just finished reading Dance again and in the Epilogue, Varys gives this long villainous like monologue to Kevin Lanister. Detailing Aegons preference to Tommen as king and the fact that Storms End will soon be taken, Like its a given fact? What might Varys know to make him so certain of future events? And yes admittedly, Varys rarely speaks plainly or even truthfully. Yet in private, to a dying man, it seems unlikely he would feel need to do otherwise. Oh, and has anyone notice just how creepy the children are in this scene? "White faced children with dark eyes, boys and girls together, and in their hands the Daggers!" Kind of like some other children we know?
I nkow GGRM writing computer is purposefully not connected to the internet but can´t help but imagine GRRM angrily typing away muttering after watching Prestons vids
Preston's battle plan theories have my convinced that he is secretly a medieval military mastermind. His battle plan for this is brilliant. Would love to see a video about who is the best tactician. Although that's more analysis than theorycrafting.
I know Mace Tyrell's force is superior in numbers but it does feel like a lot of people fail to mention the fact the Golden Company is 10,000 Professionally trained soldiers all well equipped, I know Jon Con only has about 5,500 men at the moment, but nonetheless I'd take 5,500 Elite disciplined troops over 20,000 Soldiers more then half of which are likely levies with weak morale, morale in battle is important so is discipline. If Jon Connington is smart he'll just Agincourt the Tyrell Cavalry into submission, though he probably has something with more trickery in mind, it's what I would do, even if we assume each castle taken has a garrison of 200 men, Jon Con still has 4,000-4,500 men against 5,000 Cavalry, if Jon Con has his longbowmen slaughter their horses in battle and then the Golden Company Cavalry finish them off, it'd be pretty decisive.
I think that Mace Tyrell will try to get Aegon to marry Margaery Tyrell. He has soured on the Lannisters. He wants Royal Grandchildren but Tommen is 8 and might be deposed by the High Septon if Tommen's true parentage is revealed, and Aegon is of the age with which he can impregnate Margaery.
Even if Tyrells are marching with a host of 30.000 men, they still should be no match for the golden company. On one side you have 10k professional soldiers, with countless amount of battles between them. 1/10 are elite archers, they have a elephant cavalry and only unsullied would rival their discipline. On the other side you have a bunch of inexperienced glory hungry tourney knights leading a force of armed peasants(which i'm assuming is the bulk of the tyrell force) and a known fool with a napoleon complex as a army commander. Considering they would have some time in preparing the ground as well, i'd say they are favorites by default, and are far from a dire situation like Stannis.
Vince Mazuka I wouldn’t be so sure. Don’t underestimate having the advantage of numbers. If the Tyrell’s are smart they can stretch out their line to basically three times that of golden company and still have the same deaths in their front line. Elephants are powerful but can be dealt with by spears and pikes which are some of the easiest and most common weapons(spears at least). As well I wouldn’t underestimate the Tyrell forces as a whole. The Tyrell’s have one of the richest lands in all of the seven kingdoms. So even if they are marching with peasants or footman they will have good equipment. As for the knights The reach produces some of the best knights even if they are tourney knight. The reach is know to have some of the best cavalry that is not only well armed but also disciplined. Not to mention most of their forces would be veterans by this point. Their troops would be raised and levied for many years. They would have a lot of training in their downtime and would’ve fought in the battle of the Blackwater and the battle for dragon stone. I do believe that the golden company will win the battle of steel but I do not think we should underestimate their opponent. They have more men and are just as well armored. They also have a cavalry advantage. It will be interesting to read and find out how Jon overcomes these obstacles. I do not mean to discredit you merely wanting to show people the true scope of the situation.
Not really, the troops that Mace has under his command aren't armed peasants or just untested tourney knights. They will be men-at-arms and infantry militias which should be well armed and armoured in maille and gambeson and brigandine. They have already fought at the Blackwater and have been marching and setting camps all across the south. Marching toughens up the men a lot. The golden company are good, and they are professional, but westerosi armi3s aren't completely worthless peasant mobs, though these reachmen will be commanded by mace Tyrell so their discipline won't be as good as under randyll or garlan.
I am almost sure that Jon wants to eliminate Tyrell host outside Storm's End and regroup, so Mace will mistake golden banners of Baratheons for golden banners of company and besiege Storm's End. That would fit to George Martin's 'third army suprisingly appears during battle' trait and kind of mirror the Blackwater.
Since Varys is with Illyrio and Illyrio is with Aegon and Jon Con. I think they would use some secret passage to the Storm's End, or use them to assassinate people like Mace Tyrell, like Varys killed Kevan and Pycelle
Preston has lost his mind, 3 P4W in a row, in a WEEK?! He must have been kidnapped in Iraq or Jordan or wherever the heck he went, and the captors are actually fans and are forcing him to finish all his series..... :D
Preston knows what he is doing. He nailed this chapter, and it was time to wrap it up. After he breaks down the Wall he's gonna march on the Vale, and everything between. Eventually he's gonna lead his mighty Presterosi host back to Dorne.... Make Dorne Deep Again!!
@Vince Mazuka his internet is awful over there. we've made attempts but it cuts out on random times. It probably took him hours just to upload this so I'm waiting on his return.
Maybe the two parts of the golden company will set up a false battle between them, with stormland banners on one side and golden banners and elephents on the other side. Then the cavalry will charge at the "flanks" of the golden army, just to be flanked by the other army, and attacked head-on by elephants.
I'm starting to think that the reason GRRM is taking so long to write the rest of his books is because he's actually REwriting to create new twists and storylines because Preston has uncovered too many of them.
Preston, if golden company men were able to take storms end and get the heir of dorne inside the castle... wouldn't that be a good way to ensure the Dornish would march to their aid?
In Dagon's day a weak king sat the Iron Throne, his rheumy eyes fixed across the narrow sea where bastards and exiles plotted rebellion. So forth from Pyke Lord Dagon sailed, to make the Sunset Sea his own. He bearded the lion in his den and tied the direwolf's tail in knots, but even Dagon could not defeat the dragons. "Obara, you will lead him to High Hermitage to beard Darkstar in his den." "Come the morrow, I sail to beard the dragon in its den." Strange of Arianne to use this term.
My prediction is a parallel to Ramsey taking Winterfell. Gold banners attack the token force outside so the people inside think the siege is being lifted and let the golden company inside (maybe Arianne could be a sign that the Dornish had come to Stannis’ aid or something idk). Then I think 5000 could hold storm’s end against a much larger force but also as you said, Mace could flip flop sides. Maybe there will also be trickery with the tyrell vanguard too but that might be unnecessary.
the only modification would make is that i think we will see a crecy or agincourt type battle which will allow connington to capture most of the tyrell cavalry leadership. i am pretty certain tarly will make a power grab and betray mace tyrell.
