@@ConvectiveChroniclesI would not be surprised if they got another big one within the next 10 years, although May seems to perform well below average lately when the tornado threat shifts westwards
As a child, I studied weather with extreme curiosity. Decades later, I am still learning about weather with the same extreme curiosity. Thank you to folks like you for posting this content.
Just shows how perfect things need to be for these monsters to be created but at the same time can never let your guard down in times when it doesnt seem likely. Crazy to think about. Great video as always!!
When “all it takes is one storm” is taken into a meaning both in the meteorology of what happened when the small storm cell merged with the large cell making the shear go nuts and how that storm was the only storm that had a drastic impact on people’s lives that day
2 events I'd love to see you cover: The 1974 Super Outbreak (particularly why there was such a wide swath of violent tornadoes), and the August 24, 2016 tornado outbreak in the southern Great Lakes region (especially considering how unexpected it was).
I remember that day in 2016. Was watching the radar out of Detroit after getting reports of tornadoes near Toledo, Ohio - then the action moved into Windsor, Ontario. Had to phone a friend, whose family lived near Windsor to tell her about the potential tornado, as Environment Canada didn't issue a Tornado Warning until after the tornado (EF2) had lifted!
Excellent video Trey! I saw the same kind of failed occlusion process with the Yuma, CO tornado. The original tornado vortex occluded and began to shift north, but then another vortex appeared and you could see that second vortex take over as the main one as the RFD wrapped the wall cloud around it. Very interesting stuff!
Thank you! Yeah, I’ve seen a lot of cases with failed occlusions. Would love to know more about why the occlusion process can fail sometimes but other times it’s successful.
You have greatly increased my knowledge and understanding on what to look for in these storms. You are damn good at what you do! I’ve learned so much on forecasting and chasing in a very short period of time. Wish I would of found this channel sooner 😂. I really like to take deep dives into topics and learn everything about a certain event. 5 f**king stars man 👏🏼
Another amazing video as usual. Easier to digest every time, and very exact in defining things for those who might not understand! Thank you for putting so much hard work into these analysis videos, and I look forward to seeing more in the future!
Just an incredible video, Trey! There's so much I could dive into but I'll hit a couple key bullet points and still create a wall of text. Love talking weather! 1. Thank you for leaving this video out of the social media discourse. I know you sometimes very briefly touch on it in forecast videos when social media gets crazy about big events, but in a case study, there's no place to talk about the group of people begging for an EF-5 again. You focused on the storm and the education, and I appreciate that. 2. Every time I watch one of your videos now that I'm "caught up", I'm looking forward to the one new thing to learn every video. In this one, you really brought the heat! Teacher Trey was on full display, really digging into some meaty details and bringing up some concepts new to the channel. And it's never presented in "here's how smart I am I went to school for this" it's always "here's why this/these particular weird edge-case meteorological concepts provided what this tornado needed to succeed" and boy did this tornado need that deep dive. The amount of nuance that had to come together to make this storm what it was is just insane. 3. Hi-res/mobile radar data continues to be pure weather porn. The more of this we can add to the world, the better. The amount of tiny mesoscale details that can be pinpointed by these hi-res solutions is so incredibly wonderful to look at, but also so incredibly valuable from a safety perspective. In these high tornado risk areas we NEED more of these hi-res radars to really help the NWS offices know when to escalate tornado warnings and give more precision in tornado tracks and intensity 4. I feel like I've said this before, but there is no better video to highlight the fact that the synoptic scale cannot and will not ever tell the whole story. A 30 mile blob of enhanced 700mb jet streak combined with multiple smaller constructive storm mergers with a pre-existing mesocyclone turning what should be a short-lived, low-impact tornado into one of the most infamous tornadoes of a generation is everything to understanding why the synoptic scale is a fraction of the story when it comes to tornadoes. The term "perfect storm" gets thrown around a lot, but this really was the "perfect storm" of weird mesoscale features coming together to create a monster. 5. Failed occlusions are weird and I want to know more. A tornado trying to die and not being able to is simultaneously incredibly interesting and also horrifying. The worst case scenario for a tornado is when it stops moving (see: Jarrell EF5) and a failed occlusion pretty much creates that by causing the loop. I imagine work is being done, but it seems so hard to understand the details of what stops the occlusion process and puts the tornado back on its original path. There's WAY more packed into this 30 minute video, you continue to put out awesome videos, and I will continue blabbering on about weather in the comments section. Thanks so much for another great one, and looking forward to more!
Thank you so much! I was really happy with how this one turned out; I'm trying to make these more concise but still pack the same amount of info into each video. The storm certainly had the "perfect storm" of nuanced ingredients to go from a run-of-the-mill severe weather producer to a historic one. It's not often that that's the case AND we have incredible tools there to measure, it like the super-high-res PX-1000 radar only a handful of miles away. And I am with you on failed occlusions...hopefully, we get some more research on them in the future.
the way this storm and the 2011 Joplin storm were so similar and yet so rare and to have occurred just 2 years apart has always been fascinating to me. This was a great breakdown and explanation of this event. Great job and great video!
So true. The Joplin EF5 might have grown more rapidly in sheer size. Still, the Moore EF5 became super intense very quickly, almost immediately producing strong to violent damage, even during its cone and stovepipe phases, much like the F5 that occurred in 99. Horrifying events.
A lot of people have asked why the Joplin, Missouri tornado on May 22, 2011 was so much deadlier than the Moore, Oklahoma tornado on May 20, 2013 even though they were both rated as an EF-5 by the National Weather Service. It comes down to the following six key factors: 1.) The Joplin tornado formed too quickly for the National Weather Service office in Springfield, Missouri to issue a Tornado Emergency for the city of Joplin even though they had issued a Tornado Warning for both Jasper County and Newton County. 2.) The tornado formed right outside of Joplin, cut through the city and dissipated upon leaving it. 3.) Prior to May 22, 2011; Joplin had not been hit by a significant tornado since May 5, 1971. As a result the residents of Joplin, Missouri assumed that the mountainous and hilly terrain of southwestern Missouri functioned as a natural shield from tornadoes as southwestern Missouri is home to the Ozarks. 4.) Many residents of Joplin ignored the tornado warnings when they were first issued due to being desensitized from the city issuing too many false alarms. 5.) When the tornado sirens in Joplin were first sounded at 5:17 PM Central Time it gave the residents of Joplin a woefully insufficient amount of seventeen minutes to take shelter. By the time the tornado sirens began to sound a second time at 5:34 PM it was too late to do anything because the tornado was already on the ground and moving through the city. 6.) By far the biggest contributing factor is that the Joplin tornado was hidden by heavy rain and difficult to see. By comparison the residents of Moore, Oklahoma are extremely weather-wise and aware of the potential severity of a tornado as their city is practically synonymous with large, long-track, violent and destructive tornadoes. When a Tornado Watch is issued the residents of Moore become extremely vigilant and keep their eyes on the sky. As soon as a Tornado Warning is issued the residents of Moore know to stay calm in order to make smart decisions that will save their lives. They know what to do and where to go as well as who they can turn to for coverage of the weather. When the National Weather Service office in Norman, Oklahoma issued a Tornado Watch for much of central and eastern Oklahoma at 1:10 PM Central Time three of the major TV stations in Oklahoma City (NBC affiliate KFOR channel 4, ABC affiliate KOCO channel 5, and CBS affiliate KWTV Channel 9) immediately suspended regular programming and went into wall-to-wall coverage of the weather; with the city's Fox affiliate KOKH Channel 25 and Telemundo affiliate KTUZ Channel 30 doing so when the first thunderstorms erupted southwest of Oklahoma City.
