You’re Being Tricked Into Buying Bad Stocks
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- Опубліковано 4 гру 2022
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Hi Joseph, I love the channel. Have you considered using a company ranking system in your portfolio? It could be a nice feature for your software. Giving +/- points to good debt to cash, growing revenue (5 year average), free cash flow growth/ FCF yield, net income, share dilution, PE ratio, 200 day moving average, etc. I think it would make for an interesting video and would be fun to see how your companies compare to each other objectively.
Dollar Genral is overpriced, every nice thing you said in the video is priced in. The PE is 24. All that growth is in that price, your returns will not be what you will pay for now
Do this same method with Netflix. Yikes!
Any dfcf calc in it?
So watching your summary of all the different factors... What was the math to get 20% returns?
Over the years I have learned how to analyze stocks and developed my own skills. However, one of the best ways I've learned about dividend investing has been by buying dividend stocks. I have received $280k so far last year in dividends.
@stanleyedwin6947 I would say have a mentor. Not sure where you will get an experience one, but if your knowledge of the market is limited, it seems like a good bet.
Scam thread
yeah, i see these in every investing video. it's frustrating because you hope to see real and useful comments lol@@cheezeweasel
Pay the right price for cash flow. And don't chase hype.
And that my friend is how you build wealth, safely. Well said!
I missed TSLA at 115-150 a share and NVDA at 33... One of my most costly mistakes in life.
Learned this lesson the hard way with Zoom, Crowdstrike and Fiver...
Math isn't hype. TSLA has better numbers than DG. Debt to cash ratio and EBITDA to debt ratio point to TSLA being the better company in this comparison. Not even close.
@@purewonka those are both liquidity ratios. In the end we're paying for free cash flow
One of your best videos in my opinion.
I think the same 👍. Really educational
You should do more videos like this, great job. People have to realise that investing is boring
I laughed out loud. I own both Tesla and Dollar General. I’m from Florida and frequently visit the south. Dollar General is absolutely kicking ass. And I live in Los Angeles and I can tell you Tesla is also completely kicking ass. 😂 great vid Joseph!
how does it look today? seems like DG is suffering
To my understanding this just proves how much we need an edge as investors because playing the market like everyone else just isn’t good enough. I've been quite unsure about investing in this current market and at the same time I feel it's the best time to get started on the market, what are your thoughts?
I always found the idea of using spreadsheets very time consuming and unnecessary. I just dump a bunch of money into my savings accounts each month and keep my spending money in a separate account and try to spend as little as possible.
There are actually a lot of ways to make high yields in a crisis, but such trades are best done under the supervision of Financial advisor.
@@AmandaMichelle. Yes i agree and the markets are going berserk right now. This is the best time to watch them, get to know them better, and strike when the opportunity presents itself. I learned that from my mentor, 'Donna Lorraine Judge’ she's seen dozens of market cycles over the past few decades, and she has a feel for how they move, why they move, and what comes next.
@@advancetotabletop5030 Glad to have stumbled on this conversation. Please can you leave the info of your investment advisor here? I’m in dire need for one.
@@kozovski6628 You may have heard of the advisor I employ previously; her name is "Donna Lorraine Judge," and you can look her up online.
What a brilliant video Joseph..thanks a ton..and pls keep like these more coming..I’ve been watching your videos for long now and I can say there’s hardly anyone on youtube with this conviction and honesty..keep it up 🫶🤝
Great video Joseph! I loved these type of videos when you bring overlooked businesses that are not so popular or flashy but they have a great fundamental value. just like the one you did on Ulta beauty.
This is probably the best video that you have ever put out. As a newbie investor I always wonder where do the returns come from, and you really clarify lots of doubts I’ve always had
Hey Joseph, this was a very informative video. I Really enjoy the different perspective you brought in this one. Keep up the good work👍
Thanks for sharing. Like the analysis a lot. Hope you will do more like this for other companies.
Thank you for a great informative video Joe! Would like more content like this!
Heard someone say the best season for a fin.ancial breakthrough is now, especially with inflation running at a four-decade high. I have approximately $750k stagnant in my port_folio that needs growth. What is the best way to take advantage of this downturn?
That’s right! Downturns provide plenty of opportunities for regular people to build wealth from the scratch. However, you may need to get some professional advice from an Invest-ment planner if you need an aggressive return.
