John Curtice: Reaction as by-election results leave Tories with mountain to climb

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  • Опубліковано 15 лют 2024
  • From the BBC:
    This was another disappointing election night for the Conservatives, with two by-election defeats and two gains for Labour.
    Not only did they lose Kingswood, where Labour needed a relatively modest 11-point swing. They also lost Wellingborough, where an 18-point swing was required for the seat to change hands.
    In the event, the swing in Kingswood was 16.4%. But that was overshadowed by the result in Wellingborough where the swing was 28.5% - the second highest swing from Conservative to Labour in any post-war by-election.
    Big though these swings were, they were not a major surprise. In the second half of last year, the Conservatives lost three seats to Labour thanks in each case to swings of more than 20%.
    The standing of the parties in the opinion polls has changed little since then. On average, Labour are still as much as 17 points ahead, little different from where they have been ever since last summer. Consequently, big swings seemed on the cards.
    Labour have now made four by-election gains from the Conservatives in this parliament. And while back in May 2021 the Conservatives gained Hartlepool from Labour, the net loss of three seats to Labour equals the three seats the Conservatives lost to Labour between 1992 and 1997.
    And those losses, of course, concluded with a heavy defeat for the Conservatives in the 1997 general election.

КОМЕНТАРІ • 435

  • @user-qd2hl9lu3h
    @user-qd2hl9lu3h 4 місяці тому +217

    "The Tories are in deep, deep electoral trouble" - that is music to my ears.

    • @Azurantine81
      @Azurantine81 4 місяці тому +8

      The problem is, I wouldn't start celebrating too early because they have an uncanny habit of getting out of the stickiest situations, despite not deserving to.

    • @AB-zl4nh
      @AB-zl4nh 4 місяці тому +6

      The Conservative Party will now learn the consequences of vote splitting, perhaps they should wake up and back Fair (PR) Voting. So you get what you voted for.

    • @allanrobinson1552
      @allanrobinson1552 4 місяці тому +6

      ​@@AB-zl4nhIf PR Came in the Tories would never form a majority Government again

    • @BlyatimirPootin
      @BlyatimirPootin 4 місяці тому

      ​@@Azurantine81while that is true I feel that the writing is on the wall this time.

    • @user-qd2hl9lu3h
      @user-qd2hl9lu3h 4 місяці тому +1

      @@Azurantine81 Fair point.

  • @mickeyfrancismcdaid
    @mickeyfrancismcdaid 4 місяці тому +64

    The Rochdale shame, isn’t an issue with voters. Energy companies profits soaring by 1,000% is. The government allowing this greed is a disgrace. Voters are sick to the back teeth, with the corruption and vast negligence of the last 5 Conservative PM’s.

    • @ab8865
      @ab8865 4 місяці тому +2

      👏👏👏 exactly!!! That's why I want them out.

    • @uingaeoc3905
      @uingaeoc3905 4 місяці тому +4

      Both are LABOUR policies.

    • @margsomerville21
      @margsomerville21 4 місяці тому +4

      Worse to come with Liebour

    • @barryboom717
      @barryboom717 4 місяці тому

      ​@@margsomerville21 Trust me, your comment makes you look thick as shit, it'll be far better to not post anything than post some meaningless comment that shows the by-election results have hurt your feelings.

    • @FannyShmellar
      @FannyShmellar 4 місяці тому

      @@margsomerville21Lol you’re a mong

  • @ab8865
    @ab8865 4 місяці тому +45

    Get in!!! Get them out

    • @AB-zl4nh
      @AB-zl4nh 4 місяці тому +1

      The Conservative Party will now learn the consequences of vote splitting, perhaps they should wake up and back Fair (PR) Voting. So you get what you voted for.

    • @allanrobinson1552
      @allanrobinson1552 4 місяці тому

      ​@@AB-zl4nhIf PR was brought in it would mean that the Tories could never win a General Election with a big majority.

    • @lloydnaylor6113
      @lloydnaylor6113 4 місяці тому

      ​@@allanrobinson1552happy if Starmer wins a landslide introduces PR calls an election and loses his majority , so neither party has a majority in Parliment?

  • @weswheel4834
    @weswheel4834 4 місяці тому +32

    This was more of a "bye election".

  • @ab8865
    @ab8865 4 місяці тому +68

    I cant stand the tories with the way this country is heading.

    • @markgohegan1590
      @markgohegan1590 4 місяці тому

      Me neither but I fear Starmer will be no better!! Time for a change in the whole way governance works in the UK! It is no good just floating from Labour to Tory-Tory back to Labour, there is no longer enough difference between either of them any more, both Globalists that don't have the interests of the people of the UK first and foremost in their agendas. I wish I knew what the answer is, but I feel we are as a country spiraling into disaster!!

    • @nicks4934
      @nicks4934 4 місяці тому

      @@markgohegan1590bs

    • @user-qd2hl9lu3h
      @user-qd2hl9lu3h 4 місяці тому +11

      Never forget, and certainly never forgive.

    • @markmeadows3485
      @markmeadows3485 4 місяці тому

      I can't stand Labour your voting for the death of your country you'll see.

    • @AB-zl4nh
      @AB-zl4nh 4 місяці тому +1

      The Conservative Party will now learn the consequences of vote splitting, perhaps they should wake up and back Fair (PR) Voting. So you get what you voted for.

  • @audreymcgready4329
    @audreymcgready4329 4 місяці тому +26

    Never ever forgive or forget the past 14 years and what they have done to us and this country. Also keep in mind all the needless deaths over those years due to Tory policies. Do not forget all those people. Get the Tories out on their behalf.

    • @johnmoore9862
      @johnmoore9862 4 місяці тому

      Absolutely, & let’s not forget the fact that out of the last 123 years the tories have been in power for 80 of those years, they’ve influenced society for the worse as they have passed more legislation, guidelines, & directives than any other political party.

    • @willtricks9432
      @willtricks9432 4 місяці тому

      I did not forget the 79 to 97 carve up, but the clowns got back in with lies.

