What are your thoughts on Michael's analysis? If China has implemented such a massive stimulus package does this not mean things are much worse in China then anyone knows? China has the 2nd largest economy in the world representing 20% of global GDP. The implications for the rest of the world are significant.
China’s dilemma is how to grow its middle class while keeping cost of living under control. High cost of living drives up labour costs and render export industries uncompetitive (as in the West in general). Housing, being the biggest driver of inflation, is the reason behind the government’s deliberate popping of the property bubble.
The Chinese economy is in a meaningful recession but this is a positive and not a negative for the rest of the world. The main impact of China on the rest of the world is as a seller of labor and industrial capacity. The impact that China has as a commodity and technology importer is much smaller. When China has a recession the main effect for rest of the world is that more labor and industrial capacity is for sale for cheaper. That improves the terms of trade for the rest of the world and makes them richer. The loss of Commodity and Technology income generated by selling to China is also there but this is a much smaller secondary effect.
@@davidlai399 Can we please stop talking non-sense in circles? China is experiencing deflation at the moment and before that had many decades of consistent low inflation. Standards of living weren't falling but rising dramatically every year (nominal wage growth of 8-10%, inflation of 2%) and now with the recent deflation, standards of living are at worse flat (housing prices have fallen far more than incomes). I've also never heard of export industries losing competitiveness as their sales keep increasing every years? The only thing we can see from the export figures is that they get bigger every year and the composition keep shifting from soft industrial to heavy industrial and high tech goods.
It’s the first time in years they’ve made such aggressive moves. With the world's second-largest economy doing this and the U.S. also having cut interest rates not long ago, I’m curious-what do you think the implications will be for the global economy?
Well, lower interest rates usually mean more liquidity in the economy. China's rate cut could stimulate borrowing, investing, and consumer spending there
It could also potentially push up commodity prices, as China is a huge consumer of things like oil and metals. That could be positive for countries that export to China, like Australia or Brazil.
On a global scale, China's move could encourage more trade activity, especially with its trading partners. But on the flip side, some economies might feel more pressure. For example, if China’s economy is still sluggish after this move, it could signal deeper structural problems, and other economies could be dragged down by reduced demand from China
It’s possible. With China and the U.S. both cutting rates, global liquidity increases, which could help ease the pressure on economies that are on the brink of recession. But at the same time, it can lead to more inflationary pressures down the road if the extra money circulating starts pushing prices up
Terrific interview - I really like Michael's clarity and focus on liquidity. He gets into the weeds of the system, but in a way that even I can understand. Good questions, excellent guest. Nice :)
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! Yes it is undergoing some issues especially with regard to debt and deficits but it is still the largest and strongest economy in the world.
Don't tell me about precious metals. I tried to sell my silver coins and was offered HALF. I was told I will be paying tax on the rest. Precious metals don't pay interest, aren't insured by FDIC. I asked about the value of my gold jewelry. I was offered HALF of the scrap value. Basically 1/4 of what the 14k jewelry cost. Diamonds aren't worth crap. Good luck getting 1/4 for those. The jeweler never mentions the flaws in the stones until you show up wanting to sell. Then the stone has flaws!
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment Larry and for taking the time to view our content! I have also had the same issues with coins. This is why I stick to ETFs.
@@BloorStreetCapital How confusing! At various times I think about buying physical gold but it's a headache to manage securely, and some sellers want cash. Ridiculous. All I know is no matter how much research you do, something will happen out of left field and then things go in an unexpected direction/take longer than you thought at first/ have unexpected knock-on effects. All you can do is try to hedge. ETFs do take a lot of risk analysis out of the equation. I have shares in gold exploration companies in Australia and intend to keep them.. There are risks with exploration stocks but this can only really be dealt with by risk analysis reading widely and asking a lot of questions. Overall it seems clear things are going to be shaken up considerably, but I just watched the guy who wrote the 4th Turning and he says we don't know what will happen with ETFs when things start unravelling. This guy Michael Howell is very articulate, has an expansive mind and thinks rapidly. A perfect interview subject.
The bottom has fallen out of the diamond market due to artificially created diamonds. I feel like every second channel is promoting some gold seller with bars, bullion or coins. It seems like a load of hype. IDK, just hedge? If you hang onto what you have when prices do go ballistic you will get the benefit? See also my comment below in reply to Jimmy Connor.
If you want to diversify out of only owning stocks and bonds, wait for a metal that is used to actually build infrastructure and useful products to plummet in price. When it’s something that everyone “knows” not to invest in, and the highest cost of production miners of that metal are halting production due to it being unprofitable… then consider stepping in. Then wait a couple years or however long til a spike. And since it’s ultra cyclical, get out.
Btw, US has printed so much money that it boosted the US stock market, do you really think most of the company listed in US stock market is worth that much money? Good luck!
Do you actually know how money is created? It's not by printing money! QE is the closest thing to printing money but we haven't exactly done that since March 2020
@@bklm1234there’s the slow and steady money creation of banks giving out normal loans. Borrowing money that didn’t previously exist but suddenly you’re buying a house with it. Fractional reserve banking is weird
haha u have no idea how much money China had been printing during the covid. just check the M2 supply from China since 2020 . If you understand what M2 stands for
I don't understand why he had mentioned that the Chinese real exchange rate is "way way to high".. meaning the yuan is over valued, and why would the government want an over valued currency as they rely heavily on export? this would imply that there is more purchasing power but would not benefit domestic spending in any case.
