Is a Mountain West and PAC-12 Merger Inevitable? - PAC-12 and Mountain West Update
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- Опубліковано 10 чер 2024
- The Big Mountain discusses the conversation that Canzano and Wilner had regarding the PAC-2 and the potential merger with the Mountain West Conference.
A special thanks for Canzano and Wilner for their continued coverage on the PAC!
The Big Mountain is your trusted place for information and analysis on Conference Expansion and Realignment, the PAC-12, FSU vs. the ACC, as well as betting the Big 10 and Mountain West college football conferences.
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As a Coug fan I've been accepting of it for a while partly bc of you guys, but I'm also just a very realistic person and I don't like to get my hopes up. It's always fun to theorize and craft up a new rebuilt PAC 12, but whenever I see those on twitter I just sigh and shake my head bc it just doesn't make any sense. Unless some new rebuilt PAC 12 is able to get significantly more media rights money than the other G5 conferences (which is highly unlikely) schools aren't going to leave their current conferences. I think the PAC 2 will take all of the two years they can and wait for a hail mary invite from the ACC which is respectable because it would be great if the schools didn't have to drastically cut their athletic budgets. But I think the ACC will probably add USF, UCONN, and maybe even SDSU before adding OSU or WSU. Relegation has been painful but I'm content with being in the MW or whatever name they use.
100% agree with you. I understand your feelings on relegation. As a Boise St fan, I've been hoping for a Power bid for years and after the last big re-alignment shift left Boise State out, I became content that ship has sailed. A conference championship and a decent bowl bid are okay with me. One thing I don't like is that the G5 has become a farm system for the Power teams. G5 recruits will play one, maybe two years, then be cherry picked by bigger schools.
As a UW Husky, I am blaming the UW President Ana Mari Cauce for the demise of the remains of the PAC12. There was definitely hope trying to save the PAC12 after USC and UCLA leaving for the B1G conference. But for the WSU Cougars, I basically blame WSU President Kirk Schultz, he kept talking "Oh, everything will be fine", well it wasn't fine. The other schools were busy working on a Plan B if the PAC12 conference fell apart if Former PAC12 Commissioner Kliavkoff couldn't get a TV deal. Then when the TV deal was presented, the schools balked and left leaving WSU and Ore. St. on the outside for a new conference. But otherwise, feel sorry for you guys, if WSU and Ore. St. could hold on for a good 3-5 years when the previous TV deals come up for renewal. Then that is when WSU and Ore. St. might be able to get into a P4 Conference, maybe the BIG 12...
You should invite Canzano and or Wilmer on your show.
The PAC West has a nice ring to it.
MW fans being on guard seems like an understatement. I'm all for the merger and staying out West as a Coug fan for decades and well before the big P5 $$$. So let's use this opportunity to shut out the others though while elevating the teams that would be in the new conference. I don't want conference games in TX, WV, FL, etc. The MW has been underrated and the best group of 5 conference the last few years. The NCAA needs to recognize that. The next couple years in college football will be a bunch of moving parts! As you have done a great job covering it!
As a Beaver Believer, it may be wise to merge both conferences. Both sides needs to keep pride aside.
The thing is the PAC2 don't need to act immediately, rather just wait and see. The ACC legal issues is something to really watch and to me is going to be the end of the final vestiges of College Sports. When the ACC falls, it's going to be chaos between schools being selected by the SEC/Big10 and the Big12, and then schools in the same position as the PAC2.
To me the best solution that the PAC2 can do is build on what they have, and truly make a great Group of 5 product. I mean the Group of 5 is being left in the dust and why not just combine the PAC2, AAC, SBC, MW, WCC, and Big East (maybe a few other strong Basketball Conferences as well) in to 1 large Group of 5 conference with regional divisions. Then working with the CW, Apple, and Amazon putting to use the PAC12 Network studios to create a central broadcast for all televised games and distribute onto those said platforms.
I was wondering that if the Mountain West does indeed become part of the Pac-12, are you going to change the name of the podcast?
No way Jose.
