I SOLD Lots of CrowdStrike Weeks Ago | Here's What I Think After the Stock Has PLUNGED | $CRWD
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- Опубліковано 5 вер 2024
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👨💼Brian Feroldi is an author (amzn.to/3JVr9Q0), investor, UA-camr, and financial educator. He's been investing in the stock market since 2004. Brian likes to buy and hold the highest quality companies he can find.
👨💼Brian Stoffel is a writer, investor, UA-camr, and financial educator. He's a teacher at heart. Brian has been investing for over a decade and has written over 4,000 articles for The Motley Fool. Brian plans his life and his investments around “antifragile” principles.
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Watched your previous Crowdstrike videos and first thing I thought of this morning is how you mentioned 1 single breach could tarnish their image. Well, not a breach, but it took down my work computer, my wife’s company’s entire network, and looking at the news, just about the entire world. I’d like to add right now but I am concerned about legal trouble and the tarnish on the brand. I will see how it plays out before deciding. Great job analyzing the company and its risks and trimming when valuation was too high. They could have just as easily not had an issue and kept trucking, but you’re looking pretty smart right now.
Thanks -- it's such a tough risk to measure b/c it's so unpredictable
Well, "the entire world" is a bit of overly dramatic statement. Also not true.
Too be honest the 10% fall doesn’t seem to be enough given the magnitude of the incident and the brand damage it has caused
how about another 10%?
@@sirus312 bit better
Let’s do another 10% after that 😀
@@user-vt9gn5md5r😂 im buying
I already had a 3% position in CRWD and I bought a little more today at $295. My DCA is $202. I believe in the company long term and I believe that this is just a blip on its long term growth.
man i remember seeing comments of people bashing you for trimming in those previous 2 videos, now youre being praised lol channel ready to blow up
@@tachiiderp yes he predicted the update incident 😂
excellent update video....thanks! I traded it this morning; bought at 294 sold at 309.....cut and ran.....good days work....:)
So is it a good idea to buy PUTS options for now until everything clears up?
Great call Brian. Longtime shareholder and fan of CRWD, but they got too arrogant and careless. I recall Kurtz was kind of an ass irt PANW’s replatforming strategy few months ago, ridiculing them that PANW had to give away products. "free is not free" and "good enough is not enough" he said. Kind of took a victory lap on PANW’s bad ER and stock drop. Now he’s on the hot seat and eating crow. What comes around goes around.
Man life will humble us all at some point😅
guy got rekt! Focus on your company, not your competitors!
Crowdstrike failed all the investors and customers big time today. It seems like company that has its solutions used by most fortune 500 companies doesn't understand its own importance and responsibility.
It shows how broken their internal QA processes are to not catch a disaster that caused BSOD on all machines on the first morning of deployment. We are not talking about a rare bug or crash. But an incident that brought so much of the world to standstill. And the communication from the management afterwards is one that of not owning the responsibility or accountability. Sold all the shares. Not coming back until they prove to be a reliable business to own.
thanks for selling your shares. I wish there are more people like you to bring the stock down even further so I can buy more. If you knew how many major security incidents other cybersecurity companies had over the years (eg. Microsoft, Okta) you'd know this is nothing new. The only difference in how a software issue affects the customers.
@@geolykos Thanks for buying the shares, that will surely help reduce future speculative bubbles when Crowdstrike are bankrupted by the tsunami of legal action, and a collapse in confidence they will face in due course. Apparently they had a similar incident on a smaller scale with their Linux system a few months ago, so this is clearly an endemic problem of negligence in their processes, and inadequate software engineering in their systems, which suggests its likely to happen again. Expect a further share price collapse, and a buyout at a token price by a larger rival, probably Microsoft themselves given their previous history with the likes of OpenAI, and others.
Do you offer a copy of that spreadsheet???
You have to factor in the many class action lawsuits that will follow
This will not be good for CRWD. Reputation has been tarnished and will cost a considerable amount to keep customers moving forward. Monday I'm betting many people will be getting out while the getting is good.
You’re trying your best to contain that smile but I can see it quite clearly 😅
I'm not touching this....they would of been better off if itnwas an attack and not their own gross negligence....tge hospital where my wife works shut down...patients were needing g blood and nobody could access it, no meds, even the supply room locked out because everything is scanned and all doors have scanner keys....it was insane. People didn't make it.....massive lawsuits once this is all sorted out.
Busting on ya a bit….you suggested ISRG was substantially overpriced and dumped it , I believe…after earnings MR. market seems to disagree in the shortrun
Bought the falling knife pre-market for $276, up 14% so far.
you better watch crwd closely, when lawsuits start flooding their legal department you better sell it in pre-market where you bought it :)
@@cyfrowymuza It was a trade and I sold the same day, made 14%.