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! If there is anyone else you would like to see interviewed, please let us know.
It's probably being propped up so the Chinese can buy food and other imports. It is an essential part of the unofficial social contract with the people that the CCP will perform politics away from scrutiny, if the people are increasing wealth. Recent times have challenged this and people are becoming restless. In order to maintain social stability (hold off from rioting and other rebellions) the government must at an absolute minimum, provide cheap food. China is highly dependent on food exports it's a long way from being self sufficient. A high currency might also help with international borrowing IDK but logic says a higher currency means you don't have to pay as much for borrowings in another currency? Traditionally China liked to have a low currency as this gave them a comparative advantage with exports competing on international domestic markets. Just some ideas.
@@deborahcurtis1385 another argument is that due to some of the exports that are essentials for the importing country, even if currency were over valued it won't dramatically affect its export competitiveness.
@@jazzbeats8168 Yes it all turns on the facts. But China's situation has radically altered and it's not in the position it once was. It still has to feed an increasingly restive population. The readjustments taking place now are very painful indeed and the corruption continues. They're slow to learn about the benefits of transparency and accountability.
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! If there is anyone else you would like to see interviewed, please let us know.
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment Carol and for taking the time to view our content! If there is anyone else you would like to see interviewed, please let us know.
Jimmy, thank you for the video. I'd like to know more about a possible Chinese deval. Brent Johnson, Michael Howell have talked about this often but what are the implications? Thank you-
I have been living and working in China for about 10 years. I have about $300,000 in yuan savings in the Bank of China. What do you suggest I do with that money? I am afraid that the Yuan will devalue and lose its value. Should I withdraw the money to Europe and exchange it for Euros? Or maybe buying gold or stocks is a better solution? At the moment, apartments are also quite cheap in China and maybe that is not a bad option, but I don't know what will happen with the price of apartments in the future in China. Thanks in advance for your reply
China had a 1.4 bn population the stimulus is still small compared to the USA 36 trillions of printed paper money. Their economy rate is 5% or more with this stimulus the rate could go up to 6% or more.
Oh, this is the same guy I recently listened to on the Library of Mistakes. That's street cred right there! His book, Capital Wars, is definitely on my reading list.
Michael made some very, very good & interesting points, excellent analysis as always. Particularly, ‘intensive’/‘extensive’ way of thinking about BTC (which incidentally also applies to Gold); the debt maturity ‘wall’ likely to begin end of 20205; the increasing allocation of capital to refinancing debt rather than (new) businesses and growth; Yellen’s shortening of the maturity (with the obvious funding implications); and finally the possible new unofficial ‘Plaza Accord’.
Unfortunately we may have too many electric cars because the world of NATIO does not have the electrical infrastructure to handle everyone plugging in. The example California government told the people do not plug in during the day. So travel to 7pm & hold your vacation till 6am.
BS at the best. China just needs to be a better investment opportunity than any other western country and the funding will flow in. Currently it is hence the rise in Markets. It is way ahead in terms of being a good investment since prices are so low. The US in comparison is in a terrible state. China doesn’t want to be printing money like the US.
There is just so much vacillating and back and forth between bearish and bullish perspectives the last month or so. The see-saw effect. Historically high valuations ( and pick your metric ) have always been followed by significant trouble. There is nothing special about these economic times , including AI hype and exuberance , that makes it any different. We are likely headed for a ‘ Fourth Turning’ economic event --and likely soon. There is zero doubt IMO that a NASDAQ sell off of consequence is coming.
Thanks for the detailed analysis! I love hearing the commentary of our viewers. I think we are at an inflection point and that’s why so many different opinions. The next few months will be so interesting!
The west unfortunately was outcompeted by china in most of industries,actually will ended up in almost all industries sooner or later,no matter how hard the west close their markets - don't forget the west only cover about 13% population globally. The rest huge part of global market is so so potential for developing,and that's the bigger part of future Financial advantages of USD are just not enough to win this bigger part of future but industrial capabilities do
Just visited China. The price there is very reasonable especially food price. 7 times less cost to get the similar food than in US. So what's the reason to devalue the currency?
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment/question and for taking the time to view our content! The cheaper the currency the cheaper the goods to export.
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment Peter and for taking the time to view our content! If there is anyone else you would like to see interviewed, please let us know.
Majority of Chinese household wealth is about 70% in their property, so Chinese government stimulus is gear towards Chinese property owner whereas Western stimulus in 2008 benefit the banks and they let the property crash so Americans lost all the wealth. Michael analysis is bias and he has no idea how wealthy China CNB is and he is giving his comment on China who is number 1 in export in almost everything. In short if China economy is bad then the rest of the world is disasterous. The Western politicians kept using their stupid theory that criticise China for over production, and we won’t be like Japan because we are not as stupid as Japan to follow Western rules. China spend their money I. Their economy while the Western politicians spend their money to fuel for wars which does not benefit ordinary western people but for the corrupt politicians and the weapon chain manufacturers.