My issue with this plan isnt that it's too ruthless... It's that it depends on so many things that are just as likely not to happen: What if Doran Martell, a cautious man, didnt send a high-profile negotiator who they can use to get into Sorms End? What if he sends no one at all? What if the rape-rumour didnt reach the Red Keep in time? There's no guarantee for that to happen. What if the Tyrells dont split their army? They are in no rush. What if the Tyrells dont give their vanguard to Red Ronnet? In fact I see no reason why they would ever pick him. He's not even a bannerman of house Tyrell! Do you honestly think the Tyrells would give all their cav to a Stormlander on the basis that he is mad at JonCon?! Maes might not be a military genious but he is adviced by men like Randil Tarly (who returned to the capitol for the trial). In fact there's a good chance that Tarly will lead the vanguard... The only way Ronnet will lead the vanguard is if he is leading a host of Crownlanders/Stormlanders. What if Margaery Tyrell wins her trial? There's no way Maes would switch sides then. Even if everything before goes to plan the company would still end up defeated or besieged by the main Tyrell host. Imo this plan is too unrealistic/far fetched
I feel like the battle of Steel will be more like the battle of Roundway Down, which was a battle in the first English civil war, between the king and his royalists against the long Parliament. the royalists marched on the parliamentarians who were sieging the city, the parliamentarians had been informed of their arrival, and had abandoned the siege and marched to Roundway Down, hoping to defeat the royalists before more could sally from Devizes against his rear. He deployed his infantry and artillery in the centre of his line, with cavalry on each flank. Recent findings of cannonballs and musket and pistol shot have suggested that the site of the battle was not on the highest point of the down, but close to Oliver's castle, the place of an Iron Age Hillfort in front of what is today the Roundway Covert. Although the parliamentarians held the higher ground, the Royalists attacked first. Wilmot's brigade attacked the Parliamentarian left. The leading troops of this Parliamentarian wing were a fully armoured regiment of cuirassiers, the London lobsters under Sir Arthur Haselrig. They appeared to have met Wilmot's charge at the halt, and were thrown into confusion and driven back into their second line. After a brief contest, they retreated in disorder. The view from the scarp known as 'Oliver's Castle' into the 'Bloody Ditch.' Byron attacked the Parliamentarian right, commanded by Waller, under fire from the guns and musketeers of their centre. Once again, the Parliamentarians halted to receive the charge and were shaken by the clash. They too, gave way and fled, pursued by Byron. Some of the fleeing Parliamentarians died when they were forced to gallop over "Oliver's Castle" and over an unseen 300 feet precipice near Roundway village, now called locally the Bloody Ditch. Wilmot's and Byron's troopers rallied and turned on the Parliamentarian centre. They captured at least four of the Parliamentarians' cannons and turned them on the infantry. The 2,000 Roundhead foot held out for a while, until Hopton's infantry, who had marched up from Devizes Castle, deployed to attack. The Roundheads then tried to retreat northwards but failed and the survivors threw down their arms. About 600 Parliamentarian troops were killed, and some 1,000 were captured. I have no doubt the battle of Steel will follow a similar layout to the battle of Roundway Down, the cavalry will break from the siege and charge when they hear trumpets over the hill, they will break the siege and enter lines charging the position, they believe to hold the army. The first troops to get there will suffer from poor visibility, so the Elephants will most likely catch the first people to arrive forcing them off the edge, then they will turn around and begin to fight the rest of the force which they will hold against the Aegon forces until the Calvalry see troops arriving from there rear forcing them to retreat back to the rest of the Tyrel army, losing many men in the flight.
You are absolutely correct about Jon Con. He wants this victory badly enough to lie, cheat, or steal, a win. He doesn't have enough time anymore (his infection is worsening). And he still has to keep a promise to his "Silver Prince".
YESSSSS SANSA... erm I mean... ALAYNE QUEEN !!! This makes me so happy, I cant wait to hear Preston analyze this chapter, I want his take on sassy Sansa...that Harry the Arse is just an upjumped squire!
If the simplest answer is normally the correct one, then it seems obvious that Arriene is going to be used to get the cove entrance open for Aegonnington. What I can't figure out is how the false and negative news ravened back to Doran will screw everything up. I'm sure it will somehow and it will probably benefit Dany. But I cannot wait for the WoW, thank you Preston for entertaining us during the wait
+3:30 In GoT, Tyrion fights in the Battle on the Green Fork, but doesn't affect the battle beyond his recruitment of the Mountain Clans. (Ch. 62, Tyrion 8). Tywin Lannister and Roose Bolton choose the battlefield, though Bolton chose to make a battle of it. Through Tyrion's POV, we get a perspective on Tywin's mind when he deliberately stacks Tyrion's command with the least disciplined forces. We also get a foreshadowing that Roose Bolton's interests aren't alligned with Robb Stark, based on how the Northern Forces are set into action. Catelyn gets a grandstand view of the Battle of the Whispering Wood, in the next chapter (Ch. 63, Catelyn 10). Robb and Blackfish choose the Woods and enticed Jamie Lannister into their trap by pretending the North/River forces deployed there is a weak scouting party, instead of the main fighting force. Catelyn doesn't fight, but she affected the outcome right up to the deployment of Northmen against Jamie when she persuades Robb to increase his own roster of bodyguards, which saves Robb's life, leads to Jamie's capture and changes Northern power dynamic through the death's of the Karstark heirs. Which paradigm with the Battle of Steel follow? The Battle of Ice parallels the Green Fork in that Bolton and Stannis are utilizing their most marginally loyal forces in ways that limit their own exposure for blowback (btw, I agree with Preston's reading of the Theon and Asha chapters as Battle of Ice foreshadowing). If the Aegon alliance is hobbled by historical Blackfyre & Bittersteel/Martell distrust, it might follow the strategic winnowing of inside forces like Green Fork. If JonCon is relying on tricking the Reachers where and who are the strongest GoldenSteel forces, then it's a parallel to the Woods. Or its a new paradigm.
I think rather than the oxen with torches, JonCon could have used the 10 days to prepare wooden spikes (that could also be the contents of the wagons, and since we see them leaving the rainwood, that could mean they have been harvesting tree trunks from the forest to use for this very purpose). I also don't necessarily think the riders will go ahead of the army, perhaps some scouts but not all the cavalry, that would be a disastrous military decision. Rather I think JonCon might bank on catching the Tyrells in a rear attack using their Tarth forces. The numerically superior Tyrell army will march towards the smaller Golden Company force, standing far enough away from Storms End that the Tyrells will be unable to discern who holds the castle (though as you said they might be able to see yellow banners and incorrectly assume the castle is lost). In the mist most of the battlefield will have poor visibility, but discerning the obviously inferior force in front of them, the Tyrells might foolishly charge, hoping to overpower the enemy by locking them in place with their infantry, and then sending their cavalry around to their flank. Their flank will however be guarded by spikes, and the initial cavalry charge will be devastated by the wooden spikes. At this point, trumpets will sound, which will be the signal for the army coming from Tarth-, that has been hidden behind hills or cliffs and by the mist, to attack. The Elephants coming on the Tyrell flank or rear will spook the rest of the Tyrell cavalry, and trapped between the incoming elephants and the wall of wooden spikes they will run helplessly off the cliffs to their deaths. Meanwhile in the confusion as trumpets and Elephants sound in the mist, the remaining Golden Company infantry coming from Tarth will envelop the Tyrells from the rear, the elephants will come about and hit them on the flank, pressing them on three sides if not making a complete encirclement. This might force the Tyrells into surrendering despite having the numerically superior force.
is the soldier numbers correct? I always thought the Reach being the largest in population of the 7 kingdoms and Renlys claim of having 80 000 soldiers was the real number. Perhaps even higher if the Hightowers didn't fully commit to the Renly campaign their army might number in the 100 000.
