@Joseph Carlson could you do a review on Dominos pizza please? I know you had it in your portfolio a while ago and it's hit 52-week low. Are there risks or long-term headwinds that would make you stay away from it?
Great video btw!! Salesforce is still scary for me due to the reasons you mentioned in the video, and I'll like to watch the trends shift a little longer
@@JackOfBladze1 Most earnings reports are updated 1-2 hours after earnings, sometimes they can take longer to file SEC reports and it can take up to 2 weeks after earnings for the numbers to be in.
The stock market is and has always been the best place to make substantial income. Which is why I still find myself pumping funds into the Stock market and trading aggressively, Away from all the distractions around. I still make profits from my investments, made $260,000 last year.
Agreed !! I am a penny stock trader and I leverage on the volatility of the market for significant returns rather than holding and loosing value to the volatility of the market
Hey I find myself in a fix right now and I need proper ad vise. I have a lump sum in my savings account literally burning a hole in my pocket . I wanna get something started with it but I need help on where and how. You seem to be doing excellent for yourself. I could use some help here.
Actually there is no particular sector i focus on. I just copy trades from US professional trader Julie Anne Hoover. I met her in a seminar in NY and we talked a lot, I have been copying her trades signal ever since then my portfolio has grown at a tremendous pace and she has been very consistent.
Search for her online and send her a message. She is well known for her work because Bloomberg just profiled her. She has a homepage for consultations, so you'll need to ask her about her rates.
Best time to invest? thats funny though because in the last four months I have lost more than $47,900 in stock market which is the biggest I have loss since I ventured into stock investment.
you could be right or wrong . i once had similar problem but now its a different ball game for me because I was lucky to have met Katrina Vanrensum , a financial manager and stock expert, I have made more than $165,000 in 6 weeks under her supervisions
I’m compiling and picking stocks that I’d love to hold on to for a few years before retirement, do you think these stocks would do better over the years? I’d love to retire with at least $2million savings. Now you gotta rely on a pretty good diversification if you must stay green. Currently up 21% and being cautious. Still better deal than letting it sit in savings or checking earning near 0-1% interest.
Well up at 21% in this present market is impressive. I was wondering if investing in a cumulative ETF during this next decade is a sound investment. Or is it better to invest in a distributing ETF (even considering taxes)?
ETFs are cool. My portfolio is very much diversified so it's not like i have a particular fund i invest in. You should probably copy a licensed person more so one with experience of the past bear markets. I copy a chartered financial analyst Amie Christine Shapiro Been quite consistent. My portfolio returned $250k in Q4
With only 350k what do expect people to do ? 10 shares of one of those stocks will not get u anywhere . 3 shares of Vanguard ETF give me a break . Forget the past of 10x stocks ! Those free money days are over ! With 350k just buy a ETF like DIVO with a 5% monthly dividend and add what u can each month .
i am envious i've been in the red for too long even before the dip but would like to ask are you giving her your money or the money stays in your account?
You don't give out funds here. My account only mirrors her trades in real time that's the ideal for this system. The lady I just recommended is a renowned advisor and knows what the heck she's doing. Check her out i think she will explain better.