The Parkersburg EF5 and the 2013 Moore EF5 are also two examples of HP supercells producing highly visible and highly photogenic tornadoes. It was a stark yet eerie/ominous example that you don't need a classic or LP supercell to have a photogenic twister.
@@ConvectiveChronicles Being an aviation enthusiast and weather nerd, is there enough scientific data surrounding the microburst crash of Delta 191 in 1985 to do a case study on and the affects it had on the weather and aviation communities?
That’s all thanks to the hard work of Broyles and company at the SPC. Really intriguing stuff, and it’s something that may influence more violent tornadoes than we think.
I love events with minor possible anomalies like this driving them. It just shows we still have a ton to learn and weather can still throw us curve balls.
Fantastic job Trey! You are getting so good at these breakdowns! Very concise, well structured, clearly communicated and thoroughly researched data present throughout. Major kudos sir. Been excited for this one for a while.
Thank you so much! I was really happy with how this one turned out; I’m trying to structure these a bit better so they’re more concise but still pack all the info into a single video.
Amazing video as usual, just a small suggestion: the video would be easier to follow if you'd show the time and location of the event in the beginning as observed so we could see where the features you point out are in relation to that. The SPC forecast is great but they're rarely that precise (in this case they were a bit off to the east for example). Similarly, knowing a map is 7 hours before storm initiation is more informative than just "12z".
I’ve been looking forward to this one. Two EF5 tornadoes in 14 years for Moore, right, and similar paths. I can’t even imagine… Were you living in the Norman area when this happened?
Not only Two cat 5 tornadoes on the Fujita and Enhanced Fujita scales respectively, but two of the most violent tornadoes ever recorded in history as well. We know how destructive May 3rd was. Hell, the EF5 category was built upon that tornado and Jarrell. However, I know people are going to rip my face off for this, but the May 20, 2013, Newcastle Moore EF5 was every bit as violent as the 4.27.2011 tornadoes (the NWS themselves think so too). This tornado produced many of the same DIs that the Phil-Campbell Hackleburg and Smithville EF5s did. Want to know 3 tornadoes that ripped out and completely shredded electrical routing and plumbing out of many foundations? Smithville, Jarrell, and this tornado, the Newcastle Moore EF5. It's a tale of just how extreme an EF5 tornado truly is and it's a sobering reminder that any strength disparity between one EF5 and another is paper thin at best.
I was coming home from work when this stopped me. I had to abandon my car and wade through the destruction. I couldn't bring myself to go near the school, but I did manage to dig several people out of the rubble. It's a day I'll never forget. Btw, my parents' house was hit by the May 3rd tornado.
@@ConvectiveChronicles It's not on my "Top Ten Days of Fun" list. I've lived in Oklahoma for many years and seen many tornados. This was the only one to scare me. (I was in Colorado for the May 3rd and didn't know until afterwards.)
I've always been particularly intrigued by the early northern cell making a beeline for central OKC (14:15). Do you think that jetstreak's position further south was a catalyst in the dominance of the southern Moore cell or is that just more basic inflow physics? Hard to fathom a situation like this being any worse, but if the north cell had become dominant and a similar strength storm went straight through the heart of the metro that probably would be the case.
I think the southernmost cell was able to take over just because its inflow was unimpeded. The northern cells had storms that were influencing their inflow, whereas the southern storm had a much cleaner environment to work with.
awesome video man! I actually have never seen the high res data for Moore so that was a surprise, i thought it was a “student access only” kinda thing. super glad you talked about the DRC and the Broyles paper/animation as well, you killed it with this one!
Great video! One of the best breakdowns I’ve seen of this event! If you ever need an idea for a breakdown the 1984 Carolina outbreak would be an interesting one 👍🏻
Thank you for doing this. You mentioned you could have gone into far greater depth on this towards the end. If you ever feel like going deeper, I would love to watch.
As always, an absolutely brilliant analysis; I can't really express just how much I love these videos. It was also extremely interesting to see that modified sounding with the mesobeta-scale jet influence; I hadn't seen that before!
@@ConvectiveChronicles Thank you it was terrifying. We had just paid off our truck May 3 completely totaled. He said before he ran into the bathroom the truck is coming 4 feet off the ground. I’m glad my neighbors and us were okay. Now I laugh about the truck. Especially when thinking children at Plaza Towers perished. The school was 3 blocks from us.
Love your stuff!!! Now that we are heading towards winter, how about some winter storm case studies? I was looking for some non-local news information on the ice storm of 2009 but couldn't find anything worth watching.
Great video, this is one of my favorite cases. Regarding your discussion about jet entrance zones, as a weather forecaster, I'm always a little bit desperate when I have to distinguish which one is the real lifting effect in different cases. Jet divergences, vorticity advection, local convergences, and so on. I'm not sure how a synoptic-scale lifting effect indeed helps the mesoscale features, or if the local effects are dominant. All the best from Hungary!
Thanks so much! It’s always tough; in a lot of cases, terrain can be the driving factor (e.g. Colorado/Wyoming) and you don’t need a ton of synoptic-scale forcing for ascent, whereas in other areas, you need a stout synoptic system to kick things off.
Absolutely amazing video! I've just recently discovered your channel and I'm only about 3 videos in and I've already learned so much more about forecasting
After the failed occlusion their was multiple points of it producing high end Ef4 to Ef5 damage, it really does weaken till well outside the metro area as the final Ef5 Di was located just outside the main metro area
I have been waiting for this. This was really interesting. It's weird how you all keep seeing things and then come up with a word we all use lol. I love this analysis thank you so much. The more you learn about these events, the less scared you are and the more you know what to look for to protect you and the family.
Thanks so much! Absolutely agree; these events are awful when they impact people’s lives, but the best thing we can do is learn from them to be better prepared.
This was fascinating to watch. Thank you for doing these case studies. Amazing to think how such a small thing can make a huge difference in what goes on.
Do you plan to cover the Windsor, CO tornado from 2008? The weird thing about that one is the track went northwest. Two other odd tornado events in CO: one at 11,500 ft near Mt. Evans in 2012 (now called Blue Sky because Evans was one of the guys who caused the Sand Creek Massacre) and one below treeline on Pikes Peak this summer.
good stuff man... i remember some of my people from OKC showing up at my Parents the day after El Reno...looking shellshocked and being very quiet for a couple days. you count up all the tornadoes that hit Cleveland...Oklahoma...Canadian counties in May 2013...OKC was kinda under siege. there was talk of them relocating down here in the Metroplex...but...they love their city and went back to help out.
i remember this day so vividly despite being only in 3rd grade. i remember how nice it was that morning and then next thing i knew i was being ran through the halls by my auntie bc she had to force me out of class (the principal refused to let anyone go bc the tornado was just a few streets over). we out drove it and hid out in norman. scary stuff. i graduated almost 2 yrs ago and we held a memorial at all moore school graduations for the 7 kids who died. they were suppose to graduate with us, but yk… it was very nice. 7 lamps and empty chairs for 7 kids. their parents even came and held pictures on stage. their names were called and they were able to “walk” the stage. i wish they had diplomas made too.”
When we see that such chaotic processes can lead to the most violent tornadoes, it doesn't make us optimistic about our ability to anticipate them. By the way, why there is also an arc of reduced CC south of the FFD (25:25) ? Some hail ?
By far the most notorious tornado of that outbreak was the EF 4 which struck Washington, Illinois. What makes the November 17th outbreak so horrifying is the time of year it occurred. People really don't expect a tornado to strike in late November and as a result the residents of Washington had gone from being excited for Thanksgiving and Christmas to a sense of heartbreak, confusion and helplessness. To add to their misery it snowed a week after the storm; which hindered cleanup efforts. What many consider an absolute miracle is the fact that none of the churches in Washington were hit by the storm. This is extremely fortunate as it was a Sunday and many people were attending church services.
