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Frans Cronje on the future of South Africa | Solutions With David Ansara Podcast #15
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- Опубліковано 14 сер 2024
- South Africa is in the midst of a profound crisis. How will the country fare over the next decade and what should individuals, families and communities do to prepare themselves for an increasingly uncertain future?
In this episode of 'Solutions With David Ansara', I speak to my colleague at the Centre For Risk Analysis, Dr Frans Cronje, about the future trajectory of South Africa, and how to develop a strategy to mitigate the downside risks of living in SA.
Frans and I discuss:
- What last month's riots reveal about the current state of the country.
- Why there is no "reform agenda" and why mainstream analysts are so often wrong about SA.
- The need for developing a 'Plan B' mindset.
- The importance of diversifying your income and assets.
- How to secure your children's future.
- Alternatives to emigration.
- Whether SA is sustainable as a unitary state and the potential emergence of an "enclave society"
TIMESTAMPS
(00:00) Intro
(00:53) The current state of SA
(02:28) What caused the recent riots?
(04:33) SA over the next decade
(11:53) Election scenarios
(21:31) Why you need a “Plan B”
(31:25) Alternatives to emigration
(40:19) The danger of racial and ethnic nationalism
(47:08) How to prepare for an uncertain future
(53:09) Conclusion
RESOURCES
'SA in crisis - Part-5: What you should do'' by Frans Cronje (Daily Friend, 25 July 2021): dailyfriend.co...
'The Rise or Fall of South Africa' by Frans Cronje (2020): www.takealot.c...
AUDIO
LISTEN to this episode on your favourite podcast platform: anchor.fm/davi...
Do you have a 'Plan B'? What steps are you taking to secure your future in South Africa? Let me know in the comments.
Grow local business and invest offshore, trim local lifestyle ie scale back on everything. Smaller cheaper home, used cars thats cheap to maintain and wont depreciate. Local luxuries - private school.
@@MagnusAzul101 this is excellent advice. Many middle class S.Africans live well beyond their means. Better to focus one's resources on investment (rather than consumption) so if SA declines you can still pivot.
I think the best thing for long term stability in SA is to reduce your reliance on the state. Collect and pressurize rain water for bathing and cleaning. I'm getting ethanol as a byproduct from a cash business of mine, putting my estimated petrol price for my carburetored car at around R12 per litre after mixing.
No man is an island, you cannot be independent in everything. But you can be independent in one thing, and let that one thing also benefit your neighbors. And for the love of God, grow yourself a little bit of food.
Received advise from a chairman and ceo of a large multinational mining company. “Private school, Foreign passport, dollar income, foreign assets/investments, is all one needs”
@@DavidAnsara I knew you were Lebanese, Davo!
I know many Maronites & other Lebanese Christians and I've tremendous respect for yous.
Carlos Slim Helú & the Slim family are Maronites👏
Thanks for hosting the good Doctor, David. I can listen to Frans all day. Such a sensible and rational thinker. Has a good grasp of "Systems Thinking". 🥳🥳🥳
Thinking systemically about SA's problems is key. We need to go beyond merely reacting to the next crisis and start to understand the state of the system as a whole.
I once listened to a conversation about our economy ..it was more than a year ago only 1 x gentleman from the Netherlands gave the most sensible answer Your Country is over populated..convo was regarding unemployment..no one Health minister since 1994 has encouraged "Family Planning" All the money can't eradicate this grave problem 🤔
@Cecilia Adrio Totally agree! And just handing out more grants with fewer taxpayers won't help. Sad!
Luckily I (unwittingly) followed my Plan A 25yrs ago.
Government is not promoting contraceptives but grant which is what destroying the country, there must be a law that all teens from the age of 12 must get implant contraceptive until the age of 22 it will save the economy, overpopulation, unemployment
The world is overpopulated not just SA. 8 billion humans consuming at the current rate is unsustainable. 4 million taxpayers trying to finance a population of 60 million citizens is unsustainable. No amount of technology or secret sauce is going to fix that.
Last I checked there are an estimated 5 million estimated migrants claiming asylum but that figure is said to be 10 million factoring in the unaccounted for.