@@lauraclover1547 Recessions are where millionaires are created. After my port_folio took a big hit in April, I was forced to employ the services of an Invest-ment-analyst who has not only accrued a profit of $250k for me since then but has also taught me how.
@@bleshjjdnit Please can you leave the info of your invstment analyst here? I overheard someone talking about how a couple made $200k during this red season. I need such luck lol
@@lindamattalom My adviser is “Deanna Lynn Renfro” You can easily look her up. She has years of financial market experience and she is also FINRA & SEC verifiable.
@@bleshjjdnit Thank you for this amazing tip. I verified her and booked a call session with her. She seems Proficient.
Superb and timely content! Thank you 🎉
Growth is interesting not because retail investors are dumb, but because the theory is that you're buying to hold for a long time and growth stocks will grow now and improve margins in the future. Then this theory clashes with the FOMO and Hype Train chase and people get confused.
Absolutely amazing analysis! Thank you!
Don't let Buffett know about Dollar General, he'll snap it right up if he ever saw that beautiful steady and stable growth lmao
Growth, yes,dividends, valuation and 'persistence' (number of years a company can grow at a specific rate).
Very educational indeed, thanks Joseph 👍
Epic video 👍🙌👏 great content on the importance of finding high quality boring companies that have amazing book 📕 value and consistent dividend growth 👍🙌👏
A really good video to put growth in perspective. Thank you!
Very good video. Very informative ! Thank you Joseph !
Great vid. Thanks. What’s the best site / platform to use to filter for such companies? I.e. similar to your demo for dollar general
You're absolutely right, and there are more companies just like that out there. The bottom line is, most people buy whatever they are told to. Whatever has the marketing. Whatever is on TV, whatever seems to be popular. Even though they might not say it, most people want to fit in more than they want to make money. On top of it all many people are easily influenced. If you feed them the same thing every day, sooner or later, they will start doing it
Great insight!
Great content Joseph! Would love for you to go into a video about picking "younger" or less established companies. Even just a checklist of things you would look out for if we were going to do research
Yeah can I get uhhhh…
Double compounder with cheese?
With a side of that uhhh... dividend sauce.
The Buyback Shakes be gettin' a 1% Sugar Tax next year, they're sweet but don't add any economic value.
Appreciate your channel and analysis Joseph. Curious if there is an ETF fund that tracks something akin to what you describe. Regardless, thank you, and keep up the great work sir!
Thank you for very valuable Video. Very valuable lesson. I've been at this investing game in earnest for a decade, and this is one of the best lessons I've learned.
Please make more videos like this! Really helps out young investors like myself understand what we're getting into.
Awesome tips 👌🏿
Awesome video, thank you very much :)
Such good insights here- keep up the good work Joseph!
That’s a great video thank you! Might be interesting to see a video on how do you screen to actually find this type of companies, since they are not very talked about one has to do the discovering work for himself…
Very informative and good explanation
Great content very helpful.
Exceptional video ❤️❤️ can't wait for your take on GPT now 🥳
Thank you !
Great video, Joseph! I have owned DG for several years now, and I don't believe I have ever seen a UA-cam video that covered it. So after your very good analysis, do you plan to add it to your portfolio?
Another gem from J! Thanks
I feel like Zoom is dumbest most easily replicable business ever , I don’t get it 😂
I don't know what it is :)
Yep. It’s been around for years with FaceTime lol. Plus there is MS Teams.
Not really.
Many competitors have tried: Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Cisco, Slack... But their call quality is horrendous and it never improved.
Zoom calls are easily 10x better and I say that as a person who spends a ton of time on calls every day. Even intercontinental video calls work great.
The founders of Zoom worked on years on WebEx, they got tired of the product quality and the result was Zoom.
If a better solution comes around I'll switch tomorrow. But Zoom is running circles around all these big corps for now.
@@TBasianeyes there is 0 moat my guy
@@TBasianeyes I refuse to believe these other tech companies can’t come in and get to Zooms quality. They have all the money and all the talent in the world. FaceTime is every bit as good as Zoom. My work uses MS Teams, not Zoom. Why when companies use Office 365 would they also pay for Zoom? It won’t be around in 5-10 years. Guaranteed.
Excellent video Joseph!
Great video!
I just buy vti and schd mostly
Swap VTI with DGRO and your on the right track.
same here man. I think this approach is hard to beat
Easy peasy. Set that autoinvest and wake me up in 30 years.
would love to see in Qualtrim a listing or a way to display companies by descending Piotroski Score.
