The Doomberg Episode: Separating Fact from Fiction
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- Опубліковано 26 вер 2023
- The head of the Doomberg team, maestros at deciphering the complex symphony of the financial world is our guest. The Doomberg team are well-known for their uncanny ability to recognize patterns before they emerge and connect the dots between topics you'd never think related. They've mastered the art of making the intricate realms of finance accessible. They have become, by far, the most popular Substack. Doomberg join us for a deep, deep dive into their most recent market insights, highlighting the less-than-obvious dualities, contradictions, impacts, and connections in the realm of financial markets.
Timestamped Highlights:
[00:02:07] Doomberg, a small team with experience in the commodity sector launched Doomberg in 2021, now the most subscribed Substack, after pivoting from a consulting firm due to COVID-19. They now research and write 7 to 8 pieces a month with no strict deadlines.
[00:08:37] A framework for assessing scientific breakthroughs, focusing e.g. on a claimed room temperature superconductor. It emphasizes the importance of considering the credibility of those involved, where the research is published, the scientific process, the context of previous claims, and what to expect next. Ultimately, the text expresses deep skepticism and the need for more evidence.
[00:19:37] The potential benefits of a technical singularity, including advancements in grid rewiring, quantum computing, and high-tech electronics. It highlights the difficulty in predicting the specific inventions that could arise and the significant impact it would have.
[00:24:59] Doomberg discusses the relationship between energy, order, and standard of living. He argues that higher energy density leads to economic prosperity and that restrictions on fossil fuel consumption merely shift the privilege. The global south's consumption of fossil fuels is seen as predictable and sustainable within the author's framework.
[00:30:36] The progressive environmental left opposes nuclear power and carbon capture for reasons related to their desire for fewer humans (Malthusians) and resource conservation. They want less energy and advocate for intermittent renewables. Their intentions are not about carbon emissions.
[00:39:29] In periods of energy abundance, currencies are influenced by manufacturing performance and value-added capabilities. In energy scarcity, energy becomes the key resource, affecting currency strength. During shortages, energy producers profit from price increases. The understanding of energy's significance reveals the less relevance of currency fluctuations. A mild winter in 2022 shifted to energy abundance, causing coal, natural gas, and oil prices to drop, impacting currencies. Russia's currency weakens during surplus energy periods. Energy positioning explains most currency moves during scarcity, but not during abundance. Currency serves as a means to store, transport, and utilize energy.
[00:45:21] Ontario's Green Energy Act caused government waste and enriched insiders, costing taxpayers billions. In 2018, the ruling liberal party was ousted, and the act was revoked. Ontario now focuses on nuclear energy.
[00:52:29] Canada, UAE, and Japan are embracing nuclear power, while most of Europe except Germany is realizing its importance. Pain and political change are necessary for progress.
[01:00:06] Traditional media outlets claim both that drought relief disproves climate change and that climate volatility is the cause.
[01:04:11] The story of Tulare Lake. A California tribe's devastated loss when their lake was drained by dams and diversions, is now seen as a climate crisis causing flooding. The reclaimed lake is viewed as both a salvation and a food growing paradise lost due to climate change.
[01:08:16] The book "The New Dealers War" is recommended and highlights China's dominance in key industries and the need for caution in foreign engagements.
[01:14:26] The US lacks knowledge, China controls Tellurium supply in solar industry.
[01:20:00] Focus on leadership at home, support US prosperity, influence policy, cautious about China, not worried about physical safety. US political system intact despite partisan bickering.
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Where to find Doomberg:
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Doomberg - Substack - doomberg.substack.com/
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Where to find the Raise Your Average crew:
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ReSolve Asset Management - investresolve.com/
ReSolve Asset Management Blog - investresolve.com/blog/
Mike Philbrick on Linkedin - / michaelphilbrick
Rodrigo Gordillo on Linkedin - / rodrigogordillo
Adam Butler on Linkedin - / adamdbutler
Pierre Daillie on Linkedin - / pierre-daillie-advisor...
Joseph Lamanna on Linkedin - / josephlamanna
AdvisorAnalyst.com - advisoranalyst.com
Art Berman makes an excellent argument on Nate Hagan's The Great simplification....
That WE are basically wedded to oil, for the foreseeable future.
Thank you for uploading and sharing.
I love how Doomberg is so blunt in calling out the malthusians in their semi-successful attack against the human population.
The 4th turning will once again fix this growing insanity as another generation of builders replaces the aging generation of prophets. Hopefully they don’t do as much damage before they’re replaced this time around.
It could be a hidden advantage that we can’t build solar panels without Chinese Tellurium, seeing as how it would prevent a lot of wasteful and damaging spending before we finally get back to spending on real large-scale energy solutions such as oil, gas, and nuclear.
All of which are non renewable. What then?
Precisely! MMT craziness was only possible during a period of energy abundance. Eventually, you run out of other people's energy.
Exactly
Mmt was never gonna work.
The problem is the government rewards loyalty instead of competence.
The people who were shilling for mmt had no idea about what the hell they were talking about. They have no idea about even basic economics.
Ooohhh....I am gonna steal that one.
I'd be more confident of the future if there were a cadre of social activists communicating with one another. 😮
Climate whip lash = Recent Tonga eruption that blasted unprecedented amount of water into the stratosphere. One of the great under water volcanos of all time. Has helped California with water and Europe do too worldwide temperature drop.
Hicks dome in bound...Last day of Fall...
In the actual ecology of living organisms, the ants, aphids and ladybirds is a lesson in monoculture and letting natural systems operate.
And the self domestication of the human predator-prey behavioural spectrum is another such story, but the nasty problem of destruction from within, autoimmune disease, when the core of defence stops working for the common good and goes feral, psychopathology requires Sociopath ability to correct the balance, that is why Democracy is diverse and resilient?
most sympathetic to this sort of analysis - but a little unsound when attributing the motives of environmental activists. The activists are, odiously somewhat narcissistic, but Its all really a bit more complex than Doomberg and Co allow. And harder. imo
Very authoritative judgements?
Of course you will be right to denounce amateurs and the remote probability of success by luck, but if the "accidental" release was a stratigm of slightly better educated experimenters to share with others who may have better resources, the processes known to researchers of Quantum Computational Logic could be looking for those with skills in crystallisation and annealing of conductors at low-high temperatures as is done for Semiconductors.., I don't know but a great many people will try it out.
Agreed, you should not advise anyone to put money on it, especially while big bang creation denial of evidence is rampant and is committed to brain freezing.
So because e-Pi-i is the actual cause-effect Phenomenon of Absolute Truth, the most hyperfluid slipperyest fact of existence, uncertainty rules and laws have to be arranged in accordance with general acceptance, agreement would be better but policing is always necessary..
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The most amazing thing is that you guys can get away with selling ordinary common sense to corporate executives.
I'm just an ordinary old coot (74) with an ISP, a router, and a tablet, and I knew immediately that this was bullshit.
Room temperature superconductivity will come at the same time as cold fusion, which is just 5 years away, and has been for 70 years! 💩💩💩
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