A couple of tips from a fellow "grandmaster" at risk: 1. When you signal to a novice that you want to leave a continent, they usually take it as a sign that you want to attack them and they add more troops. 2. When you're very spread out, keep stacking in a single territory while you attack with the other territories (even if below 100%) to try to get a card out of those territories. I think you know this, but it could have helped this game. Your instinct to stack in Japan while not adding anywhere else and just taking cards to get value elsewhere would have worked better. Then swoop in for the kill when a novice inevitably weakens themselves, and you're back in the game. Adding troops to Madagascar was flushing them down the toilet. You needed those three extra troops in your single stack to survive.
Ah, so I’m not the only one to get a completely scattered start, no turn in on four, and no cooperative players. But hey, we play it out. We don’t bot out!
It's good to see that everyone can lose to newbies doing crazy stuff. Turn-in chances without wildcards: No matter what the first two cards are, you need one specific card for a turn-in on 3, so 1/3 chance. If you don't hit it then you'll have two of one type and one of another type, so two of the three cards produce a turn-in with the fourth card: 2/3 chance. That means the chance to not have a turn-in at 3 or 4 cards is 2/3 * 1/3 = 2/9. The chance to have one is 7/9 = 78%. Wildcards increase that chance but I don't know how common they are.
Here i am, going through recommended videos on youtube, and then i spot myself! I was the orange player in the game :) Quite funny must i say so myself. Btw, meeting players like you that are open to being diplomatic in games, are a breath of fresh air! Hope to meet you again!
Just created a quick python code to test, with 4 cards there are 81 posible outcomes in which 63 of those let you trade. so 63/81 = 21/27 = 7/9 ~= 77.777%
Just to add a little… Here my kind of reaching the 2/9 probability without python (still ignoring the wildcard, and also the the cards you have are actually missing in the deck): when you get the third card, you need a specific card to turn in on 3, so 1/3 probability to turn in and 2/3 to have to wait. When you get your forth card after missing the trade on 3, you cards are two of one type and one of a second kind. So the only way not to be able to turn in on 4 is getting another card of the second kind. That’s 1/3 probability. Multiply those together 2/3 * 1/3.= 2/9
There are 14 of each card type, plus 2 wild cards. This means there are 44 cards in the deck, and 3,258,024 possible 4 card hands. There 3 possible ways of getting to 4 cards without a set, 2 infantry + 2 artillery, 2 infantry + 2 cavalry, 2 cavalry + 2 artillery. Within each of these are 6 ways of arranging the 4 cards, and within each of these are 33,124 different ways of achieving this hand (14×13 for the first card type multiple by 14×13 for the 2nd card type). This means there are 596,232 hands without a set. This mean you have about an 18.3 percent chance of not having a set after 4 cards.
You threatened to attack pink and then said thanks. You intended to say "please let me out". He thought you were saying "You interfered with my plans, now I'm going to destroy you"
I've played Risk sporadically and casually for about three decades, including FB Risk for awhile when that was a thing a decade or so ago. Watching VC videos is the first time I've ever heard the concept of getting out of someone's way and deliberately vacating/surrendering a continent to an opponent. Ditto later in the game deliberately letting someone keep a continent even when you could break them, unless you were verbally allies in an IRL tabletop game. (I did know splitting across all your territories is bad.)
I felt this on a deep level. As a beginner who keeps getting these kinds of games right at the brink of leveling up, I need to know I'm not alone. Misery loves company and all that.
As a last ditch effort, if you kept your 4 in Madagascar, and got your card in GB, you would have survived one more turn and turned in a set because of orange's troop placement and your being spread out. Yes, it would have made orange angry, but desperate times call for desperate measures. Where's your fighting spirit?
This is exactly what we wanted to see, you should even review the start and think about how you could have done better with the knowledge you have now 😊.
Feels nice to know I'm not the only one that gets screwed this bad in risk.
Oh god, I was thinking the whole time "he's gonna come back from this" then I looked at the video length
A couple of tips from a fellow "grandmaster" at risk:
1. When you signal to a novice that you want to leave a continent, they usually take it as a sign that you want to attack them and they add more troops.
2. When you're very spread out, keep stacking in a single territory while you attack with the other territories (even if below 100%) to try to get a card out of those territories. I think you know this, but it could have helped this game.
Your instinct to stack in Japan while not adding anywhere else and just taking cards to get value elsewhere would have worked better. Then swoop in for the kill when a novice inevitably weakens themselves, and you're back in the game.
Adding troops to Madagascar was flushing them down the toilet. You needed those three extra troops in your single stack to survive.
Oh my dude acutally added to Madagascar xdd I didnt saw that.
Great tips!
I'm so glad you're posting crappy games! I built my whole channel on the premise of learning from mistakes!