I've been mostly intrigued by your observation regarding Elia Sand as a proxy for Lyanna. I wonder if this chapter also offers clues as to how Lyanna was "kidnapped." As we're seeing with Arienne's dilemma, there's some ambiguity here depending on your point of view. One way or another Arienne is getting on that ship, but when you see it unfold from her perspective, you see that she made the choice to put one foot in front of the other each time.
+DireCrow Wu Under normal circumstances, I would agree with you; but considering the enlightenment that Preston has dropped on our assess for the longest ...I just think it's time to admit our shortcomings, and revert back to the ways of our jolly 'Ol ancestors.
Oh. I wonder if there was some adult/child relations between Daemon and Oberyn. We're told in Arianne I that there was a rumor about the 2 of them being lovers... and Daemon being less than impressed with Oberyn once again reiterates that adult/child relationships are wrong on all accounts.
I have always thought it interesting that Theon keeps hearing his name from the weirwoods and now this with the Ravens in his room. Thinking about it, I would understand if it were Bran trying to get Theon to remember his name and be a man again and all that heartwarming inspirational stuff. That being said, what if it is the opposite. If you watch demon movies and stuff like that, demons are always trying to possess children or people with poor mental states or people that have gone through trauma. Theon is broken, although he is starting to mend a bit, he has had a considerable amount of trauma put onto him and, like you said, his memory and things have been shotty at best. What if Bran is trying to warg Theon? When Varamyr tried to warg Thistle she bit her tongue out and everything but she was also strong of body and mind. Bran can warg Hodor, though, because his mind is gone (maybe, I feel like there is more to Hodor than meets the eye but that point might also be moot). Here we have Bran watching Theon in a lot through weirwoods and ravens, which could follow your logic of needing to be present in the life of whatever it is you are trying to warg in order to gain a psychic link, not to mention Theon has always been in Brans life so some link could exist. If Theon's uncles are powerful psychics, Bran could be using the fact that Theon may be as well to reach out and be a part of the action. At the end of the day, Theon is a Greyjoy and would put Bran/Bloodraven in a good position...
I've always had the feeling that they are actually going to use Roberts Bastard son that Davos has sent to the stepstones to claim the castle of storms end they landed all over that places it's likely they came across him Its likely edrick storm at the front of a host or beside Aegon would be welcomed right on in
This is what I think. The Golden Company stopped at Lys to take on water and that is where Edric Storm currently is. Everyone at Storm's End liked Edric and he's connected to many non-Tyrell families in The Reach, including the Florents, the Tarly's and the Hightowers.
I read that and it's pretty cool. It's actually how i feel the battle will be like, Agincourt with elephants. But Preston's guess seems solid as well. Also, ASOIAF fans should read "Agincourt" by Bernard Cornwell, great medieval war novel.
Very interesting analysis. And it brings light to Connigtons possible plans. However, for me the actions of Doran Martell remain mysterious. Why does Doran Martell send his two heirs on dangerous undercover missions with inadequate company and protection. He wants these missions to fail. But why than does he initiate the missions in the first place. What does he gain from the two trips? He must have known that Arianne is not the optimal war reporter. If he wants first hand news he could have sent someone better skilled and less prominent. He could have sent other negotiators to talk with Dany und Young Griff. Why didn't he prepare his children for ruling? Within the plans you described, it makes sense to stir up revolutional feelings in Arianne. But doing so persistently and recurringly makes an inadequate education for a future ruler. Are his children justs pawns for him? He is an old and ill man. Who in his opinion will rule Dorne? Does he want to install Trystan and dispose of his two elder not very smart children? Or maybe the missions are some sort of Telemachos-trip, a late educational effort and a way to get them out of reach to protect them in an escalating conflict with the Lannisters while telling them they do something important? Or he needs them out of the way at home for some other reason? Why does he send them away?
This is such an interesting story, I hope we get some more chapters in Winds if its ever released. I wouldn't be surprised if these were the only chapters of Arianne in the whole book lol
Did he say around 2:30 that the Martells have three thousand spears, 3x the numbers of Jon Con? I think he meant thirty thousand, right? (I'm not as fluent in English as I used to be, lol)
The Rainwood terrain is very similar to tropical jungles, not at all 'impossible' for elephants. The British had to use elephants for logistics in the BCI theatre in WW2 where horses and trucks couldn't go.
not exactly, i say that because GRRM seems to be paying attention to theories and actively tries to write a story different from what was theorized. in the past two decades of aSoIaF theorizing, only a handful have ever been validated in the story so far.
George said that since even in those early years people got some things right, he decided he wouldn't look to fan theories anymore so they woudn't influence his writing, and he said he decided to keep the same twists even though some people correctly guessed them, since he had forshadowed them and not doing them would be doing a 180.
I think Doran Martell has sent Arianne intentionally to be taken as a hostage by the Golden Company. This way he can appear to be forced into an alliance with Aegon should they lose the war. This will parallel Robert's Rebellion where the Martells were seemingly forced to ally with the Targaryens because Aerys kept Elia Martell and her kids close. Another parallel that you might have skipped over is that this will be the second time Mace Tyrell will presumably be sieging Storm's End against the force of Stannis Baratheon.
not that I'm complaining, I love the chapter discussions but Preston PLEASE find time for the 1000 worlds book club. I'm dying to hear your analysis of sandkinds and a song for lya :D
I think Storm's End and elephants I think of thunder and low visibility and the cliffs remembering how Tyrell dad died. See where I am going with this one? 😉🔥💜 Enjoy Con everyone going wish I could be there 😎💜
The center is red but the back is still golden. And in the rain wet banners will appear just cloth of gold like the Golden Company. Think about it their words are even "Beneath the gold the Bitter Steal"
Twas a tragedy when Lord Luthor met his demise in such a fashion. The gods would surely piss themselves with merriment if the same should befall his heir.
Ok, it might be Arienne 1, I could be wrong. And I don't want to mention any names......but the initials are OotGH.....don't like to say too much because I have run afoul of them by saying a theory of theirs was farfetched, and they got kinda nasty. Not at all like Preston who says, "I'm probably wrong about half of this."
Sybille Stahl same thing happened to me. Theyve had a couple good theories but most of them are pretty dumb anyways. Not near is good, knowledgeable and thorough as Preston
Hello Preston, im little bit confused about your calculation of Tyrell force. While i agree that 50 000 is propably Tyrell strength, we still have to consider Stormlands forces that are propably under Mace Tyrell command. Lady Mertyns told Arianne that her sons are still off at war and Weeping Town could afford only 50 men, so Stormlands army is not back home and they are with someone. We can dismiss Garlan as his part of host was to be demobilised in Reach and it is unlikely that they are all with Randyll Tarly. Yes, it was mentioned that he has soldiers from Stormlands, yet with 50 000 of Tyrells, Stormlands had 30 000 in Renly's Bitterbridge camp. Loses during Duskendale battle was reported both "heavy" (by Varys) and less than thousand (by Brienne) and Tarly had also knights from the Reach and foot from Westerlands. We cant also put the blame on Stannis loses as he lost only "several thousand" and 666 (xD) knights and lords. Mace can still have 30 000-40 000 troops counting 10 000 cavalry (of initial 20 000 both stormlands and reach in Renly's camp) during Battle of Steel.
