthcare for my own people with my own tax dollars.
Of course you would, but unfortunately there is disproportionate amount of representation in Congress by literal Jewish ancestry who make the decision in the first place.
@@Mcfunface , true. I am not against Israel or Jews or anybody for that matter, I just think we spend way to much on helping people outside of the US when the people here need way more than we get.
Actually in Colorado we use hiking to replace the words "climbing a mountain". The continental divide and Rocky Mountains run right through the middle of the state. When we get to the foothills we call it walking and when we get to the plains we call it strolling.
I personally believe that the Israeli-US partnership is very strong. Even without AIPAC. The Israeli-Saudi partnership is mostly via the Intelligence services, so most of their populaces are "blissfully?" Unaware unless they are with the Saudi Mukhabarat or the Israeli equivalent. As with anything in the middle east, this is a very complicated issue. I believe that Peter may underestimate the intelligence of his audience, and perhaps may have OVER-simplified this normally complex issue.
He is also underestimating the Arab street and the 2nd pillar of Saudi rule, which is the clerical Wahabbi side. They are tolerating MBS's maneuvering for now, but it's a growing population with an increasingly religious youth. Enough reason why this deal was and will be a death sentence for any leader in the Middle East. Any damage to their existing oil based economies will lead to more cuts on the subsidies of these non-working citizens. They already started with taxing them a few years ago. They will need to keep them blissfully unaware or else this will quickly be a powder keg waiting to be lit up by Iran.
The big question is this. Is America (Will America be) DISinterested or UN/NOT interested ? Not quite the same thing. Peter doesn't seem to understand China. If the crunch comes, BECAUSE IT HAS GOT ITS' POPULATION UNDER CONTROL, China has all the food and all the energy that it needs. There are many keys to the Chinese economic miracle but birth rate reduction was absolutely vital .... 37,000,000 Americans living in abject poverty and that poverty concentrated among the breeders. Children do not sow, neither do they reap. They merely consume.As most American are a bit squeamish about child labour, children are parasites upon the economy. We are right to be amazed at the Chinese economic miracle. We also have reason to fear China. What will the American politicians do if China seizes Taiwan ? What if China ignores Taiwan seeing it as too much of a porcupine for the time being and goes for the Philippines. Failure to support the Philippines will be about as stupid as the current failure to support Ukraine adequately. What if, because of American stupidity, the newly gung-ho Russians take over Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan and then take a nibble at a few Aleutians ?.... What when the Chinese come sniffing around Wake Island ? Americans should understand that if it had not been for Britain and France holding out against Nazism for 9 months and then Britain alone for a further 17 months, long before December 1941, there would have been some brave Americans fighting a guerilla campaign in the Appalachians and Cascade Mountains, but, the USA east of the Mississippi would have been Amerika Ost, certain areas of New York having high barbed wire fences around them .... the USA to the West, would have had an unintelligible name. As we saw in December 1941, despite the efforts of Billy Mitchell, the USA did not have an air force worthy of the name and Pearl Harbour(Pearl Harbor) demonstrates military incompetence that was almost beyond belief. With regard to Ukraine, stupid and pig-ignorant Republicans are belly-aching about the cost but all the USA has done so far is open up some garden sheds on some military bases, dragged out some rusty lawnmowers and old scythes, sent this junk to Ukraine, to make room for far more sophisticated sit-on petrol lawnmowers and combine harvesters, the US high command unable to disguise their dribbling as they salivate over the latest John Deere, Mountfield and Mitsubishi kit. On the face of it, F16s seem pretty juicy but they are NOT exactly F35s .... are they ?
Today China is behaving like their past colonial occupiers, and wrongly thinking it is progress. China has announced they are our adversary, don't trust them buy locally.
China never reached a post-industrial society like Russia did. China is also dependent on foreign oil/coal/gas, food, fertilizer, and exports. Russia developed all their tech in-house and China just copied it. Russia exports oil/gas/weapons
I live in Israel, and though I am not ultra-Orthodox, I work with them, and I give lectures to their college students about patents & intellectual property. Zeihan’s description of them today is correct, but he does not understand them, and has not correctly identified the trend. More of them than ever before are serving in the army, studying in college, and going into high-tech. Not enough of them, the trend will take another decade, but it is happening. Plus they are people who do things 100%, not by half-measure. As for the Saudi-Israeli alliance, it is not as firm as portrayed here, but if there is such an alliance, it will defeat Iran. Larry M. Goldstein
The first question is how Israel surivives from recent conflict
Lol their won't be the arab street won't allow it.
His first bit made no sense, I don’t know the details but if you are subsiding studies on the Tora and people are actually becoming more religious AND growing families it shouldn’t be obvious, as he tells his prediction, that they will be unproductive.
@@JohnDoe0224easily.
@@Aliballerhow well that working out. At this point there aren't even any streets left in Gaza.
PAY ATTENTION YOU ALL!!....He said last week he wouldn't be creating new videos for a while but would be putting out pre-recorded videos over Christmas
He also said “not a single 3rd country is likely to get involved” in the Israel Hamas war. He said this AFTER the US was sending or had already sent an aircraft carrier strike group to the region.
hahaha get your meds dude@@oscararborist
I love that wording ,"paid to study the Torah and as a result they have a lot of kids",
because it leaves open what is the actual driver here. Other countries have tried paying their citizens to have more kids and with 0 success across the board.
Instead, if people study texts all day that tell them to "be fruitful and multiply" they might just do that.
😂👍
@@autogenesexactly my reply!
Or just make it economically viable to have kids. When you look at how much middl class people make and how much their kids cost, it is pretty obvious why populations are declining.
@@krisspkriss Economics has nothing to do with it. Look who has many children... The ugly truth is the education of women directly impacts the number of kids, not economics😅
@@iulianhodorog9979 It's all connected but it is true that poor people have more kids, I come from a family of 6 kids and we were dirt poor, I honestly don't understand it, I have 1 child myself and I would like to have more but it would way too expensive and stressful and ideally I would like a stay home wife but I can't afford it so I guess 1 kid it is 😅
From everything I've read (and I went to school in the Middle East) the Saudi family (a Bedouin nomadic family) was not very religious. However, when Iran (also quite secular back then) overthrew the Shaw in 1979 the Saudi family was spooked and decided to go hard right ultra-religious out of pragmatism. My friend worked for an oil company and lived in Saudi Arabia for years and he said the Saudi's would often wear western clothes and drink alcohol (forbidden by Islam) on the flight home but once they got the warning from the captain that they would be landing soon, they suddenly put on their traditional clothing and away with the alcohol. It's all for show for the masses. That means they are pragmatic...only want to stay in power...religion is a tool for power...and they will even align with the Jews in Israel if they can benefit.
