✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: public.com/julia ✨ Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only. *A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at public.com/disclosures/bond-account.
@@NoBody11010 Hi there! I make very little money from this channel and work full-time outside of podcasting, so I can create content here. I dream of making a living off the show and paying my producer everything he deserves. He's been with me since day one. Please know that I appreciate your comment and will always welcome criticism. I try to do the channel with integrity. It's why I'm slowly building it and not rushing anything. 💙Julia
The economy benefits those who have managed to invest in various opportunities. However, many people view investing as something too daunting, often feeling hesitant to get involved out of fear. Despite the abundance of opportunities today-whether in commodities, stocks, cryptocurrencies, and more-some still see it as a challenge and shy away from it.
Due to my demanding job, I lack the time to thoroughly assess my investments and analyze individual stocks. Consequently, for the past seven years, I have enlisted the services of a fiduciary who actively manages my portfolio to adapt to the current market conditions. This strategy has allowed me to navigate the financial landscape successfully, making informed decisions on when to buy and sell. Perhaps you should consider a similar approach.
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Sophia Maurine Lanting” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look her up.
A weak dollar can signal an economic downturn, making me to ponder on what are the best possible ways to hedge against inflation, and I've overheard people say inflation is a money-eater thus worried about my savings around $200k
The stock market is a way to hedge against inflation. Most notably amidst recession, investors need to understand where and how to allocate funds to hedge against inflation and still make profits.
in my opinion, the impact of the rise or fall of the U.S. dollar on investments is multi-faceted but learning how to grow your money has never been easier than now that you can explore and experience a truly diverse marketplace passively by using a well-performing portfolio-advisor.
Exactly why i enjoy my day to day market decisions being guided by a portfolio-coach, seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/ analvsis they have, it's near impossible to not outperform, been using a portfolio-coach for over 2years+ and I've netted over 400k.
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’ Carol Vivian Constable” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
I am a little worried about growth projections of funds i kept in a HYSA north of $80k, I aim to avoid FOMO and look at buying at the dips. Am I better off investing into Gold as it seems stocks are a little too unstable right now?
Overall, most traders or investors still think this year would favor stocks, and other equity-based investments over cash-like investments. Don't put all your eggs in one basket; instead, diversify into different asset classes to mitigate risk. If you lack extensive knowledge, consult a financial advisor.
Accurate! asset allocation is crucial with an Experts guidance. I have 850k in equity, 300K cash earning 5.25 interest, 685k in 401k, 250k cash account, 120k in car assets ( paid off cars) Gold and silver bars. age is 48. My advisor helped me realign my portfolio to my risk tolerance and it boomed overtime.
Well explained. Thanks for bringing up the video. Financial education is indeed required for more than 70% of the society in the country as very few are literate on the subject…
Most people think, investing in crypto is all about buying coins and leaving it to rise, come on it takes much analysis to be a successful crypto trader.
Trading without professional guide...Huh I laugh you, because you will remain where you are or even make huge losses that will stop you from trading, this has been one of the biggest problem to new traders
You're right! I have lost a lot trading all by myself without a guide. It's been an uneasy ride for me. Who is your mentor please. how can i reach her i really need help in this bear market now?
The anger is inequality. If his thesis is correct then we're heading to a replay of the French revolution. I think they will crash assets to avoid this from happening.
Just another Crypto shill. He wants everyone to buy crypto in advance of the coming "apocalypse" so HIS investments pay off and he can buy a bigger mansion in the Cayman Islands.
His thesis is that the capitalists won't let that happen, at least for another 6 years. I think he might be right. The power that be don't want to rock the boat, except to slowly but surely debase our purchasing power, like the proverbial frog in the warm water.
Given the persisting global economic crisis, it's essential for individuals to focus on diversifying their income streams independent of governmental reliance. This involves exploring options such as stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the adversity in the economy, now is an opportune moment to contemplate these investment avenues.
The pathway to substantial returns doesn't solely rely on assets with significant movements. Instead, it revolves around effectively managing risk relative to reward. By appropriately sizing your positions and capitalizing on your advantage repeatedly, you can progressively work towards achieving your financial goals. This principle applies across various investment approaches, whether it be long-term investing or day trading.
I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day investment decisions being guided by an advisor, seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using my advisor for over 2years+ and I've netted over 2.8million.
I think this is something I should do, but I've been stalling for a long time now. I don't really know which firm to work with; I feel they are all the same but it seems you’ve got it all worked out with the firm you work with so i surely wouldn’t mind a recommendation.
I definitely share your sentiment about these firms. Finding financial advisors like Jane Nina Pickett who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
This man was hyping cryptos, just before it crashed 60-90% last time. He was even more convincing that time. Let's never forget that. He is incompetent at best or has an agenda at worst.
@@robertgrassick5527 No surprise about thet. Last time, when he was hyping crypto, he was already selling them. In his podcast, we even publicly gloated about selling at top. He is ultimate Pump and shadily Dump King.
Bingo. Let's all take a moment to remember his ridiculous Ether predictions from the last up cycle and his touting of all sort of irresponsible alt-coins. He's entertaining but he thinks squiggles on a chart constitute research and insight.
That is idiotic to assume because the fed lowers rates that house prices will go up. First of all mortgage rates are not dependent on the fed dropping rates, they’re based off the 10 year treasury, which is why mortgages rates did not drop after the fed dropped rates. It was already priced in. It also ignores why the fed is dropping rates (they see unemployment rising), because when unemployment rises house purchases slow. You would also want to look at what else affects the 10 yr treasury. I also think it is dangerous to tell someone to buy a house and just assume your variable rate will go down. You should not make the largest purchase of your life based on a bet.
Not a good guest to have on, Julia. Raoul is little more than a crypto and personal brand grifter. I get you want to have folks on from all walks of life, but Raoul is actually a terrifically unsophisticated voice masquerading as a visionary. And I think (based on reading the comments so far) your audience is thankfully smart enough to sniff that out.
Despite recent rate cuts, I'm concerned about the economy. When people turn to shoplifting groceries instead of luxury items, it's a sign of hardship. Rising prices and stagnant interest rates suggest policymakers aren't addressing inflation honestly. Meanwhile, the wealth gap persists, with some individuals earning staggering incomes - over $400k - while others struggle to make ends meet. Leaves me questioning my own financial decisions. I wish I could achieve that level of financial success, and that's a daunting reality for many.
Very possible! Particularly in this weak market. There are several opportunities to generate excellent returns, but such intricate transactions can only be carried out by seasoned financial experts.
I completely agree! I've made over $1.7 million in three years by following a financial advisor's guide. At first, I was hesitant and watched from the sidelines, trying to figure out when to start. Then my wife recommended a coach, and I decided to give it a try. I'm glad I did! As a little treat for my hard work, I even got to take a trip to the Bahamas last summer
sure .He's known as a Glen Howard Chester '. One of the finest portfolio managers in the field also widely recognized. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with
Very much appreciated, just copied and pasted Glen Howard Chester on the web, easily spotted his consulting page and was able to schedule a call session.