I think you're right. There were definitely Stormland forces under the command of Randle Tarly. 20,000 is really the bare minimum number. Even in a best case scenario, JonCon is outnumbered 2:1. But, you're right, it could be as high as 4:1.
I was wondering if stormlands knights could be big factor in case of switching sides to Aegon. Afterall it would fit their arc well, as they served both Renly, Stannis and Lannisters.
The attack on Storm's End may be a feint, one needs to remember that the only reason Jon Con suggests an assault on Storm's End is for symbolic purposes, & he says he intends to win it by guile. There's no strategic value in attacking Storm's End when the objective is Kings Landing ultimately, & it is even suggested to Jon Con that this is counter productive because Stannis is also fighting the Lannisters-Tyrells. My suspicion is that it's a feint & that there will be hardly a fight at all, the real objective of Jon Con is actually Dragonstone. Dragonstone has far more symbolic value at the seat of House Targeryen & it is not far from Kings Landing, a good base from which to operate & defend being surrounded by sea & easy to launch incursions towards Kings Landing. That's just my feeling on the matter, the Tyrells are going to be tricked & they are going to suffer for it, meanwhile Paxter Redwyne is about to have his fleet destroyed by krakens that Euron Greyjoy is summoning from the deep. So the Reach is about to be invaded by Ironmen, the Rivelands possibly attacked from the Vale by Littlefinger's machiniations, & Kings Landing will be captured by the Golden Company in alliance with Dorne. This is why Arrianne is on a ship, I think she's going to Dragonstone.
12:48 in davos 2 clash of kings stannis told Davos that bitterbridge has 60,000 a foot this not the forces that bend the to him and the Calvary loras is in charge of
Joven Christopher No "nukes" have flown over Japan, Missiles have though. Although their "Dear Leader" just threatened to do so. If he does you'll know it because our "Dear Leader" will have to show everyone around the world that when he draws a "red line" that he won't let his opponent cross it without consequences. It was dangerous and stupid when Obama did it in Syria and it's stupid and dangerous now, except now we're talking thermonuclear weapons... What could possibly go wrong?
Doran's reasoning by sending Arianne may be to declare war on the hostage takers. Seeing her as 30.000 spears for the taking may prove to be a mistake. And cause 30.000 to march on them. I do not believe Doran would do the same thing twice..as to fight for the safety of the children (like with Arys) I think he's ready to sacrifice everything. And use everyone. Talk about ruthlessness..but he IS sending his heirs into the fire. Which i still can't reason out why..they aren't good for anything special, despite what they are.
But how could joncon have anticipated a high status person like arianne coming? As you said it doesn’t make sense for doran to send her so he shouldn’t be basing his siege on that right? It does seem like he has a plan for her but I don’t see how considering there’s no way he would have known about her arrival previously right? Unless this was all planned in like 11 days
I doubt I'd have gotten a 1/10th of the information Preston gleaned from these two Arianne chapters. To me, they were the most boring of the released chapters though that may be due to not being a fan of Arianne's thought process. Still, watching these videos may make the reread better as I now can concentrate on location of forces and what people are saying to Arianne instead of what she thinks she hears. Shame Mercy wasn't next, however there's more information about Westeros in Alayne's chapter.
I think your wrong about red ronnet leading the tyrell calvary when he was in king's landing no one trusted him so why would mace give him a quarter of current forces it doesn't make sense it would most likely be Randall tarly in command of the calvary like he has been since Robert's rebellion
I love that you said the Tyrell forces would fall off a cliff considering that is how the Queen of Thorne's husband was said to have died. 😂😂😂
great point!
It’s these little details that we notice that make us the obsessive nerds that we are 😂
Holy fucking dot connecting. Preston just damn near nailed it. Well struck Ser
But what if Gilbert Farring is actually Gylbert Farwynd?
Borim Maibe no way sir!
"and would meet another favorite theme of a secret character reveal"
When you are bored and you are rewatching old Preston videos and get that notification...That's the dream!
Raziel
i call that a typical Sunday.
literally what I was doing
I was on my millionth rewatch of The Minds of Wolves and Robins, on Pt 2 when I got the news!
Raziel lol yeah easy way to have something on for 15-20minutes in the background
Raziel so true❣️
Yes! The Jon Con/Tywin connection how ruthless you have to become to win and Jon Con having to do this fast because of his grayscale
He is running out of time
just finished reading Dance again and in the Epilogue, Varys gives this long villainous like monologue to Kevin Lanister. Detailing Aegons preference to Tommen as king and the fact that Storms End will soon be taken, Like its a given fact?
What might Varys know to make him so certain of future events?
And yes admittedly, Varys rarely speaks plainly or even truthfully. Yet in private, to a dying man, it seems unlikely he would feel need to do otherwise.
Oh, and has anyone notice just how creepy the children are in this scene? "White faced children with dark eyes, boys and girls together, and in their hands the Daggers!"
Kind of like some other children we know?
I nkow GGRM writing computer is purposefully not connected to the internet but can´t help but imagine GRRM angrily typing away muttering after watching Prestons vids
I'm surprised you didn't point out the possibility of poetic irony with mace Tyrell falling off a cliff like his Lord father.
Preston's battle plan theories have my convinced that he is secretly a medieval military mastermind. His battle plan for this is brilliant. Would love to see a video about who is the best tactician. Although that's more analysis than theorycrafting.
Admit it Preston, you want to do the Alayne chapter because it has your favourite Sweetrobin ;)
Well, dont we all waht that too?~
The Fossaway banners look like the label for a hard cider drink.
Jaunita Hyatt maybe fearsomely strong cider?
Brilliant as always, Preston. Thanks a million.
I know Mace Tyrell's force is superior in numbers but it does feel like a lot of people fail to mention the fact the Golden Company is 10,000 Professionally trained soldiers all well equipped, I know Jon Con only has about 5,500 men at the moment, but nonetheless I'd take 5,500 Elite disciplined troops over 20,000 Soldiers more then half of which are likely levies with weak morale, morale in battle is important so is discipline.
If Jon Connington is smart he'll just Agincourt the Tyrell Cavalry into submission, though he probably has something with more trickery in mind, it's what I would do, even if we assume each castle taken has a garrison of 200 men, Jon Con still has 4,000-4,500 men against 5,000 Cavalry, if Jon Con has his longbowmen slaughter their horses in battle and then the Golden Company Cavalry finish them off, it'd be pretty decisive.
And he got elephants too
I think that Mace Tyrell will try to get Aegon to marry Margaery Tyrell. He has soured on the Lannisters. He wants Royal Grandchildren but Tommen is 8 and might be deposed by the High Septon if Tommen's true parentage is revealed, and Aegon is of the age with which he can impregnate Margaery.