I've been working and living in both Australia and China for 40 years, I'm getting a little bit sick and tired of many western economists, perhaps majority of them in dead earnest way to discuss, analyse and predict upcoming or ongoing collapsing of China's economy for the last 40 years for Christ sake! And look back, the China's economy grew stronger and stronger year by year, no wonder Chinese netizens jokingly called them were the agents from the bureau of strategic captivation who secretly worked for China. What knowledge they really lack of beside prejudice and arrogance? Aren't they ashamed by so many years of their failures?!
The downfall of Japanese economy was real estate bubble, so was Greek economy. So far the CCP has created a new bubble to cover up the old bubbles. It question of time how long&big the bubble can last. However China is in deflation in the last 1 year, it can sure print some fiat money to push inflation??
The thing is that they say so being people involved in the financial market. And so don't understand what the stimulus is a long term economic strategy. And not to please these financial hawks.
China's 1 trillion yuan stimulus is nothing compared to what is required. This money will not last more than a week. China needs something like 50trillion RMB stimulus per year to make right amount of shift. Economy is three times larger than what it was in 2008. Even at that time, china provided a stimulus of 5tn RMB.
What are you talking about,.. he's absolutely spot on. The insane unnecessary unprecedented deficits are causing an exponential rise in liquidity and inflation. What's a time tested hedge against inflation caused by a government stealing from tax payers and spending like drunken sailors? Gold, hard assets,...
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment/question and for taking the time to view our content! That's a great point and when you can choose between the US and Europe or the US and China, I will take the US 100% of the time
I have been living and working in China for about 10 years. I have about $300,000 in yuan savings in the Bank of China. What do you suggest I do with that money? I am afraid that the Yuan will devalue and lose its value. Should I withdraw the money to Europe and exchange it for Euros? Or maybe buying gold or stocks is a better solution? At the moment, apartments are also quite cheap in China and maybe that is not a bad option, but I don't know what will happen with the price of apartments in the future in China. Thanks in advance for your reply
Thanks for the comment/question and for taking the time to view our content! Unfortunately this is not something I can answer. I would suggest seeking a financial advisor who can better assess your risk profile.
price of apartments is too reliant on location and whether or not they can generate money stream by rental. i don't see how euros will do well in the near future. i wouldn't be worried about devaluation of yuan -- currency worth is pinned relative to other currencies, china might have its problems, but i don't see how they are disastrous compared to the majority of other countries.
Thanks Jimmy and Michael! I agree with you no one knows whats is going on in China but I think these policy changes signifies how bad things are there. Its another financial pandemic and its out of control. I agree with Michaels assessment on gold and bitcoin. JUST BUY!!!!
there's only liquidity if the money is being spent and why would you spend it if everything around you tells you your nation is headed towards deflation without a significant social safety net
it was never that ppl had enough happy and rich life and joined a war, it was the war quickly switching the major problems or focus from dealing w poverty to conflicts by nationalism
It's China and the European EU it started in Germany in trade settlements next 50 years The United States dominance has come to trade their relationship is totally different. Like Germany will start. It'll be good and I would suggest moving to Europe it is different and isn't decided by the United States and The world currency and tariffs. They have a different relationship that isn't American has Rome in it
ha-ha, Foo is a complete clown. Michael Pettis is a genuine china expert working in China. Love Sachs but he knows sweet fa about China compared to Pettis.
@@BloorStreetCapital - SEAN FOO and ANDY SCHECTMAN - 27 SEPT ua-cam.com/video/E_IMWfgFwZg/v-deo.html Andy Schectman is an American entrepreneur, the co-founder of Franklin Miles Co., he's the CEO of the precious metals company with $billions sales turnover, with over 35 years in this field. Very logical explanation by Schectman, factual based!
Wait did this guy just say (6:00) that China must either stop massively exporting or let the CNY depreciate. What kind of non-sense statement is this? Does no one understand economics? Pushing more products into the market makes prices drop not rise. So pushing more exports into the market (given a fixed demand) causes the currency to fall not rise. China can't support the value of its currency by dumping exports. If that is indeed what they are doing, it would only help tank their currency.
currency =/= product the more you export with huge trade surplus , other trading partners have to pay the balance ... countries have to exchange/buy CNY to pay the balance denominated in CNY.
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment George and for taking the time to view our content! If there is anyone else you would like to see interviewed, please let us know.
@@Funktastico The key here is the term dumping of exports. That means dumping products on the market for which there is demand. What the Chinese are doing is meeting demand. If they were dumping the prices of the exports should be falling hard. There should be no take. Their trade partners don't just willy-nilly just buy all the extra products for the same price no questions asked. The reality is there is an insatiable appetite in the global market for Chinese exports and the Chinese can always produce more to meet this demand. That's why the currency pretty much doesn't fall when their exports increase that much. In other words its not that they increase supply into a fixed demand. They are increasing supply into increasing demand. And if you do even see rising CNY against rising exports. It means the Chinese are creating demand for their products faster than they are creating supply. Also the CNY exchange rate is really just a shell game. It was a fixed currency before and it is still really a fixed currency now. Chinese exporters don't even charge CNY for their exports they charge USD. The exchange rate peg just tells these companies how much CNY they can get from the PBOC for the USD they earn. So they become more profitably when the CNY falls and less profitable when the CNY rises. It is the way the government manages the profitability of the export sector. You can think of it as a unique form of taxation policy for exporters.