I see the conference changing their name to the Big Mountain.
Well, then we would be well ahead of the curve!
Hell No! -TBM Steve
@@TheBigMountainPodcast what your thoughts on mid major super conference funded by private equity.
I think that Washington State and Oregon State should be in a power conference instead of being downgraded to a G level conference by TV networks. This is why I don’t have Cable TV anymore. I refuse to give Fox and ESPN anymore money. Greed will ultimate be the downfall of college football.
OSU/WSU are going to have to accept the fact that a merger/reverse merger is inevitable. Two P5 teams joining the MW will undoubtably relegate them down to G5 status. If they could somehow get the cream of the crop from the MW to join them, Boise State, Fresno State, SDSU, Colorado St, UNLV, and add a couple quality Texas teams they might have a very slim chance of maintaining/rebuilding Power status, but even so, not likely. Unfortunately, Gloria Nevarez has built in clauses protecting the MW conference from poaching with huge exit fees so the All or Nothing merger is the most likely outcome.
Unless they wait till 2026 when the MW TV contract expires and allows for schools to leave without penalties.
The entitlement attitude of OSU & WSU is an example of why the PAC fell apart. They think they are too good for the MW and should be in a Power Conference. It is just like Cal & Stanford thinking they are too good for the Big XII and should be in the Big 10. Guess what? If they were as good as they think they are, they would be where they want to be.
@@davidbrown386 I don’t disagree with your position, I believe that WSU and OSU are still going to try and position themselves to make the most amount of money possible in a modified PAC (new conference) with the best of the remaining G5. I believe this presents the opportunity for them to make the most money available and that will be more money than just a reverse merger with all the MW.
@@davidbrown386 entitlement?🤣🤣🤣OSU and WSU are the blue collar of academics and sports on the west coast if you will indulge me that analogy.
@@DayOneRobThey have to begin negotiating their new TV deal (with whomever...... ESPN, Fox, NBC, Netflix, Amazon) by Spring / early Summer 2025. These networks are going to want to know who's in & who's out & what markets are involved when the negotiations begin especially if other schools may be added like UTSA or Tulsa & the college football playoff will have a new contract & most likely expand to 14 teams in 2026 (only 12 for '24 & '25) & all the bowl game contracts & associations will be changing for 2026 so there will be A LOT to figure out in the next 12 months.
By Labor Day 2025, we'll know what teams are going where, etc for the 2026 season.
Good show. I love Canzano, but yes he is a bit of a homer for the PAC. Mr. Wilner is more objective writer. & understand why JY is getting bent, but be patient JY, OSU & WSU are trying to keep the fans & doners engaged with the talk of refusal that they have been relegated. It is possible that the B12/ACC will be a savior, but it's not likely. I too wish it would all just settle down, but that isn't likely either. I don't know for certain that the PAC might poach some teams, or a merger would happen. I think a selective poaching & rebuild would garner a slightly higher medial deal though.
Personally I would not like to see any MWC teams get left behind because as an OSU fan I know how it feels. Patients & time folks.
Agreed, it was a good show.
If I'm being perfectly honest, since USC/UCLA left, I don't think there were any major media people who were more wrong than Wilner and Canzano. Most of their inside information came from NW (esp Schultz, chairman of P12 board of directors) and Bay Area schools, so they were constantly wrong from being fed misinformation from the Pac trying to survive.
The new PAC:
OSU/WSU
All 11 MW full members
Hawai'i
Gonzaga/St. Mary's
16 full members....14 for FB
Most likely scenario.
Hawaii is playing in a HS Stadium. If they cannot get their new Stadium approved, then dissolve the MW and leave Hawaii behind.
My opinion is that it will happen eventually, and its going to be a 'quiet' reverse merger. Thanks guys for your honest opinion on these issues, what a mess still. - Maybe you ought to talk about the upcoming College Post Football Bowl Season. This blows me away, because of the agreements. The 'departed' PAC12 schools (Arizona, ASU, Cal, Colorado, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Utah, Washington) are still eligible for the PAC12 post-season bowls. Then hearing and seeing rumors that if the ACC blows up, Stanford and Cal. might get an invite to the B1G conference over the BIG12 and PAC rebuild.