Hi Joseph, I like your videos, but in this case is in my opinion necessary deeper dive into Salesforce's accounting. Due to their last earnings presentation (link would be probably deleted by UA-cam alghoritm): Non-GAAP Operation Margin: 22.5 % (Y/Y +380 bps) Diluted Earnings Per Share: $5.24 (Y/Y +10%) GAAP Operation Margin: 3.3 % (Y/Y +120 bps) Diluted Earnings Per Share: $0.21 (Y/Y -86%) It's a HUGE defference between non-GAAP and GAAP numbers. Due to last slide of their presentation for example Stock-based compensation expense are summaring with income from operations (and also to earnings per share) what in their accounting equal higher income (higher EPS). It's creative accounting, no surprise, that non-GAAP numbers are so different from GAAP numbers. What do you think about their accounting? 🤔
I agree with almost everything except your opening statement about a "moat" - it does not have a moat (it has nothing unique and/or easy-replicable compared to other CRMs). Salesforce does have a dominant presence in the market, and is "sticky" as much as any SaaS product is, but that isn't a moat imo. CRM is mission-critical for a company, and hard to switch out, for sure... but there is a 5 year cycle where companies look around again at the market and WILL switch is there is a cost--saving and/or technology advantage to switch e.g. integration with other products, inflating subscriptions, poor service/support. Many competitors also offer migration tools FROM Salesforce TO their products, so it's a smoother process than it once was. There are many competitors with comparable features AND lower subscriptions (Salesforce is a behemith, and also very expensive). Salesforce is perceived as "Enterprise software" - there are millions of SMEs that cannot justify SF due to costs-versus-value proposition. They can by no means sit back and relax - the bigger they are, the harder they fall. In general though, love all your content and sincerity.
Thanks Joseph, great analysis, with facts, the good and the bad. Each investor decides what is important to him and how much. For me the red flag is a non trustworthy management team. The long trend of stock dilution and the unpredictability of Mark B would keep me awake at night. Sounds to me like another Disney drama, where the business is great, moat, cash flows, but again.. the management. Buffet also stated it's hard to find good businesses with good management. I'd rather pay the premium and buy Costco and other businesses, which have been doing the right thing all the time, not just last few quarters.
Hi Joseph I’m a follower and a fan of you. I am a new investor and I learned so much from you. I’m wondering if you could tell me the software you use to analyze companies. Thank you
I am not a very experienced investor, I may be wrong, but couldn’t stock base compensation just be coming down due to the share price declines since 2021?
The debt and cap lease have already doubled, and I'm guessing it could double again because of the current state of the economy. Cash flows will also grow, but not fast enough.
It will definitely be interesting to see next quarter if these trends continue. I hope It's the start of a longer term sustainable model for Salesforce.
Thank you for a great video. I appreciate how Qualtrim shows how Salesforce is risky with its share-compensation. Seeking Alpha definitely does not show this problem which unfortunately misleads investors who do not read a companies financial reports.
I watch a few different finance youtubers, each has a unique perspective that i like, but I have to say I find your approach the most sensible and informative out there, I learnt so much over the last year and I built a portfolio im proud of and excited to see how it does over the next few years, cheers bud
@Joseph Carlson could you do a review on Dominos pizza please? I know you had it in your portfolio a while ago and it's hit 52-week low. Are there risks or long-term headwinds that would make you stay away from it?
Salesforce has a lot of multi-year licensing agreements. What will happen over the next 12-24 months if businesses continue downsizing their sales organizations? The renewals will look quite different. I predict price increases also will be coming soon.
I hope the decrease in the number of shares outstanding will continue in the future and and that it isn't only because of the current hiring freeze, and thus a result of the lack of need of giving stock compensation to new employees
At this point and this price in Sales force business they should not be issuing ANY STOCK COMP….. it’s a major red flag. They have the cash and it’s not needed. It’s the sign of a company abusing its share holders
no, your chart shows the dollar value of the stock that was issued, not the number of shares. Therefore the dollar value only went down due to the lower price of the stock. You will probably see it go up again next quarter due to the higher stock price.
In terms of the earnings - company has operating leverage- ie they can grow revenues while decreasing costs. The bull case is they grow earnings at a rapid rate and the 600 PE is artificial. With earnings growth the company can have p/e contraction while having price growth
Hi Joseph, thanks for the interesting video. I still have to criticize you for something you do constantly whenever you analyze a company you like. What you just said about outstanding shares does not make any sense. We literally saw 50 consecutive quarters of increasing outstanding shares and 1 (one single Q!!!) of declining outstanding shares and you pretend like its the most amazing thing a company can do. Same for the stock based compensation. You mentioned 3 consecutive quarters of decreasing stock based compensation and call that great. However, you completely ignore that that has happened at least 4 times over the last few years with the result that in the end, the stock based compensation was always at an all time high. It is really disappointing how you are analyzing graphs and honestly (no offense), the way you are analyzing them is exactly the same way a CEO of a struggling company would defend himself on a CNBC interview after a company reported declining profits. Please keep up the good work and get rid of the bad things that sometimes make it into your video. Dominik
I don't understand this criticism. Of course i'm looking at what they did in the most recent quarter and how it differs and how it's establishing a new trend. They bought back net shares for the first time in 20 years. I did not invest in CRM 20 years ago, i'm investing in it now, looking towards the future. They just approved 20 billion worth of buybacks and going forward the share count should continue to fall.