Anyone who takes this man analysis of the Chinese economy serious is a fool. If his judgment is so good, why is he not saving the West economies. The US will be the first in line to pay big bucks just to smell his fart. 😂
What are your thoughts on Michael's analysis? If China has implemented such a massive stimulus package does this not mean things are much worse in China then anyone knows? China has the 2nd largest economy in the world representing 20% of global GDP. The implications for the rest of the world are significant.
🤣🤣
Weak, China imploding? You mean the US instead.
China’s dilemma is how to grow its middle class while keeping cost of living under control. High cost of living drives up labour costs and render export industries uncompetitive (as in the West in general). Housing, being the biggest driver of inflation, is the reason behind the government’s deliberate popping of the property bubble.
The Chinese economy is in a meaningful recession but this is a positive and not a negative for the rest of the world. The main impact of China on the rest of the world is as a seller of labor and industrial capacity. The impact that China has as a commodity and technology importer is much smaller. When China has a recession the main effect for rest of the world is that more labor and industrial capacity is for sale for cheaper. That improves the terms of trade for the rest of the world and makes them richer. The loss of Commodity and Technology income generated by selling to China is also there but this is a much smaller secondary effect.
@@davidlai399 Can we please stop talking non-sense in circles? China is experiencing deflation at the moment and before that had many decades of consistent low inflation. Standards of living weren't falling but rising dramatically every year (nominal wage growth of 8-10%, inflation of 2%) and now with the recent deflation, standards of living are at worse flat (housing prices have fallen far more than incomes).
I've also never heard of export industries losing competitiveness as their sales keep increasing every years? The only thing we can see from the export figures is that they get bigger every year and the composition keep shifting from soft industrial to heavy industrial and high tech goods.
It’s the first time in years they’ve made such aggressive moves. With the world's second-largest economy doing this and the U.S. also having cut interest rates not long ago, I’m curious-what do you think the implications will be for the global economy?
Well, lower interest rates usually mean more liquidity in the economy. China's rate cut could stimulate borrowing, investing, and consumer spending there
It could also potentially push up commodity prices, as China is a huge consumer of things like oil and metals. That could be positive for countries that export to China, like Australia or Brazil.
On a global scale, China's move could encourage more trade activity, especially with its trading partners. But on the flip side, some economies might feel more pressure. For example, if China’s economy is still sluggish after this move, it could signal deeper structural problems, and other economies could be dragged down by reduced demand from China
So do you think this could help offset some of the global slowdown concerns, especially with inflation still being a worry in many places?
It’s possible. With China and the U.S. both cutting rates, global liquidity increases, which could help ease the pressure on economies that are on the brink of recession. But at the same time, it can lead to more inflationary pressures down the road if the extra money circulating starts pushing prices up
Always appreciate Michael's great insights!👍
Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content!
Always good discussion with Michael Howell, thanks
Thanks for the comment Jim and for the ongoing support!
Always a Master Class when Mr. Howell is at the lectern 🙏🏼
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content!
Brilliant analysis.
Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content!
Terrific interview - I really like Michael's clarity and focus on liquidity. He gets into the weeds of the system, but in a way that even I can understand. Good questions, excellent guest. Nice :)
If Americans were so smart, why is their economy in such a mess?
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! Yes it is undergoing some issues especially with regard to debt and deficits but it is still the largest and strongest economy in the world.
How is the economy of your country doing?
@@BloorStreetCapital😂😂😂😂
Americans have never been smart, they even allowed slave owners to write their constitution.
@@lomotil3370 Personally I am doing OK, as is the state I live in, however the economy of the country is rubbish.
Great discussion on global liquidity.
Thank You Mike!
I've been buying byd all year. Let me tell you about that company. Doesn't matter what you say It's undervalued
BYD has been an amazing success story!
Tesla stock is overpriced by the tune of 10X
What Michael Howell described will happen in his dream!
Howells wishful thinking, his nightmare is called the BRICS
This is not a massive stimulus. China could do way more if it chooses. They know exactly what they are doing and the direction they wish to go.
Never bet against the Chinese!
Thank you for a very intellectual discussion. I learned a lot from your explanation and analysis of the situation.
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the positive comment and for taking the time to view our content!
Don't tell me about precious metals. I tried to sell my silver coins and was offered HALF. I was told I will be paying tax on the rest. Precious metals don't pay interest, aren't insured by FDIC. I asked about the value of my gold jewelry. I was offered HALF of the scrap value. Basically 1/4 of what the 14k jewelry cost. Diamonds aren't worth crap. Good luck getting 1/4 for those. The jeweler never mentions the flaws in the stones until you show up wanting to sell. Then the stone has flaws!