Awesome episode!
Very good video @Joseph
Terrific video! I like looking at companies that may be boring, but people are going there over and over to buy their products. I have nothing against Tesla, but people don't buy new cars all that often.
Another good one would be UNH, a health insurance provider. It is doing pretty well in this "bear" market. I kind of regard not getting it early last year.
I dont have words for this amaizing analysis ! Congrats mate !
I am a fractional investor from India. Even though market went down it was easy for me to dollar cost average. Last week my entire portfolio went back into the green. I buy mostly chip companies and some times even buy soxl and soxs fractions to make some quick buck.
Enjoyed the video!
Great video, thank you for putting in the time and effort to make this for us. I really liked your Insight Software financial software with all the great graphs. How does one go about getting that for themselves without having our own business? I tried, but it wants me to put in a business email address, and I'm retired.
One of your best videos - very clear and well explained! Probably half of wall street analysts can’t name all these return components if you asked them …
Couldn’t explain any better to understand the fundamentals of a company, you’re Awesome as you’re always, Thank you for your valuable videos
great content
Hey Joseph, I’ve been watching your videos for a long time and enjoy learning how to pick good stocks! This is a purely innocent question, but do you go into why you don’t invest in any big oil stocks in any of your videos?
Thanks,
Derek
Great episode.
There is a PS ratio to value revenues. This helps for companies like Amazon most years that was growing and reinvesting so earnings were zero or near zero.
Excellent lesson on growth and the financial buyback game. I'm shocked you have COST in your portfolio and not DG which beat COST over 10 yrs with a much lower P/E. If they made buybacks illegal a whole bunch of stks would be slow growth dogs like APPL and AMZN....lol
Then a tsunami of cash would come into shareholders' pockets tho.
I been looking on dollar general for some time. It caught my eye while watchin Company Man
BUY BUSINESSES, NOT STOCKS.
I see a lot of investors buy stocks based on only one or two financial measurements. A stock is much more than a P/E Ratio or sales growth, you need to look at the full picture. Thanks for sharing another valuable video Joseph!
This video aged like fine milk. Not only is Nvidia absolutely out of control, but Dollar general tanked HARD😂
Lesson here: Do not listen to hype channels or "unhype" channels. Do your research and invest globally.
Was wondering if it is sponsored content? Why is DG singly used as "the" stock that retail investors didn't pay attention to?
Thanks for the video with great insight and education... Now let's focus on Nvidia and Tesla again 😄 jkjk. I think you should talk about Pepsi more, I think there's a lot more growth rather than it just being a stable part of a portfolio
good point. this video made me realised im biased of googla and amazon
Dollar General seems to have a pretty bad employee retention rate from what I've experienced though. The one near often closes early or will just be closed certain days cause they couldn't get anyone to come in. I'm not sure how much they pay, but I'd guess they haven't kept up with most of retail.
I would love to see your analysis on hei
Great video. you've reminded me of what someone once said ❤ Your assets are your employees. Invest more on those performing well. Let the non-performers go
I love DG -- even though I have never been in one of their stores. Look at that chart for crying out loud. Thanks for showing it some love.
Does Qualtrim include foreign stock exchanges or only US?
Show your Holding tab, please
In retro perspective always it is easy to find unrevealed stocks which has well performed in the past.
AMAZING ANALYSIS!
Another well thought out video Joseph! I know DG has had historically high returns, but I was in one recently and it was an absolute nightmare. Not nearly enough employees, and the store was a complete mess. Even the prices weren't all that great. I have to think that dogshit customer experience will eventually catch up with them, but maybe that's just wishful thinking. Not MOAT either. Anywho, a 23 PE is too much to pay for such a terribly run company imo. Cheers!
It also has a ton of debt.
You are brilliant. This is the exact thing I've been looking for on UA-cam. Someone to show me how to analyze the stats. I'm looking for solid companies with growth. It doesn't have to be phenomenal growth. I'm not looking to get rich overnight. Don't get me wrong, it would be nice but not expected. Thanks for your ee opening post. Lisa
excellent
Returns comes not just from future profits , but what you PAY for those future profits now.
I don’t think that we can discuss where returns come from without considering price.
Dollar General, VICI, Starbucks and Walmart are a handful of stocks in my portfolio that are still in the green. It's been a rough year.