Hey Joseph, I've been a viewer for years and I love your content, I always watch it the day it's uploaded. However, I believe that it is crucial to learn and understand the ethics of many companies that people invest in. Not necessarily Salesforce in this case, but companies like Nike, Union Pacific, and Disney have put profits over people, and have conducted unethical, antiunion business for years. Im torn between wanting to be an avid investor and a voice for predominately blue collar workers. I'm not telling you what to do with your money, but I think its important for you with the audience you have to make clear that we as investors support motives and ideas through our dollars which are oftentimes given to the wrong companies. While everyone has their opinion, even with the guarantee of massive returns, I refuse to assist in unsafe, unhealthy, and unethical practices.
I think you would find it funny if you got some of the messages I do on this subject. Let me be clear about something. Every business I invest in is flawed morally and ethically. A few examples: Disney: political power, wokeness, pushing the liberal agenda! Nike: Child labor in some country they source from Apple: How dare you do business I China. Union Pacific: anti union, and didn’t you hear about the train derailing! Vici: how can you support gambling! Pepsi: wow, you’re making the entire world obese and killing millions. Amazon: they unfairly compete with small businesses and are anti union! MasterCard: I can’t believe you support a monopoly that charged fees to small businesses. Netflix: dude, it’s literally the worst company ever for not letting me share passwords. Meta: Social media is tearing the fabric of our society apart. On and on and on. You get the point. I would love to solve every social and moral question for my investments but that’s not the world we live in. I’m weighing the pros and cons and I’ll try to avoid investments in companies I believe are truly evil.
@Joseph Carlson After Hours I get exactly what you mean, you gotta pick the least bad option in a lot of cases, I just believe that it's something that a lot of people tuck under the rug that I feel should be discussed more. Figured I'd bring it up in a discussion based manner.
Join Qualtrim today and get the full month as a risk-free trial. Join here: www.patreon.com/josephcarlson
@Joseph Carlson could you do a review on Dominos pizza please? I know you had it in your portfolio a while ago and it's hit 52-week low. Are there risks or long-term headwinds that would make you stay away from it?
Great video btw!! Salesforce is still scary for me due to the reasons you mentioned in the video, and I'll like to watch the trends shift a little longer
How often is Qualtrim updated?
@@JackOfBladze1 Most earnings reports are updated 1-2 hours after earnings, sometimes they can take longer to file SEC reports and it can take up to 2 weeks after earnings for the numbers to be in.
is Qualtrim subscription included in your patreon or do we have to pay for both ?
Thank you in advance for you answer. Great takes as always
The stock market is and has always been the best place to make substantial income. Which is why I still find myself pumping funds into the Stock market and trading aggressively, Away from all the distractions around. I still make profits from my investments, made $260,000 last year.
Agreed !! I am a penny stock trader and I leverage on the volatility of the market for significant returns rather than holding and loosing value to the volatility of the market
Hey I find myself in a fix right now and I need proper ad vise. I have a lump sum in my savings account literally burning a hole in my pocket . I wanna get something started with it but I need help on where and how. You seem to be doing excellent for yourself. I could use some help here.
Actually there is no particular sector i focus on. I just copy trades from US professional trader Julie Anne Hoover. I met her in a seminar in NY and we talked a lot, I have been copying her trades signal ever since then my portfolio has grown at a tremendous pace and she has been very consistent.