The US economy is already in recession. Now rate cut will ignite inflation. The banks will tighten even more, all consumer and corporate credit lending. This is the beginning of a deflationary period for your assets. Stocks markets will decline, and stock values disappear in a blink of the eye. Businesses will begin layoffs in earnest which will soon be reflected in the unemployment rate and unemployment claims, to further solidify the recession. In fact, Now that the FED cut rates in Sept, it will signify that the Titanic is going under, and it will suck everything down. Retail and housing sales will truly decline as consumer hold off their purchases. The inverted yield curve will then turn positive, but remember, certain assets like stocks and Crypto’s acts as a hedge. Long & short-term trading is generally safer, allowing investors to weather market volatility. I have managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 732k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Seren Wintersun, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
Trading without professional guide... Huh I laugh you, because you will remain where you are or even make huge losses that will stop you from trading, this has been one of the biggest problem to new traders.
A lot of in truths said here,but then again he was a former banker and probably a mouth peice for the central banks. Crypto doesn't have enough history to be the best asset out there. If other governments are buying gold not crypto that tells ya where the value is
For him "no risk" because he knows how to protect his portfolio if we have a flash crash. Retailer don't have this knowledge. We would just panic sell.
Raoul comments that it was crazy to have 5.5% interest rates when inflation is 2.5%. This comment was placed as a teaser at the beginning of the podcast. How is this crazy? Is saving irrelevant in Raoul's economic model? 5.5% after tax might be 4.0%, leaving 1.5% after inflation. That's not great but it seems to be reasonable. Raoul says people need to become risk takers and not save in cash. He's right, but the bigger point is that the government is engaging in financial repression against the people and stealing the value of their savings. I think he should start by explaining the extractive nature of our financial system and describe how savers can protect themselves by becoming prudent investors. I've looked at his website and get the impression that he is using cutting edge strategies. If that's what it takes the majority of the saving and investing public have no chance.
He's got a bunch of circular arguments, all re-inforcing one another, to justify that this is the perfect time for wealth building and nothing can go wrong.
exactly ..nothing can go wrong. Look this guy lives in the cayman islands surrounded by millionaires and billionaires. His advice is skewed to the positive
His thesis is that governments will continue to money print with central banks, because we we are in a doom loop, but all that money printing will go into asset inflation, not necessarily consumer inflation (b/c of AI, abundant energy, aging populations, etc. creating deflationary pressures on commodities and goods). Also, the Fed will provide an asset put that puts a floor on asset prices. The only question then is which asset is the best performing, and his thesis is that crypto first and then tech. But every other asset will go up also, but not as much. I think there will still be business cycles but much more muted. I agree that the recession that occurred after the yield curve uninverted in 2020 really didn't like it would have occurred but for the COVID lock downs. But the Fed ended up pumping the markets, which it would have done had there been a naturally occurring recession to begin with.
The thing to consider is that a lot of people think alike, and some of them have a lot of money. Set his arguments aside and think about the behavior that he uses points to rationalize. He's not the only one singing this tune, but how does the song really go? Too much money chasing too few assets. Now a rich man can only eat so many oranges and eggs, and there is a limit to how many people can afford a tower or sports arena. So where is the next big bang? And the one after that? An economic cycle cannot go up indefinitely, AI or not. So right now we are in that period of a late late cycle and recession isn't being felt yet (although recession cycle equities are pricing it in) and you have the AI game postponing expectations while the musical chairs plays on in the background. So even though the late cycle stocks are being sold on AI dreams, you can see a ton of capital has already moved on to early recession/early cycle equities, and _that_ is the "smart money" in my book. Utillities, Materials, Engineering services, and whatever staples that aren't already overbought. Energy should also do fairly well since people will be travelling more, looking for jobs, moving, making longer commutes. Don't forget to throw some Nintendo and Sony in your Christmas stockings, because Grandma is going to buy all the kids a Nintendo Switch, and they already have a PS5 but you know, games and controllers, faster console refreshes etc...
He's explaining that nothing will be allowed to go wrong for wealthy asset owners, everything is going wrong for everyone else through silent currency debasement/ inflation.
He makes a totally circular argument: he says we can't get inflation but we have 8% inflation per year. He says productivity is low but then goes on to discuss how AI and technology are so rapidly advancing; the entire point of the AI and technology is productivity. Really hard to see him as more than a crypto pumper who tells everyone else that they just don't get it.
Well said, what he is saying is conceptual - the language used fucks it - cause nothing means nothing anymore lol but try to imagine the relativity of the concepts he is talking about
Anyone buying into this crypto lunacy especially Bitcoin I can't take seriously, including Lyn Alden. Unless we go the path of Zimbabwe good luck with your million dollar BTC
Do you like/hold USD? It gets value based on the same thong as BTC....faith! The US is $100T+ in debt that will never get paid back, and you are worried about BTC?
He says inflation is not a problem right now because it's come down. He's living in his own wealth bubble on the cayman. Houses are double what they were just 4 years ago and rising. He seems like thats all good. Quite the narrow mined guy
His main point is that you need to buy non duplicatable assets because the governments around the world and Fed know the name of the game is to pump liquidity as much as possible for as long as possible. People who are living in la la land buying expensive cars and boats and not investing are going to have their wealth evaporate. Real estate is going to keep shooting up in price with the back drop of liquidity injections and watch out when mortgage rates fall again. He even told Julia that. And it doesn’t matter whether he likes it or not, the government has given up on solving problems or isn’t smart enough to other than to print money and buy votes from low information voters that think you can help people by printing money.
@@omnimoeish I get all that but in the end this will cause some kinda of revolution as the bottom 50% will feel the pinch more than ever as inflation for them will be excessive. He kinda missed this point.
@@scottmoering9810He clearly said monetary debasement + asset inflation will disenfranchise half the population and people are angry their old ways of thinking aren’t working. You can’t save everyone - stack sats.
Ok I see this is obvious but the issue is that he thinks people need to be on board with this new way to make money but in reality over 50% of the population can't even save let alone put their money in supposed speculative things the fed is trying to inflate is the problem.
Inflation is down??? It is if you look at 2024 only, how about from 2021 to 2024? I haven't seen a package of bacon go back down to $2.98/package, or gasoline back down to $2.20/gallon, or eggs back down to $1.50/dozen, or buying a new car for $24,000, and I could keep going and going about prices. By the way most people's wages are not keeping up either. Your guest today lives in la la land!
You are describing deflation. Inflation is the rate of change of prices, which is down over the last couple years. Inflation going down means prices increase at a lower rate. Does not mean prices go down. The system is designed for inflation to stay at 2% ideally per the FED which means prices in dollar terms always go up. Higher inflation means they are going up faster.
Raoul says the picture is crystal clear to him but he keeps contradicting himself. E.g. He says inflation is imaginary (WTF) and impossible under the current demographic/fiscal situation but acknowledges that high yield rates were needed to control inflation... He's also so brainwashed about AI, it's funny.
