@Ciaran FromLondon i actualy predicted the same figure as Helmut, its not hard to fiugure on statistics and enthusiasms, really awsome to see this happening again ;)
@@michaelwagner302 "He literally says trump will win in the video right at the end" It appears that you are telling me that in this video made on November 21 he predicts that in the election (held on November 8) he predicted Trump would win. Is that what you are saying.
@@ajexb1542 "theres a vid of him saying trump would win.." He did claim that Trump would win the popular vote, which was wrong. He also has said that he just assumes the winner of the popular vote wins the Electoral College. So technically he was correct in saying Trump would win, but only because he was incorrect on two major things, one of which was his actual theory. His theory led him to conclude Trump would win the POPULAR vote. That was his real prediction. Dupes do not realize what really went on. Perhaps he also predicted in 1962 that John Kennedy would not beat Goldwater in 1964 because Goldwater was so appealing to voters, and he can brag that his claim there was brilliant, too.
Very smart man. I have him as a professor at stony brook, he recently told us about how he used this same model and ran every election since (i believe) 1912, and got all of them right except for the election of 1960. That's something like a 95% accuracy rating. Very impressive.
The part about cycles is sine-wave analysis, Goldman Sachs used it for their Principal Strategies Group in proprietary bets across currencies, commodities, and other instruments. We need to re-form our education system to teach our kids about emotional intelligence and increase focus on statistical analysis and critical thinking -- particularly important given this age of mainstream media clowning and psychological manipulation.,
I love the tepid applause at the end as he announces with certitude that Trump will win! Imagine the cacophony of cheers if he had called it erroneously for Hillary! Good ol' Ted Talks!
Doesn't this mean that every time a party incumbent runs uncontested within their own party, he should be relected? Therefore, the USA should've had more 3 term presidents before the passage of the 22nd ammendment? And some of the politics graphs are logical: major shifts around the civil war/15th ammendment, shifts around the great depression and 19th ammendment, and a large shift around the Civil Rights Act and WW2, the period when baby boobers(largest generation) first had the opportunity to vote.
Why is it that people are saying he was right in 2016 when by his own standard he was wrong? He specifically said he forecasted the popular vote winner in each of those 5 elections but Trump lost the popular vote. Either he was wrong about Trump or wrong about Gore, choose one
No. He does not use popular vote to forecast the winner. He uses the electoral college. He only said that he got the popular vote right in those 5 predictions because one of his predictions was actually wrong. Bush won not Gore. Btw he is predicting another Trump win.
Lichtman’s model isn’t a model. It’s just his opinion based on 13 topics. They’re totally subjective. Lichtman said Trump has no Charisma. That’s wildly inaccurate. I prefer this guy’s math based only and it has been far more successful than Lichtman’s bologna
@@Valchee9192631770 "The whole world"? Hahaha. No one is asking about it. There is no voter fraud. It's just something sore losers who voted for Trump are crying about now.
@@Deleted1 sad, if you're gonna drag yourself down so be it but bringing others down with you is just cowardly. I'm sure you hope Russia pulls through for you all again
Andrew Jones Because New York and Los Angeles are the two biggest cities and they're 90% liberal. The electoral college was set up in such a way where California and New York don't overpower the power of Idaho or Michigan.
But this time he has more supporters than he had back then plus Biden with dementia. Since when do we elect a president with Alzheimer’s it’s clear he has it
Are you an American? If you are then you should be worried about crazy Joe. That man is unfit for any office job, his mind is deteriorating fast. Plus, the left is totally insane. Now, if you're not American, then you shouldn't worry at all. Trump is the only president who wants to put the US out of other countries' domestic issues.
@Ivan Chernyshev Biden 5 years ago was another man. He even had strength in his voice. His eyes, the way he looks, that's different too. It's not just aging, the man is lost. You don't need a doctor to actually see that and compare it to older videos (you don't need to go back in time to his prime), just 5 years ago.
Who's here after he predicted Trump to be a 91% certainty of winning 2020?