Search for her online and send her a message. She is well known for her work because Bloomberg just profiled her. She has a homepage for consultations, so you'll need to ask her about her rates.
There might be an economical turmoil but there is no doubt that this is still the best time to invest.
Best time to invest? thats funny though because in the last four months I have lost more than $47,900 in stock market which is the biggest I have loss since I ventured into stock investment.
you could be right or wrong . i once had similar problem but now its a different ball game for me because I was lucky to have met Katrina Vanrensum , a financial manager and stock expert, I have made more than $165,000 in 6 weeks under her supervisions
Just run a search on her name, and you would see all you need.
Thanks for the info . Found her website and it really impressive
I’m compiling and picking stocks that I’d love to hold on to for a few years before retirement, do you think these stocks would do better over the years? I’d love to retire with at least $2million savings. Now you gotta rely on a pretty good diversification if you must stay green. Currently up 21% and being cautious. Still better deal than letting it sit in savings or checking earning near 0-1% interest.
Well up at 21% in this present market is impressive. I was wondering if investing in a cumulative ETF during this next decade is a sound investment. Or is it better to invest in a distributing ETF (even considering taxes)?
ETFs are cool. My portfolio is very much diversified so it's not like i have a particular fund i invest in. You should probably copy a licensed person more so one with experience of the past bear markets. I copy a chartered financial analyst Amie Christine Shapiro Been quite consistent. My portfolio returned $250k in Q4
With only 350k what do expect people to do ? 10 shares of one of those stocks will not get u anywhere . 3 shares of Vanguard ETF give me a break . Forget the past of 10x stocks ! Those free money days are over ! With 350k just buy a ETF like DIVO with a 5% monthly dividend and add what u can each month .
i am envious i've been in the red for too long even before the dip but would like to ask are you giving her your money or the money stays in your account?
You don't give out funds here. My account only mirrors her trades in real time that's the ideal for this system. The lady I just recommended is a renowned advisor and knows what the heck she's doing. Check her out i think she will explain better.
Hi Joseph, I like your videos, but in this case is in my opinion necessary deeper dive into Salesforce's accounting. Due to their last earnings presentation (link would be probably deleted by UA-cam alghoritm):
Non-GAAP
Operation Margin: 22.5 % (Y/Y +380 bps)
Diluted Earnings Per Share: $5.24 (Y/Y +10%)
GAAP
Operation Margin: 3.3 % (Y/Y +120 bps)
Diluted Earnings Per Share: $0.21 (Y/Y -86%)
It's a HUGE defference between non-GAAP and GAAP numbers.
Due to last slide of their presentation for example Stock-based compensation expense are summaring with income from operations (and also to earnings per share) what in their accounting equal higher income (higher EPS). It's creative accounting, no surprise, that non-GAAP numbers are so different from GAAP numbers.
What do you think about their accounting? 🤔
how about the low ROCE ratios?
I agree with almost everything except your opening statement about a "moat" - it does not have a moat (it has nothing unique and/or easy-replicable compared to other CRMs). Salesforce does have a dominant presence in the market, and is "sticky" as much as any SaaS product is, but that isn't a moat imo.
CRM is mission-critical for a company, and hard to switch out, for sure... but there is a 5 year cycle where companies look around again at the market and WILL switch is there is a cost--saving and/or technology advantage to switch e.g. integration with other products, inflating subscriptions, poor service/support. Many competitors also offer migration tools FROM Salesforce TO their products, so it's a smoother process than it once was.
There are many competitors with comparable features AND lower subscriptions (Salesforce is a behemith, and also very expensive). Salesforce is perceived as "Enterprise software" - there are millions of SMEs that cannot justify SF due to costs-versus-value proposition. They can by no means sit back and relax - the bigger they are, the harder they fall.
In general though, love all your content and sincerity.
Nice video! I also own some CRM and want to add some 😊
Thanks Joseph, great analysis, with facts, the good and the bad.
