Should do an update post earnings. Real time annualized revenue is $1.5B now, price is lower, growth rate is over 50% currently. I think the stock is likely to triple to $48 a share within 3 years.
Mann I felt like a kid is a candy store when I saw the hims thumbnail. As a fairly new subscriber to your channel I've watched a lot of your videos and I respect your research and analysis. I always hoped you'd do a video on hims and it's finally here!. Hims is by far my largest investment so it's always nice to see a new perspective on the company. With that being said, I think analyst are being way way to conservative on this company’s growth prospects. With the launch of their recent weigh loss solutions and many new products coming in the pipeline, I believe hims will crush these estimates year after year!
This is a terrific video and walkthrough of the theory behind your framework. One way of expressing moats in a reverse DCF is to flex the number of high-growth years in the first phase. EG MSFT moat might be worth 12 elevated years, LULU HIMS, and dare I say NIKE maybe 7 or 8. after all, the purpose of a moat is to make it take longer to storm the castle while we round up allies for the defense
it would be good to add the scale of points you give. Sometimes the maximum points are 1, other times 2 and other 3.... so it is sometimes hard to follow when you give points.... Can you specify this ?
Selling generic products gives hims pricing power. The risk of legislation or health side effects are common and to be expected with any pharmacy. I think this actually adds to their moat since Amazon may be less willing to align their brand with products that have health risks
Great comment and totally agree, those moat concerns are easy to ‘stab’ the stock down but big tech like Amazon will never risk their image for uncertain risks like health. Also, Americans don’t like to give their health data to big tech or the info their genitals aren’t working properly. HIMS has fenomenaal branding and independent/anonymous product shipping. A trusted health partner for every young American, I think
Hims and other compounding pharmacies are only allowed to make GLP-1-based medications because the FDA has declared them in shortage. If/when supply and demand normalizes for these drugs, compounding pharmacies will not be able to sell them and these meds will be subject to normal exclusivity rules. GLP-1s should not be a thesis for owning it.
Thanks Brian. I would consider netwok effect (more data to improve precription AI) and low cost production (maybe not the products, but process side) in moat.
Brian they have a really sweet flywheel also, as the active ingredient in the hair loss medication is finasteride. Which has been know to have a side effect of Erectile Disfunction. Hook em with bald medication keep em coming for the ED meds😅
You are wrong. And everyone has said this for years, yet we’re still awaiting these so called “easy entrants.” If you actually looked into their operations you’d understand that no one has the ability to enter easily and every day it gets even harder. At this point I believe the chance of serious competition in their vertical hyperbolically approaches zero.
@@brianbirnbaum9760 I have looked quite closely, amazon is going to eat their lunch and prices will be pushed down. Best of luck though to all holders.
maybe you can improve your reverse dcf calculator so that you can input share dilution rate and that is reflected as well? instead of just guessing and adding that 4%
The TAM of sick care is so huge and that allows HIMs maintaining a high growth rate. With zero debt and growing cash, HIMS will start buying back shares. At worst, HIMS will be acquired by Amazon.
now the antifragile score is biased toward safer blue chip companies like amazon. the valuation in terms of growth is also much harder to be sure for smaller companies like hims where especially for growth, disruptor companies, any growth or death can happen. One big part of upside for the company lies in whether the technology platform can create new demand, kind of like how coke was able to be consumed to an extent that was unanticipated.
You’re not taking into account the GLP-1 that is offered and going to boost revenue, profitability, moat and free cash flow. Ozempic is a huge deal. Second to generative AI. Look at Eli Lilly. The eatimates for the company are too low. They will be bringing in 3 billion plus for 2026.
Funny to see this now, they literally had a FCF-margin of 15% this quarter, so it is doable already. And 4% Dilution over time is so BS, they were just getting profitable. In a few years they will buy back more than they dilute.
This would make sense if back of the napkin math was how you valued companies. The problem is you haven’t come to understand how difficult it is to replicate what they’re doing. I have almost no confidence that Amazon wants to spend the time, energy, and resources required to build out infrastructure required to pull this off. I agree with your analysis otherwise. But I think you’re missing a key element in thinking that it’s easy to replicate what they’re doing with efficiency and scale.