Problem is, when you lower interest rates, people borrow more, instead of paying down debt and then when rates eventually go up, they’re even more in debt.
Great discussion and excellent perspectives from Raoul. Forming a broader view of current monetary and assets inflation driven by fiat money liquidity and debasement game similar to argumentation from Michael Howell (of CrossBorder Capital) and Luke Gromen (of FFTT). Probably most of the central banks as well who are busy stocking up Gold.
I lost over $80k when everything started to tank. Not because I was in an exchange that went belly up. I was just stupid to hold and because that's what everyone said. I'm still responsible. It just taught me to be a better investor now that I understand more of what could go wrong. It took me over two years of being in the market, I'm really grateful I found one source to recover my money, at least $10k profits weekly. Thanks Brittany Utley
Wow. I'm a bit perplexed seeing her been mentioned here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, I'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.
Julia, so sad to see many of your ardent followers cannot understand what's in this video, least of all what's in front of them. Ponder this statement for example : inflation can simultaneously exist during systemic deflation. If you really want a good enlightening discussion, drop me a pm
He had me hook line and sinker until he said electricity will drop 50% in 6-8years-it would be nice for my family because it is a large irrigation expense on my farm-my net worth against his, that he is wrong about electricity
You can make money out of natural resources, robots can’t make anything without materials and if we are making more things the more commodities we will need surely
“They” are wrong about inflation because “they” really mean inflation + debasement. “They” are always suggesting official price inflation is not accurate as a result. The message is clear you need to be a holder of real assets, equities , PM’s etc, because through time all fiat currency has been debased. The big problem, I think, is societal, those that understand get richer those that do not (the majority) get poorer, eventually that has to break down.
I just occurred to me that even though Bitcoin is theoretically counter-inflationary, it is in *actuality* quite inflationary in the long run. Simple supply and demand economics, right? 10 years ago $600 USD bought you a bitcoin, today you need $60,000 USD to buy the same useless bitcoin. That is like 10,000% inflation. Good thing Bitcoin isn't a part of the consumer price index or we would never be able to afford a loan without holding a crypto wallet... and we know how secure _those_ are.
Bitcoin’s inflation rate sits at about 1.5% currently and will continue to decrease over time. You’re pairing btc with an inflationary currency (the dollar) so of course btc price will continue to rise against it. And yes, there is only a small supply with demand for it ramping up.
I see. We can go on shifting wealth from the working classes to Wall Street and profit from rising asset values and free electricity forever. What could go wrong?
So we cant have inflation, it wont happen, but we can have currency debasement of 8% a year.... What is the difference between inflation and currency debasement?
You can have debasement plus deflation. So nominal increases in USD from debasement but markets are able to produce more than before. This causes major growth in assets (like growth and tech stocks), but wages don't keep up. If there was major inflation and debassement then you get major growth in value stocks and commodities.
As much as the commenters seem to dislike this guest (bots?), his trend forecasting of technological advancements has been spot on for the past few years.
On Raoul's point about wage growth vs asset growth This will amaze you: Since 1971, it went from taking ~20hrs of work at the average job (to own 1 share of the SPX) to now, as of 2024, *185 hours* at the average job to own 1 share of the SPX This is called financialization, and it must end.
The entire currency debasement thesis is spot on. This scenario has been unfolding since 1971, when central banks and governments realized they could create liquidity without serious economic or political consequence under a floating fiat currency regime. Before then, economic fundamentals provided a hard constraint, now there is only a loose connection between economic fundamentals and markets. I call this money illusion that allows governments to debase their currency, let the exchange rate float, and maintain political order as their populations are deceived by the divergence of nominal and real values. Asset (not necessarily CPI) inflation is indicative. This has allowed govts to stealth tax their populations so now citizens work harder and longer for less to compensate for monetary and fiscal mismanagement. The "Everything Code" will work and continue to operate until it doesn't and we don't really know where that cliff is, so it is smart to play the market for real assets, diversify asset portfolios, and not overly worry about the reckoning. However, the futurist vision of an economic singularity is problematic. Reminds me of the promise of the 1960s that we'd all have personal flying jetpacks by 2000 and be living like the Jetsons. The problem is the age-old one of distribution. The game of Monopoly is instructive: success and leverage concentrate the distribution of returns until one player owns everything. That ends the game. It's a finite game because there's no longer any basis for exchange, no market among players, no economy. An economic singularity must be an infinite game, not a finite game. Thus the distribution of returns, product, success, etc. must be flatter to keep the game going. If AI robots produce everything we need, what matters most is who owns and controls the robots. In order to consume one has to produce - it's a circular flow system. This is a profound reality of macroeconomics. Markets concentrate the returns to success and debt leverages that. This is the core genesis of the business cycle. The consequence of the Everything Code is inequality. The asset richer get richer and the poor get subsidized and the middle class gets hollowed out. That leads to political crisis. This will be the unpredictable messiness of any move toward economic singularity. Thanks for the discussion - good interviewee.
FABULOUS !!! Julia //Raoul ...sounds like the responsible savers are getting hurt// in this environment causing everyone to become risk takers. debasement for those in heavy irresponsible debt but for us regular folks we want a return on our dollars in the bank on real dollars earned and real value for goods and services produced that maximize capital resources.... loaned out as for those who put the dollar that was earned into real assets and real productivity goods and services. which means free market efficient use of capital resources. But Between the government spending and the central banks and financial system they have really screwed this up. Julia this episode gets into many of the backside details of some of the inner workings of the economics we are facing GREAT episode and WONDERFUL discussion
I want Raoul to do work on the mining problem that limits infinite growth of AI and Robots. We will need 10-15 years to fix our mining deficits, the silver deficit will limit Solar, Uranium deficit will limit Nuclear, copper deficit will limit grid expansion, this can be solved, but Chang in mining is slow and a major component is political that AI doesn’t fix
This has got to be one of THE most rational & reasonable discussions, or explanations, of what we’re experiencing. Is anybody else getting tired of hearing that the sky is falling? Thank you for your time and your videos, Julia.
This only works while you have boomers... or the ability to build wealth in the system... all that is am leaving, and there is going to be a horrific tipping point
Yolo in ai!!!!! weeeee!!! This guy needs to be in Hollywood. Quite the storyteller. Of course, I'm jealous I didn't yolo into bitcoin and TQQQ or NVDA during covid crash. I suck! lol!
the only problem with his idea going forward is this: what if the Fed loses control of the bond market? So far, the bond market is not following the Fed's lead. Rates have jumped after the 50bp cut. If this happens to continue, what then?
Optimism - it's just a conscious or unconscious decision or predisposition, UNLESS you see a pattern like Raoul has that shows cyclicality where in certain seasons, number go up, and in others, number go down, predictably. 2 occurences could just be a coincidence, 3 is already a pattern and too statistically unlikely to be random.