@Ciaran FromLondon i actualy predicted the same figure as Helmut, its not hard to fiugure on statistics and enthusiasms, really awsome to see this happening again ;)
Yup, me too... and my research shows he has credibility.
Exactly for the same reason :)
😂🤣😂
LOL yes yes well with 98.6% probability
This guy is underrated! He successfully predicted the Trump win of 2016. So let's see what he predicts for 2020👏
"He successfully predicted the Trump win of 2016. "
No, he did not you dupe. He got 2016 WRONG.
@@kensandale243 theres a vid of him saying trump would win..
@@kensandale243 He literally says trump will win in the video right at the end
@@michaelwagner302 "He literally says trump will win in the video right at the end"
It appears that you are telling me that in this video made on November 21 he predicts that in the election (held on November 8) he predicted Trump would win. Is that what you are saying.
@@ajexb1542 "theres a vid of him saying trump would win.."
He did claim that Trump would win the popular vote, which was wrong. He also has said that he just assumes the winner of the popular vote wins the Electoral College. So technically he was correct in saying Trump would win, but only because he was incorrect on two major things, one of which was his actual theory.
His theory led him to conclude Trump would win the POPULAR vote. That was his real prediction. Dupes do not realize what really went on.
Perhaps he also predicted in 1962 that John Kennedy would not beat Goldwater in 1964 because Goldwater was so appealing to voters, and he can brag that his claim there was brilliant, too.
This man is a genius. The implications of his insights are astounding.
Very smart man. I have him as a professor at stony brook, he recently told us about how he used this same model and ran every election since (i believe) 1912, and got all of them right except for the election of 1960. That's something like a 95% accuracy rating. Very impressive.
Biden 2020
The part about cycles is sine-wave analysis, Goldman Sachs used it for their Principal Strategies Group in proprietary bets across currencies, commodities, and other instruments. We need to re-form our education system to teach our kids about emotional intelligence and increase focus on statistical analysis and critical thinking -- particularly important given this age of mainstream media clowning and psychological manipulation.,
Biden 2020. Get your friends registered to vote
Polygon Window - Surfing on Sine Waves.
He predicted a 91% chance of a Trump victory. It's very possible to me because Biden is so pitiful and pathetic.
Exactly!
@Janet A "real republicans" the criminality, insanity, all that is on the democratside
@Kalaps And where did u get that from?
@Janet A Is that why more people are supporting trump than in 2016?
@Janet A those are rinos, they are neo conservatives
I love the tepid applause at the end as he announces with certitude that Trump will win! Imagine the cacophony of cheers if he had called it erroneously for Hillary! Good ol' Ted Talks!
Doesn't matter, Biden will win in 2020. Have Faith, keep it in your prayers. You can't be a Christian and vote for Donald Trump.
Do the right thing Chris
@@happiness9752 How bout you leave those determinations up to God, pal. Good night.
@@christopherwatson6305 Looks like God has spoken, then.
@@DanielOkulitch How many unhatched chickens have you counted? We shall see...
You’re wrong in 2020. Your model gives way too much priority to the incumbent.
I want to go to stony brook just to meet him
As long as you vote Biden 2020 I'll support you
Who's here after Joe Biden defied his odds?
Use Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys. That’s how.
Doesn't this mean that every time a party incumbent runs uncontested within their own party, he should be relected? Therefore, the USA should've had more 3 term presidents before the passage of the 22nd ammendment? And some of the politics graphs are logical: major shifts around the civil war/15th ammendment, shifts around the great depression and 19th ammendment, and a large shift around the Civil Rights Act and WW2, the period when baby boobers(largest generation) first had the opportunity to vote.
UA-cam pulls up videos at optimum moments doesn't it?
Why is it that people are saying he was right in 2016 when by his own standard he was wrong? He specifically said he forecasted the popular vote winner in each of those 5 elections but Trump lost the popular vote. Either he was wrong about Trump or wrong about Gore, choose one
No. He does not use popular vote to forecast the winner. He uses the electoral college. He only said that he got the popular vote right in those 5 predictions because one of his predictions was actually wrong. Bush won not Gore. Btw he is predicting another Trump win.
