What Happened To Salesforce?
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- Опубліковано 3 лип 2024
- Salesforce stock sells off 17% after earnings. Let's discuss what happened.
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00:00 Intro
01:15 Why Salesforce Sold Off
06:00 What I'm Doing Now
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I am not a professional investor and have never claimed to be. I'm an amateur investor sharing my experience of what I've learned, where I have had success, and where I've had failures. I share my thoughts on investing and performance with transparency. My approach and goal to investing is to buy high-quality long-term investments in world-class businesses that I call "compounders". I view my investments as businesses, not as stocks. Before creating content on UA-cam full time I worked as a senior-level programmer for 8 years. Over the years as a programmer, I compounded my knowledge of development. I take the same iterative learning approach to my study of investing. I study investing as a craft in the continual pursuit of being better. I will make mistakes in investment decisions from time to time. Results are not guaranteed. Please do not blindly follow me into any investments, and make sure your portfolio and investments are built around your specific income, risk tolerance, personality, timeline, and overall circumstances.
My advice to new investors: Buy good companies stocks and hold them as long as they are good companies. Just do this and ignore the forecasts and market views which are at best entertaining but completely useless.
The key to big returns is not big moving stocks. It's managing risk in relationship to reward. Having the correct size on and turning your edge as many times as necessary to reach your goal. That holds true from long term investing to day trading.
It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.
Is there any chance you could recommend who you work with? I've wanted to make this switch for a very long time now, but I've been very hesitant about. I'll appreciate any recommendation.
Finding financial advisors like Melissa Terri Swayne who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
Thanks a lot for this recommendation. I just looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
Stocks extended their year-to-date rally following the CPI report, with the S&P 500 last up 0.8% in afternoon trading. but I don't know if stocks will quickly rebound, continue to pull back or move sideways for a few weeks, or if conditions will rapidly deteriorate.I am under pressure to grow my reserve.
Concentrate on two main objectives. First, keep yourself safe by knowing when to sell stocks in order to limit losses and maximize gains. Second, get ready to benefit from market changes. I advise consulting a CFP or other professional for advice.
When it comes to investment, diversification is key. That is why I have my interests set on key sectors based on performance and projected growth. They range from the EV sector, renewable energy, Tech and Health (AMD) alongside coins, and gold. I'm also working on an investment plan that includes AI looking into Nvidia, MSFT, Alphabet stocks among others with my Fin. Advisor, . It's been a year and half of steady growth.
I'm sitting on some significant money ready to toss it into VOO, but I'm kinda hoping that price drops a bit. I know we only want to see the stock rise, but being heavily liquid, I'd rather not reinvent the wheel, thus the search for a reputable advisor, mind sharing info of this person guiding you please?
Finding financial advisors like Marisa Breton Dollard who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
I greatly appreciate it. I'm fortunate to have come upon your message because investing greatly fascinates me. I'll look Marisa Breton Dollard up and send her a message. You've truly motivated me. God's blessings on you.
Time to buy this.
Thesis : Joseph bought it on a higher price, so that means we have margin of safety :)
LOL!
Exactly
Much higher 😂
don't just copy trade. it might be a massive loser
@@Chris-vz2kv Really? I had no idea. Maybe next time I'll get my financial advice from someone with half a clue. 🙄
I have been waiting for this video since market close!!!
Yep great question and that’s always the one - where would you rather be if you have an option. Personally I’m always invested aside from a small emergency fund. Financial-market for me seem the only way forward with my long time horizon (accrued almost $1.4m in gains since 2020 ) but if you don’t have that fortune of time it’s a tough market out there almost nowhere feels safe! . Just know the risk you're comfortable with . Mistake is expensive
very informative, one option I suppose is, if you were to invest a set amount buy the whole share in a ETF and the remainder could go into a index for which would allow you to purchase the fractional shares, is that an option?
well a million in profit is a nice milestone, how did you achieve that? I guess you have a proven trading strategy that you've spent a lot on please share more info !! and YES I dont want to make
My CFA Camille Anne Hector, a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
Thank you! I entered her full name into my browser, and her website came out on top. I sent her a mail and I hope she gets back to me soon.
I am only 23 years old with minimal savings. Do you think its worth looking into an advisor at such an age?
Salesforce isn't going anywhere anytime soon. This is a great opportunity to buy in.