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment Larry and for taking the time to view our content! I have also had the same issues with coins. This is why I stick to ETFs.
@@BloorStreetCapital How confusing! At various times I think about buying physical gold but it's a headache to manage securely, and some sellers want cash. Ridiculous. All I know is no matter how much research you do, something will happen out of left field and then things go in an unexpected direction/take longer than you thought at first/ have unexpected knock-on effects. All you can do is try to hedge. ETFs do take a lot of risk analysis out of the equation. I have shares in gold exploration companies in Australia and intend to keep them.. There are risks with exploration stocks but this can only really be dealt with by risk analysis reading widely and asking a lot of questions.
Overall it seems clear things are going to be shaken up considerably, but I just watched the guy who wrote the 4th Turning and he says we don't know what will happen with ETFs when things start unravelling.
This guy Michael Howell is very articulate, has an expansive mind and thinks rapidly. A perfect interview subject.
The bottom has fallen out of the diamond market due to artificially created diamonds. I feel like every second channel is promoting some gold seller with bars, bullion or coins. It seems like a load of hype. IDK, just hedge? If you hang onto what you have when prices do go ballistic you will get the benefit? See also my comment below in reply to Jimmy Connor.
If you want to diversify out of only owning stocks and bonds, wait for a metal that is used to actually build infrastructure and useful products to plummet in price. When it’s something that everyone “knows” not to invest in, and the highest cost of production miners of that metal are halting production due to it being unprofitable… then consider stepping in. Then wait a couple years or however long til a spike. And since it’s ultra cyclical, get out.
Great interview ! Appreciate it Jimmy
Thanks for the comment Padraig and for the ongoing support!
Btw, US has printed so much money that it boosted the US stock market, do you really think most of the company listed in US stock market is worth that much money? Good luck!
Great point!
Do you actually know how money is created? It's not by printing money! QE is the closest thing to printing money but we haven't exactly done that since March 2020
@@bklm1234there’s the slow and steady money creation of banks giving out normal loans. Borrowing money that didn’t previously exist but suddenly you’re buying a house with it. Fractional reserve banking is weird
@@bklm12348 trillion $ was created since start of pandemic
haha u have no idea how much money China had been printing during the covid. just check the M2 supply from China since 2020 . If you understand what M2 stands for
Great Guest. This guy knows HIS Stuff!
Thanks for the comment Paul and for the ongoing support!
I don't understand why he had mentioned that the Chinese real exchange rate is "way way to high".. meaning the yuan is over valued, and why would the government want an over valued currency as they rely heavily on export? this would imply that there is more purchasing power but would not benefit domestic spending in any case.
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! If there is anyone else you would like to see interviewed, please let us know.
It's probably being propped up so the Chinese can buy food and other imports. It is an essential part of the unofficial social contract with the people that the CCP will perform politics away from scrutiny, if the people are increasing wealth. Recent times have challenged this and people are becoming restless. In order to maintain social stability (hold off from rioting and other rebellions) the government must at an absolute minimum, provide cheap food. China is highly dependent on food exports it's a long way from being self sufficient. A high currency might also help with international borrowing IDK but logic says a higher currency means you don't have to pay as much for borrowings in another currency? Traditionally China liked to have a low currency as this gave them a comparative advantage with exports competing on international domestic markets. Just some ideas.
@@deborahcurtis1385 another argument is that due to some of the exports that are essentials for the importing country, even if currency were over valued it won't dramatically affect its export competitiveness.
@@jazzbeats8168 Yes it all turns on the facts. But China's situation has radically altered and it's not in the position it once was. It still has to feed an increasingly restive population. The readjustments taking place now are very painful indeed and the corruption continues. They're slow to learn about the benefits of transparency and accountability.
👍Michael's liquidity theories do explain a lot . Thanks. 👍
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! If there is anyone else you would like to see interviewed, please let us know.
They completely forgotten the 145 trillions sleeping domestic savings in the chunese banking sector.
Mr. Howell is someone I listen to carefully.
Thanks for the comment Anthony! Agree 100%
Excellent perspective, Mr Howell.
Thanks for the comment Rajiv and for taking the time to view our content!
"It ain't gona do it"?? I always listen to Michael Howell. You get the whole subject wrapped up and tied with a bow.
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment Carol and for taking the time to view our content! If there is anyone else you would like to see interviewed, please let us know.
Jimmy, thank you for the video. I'd like to know more about a possible Chinese deval. Brent Johnson, Michael Howell have talked about this often but what are the implications? Thank you-
Thanks for the comment/question Dustin! I have another interviewed lined up with week with someone else on China and I will ask.
Thanks jimmy. Appreciate you and your channel.
I have been living and working in China for about 10 years. I have about $300,000 in yuan savings in the Bank of China. What do you suggest I do with that money? I am afraid that the Yuan will devalue and lose its value. Should I withdraw the money to Europe and exchange it for Euros? Or maybe buying gold or stocks is a better solution? At the moment, apartments are also quite cheap in China and maybe that is not a bad option, but I don't know what will happen with the price of apartments in the future in China. Thanks in advance for your reply
Great discussion, Michael always has interesting and logical insights.