Where do you get the dividend annualized return over 10 years to be 2% for DG? Or what am I missing?
This was huge and appreciated
And even worse about Dollar General, most of them are garbage to shop at. You can get a 3 dollar tube to float in the pool and some chef Boyardee
This is my favorite video that you released today
Why didnt you show Tesla's EPS growth? Or Earnings growth?
I panic sold DG and vici at the beginning of the year. Waiting patiently now. Learning
Would LOVE to see a fresh look at DG in a new video given the recent earnings news and accompanying price drop. Is this a case of the thesis changing or being disproven? Or is this an example of where we shouldn’t “fall into hate” with a company?
Was just thinking this, given Joe’s recent negative video on DG.
DG does a lot a business. A LOT. Small town America loves them. Great call out.
I like $DG I would like to get it cheaper though.. did a deep dive on it a few months ago, great company
Please like Joe's video about the ultimate fundamentals that really create value in companies. He brings it back to what matters: Profit !
Then, using those Profits Wisely.
very good video
@joseph Carlson well your on the right track with this video but your example is a bit misleading. It's true income is where returns come from but the problem with Dollar General is they are going about it by destroying equity at the same time. When you buy back shares at levels above book value and continue to have a massive debt load it's going to bite shareholders in the butt. If you notice, shareholder equity has trended downward over the past three years. While buying back shares is smart if future cashflows increase, its not smart when you have over 200% debt to equity.
good argument. I agree with your thesis. 🤔it looks like DG management loves dancing with tambourines. The mambo jumbo share buyback scheme was run by the CEO of Restoration Hardware Inc., Gary Friedman. From 2001 to 2017, he diluted the company's shareholders every year from 23.85 million shares in 2001 to 40.8 million shares in 2017. Then, from 2017 to July 2019, he abruptly repurchased shares from 40.8 to 18.47 million shares. But the main time bomb in this situation was that 2/3 of the ransom was financed by debt instruments. Then, until August 2021, the share price dived to $744.56. And what do you think he was doing all the time while the share price was in the sky? Look at the insider dealings of the company, you will see that he personally sold his own shares for about or more than $1 billion. On Wikipedia, his fortune is estimated at $ 1.2 billion (he still holds more than 10% of the company's shares). He went into pure financial engineering, instead of helping with the development and expansion of an interesting business model with these amounts of debt (Sale of accessories through luxury restaurants and places of authentic relaxation, customers rest in advance on furniture that they see, touch, feel, test in practice and come to the idea of a conscious purchase is an original approach to sales). By the way, after July 2019 until today, he again diluted shareholders from 18.47 million shares to 24.48 million shares on December 7,2022. With this dismissive attitude, he made a fortune for his retirement.That's the whole story with an example in a nutshell.
@@RickWize Wow, that paints an entirely different picture than what Joseph was claiming. This is why it's important not to just look at the numbers without digging a bit deeper.
@@exploitinvesting222Exactly.Also Sven Carlin made a couple videos about RH's Ceo and his mambo-jambo buyback purposes. it is always necessary to be attentive and careful about the details of companies, the devil is always buried in small details. There is such a phrase: Negligence in trifles will destroy great deeds. I always remind myself of this so that I don't fall victim to my lizard brain, as Terry Burnham wrote in his book "Mean Markets and the Lizard Brain".
Great Video Jospeh - Don’t buy the Hype - Research Great Companies with Predictable Cash Flows - Usually, Boring is Best! 😅
Definitely your best video
I prefer boring stocks but price appreciation. Just like SCHW. It went up a lot without much attention
I think a lot of retail investors fall for the story. Often, boring companies make the best investments. One of my best long-term investments is TSCO. Easy to understand business model combined with flawless execution.
Nice! Just recently picked up my first share. Can't wait to start adding to it.
Joseph, please cover ODFL STOCK
Hi Joseph, THX for this great content. Have you seen The Playlist on Netflix? The story behind Spotify.
You will say that selling was a good idea. Look episode 5, the partner, at around minute 16, the guy asks : where your return will come from? Listen and …
Joseph what's your outlook on costo now?
Hi Carlson! Can you make a video showing your portfolio and stocks in it. It’s been a while you don’t give us an update on that thanks!
Should’ve looked at the returns on Tesla and Nvidia. After all returns come from earnings growth in the long run.