RE: 22:50 - I disagree that the bond market can't fall apart because the Fed can buy it. Although the Fed can control the short end through money printing, they cannot control the long end. If it looks like the currency will be worthless, people will demand higher and higher interest rates to hold the long end or people won't buy it at all. If it was that easy, no reason to collect taxes. Just issue treasuries to fund reckless government spending.
Don’t kid yourself. AI is so useful and quick that it’s taking jobs left and right. Business “needs” AI to do things for almost free like graphic design, copywriting,language translation, programming, customer service, accounting, etc. Hold on while we hear the sucking sound of our jobs getting vacuumed up by AI.
@@GaltsG yep, just like self driving cars were going to take over. It's the new amazing thing we don't really need. It is a meme. Every CEO has to talk the talk or lose his job.
@GaltsG Then maybe we humans can get on to more things that need attention. As of now we don't have time to take care of our things, our bodies ,our family or ourselves because we work too long of hours too keep up. Well most of us anyway, seems a few people of working age in my neighborhood have every day off.
@@chasejones8302 It's a meme that is taking my job and my business. So yeah, this AI is useful enough to start taking translation and illustration jobs. No one cares if the quality isn't exactly "human" level.
I think he is right about being optimistic about the future. But I am not so sure about taking on high risk assets as a general reco as he suggested, which can be catastrophic for certain people ...
Savings and Investments are measured relative to yield. Assets rise and fall. Sometimes it can be unnerving in volatile spots. The part to stay focused on is that yield and prices on debt/bonds are inversely related. Your home is not worth what you paid for it. It is worth what someone can borrow to buy it from you. Inflation has effectively become a ghost. It is hiding everywhere. The government calls it Sticky. Crashes happen. The question is "Can you stand it" Investment banks like Blackrock Goldman Sachs are on both sides of the field. In their book it is called VAR. Value At Risk. For the rest of us its them in a super yacht and we are in a rowboat. Cheers.
absolutely. wealth is a phantom b/c we all mark to market our wealth in assets based on the "market price", which is the price of the last sale of that asset. But everyone cannot convert their asset into cash at that price, and if they tried it would drive the price to zero. Asset wealth is a phantom, but unfortunately cash value is a mirage due to monetary debasement. We are between a rock and a hard place literally. I think the only solution is to be agile in the market, watch asset prices like a hawk, and be alert to convert into cash when needed to avoid painful drawdowns (or hold the asset position if the longer term trend is higher after the drawdown).
Julie Raoul is a very bright man … but in you buying a variable mortgage -i want to point out that the end game is hyperinflation. You are toast if this occurs . What can happen to cause this is war -not nuclear war as we are all dead then but - . Do not get a variable mortgage!
i agree! there is not 100% certainty that there will not be resurgance in inflation in the intermediate term even if the long term secular trend is arguably down due to demographics and technology. that's why long term rates rose after the Fed cut ... bond markets are not convinced that the Fed did not reignite inflation. With adjustable rate, you could end up with higher interest payments for a period. I'm going with a fixed mortgage. I could be wrong and there could be lower rates, but I'll just try to pay down my loan as fast as possible.
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. Lock in your 6.6% yield: public.com/julia ✨
Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US Listed and registered securities, options and Bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Public Investing. ETFs, options and Bonds are available to US members only.
*A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Deposits into this account are used to purchase 10 fractional investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The 6.6% yield is the average annualized yield to maturity (YTM) across all ten bonds in the Bond Account, before fees, as of 9/18/2024. A bond’s yield is a function of its market price, which can fluctuate, and a bond’s YTM is “locked in” when the bond is purchased. Your yield at time of purchase may be different from the yield shown here. The “locked in” YTM is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTM of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity, or if the issuer calls or defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, we cannot know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or how much they will decline. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. Fractional Bonds also carry risks including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk, and potential tax liabilities. Read more about the risks associated with fixed income and fractional bonds and learn more about the Bond Account at public.com/disclosures/bond-account.
@@NoBody11010 Hi there! I make very little money from this channel and work full-time outside of podcasting, so I can create content here. I dream of making a living off the show and paying my producer everything he deserves. He's been with me since day one. Please know that I appreciate your comment and will always welcome criticism. I try to do the channel with integrity. It's why I'm slowly building it and not rushing anything. 💙Julia
@@TheJuliaLaRocheShowI enjoy your content very much, thanks again!
Could you please invite Russell Napier and Simon Mikhailovich, take care!
@@alanmrsic893 working on Russell this fall 🙏💙
Your interviews are always fun and so thought provoking. Thank you Julia LaRoche!
The economy benefits those who have managed to invest in various opportunities. However, many people view investing as something too daunting, often feeling hesitant to get involved out of fear. Despite the abundance of opportunities today-whether in commodities, stocks, cryptocurrencies, and more-some still see it as a challenge and shy away from it.
In these uncertain times, having a strong grasp of financial management, smart investing, and navigating economic downturns is more crucial than ever.
Due to my demanding job, I lack the time to thoroughly assess my investments and analyze individual stocks. Consequently, for the past seven years, I have enlisted the services of a fiduciary who actively manages my portfolio to adapt to the current market conditions. This strategy has allowed me to navigate the financial landscape successfully, making informed decisions on when to buy and sell. Perhaps you should consider a similar approach.
Can you share details of your advisor? I want to invest my increased cash flow in stocks and alternative assets to achieve my financial goals.
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Sophia Maurine Lanting” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look her up.
I copied her whole name and pasted it into my browser; her website appeared immediately, and her qualifications are excellent; thank you for sharing.
A weak dollar can signal an economic downturn, making me to ponder on what are the best possible ways to hedge against inflation, and I've overheard people say inflation is a money-eater thus worried about my savings around $200k
The stock market is a way to hedge against inflation. Most notably amidst recession, investors need to understand where and how to allocate funds to hedge against inflation and still make profits.
in my opinion, the impact of the rise or fall of the U.S. dollar on investments is multi-faceted but learning how to grow your money has never been easier than now that you can explore and experience a truly diverse marketplace passively by using a well-performing portfolio-advisor.
Exactly why i enjoy my day to day market decisions being guided by a portfolio-coach, seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/ analvsis they have, it's near impossible to not outperform, been using a portfolio-coach for over 2years+ and I've netted over 400k.
How can I reach this adviser of yours? because I'm seeking for a more effective investment approach on my savings?
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’ Carol Vivian Constable” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
I am a little worried about growth projections of funds i kept in a HYSA north of $80k, I aim to avoid FOMO and look at buying at the dips. Am I better off investing into Gold as it seems stocks are a little too unstable right now?
Overall, most traders or investors still think this year would favor stocks, and other equity-based investments over cash-like investments. Don't put all your eggs in one basket; instead, diversify into different asset classes to mitigate risk. If you lack extensive knowledge, consult a financial advisor.