It’s no surprise to me that their making money. so many investors have dismissed this company as an ED company. But if you dig deep you’ll see that they’re so much more. Hims is disrupting the massive healthcare industry, needlessly to say this is a generational buy in my opinion
Maybe Amazon could enter this space but they have already said how incredibly hard that would be, but do not underestimate how lazy people are and if popping pills allows you to keep on living a shitty lazy lifestyle and keep you 'healthy' they will rather than make real changes. HIMS is the one stock I have I think could make me actually rich in 10 to 15 years time
It is a company that relies on spending a fortune to push unproven products. I would be very weary of legal liability down the road. I would recommend anyone who gets in this company watch it like a hawk as everything could change extremely rapidly.
Cool that’s what everyone said the last three years. Still waiting on that growth to slow. If you did any work you’d understand. But your analysis is so lazy it’s reduce to a single product they offer.
Should do an update post earnings. Real time annualized revenue is $1.5B now, price is lower, growth rate is over 50% currently. I think the stock is likely to triple to $48 a share within 3 years.
Fantastic video, please do more videos of you running companies through your checklist.
Thank you!
Absolutely loved this! So helpful to see you run through a company and how you look at the Anti Fragile checklist. Thanks Stoffel!
Thank you for bringing back the anti fragile checklist videos. I really enjoy the videos where you run a company through your checklist
Glad you like it
Mann I felt like a kid is a candy store when I saw the hims thumbnail. As a fairly new subscriber to your channel I've watched a lot of your videos and I respect your research and analysis. I always hoped you'd do a video on hims and it's finally here!. Hims is by far my largest investment so it's always nice to see a new perspective on the company. With that being said, I think analyst are being way way to conservative on this company’s growth prospects. With the launch of their recent weigh loss solutions and many new products coming in the pipeline, I believe hims will crush these estimates year after year!
Glad you like it. I don't doubt the growth opportunities, but whether or not HIMS will **profitably** grab market share from those opportunities
Great detail and extremely logical.
Waiting for NU Holdings going through AntiFragile Investing Framework!
$HIMS is one of the most undervalued stocks in Wall Street along with $OLPX and $HNST.
This is a terrific video and walkthrough of the theory behind your framework. One way of expressing moats in a reverse DCF is to flex the number of high-growth years in the first phase. EG MSFT moat might be worth 12 elevated years, LULU HIMS, and dare I say NIKE maybe 7 or 8. after all, the purpose of a moat is to make it take longer to storm the castle while we round up allies for the defense
Great video Brian. Thanks. Waiting your video on SoFi.
Can you please do a video on AFRM(Affirm)?
it would be good to add the scale of points you give. Sometimes the maximum points are 1, other times 2 and other 3.... so it is sometimes hard to follow when you give points.... Can you specify this ?
Selling generic products gives hims pricing power.
The risk of legislation or health side effects are common and to be expected with any pharmacy. I think this actually adds to their moat since Amazon may be less willing to align their brand with products that have health risks
Great comment and totally agree, those moat concerns are easy to ‘stab’ the stock down but big tech like Amazon will never risk their image for uncertain risks like health. Also, Americans don’t like to give their health data to big tech or the info their genitals aren’t working properly. HIMS has fenomenaal branding and independent/anonymous product shipping. A trusted health partner for every young American, I think
I agree with everything you guys said here. Will assume moat gets better until proven otherwise.
Can we do a refresh on hims please
Hims and other compounding pharmacies are only allowed to make GLP-1-based medications because the FDA has declared them in shortage. If/when supply and demand normalizes for these drugs, compounding pharmacies will not be able to sell them and these meds will be subject to normal exclusivity rules. GLP-1s should not be a thesis for owning it.
Hims also sell Ozempic and Wegovy. they are just out of stock atm
100%. Don’t base your thesis on this company around GLP-1.
Anyone buying Hims for this reason doesn’t even understand the business anyway.
Great video. If at all possible, can you do PYPL ?
Thanks for evaluating $HIMS stock. I am a huge fan of this stock.
Great to have the antifragile checklist review back 👍
More of such deep dive analysis videos please, Brians! Great value
I really don't like how most youtubers analyze stocks. I kove how you do it though. I'll be coming back often
Oh man !! I I really wish to have found out about this channel just before going to the Uni with all the debt I had to. Top-notch valuation.
How are Okta and Docusign doing these days? Could you review those?
Hims and hers is a generational buying opportunity. Life altering stock for sure
Thanks Brian. I would consider netwok effect (more data to improve precription AI) and low cost production (maybe not the products, but process side) in moat.
Brian they have a really sweet flywheel also, as the active ingredient in the hair loss medication is finasteride. Which has been know to have a side effect of Erectile Disfunction.
Hook em with bald medication keep em coming for the ED meds😅
How did u get from 16% to 20% implied growth rate by (what it looks like) merely looking at growth rate of diluted shares outstanding?