Respect for being the most transparent UA-camr
How's he transparent if he never reveals any of his cost basis
Situations like this is where investors make real money.
Seems like tomorrow is the time to add Sales Force to the Portfolio!
Joseph Carlson pensively looking at a stock is my favorite thumbnail
It strikes the viewer into fear, doubt and unease
Really impressive upload time. Appreciate you!
Agreed, I am a business owner, although I don’t use Salesforce myself (too expensive), I understand how their AI implementation can help businesses owners potentially replacing some of their employees. Also, I know how difficult it is to migrate to another CRM once your business takes off. I think they are still in very good position
Glad you’re feeling better. Thanks you Joseph.
Thanks for the fast update/video 👍🏻
True transparency great to see. Good logic with the evidence. Buy the dip. Great video 😊
thanks for covering salesforce
Great Video !, Thankyou for the Analysis
I regret buying more today. I should have waited a day
Same
You never buy before any stock earnings… because if it goes down, you buy more. Otherwise, you wait till it drop
@@un-tal-ivan-or split half and half, half before half after. I made a lot of money buying Nvidia on the day of earnings last last earnings call. Dropped to 670 before earnings. Then if it goes up or down, you still have half your capital for that week to play with
@@philipppremium5191 that sucks but you guys will be okay. the earnings weren't that bad. my biggest concern is acquisition tendencies. the whole Informatica crap took them from over 300 to 270. and even after that dissipated the stock never recovered, which should have been a tell for my to unload my shares. oh well. such is life. best to you guys.
@@un-tal-ivan-unless it’s NVDA I guess
Thanks for a quick upload buddy
you're great at stock breakdowns but what i've noticed is you usually buy stocks at very high premium not waiting for a pullback or not doing DCAs(noticied that with your netflix amazon cost basis etc. during 2023 market crash), might not be good strategy to buy at ATH even if they are great compounding stocks
I've had this go both ways:
Buying Amazon/Netflix at ATH, very bad, they dropped 70% after buying them (and have since more than recovered).
Buying Apple at ATH, very good, the stock kept climbing from $90 to now $190. This was an example of buying at ATH that worked out well.
My biggest issue is honestly that I just have money that I want to put to work, and almost every stock I want to own is trading near all time highs this year. I am however going to be adding a decent amount to my CRM position (starting tomorrow). We'll see how it turns out.
No point in waiting if you're long.. the price today won't matter and if you wait what if it never pull back
@@montel0220 that's only true if future growth expectations match up to current expectations or are at least in the same ballpark. If you get a massive growth re-rating (take a stock like PYPL for example) you might be looking at 5-10 years before the price returns to your ATH buy. In more extreme cases it can be even longer or a stock may never return to it's all time highs if the fundamentals don't pan out.
@@JosephCarlsonAfterHours Having cash, evaluating opportunity costs, and allocating to the most optimal position is one of the toughest things about investing! This is a great problem to have but is an issue we all go through! I'm not sure what the right answer is but I am leaning towards waiting for better deals! Definitely appreciate your transparency on this important issue! Thanks Joseph and big fan of your channel!
@@JosephCarlsonAfterHoursit’s always good to have cash though. I’m very high in cash right now because market is inflated right now. Normally I like to keep around 20-25% in cash but double that now. Did buy a small position in crm after hours
Honesty
Thanks. I also will buy more
I bought 3 shares this morning at $269.12 hoping for a good report this afternoon. Then I just bought 6 shares at $227.70 after I listened to the earnings call.
How to you buy after hours?
@@Allen-L-Canada I use Robinhood for my broker. Many people do not like Robinhood but I started investing there and have had a good experience. It is way easier for me to buy than TD Ameritrade or Schwab. So I transferred all to Robinhood. You can buy/sell from 7A to open or 4P to 8P, and they have some of the most traded stocks you can buy or sell 24 hrs.
@@Allen-L-Canada Just need a broker that supports after or extended hours trading, most of the big ones do. Although if you are in Canada I don't know if they do or not, they do in the US.
I appreciate the honesty
Plan on adding tomorrow
@@luisvazquez183 DCA. If it's still down in the a.m. then I'll add.