Interesting stuff on the CFP.
We might discuss this in the future.
You will probably like our CFB 2030 episode that will drop on Thursday.
We talk about and break down all the conferences by the end of the decade.
UCLA having to pay Cal for leaving the PAC 12 has set a precedent. I do not see the Cal state schools being split up or the departing schools will have to pay the one left behind. I think Fresno, SJSU, and SDSU are a package deal
Good point. Not sure Newsom and his cronies care about the lesser State schools like they did about the UC schools. Also, there won't be much additional money for any schools that leave.
I agree that Hawaii participating in football only doesn’t add value particularly without a large capacity stadium to hold for the Hawaii Bowl.
Yep. But hard to ditch them at this point.
My heart says rebuild the Pac 12. My gut says who would join and why. My head says a rebuild makes no sense. My optimism is we get an invite to the Big 12 or 10 or ACC then i am led back my gut and my head. The Cougs and Beavs are in a bad spot, but I am also in a good spot because I will save $100 a month by canceling sports channels.
Maybe the ACC to build a West Coast division, but the Big 12 will go after UNLV & San Diego State first if not ACC schools like Georgia Tech, NC State, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, etc (if/when FSU, Clemson, UNC, etc leave)
WSU & OSU have ZERO change of ever joining the Big 10. That conference is going after Notre Dame & ACC (maybe Big 12 schools).
If the Big 12 loses schools, they may purge the best of the ACC, MWC & AAC)
This is all about powerful brands & big media markets. OSU & WSU have neither.
The best chance is to take the best of the MWC & schools like UTSA, Tulane, etc & try to be a kinda sorta Diet P5ish school.
I live in Oregon, and am a fan of the Ducks. I didn't want to go to the B1G, but it was the only way to save ourselves. I hate what is happening. It's not really conference expansion, but "consolidation". It happens in business all the time, and when college football became openly about media money and nothing else, what is happening now is inevitable. I feel bad for fans of the Beavers and Cougars. They are just as passionate and care for their teams just as you do yours. I watch your podcast because you 2 have very rational takes. I will say you guys absolutely nailed it with the "relegation" and "poaching". 💯
Appreciate your comment.
Totally passionate, like all TRUE fans. Can’t fault that at all.
The “click bait” wording is unnecessary, but speaks to the emotions and passion.
@@TheBigMountainPodcast I really appreciate your response and love your podcast. But I never ever said you used "clickbait". You guys must have meant that for someone else.
Sorry.
Meant that for other pasta and pods that try and be “salacious” using the relegation and poaching wording.
Not a comment for you. Sorry for the confusion.
I think a merger between the MWC and OSU/WSU is inevitable. OSU/WSU are hoping for an ACC invite that may not come. The only other option would be for OSU/WSU to join the American for football only (similar to Army and Navy) and keep the other sports in the WCC.
Would joining the American be an upgrade from the MW?
@@billl1127 I think so. And if the American pulled in couple MW teams when the media contract is up (Boise, UNLV, Air Force, SDSU) the American would be even stronger as a national conference.
Fun one!
Follow the money. The money says the Pac2 would be giving up if they merged with the Mountain West, the financial drop-off is too severe. The money says Oregon State and Washington State will rebuild the Pac, with the best G5 teams they can scrape together. The MWC TV deal is around 5M a year per team, and playoff invites are highly unlikely. The AAC TV deal is around 10M a year, with slightly better playoff odds. A rebuild Pac with the best G5 teams could maybe pull in 15M a year, plus have a good chance at the G5 automatic bid almost every year.
Who has the bigger fan base and resources PAC12 or Mountain West?
Hey, these squads have a better chance to make the playoff than, for example, Tennessee
Rebranded as PAC-West
If I was a school in the Mountain West I prefer to join the PAC 12. Let be honest do you want to play under Mountain West or PAC brand. It no different from schools in American joining the ACC.