Love the fast video reaction. My sentinel one stock is going up (today).
What does history tell about company failures and accidents with brand tarnished? I assume they do not recover for at least 10 years if I remember for example BP.
Both customers and Mr. Market have very short memories for such events, especially since this was not a failure of the technology. In addition, management is out in front admitting human error and defending the technology. At this valuation, its a buy with a long-term mindset. Even if revenue and margins take a temporary hit, there is a very long runway for this company - without real competition for this full range of services.
Objective Analysis
The problem won't be this quarter, it will be the medium term growth outlook as new logos and module expansion will fade out rapidly. No customer will invite Crowdstrike to tender for cybersecurity contracts for the foreseeable future, as they will be known as the company which caused the greatest IT outage in history. They will need to offer compensation to existing customers, who may not even renew once contract ends, customer attrition will inevitably increase. There is strong competition in the cybersecurity sector, even the endpoint market which Crowdstrike dominates. SolarWinds is an example of what will happen.
Agreed on how it's going to show up later given how the contracts are structured
@@stoffelbrian
By which time this will largely be forgotten.
People have short memories and most businesses make decisions based on logic rather than emotions - those angry about what just happened are unlikely to still be angry at the time their contract expires. At that time, they'll be looking for the best deal available. As for the significance of this event, their anger will not be factor but rather such questions as:
Has this ever happened before?
-No
Is it likely to happen again?
-No
Was it a security risk?
-No
Is there a better alternative?
That last question will be the decider imo, not the events of the last 24 hours.
All great points, you underestimate how entrenched CRWD is in Azure though, switching definitely not easy, i just see an impact in their negotiation power in the midterm thats all
@@antonystringfellow5152 i agree long term they will bounce back but market share will be reduced as other alternatives start to spring up. Tech giants like Microsoft can do it themselves if they really wanted to. They will be slammed with huge lawsuits. Also the problem hasn't been resolved yet
@@antonystringfellow5152 Well, except it has happened before, they did something similar on Linux a few months ago, so Yes it is likely to happen again, and Yes it will be perceived as a Security risk by potential customers.
Great analysis! Kudos!
The big question for me: who will be held accountable for the gigantic financial impact? Hospitals, airports, supermarkets, restaurants … down. I heard about service level agreements, that promise 99,99% availability. One more point: did you hear the CEOs response? No apologies. Looked to me as if he only repeated the lawyers text.
I started a short position on CRWD two weeks ago. Good company with a good business. Stock price is much too high. Bigger software companies will take this space over at some point and put pressure on this smaller company.
I hope we keep getting discounted CRWD!
I think insurance fee issue .
How many actual cyber breaches has CRWD failed to stop over the past decade? This is a glitch, mostly due to MSFT's archaic and rather dreadful OS. Sure there have been some inconveniences here (some very serious for sure. Even possible deaths) but to me all this says is just how much customers have come to rely on CRWD for safety and security. Will this be remembered in a year's time? I doubt it. Humans are fickle and love a good headline. Drop back in a year and tell me I'm wrong. Long CRWD. Also long APPL who are looking pretty good today
should we buy the dip ?
Not if its more a plummet than a dip.
@@colin2utubeit's a chance to buy at a discount though
As a programmer I find it frankly unacceptable that a big firm like Crowdstrike has such little control on possible code mistakes before pushing it to production. Normally, there are couple of layers of automatic controls to see if all code is clean. Therefore I think this is an organizational problem, I think this is going to get a lot worse for Crowdstrike.
What do you think about the regulatory risk and risk of having one company keeping so many businesses running?
I think great opportunity long term, but I sold a good chunk in high 300s. I don’t think I would add now. Best to be patient
Thanks for the fast update Brian . So simply explained and on the point as always !
I'm very fortunate that I'm invested in SENTINELONE and not CROWDSTRIKE. Wouldn't be sure how to act in this situation but I assume I'd tend to sell due the still high valuation and very present uncertainties. Especially the last one regularly doesn't get accepted by the market.
Interesting thoughs. But the "one single event can so insane damage to the company"-factor has to applied to all cybersecurity (and maybe also to all critical cloud service) companies. Humans make mistakes, and software will always at some point show a bug that didn't occur in all testing before... the problem of our interconnected world is the magnitude of the impact. Not to mention a wanted attack and its damage. But it feels to me that more and more this will be a risk we all, the user side, have to be aware of and try to prepare for. The conclusion, I think, should not be that investors get too scared to invest in such companies - or even worse: such companies get too scared to offer such services.