One of the more historic tornadoes of the last 30 years. I was waiting on you to put this beast out. 2013 was a legendary tornado year. One thing for sure that this tornado has some of the most wild motion you will see in a EF5 tornado. Like it was amazing too how this set up as you explored wasn't as primed up for a good tornado day but we have seen like in this case that if you get the right conditions to set up, you can get something of this caliber. I know the NWS in Norman years ago did a full analysis of this storm but I think that was before all the main papers and such came out from this over the years later too, so there was more stuff that came out and I think this stuff here you have pointed that out. As for this storm....I mean the radar presentation is still so sick and how HUGE the main supercell was is stuff we have only seen a handful of times the last 5 years. The weak echo hole is so amazing and granted to get radar data like this is you need to have a DOW or something literally within only a few miles of these but it's remarkable how stout that tornado looks in high Res like that and also it picking up on the debris flying around it and being ejected. That's still so damn cool to see visually and how it can pick that up in that level of detail besides your basic debris ball on broader CC. I don't know if we will properly see a EF5 anytime soon as the classification to get a tornado of that level is very hard these days I think honestly. If Rolling Fork and Mayfield are anything to go by....hell even the Keota, IA tornado (2023 tornado of the year by far) show is that you need LITERALLY the top and I mean the TOP TOP level storms and tornadoes to get that rating. Hence why it's been so long and since this tornado in general to get a EF5. I mean it's also true seeing Rolling Fork and Mayfield vs this storm too. Those tornadoes and the debris they left behind and stuff were immense but compared to this tornado you can see the difference still as to why those were not EF5s as much as people and weather weenies wanted it to be. Hence, if I see these strong tornadoes and stuff post-video or whatever, I reserve that highest end it will be Ef4. As I said you REALLY need to either see damage like what this Moore tornado did where it slabbed everything practically it ran into and not just one or 2 slabbed buildings in Rolling Fork/Mayfield and you then need to check was how the structure was built in the first place. Like yeah, this Moore EF5 tornado was insane.
Another one that was close was the Rochelle/Fairdale IL EF4. An estimate of 200 mph winds was given with that one. That one I believe would have been an EF5 had that one hit a larger city rather than remaining in rural farmland
Revisiting this as I’m just in one of those moods again lol. I don’t think I caught what contributed to the longevity and keeping this tornado as strong as it was the first time I watched. So it was just that jet streak? And then when the jet streak fell off that’s when the occlusion tried to happen?
The jet streak appeared to have locally enhanced the environment, and storm interactions certainly played a role. It might be a coincidence, but when the jet streak fully passed by and was no longer influencing the storm, the tornado seemed to begin its occlusion process
Minor nitpick: the Parkersburg, Iowa EF-5 tornado occurred on May 25th, 2008. Not many people outside of Iowa know about it because it had only been a year since the first ever EF-5 tornado struck Greensburg, Kansas.
Well, of course it was the 'very small-scale localized mid-level jet streak'. Duh. Totally saw that one coming! (kidding) Let's call it a VSSLMLJS. 🙂 Awesome write-up Trey. I am impressed at your work, as always!
Here’s a problem I have May 20th as a whole and issues I’ve been trying to figure out for years, and btw I am a new subscriber and am enjoying catching up on your backlog of videos. I’ve read and watched multiple reviews of this event and they all say the same thing one way or another about that day being less than remarkable as far as the conditions go for long track and violent tornadoes. Now there is definite proof of that being the case looking back at the soundings and computer data, however there is definitely another version of this story that has proof of the exact opposite. I lived in Oklahoma City that day and to tell you the truth I was kind of taken back the first time I watched a video of an analysis from that day and it saying conditions for that kind of tornado weren’t there. Because I vividly remember local meteorologist loudly sounding the alarm. So much so that schools were letting out early for the potential of tornadoes before storms even formed. I mean this is something that has only happened a few times. Why would they do that on such an unremarkable day, and on top of that actually come to pass and being right about it. Now unfortunately as we know not every school released students and there were fatalities, but I do remember this being talked about. So I decided to do some research and sure enough if you go back and watch videos of news coverage from that day of guys like Gary England and especially Mike Morgan they were describing a day that was different than we were used to, a day that we should call our loved ones about, and a very high level severe weather day. I mean Mike Morgan the second there was even signs of cumulus clouds boiling up was warning about long track tornadoes. As a man in my late 20’s even I made a Facebook post frustrated at outsiders making negative remarks about our preparedness as part of the reason 7 children died in the school. I was guaranteeing people everyone in OKC was well prepared and there was a single person in Okc that didn’t know that day was going to be bad including violent tornadoes. So my question is, or I guess my confusion is, how can we look at all of these historical analysis and come to a conclusion that there was nothing special or any indication that was going to happen, but local meteorologist that have spent their careers in OKC clearly knew it was coming. Quite frankly I attribute only having 27 deaths with an F-5 tornado going through a heavily populated area including I-35 during rush hour is directly attributed to their warning and knowing what was coming. I’m pretty sure even Reed Timmer made a FB post that day about it if I remember right and I for sure remember knowing it was coming. So something isn’t jiving with the whole analysis with everyone that is in involved and if it were me, I sure would want to find out what guys like Gary England and Mike Morgan knew that computer models didn’t before we lose that knowledge and instincts to history. Tell me this forecaster from the NWS who told his daughter to leave town that morning didn’t know what was coming. I’ve never seen anyone do that for severe weather, especially a meteorologist at the NWS. ua-cam.com/video/s5k8Ieq9ORs/v-deo.htmlsi=6jTuz0OwPEIpZUZ3
First of all, thank you for being a new subscriber, and I'm happy to hear you're enjoying the videos! The threat for strong tornadoes certainly was there, as it is in a lot of highly unstable environments. However, the wind profile was not all that favorable for violent tornadoes; as I explained in the video, unique storm mergers and dynamics were the main reasons for the Moore tornado. Most of the other storms in the OKC area and southward didn't do much of anything because they didn't have the right storm interactions to bolster their proximity environment, which was less than ideal to begin with and needed those storm interactions to compensate. I'll be 100% honest, I don't have a very favorable opinion of Mike Morgan...his antics during El Reno 2013 aside, I've seen him call for significant tornado outbreaks numerous times when the setup is clearly not even in the same ballpark, and nothing of note happens. As far as Reed goes, he even ditched the OKC area to target storms to the south and missed the Moore tornado. These highly unstable environments have extremely high ceilings, even with limited wind profiles (examples are the 1997 Jarrell, TX F5 and the 1990 Plainfield, IL F5, both which I've done case studies on), but everything has to be absolutely perfect (boundary/storm interactions, etc.) to bolster the environment and get violent tornadoes. So I can see why the concern was there ahead of time, as it was a very high-ceiling, very low floor event, and these TV mets know, especially after May 3 1999, how important it is to have folks prepared for the worst.