Directed at Frans. I now live in Canada, so I’ve diversified, got the message in 94 when ESKOM dumped all the white skills and actions during Mbeki rule.
My message to all South Africans that want to stay, you have to uplift the masses from the position of nothing to loose to get buy in to build from virtually scratch the country in which most can make a reasonable life. You will not get the opportunity Frans suggests whereby ANC fails, coalitions ?????? Take over and 20 years later a stable government, even if you did, where are you in life, too old and too poor to rebuild.
NOW is the time to attempt a coalition with ANC, your best choice of a bad situation. The rational politicians need to get in with the ANC and create a working model for the future…NOW or never. Having said that, I assume ANC is willing to realize their incapacity and commit to a shared future with other groups. The financial destruction has already played out, many of the talented people have or are still leaving. Just plot the 2024 point on the downward trend and add a probable further 25% depreciation to the currency, there is no time left to allow further downward trend if you want to stay. Add further exit of business and review Clem Sunter 1992 in MegaWatt park, the low road, its here now.
You can only hope the ANC, Ramaphosa and rational politicians can come together and realize, now is the time to use all the countries intellect and get on a path of recovery NOW. Forget a plan that excludes the party that represents the masses. A federal state may well be the answer but it will take forever and you don’t have time to waste. Best of luck to South Africa.
I added the Clem Sunter book to my cart on Amazon. Thanks, for the recommendation!
Always enlightening listening to Frans. Thanks for hosting him David!
Thank you very much, Bradley. Frans has been great to work with over the last 3+ years that I have been with the CRA. I always learn something whenever I speak to him, and I speak to him a lot!
Hi David
Thank you very much for hosting Francois. He is very much informative person to such an extent that you can listen to him the whole day.
Once again, much appreciated David 🙏
Thank you, Duma. Always happy to hear this kind of feedback. Let me know who else you would like to see interviewed on the show.
Insightful and a little sobering. Thanks to David Ansara and to Frans Cronje for adding these voices into the debate.
Thank you, Adam. We need to have frank discussions about the state of SA and develop strategies for mitigating the risks.
Excellent view - I keep on saying to people that there is a huge difference between negativity and a reality check - exactly what Frans is stating
Thanks, Johan. It's important to be analytical, and not emotional, about the risks facing SA.
Thank you. Love the realism. Was not expecting a motivational talk, but that's what I took away from this.
Frans en David dankie vir die insig en inligting as daar net meer is wat luister
Really good content David! Thanks for making this freely available.
You're most welcome, Murray. We do a lot of briefings like this for corporate clients of the Centre For Risk Analysis, but it's also important to have some of these conversations in the public domain as well to help South Africans to think through some of the problems we are facing.
There is always a plan. If you have a plan you have a future
The plan can always change, but you need to have a plan to begin with.
Open branches of our solar business in Eswatini, Namibia, Botswana. Maybe Mozambique, Malawi, etc.
If balkanisation does happen there would be no guarantee SA's border would stay the same. The north west is an interesting situation historically, ethnically and linguistically it shares alot with Botswana. A huge IF would be Botswana offering the non robust communities state assistance, this in turn could lead to the robust communities aligning themselves with Botswana especially those closer to the border. A far fetched scenario but just some food for thought.
the one problem with enclaves and staying in SA is you still have to pay tax which is a massive detriment to personal capacity and business, if it was not for tax we would have had a working SA years ago
I agree! I wish I could ask Frans what he would do on paying tax, or who he would ask that question to!
Excellent description Fr SA.
Will there be progress.and peace. Skills are neccesary .
Thank you for this discussion. Very interesting and so true. The topling of ANC government is around the corner!!! Greetings from Heidelberg
We like to hear from the young successful Black/Coloured businesspeople about their practical experience. Before the failed Zuma government messed up the politics and economy, SA was progressing well.
Great convo @David! Interesting & enlightening & a big wake-up call!
Thanks so much! Yes, South Africans need to come to terms with the fact that "nobody is coming to save us" (to paraphrase Frans).
Brilliant talk indeed. Sich wisdom.