Accurate! asset allocation is crucial with an Experts guidance. I have 850k in equity, 300K cash earning 5.25 interest, 685k in 401k, 250k cash account, 120k in car assets ( paid off cars) Gold and silver bars. age is 48. My advisor helped me realign my portfolio to my risk tolerance and it boomed overtime.
That's incredible. Could you recommend who you work with? I really could use some help at this moment.
Melissa Elise Robinson is the NY-based advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
Wow!! her track record looks really good from what I found online.i just filled the form and scheduled for a call. Thanks to you.
Well explained. Thanks for bringing up the video. Financial education is indeed required for more than 70% of the society in the country as very few are literate on the subject…
Trading in Bitcoin now is the wisest thing to do now especially beginner....
Most people think, investing in crypto is all about buying coins and leaving it to rise, come on it takes much analysis to be a successful crypto trader.
Trading without professional guide...Huh I laugh you, because you will remain where you are or even make huge losses that will stop you from trading, this has been one of the biggest problem to new traders
Honestly I really need help learning to trade. Seeing my portfolio low makes me very sad.
You're right! I have lost a lot trading all by myself without a guide. It's been an uneasy ride for me. Who is your mentor please. how can i reach her i really need help in this bear market now?
I did not buy his bearish shit years ago, and i am not buying his bullish shit............nor subscribing to bsvision
seconded!
The anger is inequality. If his thesis is correct then we're heading to a replay of the French revolution. I think they will crash assets to avoid this from happening.
He did say there are about 6 years. So, the French revolution might come, but he's saying it won't be here until after 2030.
'...different this time..." this guy a crack pot
Just another Crypto shill. He wants everyone to buy crypto in advance of the coming "apocalypse" so HIS investments pay off and he can buy a bigger mansion in the Cayman Islands.
All I heard is that this time is apparently different and we won’t ever have a recession again. I’ll take the other side of that.
Me Too! Rediculous. It don't matter what is wanted from the state, it's what they will get that's coming and they can't stop it.
His thesis is that the capitalists won't let that happen, at least for another 6 years. I think he might be right. The power that be don't want to rock the boat, except to slowly but surely debase our purchasing power, like the proverbial frog in the warm water.
Given the persisting global economic crisis, it's essential for individuals to focus on diversifying their income streams independent of governmental reliance. This involves exploring options such as stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the adversity in the economy, now is an opportune moment to contemplate these investment avenues.
The pathway to substantial returns doesn't solely rely on assets with significant movements. Instead, it revolves around effectively managing risk relative to reward. By appropriately sizing your positions and capitalizing on your advantage repeatedly, you can progressively work towards achieving your financial goals. This principle applies across various investment approaches, whether it be long-term investing or day trading.
I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day investment decisions being guided by an advisor, seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using my advisor for over 2years+ and I've netted over 2.8million.
I think this is something I should do, but I've been stalling for a long time now. I don't really know which firm to work with; I feel they are all the same but it seems you’ve got it all worked out with the firm you work with so i surely wouldn’t mind a recommendation.
I definitely share your sentiment about these firms. Finding financial advisors like Jane Nina Pickett who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
I found her outstanding and excellent resume when I made a research of her full names online. I count it a gift that I went over this remark.
This man was hyping cryptos, just before it crashed 60-90% last time. He was even more convincing that time. Let's never forget that. He is incompetent at best or has an agenda at worst.
Come on you haters , the man lives on a millionaire island among all his millionaire friends 😉
@@robertgrassick5527 No surprise about thet. Last time, when he was hyping crypto, he was already selling them. In his podcast, we even publicly gloated about selling at top. He is ultimate Pump and shadily Dump King.
Bingo. Let's all take a moment to remember his ridiculous Ether predictions from the last up cycle and his touting of all sort of irresponsible alt-coins. He's entertaining but he thinks squiggles on a chart constitute research and insight.
That is idiotic to assume because the fed lowers rates that house prices will go up. First of all mortgage rates are not dependent on the fed dropping rates, they’re based off the 10 year treasury, which is why mortgages rates did not drop after the fed dropped rates. It was already priced in. It also ignores why the fed is dropping rates (they see unemployment rising), because when unemployment rises house purchases slow. You would also want to look at what else affects the 10 yr treasury. I also think it is dangerous to tell someone to buy a house and just assume your variable rate will go down. You should not make the largest purchase of your life based on a bet.
Not a good guest to have on, Julia. Raoul is little more than a crypto and personal brand grifter. I get you want to have folks on from all walks of life, but Raoul is actually a terrifically unsophisticated voice masquerading as a visionary. And I think (based on reading the comments so far) your audience is thankfully smart enough to sniff that out.
Agreed. .mostly word salad
@@LibertarianRFand his constant swearing which he thinks is 'edgy' is just cringey. It makes him look and sound like an immature teenager.
Despite recent rate cuts, I'm concerned about the economy. When people turn to shoplifting groceries instead of luxury items, it's a sign of hardship. Rising prices and stagnant interest rates suggest policymakers aren't addressing inflation honestly. Meanwhile, the wealth gap persists, with some individuals earning staggering incomes - over $400k - while others struggle to make ends meet. Leaves me questioning my own financial decisions. I wish I could achieve that level of financial success, and that's a daunting reality for many.
Very possible! Particularly in this weak market. There are several opportunities to generate excellent returns, but such intricate transactions can only be carried out by seasoned financial experts.
I completely agree! I've made over $1.7 million in three years by following a financial advisor's guide. At first, I was hesitant and watched from the sidelines, trying to figure out when to start. Then my wife recommended a coach, and I decided to give it a try. I'm glad I did! As a little treat for my hard work, I even got to take a trip to the Bahamas last summer
This is exactly how My spouse and i wish to get our finances coordinated ahead of retirement. Can I get access to your advisor?
sure .He's known as a Glen Howard Chester '. One of the finest portfolio managers in the field also widely recognized. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with
Very much appreciated, just copied and pasted Glen Howard Chester on the web, easily spotted his consulting page and was able to schedule a call session.
The US economy is already in recession. Now rate cut will ignite inflation. The banks will tighten even more, all consumer and corporate credit lending. This is the beginning of a deflationary period for your assets. Stocks markets will decline, and stock values disappear in a blink of the eye. Businesses will begin layoffs in earnest which will soon be reflected in the unemployment rate and unemployment claims, to further solidify the recession. In fact, Now that the FED cut rates in Sept, it will signify that the Titanic is going under, and it will suck everything down. Retail and housing sales will truly decline as consumer hold off their purchases. The inverted yield curve will then turn positive, but remember, certain assets like stocks and Crypto’s acts as a hedge. Long & short-term trading is generally safer, allowing investors to weather market volatility. I have managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 732k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Seren Wintersun, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
SHE IS ON TELE GRAM.
@Serenwintersun
Trading without professional guide... Huh I laugh you, because you will remain where you are or even make huge losses that will stop you from trading, this has been one of the biggest problem to new traders.
Productivity is never accidental; it is always the result of careful planning, dedication, and consistency.