I would say it has more to do with the seizure of the Grand Mosque in Mecca by Islamist extremists, also in 1979.
I've noticed that about all religions. Most of the followers are just doing it for selfish reasons. Most of the leaders know it's a scam to get money/power. My wife has been Muslim her whole life, very religious, but has no clue what Muhammad or Jesus actually said. All she knows is DON'T EAT PORK!!!
Turkey is too jive. They’re jive Turkeys.
A part of the Saudi family is not representative of the whole population
The House of Saud is certainly not the first and will not be the last to use the extreme right with extreme religious views to stay in power. These extreme right power grabs always mean subjugation of women…. Perpetually pregnant in long dresses delegated to the home totally powerless and subject to sometimes extreme cruelty by their husbands. It is so so sad but that is the way it’s going in so many countries.
Either that was filmed last Summer or Colorado is even better than portrayed by John Denver. Green and warm - nice. Some people sit and think while some people just sit. Some people just walk, but Peter walks and thinks. There is the world of geopolitics and the world of nature. Nature will still be here long after these geopolitical issues have faded away.
Yeah, this was filmed a while back.
I’m from Colorado and where he is there’s plenty of snow. This was definitely a few months ago.
Good observation.
Plenty of leaves on the trees here yes. But it often hits 60 in December and February.
Today it was nice enough to golf in a tee shirt in Denver. But yeah, definitely no leaves on the trees.
💯
still waiting for Peter meeting Big Foot on his wanderings
Bigfoot Demographics in a Post American World, by P. Zeihan.
All the bears out there tho
@@nobertstanel9428 And pumas.
@@fnordiumendures138 Good video for April fools :)
It's more likely to see Bigfoot than an accurate prediction here...
He must have recorded this well before the Hamas war since Turkey is currently fit to be tied with Israel over it. Also, it's way too sunny and warm looking in the video for it to be recent.
Do you know anything about colorado? Lol
@@Nalolololdo you know anything about biology? The trees and other flora were blooming and there were green leaves on deciduous trees.
I know what I see and the last several videos he did from Colorado hiking trails were quite a bit snowier than that and Peter was dressed a lot warmer.@@Nalololol
He made an intro video to this series noting it was recorded months ago, but to be released now during holiday season while he/his team take time off
Peter put out a video about 8 to 10 days ago, announcing that he was preparing in advance a little series of videos to give his subscribers some material to check out every day while he is taking a break over the holiday season. Some of these videos may be a bit recycled, I am not sure, but I am enjoying them.
The lack of snow & abundance of grass means this was filmed months ago. I hope a new book is coming out.
Peter is always at home, recording over a green screen. 😂
Not like New Zealand is in summertime you dolt.... American?
@@DurzoBlunts He said at the beginning of the video this is Colorado.
He said that his "After America" series was filmed in advance as preparation content for his month long break happening right now
Yall are a bunch of incorrect meteorologist.
Was this filmed before the Hamas attack? It changed pretty close to everything in the region and at the very least put a lot of those potential alliances on pause.
I think so, ya. He and his staff are on vacation for a bit so they pre-recorded a bunch of stuff
Yes, these clips were recorded over the course of this year so he had content to put up during the holidays.
Definitely, and this video is now totally obsolete.
@@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311 no it’s not. Everything from Saudis and UAE has signal led they intend for the alliance to continue
@@arielmizrahi6359 "alliance" is a massive exaggeration. It's an agreement for the US to prop up the regime in exchange for the regime keeping the oil flowing. Saudi Arabia has joined BRICS and is patching up relations with Iran. That's a massive swing away from the US no matter how you try to spin it. If by alliance you mean the Saudis still want to buy US weapons then yes, that's still true.
60% inflation in Turkey. Let that sink in.
Peter, I've been following your position regarding an American withdrawal from its current international obligations for quite some time, however, it would appear to be overstated given the United States' current level of commitment to Israel vis a vis the matter in Gaza. While the United States need not rely on oil from the Near East, its allies in Europe do rely on it and therefore I do not see an American withdrawal anytime soon, but rather only a modification to reflect the current realities of the day. No doubt, those pushing for a "multi-polar New World Order" system (Putin's words) would love to see a post-American world order, but I do not see it happening. One of the chief architects of this multi-polar new world order system, Henry Kissinger, is dead, and the others are greying out. Even in the Far East, the United States has not reduced but expanded its military footprint via new bases in the Philippines. Where is the American withdrawal?
Peter overstates things with unwarranted confidence common to Millennials who are instant experts and oracles after 1 minute reading Google Search results. IMO, the rise and fall of empires in history is a fair indication that the US shall go the way of all others before it. If you can get people on board with that, then current events often fit nicely, and his social media followers will gush about how A-maaaazing he is. When he get things wrong and people start seeing through the gig he's got going, the knives come out in his defense. Be like criticizing Trump at a MAGA rally.
Actually he is wrong about many things if you look at past video. American commitment will decrease. Yes. But in Europe. European economies are stagnating and is also freeloading on US while not contributing enough to US interest. That is competing with or restraining china.
Israel is absolutely essential for US to maintain a footprint in that region. Taiwan will not fall for the foreseeable future too. Asian partnerships are absolutely vital since they are the ones competing and pushing back on china. Not Europe.
Core strategic interest is not something US will abandon. All these people saying "looking inwardly" or "focusing on America" don't get the fact that all those actions ARE focusing on America.
Multipolar world will happen. That is a guarantee. While superpower status may cease to exist US doesn't want china to get that status either. US wants to be the big pole. Or the pole bigger than china.
Hey Peter sorry to hear about your back, hope you get well soon. Always find your analysis fascinating
Israel is already looking at forced conscription of that said religious section of the population.
Well, actually, there are lots of religious soldiers fighting right now in Gaza, Judea and Samaria. There are also thousands of ultra religious who have volunteered to serve. Israeli community is flexible, resilient and homogeneous at core to rapidly change
This is true, as an observer on the ground this is what I am seeing@@helenatenenbaum3580
@@helenatenenbaum3580 That religious population of Israel don't do any work. They just live off the government.
I also think that the usual way of making predictions, namely to continue trends into the future, doesn't work well with a society as adaptable as Israel.
The Israel security advisor Dan Schueftan told a nice joke in this context:
Given the sinful nature of humans, the Lord decides to wipe them out by another flood.
The pope, an Islamic sheikh, and a rabbi simultaneously have a vision about this coming catastrophe 14 days ahead.
The pope and the whole church start intensive praying trying to implore God to change His mind.