It's time to start a *Preston Jacobs* fan fiction tag on _Archive of our Own_ . With great reader x Preston story titles such as "Preston goes Deeper"
Dorne Deep
Whispers from a red mask~
Looks like it came through 5yrs later
Preston "Prep Daddy" Jacobs
Even if Tyrells are marching with a host of 30.000 men, they still should be no match for the golden company.
On one side you have 10k professional soldiers, with countless amount of battles between them. 1/10 are elite archers, they have a elephant cavalry and only unsullied would rival their discipline.
On the other side you have a bunch of inexperienced glory hungry tourney knights leading a force of armed peasants(which i'm assuming is the bulk of the tyrell force) and a known fool with a napoleon complex as a army commander. Considering they would have some time in preparing the ground as well, i'd say they are favorites by default, and are far from a dire situation like Stannis.
Vince Mazuka I wouldn’t be so sure. Don’t underestimate having the advantage of numbers. If the Tyrell’s are smart they can stretch out their line to basically three times that of golden company and still have the same deaths in their front line. Elephants are powerful but can be dealt with by spears and pikes which are some of the easiest and most common weapons(spears at least).
As well I wouldn’t underestimate the Tyrell forces as a whole. The Tyrell’s have one of the richest lands in all of the seven kingdoms. So even if they are marching with peasants or footman they will have good equipment. As for the knights The reach produces some of the best knights even if they are tourney knight. The reach is know to have some of the best cavalry that is not only well armed but also disciplined. Not to mention most of their forces would be veterans by this point. Their troops would be raised and levied for many years. They would have a lot of training in their downtime and would’ve fought in the battle of the Blackwater and the battle for dragon stone.
I do believe that the golden company will win the battle of steel but I do not think we should underestimate their opponent. They have more men and are just as well armored. They also have a cavalry advantage. It will be interesting to read and find out how Jon overcomes these obstacles. I do not mean to discredit you merely wanting to show people the true scope of the situation.
Not really, the troops that Mace has under his command aren't armed peasants or just untested tourney knights. They will be men-at-arms and infantry militias which should be well armed and armoured in maille and gambeson and brigandine. They have already fought at the Blackwater and have been marching and setting camps all across the south. Marching toughens up the men a lot.
The golden company are good, and they are professional, but westerosi armi3s aren't completely worthless peasant mobs, though these reachmen will be commanded by mace Tyrell so their discipline won't be as good as under randyll or garlan.
I am almost sure that Jon wants to eliminate Tyrell host outside Storm's End and regroup, so Mace will mistake golden banners of Baratheons for golden banners of company and besiege Storm's End. That would fit to George Martin's 'third army suprisingly appears during battle' trait and kind of mirror the Blackwater.
Since Varys is with Illyrio and Illyrio is with Aegon and Jon Con. I think they would use some secret passage to the Storm's End, or use them to assassinate people like Mace Tyrell, like Varys killed Kevan and Pycelle
Preston has lost his mind, 3 P4W in a row, in a WEEK?!
He must have been kidnapped in Iraq or Jordan or wherever the heck he went, and the captors are actually fans and are forcing him to finish all his series.....
:D
he has been very very bored and has a lot of free time in Iraq
Preston knows what he is doing. He nailed this chapter, and it was time to wrap it up. After he breaks down the Wall he's gonna march on the Vale, and everything between. Eventually he's gonna lead his mighty Presterosi host back to Dorne....
Make Dorne Deep Again!!
WHERE IS THE PODCAST!?
Game of thrones would be haram there lol.
@Vince Mazuka his internet is awful over there. we've made attempts but it cuts out on random times. It probably took him hours just to upload this so I'm waiting on his return.
Thanks for releasing on my bday preston! :) You're the man that's keeping me sane while waiting for wow
Happy birthday!
One of the best analysis yet, you have made a quite boring POV chapter into one of the most intriguing
If Preston was born in middle ages in a kingdom, that kingdom would surely ruled the world.
Maybe the two parts of the golden company will set up a false battle between them, with stormland banners on one side and golden banners and elephents on the other side. Then the cavalry will charge at the "flanks" of the golden army, just to be flanked by the other army, and attacked head-on by elephants.
Isenskjold Good one!
Dorne only has 3000 spears? Surely you meant 30,000 spears?
Yeh i noticed that...proberbly
was about to say the same
Didn't Quentyn offer Daenerys 50,000?
J. Pablo Palancares yeah but its an exaggeration. Its around 30k
Guilty A *3x larger than the GC. Tyrells have 20k
I really love your Battle of Steel predictions. Very well reasoned.
I'm starting to think that the reason GRRM is taking so long to write the rest of his books is because he's actually REwriting to create new twists and storylines because Preston has uncovered too many of them.
PREP ME, DADDY PRESTON, PREP ME!!
Preston, if golden company men were able to take storms end and get the heir of dorne inside the castle... wouldn't that be a good way to ensure the Dornish would march to their aid?
Yellowisk Sheppard Hahaha good one
In Dagon's day a weak king sat the Iron Throne, his rheumy eyes fixed across the narrow sea where bastards and exiles plotted rebellion. So forth from Pyke Lord Dagon sailed, to make the Sunset Sea his own. He bearded the lion in his den and tied the direwolf's tail in knots, but even Dagon could not defeat the dragons.
"Obara, you will lead him to High Hermitage to beard Darkstar in his den."
"Come the morrow, I sail to beard the dragon in its den."
Strange of Arianne to use this term.
My prediction is a parallel to Ramsey taking Winterfell. Gold banners attack the token force outside so the people inside think the siege is being lifted and let the golden company inside (maybe Arianne could be a sign that the Dornish had come to Stannis’ aid or something idk). Then I think 5000 could hold storm’s end against a much larger force but also as you said, Mace could flip flop sides. Maybe there will also be trickery with the tyrell vanguard too but that might be unnecessary.
i swear, by the old gods and the new, you are the best.
the only modification would make is that i think we will see a crecy or agincourt type battle which will allow connington to capture most of the tyrell cavalry leadership. i am pretty certain tarly will make a power grab and betray mace tyrell.
My issue with this plan isnt that it's too ruthless... It's that it depends on so many things that are just as likely not to happen:
What if Doran Martell, a cautious man, didnt send a high-profile negotiator who they can use to get into Sorms End? What if he sends no one at all?
What if the rape-rumour didnt reach the Red Keep in time? There's no guarantee for that to happen.
What if the Tyrells dont split their army? They are in no rush.
What if the Tyrells dont give their vanguard to Red Ronnet? In fact I see no reason why they would ever pick him. He's not even a bannerman of house Tyrell! Do you honestly think the Tyrells would give all their cav to a Stormlander on the basis that he is mad at JonCon?! Maes might not be a military genious but he is adviced by men like Randil Tarly (who returned to the capitol for the trial). In fact there's a good chance that Tarly will lead the vanguard...
The only way Ronnet will lead the vanguard is if he is leading a host of Crownlanders/Stormlanders.
What if Margaery Tyrell wins her trial? There's no way Maes would switch sides then. Even if everything before goes to plan the company would still end up defeated or besieged by the main Tyrell host.
Imo this plan is too unrealistic/far fetched
Anyone else worried about reading Winds of Winter? I feel like I'm going to not get a good 60% what's happening...