@@ConvectiveChronicles To be honest I don’t have a very high opinion of Mike Morgan either, especially after the May 31st debacle of telling people to leave town. That being said although he tends to overhype, especially in the past, he has also made some very good calls and does have a lot of experience and local knowledge in this specific market. I might be showing my age here as a 40 year old, but I think experience is something people don’t value as much as they should. Knowing the reputation Mike Morgan has is why I also include Gary England, Reed Timmer, and the video of the meteorologist at the NWS that told his daughter to leave town that morning. Your response to my question just reaffirmed why I asked it and didn’t answer it at all. I know that patterns and every other meteorological things you said are true, and even though Mike Morgan can be a littler hyperbolic sometimes the way he talked that morning is something I’ve only seen him do maybe 10 times in 30+ years and Gary England do a few times at the most. Not something you would do on an unremarkable day. I also just watched an actual UA-cam video from the National Weather Service from 11:00 am that day that said the exact same thing. So my question or confusion again isn’t what were the synopsis of that day, it’s why when I look back at multiple local sources from that day do they say long track violent tornado’s are likely, but when we go back to analyze it we see something different? This is not an opinion, this has been proven by multiple sources including local meteorologist that are hyperbolic, local meteorologist that know more than any of us will forget and under hype many times, and the meteorologist at the National Weather Service that issued the Tornado Emergency 16 minutes before the tornado hit Moore. This guy who has all of the credentials you could want, that lived in Moore, told his daughter that morning to leave town. Most important my own memory from this all stemmed from. I don’t claim to be on your level in any way, but I am from the generation that went to see Twister for a field trip in 7th grade, lived in SW OKC on May 3rd, and am a hobbyist and storm chaser. I went through the eye of hurricane Laura, I’ve witnessed 20 tornadoes, and I’m flying out to Donner Pass tomorrow morning for the 10 feet of snow this weekend. So it’s not just a passing memory. This was an important moment in my life. I vividly know the environment that was the morning of May 20, 2020. You can not tell me there was not something they saw that morning that completely contradicts everything you and every other meteorologist making videos about it today. They knew that morning that it was in fact a remarkable day, not the other way around. They in fact knew large violent tornadoes in OKC while schools were letting out was likely. Not my words, words from the National Weather Service in Norman. I’ve gone back and watched the videos, I’ve gone back and looked at many social media accounts, and It’s just doesn’t square with the post analysis. I’m not holding that against you, or saying anything negative about you or anyone else. I am just genuinely curious and I bet it would make a great video. Why did everyone in OKC seem to know that morning what was going to happen, but today people say nobody saw it coming?
@@danieljordan9004 The folks at the SPC, whose severe weather info should be trusted first and foremost, had a 10% hatched area out for strong tornadoes all through the event, the lowest probability level for which a hatched area can be added. They mentioned isolated strong tornadoes, nothing about long-track violent tornadoes. The environment was simply not a clear example of a violent tornado environment, as expressed in the video and by SPC forecasters that morning. Gary and Mike warning about violent tornadoes was probably based on "experience" working in Oklahoma for decades, but it likely did not have meteorological backing, as the meteorology was simply not there for violent tornadoes, at least until we could see storms interacting in real time.
Does anyone know why F-4 to F5 tornadoes 🌪 in particular have evil looking faces in them? Some very disturbing images the tornadic clouds! Any reasonable answer I would like to hear.
This tornado was BAD. I remember it well & now every time I hear the name Moore I immediately think of this 2013 EF5 tornado & the one of May 3rd 1999. May 3rd, 1999 F5 was & is the most powerful tornado ever recorded on Earth by windspeed. DOW recorded it as 320 + or - in mph. That storm from 1999 scares me to even think tornadoes can become that powerful.
23:44 >280 mph measured windspeed nearly 7 times the 210 mph windspeed measured by the damage survey teams! No wonder why this tornado got an EF5 rating instead of the High-end EF4. For me any EF3+ tornado has the potential for EF5 wind speeds.
I discussed this in my latest case study on the 4-30-24 Hollister, OK tornadic supercell, but delta-v is not an accurate measurement of near-surface wind speeds in tornadoes. Typical practice is to cut delta-v in half, which is rotational velocity. This is a better indicator, although not perfect, of near-surface winds within the vortex.
There's some complicated math that can explain this, and it helps to have an image to see, but I'll try to explain it in words: north of a jet streak's core is the region of maximum positive vorticity (cyclonic/counterclockwise spin), and south of a jet streak's core is the region of maximum negative vorticity (anticyclonic/clockwise spin). We can simplify the vorticity equation, which is one of the fundamental equations in meteorology, to show that the degree of vorticity advection is directly related to the degree of divergence. You can have two kinds of vorticity advection: negative vorticity advection (NVA), which is when the background flow transports negative vorticity into a region, and positive vorticity advection (PVA), which is when the background flow transports positive vorticity into a region. Assuming west to east flow through the jet streak, as is the case the vast majority of the time, we can determine that in the left exit region, we have strong positive vorticity being advected into the region, which is PVA and thus yields divergence. In the right exit region, strong negative vorticity is being advected into the region, which is NVA and thus yields negative divergence, which is convergence. In the right entrance region, we have higher (more positive vorticity) being advected into a region of lesser vorticity (closer to the max negative vorticity region south of the jet core), which is PVA and thus yields divergence. In the left entrance region, we have lower (more negative vorticity) being advected into a region of higher vorticity (closer to the max positive vorticity region north of the jet core), which is NVA and thus yields convergence. Hopefully, this helps; I wish I could include an image with this comment, as that would make things a bit easier to understand.
Stellar as per usual. What a stroke of horrid luck that such a small feature would happen in just the right place to impact a major metro area.
Thank you! This one and the 1999 EF5 within a 15 year span…Moore does have some bad luck.
@@ConvectiveChroniclesI would not be surprised if they got another big one within the next 10 years, although May seems to perform well below average lately when the tornado threat shifts westwards
Only a matter of time before it happens again..
That's why Tornado prediction is SO hard. All these small scale things can make a huge difference to intensity of vorticity.
As a child, I studied weather with extreme curiosity. Decades later, I am still learning about weather with the same extreme curiosity. Thank you to folks like you for posting this content.
Just shows how perfect things need to be for these monsters to be created but at the same time can never let your guard down in times when it doesnt seem likely. Crazy to think about. Great video as always!!
Thanks so much! Totally agree!
When “all it takes is one storm” is taken into a meaning both in the meteorology of what happened when the small storm cell merged with the large cell making the shear go nuts and how that storm was the only storm that had a drastic impact on people’s lives that day
2 events I'd love to see you cover: The 1974 Super Outbreak (particularly why there was such a wide swath of violent tornadoes), and the August 24, 2016 tornado outbreak in the southern Great Lakes region (especially considering how unexpected it was).
Both on my list!
@@ConvectiveChronicles Badass.
And thank you for the fantastic content you create!
I remember that day in 2016. Was watching the radar out of Detroit after getting reports of tornadoes near Toledo, Ohio - then the action moved into Windsor, Ontario. Had to phone a friend, whose family lived near Windsor to tell her about the potential tornado, as Environment Canada didn't issue a Tornado Warning until after the tornado (EF2) had lifted!
April 2-4, 1974 is so unique. Again, F3 tornado impacted Windsor, Ontario, badly damaging a curling club building.
Thank you!
Excellent video Trey! I saw the same kind of failed occlusion process with the Yuma, CO tornado. The original tornado vortex occluded and began to shift north, but then another vortex appeared and you could see that second vortex take over as the main one as the RFD wrapped the wall cloud around it. Very interesting stuff!
Thank you! Yeah, I’ve seen a lot of cases with failed occlusions. Would love to know more about why the occlusion process can fail sometimes but other times it’s successful.
You have greatly increased my knowledge and understanding on what to look for in these storms. You are damn good at what you do! I’ve learned so much on forecasting and chasing in a very short period of time. Wish I would of found this channel sooner 😂. I really like to take deep dives into topics and learn everything about a certain event. 5 f**king stars man 👏🏼
Thank you so much for the kind words!
Another amazing video as usual. Easier to digest every time, and very exact in defining things for those who might not understand! Thank you for putting so much hard work into these analysis videos, and I look forward to seeing more in the future!
Thank you so much!
Just an incredible video, Trey! There's so much I could dive into but I'll hit a couple key bullet points and still create a wall of text. Love talking weather!