  • @davidlewis2055
    @davidlewis2055 4 місяці тому +100

    Can we please get Boris Johnson to jail

    • @msimms-lp5qw
      @msimms-lp5qw 4 місяці тому +3

      He's history, forget him

    • @billysastard8779
      @billysastard8779 4 місяці тому +8

      @@msimms-lp5qw Nope, its really important to investigate relations between tory goverment and russian money. Johnson playing tenis with wifes of russian oligarchs, Johnsons party with Lebedevs after NATO summit, Johnson adding Lebedev jr. to house of lords, finances for vote leave from russia etc etc.

    • @AB-zl4nh
      @AB-zl4nh 4 місяці тому

      The Conservative Party will now learn the consequences of vote splitting, perhaps they should wake up and back Fair (PR) Voting. So you get what you voted for.

    • @IVAN-bs5bq
      @IVAN-bs5bq 4 місяці тому

      With Doris johnson

    • @uingaeoc3905
      @uingaeoc3905 4 місяці тому

      @@billysastard8779 have you not considered changing your user name to '$TUP1D-8A$T@RD'?

  • @pip1723
    @pip1723 4 місяці тому +44

    Great news this country needs a change in direction .

    • @eckie4679
      @eckie4679 4 місяці тому +1

      It sure does but I’m not sure much will change under Starmer 🤔

    • @sanchezz4387
      @sanchezz4387 4 місяці тому +3

      ​@@eckie4679a lot will change

    • @bahoonies
      @bahoonies 4 місяці тому +2

      ​@@sanchezz4387What do you think will change under Labour?

    • @sonofsomerset1695
      @sonofsomerset1695 4 місяці тому

      A change in direction? So Labour are going to stop mass immigration? Nope. Labour are gonna scrap the net zero scam? Nope. Very little difference between them and the tories, both controlled by globalist forces, no wonder Reform is growing fast, a REAL change party.

    • @melgrant7404
      @melgrant7404 4 місяці тому

      ​@@bahooniesthere is much to change.

  • @ianwoodall4523
    @ianwoodall4523 4 місяці тому +116

    It is really very funny. Watching Tory backing media outlets cover this story through gritted teeth.

    • @AB-zl4nh
      @AB-zl4nh 4 місяці тому +5

      The Conservative Party will now learn the consequences of vote splitting, perhaps they should wake up and back Fair (PR) Voting. So you get what you voted for.

    • @peteratkin3788
      @peteratkin3788 4 місяці тому +4

      Yeah, it's like watching the captain of the Titanic rearrange the deckchairs before they hit the iceberg.

    • @KernowFishy
      @KernowFishy 4 місяці тому +1

      Naga sounds very very annoyed. desperate to find a ray of light for the bosses.

    • @svresh
      @svresh 4 місяці тому +4

      The way she tries to spin it as bad for Labour with the Rochdale thing and John corrects her saying nearly 50% dont even care to begin with and spinning the second biggest post-war swing as a demoralized leadership result is wrong was brilliant.

    • @ab8865
      @ab8865 4 місяці тому

      I've noticed the wealthy are getting mad 😂 and the tory voters that wanted more in there pockets through greed well I'm sorry doesn't work that way. The ones that get off there ass to work deserve a better future. Not someone who is raking it in by ripping off people or bragging about there profits.

  • @irwinsaltzman979
    @irwinsaltzman979 4 місяці тому +15

    Tory party continuing to privatize NHS, ignore waste flowing into UK water ways, ignore school buildings falling down , insure high profits for oil and gas companies….

    • @ab8865
      @ab8865 4 місяці тому

      Yep agree 👏👏👏

    • @fitzstv8506
      @fitzstv8506 4 місяці тому

      and refuse to rejoin the EU!.

  • @Azurantine81
    @Azurantine81 4 місяці тому +26

    With the chancellor's recent announcement to make poor people poorer, the conservatives reign is certainly being challenged but, not in the way people think, it is not support for Labour directly but rather people just not bothering to vote because their sick to the teeth of politicians and their nonsense in general.

    • @BlyatimirPootin
      @BlyatimirPootin 4 місяці тому

      Nah

    • @woolmer608
      @woolmer608 4 місяці тому +1

      100%correct.

    • @BlyatimirPootin
      @BlyatimirPootin 4 місяці тому

      @@woolmer608 in your opinion.

    • @BlyatimirPootin
      @BlyatimirPootin 4 місяці тому

      Nah

    • @fatherjack1148
      @fatherjack1148 4 місяці тому +2

      At the age of 70 and for the first time in my life I will *not* be voting Labour at the next election, nor shall I *ever* vote for them again in the remainder of my time.
      I shall be voting green from now on.
      and to be honest, I really don't CARE if the Tories win, because from where I am standing I am quite sure I won't notice any difference between the two Tory parties.

  • @mariusb5150
    @mariusb5150 4 місяці тому +22

    But why is anyone surprised ... the Tories have succeeded in even insulting the intelligence of amoebas.

    • @iananderson3799
      @iananderson3799 4 місяці тому

      South of the border amoebas have been voting Tory for decades.

  • @philipdurling1964
    @philipdurling1964 4 місяці тому +80

    Tories are sinking faster than the Titanic.

    • @Knappa22
      @Knappa22 4 місяці тому +13

      Glorious isn’t it 🙂

    • @lorenzobianchini4415
      @lorenzobianchini4415 4 місяці тому +5

      As is the UK.....bring Scotland independence Now...

    • @heliotropezzz333
      @heliotropezzz333 4 місяці тому +5

      @@lorenzobianchini4415 That wouldn't necessarily make things better for Scotland just as Brexit didn't make things better for the UK.

    • @julianshepherd2038
      @julianshepherd2038 4 місяці тому

      Thank you, we never thought of that. Thank goodness we have the british to lead us. God bless Boris Johnson.​@@heliotropezzz333

    • @msimms-lp5qw
      @msimms-lp5qw 4 місяці тому +2

      Yes, it might take ten years but they will be back . History shows Govts change when the economy crashes again, as it always does.