Thanks for the comment Richard! Yes he does and he can take a complex topic like China's stimulus program and relate it to how it will impact the ROW.
China had a 1.4 bn population the stimulus is still small compared to the USA 36 trillions of printed paper money. Their economy rate is 5% or more with this stimulus the rate could go up to 6% or more.
Great points!
Great discussion, thanks!
Thanks for the comment Amanda and for taking the time to view our content!
Oh, this is the same guy I recently listened to on the Library of Mistakes. That's street cred right there! His book, Capital Wars, is definitely on my reading list.
Thanks for the comment Stephen and for taking the time to view our content!
That point on Red Capitalism is spot on!
Michael made some very, very good & interesting points, excellent analysis as always.
Particularly, ‘intensive’/‘extensive’ way of thinking about BTC (which incidentally also applies to Gold); the debt maturity ‘wall’ likely to begin end of 20205; the increasing allocation of capital to refinancing debt rather than (new) businesses and growth; Yellen’s shortening of the maturity (with the obvious funding implications); and finally the possible new unofficial ‘Plaza Accord’.
Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content!
Wow sir this was so great. Wisdom wisdom wisdom.
Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! If there is someone else you would like to see interviewed please let us know.
Mr Howell. CLEVER chap
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Was this interview before or after the second announcement from china?
It was recorded on the 25th and released on the 28th! Why do you ask?
Superb guest
Thanks for the comment David and for taking the time to view our content!
Thank you.
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment grace and for taking the time to view our content!
That excess debt will be inflated and paid by that inflation. Inflation will increase.
Yes and the whole cycle repeats itself!
WHILE IN THE WEST EU UK USA AUSTRALIA ARE DOING EXTREMELY WELL IN COMPARISON TO ASIA
Sarcasm is the lowest form of wit.
@@waynegrimes7610somebody says highest
What this channel needs is more ad breaks.
So the crap in between passes unnoticed.
Fair point! We will look into that.
Unfortunately we may have too many electric cars because the world of NATIO does not have the electrical infrastructure to handle everyone plugging in. The example California government told the people do not plug in during the day. So travel to 7pm & hold your vacation till 6am.
Ha yeh wasnt that crazy!
You reported is good or bad motive
Detective of Money Politics is following this very informative content cheers from VK3GFS and 73s from Frank from Melbourne Australia
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content!
Great video!
Thanks for the positive feedback William!
Could you please discuss the Australian economy. It is low on the complexity index , is it on the brink of death if China finally implodes ? 🙏🏼
Thanks for the questions! I will bring this up in our next conversation. I can only assume China’s collapse would not be good for Australia.
master of nonsense
BS at the best. China just needs to be a better investment opportunity than any other western country and the funding will flow in. Currently it is hence the rise in Markets. It is way ahead in terms of being a good investment since prices are so low. The US in comparison is in a terrible state. China doesn’t want to be printing money like the US.
As Michael mentioned, all financial crisis come out of excessive debt disasters and the current situation is '08 x 10
Thanks for the comment Ethan! Yes that was an interesting point about all financial disasters stem from excessive debt.
The ability for governments to utilize a digital currency will be the game changer. The can kicking will last longer than anyone can possibly imagine.
Same goes for the US
There is just so much vacillating and back and forth between bearish and bullish perspectives the last month or so. The see-saw effect.
Historically high valuations ( and pick your metric ) have always been followed by significant trouble. There is nothing special about these economic times , including AI hype and exuberance , that makes it any different. We are likely headed for a ‘ Fourth Turning’ economic event --and likely soon. There is zero doubt IMO that a NASDAQ sell off of consequence is coming.
Thanks for the detailed analysis! I love hearing the commentary of our viewers. I think we are at an inflection point and that’s why so many different opinions. The next few months will be so interesting!
The west unfortunately was outcompeted by china in most of industries,actually will ended up in almost all industries sooner or later,no matter how hard the west close their markets - don't forget the west only cover about 13% population globally.
The rest huge part of global market is so so potential for developing,and that's the bigger part of future
Financial advantages of USD are just not enough to win this bigger part of future but industrial capabilities do
Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! Never bet against China!
Just visited China. The price there is very reasonable especially food price. 7 times less cost to get the similar food than in US. So what's the reason to devalue the currency?
to keep people employed flooding the world market with cheap goods
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment/question and for taking the time to view our content! The cheaper the currency the cheaper the goods to export.
Jealous of your earnings, but ready to learn!
Monetization of the debt is when the Federal Reserve Bank buys the treasury instruments rather than the various banks.
Howell is usually on point. In a debt saturated world, being able to roll it over is huge.
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment Peter and for taking the time to view our content! If there is anyone else you would like to see interviewed, please let us know.
when was this recorded btw
Yesterday! Hot off the press!
Majority of Chinese household wealth is about 70% in their property, so Chinese government stimulus is gear towards Chinese property owner whereas Western stimulus in 2008 benefit the banks and they let the property crash so Americans lost all the wealth. Michael analysis is bias and he has no idea how wealthy China CNB is and he is giving his comment on China who is number 1 in export in almost everything. In short if China economy is bad then the rest of the world is disasterous.