The Islamic sheikh gives a speech saying that this is all the oppressive west's fault, nothing can or should be done about it and that Muslims are once more only the innocent victims of it all.
The rabbi speaks about his vision and says, "now we've got two weeks to learn how to live underwater! Let's get going!"
Judea and Samaria do not exist. The Ashkenazis will return to Khazaria. Oh they can't because the fake Jew Zelenksy has started a war with the fake Jew Putin. A disagreable dilemma from the diabolics of the Synagogue of Satan...
What an interesting video to release in the post-October 7 world.
As an Israeli it's so rare to find a non-local geopolitical commentator who has even the most rudimentary grasp of what's going on here on the ground.
Your channel is fantastic!! Hope to hear you on JRE sometime.
Your videos are an absolute gem
Peter,
After watching you videos regularly and reading your books, my question is this:
If American isolationism is going to be the reality of the 21st century, where does that leave the dollar? Despite the American geopolitical advantages, we also enjoy currency hegemony.
Doesn't isolationism equat to the death of the dollar as the world reserve currency, and if so - what does that mean for the way of life in the US post Pax Americana?
Have you seen his video on the dollar from…. Last summer?? Maybe spring? (I’m sorry my sense of seasons for last year is a bit skewed!)
I have a feeling that this video wasn't shot on Christmas day.
It must have been recorded way before the Hamas attacks
Exactly, looks like spring, way before October 7…
Going from the script too, it seems to have been shot before the Israel-Hamas war.
Not an expert on global issues but my understanding is that this video was not about Hamas/Israel at all.
He clearly stated this series was shot ahead of time.
This is a great video. The inverse of this video would also be interesting. Would you make a video exploring the potential of America After Israel?
He did. He published 4 books on the subject. I highly recommend all of them to you.
@@markpukey8Books names or sources?
@@JagjitSingh-ec1gbGo to Google, search for "Zeihan Amazon" and you'll get links to all four.
Thanks for the pre-prepared material Peter. Happy Holidays.
1. as an Israeli, that social security for ultra orthodox is extremely painful, but in the end - it does serve its purpose: Its not that much of money (3-5% of yearly budget) and it both keeps them off the street (zero crime in their neighborhoods), allows them to bring children (demographics do not collapse; but then again - also secular jews bring more than 2.1 children in Israel) and populate the periphery of Israel, it makes sure they do not compete with secular jews on jobs. BTW, even in 2060, based on current demographic trends, the ultra orthodox won't be more than 30% of the country population.
2. In the world of drones, missiles and cybersecurity, less troops doesn't mean weaker army.
But it does mean uneven burden of KIA distribution onto different societal group. Also, drones and electronics did not help two months ago.
It sounds like Israel has the same welfare that the US has. As an unemployed man supporting a wife and 2 kids I would get $1300/mo for rent, $600/mo for food, $50/mo for gas and toiletries, free diapers, free food bank food, free dental/medical/therapy, free car seats, free baby formula, $833/mo TANF for 5 years... So I could just go study religion and crank out kids if I wanted to. Then there's all the free stuff from the churches, toys for tots, etc. Wait, so why do we have so many homeless people and low fertility rate?
Drones and other means of hybrid warfare are no longer a monopoly of Tel Aviv. Times have changed. And the most important aspect was the narrative in the west, which is also no longer a given seeing one extreme administration after the other there. The public needs to have a clear "good vs bad", but with the disastrous human rights reports mounting up this is no longer any framing that you can sell to them. Without billions of dollars of aid and ammunition here + some more billions of dollars as bribes to Jordan and Egypt, this is not sustainable.
We saw on 7.10 how well section (2) played out
The support of the orthodox lifestyle trades short term political peace for a long term collapse of the system economically, and a massive change in the country's character socially.
I would compare it to Western nations bringing and subsidising millions of migrants.
Just because the orthodox are Jews doesn't mean their way of life isn't foreign and disruptive to the core of the nation.
America will NEVER be out of Israel. Just my opinion.
or vice versa
Maybe if oil became less important or when iran stop being aggressive to the USA and another countries in the middle east
Boy, he kept this one in the bag a long time. That looks like about May or June. These days Colorado has no leaves on trees and there is snow in the ground in the metro area, let alone the mountains or foothills where he is at.
Peter, I enjoy your discussions. Have you given thought to doing a Q&A on some of the points your critics state that some of the things you have discussed have not come to pass?
I was stationed in Turkey..they are good people.
What’s the attar quote about the Turks need a better role mount model then a badly behaved Arab speaking of Mohammed.
Attaturk
Hi Peter, I just was deployed to Saudi. The US still controls all of their national defense and military training. As well as weapons systems..like air defense. Which only US personal know how to operate. The US has increased in presence since the Biden administration. And was still high during the Trump. I do not see that changing within the next 20 years.
We also have plans to be a power in th3 mildew east for the next 50 years at a min. Especially with Jordan becoming the new Kuwait (made base model being built). I don't think u got this one right. US ain't going anywhere no matter who the future President will be. But if your saying this could happen or what would happen if the US leaves I can see that. But what it looks like is less US troops in some areas and higher troops in targeted areas. Supporting the nation our troops are in with providing the bodies under US commands. That's most likely the future.
Wrong! In 5 years Saudi will be a radioactive desert. Oil wealth is useless in smouldering ruins but this requires a level of intelligence the stupidly selfish Gulf Arabs do not have.
Bad revelation.
If US is SA air defence then because those air defence have let through a lot of Iranian drones and had SA oil plant destroyed -
US is not ready for modern war
Many other base assumptions Peter makes are also wrong.
For example, Jordan is completely dependent on Israel since Israel is the only reason the Jordan's still exist. If Israel stops supplying water to Jordan, this will immediately destroy Jordan as a state. They have absolutely no alternatives.
Another example: The bigger the orthodox jewish population gets, the bigger portion of them both serve in the military and participate in the labor force. Right now 65% of them are working, and it increases stadily in the past 20 years. Moreover, as soon as the goverment cannot support them, it won't, and they will be forced to work.
Due to the latest events, there is a boost in military service applications among this population.
Another examole: the most growing population in israel is not the orthidox jewish, but the religius jewish nationalists. And they serve in the military more than anyone else. Also, they are working just as the secular population.
But the biggest wrong assumption is that parameters don't affect each other. Every parameter continues to remain constant. If right now religious people don't work in Israel, Peter assumes they never will. Well, everywhere outside of Israel, these orthodox jews are all working. The only reason they don't in Israel, is that the goverment allows them by paying them. As soon as the goverment cuts these subsidies, as happend in the early 2000s, their will to work will spike. Same with military service. Where there is a need, there is a will. Linear extrapolation does not work in such predictions.