  • @rambler123
    @rambler123 4 місяці тому +3

    Unfortunately nothing will change. Labour is now conservative lite. The working class has no representation in parliament. It’s sad

    • @davepike7546
      @davepike7546 3 місяці тому

      We need a genuine left wing party that will help bridge the gap that has grown enormously between the rich and the poor, these last few decades. The closer the parity, we might beat Denmark on the happiness scale :)

  • @chriswills9437
    @chriswills9437 4 місяці тому +8

    Failure of Brexit, failure of Levelling Up, failing on housing, education and health. I cant imagine why...

    • @econundrum1977
      @econundrum1977 4 місяці тому

      Well yes they have failed people and are failing people on every front and I fundamentally don't believe they have the best interests of the British people at heart and I don't meet many people who do believe that.

    • @robertlyall
      @robertlyall 4 місяці тому

      Brexit was never going to be a success.

    • @johnmoore9862
      @johnmoore9862 4 місяці тому

      The wilfully imposed austerity measures may have paid them the Karma they so richly (Richi) deserve.

    • @lloydnaylor6113
      @lloydnaylor6113 4 місяці тому

      ​@@johnmoore9862austerity ? Goverment spending is £1.2 trillion. As recently as 2018 it was only £800 billion.

    • @Jim90117
      @Jim90117 4 місяці тому

      Crashing the pound, numerous covid parties and care home deaths, record net immigration,

  • @jonathanfarnworth9070
    @jonathanfarnworth9070 4 місяці тому +5

    The reason for the low turn out is simple. Both parties do not prove to show any plausible alternative. Labour is just going to be a more competent version of the conservative party.

    • @mrD66M
      @mrD66M 4 місяці тому

      Is "competent" good or bad to you?
      Also, when do you think the UK last had a fairly competent Govt?

    • @jonathanfarnworth9070
      @jonathanfarnworth9070 4 місяці тому

      @@mrD66M Obviously it would make sense for a competent party to be in power. But my question to you is; is labour going to solve the housing crisis? Is labour going to solve the problems with immigration in this country without doing something far right like the Rwanda policy? Is labour going to solve the problems with our education system, when a lot of the gen X's and millennials are now even less well off than the baby boomers? My point is why do you think people are not particularly excited for this labour government. They will solve many problems but will they solve the most important issues which are also the most difficult issues to resolve? I don't think so. I want labour to prove me wrong. But will they?

  • @Vincent-dc6ku
    @Vincent-dc6ku 4 місяці тому +27

    Imagine the devastation if someone more charismatic as Starmer was Labour leader. The Tories are pinning their hopes on him being undone by the background lunatics in his own party, so far, he's managed to control the ultra left wing, that alone is an achievement.

    • @BlyatimirPootin
      @BlyatimirPootin 4 місяці тому

      Agreed.

    • @barryboom717
      @barryboom717 4 місяці тому +3

      Compared to Sunak who has completely lost control of the lunatics in his party. It's gotten so bad that they've now got names like "the 5 families" and started forming batshit crazy splinter groups.

    • @aclark903
      @aclark903 4 місяці тому

      @@barryboom717Sunak never had the Tory grassroots to begin with. The City & the MPs imposed him on them. Which is why they are not knocking on doors for him. Hence the results.

    • @barryboom717
      @barryboom717 4 місяці тому

      @@aclark903 that's a very simplistic view of the problems facing the Tory party, are you seriously suggesting that the only reason people aren't voting Tory is because a Tory shill hasn't knocked on their door and convinced them to
      A. Not believe what they see with their eyes.
      Or
      B. Accept that the decline over the past 14 years has nothing to do with the Tory party.

    • @marksykes5434
      @marksykes5434 4 місяці тому +1

      Give me honesty & integrity over “charisma” all day long & thrice on Sunday !

  • @phild8192
    @phild8192 4 місяці тому +5

    Sometimes you should accept temporary loss for long term gain.
    The tories moving over to support from “idiot England” has cost them dearly.

    • @petermartin5030
      @petermartin5030 4 місяці тому +2

      Parties would do well to cater for "low information" voters in their messaging, as they are many and each get 1 whole vote!

  • @Joe-og6br
    @Joe-og6br 4 місяці тому +5

    Told my dad in 2015 that Starmer would be the next Labour PM. He laughed at me and told me to put a bet on it. I really wish I had because I am guessing the odds would have been pretty in my favour. 😢

    • @rjjcms1
      @rjjcms1 4 місяці тому +2

      I admit I saw both Starmer and (before he won the US election in 2020) Biden as "nearly men" as far as becoming their country's leader was concerned,but both could be in situ come the end of this year!

    • @dorothyb.
      @dorothyb. 4 місяці тому

      I made that prediction back then too

  • @parvezvelji5133
    @parvezvelji5133 4 місяці тому +24

    Thank you Rishi “ Let the virus rip “ Sunak for staying in your post. Don’t listen to your colleagues ! Keep helping Labour

    • @minimoog4236
      @minimoog4236 4 місяці тому +8

      Theres no-one to replace him. The Conservatives are not serious people and folk have cottoned on to that fact.

    • @weswheel4834
      @weswheel4834 4 місяці тому +4

      They'd look even more clownish if they replaced him now. And who with? (And who would seriously want the job, be PM for a few months and then be the leader that took your party to a crashing defeat.

    • @user-qd2hl9lu3h
      @user-qd2hl9lu3h 4 місяці тому +3

      @@weswheel4834 Exactly. A poisoned chalice if there ever was one.

    • @Andrew-tx9jy
      @Andrew-tx9jy 4 місяці тому

      @@minimoog4236 Loopy Liz Truss is having a stab, I'm sure we'd all love her back and her kamikaze economics she could finish off the country properly then...

    • @willtricks9432
      @willtricks9432 4 місяці тому +2

      @@weswheel4834 The sod would still get a pension and a handful of Tory Peers to stuff the Lords.

  • @KAZUYADOG
    @KAZUYADOG 4 місяці тому +18

    Low turnout could be all to do with the Tories making it more difficult for voters to actually vote with the introduction of compulsory Voter ID.

    • @audreymcgready4329
      @audreymcgready4329 4 місяці тому +5

      I wonder what impact that made to it. How many where turned away?.

    • @onlyme8117
      @onlyme8117 4 місяці тому

      Changed my mind over ID. Since we have alowed all and sundry to waltz in here voting fraud skewing democracy.