I am but for a very different reason
I feel like the battle of Steel will be more like the battle of Roundway Down, which was a battle in the first English civil war, between the king and his royalists against the long Parliament.
the royalists marched on the parliamentarians who were sieging the city, the parliamentarians had been informed of their arrival, and had abandoned the siege and marched to Roundway Down, hoping to defeat the royalists before more could sally from Devizes against his rear. He deployed his infantry and artillery in the centre of his line, with cavalry on each flank. Recent findings of cannonballs and musket and pistol shot have suggested that the site of the battle was not on the highest point of the down, but close to Oliver's castle, the place of an Iron Age Hillfort in front of what is today the Roundway Covert.
Although the parliamentarians held the higher ground, the Royalists attacked first. Wilmot's brigade attacked the Parliamentarian left. The leading troops of this Parliamentarian wing were a fully armoured regiment of cuirassiers, the London lobsters under Sir Arthur Haselrig. They appeared to have met Wilmot's charge at the halt, and were thrown into confusion and driven back into their second line. After a brief contest, they retreated in disorder.
The view from the scarp known as 'Oliver's Castle' into the 'Bloody Ditch.'
Byron attacked the Parliamentarian right, commanded by Waller, under fire from the guns and musketeers of their centre. Once again, the Parliamentarians halted to receive the charge and were shaken by the clash. They too, gave way and fled, pursued by Byron. Some of the fleeing Parliamentarians died when they were forced to gallop over "Oliver's Castle" and over an unseen 300 feet precipice near Roundway village, now called locally the Bloody Ditch.
Wilmot's and Byron's troopers rallied and turned on the Parliamentarian centre. They captured at least four of the Parliamentarians' cannons and turned them on the infantry. The 2,000 Roundhead foot held out for a while, until Hopton's infantry, who had marched up from Devizes Castle, deployed to attack. The Roundheads then tried to retreat northwards but failed and the survivors threw down their arms. About 600 Parliamentarian troops were killed, and some 1,000 were captured.
I have no doubt the battle of Steel will follow a similar layout to the battle of Roundway Down, the cavalry will break from the siege and charge when they hear trumpets over the hill, they will break the siege and enter lines charging the position, they believe to hold the army. The first troops to get there will suffer from poor visibility, so the Elephants will most likely catch the first people to arrive forcing them off the edge,
then they will turn around and begin to fight the rest of the force which they will hold against the Aegon forces until the Calvalry see troops arriving from there rear forcing them to retreat back to the rest of the Tyrel army, losing many men in the flight.
You are absolutely correct about Jon Con. He wants this victory badly enough to lie, cheat, or steal, a win.
He doesn't have enough time anymore (his infection is worsening). And he still has to keep a promise to his "Silver Prince".
YESSSSS
SANSA... erm I mean... ALAYNE QUEEN !!!
This makes me so happy, I cant wait to hear Preston analyze this chapter, I want his take on sassy Sansa...that Harry the Arse is just an upjumped squire!
If the simplest answer is normally the correct one, then it seems obvious that Arriene is going to be used to get the cove entrance open for Aegonnington. What I can't figure out is how the false and negative news ravened back to Doran will screw everything up. I'm sure it will somehow and it will probably benefit Dany. But I cannot wait for the WoW, thank you Preston for entertaining us during the wait
+3:30 In GoT, Tyrion fights in the Battle on the Green Fork, but doesn't affect the battle beyond his recruitment of the Mountain Clans. (Ch. 62, Tyrion 8). Tywin Lannister and Roose Bolton choose the battlefield, though Bolton chose to make a battle of it. Through Tyrion's POV, we get a perspective on Tywin's mind when he deliberately stacks Tyrion's command with the least disciplined forces. We also get a foreshadowing that Roose Bolton's interests aren't alligned with Robb Stark, based on how the Northern Forces are set into action.
Catelyn gets a grandstand view of the Battle of the Whispering Wood, in the next chapter (Ch. 63, Catelyn 10). Robb and Blackfish choose the Woods and enticed Jamie Lannister into their trap by pretending the North/River forces deployed there is a weak scouting party, instead of the main fighting force. Catelyn doesn't fight, but she affected the outcome right up to the deployment of Northmen against Jamie when she persuades Robb to increase his own roster of bodyguards, which saves Robb's life, leads to Jamie's capture and changes Northern power dynamic through the death's of the Karstark heirs.
Which paradigm with the Battle of Steel follow? The Battle of Ice parallels the Green Fork in that Bolton and Stannis are utilizing their most marginally loyal forces in ways that limit their own exposure for blowback (btw, I agree with Preston's reading of the Theon and Asha chapters as Battle of Ice foreshadowing). If the Aegon alliance is hobbled by historical Blackfyre & Bittersteel/Martell distrust, it might follow the strategic winnowing of inside forces like Green Fork. If JonCon is relying on tricking the Reachers where and who are the strongest GoldenSteel forces, then it's a parallel to the Woods.
Or its a new paradigm.
I think rather than the oxen with torches, JonCon could have used the 10 days to prepare wooden spikes (that could also be the contents of the wagons, and since we see them leaving the rainwood, that could mean they have been harvesting tree trunks from the forest to use for this very purpose).
I also don't necessarily think the riders will go ahead of the army, perhaps some scouts but not all the cavalry, that would be a disastrous military decision.
Rather I think JonCon might bank on catching the Tyrells in a rear attack using their Tarth forces. The numerically superior Tyrell army will march towards the smaller Golden Company force, standing far enough away from Storms End that the Tyrells will be unable to discern who holds the castle (though as you said they might be able to see yellow banners and incorrectly assume the castle is lost).
In the mist most of the battlefield will have poor visibility, but discerning the obviously inferior force in front of them, the Tyrells might foolishly charge, hoping to overpower the enemy by locking them in place with their infantry, and then sending their cavalry around to their flank.
Their flank will however be guarded by spikes, and the initial cavalry charge will be devastated by the wooden spikes. At this point, trumpets will sound, which will be the signal for the army coming from Tarth-, that has been hidden behind hills or cliffs and by the mist, to attack.
The Elephants coming on the Tyrell flank or rear will spook the rest of the Tyrell cavalry, and trapped between the incoming elephants and the wall of wooden spikes they will run helplessly off the cliffs to their deaths. Meanwhile in the confusion as trumpets and Elephants sound in the mist, the remaining Golden Company infantry coming from Tarth will envelop the Tyrells from the rear, the elephants will come about and hit them on the flank, pressing them on three sides if not making a complete encirclement. This might force the Tyrells into surrendering despite having the numerically superior force.
is the soldier numbers correct? I always thought the Reach being the largest in population of the 7 kingdoms and Renlys claim of having 80 000 soldiers was the real number. Perhaps even higher if the Hightowers didn't fully commit to the Renly campaign their army might number in the 100 000.
I've been mostly intrigued by your observation regarding Elia Sand as a proxy for Lyanna. I wonder if this chapter also offers clues as to how Lyanna was "kidnapped." As we're seeing with Arienne's dilemma, there's some ambiguity here depending on your point of view. One way or another Arienne is getting on that ship, but when you see it unfold from her perspective, you see that she made the choice to put one foot in front of the other each time.
I think we should start LITERALLY worshipping Preston, guys. It just FEELS right.