1. Thank you for leaving this video out of the social media discourse. I know you sometimes very briefly touch on it in forecast videos when social media gets crazy about big events, but in a case study, there's no place to talk about the group of people begging for an EF-5 again. You focused on the storm and the education, and I appreciate that.
2. Every time I watch one of your videos now that I'm "caught up", I'm looking forward to the one new thing to learn every video. In this one, you really brought the heat! Teacher Trey was on full display, really digging into some meaty details and bringing up some concepts new to the channel. And it's never presented in "here's how smart I am I went to school for this" it's always "here's why this/these particular weird edge-case meteorological concepts provided what this tornado needed to succeed" and boy did this tornado need that deep dive. The amount of nuance that had to come together to make this storm what it was is just insane.
3. Hi-res/mobile radar data continues to be pure weather porn. The more of this we can add to the world, the better. The amount of tiny mesoscale details that can be pinpointed by these hi-res solutions is so incredibly wonderful to look at, but also so incredibly valuable from a safety perspective. In these high tornado risk areas we NEED more of these hi-res radars to really help the NWS offices know when to escalate tornado warnings and give more precision in tornado tracks and intensity
4. I feel like I've said this before, but there is no better video to highlight the fact that the synoptic scale cannot and will not ever tell the whole story. A 30 mile blob of enhanced 700mb jet streak combined with multiple smaller constructive storm mergers with a pre-existing mesocyclone turning what should be a short-lived, low-impact tornado into one of the most infamous tornadoes of a generation is everything to understanding why the synoptic scale is a fraction of the story when it comes to tornadoes. The term "perfect storm" gets thrown around a lot, but this really was the "perfect storm" of weird mesoscale features coming together to create a monster.
5. Failed occlusions are weird and I want to know more. A tornado trying to die and not being able to is simultaneously incredibly interesting and also horrifying. The worst case scenario for a tornado is when it stops moving (see: Jarrell EF5) and a failed occlusion pretty much creates that by causing the loop. I imagine work is being done, but it seems so hard to understand the details of what stops the occlusion process and puts the tornado back on its original path.
There's WAY more packed into this 30 minute video, you continue to put out awesome videos, and I will continue blabbering on about weather in the comments section. Thanks so much for another great one, and looking forward to more!
Thank you so much! I was really happy with how this one turned out; I'm trying to make these more concise but still pack the same amount of info into each video.
The storm certainly had the "perfect storm" of nuanced ingredients to go from a run-of-the-mill severe weather producer to a historic one. It's not often that that's the case AND we have incredible tools there to measure, it like the super-high-res PX-1000 radar only a handful of miles away. And I am with you on failed occlusions...hopefully, we get some more research on them in the future.
the way this storm and the 2011 Joplin storm were so similar and yet so rare and to have occurred just 2 years apart has always been fascinating to me. This was a great breakdown and explanation of this event. Great job and great video!
Thank you so much!
So true. The Joplin EF5 might have grown more rapidly in sheer size. Still, the Moore EF5 became super intense very quickly, almost immediately producing strong to violent damage, even during its cone and stovepipe phases, much like the F5 that occurred in 99. Horrifying events.
A lot of people have asked why the Joplin, Missouri tornado on May 22, 2011 was so much deadlier than the Moore, Oklahoma tornado on May 20, 2013 even though they were both rated as an EF-5 by the National Weather Service. It comes down to the following six key factors:
1.) The Joplin tornado formed too quickly for the National Weather Service office in Springfield, Missouri to issue a Tornado Emergency for the city of Joplin even though they had issued a Tornado Warning for both Jasper County and Newton County.
2.) The tornado formed right outside of Joplin, cut through the city and dissipated upon leaving it.
3.) Prior to May 22, 2011; Joplin had not been hit by a significant tornado since May 5, 1971. As a result the residents of Joplin, Missouri assumed that the mountainous and hilly terrain of southwestern Missouri functioned as a natural shield from tornadoes as southwestern Missouri is home to the Ozarks.
4.) Many residents of Joplin ignored the tornado warnings when they were first issued due to being desensitized from the city issuing too many false alarms.
5.) When the tornado sirens in Joplin were first sounded at 5:17 PM Central Time it gave the residents of Joplin a woefully insufficient amount of seventeen minutes to take shelter. By the time the tornado sirens began to sound a second time at 5:34 PM it was too late to do anything because the tornado was already on the ground and moving through the city.
6.) By far the biggest contributing factor is that the Joplin tornado was hidden by heavy rain and difficult to see.
By comparison the residents of Moore, Oklahoma are extremely weather-wise and aware of the potential severity of a tornado as their city is practically synonymous with large, long-track, violent and destructive tornadoes. When a Tornado Watch is issued the residents of Moore become extremely vigilant and keep their eyes on the sky. As soon as a Tornado Warning is issued the residents of Moore know to stay calm in order to make smart decisions that will save their lives. They know what to do and where to go as well as who they can turn to for coverage of the weather. When the National Weather Service office in Norman, Oklahoma issued a Tornado Watch for much of central and eastern Oklahoma at 1:10 PM Central Time three of the major TV stations in Oklahoma City (NBC affiliate KFOR channel 4, ABC affiliate KOCO channel 5, and CBS affiliate KWTV Channel 9) immediately suspended regular programming and went into wall-to-wall coverage of the weather; with the city's Fox affiliate KOKH Channel 25 and Telemundo affiliate KTUZ Channel 30 doing so when the first thunderstorms erupted southwest of Oklahoma City.
The Parkersburg EF5 and the 2013 Moore EF5 are also two examples of HP supercells producing highly visible and highly photogenic tornadoes. It was a stark yet eerie/ominous example that you don't need a classic or LP supercell to have a photogenic twister.
Amazing to see how the smallest of changes can result in the most significant of storms. Excellent break down, love the deep dives into the science.
Thanks so much!
@@ConvectiveChronicles Being an aviation enthusiast and weather nerd, is there enough scientific data surrounding the microburst crash of Delta 191 in 1985 to do a case study on and the affects it had on the weather and aviation communities?
@@sythemaster1Yes, that would be an interesting one to do!
Amazing that you were able to boil it all down to a small little jet streak.
That’s all thanks to the hard work of Broyles and company at the SPC. Really intriguing stuff, and it’s something that may influence more violent tornadoes than we think.
I love events with minor possible anomalies like this driving them. It just shows we still have a ton to learn and weather can still throw us curve balls.
Fantastic job Trey! You are getting so good at these breakdowns! Very concise, well structured, clearly communicated and thoroughly researched data present throughout. Major kudos sir. Been excited for this one for a while.
Thank you so much! I was really happy with how this one turned out; I’m trying to structure these a bit better so they’re more concise but still pack all the info into a single video.
Amazing video as usual, just a small suggestion: the video would be easier to follow if you'd show the time and location of the event in the beginning as observed so we could see where the features you point out are in relation to that. The SPC forecast is great but they're rarely that precise (in this case they were a bit off to the east for example). Similarly, knowing a map is 7 hours before storm initiation is more informative than just "12z".
Thanks, will do
Great suggestions!
Very informative. Another common Trey W, I always leave these videos having learned many things, and I can’t thank you enough for that.
Thank you!!
Dude yes!! I'm now living in one of the homes in the regency neighborhood that was hit in the 1999 f5
Dang, nice!
You're creating an excellent explainer series. Each case study provides something new to learn, and builds the viewer's knowledge. Thanks!
Thank you!
I’ve been looking forward to this one. Two EF5 tornadoes in 14 years for Moore, right, and similar paths. I can’t even imagine…
Were you living in the Norman area when this happened?
Yeah, Moore has had some bad luck over the years…thankfully, I was not living in Norman at the time.