Each investor decides what is important to him and how much. For me the red flag is a non trustworthy management team. The long trend of stock dilution and the unpredictability of Mark B would keep me awake at night. Sounds to me like another Disney drama, where the business is great, moat, cash flows, but again.. the management. Buffet also stated it's hard to find good businesses with good management.
I'd rather pay the premium and buy Costco and other businesses, which have been doing the right thing all the time, not just last few quarters.
Hi Joseph I’m a follower and a fan of you. I am a new investor and I learned so much from you. I’m wondering if you could tell me the software you use to analyze companies. Thank you
Would love an update after recent sell off
Didn't salesforce have 2 top executives leave? Would that account for the drop in outgoing shares
they probably still got paid for the quarter as a package deal.
great video and insights, thanks for sharing
I am not a very experienced investor, I may be wrong, but couldn’t stock base compensation just be coming down due to the share price declines since 2021?
The debt and cap lease have already doubled, and I'm guessing it could double again because of the current state of the economy. Cash flows will also grow, but not fast enough.
First Union Pacific and now this Joseph's having a good week
As a user and now administrator and user of salesforce… i flippen HATE it and wish it would burn and never see the light again…great stock tho.
Thank you JC. I would of have to wait till the weekend to do a deep dive in the earnings but that vid help. Keep up the good work
It will definitely be interesting to see next quarter if these trends continue. I hope It's the start of a longer term sustainable model for Salesforce.
I think it’s a good situation if they can keep raising margins and doing buybacks.
@@JosephCarlsonAfterHours Looking at qualtrim they have history of having decreasing share-comp followed by increasing share-comp
Anyone else think SBC looks blue and not purple?
Thank you for a great video. I appreciate how Qualtrim shows how Salesforce is risky with its share-compensation. Seeking Alpha definitely does not show this problem which unfortunately misleads investors who do not read a companies financial reports.
Where can I find this Qualtrim??
@@jakeroper1096 is this a serious question?
I watch a few different finance youtubers, each has a unique perspective that i like, but I have to say I find your approach the most sensible and informative out there, I learnt so much over the last year and I built a portfolio im proud of and excited to see how it does over the next few years, cheers bud
What a nice pivot to see with this company!
P/E is damn near 900. Naah, i'm good. At this rate, i rather buy ENPH or TSLA for long term..
Did they switch strategies or was it more bc 6 separate activist company's were pushing them for results?. Another great video thx
@Joseph Carlson could you do a review on Dominos pizza please? I know you had it in your portfolio a while ago and it's hit 52-week low. Are there risks or long-term headwinds that would make you stay away from it?
First view of after hours, nice second Carlson!
in the long-term, bear-market economy can actually be a blessing.
Are we concerned about the low single digit ROIC?
joseph looks like you got something else to add to qualtrum sorry to bad spelling lol
Salesforce has a lot of multi-year licensing agreements. What will happen over the next 12-24 months if businesses continue downsizing their sales organizations? The renewals will look quite different. I predict price increases also will be coming soon.
I never saw any weight on that bar behind you ;-)
I hope the decrease in the number of shares outstanding will continue in the future and and that it isn't only because of the current hiring freeze, and thus a result of the lack of need of giving stock compensation to new employees
Didnt you fire this guy a couple of weeks ago?
At this point and this price in Sales force business they should not be issuing ANY STOCK COMP….. it’s a major red flag. They have the cash and it’s not needed. It’s the sign of a company abusing its share holders
i love CRM..i sold my entire position tho after the earnings..taking profit...looking to re-enter when it retraces
have you reenter?
Great video but don't exagerate about the ability to leave Salesforce. CRM is not ERP! .
no, your chart shows the dollar value of the stock that was issued, not the number of shares. Therefore the dollar value only went down due to the lower price of the stock. You will probably see it go up again next quarter due to the higher stock price.
Their P/E is 672. Do you still think they're trading at a good value?
More to a stock than PE
@@alecgalbraith5604 not in today's high interest env.