Biden 2020
Lichtman's model predicts Biden, and Norpoth picks Trump. As far as know both have been in lockstep w/ each other until 2020.
Yep
Lichtman’s model isn’t a model. It’s just his opinion based on 13 topics. They’re totally subjective. Lichtman said Trump has no Charisma. That’s wildly inaccurate. I prefer this guy’s math based only and it has been far more successful than Lichtman’s bologna
@@liwi513 hope you didn't bet too much
@@ReaganThatcher Oops, look like Lichtman is right AGAIN.
@@ReaganThatchershould’ve listened to Lichtman. Same thing is gonna happen again when his 2024 prediction is proven right.
If you guys bought this I have one word for you: overfitting. As valuable as anything he said in this lecture.
Kamala didnt even have to win a primary. 😨
So if the democrats put Bernie rather than Clinton they would have done better???
No, Bernie actually loses even worse.
Biden 2020
Trump 2020
You misspelled Biden... Biden 2020, come on Maury, you're better than that.
Helmut Norpoth is a political scientist, Allan Lichtman isn't.
If that’s so then why is trump losing
@@karenmiller6987 Because of voter fraud. The whole world is asking itself what the heck is going on in the US.
@@Valchee9192631770 "The whole world"? Hahaha. No one is asking about it. There is no voter fraud. It's just something sore losers who voted for Trump are crying about now.
@@eidorian101 Are you from America?
@@Valchee9192631770 Born and raised in the U.S.
What country are you from?
Maaan he sounds like Vince Mcmahon
Biden 2020
Alan Lichtman is better!
Because he supports your candidate!
@@Deleted1 put aside your pride, it's time to vote your morals. Biden 2020
@@happiness9752 Yes trump 2020, already got over 20 people to vote trump, i live in the swing state of michigan, gonna try to get to 100
@@Deleted1 sad, if you're gonna drag yourself down so be it but bringing others down with you is just cowardly. I'm sure you hope Russia pulls through for you all again
@@happiness9752 we shall never surrender to the chinese and russian infiltrators who want biden to win, including putin
But he lost the popular vote.
Andrew Jones Because New York and Los Angeles are the two biggest cities and they're 90% liberal. The electoral college was set up in such a way where California and New York don't overpower the power of Idaho or Michigan.
If my aunty had bollocks she'd be my uncle. That means your point is irrelevant
so
@Janet A No, it will never be abolished
But this time he has more supporters than he had back then plus Biden with dementia. Since when do we elect a president with Alzheimer’s it’s clear he has it
Took his class at SBU. He is prejudice in my opinion and is not that great of a lecturer.
Maybe you were not smart enough to understand him😂 I took his class and he is excellent.
Nah mate. I took his class and he was great. Maybe you don't like him.
KARMA prejudice? What do you mean by that.
Was his student. Did really well in his course. Sometimes hard to understand. Can understand why some students feel that way.
I now predict that you are a liberal democrat by a 98.3% margin
AM I CORRECT?
A genius from germany :-) I just hope his formula is wrong this time and that donald twittler will not be re-elected
Are you an American? If you are then you should be worried about crazy Joe. That man is unfit for any office job, his mind is deteriorating fast. Plus, the left is totally insane. Now, if you're not American, then you shouldn't worry at all. Trump is the only president who wants to put the US out of other countries' domestic issues.
ThePentadactyl Man what will happen if Biden is elected? I’m just curious of your opinion.
Trump 2020
@Ivan Chernyshev Have you seen how Biden talks and what he says? Reagan was Speedy Gonzales in comparison.
@Ivan Chernyshev Biden 5 years ago was another man. He even had strength in his voice. His eyes, the way he looks, that's different too. It's not just aging, the man is lost. You don't need a doctor to actually see that and compare it to older videos (you don't need to go back in time to his prime), just 5 years ago.
Trump 2020