@@luisvazquez183 180
“The company is just growing a little slower it’s okay” - Salesforce
“It’s in trouble its growth is behind it” - Apple
🤷🏽🤷🏽🤷🏽🤷🏽🤷🏽
Thank you for another awesome video Joseph! Keep em coming and I hope you’re feeling better.
thank you Joseph. it is always a pleasure listening to you. I just bought a few shares today after watching your lecture. King regard...
Excellent.... What do you think about uipath earning?
Yes! I was waiting for something like this!
I understand why the world needs Microsoft. I understand why the world made Apple. I understand why the world needs Costco. I don’t understand why the world needs Salesforce. Glad I sat this one out because my lack of understanding would cause me to sell at the wrong time.
Exactly, Shitforce is such an overrated company
We both don't understand the same thing ? that's why the world needs
Salesforce ? That's why wise investors don't invest in things they don't
understand. I'm not at all sure what Salesforce really does ? so it would
be stupid of me to buy it, no matter how far down it drops. We do know
know however, how important NVDA is to the world. Put your money there.
Salesforce's products help sales and marketing (and support) teams to be more effective at selling, marketing and supporting. Being good at these is a challenge for MOST companies - there a few CEO's who'd say, "nah, we'd rather not sell more of our stuff".
Nice timely release 👍 not bad
I am going to buy it tomorrow 🎉
It's amazing... They missed by 1% and crashed 17%? What an opportunity to buy more... Plenty of cash on hand and free cash flow for CRM to do buybacks... If they CRM layoff 10% then next quarter will be a huge beat.
They didn't even miss, they just projected 1% less from my understanding.
As always. Right on!
Mr. Carlson, your entire portfolio (of two accounts) invested in SPY/VOO > your portfolio of stock picks (in two accounts)?
with you on this, play long and enjoy a discount currently!
good video and advice for newbies like me
Salesforce sells not just CRM. They have Sales, Service Management, Marketing, CPQ, Data Cloud, Analytics, Tableau, Slack, Mulesoft, etc
Not to forget they have an app store which hosts more than 5K third party applications
Salesforce has an ecosystem of more than million people growing every day
Literally every company in the world uses Salesforce
Salesforce is here to stay for a long time
It’s a good time to BUY CRM
Wonderfully put. Salesforce can still be a massive winner, even with a slowdown in growth. The company is going nowhere!
I will be buying more tomorrow
Great time to buy the dip. I am going to buy a lot more CRM.
The difference is between Amazon and Netflix is they dropped into a deep bear market while the market is near all time highs now. That said I think this will rebound a bit if market holds up.
Honestly love your content and have followed you for quite sometime bought a leap call on CRM yesterday when it dipped to the 214$ area and gonna hold 💪
Hello Joseph,
You talk a lot about buying great companies which is obviously a good strategy. Nevertheless, can you please do a video about pricing and valuation. You can buy the best company in the world but if you bought high you will not make a lot of money.
When you know why you're buying a company, it's wonderful when it goes on sale.
Can you do a video on $FSLR seems like they are still cheap even after this recent run up
Is it a good time to buy CMG stock now or after it’s split?
Buying more
@Joseph - Can you please share your thoughts on WDAY and NOW? They seem to follow CRM in the trend.
Joseph has always reeked of hubris, and now hes saying hes going to buy more when down 17%, how about at 21%? I have seen this type of situation before and its sad for all involved
I bought some before seeing this video. A drop in a great company is a buying opportunity
wonder if it is filling the gap on opened up last November.
Seems like I’ll be waiting a bit longer to buy
Buying in
This pull back is driven by valuation reversion when sales growth slow down. It is not a fundamental deterioration, it will take some time to work off the froth in the stock price.. but eventually it will come back
Picked some up 🤙
I’m getting my checkbook for tomorrow
This is the problem of companies with very high PE. It is better to wait for a substantial pullback (earnings report,...).
What about competitors such as airtable?
What's your thoughts on iPath going down over 30%
Similar to everyone else, I'm adding more first thing in the morning
Totally agree. I have the stock and just doubled my position at $223,77
Thanks for your view on it. It's as always very clear.
K
You and the commenters talked me into upping my stake in crm too 1.5% of my portfolio and I may up more during the week to my max cutoff for any company of 5% (other than NVDA @ 10%).
How long do you think it'll take to go back up 15%?
Lot of insider selling in this name Ceo sold just before earnings any thoughts ?