Great analysis 💪
What a quality of the video. This is just outstanding. Thank you for that work!
interested in hims, but also unconvinced. hard to balance amazing growth potential against what seems to be a unproven moat(s)
Love the new format!!! Thanks for the video!
Thank you for doing these again. Your best content imo.
Fantastic video thanks again Brian
great stuff, same reason I didn't invest despite so much encouragement to do so, the moat is weak.
You are wrong. And everyone has said this for years, yet we’re still awaiting these so called “easy entrants.”
If you actually looked into their operations you’d understand that no one has the ability to enter easily and every day it gets even harder. At this point I believe the chance of serious competition in their vertical hyperbolically approaches zero.
@@brianbirnbaum9760 I have looked quite closely, amazon is going to eat their lunch and prices will be pushed down. Best of luck though to all holders.
Great call! Up big time
I liked the video until you looked at analyst estimates. Those estimates have always been WAY too low. Why don´t you do your own revenue estimates?
I'm in at $7 from back in August. At that price almost a no brainer. Not sure I would buy today at this price.
Thanks for this.
You’re the man Brian
Great video. As always.
More of these great analysis videos please!
maybe you can improve your reverse dcf calculator so that you can input share dilution rate and that is reflected as well? instead of just guessing and adding that 4%
The TAM of sick care is so huge and that allows HIMs maintaining a high growth rate. With zero debt and growing cash, HIMS will start buying back shares. At worst, HIMS will be acquired by Amazon.
Thank you
I think quarter by quarter things get more clearer..
Big fan of the channel rebrand including the changes to your editing style. Much more professional. Good stuff.
Great review. Great hair.
I’m a hims bull and 0 in debt is incorrect they have 11.2 mil in debt
now the antifragile score is biased toward safer blue chip companies like amazon. the valuation in terms of growth is also much harder to be sure for smaller companies like hims where especially for growth, disruptor companies, any growth or death can happen. One big part of upside for the company lies in whether the technology platform can create new demand, kind of like how coke was able to be consumed to an extent that was unanticipated.
Can I give something stronger than a like? Because this is great content Brian. I'll be sharing on X.
Thanks
You’re not taking into account the GLP-1 that is offered and going to boost revenue, profitability, moat and free cash flow. Ozempic is a huge deal. Second to generative AI. Look at Eli Lilly. The eatimates for the company are too low. They will be bringing in 3 billion plus for 2026.
Please make a video on Five9 🙏🏻
Funny to see this now, they literally had a FCF-margin of 15% this quarter, so it is doable already. And 4% Dilution over time is so BS, they were just getting profitable. In a few years they will buy back more than they dilute.
Great video!
Great video. Is it easy to create the Reverse discounted cash flow analysis to Excel or are you able to provide a link? Thanks
You know your numbers but I think you don't understand the business and where it's headed
Exactly. This isn’t a valuation. It’s a thought exercise.
This would make sense if back of the napkin math was how you valued companies. The problem is you haven’t come to understand how difficult it is to replicate what they’re doing. I have almost no confidence that Amazon wants to spend the time, energy, and resources required to build out infrastructure required to pull this off.
I agree with your analysis otherwise. But I think you’re missing a key element in thinking that it’s easy to replicate what they’re doing with efficiency and scale.
Great education video. I'm shocked HIMS makes profits, perhaps resonates with the tiktok generation
It’s no surprise to me that their making money. so many investors have dismissed this company as an ED company. But if you dig deep you’ll see that they’re so much more. Hims is disrupting the massive healthcare industry, needlessly to say this is a generational buy in my opinion
Maybe Amazon could enter this space but they have already said how incredibly hard that would be, but do not underestimate how lazy people are and if popping pills allows you to keep on living a shitty lazy lifestyle and keep you 'healthy' they will rather than make real changes.
HIMS is the one stock I have I think could make me actually rich in 10 to 15 years time
It is a company that relies on spending a fortune to push unproven products. I would be very weary of legal liability down the road. I would recommend anyone who gets in this company watch it like a hawk as everything could change extremely rapidly.
The side effects of the drugs they sell automatically make you a customer of the next drug.. it is quite viscious
I’m sorry so viagra is unproven?
This is nonsense.
just another hair loss product with the same ingredient's. Its just hype and like you said good at marketing, it will also fail sooner or later.
You have no clue what your talking about.
Cool that’s what everyone said the last three years. Still waiting on that growth to slow.
If you did any work you’d understand. But your analysis is so lazy it’s reduce to a single product they offer.
What a waste