Ah, so I’m not the only one to get a completely scattered start, no turn in on four, and no cooperative players.
But hey, we play it out. We don’t bot out!
It's good to see that everyone can lose to newbies doing crazy stuff.
Turn-in chances without wildcards:
No matter what the first two cards are, you need one specific card for a turn-in on 3, so 1/3 chance.
If you don't hit it then you'll have two of one type and one of another type, so two of the three cards produce a turn-in with the fourth card: 2/3 chance. That means the chance to not have a turn-in at 3 or 4 cards is 2/3 * 1/3 = 2/9. The chance to have one is 7/9 = 78%. Wildcards increase that chance but I don't know how common they are.
Worked out quite well for Pink. Hit a 6 with a 7, only lost 2, but took the continent that gave him 2...and you lose 6. Still dumb, but it worked.
Thank you so much for the shoutout! It's amazing to find new Risk content creators 😎😊
Here i am, going through recommended videos on youtube, and then i spot myself! I was the orange player in the game :) Quite funny must i say so myself. Btw, meeting players like you that are open to being diplomatic in games, are a breath of fresh air! Hope to meet you again!
Just created a quick python code to test, with 4 cards there are 81 posible outcomes in which 63 of those let you trade. so 63/81 = 21/27 = 7/9 ~= 77.777%
You have neglected the wildcard
@@octopodes7619 oh shut, you are right, so the chances are even bigger.
Just to add a little… Here my kind of reaching the 2/9 probability without python (still ignoring the wildcard, and also the the cards you have are actually missing in the deck): when you get the third card, you need a specific card to turn in on 3, so 1/3 probability to turn in and 2/3 to have to wait. When you get your forth card after missing the trade on 3, you cards are two of one type and one of a second kind. So the only way not to be able to turn in on 4 is getting another card of the second kind. That’s 1/3 probability. Multiply those together 2/3 * 1/3.= 2/9
There are 14 of each card type, plus 2 wild cards. This means there are 44 cards in the deck, and 3,258,024 possible 4 card hands.
There 3 possible ways of getting to 4 cards without a set, 2 infantry + 2 artillery, 2 infantry + 2 cavalry, 2 cavalry + 2 artillery. Within each of these are 6 ways of arranging the 4 cards, and within each of these are 33,124 different ways of achieving this hand (14×13 for the first card type multiple by 14×13 for the 2nd card type). This means there are 596,232 hands without a set.
This mean you have about an 18.3 percent chance of not having a set after 4 cards.
You threatened to attack pink and then said thanks. You intended to say "please let me out". He thought you were saying "You interfered with my plans, now I'm going to destroy you"
This was such a disappointing game. But yes, this is exactly what we want to see
We want the highs and the lows.
I love how all the top Risk streamers stop in to watch you play the worst game of your life 😂
I've played Risk sporadically and casually for about three decades, including FB Risk for awhile when that was a thing a decade or so ago. Watching VC videos is the first time I've ever heard the concept of getting out of someone's way and deliberately vacating/surrendering a continent to an opponent. Ditto later in the game deliberately letting someone keep a continent even when you could break them, unless you were verbally allies in an IRL tabletop game. (I did know splitting across all your territories is bad.)
Yes this is EXACTLY what we want to see!
I crossed over to Grandmaster ranks yesterday night, also thanks to your inspirational videos!
Congrats!
That was quite a tantrum. I did not see that coming.
1:13 eat dem veggies
ok 😆
I felt this on a deep level. As a beginner who keeps getting these kinds of games right at the brink of leveling up, I need to know I'm not alone. Misery loves company and all that.
If I were a Jonny boy, I'd have just done everything I could to sabotage pink
I had like 3 days in a row of games like that. I'm new and worked up to expert just to get knocked back down to beginner. Very discouraging
that was a good decision
You know things are bad, when you’re scouring the “worst” games just to watch “new” VC content. Hope you get better soon! Your updates are missed!
That rage quit at the end😆
This was your best game I’ve watched, ver6 entertaining 😂😂😂
This is exactly what I’m here for
This is actually better content than a stalemate win 😂
As a last ditch effort, if you kept your 4 in Madagascar, and got your card in GB, you would have survived one more turn and turned in a set because of orange's troop placement and your being spread out. Yes, it would have made orange angry, but desperate times call for desperate measures. Where's your fighting spirit?
Yes. We like the pain.
Hahahaha this was horrible but fun to watch anyway.
YES MORE RISK
This is exactly what we wanted to see, you should even review the start and think about how you could have done better with the knowledge you have now 😊.
Classic fixed lobby sure haven't changed much in a year.
how come you didn't turn in at the end? that didn't make sense to me
Probably ended up being an easy win for orange and pink probably died very soon
yes
This was very entertaining tho
im guessing there is a massive backlog of videos if every single match is ending up on here 🧐🧐👀