Nice analysis
Thank you boss Frans ☀️🌴
Excellent review
Cape independence Frans
Floods Europe, China etc across mild past tsunamis. Dying fish, water scarcity, sanctions etc. Find out from God the future economic sustainability of the cape Island. Instead of repenting, reconciling, unifying for a common good, u seek the opposite. Be careful of repeating unrighteous decisions. God is no longer joking with this world.
Bless u my friend.
Never happen
@@docdynamix It will happen as soon as the ANC collapse in the next couple of years…..
@@musa7790 ha ha and you believe this rubbish
@@aviatixmodels8054 they are going no where african culture will keep them in government just look north
I completely agree with Frans’s hypothesis about how governments always are the ones at fault when they blame foreigners or in case of South Africa’s situation, an entity “foreign to ruling party,” when it is always to distract focus.
Great interview, thank you David,
Thanks so much for watching, Eddie.
Excellent
Everything understood but what about the taxes retreating while the state retreats. How can people afford to provide everything for themselves on top of the taxes they pay.
Great discussion, thanks. Sounds gloomy but then also sounds hopeful.
although my only criticism is the general comments about the "mainstream media" and government, being the same thing and thus a bad thing. This concept is different by nation, especially in RSA. The problem obviously has led to this nonsense about vaccines and general health being mixed in with political messaging. Sadly in the USA this has cost many lives.
some very sobering information.
There might be one last split in the ANC. That is the up and coming younger generation of the ANC might get gatvol of not been considered for higher up positions within the party and/or within the government itself. They could form a new party.
Either way, South Africa's future is very positive because enclave societies will Foster capitalism and when the EFF are annihilated, socialism will be on the decline in South Africa.
You talk ...........
Almost let this discussions profundity miss me. But the nuanced commentary and analysis was undeniable.
Secession - Afskei so gou so doenlik
Excellent streem
We first need true reconciliation between the races.
Good chat
I respect Frans’ commentary, however, some of what he says comes across as oblivious. He states that a “centre-right, conservative” party is in line with the public’s opinion. That is far from the truth, most South Africans favour left wing ideals and parliament’s current seating distribution reflects this. The majority of South Africans are in need of a pragmatic left wing political alternative to the ANC.
To put it into perspective, the DA under Zille and Maimane was essentially centre-left and aligned with the mean South African voter, yet it’s perception of being a centre-right party that serves white interests under the Tony Leon years did not attract a sufficient number of black voters to the party - and winning a large share of the black vote is the only way you have a reasonable chance of forming a government.
I personally believe a new centre-left party in the vein of COPE & the increasingly centre-right DA (and potentially parties such as the IFP & ACDP) forming a moderate coalition is the best solution to South Africa’s crises. But I will give you the benefit of the doubt, Herman Mashaba’s ActionSA party might be an interesting prospect that serves your viewpoint.
Herman Mashaba could be the man that turns this country around
@@captainanyonebutteo9126 I believe he could
Uim is the answer
Where to get the best advice on preparing for the future ? Speak to a Zimbabwean
Mxm!!!! If zim has a better advises why their citizens flee from that better advises! That's stupid ideology
@@dikeledijane8186
Sarcasim over your head 😂
Think zimbabwe and all Afrikan countries...you get independence the colonist leave your land.
In SA the apartheid was not send back home in europe.
@@eddiekirindo2025 you're right perhaps Eddie but it's up to the new government to raise living standards by spending wisely.
A relationship build on lies always reach a level where it crumble, same thing here, the fake reconciliation is separating people of South Africa, and we can not avoid the outside individuals that want to own south africa, there is so many secrets in this country, so this convention is very irrelevant if we avoid all this factors.
The violence caused by apartheid on black peoples you never bothered to write any book , now suddenly you came with solutions for the country…
He was still a kid during Apartheid. Quite difficult to get published as a minor
How do you save if the Rand is worthless due to inflation.
Cryptocurrency is a route.
Another Plan B for you: How about emigrating to New Zealand or Australia - your favorite destinations. Or better still - Ukraine!