I suggest they get rid of the Pac and the MW name. Create a new name and start a new legacy. Otherwise people will continue to compare the old Pac with the new which will never stack up.
Oregon State and Washington State have to continue the Pac-12. They don't want to have to pay back all that money the 10 departing schools paid them. If the Pac-12 is gone before the summer of 2027, they have to pay back all that money. The only other option is possibly getting a full membership into the ACC or the Big 12. And that is looking less likely by the minute.
I know OSU & WSU do not want to be “Relegated” but they might have no better option then joining with the Mountain West. They are not getting in the Big XII, and the ACC is unlikely. I even wonder if the ACC might decide SDSU would be a better option due to location, TV market and academics?
Who says they "have to" continue the Pac-12? If they can't line up and find enough schools willing to join a rebuilt Pac-12, then guess what? It's over for OrSU and Wazzu. At that point, they'll have no other choice but to join the Mountain West as full-time members. The B1G and SEC obviously won't take them. If the Big XII wanted them, they would have taken the Beavs and Cougs already. As for the ACC, don't get me started with that Clown Show. It's more likely Stanford and Cal tuck tail and leave the ACC after a few years than OrSU and Wazzu ever getting invited to the ACC.
Such a shame what has happen to PAC12.
It really blows that NONE OF THIS will have any sort of resolution until late 2025 or early 2026 when Florida State & Clemson leave the ACC. All this other talk will keep circling the drain for months on end until whichever Conference: the SEC, the BIG 10 or the Big 12 takes them in.
I’ll be extremely surprised if California & Stanford stay past 2030; it makes NO SENSE once Florida State & Clemson leaves the ACC to do so since they’ll be the strongest schools there unless there’s like an additional no defect terminology along with the buyout in their agreements to join.
I’ve seen a rumor of the Pac inviting Tulane, the service academies, and four other MWC schools. Every reason to be skeptical… but of available options, that’s one I could see that actually increases media payouts for the MWC schools involved.
I don’t see media increasing New Mexico’s payout in a straight merger.
The only question is whether the pay increase would match the travel cost increase. Which… shrug.
Meanwhile… you’re never going to have full acceptance from OSU and WSU. They might accept the merger, but…
No one is leaving the AAC or SBC to join a new conference that will make less money and not be as prestigious and successful as the AAC and SBC are now. Even if has the PAC name, it is still a G5/6 conference that will not be more prestigious than either of the top two conferences in the G5 currently in AAC & SBC.
@@michaelwall3393 One warning: a school in an actual “prestige” conference has sort of trademarked the word “the.”
If you’re not P2, forget prestige. You’re not being paid enough to use the word.
Tell Canzano "Mountain West is open for business"
💯
The only real asset the MW can offer is proximity.
Yes. But regionality is very important to the remaining PAC-12.
There will be a Pac 12 conference. The question is will there be a Mt West conference? The PAC 2 doesn’t want all of the MWC schools. They will take the pick of the litter, whether that’s 4 or 6 mwc schools, then get Rice and Tulane and 2 other schools in the Texas area
My prediction for the new PAC-12 and 12 is just the brand name, not the number of teams in the conference
WSU
OSU
SDSU
Air Force
Colorado St
UNLV
Boise
Fresno
Tulane
Rice
UTSA
Tulsa
New MWC
SJSU
Nevada
Wyoming
UNM
USU
Hawaii
UTEP
New Mexico St
Cal Baptist as the 12 Olympic sports schools. Since Hawaii is football only!
Now the $5M question
Would the Montanas move to FBS?
Tarleton has made their FBS dreams well known. I would only add them if there was another Texas school! Texas St?
No one from AAC is joining the Mountain Worst Conference or some half-ass built PAC for more travel and trouble and less money
I was listening to That College Football Guy channel. If Mountain West lost six schools to PAC they would have to backfill. They have been in contact with up to 10 schools
I like it and wish it would happen. I just don't think the MW splits up.