Saleforce might be a good company to invest but I’m very concerned with its valuation especially P/E 64.55 too much for me.
@@zenastronomy In my view, Salesforce market price is still higher than its intrinsic value (overvalued for me), even if P/E dropped to 39 yesterday…
I adding a few shares, and i am in for the long run.
Do not listen to the haters Man 🙌🏻✌🏻
I had a feeling the CRM purchase at $300 was a little rich!
Good job, just needs patience, it will come up again, but I learned, never buy before earnings!
All things equal, look at NTNX over CRM. Same group.
I do not see CRM in the Dividend Portfolio in the Tech section as stated in the video
Why I can't see the company in the portofolio listed in description?
what T-shirt brand do you buy?
CEO has been selling hard before earnings.
I agree with you CRM is a solid company, but the price one pays to buy also determines their overall return. I would love to buy it under 150. Nibbling at this level is not bad
Agree
I think there is also some question as to whether CRM is a real AI play or just offering a chatbot
I sold mine two weeks ago, thank god
You buy stocks at like 50-100 p/e only… it’s risky. However, you have been good at trimming at excellent times. But you even called the problems with salesforce a month ago. Why didn’t you trim or sell?
Also meant to say - why Joseph not commenting on this up front at start of video (not just CEO, CTO selling quietly but bucketloads)?
Enterprise & CRM software is not a sector with very high barriers to entry and while Salesforce has been a dominant player they’re competing for marketshare amongst the likes of Oracle, ServiceNow, Microsoft, Monday, Hubspot and others. Companies who are compounding machines as you put it have a highly specialized businesses model and brand value would make it extremely difficult for a new competitor to enter the space and take any amount of marketshare. Think Costco, Visa, Ferrari etc
Saws force trades at a high multiple to earnings.
Why 2025?
The same with palantir
I just don’t like their management. Also capital allocation concerns me. Both of those reasons keeps me out of salesforce.
Great Reaction :+1:
Absolutely going to start a position here and buy if it drops more. Curious to hear your thoughts on things.
Thought you were an “all etf investor”
Why is CEO selling off so many shares daily for weeks now if he is confident of company future?
Buy high sell low lol
I'd like to formally apologize for this. Out of your stock portfolio, the ones I chose to buy along with you were: VICI, CP, and CRM.
This is what happens when you invest in only US mega caps and this is what people should understand. You are just chasing past performance, and since the valuations on these companies are ridiculous, they have to be perfect every quarter to sustain their stock price. The probability of the next decade being as good as last is less than 1%. It’s very likely these mega caps will be the worst performing stocks over the next 1-3 decades. They are just too expensive based on metrics. To all the young investors that see this, Just buy total market funds like VTI and VXUS. Don’t try to outsmart the market.
My one concern abt the company is that it is positioning itself as an "AI pick" is and is priced accordingly. Their front page and conferences constantly mention AI, but the only true implementation of AI is a simple chatbot that i could make myself using the ChatGPT api. I love the company but not as an AI player
lol Saleforce will be the last 'big tech' firm to have any real AI enabler. Don't listen to the nut job of a CEO. Analysts are selling off where they can to put more into nvidia which is a more promising play. But even then longterm nvidia is risky. But I expect nvidia to keep beating/matching earnings into the next FY.
Also Oracle is uniquely positioned to take out salesforce if they ever get their hands on AI capabilities.
Are you still adding money to this account? If so how much per month?
As someone who has a crystal ball i can tell you this is a good buy
Been buying this dip like there’s no tomorrow, amazing for long term !
Buy slowly and patiently Market is near all time highs. I learned my lesson with Uber and meta in 2022. Made out great eventually but did buy too much too soon.
@joseph Carlson I’m glad your voice and health are recovering.
@Joseph, when you showed the FCF chart from Qualtrim, it looks like a trend that Salesforce does well in Q4 & Q1 each year, but then drops in Q2 & Q3 over the last 5-6 years. Thoughts on how should investors read this? Thx
Just added CRM and TXRH
earnngs were not that bad...in many ways were great.....uggh....
going to buy more tomorrow
CRM is just a token share position as PE of 64 is way too high, rather wait its true intrinsic value to $200. TXRH and MA are something solid and realistic
$15 extra dollars doesn't matter