I pray black and white can come together and work with pne another. It still seems very segregated and divided. In a majority Christian country, I pray that you all can come together.l
Wishful thinking still...... ANC is not leaving power democratically
Well , the apartheid government left democratically. Remember they were not beaten in battle? Why should the ANC not
@@thandasibisi7534 The ANC does not care about the constitution and once they lose an election they will not leave, as can be seen by them not holding the local election this year as per the constitution, and this is just because they know they will get a beating in some areas, have not even lost yet. Besides ANC is a revolutionary movement and no such movement that became a “government” anywhere in the world has ever been voted out, they will meddle with the elections if they do lose elections and will have to be removed by force from the people….
Can u date these articles pls
sweden has the same problem as South Africa when it comes to investment.
The enclave scenario with communities as a basis of stability is never really defined. How many suburbs are real "communities"? (Librralism have helped dilute these institutions) How many geographical spaces have competing private security, business and political interest? How do they all come together and protect themselves from even bigger players and threats? Why would these enclaves be liberal, democratic and not something like territory under a gang (Cape Flats), political strongman (parts of RSA already) or authoritarian giant corporate enterprise (think an estate but with no body corporate / trustees)?
I've just subscribed ☺
Thanks for subscribing! I release a new episode every Sunday at 6pm, so stay tuned for more solutions-driven conversations.
It's KwaZulu natal Franc's say it with your full mouth.
Hiding behind walls will not do you need an environment that allows the actavities of economy to be prosperous
The Deficit would not have been in any way a problem had those funds followed productive proposes the crisis in South Africa is that of a failed social experiment one that is born from comunist ideology and so we see that social behaviour play a far greater role than ever imagined
What about all the crime?
No mention of the influence of religion and of leaders of significant mass religious communities ?
Do you want a Chinese sweatshop scenario or a minimum wage scenario like the USA.
They want Chinese sweat shops. Many countries all over the world have very stringent labour laws, investment is in droves. They want to make slaves of us.
Is anyone legally allowed to fill a pothole in a public street?
Get rid of the anc that's the problem.
I think Jesus has arrived as Jacob Zuma quote. What killed them it fighting for black only and excluding other group. I see diversified South Africa that fights for equal rights for group present.
less 8 percent working looking after 92 percent not working dealing commuist
What is next for Frans Cronje?
The words used are diplomatic and low key, but -in reality- far too kind.
Buy physical gold and silver, youre welcome.
You all talk too much...
Just taake action... Organize a coup d etat... Walk on and take over...And please stand together.... We need spmepne to lead the people.... Get rid of this corrupt ANC bunch....
The international community won't allow it.
They fear to loose what they have stolen, even if you run where, reforms will be there, land needed to return to the owner
Let them, it's only a matter of time and they know it. All tricks are finished now the end is near
Not one of these analysts talk about what it'd mean to have black peope uplifted in terms of socio economic empowerment, all of them talk about how ANC and EFF are going to fail us.. It is almost like these guys are hoping for something to go wrong just so they can proove a point.
All of these things wena Siya are for a certain target audience. I’ve read his book and now browsing through this interview; he is talking to a certain audience. Uplifting of black people is never their target.
They want to economically enslave us that's what they want. They should start by paying people what they are worth. Fair wages and the economy will move
It's all part of the plan. The last ditch of a dying horse turn us against our liberators while they keep and loot. Its not gonna happen
This nonsense talk doesn’t address the real issue who is responsible for inequality in South Africa? What the consequences of inequality ? Until you address that not this political hate of black leadership wishing for apartheid to back
Typical looter mentality
@@sasha8664 typical racist mentality
It does address the responsibility, the government of the last 26 years is responsible.
For them it's always someone else's fault. It's the voters fault. The government's fault. But never big capital. They are never wrong and never have been wrong.
@@sasha8664 typical white privileged mentality
You think about the investment bcz you are white in SA??? We South Africans we think of ukuhlalisana simunye singabantu abamnyama. Go home we do not need you😤
You go home you silly man
Batshele nomsa!!!! Lezinja lezi😡😡😡
You obviously did not pay attention to what Cronje said. You are correct only if you will be happy living in a slum in 2030 with no water and electricity. And eat PAP three times a day. No, once a day. Inyoka
You will one day with you begging bowl in your hands....
If they "go home" (wherever the hell that means) then your country will collapse overnight and your ass will flee to Europe or North America and demand that you be allowed in and be granted public assistance.