@@raphaelsasson9726 I completely agree with your assessment.
@@raphaelsasson9726 Bro, Peter is basically a UA-camr nowadays. And he definitely learned that the more radical/outrageous the content is, the more views. His conclusions are usually a 101 masterclass on Euler diagrams. In other words, he might identify many facts correctly, however his conclusions are usually way off (aka the collapse of China, the collapse of Germany, de impending retirement of USA from global stage, so on and so forth). I listen to his videos while cooking or whatever only for the factual info, 'cause the conclusions are usually laughable.
Many ultra-Orthodox women in Israel DO work while their husbands "work" as rabbis and yeshiva teachers. They start businesses, open stores, operate childcare centers, etc. It's quite common. And even among men, the younger generation is increasingly joining the army and becoming involved in tech and startups. The situation will look very different in another generation or two.
I don't think people unfamiliar with Jewish history in the modern era quite appreciate the potential (and I'd say very likely) change in the pace of change.
Here's another factor in Israel. The tensions this year regarding the changes the pm was trying to make in the government brought protests all over and the military was refusing to serve. Therefore, the people are not going to stand for their fundamentalist faction getting the perks without any responsibility to serve in the military. Nor are they going to be stand for seeing them control policy.
I think Israel will never have a Rest because God want them like that
Been waiting for this one for a LONG time. Thx Peter
As an Israeli - I am not entirely on board with your assessments here Peter:
1) There are changes happening within the Orthodox Jewish population in Israel - for instance - many women are studying and working - including in the Israeli Defense Industrial complex.
Also, since October 7th, thousands of Orthodox Jewish men have asked to be drafted in the IDF - this marks a remarkable change in viewpoint and could result in an agreed upon solution to the issue of who carries the brunt of the burden regarding military service, work and taxation and more. Politically of course - this is a potential powder keg.
2) The United states not interested in the Middle East?! I guess this series is about a hypothetical scenario of this happening but the United States is very much interested in the Middle East and the Abraham accords - especially what was supposed to happen in September (the signing of a normalization treaty between Israel and Saudi Arabia and the future opening of a major economic corridor between India, the Middle East aka Israel and Saudi Arabia, and Europe). This is most likely what led to the Hamas attack (likely orchestrated by Iran) and the Houthi and Hezbollah attacks.
3) One of the painful realizations now in Israel (among many painful realizations) is that it cannot count forever on US assistance. Without it - Israel not only has a problem with ammunition and weapons supplies but mainly - at the United Nations Security council. The first issue it will most likely remedy to an extent to be more self sufficient and manufacture its own ammunition. The second issue - hard to see any country with a Veto at the UN Security Council stepping in on behalf of Israel. This is a big problem which could in the future lead to a weapons embargo on Israel (only strengthens the 1st point - that Israel has to rely on itself).
October comes after September, so that point makes no sense.
@@minzblatt I see your point but well, there were delays and all kinds of issues with the agreement - no one really knows if Hamas/Iran/Putin were set on a date or not.
October 7th happens to be Putin's Birthday which could be a coincidence (or not). Iran also dismisses the accusation that it orchestrated the October 7th massacre. In some ways, Hamas may have actually attacked prematurely since there are indications that Hezbollah was planning a joint attack from both fronts. Hamas botched this up. Again, we don't have all the information, maybe if some top Hamas leader is captured by the IDF - Israel can wrest more info out of him.
Looks like Colorado's having a pretty mild winter this year, Peter! 😄
"Why did I decide to do this on the uphill part?" Lol you're always fun Peter cause you still take time to not be a seemingly all knowing robot and show us you're still human. Happy New Year and looking forward to more videos as always :)
David Grün Golda Mabovitch Jabotinski Netanyahu Avigdor Lieberman Weizmann are not genetically Semitic.
Arabs and middle Eastern jews are genetically Semitic people
Semitic people are from africa and arab island Aljazirah alarabiyah
Arabs are Semitic people
Arabic is semitic language
Who are anti Semitic here???
David Grün Golda Mabovitch Jabotinski Netanyahu Avigdor Lieberman Weizmann etc. are
Stop stealing Palestinians lands
Stop holocausting Palestinians arabs Semitic people
Have a ❤heart❤please❤
NO WAR, only PEACE and LOVE, only ONE GOD❤️🏵️☀️🙏
Wow - Colorado looking pretty green for December. I just drove from the western slope to the Denver/Boulder area and it was snowery than that.
Climate change.
Hey Peter, waiting for "Australia, After America (and some submarines)" 🙂
There's something to learn about this guys spouting nonsense with such confidence
The Post-American World is a non-fiction book by American journalist Fareed Zakaria. From 2008! The book shares another thing in common with Peter - it has no interest in the United States ending, or splitting up, or civil war, or not being a super-power, or not being the only super-power. In only discusses a slight reversion to the mean where the country still exists in its current form, but is less dominant and more insular. Not exactly what I'd picture as post-American or after America. Probably throwing this comment on the wrong video, but meh
Actually, this was helpful for me. Thanks.
The US will not end or spit up. We can set such ideas aside. The instability is far from the US.
Israel after Israel 🤞🤞🤞
Just came across your channel. Interesting angle. Great to see there are still some intelligent self-reflecting Americans out there. Your type is seriously under represented here in the rest of world.
There was a king named Herod who was so afraid to have power taken away from him that he ordered the killing of all babies under 2years of age in his domain, apparently also killed 2 of his own children and a wife...I am not sure if he is/was the same that had John the Baptist killed and beheaded...in any case, he was also held in high regard by the Roman Emperor for his loyal service, and...also a great builder of his times...a few decades after his time, the same Roman Empire that held that King bb in high regard moved into the Province he reigned over and destroyed his city and temple, eventually triggering the Jewish diaspora...Today, mr Nutty a'who? Seems to be equally "appreciated" and "held in high regard" by the major power of our era's leader...and history, including the killing of babies and his very own people (the kings in question) seems to be happening again...Could that be a clear sign of future events in the region?...I'd say it looks like it...😶🌫️
i appreciate that he didn't edit the part about the us backing the Israeli security in the future.
Interesting analysis but I wonder, if America goes away, would the Saudis be able to hold their own country together?
Nope.
That was literally his point. Not alone. Yes with a strong alliance with Israël.
Not enough. Sometimes 1+1 is not 2 but 0, like in this example. Zeihan did 2 or 3 takes before on the whole Saudi deal before, which is why most of us are wondering why he is now just omitting the critical part of that deal. Saudi basically promised to cooperate with the little nation to secure military commitments from the US against Iran. The deal was never just about cooperation with the little nation, which they already have behind closed doors. It was always about US military assurances and a continuing presence in the Golf, which the US public is less and less in favor of since the sh.shows of Afg, Iraq and Syria.