I appreciate the professionalism and dedication of the team behind Seren’s trade signal service.
A lot of in truths said here,but then again he was a former banker and probably a mouth peice for the central banks. Crypto doesn't have enough history to be the best asset out there. If other governments are buying gold not crypto that tells ya where the value is
Raol is Wrong. Look at food prices, gas, electricity Insurance inflation is real.
My God , he said the most dangerous words “there is no risk”
Predicting the future based on 16 years (from 2008) historic data is more than foolish :-)
For him "no risk" because he knows how to protect his portfolio if we have a flash crash. Retailer don't have this knowledge. We would just panic sell.
The Crypto cult leader, whose only investment advice is buy on "more cowbell".
Raoul comments that it was crazy to have 5.5% interest rates when inflation is 2.5%. This comment was placed as a teaser at the beginning of the podcast. How is this crazy? Is saving irrelevant in Raoul's economic model? 5.5% after tax might be 4.0%, leaving 1.5% after inflation. That's not great but it seems to be reasonable. Raoul says people need to become risk takers and not save in cash. He's right, but the bigger point is that the government is engaging in financial repression against the people and stealing the value of their savings. I think he should start by explaining the extractive nature of our financial system and describe how savers can protect themselves by becoming prudent investors. I've looked at his website and get the impression that he is using cutting edge strategies. If that's what it takes the majority of the saving and investing public have no chance.
Inflation at 2.5% ?. No. I'm not buying that.
Me either. Blueberries were $8.00 for a pint a few days ago at Walmart. Meat prices are still going up. Eggs $4.00/doz.
He's got a bunch of circular arguments, all re-inforcing one another, to justify that this is the perfect time for wealth building and nothing can go wrong.
exactly ..nothing can go wrong. Look this guy lives in the cayman islands surrounded by millionaires and billionaires. His advice is skewed to the positive
@@scottmoering9810 lesrn more about this scam artist Raoul
His thesis is that governments will continue to money print with central banks, because we we are in a doom loop, but all that money printing will go into asset inflation, not necessarily consumer inflation (b/c of AI, abundant energy, aging populations, etc. creating deflationary pressures on commodities and goods). Also, the Fed will provide an asset put that puts a floor on asset prices. The only question then is which asset is the best performing, and his thesis is that crypto first and then tech. But every other asset will go up also, but not as much. I think there will still be business cycles but much more muted. I agree that the recession that occurred after the yield curve uninverted in 2020 really didn't like it would have occurred but for the COVID lock downs. But the Fed ended up pumping the markets, which it would have done had there been a naturally occurring recession to begin with.
The thing to consider is that a lot of people think alike, and some of them have a lot of money. Set his arguments aside and think about the behavior that he uses points to rationalize. He's not the only one singing this tune, but how does the song really go? Too much money chasing too few assets. Now a rich man can only eat so many oranges and eggs, and there is a limit to how many people can afford a tower or sports arena. So where is the next big bang? And the one after that? An economic cycle cannot go up indefinitely, AI or not. So right now we are in that period of a late late cycle and recession isn't being felt yet (although recession cycle equities are pricing it in) and you have the AI game postponing expectations while the musical chairs plays on in the background. So even though the late cycle stocks are being sold on AI dreams, you can see a ton of capital has already moved on to early recession/early cycle equities, and _that_ is the "smart money" in my book. Utillities, Materials, Engineering services, and whatever staples that aren't already overbought. Energy should also do fairly well since people will be travelling more, looking for jobs, moving, making longer commutes. Don't forget to throw some Nintendo and Sony in your Christmas stockings, because Grandma is going to buy all the kids a Nintendo Switch, and they already have a PS5 but you know, games and controllers, faster console refreshes etc...
He's explaining that nothing will be allowed to go wrong for wealthy asset owners, everything is going wrong for everyone else through silent currency debasement/ inflation.
The rational bear market argument is commercial real estate breaking regional banks.
Almost couldn't tell who the guest was under all the clown makeup
It is pretty much pointless if he's only talked about history and liquidity, when layoffs and unemployment is at an all time high.. "There is no risk"
He makes a totally circular argument: he says we can't get inflation but we have 8% inflation per year. He says productivity is low but then goes on to discuss how AI and technology are so rapidly advancing; the entire point of the AI and technology is productivity.
Really hard to see him as more than a crypto pumper who tells everyone else that they just don't get it.
It's 8% debasement, not 8% inflation. There's a distinct difference. When it clicks, you'll understand
Well said, what he is saying is conceptual - the language used fucks it - cause nothing means nothing anymore lol but try to imagine the relativity of the concepts he is talking about
He did start some crazy talk
Anyone buying into this crypto lunacy especially Bitcoin I can't take seriously, including Lyn Alden. Unless we go the path of Zimbabwe good luck with your million dollar BTC
Do you like/hold USD? It gets value based on the same thong as BTC....faith! The US is $100T+ in debt that will never get paid back, and you are worried about BTC?
2022 shows the risks to his thesis, war and disruptions. And what if bitcoin gets banned?
He says inflation is not a problem right now because it's come down. He's living in his own wealth bubble on the cayman. Houses are double what they were just 4 years ago and rising. He seems like thats all good. Quite the narrow mined guy
His main point is that you need to buy non duplicatable assets because the governments around the world and Fed know the name of the game is to pump liquidity as much as possible for as long as possible. People who are living in la la land buying expensive cars and boats and not investing are going to have their wealth evaporate. Real estate is going to keep shooting up in price with the back drop of liquidity injections and watch out when mortgage rates fall again. He even told Julia that. And it doesn’t matter whether he likes it or not, the government has given up on solving problems or isn’t smart enough to other than to print money and buy votes from low information voters that think you can help people by printing money.
@@omnimoeish I get all that but in the end this will cause some kinda of revolution as the bottom 50% will feel the pinch more than ever as inflation for them will be excessive. He kinda missed this point.
YEP, he likes to STEAL from the savers free market rates to give to Asset Bibble Riders, Speculators and Debtors. !! Mass W Transfers Upward
@@scottmoering9810He clearly said monetary debasement + asset inflation will disenfranchise half the population and people are angry their old ways of thinking aren’t working. You can’t save everyone - stack sats.
Ok I see this is obvious but the issue is that he thinks people need to be on board with this new way to make money but in reality over 50% of the population can't even save let alone put their money in supposed speculative things the fed is trying to inflate is the problem.
Don't bring this 🤡 no more. 🤦🏻♂️
Inflation is down??? It is if you look at 2024 only, how about from 2021 to 2024? I haven't seen a package of bacon go back down to $2.98/package, or gasoline back down to $2.20/gallon, or eggs back down to $1.50/dozen, or buying a new car for $24,000, and I could keep going and going about prices. By the way most people's wages are not keeping up either. Your guest today lives in la la land!
You are describing deflation. Inflation is the rate of change of prices, which is down over the last couple years. Inflation going down means prices increase at a lower rate. Does not mean prices go down. The system is designed for inflation to stay at 2% ideally per the FED which means prices in dollar terms always go up. Higher inflation means they are going up faster.