Mutherkuneker Presterosi bannermen swear sword and shield.. worship is for superstitious small folk...this is Presteros....this is known.
DireCrow Wu it is known
You're implying I don't already.
+Naylob Swisher Then you Ser, are a better man (woman?) than me.
You should be applauded.
+DireCrow Wu Under normal circumstances, I would agree with you; but considering the enlightenment that Preston has dropped on our assess for the longest ...I just think it's time to admit our shortcomings, and revert back to the ways of our jolly 'Ol ancestors.
Battle of Ice, Steel and Fire all in one boooook
And the Battle of Blood. The first quarter of TWoW will be nothing but the four battles.
Preston Jacobs battle of blood???
General Grievous Euron vs Oldtown&Redwyne-fleet
This is the best theory that you have ever produced. Holy shit.
Oh. I wonder if there was some adult/child relations between Daemon and Oberyn. We're told in Arianne I that there was a rumor about the 2 of them being lovers... and Daemon being less than impressed with Oberyn once again reiterates that adult/child relationships are wrong on all accounts.
Thank you Preston:) Can’t wait for Sansa chapter:))
When you're alone and live is making you lonely you can always count, on Preston! Good luck out in the East!
I have always thought it interesting that Theon keeps hearing his name from the weirwoods and now this with the Ravens in his room. Thinking about it, I would understand if it were Bran trying to get Theon to remember his name and be a man again and all that heartwarming inspirational stuff.
That being said, what if it is the opposite. If you watch demon movies and stuff like that, demons are always trying to possess children or people with poor mental states or people that have gone through trauma. Theon is broken, although he is starting to mend a bit, he has had a considerable amount of trauma put onto him and, like you said, his memory and things have been shotty at best. What if Bran is trying to warg Theon? When Varamyr tried to warg Thistle she bit her tongue out and everything but she was also strong of body and mind. Bran can warg Hodor, though, because his mind is gone (maybe, I feel like there is more to Hodor than meets the eye but that point might also be moot). Here we have Bran watching Theon in a lot through weirwoods and ravens, which could follow your logic of needing to be present in the life of whatever it is you are trying to warg in order to gain a psychic link, not to mention Theon has always been in Brans life so some link could exist. If Theon's uncles are powerful psychics, Bran could be using the fact that Theon may be as well to reach out and be a part of the action. At the end of the day, Theon is a Greyjoy and would put Bran/Bloodraven in a good position...
YESSSSSSS
I love you preston ur the best.
I've always had the feeling that they are actually going to use Roberts Bastard son that Davos has sent to the stepstones to claim the castle of storms end they landed all over that places it's likely they came across him Its likely edrick storm at the front of a host or beside Aegon would be welcomed right on in
which would mirror the first aegon and his general orys baratheon :)
This is what I think. The Golden Company stopped at Lys to take on water and that is where Edric Storm currently is. Everyone at Storm's End liked Edric and he's connected to many non-Tyrell families in The Reach, including the Florents, the Tarly's and the Hightowers.
Have you read BryndenBfish's theory that the battle will parallel Agincourt?
I read that and it's pretty cool. It's actually how i feel the battle will be like, Agincourt with elephants. But Preston's guess seems solid as well.
Also, ASOIAF fans should read "Agincourt" by Bernard Cornwell, great medieval war novel.
Very interesting analysis. And it brings light to Connigtons possible plans.
However, for me the actions of Doran Martell remain mysterious. Why does Doran Martell send his two heirs on dangerous undercover missions with inadequate company and protection. He wants these missions to fail. But why than does he initiate the missions in the first place. What does he gain from the two trips? He must have known that Arianne is not the optimal war reporter. If he wants first hand news he could have sent someone better skilled and less prominent. He could have sent other negotiators to talk with Dany und Young Griff.
Why didn't he prepare his children for ruling? Within the plans you described, it makes sense to stir up revolutional feelings in Arianne. But doing so persistently and recurringly makes an inadequate education for a future ruler. Are his children justs pawns for him?
He is an old and ill man. Who in his opinion will rule Dorne? Does he want to install Trystan and dispose of his two elder not very smart children? Or maybe the missions are some sort of Telemachos-trip, a late educational effort and a way to get them out of reach to protect them in an escalating conflict with the Lannisters while telling them they do something important? Or he needs them out of the way at home for some other reason? Why does he send them away?
This is such an interesting story, I hope we get some more chapters in Winds if its ever released. I wouldn't be surprised if these were the only chapters of Arianne in the whole book lol
Imagine having the Night Lamp, this, and Euron using fucking Krakens to sink ships in the SAME BOOK!??
Did he say around 2:30 that the Martells have three thousand spears, 3x the numbers of Jon Con? I think he meant thirty thousand, right? (I'm not as fluent in English as I used to be, lol)
Bruno Dutra yes you are correct. lord Preston, however amazing he is, is just a mortal after all
The Rainwood terrain is very similar to tropical jungles, not at all 'impossible' for elephants. The British had to use elephants for logistics in the BCI theatre in WW2 where horses and trucks couldn't go.
The Theory on the Battle of Steel makes so much sense, especially if Mace Tyrell leads the cavalry, as his death would mirror the death of his father
Excellent
Why do I get the feeling GRRM is actually watching this and taking notes.
Because you aren't good at thinking logically(if you're not being hyperbolic to show love to preston)?
not exactly, i say that because GRRM seems to be paying attention to theories and actively tries to write a story different from what was theorized. in the past two decades of aSoIaF theorizing, only a handful have ever been validated in the story so far.
a handful out of thousands, might i add.
George said that since even in those early years people got some things right, he decided he wouldn't look to fan theories anymore so they woudn't influence his writing, and he said he decided to keep the same twists even though some people correctly guessed them, since he had forshadowed them and not doing them would be doing a 180.
Based on the previous video, should it be called the "Battle of Fog" or "Battle of Mist" instead of the "Battle of Steel"?
Preston, where the fuck is my Sandkings.
Don't know if this has been brought up before, but couldn't the elephants be support from Volantis rather than litteral elephants?
I think Doran Martell has sent Arianne intentionally to be taken as a hostage by the Golden Company. This way he can appear to be forced into an alliance with Aegon should they lose the war. This will parallel Robert's Rebellion where the Martells were seemingly forced to ally with the Targaryens because Aerys kept Elia Martell and her kids close.
Another parallel that you might have skipped over is that this will be the second time Mace Tyrell will presumably be sieging Storm's End against the force of Stannis Baratheon.
But why would Doran want to do that? It makes no sense. It's against his whole charachter.
@@robertsmith8734 it's to minimise damage to dorne if they lose the war. Although I admit I don't think that's the case.
not that I'm complaining, I love the chapter discussions but Preston PLEASE find time for the 1000 worlds book club. I'm dying to hear your analysis of sandkinds and a song for lya :D
I think Storm's End and elephants I think of thunder and low visibility and the cliffs remembering how Tyrell dad died. See where I am going with this one? 😉🔥💜 Enjoy Con everyone going wish I could be there 😎💜
Stannis not fly the fiery heart banner, not the golden stag?
The center is red but the back is still golden. And in the rain wet banners will appear just cloth of gold like the Golden Company.