    • @stephenmoreyprivateyoutube1039
      @stephenmoreyprivateyoutube1039 4 місяці тому +4

      It would be interesting to know how many people were turned away by ID requirements. Parties that make it harder for people to vote are hardly committed to democracy, are they?

    • @stephenbranley91
      @stephenbranley91 4 місяці тому +1

      Jacob Rees Mogg said as much after the previous by elections. He said something akin to the fact that it appeared to have put off Tory voters more than their opponents. Which was great to hear as they clearly introduced voter ID with the intention of disenfranchising poorer, left-leaning voters but forgot that their voter base is comprised almost entirely of old people.

  • @bigslydoc
    @bigslydoc 4 місяці тому +7

    The Tories are now being squeezed from both the centre (ie Labour and in limited circumstances the Liberal Democrats) and the right (Reform). This is getting similar to the Canadian General Election of 1993 when the deeply unpopular Progressive Conservative federal government had the Liberals on the centre-left and the Reform party on the right. They were reduced from 156 (a majority being 148) to just 2 seats. The party never really recovered and merged with the Reform party a few years later. And that was under FPTP as well. It is not impossible.

    • @Jim90117
      @Jim90117 4 місяці тому

      It isn't completely impossible going by swing percentage to see the Tories left with just 8 seats and ultimately the end of the Conservative party.

    • @bonariablackie4047
      @bonariablackie4047 4 місяці тому

      The Tories being reduced to two seats would be like winning the Lottery. I wonder how many Portillo moments we would see when Tories lose their places on the taxpayer gravy train, and realise they have to work for a living.

  • @patrickclosefitness
    @patrickclosefitness 4 місяці тому +6

    Could listen to John Curtice's commentary all day

  • @clundgeweep
    @clundgeweep 4 місяці тому +16

    When Skeletor speaks you listen

  • @fulloftruthguardian5420
    @fulloftruthguardian5420 4 місяці тому +13

    For the first time. Completely agree with his analysis.

  • @EWAScotland
    @EWAScotland 4 місяці тому +3

    Meanwhile the Faily Express are ecstatic at this top Tory victory…someone will be in later to take away their crayons 🖍️ 😂

  • @davidpearn2484
    @davidpearn2484 4 місяці тому +2

    Gotta love John curtice 👍.

  • @nicks4934
    @nicks4934 4 місяці тому +15

    Starmer dealt with the issue. Well done to him. Bad week? Not really

    • @PassiveAgressive319
      @PassiveAgressive319 4 місяці тому +3

      💯

    • @matthewhendy5785
      @matthewhendy5785 4 місяці тому +2

      I’ll take boring and competent over charisma any day. I think he will be a really good PM.

    • @Joe-og6br
      @Joe-og6br 4 місяці тому +3

      Starmer will need time. In 1997 the economy was actually in good shape but it still took over 5+ years for the NHS to improve. Starmer is facing a flat line economy.

    • @hugodrax71
      @hugodrax71 4 місяці тому +1

      @@Joe-og6br Needs time? More like needs to get the UK back into the EU and its single market.

  • @Jimbo-qd5zz
    @Jimbo-qd5zz 4 місяці тому

    Love the Prof Curtice

  • @Cliff-xh7fq
    @Cliff-xh7fq 4 місяці тому +3

    Sunak or Starmer? Bit like a choice of a ticket on Titanic’s maiden voyage or a weeks holiday in Gaza!

    • @sonofsomerset1695
      @sonofsomerset1695 4 місяці тому +3

      Thats why anyone with any sense is voting Reform, for real change.

    • @astratan2238
      @astratan2238 4 місяці тому

      Reform is run by exactly the same people that got Boris into power. They are not a change party.

    • @fitzstv8506
      @fitzstv8506 4 місяці тому

      So only 11% of UK voters have any sense....that's an interesting finding!.@@sonofsomerset1695

    • @davepike7546
      @davepike7546 3 місяці тому

      @@sonofsomerset1695 What change? nobody knows any policies, bar less immigration, which is pretty much every parties concern now. Without a proper structure the boats will come. We should tell them how crap it is here, that might help, rather than a gimmick of Rwanda and their support of militias, child soldiers and wide scale raping and pillaging.

  • @paulwilson2651
    @paulwilson2651 4 місяці тому +3

    Trust that silly woman to try and make out the Tory defeats aren't as bad as they are.

  • @normanmeharry58
    @normanmeharry58 4 місяці тому +2

    The Tories need a good spell in opposition. After 14 years they're bereft of ideas in how to deal with governing Britain.

    • @davepike7546
      @davepike7546 3 місяці тому

      All they have is far right dog whistle politics and free market disaster capitalism. The days of one nation Tory ideology is dead. Ministers back in the day would have resigned over major catastrophes, this lot are shameless and just carry on, or go to the Lords.

  • @nickvinehill7491
    @nickvinehill7491 4 місяці тому +1

    The Proff of Polls always reminds me of Mr Pastry

  • @ajw9533
    @ajw9533 4 місяці тому

    If all you do is lie and line your own and your mates' pockets, in the end, you get rumbled.

    • @ab8865
      @ab8865 4 місяці тому

      😂😂 should of been rumbled a while back but they keep changing leaders and from what I've been reading they are shitting there pants that much they have asked tice to do a pact 😂 how corrupt can u get!

  • @markgriffiths6540
    @markgriffiths6540 4 місяці тому +1

    Demographics of reform voters - thick and/or old.

  • @miketemple876
    @miketemple876 4 місяці тому +1

    I just love this man

  • @hholton7245
    @hholton7245 4 місяці тому +8

    Biggest take away - 60% of the voters stayed away - they're not engaging with the Westminster politicians and the legacy media.

    • @hholton7245
      @hholton7245 4 місяці тому

      Write to your MP expressing your concerns - if you can be bovvered?@@allnewnow2023

    • @astratan2238
      @astratan2238 4 місяці тому

      It has been a consistent conservative policy to fuel apathy in the populace at large and rage within their own base to try and suppress the general vote and mobilise their own. This is on them.