The better ( and simpler) solution is take the entire MW except Hawaii and maybe Nevada Reno, and add UTSA and either UTEP or North Texas.
@@davidbrown386 that’s not happening
Any which way you call it OSU and WSU have been relegate down a notch. How do you explain of the rest of the PAC 10 leaving them? OSU and WSU are optimistically waiting at least a couple years for a “Hail Mary” to get them into the Power Conference. Otherwise, welcome to the MW.
Nothing like being relegated to a below average conference
Is it not an unconscionable contract to ask the PAC-12 to pay poaching money to grab 4 MWC teams - especially if those teams refuse to sign on to a new MWC TV deal and want to leave the conference?
Further, will it really be proper and legal to hold those 4 MWC hostage and also threaten to lower the boom on the PAC-12 if it dares to "meddle."
Isn't it un-American to stop the PAC-12 from competing with other conferences to grab some MWC?
If Gloria and her MWC cannot stop other conferences from poaching some MWC, but is relying on a piece of paper to keep out the PAC from fair competition to grab some programs out of MWC, doesn't that make the non-poaching clause in the agreement or contract the PAC signed invalid? I happen to think that if the poaching door is open to other conferences, then there should be equal access granted to all conferences.
If FSU (and a few other programs) wins its lawsuit to exit the ACC without sanctions, what should stop the union of the PAC-12 and those MWC going to fruition without financial sanctions?
Equal access could be the case, but no other conference extended an olive branch for a scheduling agreement.
Bend it too far, and it will break.
And regionality is important for the decision makers, no matter what talking heads say.
OSU and WSU have to appease their fan bases by appearing to fight for the Pac 12, but we all know it's just a matter of time before they're in the Mountain West. The only other viable possibility is hoping they get picked up by the Big 12 after the ACC implodes.
I see a merger, but not joining the MWC. They will lose the assets they gained in the lawsuit.
So, would this be the Pac-12? Mountain Pac? Pac West?
Is the Pac2 brand valuable anymore? It's associated with incompetence and arrogance.
Agree. In fact it may be better to shelf the name. People will always be comparing the new with the old. Let the new conference create their own legacy.
Canzano and Wilner very much were Pac-12 mouthpieces. That’s why I ragged on them so much the last year plus. Between the 2, Wilner is more credible and is more accepting of what’s happening.
The walls are closing in on the Pac-2. They have to have a conference by 2026 or lose the $65M. Navarez was smart to push the MWC penalties past the GOR and the Pac-2 deadline. That way they can’t just wait until 2026 and steal teams for free. That’s taking care of the lower teams.
I listen to people that have shown they have good info
about what goes on in college sports front office type
decisions like realignment. There aren’t many. Most
people talk off the top of their heads or believe
dumb stuff. I believe Brett McMurphy knows what he’s talking about when he says stuff. It’s hard for many people to listen to Flugaur because he takes
a while to make his points and his stories move slow, but that’s truly how realignment goes. I combine what I hear with research I do and logically what’s probably going to happen. I said that to preface your topics.
Hawaii- They’re not the least desirable school in the MWC. They’re the top team in the state and that creates more market value than some teams. When push comes to shove, teams would also rather play here than some places and it’s also OK for recruiting. Saying all that, it’s easier to leave a football only team behind. The travel is harder.
Air Force- There have been rumors about Air Force going east in the past and it didn’t happen. Air Force was considered for the Big 12 in 2016. They were one of the 8 teams that left the WAC to form the MWC. They’re one of the 6 teams Flugaur has on the stage to join the Pac-2. The Pac-2 has to have an 8 team conference to stay a recognized conference and not lose NCAA Tournament shares money. The buzz is 8 west teams will combine with AAC teams. Army and Navy are in the mix to come west. Air Force isn’t going east. The service academies bring value not mainly because of alumni, but all those who served in their branches and people across the nation rooting for them. That’s why they have TV contracts to play on CBS and CBS Sports Network.