Not only Two cat 5 tornadoes on the Fujita and Enhanced Fujita scales respectively, but two of the most violent tornadoes ever recorded in history as well. We know how destructive May 3rd was. Hell, the EF5 category was built upon that tornado and Jarrell. However, I know people are going to rip my face off for this, but the May 20, 2013, Newcastle Moore EF5 was every bit as violent as the 4.27.2011 tornadoes (the NWS themselves think so too). This tornado produced many of the same DIs that the Phil-Campbell Hackleburg and Smithville EF5s did. Want to know 3 tornadoes that ripped out and completely shredded electrical routing and plumbing out of many foundations? Smithville, Jarrell, and this tornado, the Newcastle Moore EF5. It's a tale of just how extreme an EF5 tornado truly is and it's a sobering reminder that any strength disparity between one EF5 and another is paper thin at best.
I was coming home from work when this stopped me. I had to abandon my car and wade through the destruction. I couldn't bring myself to go near the school, but I did manage to dig several people out of the rubble. It's a day I'll never forget.
Btw, my parents' house was hit by the May 3rd tornado.
Can’t imagine what seeing that damage in person must’ve been like
@@ConvectiveChronicles It's not on my "Top Ten Days of Fun" list. I've lived in Oklahoma for many years and seen many tornados. This was the only one to scare me. (I was in Colorado for the May 3rd and didn't know until afterwards.)
Outstanding analysis. Thank you for all you do Trey!
Thank you!!
I've always been particularly intrigued by the early northern cell making a beeline for central OKC (14:15). Do you think that jetstreak's position further south was a catalyst in the dominance of the southern Moore cell or is that just more basic inflow physics? Hard to fathom a situation like this being any worse, but if the north cell had become dominant and a similar strength storm went straight through the heart of the metro that probably would be the case.
I think the southernmost cell was able to take over just because its inflow was unimpeded. The northern cells had storms that were influencing their inflow, whereas the southern storm had a much cleaner environment to work with.
awesome video man! I actually have never seen the high res data for Moore so that was a surprise, i thought it was a “student access only” kinda thing. super glad you talked about the DRC and the Broyles paper/animation as well, you killed it with this one!
Thank you so much!
Awesome video.🙂👍 I think this will be a day many people won't forget. since, EF-5 tornadoes🌪 don't happen very often. Nice case study.
Thanks so much! I agree!
@@ConvectiveChronicles Your welcome.
Great video! One of the best breakdowns I’ve seen of this event! If you ever need an idea for a breakdown the 1984 Carolina outbreak would be an interesting one 👍🏻
Thanks so much! I’ll add it to the list!
April 16 2011 Carolina outbreak, a strong squall line entered n.c. And low level jet ripped apart the squall line and all became discrete supercells
Thank you for doing this. You mentioned you could have gone into far greater depth on this towards the end. If you ever feel like going deeper, I would love to watch.
You do great work! Keep it up! I enjoy listening to your deep-dive analysis.
Thanks so much!
As always, an absolutely brilliant analysis; I can't really express just how much I love these videos. It was also extremely interesting to see that modified sounding with the mesobeta-scale jet influence; I hadn't seen that before!
Thanks so much, Ethan!
@@ConvectiveChronicles You're very much welcome!
My late husband and I were hit by this tornado. And the May 3 1999 tornado
Dang, sorry to hear that
@@ConvectiveChronicles
Thank you it was terrifying. We had just paid off our truck May 3 completely totaled. He said before he ran into the bathroom the truck is coming 4 feet off the ground. I’m glad my neighbors and us were okay. Now I laugh about the truck. Especially when thinking children at Plaza Towers perished. The school was 3 blocks from us.
Incredible work as always!
Thank you!
Thanks so much!
Love your stuff!!! Now that we are heading towards winter, how about some winter storm case studies? I was looking for some non-local news information on the ice storm of 2009 but couldn't find anything worth watching.
Thank you! I'll be completely honest, winter weather is not my forte, so I tend to shy away from doing these full-fledged videos on winter stuff.
Awesome to see you back Trey
So that little cell basically said "Hey, my friend over there is developing a mesocyclone, I'll help out!"
I like you❤ I was thinking the same thing! 😂
Great video, this is one of my favorite cases. Regarding your discussion about jet entrance zones, as a weather forecaster, I'm always a little bit desperate when I have to distinguish which one is the real lifting effect in different cases. Jet divergences, vorticity advection, local convergences, and so on. I'm not sure how a synoptic-scale lifting effect indeed helps the mesoscale features, or if the local effects are dominant. All the best from Hungary!
Thanks so much! It’s always tough; in a lot of cases, terrain can be the driving factor (e.g. Colorado/Wyoming) and you don’t need a ton of synoptic-scale forcing for ascent, whereas in other areas, you need a stout synoptic system to kick things off.
Absolutely amazing video!
I've just recently discovered your channel and I'm only about 3 videos in and I've already learned so much more about forecasting
Thank you so much!
After the failed occlusion their was multiple points of it producing high end Ef4 to Ef5 damage, it really does weaken till well outside the metro area as the final Ef5 Di was located just outside the main metro area
I have been waiting for this. This was really interesting. It's weird how you all keep seeing things and then come up with a word we all use lol. I love this analysis thank you so much. The more you learn about these events, the less scared you are and the more you know what to look for to protect you and the family.
Thanks so much! Absolutely agree; these events are awful when they impact people’s lives, but the best thing we can do is learn from them to be better prepared.
This was fascinating to watch. Thank you for doing these case studies. Amazing to think how such a small thing can make a huge difference in what goes on.
Thank you so much!
Been waiting on this one!!! Great job Trey!!! Keep 'em coming!
Thank you so much!
Do you plan to cover the Windsor, CO tornado from 2008? The weird thing about that one is the track went northwest.
Two other odd tornado events in CO: one at 11,500 ft near Mt. Evans in 2012 (now called Blue Sky because Evans was one of the guys who caused the Sand Creek Massacre) and one below treeline on Pikes Peak this summer.
Yes, Windsor is on my list
Great video. I've been looking forward to this one and you didn't disappoint.
Thanks so much!
good stuff man...
i remember some of my people from OKC showing up at my Parents the day after El Reno...looking shellshocked and being very quiet for a couple days.
you count up all the tornadoes that hit Cleveland...Oklahoma...Canadian counties in May 2013...OKC was kinda under siege.
there was talk of them relocating down here in the Metroplex...but...they love their city and went back to help out.
Thank you! Yeah, 2013 was a crazy year for central Oklahoma, really just that 2-week stretch in May. One of the most nuts periods in recent memory.
i remember this day so vividly despite being only in 3rd grade. i remember how nice it was that morning and then next thing i knew i was being ran through the halls by my auntie bc she had to force me out of class (the principal refused to let anyone go bc the tornado was just a few streets over). we out drove it and hid out in norman. scary stuff.
i graduated almost 2 yrs ago and we held a memorial at all moore school graduations for the 7 kids who died. they were suppose to graduate with us, but yk… it was very nice. 7 lamps and empty chairs for 7 kids. their parents even came and held pictures on stage. their names were called and they were able to “walk” the stage. i wish they had diplomas made too.”
When we see that such chaotic processes can lead to the most violent tornadoes, it doesn't make us optimistic about our ability to anticipate them. By the way, why there is also an arc of reduced CC south of the FFD (25:25) ? Some hail ?
Absolutely! I believe that arc of lowered CC is debris fallout.
I plugged your channel into Dr. Gary Lackmann’s synoptic meteorology class. Sending love from NC State!
Thanks so much!!
Great video! I would love to see you do a Case Study of the November 17th 2013 tornado outbreak.