    • @fitzstv8506
      @fitzstv8506 4 місяці тому

      Post brexit UK has got it's sovernty..soveignty...sorvignty back so it does not need politics anymore just let the aristocracy rule once again and the plebs can tag along!.

  • @petyrkowalski9887
    @petyrkowalski9887 4 місяці тому +1

    They are toast..but will cling on to the end.

    • @rjjcms1
      @rjjcms1 4 місяці тому

      Yep,just like in 1997 but they look far more obviously toast this time.

  • @simonlambert6891
    @simonlambert6891 4 місяці тому +2

    Someone get this man something to eat 💀

  • @paulwild4330
    @paulwild4330 4 місяці тому

    Mountain? It’s Everest and unclimbable by that namby pamby Eton mess .

  • @siadali7673
    @siadali7673 4 місяці тому

    Well done Labour

  • @nicks4934
    @nicks4934 4 місяці тому +5

    How much did voter id reduce turnout?

    • @Andrew-tx9jy
      @Andrew-tx9jy 4 місяці тому

      It was what the Tories were counting on to reduce the Labour vote too, doesn't appear to be working for them.

    • @rjjcms1
      @rjjcms1 4 місяці тому

      Good question. And would Labour keep or abolish it?

    • @fitzstv8506
      @fitzstv8506 4 місяці тому

      By very little I would suggest!.

    • @Andrew-tx9jy
      @Andrew-tx9jy 4 місяці тому

      Not as much as the Tories hoped it would.

  • @josephwurzer4366
    @josephwurzer4366 4 місяці тому +3

    Why can’t the Tory’s DUMP SUNAK!

    • @nancyreid2416
      @nancyreid2416 4 місяці тому +3

      The havent got anyond worth the bother.

    • @raymonddixon7603
      @raymonddixon7603 4 місяці тому +4

      And what difference would that make????

    • @mjstefansson7466
      @mjstefansson7466 4 місяці тому

      Dump 💩

    • @toadiin6924
      @toadiin6924 4 місяці тому

      Don’t be silly it’s a fundamental issue with the party they’ve dumped boris and dumped liz and they are still struggling

    • @mjstefansson7466
      @mjstefansson7466 4 місяці тому +1

      Perhaps they could appoint Neil Warnock

  • @grumpygit-sv1cg
    @grumpygit-sv1cg 3 місяці тому

    Really? Every by election has been very low turnout, and Labour has done very poorly numerically under the circumstances they only increased their vote by 107 in Wellingborough. If the Tories can get their voters to get to the polls it may be closer run thing than people think.

  • @FlashGordan-ks4sf
    @FlashGordan-ks4sf 4 місяці тому

    Time will tell

  • @paulclay8547
    @paulclay8547 4 місяці тому

    It's great news hearing the Tories are loosing by elections. We need the Tories out.

  • @melgrant7404
    @melgrant7404 4 місяці тому

    I think there will be a good turnout to get rid of this government.

  • @colinbaker3916
    @colinbaker3916 4 місяці тому

    No offence to John Curtice, but I wish the great Steve Kornacki would come over and do for our elections what he does so brilliantly for US elections, apparently without sleep!

  • @ChsM-jk4oy
    @ChsM-jk4oy 4 місяці тому

    Didn't they remember how they got into power and stayed there for so long because labour got cocky and thought they're safe seats would always vote for them whatever they do now tories have done exactly the same thing 😅😂

  • @teamblitz1990
    @teamblitz1990 4 місяці тому

    The Tories and Reform UK the perfect couple. The Tories are finished never be in government or power ever again.

  • @BusstterNutt
    @BusstterNutt 4 місяці тому

    don't forget he's got to scrapp inheritance tax before he leaves

  • @sphughes01
    @sphughes01 4 місяці тому

    Tories in deep, deep trouble! Staring defeat in the face.
    Good job because Labour are in a worse state now than they have ever been. Starmer is as Labour as John Major. Never in my life of 62 years have I witnessed a Labour leader who was so lacklustre, right-wing and weak. He has no vision and appears not to understand how to offer progressive antidotes for the huge problems the Tories have caused. He thinks more of the same although not quite as cruel will do. No it won’t. We need radical solutions to radical problems such as a path out of dead end which Brexit has led to. Also more radical thinking on tax to raise enough money to save our NHS, schools, infrastructure and railways. At the moment we are looking at a Labour government elected with a huge mandate but no real blueprint for change.

    • @davidhoward4715
      @davidhoward4715 4 місяці тому

      Keep crawling on your belly to your right-wing billionaire god-kings. You may get to lick up some of the crumbs they brush off their table.

  • @spursgog835
    @spursgog835 4 місяці тому

    When is a plan not a plan? When it is a Sunak plan.

  • @mulengae5
    @mulengae5 4 місяці тому +2

    Strikes and strikes

  • @Barralet58
    @Barralet58 4 місяці тому

    Gorgeous George the next Rochdale MP👍

  • @mjstefansson7466
    @mjstefansson7466 4 місяці тому

    Have the Tories considered appointing Neil Warnock ?

  • @user-rl8mq9uf7b
    @user-rl8mq9uf7b 3 місяці тому

    I can't believe the Tories are unpopular Dishy is so nice
    A nice leader is a good thing I don't believe the Tories are doing badly this man has got it wrong we will see later he's wrong and the Tories are ok he is too nice to be unpopular

  • @swansong5263
    @swansong5263 4 місяці тому

    Reform or nothing for us!

  • @BSJinx
    @BSJinx 4 місяці тому

    For the Tories, 1997 now is an optimistic scenario. (Electoral Calculus shows the Tories on 126 seats. Rishi Sunak would have a majority of just 2,000 in his new seat.)

  • @dorothyb.
    @dorothyb. 4 місяці тому

    I love this guy….

  • @uingaeoc3905
    @uingaeoc3905 4 місяці тому

    'A changing Europe',Yep, always getting worse.

    • @fitzstv8506
      @fitzstv8506 4 місяці тому

      Only trotting after the UK!.

  • @NAYF76
    @NAYF76 4 місяці тому +2

    You'd be mad not to place a bet on Labour now.

    • @rjjcms1
      @rjjcms1 4 місяці тому +1

      Would the odds you'd be given still make you any money?