Unfortunately the Saudis couldn't fight its way out of a paper bag.
Not to mention the feudal theocracy movements the Saudis have been allowing support for, developing a Muslim World with a hair trigger against America (culminating in 9/11) but ignore even more blatant anti-Muslim campaigns from China, Burma, Serbia, etc.
This brings up a question: Would India play a role in the Gulf at all? They seem relatively proximate. Would they pick a side or kind of play both sides against each other?
Question is what has India do gain from just a risky maneuver? You either have enough to gain from saving the stability there or the opposite. Either way, entering that arena has risks which is currently only US and Russia are able to take. Russia doesn't. An for US this isn't profitable enough.
@@minzblatt It was more thinking having access to Oil for India might be beneficial. But I guess since they are so close they could just hold the bargaining chips when it comes to purchasing Oil and get the good deals, which they kind of are doing already.
india have too much problem in within itself and their own neighbors, they dont have resource for anything else
India is fairly insular. As long as they have enough food and oil, I don't foresee them sticking their noses into much.
India will not interfere in Arabic world dynamics. We want stability and security and no unwanted negative attention from Islamic countries. We have had enough problems from the Islamic neighbour and from within in this regard. Somehow Modi government has had maintained positive progressive relationships with UAE and Saudis.
Sometimes I can't believe that we actually get these briefings for free. Seriously... We get these for free.
Would you stop with this. It's a dude walking in the forest talking for 4 minutes. There is content on UA-cam that took hundreds of not thousands of hours to create and you're gushing about a "shower thoughts" video.
Talking about an Israeli-Saudi partnership is beyond farcical. You would have to know literally nothing about the region, current or past history, to believe this nonsense.
Man calm down, it’s not even accurate
@@dbearden3232 Gawd, thank you for the reality check. The culty 'guru' vibe in this guy's comment section is creepy. He's got his rap down, so he just tweaks it when he's wrong, and people still gush like teenage girls. It's like a Trump rally, but with douchey Millennial man buns instead of red MAGA hats.
@@dbearden3232have you even looked into Peter Zeihan’s credentials? He’s not just some random guy walking in the mountains. He’s got his own Wikipedia page. Governments and Fortune 500 companies pay to hear what he has to say.
"Armenians aren''t good Christians..." Peter Zeihan
This is what one of the people whom I have followed and learned from. Peter is all about the truth ,and every one whould know the TRUTH. Peter, you need to make a video and explain why you said this.
Thank you.
This guys detached from reality
Yeah Israel has a GREAT human rights record
What country has a great human right recorded dude?
And you probably think any country in the Middle East has a better one?
Which country in the Middle East HAS or WILL EVER come close to Israel's human rights record?
@@JM-yn8mb literally almost all of them, take Jordan I dont see them commiting genocide you fools
@@dfrcj omg lets start:
Yemen- over 10000 killed since the start of the civil war.
Syria- over 10000 killed since the start of the civil war. Chemical weapons have been used against civilian population. Ethnic cleansing of Yazidi christians
Saudia- Multiple human rights violation in regard to human trafficking and state sanctioned assasisination on forge in soil.
Turkey- ongoing oppression and ethnic cleansing of multiple ethnic minorities most specifically the Kurds.
Egypt- ongoing suppression and oppression of Coptic christian minority.
That's just from the top of my head.
Btw- everyone of these countries have a "stellar" record of execution of LGBT civilians
Peter never mentions the sexual blackmail operations run by a certain state who targets the billionare donor class and politicians of a certain superpower. That throws the calculation off the rails.
Your coded talk is shrouded in a second layer of code.
Peter gives “approved” info, people like to hear him because even what people think is doomsday, is still safe and palatable for the crowd. The things that seem like are really going on, an inversion of morality and western civilization often cause heads in the sand, real quick.
@@Muzakman37So basically he wasted time and resources to post nothing of substance.
Yes, Epstein almost surely had connections in the Mossad. It hasn’t been proven beyond a doubt but it makes sense when you put a few of the pieces together. The question is: who has replaced him?
Friends and allies of Jeffrey E. the "Financier" are actually , physically cancelling people in the region .
Sorry for the previous lack of clarity. Some people understood it anyway.
Maybe Peter thinks it's a impossible to say it even with filters. But also too obvious to not talk about the region at all.
I don't see the blackmailed class of the superpower voluntarily withdrawing from the region.
Especially now with the warning shot in the media.
Exposing their legislative assembly as a gay porn set. @Muzakman37 @@kkostadinof
God's plan was given to the prophets in the Old Testament, in the Bible. So the ending was foretold thousands of years ago and is there for us to read. Appreciate your insight though !! Happy New Year Peter !!
Nope.
Now these asiatic Turkic Khazars are thinking they are God’s chosen ones and are trying to expedite God’s plan thinking they will be saved, they won’t.
How do you make God laugh? Tell Him your plans.
How do you make God guffaw? *_Prophesize!_*
Free earth from Israel.
When everyone turns their back on Israel, God will come down and protect Israel and the world as we know it will end
Apparently your god was on 30 days annual vacation this past October and didn't notice the armed dudes flying paragliders into El Holy Land, eh? LOL.
Are you saying God arranged the gas chambers ? Please explain!
The biggest surprise in the Gaza war is the amount of participation of the Haredi population. Some have volunteered into the army and a lot of national service. The biggest group that is growing is the religious zionist faction, and they have lots of children who serve in the army they get a high-level education and participate fully, including women in the economy. Peter, you should speak to Professor Pasig from Bar Ilan University. He has a different view of Israel's future. Demographics predict that by the end of this century, there will be 24 million in the country, with 20 million who are jewish.
😂😂😂😂
Pretty sure no content is better than obsolete content, Peter.
I'll be interested in a video on Pakistan in the post-American world. Without foreign aid, I imagine the country would very quickly collapse and be overrun by terrorists and various militant groups. Or an extreme martial law might be imposed to keep the country running. Pakistan does have an educated and stable middle class and a thriving diaspora that seems to do well even during upheaval in the more remote parts of the country.
I think it would turn into something like Afghanistan
@@TheCastedoneno
was just watching latest video (after this one) from zeihan, on India assassins in Canada and USA. then it was unavailable to continue watching and removed from my history also. Interesting to see if it comes back and or if this post stays
I got the ping from TY there was a new vid, but missed watching it. Went looking, but couldn't;t find a re-upload :(
1 Hour ago "On my home trail in Colorado" ? Did spring/summer arrive & no one told me ?
I'm confused Peter :) Brought some heat from the Gaza to melt all that Colorado snow ?