Thank you! It's on my list!
By far the most notorious tornado of that outbreak was the EF 4 which struck Washington, Illinois. What makes the November 17th outbreak so horrifying is the time of year it occurred. People really don't expect a tornado to strike in late November and as a result the residents of Washington had gone from being excited for Thanksgiving and Christmas to a sense of heartbreak, confusion and helplessness. To add to their misery it snowed a week after the storm; which hindered cleanup efforts. What many consider an absolute miracle is the fact that none of the churches in Washington were hit by the storm. This is extremely fortunate as it was a Sunday and many people were attending church services.
One of the more historic tornadoes of the last 30 years. I was waiting on you to put this beast out. 2013 was a legendary tornado year.
One thing for sure that this tornado has some of the most wild motion you will see in a EF5 tornado. Like it was amazing too how this set up as you explored wasn't as primed up for a good tornado day but we have seen like in this case that if you get the right conditions to set up, you can get something of this caliber. I know the NWS in Norman years ago did a full analysis of this storm but I think that was before all the main papers and such came out from this over the years later too, so there was more stuff that came out and I think this stuff here you have pointed that out.
As for this storm....I mean the radar presentation is still so sick and how HUGE the main supercell was is stuff we have only seen a handful of times the last 5 years. The weak echo hole is so amazing and granted to get radar data like this is you need to have a DOW or something literally within only a few miles of these but it's remarkable how stout that tornado looks in high Res like that and also it picking up on the debris flying around it and being ejected. That's still so damn cool to see visually and how it can pick that up in that level of detail besides your basic debris ball on broader CC.
I don't know if we will properly see a EF5 anytime soon as the classification to get a tornado of that level is very hard these days I think honestly. If Rolling Fork and Mayfield are anything to go by....hell even the Keota, IA tornado (2023 tornado of the year by far) show is that you need LITERALLY the top and I mean the TOP TOP level storms and tornadoes to get that rating. Hence why it's been so long and since this tornado in general to get a EF5. I mean it's also true seeing Rolling Fork and Mayfield vs this storm too. Those tornadoes and the debris they left behind and stuff were immense but compared to this tornado you can see the difference still as to why those were not EF5s as much as people and weather weenies wanted it to be. Hence, if I see these strong tornadoes and stuff post-video or whatever, I reserve that highest end it will be Ef4. As I said you REALLY need to either see damage like what this Moore tornado did where it slabbed everything practically it ran into and not just one or 2 slabbed buildings in Rolling Fork/Mayfield and you then need to check was how the structure was built in the first place. Like yeah, this Moore EF5 tornado was insane.
Another one that was close was the Rochelle/Fairdale IL EF4. An estimate of 200 mph winds was given with that one. That one I believe would have been an EF5 had that one hit a larger city rather than remaining in rural farmland
Outstanding video and explanation as usual.
Thank you!
great analysis, I learn a lot from videos like this
Thank you!
I already know this is going to be a good video but I wonder if their will ever be another EF5/F5 tornado again. I do hope their isnt
We’ll see; we’ve had a few contenders over the last few years.
These are super helpful to learning more about what it takes to produce these 🌪️ thanks for the great content love these case studies
Thank you!
Another awesome breakdown. Keep up the good work!
Thank you so much! I really appreciate it!
Revisiting this as I’m just in one of those moods again lol. I don’t think I caught what contributed to the longevity and keeping this tornado as strong as it was the first time I watched. So it was just that jet streak? And then when the jet streak fell off that’s when the occlusion tried to happen?
The jet streak appeared to have locally enhanced the environment, and storm interactions certainly played a role. It might be a coincidence, but when the jet streak fully passed by and was no longer influencing the storm, the tornado seemed to begin its occlusion process
Ever thought about doing the Parkersburg, Iowa EF5 from 2007?
It’s on my list!
Minor nitpick: the Parkersburg, Iowa EF-5 tornado occurred on May 25th, 2008. Not many people outside of Iowa know about it because it had only been a year since the first ever EF-5 tornado struck Greensburg, Kansas.
Great video!
Thank you for all your work.
Thanks so much!
Well, of course it was the 'very small-scale localized mid-level jet streak'. Duh.
Totally saw that one coming! (kidding)
Let's call it a VSSLMLJS. 🙂
Awesome write-up Trey. I am impressed at your work, as always!
Haha thank you so much!
The I44 corridor produces monsters. I live north east of Moore so we are always in path as they head toward Tinker AFB and Lake Stanley Draper.
Yeah, that seems to be the classic corridor for some of the big OK tornadoes
Ah i have been waiting for this!!! Im excited to watch it
Yessss can’t wait to watch this tomorrow!!
I met a survivor from the elementary school. She said "I crawled out of my gym"
Here’s a problem I have May 20th as a whole and issues I’ve been trying to figure out for years, and btw I am a new subscriber and am enjoying catching up on your backlog of videos. I’ve read and watched multiple reviews of this event and they all say the same thing one way or another about that day being less than remarkable as far as the conditions go for long track and violent tornadoes. Now there is definite proof of that being the case looking back at the soundings and computer data, however there is definitely another version of this story that has proof of the exact opposite. I lived in Oklahoma City that day and to tell you the truth I was kind of taken back the first time I watched a video of an analysis from that day and it saying conditions for that kind of tornado weren’t there. Because I vividly remember local meteorologist loudly sounding the alarm. So much so that schools were letting out early for the potential of tornadoes before storms even formed. I mean this is something that has only happened a few times. Why would they do that on such an unremarkable day, and on top of that actually come to pass and being right about it. Now unfortunately as we know not every school released students and there were fatalities, but I do remember this being talked about. So I decided to do some research and sure enough if you go back and watch videos of news coverage from that day of guys like Gary England and especially Mike Morgan they were describing a day that was different than we were used to, a day that we should call our loved ones about, and a very high level severe weather day. I mean Mike Morgan the second there was even signs of cumulus clouds boiling up was warning about long track tornadoes. As a man in my late 20’s even I made a Facebook post frustrated at outsiders making negative remarks about our preparedness as part of the reason 7 children died in the school. I was guaranteeing people everyone in OKC was well prepared and there was a single person in Okc that didn’t know that day was going to be bad including violent tornadoes. So my question is, or I guess my confusion is, how can we look at all of these historical analysis and come to a conclusion that there was nothing special or any indication that was going to happen, but local meteorologist that have spent their careers in OKC clearly knew it was coming. Quite frankly I attribute only having 27 deaths with an F-5 tornado going through a heavily populated area including I-35 during rush hour is directly attributed to their warning and knowing what was coming. I’m pretty sure even Reed Timmer made a FB post that day about it if I remember right and I for sure remember knowing it was coming. So something isn’t jiving with the whole analysis with everyone that is in involved and if it were me, I sure would want to find out what guys like Gary England and Mike Morgan knew that computer models didn’t before we lose that knowledge and instincts to history.
Tell me this forecaster from the NWS who told his daughter to leave town that morning didn’t know what was coming. I’ve never seen anyone do that for severe weather, especially a meteorologist at the NWS.
ua-cam.com/video/s5k8Ieq9ORs/v-deo.htmlsi=6jTuz0OwPEIpZUZ3
First of all, thank you for being a new subscriber, and I'm happy to hear you're enjoying the videos!