    • @NAYF76
      @NAYF76 4 місяці тому +1

      @@rjjcms1 yes

    • @msimms-lp5qw
      @msimms-lp5qw 4 місяці тому +2

      Only on the size of majority

  • @silondon9010
    @silondon9010 4 місяці тому

    Reform has momentum

  • @sammydingdong4540
    @sammydingdong4540 4 місяці тому +1

    Amazing Tory BBC had this guy on................

    • @rjjcms1
      @rjjcms1 4 місяці тому

      You're one of those who probably thinks anything to the right of the Morning Star is "Tory".

    • @sammydingdong4540
      @sammydingdong4540 4 місяці тому +1

      @@rjjcms1 nope wrong Pravda ....................

    • @rjjcms1
      @rjjcms1 4 місяці тому

      @@sammydingdong4540Damn,I should have guessed!

  • @Eurodave.
    @Eurodave. 4 місяці тому +2

    Tories days in power are numbered... we could see the back of them by May ! .🎉🎉🎇🎆🥳🥴🥳🍾🎉🎉☀️

  • @neilmorris6046
    @neilmorris6046 4 місяці тому

    Were doomed

  • @IVAN-bs5bq
    @IVAN-bs5bq 4 місяці тому

    I can't wait for the brown stuff to hit the fan !

  • @Afterthoughtbtw
    @Afterthoughtbtw 4 місяці тому

    One suspects that the only places that will be affected negatively for Labour as regards the Rochdale stuff will be those areas which have a large number of anti-Semites in (so the far right, fundamentalist Muslims, fundamentalist Christians, or the far left). For the vast, vast preponderance of UK voters, it will be UK issues that determine who they vote for. As it should be. For those of us that aren't racists, Starmer's stance will be welcomed, but still largely irrelevant.

  • @evanleebodies
    @evanleebodies 4 місяці тому

    what was the turn-out?

    • @rjjcms1
      @rjjcms1 4 місяці тому

      38% in Wellingborough and 37% in Kingswood,apparently.

    • @fitzstv8506
      @fitzstv8506 4 місяці тому

      The Reform supporters didn't turn up!.....OH wait they did!.@@rjjcms1

  • @heathersymons1878
    @heathersymons1878 4 місяці тому

    Be careful what you wish for ......

  • @chrislaurenceleo
    @chrislaurenceleo 4 місяці тому +4

    Sunaks plan?

    • @Nala1950
      @Nala1950 4 місяці тому

      Mmmmmmmmm,m🤫

    • @for111
      @for111 4 місяці тому +5

      Lose, move to the States with his wife and her billions, take up some plum job, effectively retire.

    • @chrislaurenceleo
      @chrislaurenceleo 4 місяці тому +1

      @@for111 his plan is working then, like he says

    • @BlastastiC
      @BlastastiC 4 місяці тому

      Turn the poor into some kind of luxury carpark?

  • @Wallydaft
    @Wallydaft 4 місяці тому

    Sir Ed Davey...loses his shirt.....W****R

  • @AB-zl4nh
    @AB-zl4nh 4 місяці тому +2

    The Conservative Party will now learn the consequences of vote splitting, perhaps they should wake up and back Fair (PR) Voting. So you get what you voted for.

  • @chrisbamo6400
    @chrisbamo6400 4 місяці тому

    i can not wait for GE

    • @lloydnaylor6113
      @lloydnaylor6113 4 місяці тому

      Could be Jan 2025 if Sunak has his way .

  • @nicks4934
    @nicks4934 4 місяці тому +2

    Nagga looks so disappointed 😂

    • @nancyreid2416
      @nancyreid2416 4 місяці тому +4

      Time she went as well.

    • @Sam-gw5pl
      @Sam-gw5pl 4 місяці тому +4

      @@nancyreid2416can’t stand the arrogant woman.

    • @Geffo555
      @Geffo555 4 місяці тому

      Bit odd. The righty brigade have been trying to cancel her for the last few years.
      She's probably bound by the BBC's neutrality pledge. Which translates as give Tories an easy time. Give righty thinktank bods plenty of airtime. Say "antisemitism" a lot. And on no account can you mention Brexit.

  • @staffankarinpappila3975
    @staffankarinpappila3975 4 місяці тому

    The conservatives is no more. The Tory Party is not a conservative party anymore.

  • @kerrymcgeachy3571
    @kerrymcgeachy3571 4 місяці тому +1

    Tories have naked this country

  • @FlashGordan-ks4sf
    @FlashGordan-ks4sf 4 місяці тому

    There is nothing to separate blue and red
    They are not an option anymore.
    Reform is the only alternative that could possibly bring some dignity back to politics.

    • @fitzstv8506
      @fitzstv8506 4 місяці тому +1

      Reform is not an alternative for the British people if it was then they would be securing far higher vote numbers than they are actually getting! Peak Reform happened yesterday and this is as good as it gets for them.

    • @ianstrange5674
      @ianstrange5674 4 місяці тому

      @FlashGordan-ks4sf
      Christ, another far right government is the last thing the country needs.

  • @janesda
    @janesda 4 місяці тому +6

    The state apparatchik swiftly glosses over his prediction of a possible record low turnout at the next general election.

  • @user-pt8yr9xk3b
    @user-pt8yr9xk3b 4 місяці тому

    I bet neither have ULEZ......yet!

  • @paulc1553
    @paulc1553 4 місяці тому

    Get the Tories out.

  • @toadiin6924
    @toadiin6924 4 місяці тому

    Vote green Labour is complacent and just tories with another name

  • @IssacharGR
    @IssacharGR 4 місяці тому

    Conservatives have lost 100% of my vote.
    Labour and Conservatives....Whats the difference?
    Reform - the only alternative.

    • @astratan2238
      @astratan2238 4 місяці тому

      There are huge differences, whilst reform is a conservative splinter.

    • @IssacharGR
      @IssacharGR 4 місяці тому

      @@astratan2238 Dear 2238. I wish/hope you are correct. But i fear both parties are neo-iberal globalists As are the Democrats and most of the Republicans in the USA. Similar to the thinking of Blair...and the ideology that comes from the globalist elite of the EU and WEF.