What is most concerning isn't that they have suffered from some error in process or software, but that they've done this before (on a smaller scale with their Linux system), and haven't learned any lessons on phased rollouts, or backout processes. All of which suggests this is likely to happen again, assuming they survive this incident.
I think MSFT and others are going to either have multiple vendors or do the cybersec in-house, regardless crwd will be summoned by politicians and be dragged by risk.
Not sure what to do yet in Europe its all over the news. Its effecting flights, doctors, government, Olympics. It going to weigh heavily on the brand. Maybe an etf is better for the cyber security space.
Timely video, I sold because it was priced for perfection and perfection isn’t coming. Too much risk for my liking, had to book the gain
I see more downgrades and little chance of an upbeat forecast at earnings time. Dumped my position at $303 for 275 pct profit in 5 months. Betting i can buy back in cheaper later...maybe after earnings and conference call.
Bought.
okta had a breach back in Oct 23 and two months later the stock recovered to above where it was prior to the breach. i imagine the market will forget about this too in a few months and the stock will be back to where it was.
Falling knife imo
I started a position... Why not
Looking fresh as a 🌼
Thoughts on SEDG. It’s back to its 2016 support.
I've never invested in anything before but I"m hoping to start with CRWD on Monday. I thought the dip would have been a lot more but the shares are still quite high.
Thats a terrible investment strategy ... "Buy into stocks that haven't fallen as much as expected", is the epitome of catching a falling knife ! I expect some large stakeholder is propping up the share price while they're desperately looking for an exit.
Lots of new risk due to the update crash. Future Margins are definitely at risk. I already reduced my position some weeks ago. I might reduce further.
Crowstrike is garbage. I have no faith in their software solutions. Would not buy,
No idea why this type of error could occur affected trillion dollar business world wide, MSFT should be blamed too as the parallel run on any system is mandatory. It made sharepoint garbage never synchronize with other software. Shy away from both. Headaches are far greater than benefits
Took roughly 100% gain and will reinvest if stock continues to fall..
100% gain followed by a 100% fall ! There's a beautiful symmetry right there ! (except one 100% is twice as big as the other !)
Still sucks massively. Fallout is unknown.
Selling a stock because of a small incident that’s a trader’s not an investor’s mindset.
Bought some more CRWD. If Microsoft was held accountable or got a SELL rating for every cybersecurity failure it wouldn’t exist now.
Microsoft is a lot larger, more established, economically important and diversified business than Crowdstrike, it’s also 10X more profitable and the world runs on its OS. Especially at a time when tech is trading at such high valuations and all eyes are on these companies I wouldn’t blame shareholders for selling especially when Crowdstrike has lots of competitors. When you’re trading at 75 times forward earnings and 18 times sales for a company that just became profitable that’s called pricing perfection into a companies future lol It will be interesting to see what comes of it
after 5 hours at the airport, looking at how people were wrestling crowds with work by paper, no atm was working i didn't see it small incident.
@@junkeewu sorry you had issues but the damage was not irrepairable. It wasn't a breach, it was a mistake. Microsoft and Okta both had multiple irrepairable security incidents over the years but their products just dont affect the customers as much as Crowdstrike's
This "small incident" was the biggest tech failure in history, cost billions of dollars, and probably some deaths in delayed hospital procedures.
the aftereffect doesn't matter. From a software perspective it was only a miss on a null check as they're running C++. It was not a breach or a security issue. It's Windows that needs to be able to recover from fatal failures. I'm sure the people like yourself will see it as a major failure and might not go with Crowdstrike in the future but there are no alternatives no matter what everyone thinks.
Bro show me where their net is 3B ? 3B is their sales. Stop spreading misinformation. I doubt you were an Analyst.
$3.7B in net cash and short term investments (CDs), $0.7B in long term debt. $3.7 MINUS $0.7 = $3.0B in net cash
Net cash is not net income . In the video, he has income statement up not Balance sheet and the person clearly says , Their income is 3.3B . Which its not.
@@mobilephonesolutions6922 Ah, I see -- I said "income" when I meant "revenue". Nothing else changed. You wouldn't find FCF margins by multiplying net income by margins, it's revenue times margins.
Amazing time to buy 🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤡
This is still the leader. I’m a buyer.
Any cybersec company is prone to serious reputation damage with a breach, so don't invest in cybersec? There is nothing new provided by this insight that is not common sense. This feels like an implied I told you so, does not sit well to be honest. Even a broken clock can brag twice a day about getting things right.