The threat for strong tornadoes certainly was there, as it is in a lot of highly unstable environments. However, the wind profile was not all that favorable for violent tornadoes; as I explained in the video, unique storm mergers and dynamics were the main reasons for the Moore tornado. Most of the other storms in the OKC area and southward didn't do much of anything because they didn't have the right storm interactions to bolster their proximity environment, which was less than ideal to begin with and needed those storm interactions to compensate. I'll be 100% honest, I don't have a very favorable opinion of Mike Morgan...his antics during El Reno 2013 aside, I've seen him call for significant tornado outbreaks numerous times when the setup is clearly not even in the same ballpark, and nothing of note happens. As far as Reed goes, he even ditched the OKC area to target storms to the south and missed the Moore tornado. These highly unstable environments have extremely high ceilings, even with limited wind profiles (examples are the 1997 Jarrell, TX F5 and the 1990 Plainfield, IL F5, both which I've done case studies on), but everything has to be absolutely perfect (boundary/storm interactions, etc.) to bolster the environment and get violent tornadoes. So I can see why the concern was there ahead of time, as it was a very high-ceiling, very low floor event, and these TV mets know, especially after May 3 1999, how important it is to have folks prepared for the worst.
@@ConvectiveChronicles To be honest I don’t have a very high opinion of Mike Morgan either, especially after the May 31st debacle of telling people to leave town. That being said although he tends to overhype, especially in the past, he has also made some very good calls and does have a lot of experience and local knowledge in this specific market. I might be showing my age here as a 40 year old, but I think experience is something people don’t value as much as they should. Knowing the reputation Mike Morgan has is why I also include Gary England, Reed Timmer, and the video of the meteorologist at the NWS that told his daughter to leave town that morning. Your response to my question just reaffirmed why I asked it and didn’t answer it at all. I know that patterns and every other meteorological things you said are true, and even though Mike Morgan can be a littler hyperbolic sometimes the way he talked that morning is something I’ve only seen him do maybe 10 times in 30+ years and Gary England do a few times at the most. Not something you would do on an unremarkable day. I also just watched an actual UA-cam video from the National Weather Service from 11:00 am that day that said the exact same thing. So my question or confusion again isn’t what were the synopsis of that day, it’s why when I look back at multiple local sources from that day do they say long track violent tornado’s are likely, but when we go back to analyze it we see something different? This is not an opinion, this has been proven by multiple sources including local meteorologist that are hyperbolic, local meteorologist that know more than any of us will forget and under hype many times, and the meteorologist at the National Weather Service that issued the Tornado Emergency 16 minutes before the tornado hit Moore. This guy who has all of the credentials you could want, that lived in Moore, told his daughter that morning to leave town. Most important my own memory from this all stemmed from. I don’t claim to be on your level in any way, but I am from the generation that went to see Twister for a field trip in 7th grade, lived in SW OKC on May 3rd, and am a hobbyist and storm chaser. I went through the eye of hurricane Laura, I’ve witnessed 20 tornadoes, and I’m flying out to Donner Pass tomorrow morning for the 10 feet of snow this weekend. So it’s not just a passing memory. This was an important moment in my life. I vividly know the environment that was the morning of May 20, 2020. You can not tell me there was not something they saw that morning that completely contradicts everything you and every other meteorologist making videos about it today. They knew that morning that it was in fact a remarkable day, not the other way around. They in fact knew large violent tornadoes in OKC while schools were letting out was likely. Not my words, words from the National Weather Service in Norman. I’ve gone back and watched the videos, I’ve gone back and looked at many social media accounts, and It’s just doesn’t square with the post analysis. I’m not holding that against you, or saying anything negative about you or anyone else. I am just genuinely curious and I bet it would make a great video. Why did everyone in OKC seem to know that morning what was going to happen, but today people say nobody saw it coming?
@@danieljordan9004 The folks at the SPC, whose severe weather info should be trusted first and foremost, had a 10% hatched area out for strong tornadoes all through the event, the lowest probability level for which a hatched area can be added. They mentioned isolated strong tornadoes, nothing about long-track violent tornadoes. The environment was simply not a clear example of a violent tornado environment, as expressed in the video and by SPC forecasters that morning. Gary and Mike warning about violent tornadoes was probably based on "experience" working in Oklahoma for decades, but it likely did not have meteorological backing, as the meteorology was simply not there for violent tornadoes, at least until we could see storms interacting in real time.
the oklahoma medical examiner recognizes 25 victims of the moore may 20, 2013 tornado
I was waiting for this!
I've actually been working on this case for my website. Still lots of work to do with the WRF model.
Can you do the case of study of the April 7 2006 tornado outbreak that happend on a 60 percent day
It's on my list, actually as a "failure mode" case study, as the tornado threat didn't materialize quite as expected.
Does anyone know why F-4 to F5 tornadoes 🌪 in particular have evil looking faces in them? Some very disturbing images the tornadic clouds! Any reasonable answer I would like to hear.
This tornado was BAD. I remember it well & now every time I hear the name Moore I immediately think of this 2013 EF5 tornado & the one of May 3rd 1999. May 3rd, 1999 F5 was & is the most powerful tornado ever recorded on Earth by windspeed. DOW recorded it as 320 + or - in mph. That storm from 1999 scares me to even think tornadoes can become that powerful.
I love watching tres videos on long road trips
Would there be any way for researchers to get a sounding during an event to study the localized jet streaks?
Yes, field soundings are an integral part of most tornado field campaigns.
@@ConvectiveChronicles does NWS archive and publish field soundings?
Unfortunately no
23:44 >280 mph measured windspeed nearly 7 times the 210 mph windspeed measured by the damage survey teams! No wonder why this tornado got an EF5 rating instead of the High-end EF4. For me any EF3+ tornado has the potential for EF5 wind speeds.
I discussed this in my latest case study on the 4-30-24 Hollister, OK tornadic supercell, but delta-v is not an accurate measurement of near-surface wind speeds in tornadoes. Typical practice is to cut delta-v in half, which is rotational velocity. This is a better indicator, although not perfect, of near-surface winds within the vortex.
Hey cool another video!!!
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3:29, why does this di- and convergence happen? It seems not logical. Can someone explain this to me?
There's some complicated math that can explain this, and it helps to have an image to see, but I'll try to explain it in words: north of a jet streak's core is the region of maximum positive vorticity (cyclonic/counterclockwise spin), and south of a jet streak's core is the region of maximum negative vorticity (anticyclonic/clockwise spin). We can simplify the vorticity equation, which is one of the fundamental equations in meteorology, to show that the degree of vorticity advection is directly related to the degree of divergence. You can have two kinds of vorticity advection: negative vorticity advection (NVA), which is when the background flow transports negative vorticity into a region, and positive vorticity advection (PVA), which is when the background flow transports positive vorticity into a region. Assuming west to east flow through the jet streak, as is the case the vast majority of the time, we can determine that in the left exit region, we have strong positive vorticity being advected into the region, which is PVA and thus yields divergence. In the right exit region, strong negative vorticity is being advected into the region, which is NVA and thus yields negative divergence, which is convergence. In the right entrance region, we have higher (more positive vorticity) being advected into a region of lesser vorticity (closer to the max negative vorticity region south of the jet core), which is PVA and thus yields divergence. In the left entrance region, we have lower (more negative vorticity) being advected into a region of higher vorticity (closer to the max positive vorticity region north of the jet core), which is NVA and thus yields convergence.
Hopefully, this helps; I wish I could include an image with this comment, as that would make things a bit easier to understand.
@@ConvectiveChronicles Wow, thanks a lot for the in depth explanation.
@@RafutahOf course! No, it has to do with the curvature in the flow in and around the jet streak.
Uh huh. What Trey just said. I concur. ;-)
new convective chronicles video! wooooo
May God bless Gary England and James Spann.
Awesome
😢😢😢😢
Ahh so a lot like Joplin? Those mergers are a bitch. Awesome for weather nerds, awful for people in the path of them.
If the 2 storms never merge together the Joplin tornado would of never happened.
Yeah, mergers are so important on days with weaker low level shear especially.