    • @fitzstv8506
      @fitzstv8506 4 місяці тому

      Most voters disagree...check out the results!.

    • @IssacharGR
      @IssacharGR 4 місяці тому

      @@fitzstv8506 ...So what is the difference?
      Both parties are broadly neo-liberal....so they favour mass immigration....high tax
      net zero and other things that come out of the W.E.F, W.H.O. Both are reluctant Brexit parties...Both pro the European court (ECHR) having authority over us. Both opposed to looking into the excess deaths.
      The only difference is that perhaps Labour hate Brexit more...and would be a little more committed to pushing similar policies a little harder. They are all in the spell of Blair thinking.

    • @fitzstv8506
      @fitzstv8506 4 місяці тому

      The Tories are right of centre in fact the present Tories are verging on the far right.
      Labour are left of centre.
      The question is do the people of the UK want to be governed by the right or centre left, I suspect it is the centre left because it is here that the least amount of further damage can happen
      Brexit is a disaster both the Tories and Labour know this but there is no easy fix to it or clear path to further EU membership so both parties have had to accept the UK's faith outside the EU for now.

  • @lyndhurstcollins9189
    @lyndhurstcollins9189 4 місяці тому

    The main headline should be the appallingly low turnouts in both…just over a third of the electorate. The electoral system …FPTP. What an indictment …” not worth the shoe leather to go out and vote”. OMG.

  • @FlashGordan-ks4sf
    @FlashGordan-ks4sf 4 місяці тому

    I disagree

  • @spartybrearly7221
    @spartybrearly7221 4 місяці тому +1

    Naga needs to lay off the 🚬🚬🚬

  • @jimcannon7410
    @jimcannon7410 4 місяці тому

    Get out and vote reform uk

    • @davidhoward4715
      @davidhoward4715 4 місяці тому

      Yes, split the right-wing scumbag vote!

  • @stevenbryson3891
    @stevenbryson3891 4 місяці тому +1

    Stop the boats

  • @jgnasher7048
    @jgnasher7048 4 місяці тому

    Fancy getting rid of the old Boner, then putting up mrs Boner, i mean come on.

  • @adrianaspalinky1986
    @adrianaspalinky1986 4 місяці тому

    #GeneralElectionNow

  • @martinwilby8942
    @martinwilby8942 4 місяці тому +1

    REFORM

  • @graemetodd3069
    @graemetodd3069 4 місяці тому

    Naga is a very attractive woman......

  • @nickvinehill7491
    @nickvinehill7491 4 місяці тому +1

    As expected Labour won both by-elections in Kingswood and Wellingborough with big swings from the Tories.
    However are those swings as significant as they seem particularly in regard to the usual by-election low voter turnouts?
    What were many voters, particularly ex Tory voters actually voting for by casting their votes for Labour?
    Clearly alluding to the Corbyn era, since Starmer became leader he has proudly claimed, much to the delight of the mainstream media, that he’s changed Labour and made it electable by suspending socialists and ‘anti semites’ from the party. He has cowardly U turned and flip flopped on many hardly radical reform ideas like the Carbon Green Tax and even admitted Labour is now a fiscally Conservative Party.
    To that end, Labour under Starmer today might as well be another Tory pressure group and join the many factions the Tories (and the Reform Party on the outside); have divided themselves into to deceive voters that one faction can run their same failed ideology better than the other.
    Consequently all those Labour voters voted for was a change of personnel and management in the deluded belief that different faces would reform the same failed neoliberal and macro economic system for the better.
    It’s an illusion and one reason why Sunak or whoever might call the election in January because it will put pressure on Starmer to reveal what his ‘changed electable Labour and its alternative policies really stand for.

    • @rjjcms1
      @rjjcms1 4 місяці тому

      I suspect a section of disillusioned Conservative voters switched to Reform and the rest stayed at home. Middle ground,swing voters switched from the Conservatives to Labour. Sunak will probably string it out to the latest date he can while Labour have to prove themselves to be a credible government-in-waiting. The behaviour of some unpleasant,and indeed anti-Semitic individuals,damaged Corbyn's campaign but he lost by such a crushing margin that it's clear the overwhelming majority of the country did not regard his Labour as electable. The country is still in a bad economic state so the incoming government cannot play fast and loose with the finances in order to tick off its wish-list before getting the economy on a sounder footing,and that means bringing public debt down; with public services in such a run-down state,tax cuts,while desirable and right in the longer term,will largely have to wait until the situation is improved.

  • @edwardellery3032
    @edwardellery3032 4 місяці тому +11

    745000 reasons I'm voting REFORM in the next election never will I vote for Labour or the Tory party.I want my country back it was called England when I went to school.

    • @Andrew-tx9jy
      @Andrew-tx9jy 4 місяці тому +6

      It's not yours, it's ours...

    • @raymonddixon7603
      @raymonddixon7603 4 місяці тому

      I am afraid that will never happen. The empire and all it's vestiges are gone. UK is just another country with an outdated electoral system that will always give a Bert and Ernie result. A country on an inevitable slide.

    • @edwardellery3032
      @edwardellery3032 4 місяці тому

      That depends how long your familly have lived here.@@Andrew-tx9jy

    • @Geffo555
      @Geffo555 4 місяці тому +8

      Up to you. But most of us have had enough of right wing politics.
      We like the NHS and having employment rights
      Reform are just a more bonkers version of the Tories. NO THANKS!

    • @oldgrumpygrandtoursYT
      @oldgrumpygrandtoursYT 4 місяці тому +1

      @@Geffo555 Do You like the long waiting lists for the NHS? councils throwing OAP's out of their homes for immigrants, employment rights? is that the best you can argue with? Do some research into Reforms policies, and engage your brain before your feet.

  • @PotBanginEejit
    @PotBanginEejit 4 місяці тому

    What will England do when it loses 1/3 of its land and 98% of its oil?

    • @fitzstv8506
      @fitzstv8506 4 місяці тому

      Become a developing country!.

  • @bobcat2378
    @bobcat2378 4 місяці тому +1

    This means we will be left with Starmer even worse!😡

  • @user-iz3dq5sz3h
    @user-iz3dq5sz3h 4 місяці тому +2

    Four/ five years of labour will hopefully be long enough to remind everyone just how bad things can get while at the same time allow the conservatives to get their act together.