@@ItsMeTheG Exactly. Well said
RP = NFT narrative peddler = value zero
This guy is high
just remembered why I cant stand listening to him
Raoul says the picture is crystal clear to him but he keeps contradicting himself. E.g. He says inflation is imaginary (WTF) and impossible under the current demographic/fiscal situation but acknowledges that high yield rates were needed to control inflation... He's also so brainwashed about AI, it's funny.
they said the same shit in nov 1999...................such bs
Ya I remember, it was a new pardine, high PE didn't matter, the media said it, then the people said it and convinced themselves it was true.
Been following RP for a long time. Not sure I like the swearing ratcheting up as much as it is.
This guy has drank the coolade. Many of his comments like on inflation buggeman defy reality. Unbelievable!
Lots of salty no coiners in the comments section 😂
Problem is, when you lower interest rates, people borrow more, instead of paying down debt and then when rates eventually go up, they’re even more in debt.
Exactly
Debasement argument is right one !! Government have you by neck and would do more of debasement!!!
Great discussion and excellent perspectives from Raoul. Forming a broader view of current monetary and assets inflation driven by fiat money liquidity and debasement game similar to argumentation from Michael Howell (of CrossBorder Capital) and Luke Gromen (of FFTT). Probably most of the central banks as well who are busy stocking up Gold.
Keep drinkin' that central planner kool-aid!
He called the bottom right in 2022 when everyone was predicting for a larger crash
I lost over $80k when everything started to tank. Not because I was in an exchange that went belly up. I was just stupid to hold and because that's what everyone said. I'm still responsible. It just taught me to be a better investor now that I understand more of what could go wrong. It took me over two years of being in the market, I'm really grateful I found one source to recover my money, at least $10k profits weekly. Thanks Brittany Utley
Wow. I'm a bit perplexed seeing her been mentioned here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, I'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.
The very first time we tried, we invested $2000 and after a week, we received $9500. That really helped us a lot to pay up our bills.
You trade with Brittany Utley too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family.
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?
I was skeptical at first till I decided to try. Its huge returns is awesome. I can't say much.
Julia, so sad to see many of your ardent followers cannot understand what's in this video, least of all what's in front of them. Ponder this statement for example : inflation can simultaneously exist during systemic deflation. If you really want a good enlightening discussion, drop me a pm
He had me hook line and sinker until he said electricity will drop 50% in 6-8years-it would be nice for my family because it is a large irrigation expense on my farm-my net worth against his, that he is wrong about electricity
No corporation owns internet for profit. Only handful of companies own AI. It’s not going to be free.
I love that you do your homework and ask good questions. Good hosting.
You can make money out of natural resources, robots can’t make anything without materials and if we are making more things the more commodities we will need surely
Gold is up 40% in 1Y, so he is lying.
Not to say he isn't right on some analysis, but wasn't he hyping mataverse real estate.
That everything code video changed my perspective on everything… it was like getting unplugged from the matrix 😂
I love that you are a beautiful career journalist … you need more colour to show off your beautiful self.
“They” are wrong about inflation because “they” really mean inflation + debasement. “They” are always suggesting official price inflation is not accurate as a result. The message is clear you need to be a holder of real assets, equities , PM’s etc, because through time all fiat currency has been debased. The big problem, I think, is societal, those that understand get richer those that do not (the majority) get poorer, eventually that has to break down.
I'm only in it for the girl...🥰
Raoul will probably lose it all and Mike Saylor will definitely lose it all
No they will be the first to get out while touting crypto to the unwashed.
Do not use the Lord's name in vain.
I just occurred to me that even though Bitcoin is theoretically counter-inflationary, it is in *actuality* quite inflationary in the long run. Simple supply and demand economics, right? 10 years ago $600 USD bought you a bitcoin, today you need $60,000 USD to buy the same useless bitcoin. That is like 10,000% inflation. Good thing Bitcoin isn't a part of the consumer price index or we would never be able to afford a loan without holding a crypto wallet... and we know how secure _those_ are.
Bitcoin’s inflation rate sits at about 1.5% currently and will continue to decrease over time. You’re pairing btc with an inflationary currency (the dollar) so of course btc price will continue to rise against it. And yes, there is only a small supply with demand for it ramping up.
RUG PULL HAS A FIRM GRASP FOR THE OBVIOUS..................ITS OVER...
Come on, the Bitcoin started at 2018 to be an investment asset. Annual 40% got Bitcoin, Gold took the last year the same!
I see. We can go on shifting wealth from the working classes to Wall Street and profit from rising asset values and free electricity forever. What could go wrong?
2032-2034 just in time for the end of the fourth turning
Lol mortgage rates have gone up since the rate cut, and theyll be going up a lpt more when inflatuon comes back next year
This Time It's Different!
Amazing video
We're gonna make it bros
Hope there is enough space on that small island for us all lol :-)
So we cant have inflation, it wont happen, but we can have currency debasement of 8% a year.... What is the difference between inflation and currency debasement?
Exactly what I was thinking. He's contradicting himself and giving Boomer Advice.
You can have debasement plus deflation. So nominal increases in USD from debasement but markets are able to produce more than before.
This causes major growth in assets (like growth and tech stocks), but wages don't keep up.
If there was major inflation and debassement then you get major growth in value stocks and commodities.
@@thomaslynch5150 markets don’t “produce” things.. companies and people do.
As much as the commenters seem to dislike this guest (bots?), his trend forecasting of technological advancements has been spot on for the past few years.
On Raoul's point about wage growth vs asset growth
This will amaze you: Since 1971, it went from taking ~20hrs of work at the average job (to own 1 share of the SPX) to now, as of 2024, *185 hours* at the average job to own 1 share of the SPX
This is called financialization, and it must end.
The entire currency debasement thesis is spot on. This scenario has been unfolding since 1971, when central banks and governments realized they could create liquidity without serious economic or political consequence under a floating fiat currency regime. Before then, economic fundamentals provided a hard constraint, now there is only a loose connection between economic fundamentals and markets. I call this money illusion that allows governments to debase their currency, let the exchange rate float, and maintain political order as their populations are deceived by the divergence of nominal and real values. Asset (not necessarily CPI) inflation is indicative. This has allowed govts to stealth tax their populations so now citizens work harder and longer for less to compensate for monetary and fiscal mismanagement. The "Everything Code" will work and continue to operate until it doesn't and we don't really know where that cliff is, so it is smart to play the market for real assets, diversify asset portfolios, and not overly worry about the reckoning.