What is the economic base that allows Turkey to spend so much on the military. Can you do a separate review of Turkey's finances?
It has a stable economy that is unlike most nations around not dependent on selling raw commodities such as oil which it doesn't have in amounts worth mentioning. In the last couple decades however it suffered from bad financial policies, corruption and mismanagement, which made this growth rocky to say the least. Btw. the Turkish domestic military industry is a by-product of the US imposed sanctions on Turkey after the Cyprus war in 1974 and Turks are very proud of this fact to this day with the recent renewal of sanctions linked to 5th Gen fighter jets. 2025 will be the 50th anniversary of ASELSAN, which is basically where it all started. And if we're lucky we will see the maiden flight of the first domestic fighter jet tomorrow. With a booming drone tech industry both in air and on sea (USVs), this will ultimately guarantee them superiority over most of their neighbours for the foreseeable future.
actually, the answer is simple: borrowing. In a globalized world that has low inflation and low interest rates, Turkey has based the vast majority of its econimy on cheap forign caoital borrowing. in the past 2 years however, the Trkish economy is going through a serious crisis, and is in risk of collapsing. They are fighting hyoer inflation, and low economic activity. This is due to higher interest rates worldwide, which made borrowing much more expensive.
Don’t they have record inflation right now?
“They have plundered the world, stripping naked the land in their hunger… they are driven by greed, if their enemy be rich; by ambition, if poor… They ravage, they slaughter, they seize by false pretenses, and all of this they hail as the construction of empire. And when in their wake nothing remains but a desert, they call that peace.”
― Tacitus, The Agricola and The Germania
Here's how the demographic argument about Israel's reduced power doesn't pan out: The secular birthrate is 2.2, above replacement levels, so, regardless of the seculars losing demographic dominance in the broader society, as of now they retain the absolute population trend to continue their levels of military and research contribution.
2.1 is a very high birthrate compared to Europeans but a low birthrate compared to their middle east neighbors. It's that comparison that matters
Coming from Colorado? When? Not in December, not even October, autumn golden Aspen leaves. I'd like to know what you think today, post 7 October.
Just can’t see America not backing Israel
Russia is too far away, but the UK isn't? Also, I think the identity of the guarantor has less to do with proximity (the USA is kind of far away, but that hasn't stopped us in the past) and more to do with ability & desire to be that guarantor.
Post-Brexit UK is broke anyhow
Mars, in a post-American world...
This video was posted today yet it completely ignores the Palestinian problem (and the extreme instability politics). The current waging war shows just how vulnerable Israel is. It can hardly deal with the hamas, and the war with with the hizbolla hasn't even started. Without the US Israel will not be able to manage the risks, especially considering the extreme mismanagement.
At under eight minutes, this video is clearly intended as a a high-level narrative about Israel's need for regional security partners for exactly the reasons you mentioned. There's neither the space nor arguably the need to delve into conflicts du jour of which followers of the situation are already aware.
Not going to say there isn't instability, or that Israel is vulnerable, but I will say Israel comes together even harder when fighting the outside world, and that doesn't have to involve America, just like it didn't in 1948, 1956, until 1967. You can paint a picture of Israeli weakness, but don't go too deeply down the wishful thinking rabbit hole.
Israel has dealt with much larger threats than Hamas.
Be sure that Israel can deal with Hamas + Hezbollah together (It's not an opinion but based on historical wars)
@@nbNJ90 there's no comparison - it was over 50 years ago and we fought mediocre armies - not guerrilla fighters in urban environment. We can't win this war simply because Bibi intentionally did not define what are the objectives. Hamas won't be eliminated, the hostages won't be returned and we just isolated ourselves for nothing.
@@OrelBenShamay based on what? The attrition war of 69? The two botched Lebanon wars? The endless pointless operations in gaza in the past 20 years that only strengthen hamas? The belief in the Idf as invincible simply didn't stand the test, because it is given impossible missions by idiotic leaders in
Where are you in Colorado? It’s December and you are walking without a coat and the trees are leafing out. Looks like spring.
When was this recorded? The situation regarding Gaza isn't mentioned, and there are leaves...
Peter is having a Christmas vacation. He's been building up a backlog of videos on the same theme, recorded across the year, to release over the Christmas holidays in his absence.
Peter, last month Saudi Arabia wanted the USA to give them the same type of security they give to Israel. What would happen with that? The Security is what they are looking for. The USA gives $6.5 million a year to Israel. I always wondered why that amount goes up every year! Give it to the British, they started all this.
USA gives 4.2 billion USD to Israel and Egypt since the 1982 peace treaty. For Israel, it is a nice bonus but no longer a large crutch it depends on. A small yet growing part of Israel understands this and the continued cost of this aid being the dependence on the US administration and US military products. If this aid would be reduced or stopped, Israel would be able to spend elsewhere, something Europe and Russia or CHINA would strive to win.
GOOD point Cindy,the US gets a lot of blame that should be directed to the UK and the "Sun never sets on the British empire" era. Even to include China's hostility at correcting the "Century of Humiliation",which seems to get transferred to the US.
Has anyone here actually been to Israel?Israel is one of my favorite places,dont believe everything you see on CNN!Trust me if anyone went to gaza you would last a hour,and try to get into Israel.Gaza before Oct 7 was alot nicer than alot of middle eastern countries!The Israeli people have built a powerhouse!All the nations around want to be friends with Israel.Where is one country to actually help the people of gaza?@@shuki1
Does anybody else feel like Bibi isnt going to give up power?
Another Bibi derangment syndrome!
I have NEVER felt like Bibi .... and I don't want to feel like Bibi, thank you very much. If he has a shred of humanity, the guilt must be overwhelming.
@@terryhoath1983 Of couse you not alone! Lack of one's capicity of judgement (stupidity) is part of human condition and even happenes to high IQ people.
Where's this conspiratorial thinking coming from? His governments have fallen a number of times, which has always led to elections, and when he didn't win afterwards, he left the Prime Minister's residence.
@olterigo He is facing criminal charges once he is out of power. He caused nationwide protests when he tried to pass a get out of jail free card. Now, he has committed to a decade+ long counter insurgency in Gaza
I love these videos very entertaining but any relation to reality is purely by accident.
The book of Judges tells of one cycle that Israel experienced a number of times in its first centuries after spending 40 years wandering in the desert:
God would bless Israel. Israel would start out thanking God for the blessings. But as time went on Israel would take God's blessings for granted. So God would allow Israel to be conquered. After awhile, Israel would cry out to God. God would then provide a new hero to deliver Israel and the cycle would begin over again.
At this point, is Israel trying to fight their current war in their own strength or are they looking to God for victory?