Horrible mngmt it’s a no from me
@user-wk2xk6kl8b will do, Joseph Carlson!
Salesforce historically traded at a PE ratio of high 100's , but now its around 600? How is such high PE accepted in the current market?
In terms of the earnings - company has operating leverage- ie they can grow revenues while decreasing costs. The bull case is they grow earnings at a rapid rate and the 600 PE is artificial. With earnings growth the company can have p/e contraction while having price growth
@@yacobplayz6524 great points
What the hell does "creative help" even mean.
Totally biased in my opinion, I'm personally selling at $210
Hi Joseph, thanks for the interesting video. I still have to criticize you for something you do constantly whenever you analyze a company you like. What you just said about outstanding shares does not make any sense. We literally saw 50 consecutive quarters of increasing outstanding shares and 1 (one single Q!!!) of declining outstanding shares and you pretend like its the most amazing thing a company can do. Same for the stock based compensation. You mentioned 3 consecutive quarters of decreasing stock based compensation and call that great. However, you completely ignore that that has happened at least 4 times over the last few years with the result that in the end, the stock based compensation was always at an all time high. It is really disappointing how you are analyzing graphs and honestly (no offense), the way you are analyzing them is exactly the same way a CEO of a struggling company would defend himself on a CNBC interview after a company reported declining profits.
Please keep up the good work and get rid of the bad things that sometimes make it into your video.
Dominik
I don't understand this criticism. Of course i'm looking at what they did in the most recent quarter and how it differs and how it's establishing a new trend. They bought back net shares for the first time in 20 years. I did not invest in CRM 20 years ago, i'm investing in it now, looking towards the future. They just approved 20 billion worth of buybacks and going forward the share count should continue to fall.
Hey Joseph, I've been a viewer for years and I love your content, I always watch it the day it's uploaded. However, I believe that it is crucial to learn and understand the ethics of many companies that people invest in. Not necessarily Salesforce in this case, but companies like Nike, Union Pacific, and Disney have put profits over people, and have conducted unethical, antiunion business for years. Im torn between wanting to be an avid investor and a voice for predominately blue collar workers. I'm not telling you what to do with your money, but I think its important for you with the audience you have to make clear that we as investors support motives and ideas through our dollars which are oftentimes given to the wrong companies. While everyone has their opinion, even with the guarantee of massive returns, I refuse to assist in unsafe, unhealthy, and unethical practices.
Good for you. So what?
Apple installed suicide nets in their 3rd world factories instead of improving their work conditions. Do you not invest in Apple or QQQ or SPY?
I think you would find it funny if you got some of the messages I do on this subject.
Let me be clear about something. Every business I invest in is flawed morally and ethically. A few examples:
Disney: political power, wokeness, pushing the liberal agenda!
Nike: Child labor in some country they source from
Apple: How dare you do business I China.
Union Pacific: anti union, and didn’t you hear about the train derailing!
Vici: how can you support gambling!
Pepsi: wow, you’re making the entire world obese and killing millions.
Amazon: they unfairly compete with small businesses and are anti union!
MasterCard: I can’t believe you support a monopoly that charged fees to small businesses.
Netflix: dude, it’s literally the worst company ever for not letting me share passwords.
Meta: Social media is tearing the fabric of our society apart.
On and on and on. You get the point. I would love to solve every social and moral question for my investments but that’s not the world we live in. I’m weighing the pros and cons and I’ll try to avoid investments in companies I believe are truly evil.
@Joseph Carlson After Hours I get exactly what you mean, you gotta pick the least bad option in a lot of cases, I just believe that it's something that a lot of people tuck under the rug that I feel should be discussed more. Figured I'd bring it up in a discussion based manner.
The SBC goes down for three quarters every year. Maybe this was a bit more than usual but nothing to brag about.
Get those gains, Joseph! 🦾
I can't invest in a company that starts putting celebrities in decision making roles. That's a terrible idea for any large cap company.
Isnt Salesforce paying Matthew McConaughey 10 Million a year
No more crying now blaming Mark