Most decisions are made to drive more revenue. The buzz I hear is taking some MWC teams drives more money than taking all of them. The AAC has some value, but the best of the AAC has already joined P4. One region sounds good and is great for travel, but the recent movement in P4 shows you need to be more national and that opens up all 4 TV windows.
Big 12- They don’t want Wazzu and Oregon State. Both teams wanted to join last year. Yormark wants to go east. He got Cincy and UCF for WVU, but they’re going to take more. They’re waiting for the ACC to break up. Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, and Georgia Tech would be wanted more. I can’t tell you whether the Big 12 wanted Calford or not. All I know is Calford wanted no part of the Big 12!
ACC- They don’t want the Pac-2. They took 2 teams and preferred SMU to the Pac-2. The Pac-2 could be in play if the ACC gets poached, but my prediction is there is so much chaos that they don’t join.
Someone asked me a few weeks back how I thought it would all play out. This is what I felt would eventually happen over numerous years:
FSU and Clemson to Big 10. That’s 20. It’s who they can get now and not exactly what they want most.
UNC and UVA to the SEC, but they have to bring NC State and VT. That’s 20.
ND and Miami to the Big 10. Miami will have things in order now and the Irish will finally react to the closing walls. That’s 22.
Sankey wants SEC basketball to be great. He’ll go for the jugular and take Duke and Kansas to get to 22.
I’m sure it will come at a discount, but I’m going to say Calford to the Big 10. USC wanted Stanford before. The Big 10 has had some interest in Colorado and Utah, but I’m going to say they take the Bay Area where they have many alumni. That’s 24.
This is where the Big 12 eats. They take Louisville, Georgia Tech, Pitt, and Syracuse to get back to 19. They will add 1 more team. I think they’ll take SMU over the Pac-2, ACC 2, and G5.
Wake and BC will have to form up with AAC teams.
The MWC leftovers will probably form up with UTEP and New Mexico State and possibly some other Texas teams and adjoining states.
The Pac-2 will still have to form up with the MWC teams they like and the best of the rest. They’ll end up being the #4 conference, but a distant 4th that’s far behind the Big 12, but ahead of the others.
The handwriting has been on the walls for years. Every so often various people have put out rankings of brand values and who would be most wanted in realignment. Every survey had Big 10 and SEC teams at the top. The Big 12 was vulnerable almost since it was created and they still let Texas bleed them dry until they left. They didn’t plan for losing all their best brands. The Pac-12 didn’t plan for losing their 4 most valuable teams. They let USC shut down expansion before they left. Now the ACC is going to lose their best brands to the P2, most of the rest to the Big 12, and be like the Pac-12. To a certain extent the
conferences probably couldn’t do anything, but it sure
looks like they ignored what was happening for years.
Lonny crushing it AGAIN!
Thx for this awesome rundown!
We would agree with most.
You will likely appreciate our final CFB 2030 episode we will drop Thursday.
Some common themes to what you have stated here.
I see them poaching the top MW teams Fresno State, Boise, and SDSU
i see sdsu, unlv,fresno san jose state, other mt west markets too small
@@robert5755I see them adding
Fresno
Boise
San Diego state
UNLV
CSU
Air Force
There is no PAC2. PAC12 is the name.
The Pac12 should do a reverse merger with MWC. I think a reverse has to be done so they can keep all the money. Then allow all new teams in Pac12 , if any teams were to leave pac12 for conference realignment, they can leave Olympic Sports in conference. Worse case scenario is it becomes a conference to park Olympic. sports in pac12,, which would allow teams to save money and compete with other conferences. Be realistic money talks, and if OSU,WSU gets a call to go to the BIG12 they will jump ship, the Pac12 is down. The Pac12 brand name is better than the MWC brand name. They can go after SMU, TULANE, and Memphis and other schools if they so choose to keep it a competitive football/BB. conference
Thx for your thoughts!
The problem with merging with MW or them with us is money. Oregon State got 40 million per year to run their departments and we were still in the red. There is no other way to paint it, OSU and WSU were the Wake Forests and BC of the PAC 12 in terms of eyeballs.