    • @Joe-og6br
      @Joe-og6br 4 місяці тому

      🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

    • @tonycook7679
      @tonycook7679 4 місяці тому +2

      You mean Tice and his mob of halfwits?

    • @astratan2238
      @astratan2238 4 місяці тому +1

      We were far better off in 2010 than we are now.

    • @fitzstv8506
      @fitzstv8506 4 місяці тому

      In 2010/11 the UK was a poster boy country respected all over the world, now in 2024 the UK is the laughing stock of the globe and enjoys zero respect even among it's allies...The UK has been governed by the Tories for more than a decade now so it does not take a genius to explain the UK's fall form grace over this period but it does take an idiot not to see it.

    • @ianstrange5674
      @ianstrange5674 4 місяці тому +1

      @user-iz3dq5sz3h
      What an utter load of tripe!!!
      Where have you been living for the past 14 years?

  • @bobjrdj
    @bobjrdj 4 місяці тому

    It's not the tory's who are left with a mountain to climb. It's ordinary people who have to survive after years of tory devastation and hatred of the working classes whilst giving asylum seekers everything for free at our expense.
    Trouble is, Labour will do exactly the same thing.

    • @fitzstv8506
      @fitzstv8506 4 місяці тому +1

      Naw it's the Tories who are to blame!.

  • @johnrmce
    @johnrmce 4 місяці тому +1

    Any fool that believes Labour is the answer will end up bitterly disappointed after a few years of them in office. The Tories need voting out also but hold on tight Labour are going to be a catastrophe

    • @fitzstv8506
      @fitzstv8506 4 місяці тому

      You are obviously a believer in Reform UK. Reform urged their supporters to vote Tory at the last GE believing Johnson would 'reform' the UK, Reform were wrong on all fronts then and they remain wrong now. Labour are the only Political Party that can possibly repair the UK and it's relationship with Europe to secure a future for all.

    • @esseker6320
      @esseker6320 4 місяці тому

      How?.

    • @fitzstv8506
      @fitzstv8506 4 місяці тому

      By undoing the errors of the past 14 years and repairing the damage brexit has inflicted on the relationship with the UK's European neighbours. For details please consult your local Labour representatives.@@esseker6320

    • @johnrmce
      @johnrmce 4 місяці тому

      @@fitzstv8506 I would rather disrupt the system than vote for the same economic model that has failed and Labour are offering the same beans different can

    • @johnrmce
      @johnrmce 4 місяці тому

      @@esseker6320 Labours economic model is a centre left borrow spend and I think we know it has failed with the Tories who have basically borrowed so much now that we spend 4.4% on interest alone

  • @fatherjack1148
    @fatherjack1148 4 місяці тому +7

    At the age of 70 and for the first time in my life the prospect on an incoming LABOUR government fills me with the same dread usually reserved only for an incoming Tory government.
    The fact that droves of Tory voters are switching to Labour says it ALL.
    For the first time in my life I shall *NOT* be voting Labour in a general election, indeed I shall *NEVER* vote Labour again in however many elections I may have left.
    I can not and *WILL* not, vote for a man who lied and cheated his way into the leadership job, then BETRAYED the people he lied to in order to cheat them out of their votes.
    he has dropped EVERY SINGLE ONE of the ten 'pledges' he made in order to con the left of the party into voting for him because without the left on his side he had NO chance.
    he then set about purging the very people he lied to in order to cheat them out of their votes, from the party.
    "OH things change" say his excusers, OF COURSE THEY DO,... but to the point where he has had to drop not only ALL 10 of the 'firm' promises he made, he's since gone on to drop most of the ones he made to replace them.
    *One* of his barefaced lies was that he would reverse the Tories VILE and cruel 2 child benefit cap, but when he got the boss's job he dropped that and adopted fully the Tory (F-K em let em starve) policy, in favour of not upsetting his new found friends 'big business' by putting the greedy before the needy, an act of sheer betrayal for which he gained enormous applause and cheers... from the F-ing TORIES!!
    He has *refused* to say he will repeal the Tories anti Union laws, and their anti freedom to protest laws (got a feeling you will need them eh? Sir kid starver?)
    But obviously the thing that still shocks me every single day is that there are fellow British subjects out there who are openly prepared to vote for a man who unashamedly supports genocide and war crimes, he said that he believed that Israel has the *RIGHT* to break international law, to carry out genocide and war crimes, to intentionally target, hospitals, ambulances, refugee camps PACKED with defenceless unarmed women and children, to turn off food water and all medical aid, to actually target relief columns, to allow some food in, only to bomb the bakeries later when they KNEW crowds of starving women and children would gathered there. these are WAR CRIMES, and he MUST be made to answer for them.
    But hey, if you don't posses a conscience and can sleep at night happy to think of the little boy describing how an Israeli shell landed in his mothers lap and it took them over a week to find most of her body parts in their destroyed home, then go ahead vote for that monster.
    I certainly will not vote for him neither will I ever vote for his party again in however many elections I may have left, they are as dead to me as that small boys mother.
    Every last Labour MP who has not resigned in horror at the actions of their genocide supporting leader is equally guilty.
    *NO CEASEFIRE NO VOTE*
    No damn vote anyway.

    • @Andrew-tx9jy
      @Andrew-tx9jy 4 місяці тому

      Oh shut up and get ready for a Labour government, whinger.

    • @coastalsandwich
      @coastalsandwich 4 місяці тому +4

      That's a selfish attitude to have, unsurprising from your generation.

    • @Geffo555
      @Geffo555 4 місяці тому

      Starmer has never supported genocide. So why make these twisted allegations.
      Desperation?
      And I doubt that you've ever voted Labour.

    • @kevinjohnson3782
      @kevinjohnson3782 4 місяці тому

      ​@@coastalsandwichYeah you are right. I am 70 and am so fed up with the tories wrecking the country. What choice do we have? No one else is going to stop these b@@tards.

    • @ashleywilson2072
      @ashleywilson2072 4 місяці тому +4

      I agree with every word. Well said, my friend!