What will it take to change this?
When you look through Israel's history, do the alliances that Israel committed, to work out for them?
What will happen in the future?
One thing I find odd is Peter is clearly hiking in the summer yet this is supposedly a new video.
Europe will be disinterested helping Israel due to the fact that the Muslim influx in European nations to such an extent, that the political processes will need to involve and actually appease the Muslim interest. In every case, Israel will need to be self sufficient and can still rely on the USA for at least another 20 years
This is a Pre-Oct 7 take
Looks like May 7.
So uhhh... yeah THAT take didn't age well
We constantly speak of America like it has not been subverted. We need an honest conversation.
You think that "subversion" is a new thing. That's the conversation you need to have.
@@NorthForkFisherman no, you could say it’s been going on since our inception, there def seems to be multi levels of it, post ww2 being significant. But I do believe we’re close to a tipping point.
@@Crumbsoftotailtariansim Well yes, we're dangerously close to falling into a fascist, christian-nationalist state. Hell, it'
s been that way since the late 1920s and early '30s. But the demographics of the nation have significantly changed and despite MSM seeming to revel in the carnage, social media is still able to provide itself as a tool as a means of organization and resistance. And despite all the bloody-minded rhetoric on the right, we're making progress while all the MAGA does is talk. And that talk is being monitored and if needed, can be acted on.
It's when people are quiet that you have to be worried.
Christianity is the subversion.
@@NorthForkFisherman confusion and contradiction, no honest conversation pertaining to Covid policies and Covid vaccine efficacy or ethicacy. Collapse of fundamental truths, (men cannot become women.). Constant normalization of very illogical and inconsistent foundational western civilizational truths, accompanied with acting like a person in the White House is making decisions when often he can barely walk or speak. Just some examples.
Marxist and postmodern principles saturating the institutions are not sustainable, of course that’s the plan.
very cool sun glasses in addition to interesting perspective
It's amazing to me that a 10 y old wants to be a dentist, goes after that goal, and after 25 year achieve that goal.
Yet our "mature and experienced" politicians cannot "see, set, and achieve" even a medium term goal !!
As Always, Fascinating Analysis in a Critical Sector!!!!
Thank you Peter. Very sharp analytics!!
Gaza invasion perspective missing. Failed states to the North.
Economy based on globalization.
Internal dissent & corruption.
wrong. 100% wrong. i couldn't disagree more. if this was released 2 months ago i could maybe get behind it. before oct 7 saudi and isreal were in fact normalizing relations. since oct 7 and the invasion and genocide in gaza there is 0% the saudi government would or even could align with them, let alone be a protector of them.
@zeihan on geopolitics , you never talked about the recent China brokered peace deal between Saudi and Iran . If the plan was a fight for dominance why did the deal happen.
The was to restore diplomatic relations that were severed in 2016. One of the litmus tests for the Saudis was that Iran stop arming the Houthis in Yemen.
How is that going?
@Zeihan what would you invest in if you are me & u were in America.
Second blunder video in a row - first a out-of-touch take on the Germany military rising, then a video on the middle east half a year old pulling out talking points completely moot since Oct 7th.
Wtf is going on?
CIA wishful thinking can’t keep pace with reality
Zeihan contended that Israel needs to identify regional partners to ensure it's national security. I do not understand how October 7th rendered moot this strategic objective. If anything, it would emphasize the necessity for regional partners.
@@marshallartz3194 It doesn't render that strategic objective moot, just the analysis of the most important available partners. It also puts into question his assertion that the US will retreat from the space in the foreseeable future.
As an American, I am tired of having my taxpayer money sent to a country that commits genocide on a daily basis.
our human rights card cant be played anymore
Luck of common sense is not good trait.
Me too.
Yes, stop buying chinese.
Apparently, you are not aware of the definition of genocide. The Palestinian population or culture aren't about to disappear. Rather, their population continues to grow at well above replacement rate and their culture of suicide bombings and rocket attacks are well established and vibrant!
Less than 1% of the world population and we sure do pay a lot of attention to the chosen ones
There's plenty of other commentators with non-American perspectives for you to listen to.
Seeing as the last of the holocaust survivors were infants at the time and are now 75+yrs old... sympathy for Jews is running out quickly in light of what's happening in Gaza. How does that saying go? You become what you hate...
I imagine I missed a video. Did Zeihan make a prediction as to when this post America world will come to be?
With regards to the growing charedi population. They are as a collective moving towards national pride and involvement.
Since October 7 close to 500 men with wives, kids and careers joined the IDF. Completely voluntarily if I may add.
There is plenty of room for improvement but I am not worried about that portion of this segment.
Peter talks a lot about how the US is now an oil exporter so we no longer have an interest in securing the oil in the middle east. Then he also talks a lot about how China can no longer be the world's manufacturer and so we're turning to other countries and manufacturing at home in combination with Latin America. Then he also talks about the collapse of Russia(as a superpower) which makes NATO kind of pointless. This is what "post America" means and the timelines vary by region and accelerators like war, population collapse, uprisings, etc.
America's dominance has been due to the dollar as well as it's guarantee of security for international trade. If America fails to secure the Red Sea against the Houthis, America will lose its trust with other nations and people will stop using the dollar for trade standards.
I’m not so optimistic for Israel without America..
"Saudi Arabia has a less than stellar human rights record"🤔
Well KSA still has slavery for one.
@@incisivecommenter5974
Name one slave in saudi arabia.
foreign workers come and go as they please. so cut the BS you've been fed
interesting
@@m.deadly5952 No, they do not. We have plenty of stories of saudi employes taking away the passports of workers. And without that passport, they can not leave the country. So, how about you cut out the bullshit you are spreading?
@@m.deadly5952sure sure.. If you can’t put a particular persons name to it then the thing that’s super obviously happening isn’t happening. GTFOOH!
When we look at Iran, we think Persia and Shiite. That's not wrong, but the majority of the ruling class is from one Turkish tribe or another. They don't flaunt it, but it's a significant part of how things are done. Another factor is Erdogan's almost messianic drive to regain guardianship of Mecca and Medina.
There's your Turkish wildcard answer.
No such stance from Erdogan on Mecca and Medina I ever heard of. He is fully aware of the limits of current Turkish military capabilities, which is why Iraq and Syria are much more important regions than the Hejaz. With Iran there is ongoing competition about the southern Caucasus. With Saudi there is no competition whatsoever, but no real alliance can be formed either since this would only be possible if Turks would call the shots in this alliance, which is currently not palatable for the House Saud. China is the only player that can change the equation, but they will likely be blocked by other nations like the US to play a meaningful role.