The Western politicians kept using their stupid theory that criticise China for over production, and we won’t be like Japan because we are not as stupid as Japan to follow Western rules. China spend their money I. Their economy while the Western politicians spend their money to fuel for wars which does not benefit ordinary western people but for the corrupt politicians and the weapon chain manufacturers.
I've been working and living in both Australia and China for 40 years, I'm getting a little bit sick and tired of many western economists, perhaps majority of them in dead earnest way to discuss, analyse and predict upcoming or ongoing collapsing of China's economy for the last 40 years for Christ sake! And look back, the China's economy grew stronger and stronger year by year, no wonder Chinese netizens jokingly called them were the agents from the bureau of strategic captivation who secretly worked for China. What knowledge they really lack of beside prejudice and arrogance? Aren't they ashamed by so many years of their failures?!
The downfall of Japanese economy was real estate bubble, so was Greek economy. So far the CCP has created a new bubble to cover up the old bubbles. It question of time how long&big the bubble can last. However China is in deflation in the last 1 year, it can sure print some fiat money to push inflation??
@@dannalin4937another mórón "China expert"...
@@peanut0brain 小粉紅
The thing is that they say so being people involved in the financial market. And so don't understand what the stimulus is a long term economic strategy. And not to please these financial hawks.
Not easy to follow, time stamps would have been helpful.
Appreciate the feedback. It takes much time to do that also and when it’s only 40 min long we don’t bother.
Dude can't even pronounce Yuan correctly and we're supposed to take him seriously
China's 1 trillion yuan stimulus is nothing compared to what is required. This money will not last more than a week. China needs something like 50trillion RMB stimulus per year to make right amount of shift. Economy is three times larger than what it was in 2008. Even at that time, china provided a stimulus of 5tn RMB.
It’s too bad the guest is so biased and is unable to provide a balanced assessment. Of course this is intentional to forward his own personal agenda.
100 💯 facts
What are you talking about,.. he's absolutely spot on.
The insane unnecessary unprecedented deficits are causing an exponential rise in liquidity and inflation.
What's a time tested hedge against inflation caused by a government stealing from tax payers and spending like drunken sailors?
Gold, hard assets,...
@@jcgoogle1808 don't waste time responding to Chinabots
Free trde means no sanctions and tariffs= sanctions. Jealousy of another country is awful. Us printing money madness is not backed by gold.
Thanks for the comment Dan and for taking the time to view our content! If there is someone else you would like to see interviewed please let us know.
out of the box question, did crossborder loss any money recently due to betting on china either direction?
China hasn’t changed and Xi hasn’t changed. If tomorrow Putin introduces a stimulus pack would you invest? How do you price the risk?
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment/question and for taking the time to view our content! That's a great point and when you can choose between the US and Europe or the US and China, I will take the US 100% of the time
I have been living and working in China for about 10 years. I have about $300,000 in yuan savings in the Bank of China. What do you suggest I do with that money? I am afraid that the Yuan will devalue and lose its value. Should I withdraw the money to Europe and exchange it for Euros? Or maybe buying gold or stocks is a better solution? At the moment, apartments are also quite cheap in China and maybe that is not a bad option, but I don't know what will happen with the price of apartments in the future in China. Thanks in advance for your reply
Thanks for the comment/question and for taking the time to view our content! Unfortunately this is not something I can answer. I would suggest seeking a financial advisor who can better assess your risk profile.
price of apartments is too reliant on location and whether or not they can generate money stream by rental. i don't see how euros will do well in the near future. i wouldn't be worried about devaluation of yuan -- currency worth is pinned relative to other currencies, china might have its problems, but i don't see how they are disastrous compared to the majority of other countries.
run for your life before it's too late
@@TrevorEMayo Thanks for the comment Trevor and for taking the time to view our content!
Thanks Jimmy and Michael! I agree with you no one knows whats is going on in China but I think these policy changes signifies how bad things are there. Its another financial pandemic and its out of control. I agree with Michaels assessment on gold and bitcoin. JUST BUY!!!!
Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to join us during the UA-cam Premier! Go Gold!
Things are bad everywhere, China has already hit the bottom, and US has not yet
Brian McCarthy of Macrolens seems to have similar opinion about China.
I’m not familiar with him. Should I have him on?
With all the problems in UK & EU they shouldn't be looking in someone else's backyard. 3× the price for natural resources 😂
How is The People's government financing this liquidity infusion? What we have here is the CCP equivalent of the Inflation Production Act.
Every time that you buy a Made in China product, you are financing the growth of the Chinese economy.
Bureaucrats fiddling with knobs around the edges 😂 made me laugh (that's probably not word for word but close enough)
😂 imploding china story is getting old.
China has been on the brink of collapse for 20 years
@illi agree 👍
China has been imploding for 40 years.
It's comical at this point. These two guys are completely clueless.
@@BAT_SHooT_CRAZY They must have received a slice of the US congress 1.6 billion propaganda package.
It has imploded but it’s not contagious to the financial system especially to the world
No it’s not
This guy's got it wrong. There's plenty of liquidity, people have hoarded massive savings.