Think about it their words are even "Beneath the gold the Bitter Steal"
Twas a tragedy when Lord Luthor met his demise in such a fashion. The gods would surely piss themselves with merriment if the same should befall his heir.
There's another UA-cam channel analyzing this sample chapter, but nobody does it like Preston!
Sybille Stahl what channel?
Ok, it might be Arienne 1, I could be wrong. And I don't want to mention any names......but the initials are OotGH.....don't like to say too much because I have run afoul of them by saying a theory of theirs was farfetched, and they got kinda nasty. Not at all like Preston who says, "I'm probably wrong about half of this."
Sybille Stahl same thing happened to me. Theyve had a couple good theories but most of them are pretty dumb anyways. Not near is good, knowledgeable and thorough as Preston
Preston you are magical
Hello Preston, im little bit confused about your calculation of Tyrell force. While i agree that 50 000 is propably Tyrell strength, we still have to consider Stormlands forces that are propably under Mace Tyrell command. Lady Mertyns told Arianne that her sons are still off at war and Weeping Town could afford only 50 men, so Stormlands army is not back home and they are with someone. We can dismiss Garlan as his part of host was to be demobilised in Reach and it is unlikely that they are all with Randyll Tarly. Yes, it was mentioned that he has soldiers from Stormlands, yet with 50 000 of Tyrells, Stormlands had 30 000 in Renly's Bitterbridge camp. Loses during Duskendale battle was reported both "heavy" (by Varys) and less than thousand (by Brienne) and Tarly had also knights from the Reach and foot from Westerlands. We cant also put the blame on Stannis loses as he lost only "several thousand" and 666 (xD) knights and lords. Mace can still have 30 000-40 000 troops counting 10 000 cavalry (of initial 20 000 both stormlands and reach in Renly's camp) during Battle of Steel.
I think you're right. There were definitely Stormland forces under the command of Randle Tarly. 20,000 is really the bare minimum number. Even in a best case scenario, JonCon is outnumbered 2:1. But, you're right, it could be as high as 4:1.
I was wondering if stormlands knights could be big factor in case of switching sides to Aegon. Afterall it would fit their arc well, as they served both Renly, Stannis and Lannisters.
The attack on Storm's End may be a feint, one needs to remember that the only reason Jon Con suggests an assault on Storm's End is for symbolic purposes, & he says he intends to win it by guile. There's no strategic value in attacking Storm's End when the objective is Kings Landing ultimately, & it is even suggested to Jon Con that this is counter productive because Stannis is also fighting the Lannisters-Tyrells. My suspicion is that it's a feint & that there will be hardly a fight at all, the real objective of Jon Con is actually Dragonstone. Dragonstone has far more symbolic value at the seat of House Targeryen & it is not far from Kings Landing, a good base from which to operate & defend being surrounded by sea & easy to launch incursions towards Kings Landing. That's just my feeling on the matter, the Tyrells are going to be tricked & they are going to suffer for it, meanwhile Paxter Redwyne is about to have his fleet destroyed by krakens that Euron Greyjoy is summoning from the deep. So the Reach is about to be invaded by Ironmen, the Rivelands possibly attacked from the Vale by Littlefinger's machiniations, & Kings Landing will be captured by the Golden Company in alliance with Dorne. This is why Arrianne is on a ship, I think she's going to Dragonstone.
Preston Jacobs just asking why you try to find parallels between different events happening at the same time? Just curious
It's about predicting the future. If the parallel story does something, we can perhaps expect it in the original.
Preston Jacobs thanks. Btw your videos are amazing. Keep up the good work. Can't wait for the Varys Plan videos 😉
Why is Daemon Sand named Daemon? Isn't that a targaeryan/valyrian name?
Apex Devil there are people with targ or valyrian names everywhere. One of the Freys is named Rhaegar.
12:48 in davos 2 clash of kings stannis told Davos that bitterbridge has 60,000 a foot this not the forces that bend the to him and the Calvary loras is in charge of
In case of world war 3 which is very likely we should make preston the defense minister
King Bartu
Dont worry. Hillary lost.
+Szeth Vallano Well, yeah but the Orange in Chief is constantly insulting North Korea threatening war...
He already is a company... well, a government man. It's not too far from that.
+Joven He's not starting anything but he isn't exactly helping either, he's just escalating an already tense situation even further...
Joven Christopher
No "nukes" have flown over Japan, Missiles have though. Although their "Dear Leader" just threatened to do so. If he does you'll know it because our "Dear Leader" will have to show everyone around the world that when he draws a "red line" that he won't let his opponent cross it without consequences. It was dangerous and stupid when Obama did it in Syria and it's stupid and dangerous now, except now we're talking thermonuclear weapons... What could possibly go wrong?
AND WE ARE BACK
Doran's reasoning by sending Arianne may be to declare war on the hostage takers.
Seeing her as 30.000 spears for the taking may prove to be a mistake. And cause 30.000 to march on them.
I do not believe Doran would do the same thing twice..as to fight for the safety of the children (like with Arys)
I think he's ready to sacrifice everything. And use everyone.
Talk about ruthlessness..but he IS sending his heirs into the fire.
Which i still can't reason out why..they aren't good for anything special, despite what they are.
But how could joncon have anticipated a high status person like arianne coming? As you said it doesn’t make sense for doran to send her so he shouldn’t be basing his siege on that right? It does seem like he has a plan for her but I don’t see how considering there’s no way he would have known about her arrival previously right? Unless this was all planned in like 11 days
Thank you so muchh, Ser! It's perfect!
Lest we forget the greyscale either…. ☹️
16:30 forgive my childishness 🤣🤣🤣
i think have a telepathic connection to preston jacobs. i just knew i had to click on his channel, even before my notification popped up
I doubt I'd have gotten a 1/10th of the information Preston gleaned from these two Arianne chapters. To me, they were the most boring of the released chapters though that may be due to not being a fan of Arianne's thought process. Still, watching these videos may make the reread better as I now can concentrate on location of forces and what people are saying to Arianne instead of what she thinks she hears.
Shame Mercy wasn't next, however there's more information about Westeros in Alayne's chapter.
Yes!
Right as i am trying to study this video shows up, well i guess i'm going to fail :) Worth it
Good stuff. This was a fasinating journey. It kinda sucks that Preston doesn't read his comments
Good video! Your analysis is usually done well and today is one of those days 👌🏾
Mercy chapter???
They took Tarth? Is Brienne's dad okay?
Tyrells did have storms end ...it was when the castle was under renly it was essentially under Tyrells
Oh that's a clever observation. Either through Loras or Margery highgarden had its influence.
so jon connington vs red ron connington? won't that be kinslaying?
I am so exited for Alayne
I think your wrong about red ronnet leading the tyrell calvary when he was in king's landing no one trusted him so why would mace give him a quarter of current forces it doesn't make sense it would most likely be Randall tarly in command of the calvary like he has been since Robert's rebellion
First I like, then I watch :)
Any updates on your book?
The_Owl it's gonna be released when it's finished .Preston Jacobs is not your bitch
What happened to the podcasts? I miss your sessions with Haunter!
If the four battles are in the beginning of the book, what the hell is the Climax gonna be?
ah right an hour before my birthday!