However, the futurist vision of an economic singularity is problematic. Reminds me of the promise of the 1960s that we'd all have personal flying jetpacks by 2000 and be living like the Jetsons. The problem is the age-old one of distribution. The game of Monopoly is instructive: success and leverage concentrate the distribution of returns until one player owns everything. That ends the game. It's a finite game because there's no longer any basis for exchange, no market among players, no economy. An economic singularity must be an infinite game, not a finite game. Thus the distribution of returns, product, success, etc. must be flatter to keep the game going. If AI robots produce everything we need, what matters most is who owns and controls the robots. In order to consume one has to produce - it's a circular flow system. This is a profound reality of macroeconomics. Markets concentrate the returns to success and debt leverages that. This is the core genesis of the business cycle. The consequence of the Everything Code is inequality. The asset richer get richer and the poor get subsidized and the middle class gets hollowed out. That leads to political crisis. This will be the unpredictable messiness of any move toward economic singularity. Thanks for the discussion - good interviewee.
Thought I just read that we finally have developed nuclear fusion?!!!
If so, doesn't that mean UNLIMITED power/electricity ?!!!
Crypto fanantic !
Some put on their rose colored glasses and ignore history. Not everything is financial when you have power and politics involved.
FABULOUS !!! Julia //Raoul ...sounds like the responsible savers are getting hurt// in this environment causing everyone to become risk takers. debasement for those in heavy irresponsible debt but for us regular folks we want a return on our dollars in the bank on real dollars earned and real value for goods and services produced that maximize capital resources.... loaned out as for those who put the dollar that was earned into real assets and real productivity goods and services. which means free market efficient use of capital resources. But Between the government spending and the central banks and financial system they have really screwed this up. Julia this episode gets into many of the backside details of some of the inner workings of the economics we are facing GREAT episode and WONDERFUL discussion
I want Raoul to do work on the mining problem that limits infinite growth of AI and Robots. We will need 10-15 years to fix our mining deficits, the silver deficit will limit Solar, Uranium deficit will limit Nuclear, copper deficit will limit grid expansion, this can be solved, but Chang in mining is slow and a major component is political that AI doesn’t fix
The end game is.....most ppl wont be able to afford AI gadgets in their life....sorry for the bad profit news..
This has got to be one of THE most rational & reasonable discussions, or explanations, of what we’re experiencing. Is anybody else getting tired of hearing that the sky is falling? Thank you for your time and your videos, Julia.
People should lean not to barrow miney from Banksters...
This only works while you have boomers... or the ability to build wealth in the system... all that is am leaving, and there is going to be a horrific tipping point
The AI projections sound nice, but what happens to all the useless eaters, MMT, or war, perhaps?
Yolo in ai!!!!! weeeee!!! This guy needs to be in Hollywood. Quite the storyteller. Of course, I'm jealous I didn't yolo into bitcoin and TQQQ or NVDA during covid crash. I suck! lol!
the only problem with his idea going forward is this: what if the Fed loses control of the bond market? So far, the bond market is not following the Fed's lead. Rates have jumped after the 50bp cut. If this happens to continue, what then?
Fascinating discussion with Raoul Pal! The economic singularity might be closer than we think.
Next guest please.
Optimism - it's just a conscious or unconscious decision or predisposition, UNLESS you see a pattern like Raoul has that shows cyclicality where in certain seasons, number go up, and in others, number go down, predictably. 2 occurences could just be a coincidence, 3 is already a pattern and too statistically unlikely to be random.
Excellent interview with the Master.
Solid amount of ego in this thread. Drop your pride and hubris....make money.
RE: 22:50 - I disagree that the bond market can't fall apart because the Fed can buy it. Although the Fed can control the short end through money printing, they cannot control the long end. If it looks like the currency will be worthless, people will demand higher and higher interest rates to hold the long end or people won't buy it at all. If it was that easy, no reason to collect taxes. Just issue treasuries to fund reckless government spending.
The biggest tell that these guys have no idea what they are talking about is their take on AI. It's the amazing thing that nobody needs.
Don’t kid yourself. AI is so useful and quick that it’s taking jobs left and right. Business “needs” AI to do things for almost free like graphic design, copywriting,language translation, programming, customer service, accounting, etc. Hold on while we hear the sucking sound of our jobs getting vacuumed up by AI.
@@GaltsG yep, just like self driving cars were going to take over. It's the new amazing thing we don't really need.
It is a meme. Every CEO has to talk the talk or lose his job.
Sounds just like the folks that were talking about computers way back. "We probably only need 3 or 4 of them per country " 😂
@GaltsG
Then maybe we humans can get on to more things that need attention. As of now we don't have time to take care of our things, our bodies ,our family or ourselves because we work too long of hours too keep up. Well most of us anyway, seems a few people of working age in my neighborhood have every day off.
@@chasejones8302 It's a meme that is taking my job and my business. So yeah, this AI is useful enough to start taking translation and illustration jobs. No one cares if the quality isn't exactly "human" level.
I think he is right about being optimistic about the future. But I am not so sure about taking on high risk assets as a general reco as he suggested, which can be catastrophic for certain people ...
Savings and Investments are measured relative to yield. Assets rise and fall. Sometimes it can be unnerving in volatile spots. The part to stay focused on is that yield and prices on debt/bonds are inversely related. Your home is not worth what you paid for it. It is worth what someone can borrow to buy it from you. Inflation has effectively become a ghost. It is hiding everywhere. The government calls it Sticky. Crashes happen. The question is "Can you stand it" Investment banks like Blackrock Goldman Sachs are on both sides of the field. In their book it is called VAR. Value At Risk. For the rest of us its them in a super yacht and we are in a rowboat. Cheers.
absolutely. wealth is a phantom b/c we all mark to market our wealth in assets based on the "market price", which is the price of the last sale of that asset. But everyone cannot convert their asset into cash at that price, and if they tried it would drive the price to zero. Asset wealth is a phantom, but unfortunately cash value is a mirage due to monetary debasement. We are between a rock and a hard place literally. I think the only solution is to be agile in the market, watch asset prices like a hawk, and be alert to convert into cash when needed to avoid painful drawdowns (or hold the asset position if the longer term trend is higher after the drawdown).
makes no sense. "we can't generate inflation" and "Rates were too restrictive", but also we are going to debase our currency in to nothing.
Julie Raoul is a very bright man … but in you buying a variable mortgage -i want to point out that the end game is hyperinflation. You are toast if this occurs . What can happen to cause this is war -not nuclear war as we are all dead then but - . Do not get a variable mortgage!
i agree! there is not 100% certainty that there will not be resurgance in inflation in the intermediate term even if the long term secular trend is arguably down due to demographics and technology. that's why long term rates rose after the Fed cut ... bond markets are not convinced that the Fed did not reignite inflation. With adjustable rate, you could end up with higher interest payments for a period. I'm going with a fixed mortgage. I could be wrong and there could be lower rates, but I'll just try to pay down my loan as fast as possible.
Two syllables to describe Raoul: Buffoon
Is Julia related to Lyndon La Roche?
As always...Raoul on fuckin point💥
Julie, Don't listen to Raoul, just marry a multi millionaire.😂
Great stuff guys 😉 Julia a great listener, and raul for his vision 😀
He was praising CBDC in another video.