🙄🙄
there's only liquidity if the money is being spent and why would you spend it if everything around you tells you your nation is headed towards deflation without a significant social safety net
it was never that ppl had enough happy and rich life and joined a war, it was the war quickly switching the major problems or focus from dealing w poverty to conflicts by nationalism
China has the least problem among chaotic world!
Yes,China will, right after the U..
Off course. Common sense
No, but USA is. 👍🇬🇧
We're talking big digits...
It's China and the European EU it started in Germany in trade settlements next 50 years The United States dominance has come to trade their relationship is totally different. Like Germany will start. It'll be good and I would suggest moving to Europe it is different and isn't decided by the United States and The world currency and tariffs. They have a different relationship that isn't American has Rome in it
They wont be buying teslas they wiill buy food.
Nor apartment homes…that’s scam has run its course
Nope. Wishful thinking. See SEAN FOO, Prof. Michael Hudson, Prof. Richard D. Wolff, Prof. Jeffrey Sachs, and so forth.
Thanks for the comment Andy, I will check them out!
I used to follow Sean Foo, and concluded that he is a bit of a clown and I wouldn't take him too seriously.
ha-ha, Foo is a complete clown. Michael Pettis is a genuine china expert working in China. Love Sachs but he knows sweet fa about China compared to Pettis.
Lol. A list of china propagandist
@@BloorStreetCapital - SEAN FOO and ANDY SCHECTMAN - 27 SEPT
ua-cam.com/video/E_IMWfgFwZg/v-deo.html
Andy Schectman is an American entrepreneur, the co-founder of Franklin Miles Co., he's the CEO of the precious metals company with $billions sales turnover, with over 35 years in this field. Very logical explanation by Schectman, factual based!
Humans are on both sides of the trade....the real crash happens when the algo's and AI turn bearish.
Interesting point. Are you suggesting the impending crash could be like 1987?
Again, western superiority
...and Bitcoin collapsed these days... 😂
Omg..been watching for 9 mins..don't understand what he is saying.
Forever bull in US
Boom!
They are going to collapse the currency this is wild!!!
Chinese bots going crazy 😂
China is still manufacturing
Ya fentanyl
*Chicken Little: The sky is falling !*
"Balance sheet recession"
Wait did this guy just say (6:00) that China must either stop massively exporting or let the CNY depreciate. What kind of non-sense statement is this? Does no one understand economics? Pushing more products into the market makes prices drop not rise. So pushing more exports into the market (given a fixed demand) causes the currency to fall not rise. China can't support the value of its currency by dumping exports. If that is indeed what they are doing, it would only help tank their currency.
currency =/= product
the more you export with huge trade surplus , other trading partners have to pay the balance ...
countries have to exchange/buy CNY to pay the balance denominated in CNY.
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment George and for taking the time to view our content! If there is anyone else you would like to see interviewed, please let us know.
They're trying hard to tame the inflation in the west, buy it aint happening, the Chinese will not salvage the situation this time round. 😁😁
@@Funktastico The key here is the term dumping of exports. That means dumping products on the market for which there is demand. What the Chinese are doing is meeting demand. If they were dumping the prices of the exports should be falling hard. There should be no take. Their trade partners don't just willy-nilly just buy all the extra products for the same price no questions asked. The reality is there is an insatiable appetite in the global market for Chinese exports and the Chinese can always produce more to meet this demand. That's why the currency pretty much doesn't fall when their exports increase that much. In other words its not that they increase supply into a fixed demand. They are increasing supply into increasing demand. And if you do even see rising CNY against rising exports. It means the Chinese are creating demand for their products faster than they are creating supply.
Also the CNY exchange rate is really just a shell game. It was a fixed currency before and it is still really a fixed currency now. Chinese exporters don't even charge CNY for their exports they charge USD. The exchange rate peg just tells these companies how much CNY they can get from the PBOC for the USD they earn. So they become more profitably when the CNY falls and less profitable when the CNY rises. It is the way the government manages the profitability of the export sector. You can think of it as a unique form of taxation policy for exporters.
我不懂英文，但是我可以肯定的说西方人能在媒体上谈论中国的一切，都是幼稚无知的评论，看待问题很肤浅，根本就看不到本质，学术水平都不如一个普通中国人的水平。还有一些西方人对中国了解的非常透彻，但是这些人是绝不会公开评论的，因为说出来会影响西方世界的政治正确，甚至会否定西方的学术研究，所以他们根本不敢公开说出来。西方可能对科学技术有一定的优势，但是对社会经济发展，甚至到理论科学哲学学术方面，西方世界真的很差。
Anyone who takes this man analysis of the Chinese economy serious is a fool. If his judgment is so good, why is he not saving the West economies. The US will be the first in line to pay big bucks just to smell his fart. 😂
DANGEROUS,CHINESE LOVE TO GAMBLE
It's a scam..
lots of BS
Why do you think that?
Gold is and will continue to perform well, but from the charts it looks like Bitcoin will outperform it.
Thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! Nothing better then gold!
china is in decline 😢 Sad
Propagsnda
Anyway, US hegemony is bad.
Detective of Money Politics is following this very informative content cheers from VK3GFS and 73s from Frank from Melbourne Australia