I was looking for real time data on chipotle but this is 2 weeks old seems there is no one on youtube talking about chipotle I was looking for this stock list they were added to any ideas what its called?
Yup and I would imagine with 7000+ (in the future) stores and no debt that FCF has no where to go but back to shareholders. Hopefully they become serial buy back pushers, like auto zone.
Good analysis Brian. Valuation has always kept me from buying back into CMG. It just rides the rails of that 50PE and never seems to correct to a more rational 25 or so. There is little margin of safety for CMG for anyone entering the stock here even after the 25% decline from its ATH. You mentioned approaching 4,000 stores but McDonald's has 13,500 stores alone in the USA. Chipotle looks to expand internationally. Could they possibly build 5000 or 8000 US stores and another 5000 outside the USA over the next 10 or 20 years? Thoughts? Also they continue to have pricing power. I remember when they were pushing to get 2M per store in revenues and now they exceed 3M. There are some positive points to the investing thesis but that valuation always scares me. One day if the market decides its been paying way too much for CMG and says 25 is the right multiple it instantly gets sliced 50%. Tough one.
i agree. But it is still at early stage. They plan to double the stores to 7000 plus they plan to increase revenue per store to $4m...these are growth stock with aggressive expansion plans from last 2 years...they are doing well during high interest. Given now we are expecting fed to lower the rates....it will help them to expand their business plus increase customer foot print to stores...But valuation is still pricey...anywhere around 35 to 40 pe should be fine to jump in.
Trends are towards healthy living. I never eat fast food but if I did I would only go to chipotle. However we also have to consider a slowing economy and increase unemployment. Solid company that should do well long term. I’ll buy some shares if I can get a decent valuation
Great point brought up how can free cash flow increase if they have to spend on opening stores so the question is how can they still continue to grow double digits and increase free cash flow without opening stores
I bought the split and sold it before it fell this far. I'll come back at the bottom. Stocks aren't gems. Even long term. If it's reversing gains, GTFO and come back. You don't get benefits for riding out a flush...derrr. You can trade your holdings and still have a long term goal. Its Sunday 7/28 and I see $49.60 ask only platform.
Would have been good to hear what your take on what you think is a reasonable growth rate given the maturity of the business, and in turn what you think the the intrinsic value is.
McDonald’s cost as much chipotle. Why not opt for chipotle instead of McDonald or any other fast food. Fast casual and healthier tastier option is chipotle.
Chipotle food bourne illness - criminal charges related to foodborne illness outbreaks that occurred between 2015 and 2018. The outbreaks sickened more than 1,100 peopleChipotle now prepares certain ingredients ahead of time in centralized locations
I was looking for real time data on chipotle but this is 2 weeks old seems there is no one on youtube talking about chipotle I was looking for this stock list they were added to any ideas what its called?
Thanks… also, very notable that they carry NO Debt!
Yup and I would imagine with 7000+ (in the future) stores and no debt that FCF has no where to go but back to shareholders. Hopefully they become serial buy back pushers, like auto zone.
I wouldn’t call $4.28B “No Debt”. Especially when cash is lower at $1.49B
Now what 😢 would like to see anothee video for you on and update
Thanks for covering this.
Very good analysis Brian.
Good analysis Brian. Valuation has always kept me from buying back into CMG. It just rides the rails of that 50PE and never seems to correct to a more rational 25 or so. There is little margin of safety for CMG for anyone entering the stock here even after the 25% decline from its ATH. You mentioned approaching 4,000 stores but McDonald's has 13,500 stores alone in the USA. Chipotle looks to expand internationally. Could they possibly build 5000 or 8000 US stores and another 5000 outside the USA over the next 10 or 20 years? Thoughts? Also they continue to have pricing power. I remember when they were pushing to get 2M per store in revenues and now they exceed 3M. There are some positive points to the investing thesis but that valuation always scares me. One day if the market decides its been paying way too much for CMG and says 25 is the right multiple it instantly gets sliced 50%. Tough one.
i agree. But it is still at early stage. They plan to double the stores to 7000 plus they plan to increase revenue per store to $4m...these are growth stock with aggressive expansion plans from last 2 years...they are doing well during high interest. Given now we are expecting fed to lower the rates....it will help them to expand their business plus increase customer foot print to stores...But valuation is still pricey...anywhere around 35 to 40 pe should be fine to jump in.
Trends are towards healthy living. I never eat fast food but if I did I would only go to chipotle. However we also have to consider a slowing economy and increase unemployment. Solid company that should do well long term. I’ll buy some shares if I can get a decent valuation
Thanks for covering a great business outside your portfolio.
Great point brought up how can free cash flow increase if they have to spend on opening stores so the question is how can they still continue to grow double digits and increase free cash flow without opening stores
I bought the split and sold it before it fell this far. I'll come back at the bottom. Stocks aren't gems. Even long term. If it's reversing gains, GTFO and come back. You don't get benefits for riding out a flush...derrr. You can trade your holdings and still have a long term goal. Its Sunday 7/28 and I see $49.60 ask only platform.
Would have been good to hear what your take on what you think is a reasonable growth rate given the maturity of the business, and in turn what you think the the intrinsic value is.
McDonald’s cost as much chipotle. Why not opt for chipotle instead of McDonald or any other fast food. Fast casual and healthier tastier option is chipotle.
Yes, too expensive. Better to look for the next CMG instead
Chipotle food bourne illness - criminal charges related to foodborne illness outbreaks that occurred between 2015 and 2018. The outbreaks sickened more than 1,100 peopleChipotle now prepares certain ingredients ahead of time in centralized locations
CEO is retiring, there will be different hands on the money soon.
yo we need a reverse DCF analysis on the entire nasdaq , LOL
your not good at answering simple questions without over explaining blah blah blah
Growth? Man all your session keep ignoring the fact of growth! We have a declining economy .. how will they grow when people spend less???
Yet they just grew 13%. And the economy grew last quarter 2.8%.
Plenty of companies grow in recessionary environments. McDonalds historically has done well in these environments.
Food is primary need