@@minzblatterdogan is muslim brotherhood in cover
Anyone revisit Peter’s videos and just see how wrong he is most of the time? Like it’s staggering.
I don’t think he realizes there are bugger things at play and people pulling strings that hes unaware of
He might just be a propagandist. He’s SO polished and SO SURE of his analysis.
Yes, it's staggering how often he is right. You must be an expert at cherry-picking his statements. You are probably the type of person who does this with every Internet opinion-maker. Now, if you posted a meticulously researched breakdown of his predictions (and btw, he rarely makes specific predictions, he just points us in the general direction of LIKELIHOOD) and compared them with the actual outcomes, we might take you seriously. Otherwise, you're just a comedian.
he is a passionate in his job, they say talk is cheap.
Here ya go. Zeihan's a hack:ua-cam.com/video/XupM5_zHDbM/v-deo.htmlsi=XusrIGca-KUepQgh@@DieFlabbergast
I'd rather talk about America after Israel.
Those trees are Very green.... How long ago did he record this?
How about treating their neighbours like human beings and trying to get along .
Brilliant analysis, as always. However, without the US, Israel will cease to exist as a world powerhouse regardless of the Saudis imo. As an American, I'm in full favor of pulling aid to foreign entities until OUR borders are secure.
Even after - israel isn’t our problem
1) Stop foreign aid
2) ???
3) No more immigrants at border
4) Profit
That is not possible since many jew in position of power in your country
This “special friendship” is a one-way street.
@@zee9709 The vast majority of Americans are not Jewish. If American Jews are concerned about Israel, they can hop on a plane any time. The rest of us don't support joining a fight that isn't ours. Same goes for Ukraine.
So the US gives 2 billion dollars of taxpayer money for another country to financially support their people in not working but studying the torah? I'd prefer healthcare for my own people with my own tax dollars.
Of course you would, but unfortunately there is disproportionate amount of representation in Congress by literal Jewish ancestry who make the decision in the first place.
@@Mcfunface , true. I am not against Israel or Jews or anybody for that matter, I just think we spend way to much on helping people outside of the US when the people here need way more than we get.
@@ocheltree1 Likewise. But there is a conflict of interest.
It's a 2 way street, the financial system as well as scientific prowess in America is built by the Jews in US
We would like to hear about America in Post America world.
"Hiking" is just a word some Angeleno came up with to replace the word "walking".
Inane comment.
Actually in Colorado we use hiking to replace the words "climbing a mountain". The continental divide and Rocky Mountains run right through the middle of the state. When we get to the foothills we call it walking and when we get to the plains we call it strolling.
I personally believe that the Israeli-US partnership is very strong. Even without AIPAC. The Israeli-Saudi partnership is mostly via the Intelligence services, so most of their populaces are "blissfully?" Unaware unless they are with the Saudi Mukhabarat or the Israeli equivalent.
As with anything in the middle east, this is a very complicated issue. I believe that Peter may underestimate the intelligence of his audience, and perhaps may have OVER-simplified this normally complex issue.
He is definitely oversimplifying everything and understand Israeli demographics
He is also underestimating the Arab street and the 2nd pillar of Saudi rule, which is the clerical Wahabbi side. They are tolerating MBS's maneuvering for now, but it's a growing population with an increasingly religious youth. Enough reason why this deal was and will be a death sentence for any leader in the Middle East. Any damage to their existing oil based economies will lead to more cuts on the subsidies of these non-working citizens. They already started with taxing them a few years ago. They will need to keep them blissfully unaware or else this will quickly be a powder keg waiting to be lit up by Iran.
It’s always fun to watch Peter try to read the future with his “magic 🎱 ball” - it’s a lot of informed guesses- but it briefs well…
Chinese bot👆
The big question is this. Is America (Will America be) DISinterested or UN/NOT interested ? Not quite the same thing. Peter doesn't seem to understand China. If the crunch comes, BECAUSE IT HAS GOT ITS' POPULATION UNDER CONTROL, China has all the food and all the energy that it needs. There are many keys to the Chinese economic miracle but birth rate reduction was absolutely vital .... 37,000,000 Americans living in abject poverty and that poverty concentrated among the breeders. Children do not sow, neither do they reap. They merely consume.As most American are a bit squeamish about child labour, children are parasites upon the economy.
We are right to be amazed at the Chinese economic miracle. We also have reason to fear China.
What will the American politicians do if China seizes Taiwan ? What if China ignores Taiwan seeing it as too much of a porcupine for the time being and goes for the Philippines. Failure to support the Philippines will be about as stupid as the current failure to support Ukraine adequately. What if, because of American stupidity, the newly gung-ho Russians take over Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan and then take a nibble at a few Aleutians ?.... What when the Chinese come sniffing around Wake Island ? Americans should understand that if it had not been for Britain and France holding out against Nazism for 9 months and then Britain alone for a further 17 months, long before December 1941, there would have been some brave Americans fighting a guerilla campaign in the Appalachians and Cascade Mountains, but, the USA east of the Mississippi would have been Amerika Ost, certain areas of New York having high barbed wire fences around them .... the USA to the West, would have had an unintelligible name. As we saw in December 1941, despite the efforts of Billy Mitchell, the USA did not have an air force worthy of the name and Pearl Harbour(Pearl Harbor) demonstrates military incompetence that was almost beyond belief.
With regard to Ukraine, stupid and pig-ignorant Republicans are belly-aching about the cost but all the USA has done so far is open up some garden sheds on some military bases, dragged out some rusty lawnmowers and old scythes, sent this junk to Ukraine, to make room for far more sophisticated sit-on petrol lawnmowers and combine harvesters, the US high command unable to disguise their dribbling as they salivate over the latest John Deere, Mountfield and Mitsubishi kit. On the face of it, F16s seem pretty juicy but they are NOT exactly F35s .... are they ?
I wonder if China will prove to be more resilient than we think/hope the way Russia has been.
It will be. Peter has great insight, but he tends to be very hyperbolic in his manner of speech.
Russia is on its last breath
Even with or without Ukraine war
Their demographics are horrible and monirities are going to rise up
Russia is resilient? I don't think that word means what you think it means.
Today China is behaving like their past colonial occupiers, and wrongly thinking it is progress. China has announced they are our adversary, don't trust them buy locally.
China never reached a post-industrial society like Russia did. China is also dependent on foreign oil/coal/gas, food, fertilizer, and exports. Russia developed all their tech in-house and China just copied it. Russia exports oil/gas/weapons
I appreciate the video, but perhaps something updated to reflect current developments in the Gaza war? This was clearly filmed months ago.
Hey Peter, what microphone setup do you use here? I see a small device attached to your phone and the sound is quite good!