Very good points and analysis. Going in favour of increasing prices are the lack of building new developments (future supply crunch) and lower interest rates (lower carrying costs fuelling demand).
Thank you for your videos, John. As a real estate investor, I just wanted to add some perspective to the idea that real estate may become a “boring” investment. Real estate remains a strong, long-term investment, especially with careful cash flow management. Canada-and particularly Toronto-is an incredibly desirable place to live. If you compare Toronto’s cost of living to other major global cities, it’s actually not as high, and the city consistently ranks among the top desirable places within one of the most attractive countries. While high interest rates are certainly a challenge, it’s part of a global economic cycle that isn’t unique to Toronto. Immigration adjustments will also have far-reaching impacts-not just on the job market and services but on housing supply as well. Canceled or delayed housing projects could create further shortages, which may, in turn, support demand for existing properties. Real estate continues to be a viable investment with the right approach to cash flow, even amidst these economic fluctuations.
So how do you think the Bank of Canada's recent 50 basis point interest rate cut will impact the housing market, especially in cities like Toronto and Vancouver?
I think it'll boost sales temporarily, but reduced immigration targets will slow down price appreciation. My cousin just bought a condo in Toronto and is worried about the market.
invest money in stocks and wait for perfect home. Stocks have average return of 8%. Home prices will only grow 0%-2% for the next 6 years. Conservatives will make sure of this.
I have a question? According to stats we have 16+ million housing units in Canada. Average replacement age of unit is 45 year old ( I found it on internet). So, that means that we have to build 350 000 units per year just to maintain existing number of housing units .... am I missing something? Please explain if possible.
When we were in a slow summer all I heard was how buyers will be buying in September/ October. But all you got was more listings but nothing great to chose from. If a flood of listings come in the spring it will only increase the supply that much more, hope you get your demand to go with it. Otherwise it's more disappointment for those easy gains of the past
The biggest factor in the housing market is unemployment. And this metric is going up and won't stop going up in the short to mid-term. It doesn't matter how much the BOC cuts rates or if we have 100 year CMHC mortgages. If people are unemployed, they won't be buying homes. What I can see though is the homeless crisis getting much worse.
I think a couple years of flat growth isnt nor gonna do much for affordability long term when were so far behind builds relative to population... I can see the immigration change affecting cities with a lot of temporary residents (like Brampton) more so because rental demand also hurts investors buying power. I dont think the general National Housing market is gonna severely pull back from this. More likely prices will stagnate or increase slowly for the next 1-2 years as rates stay higher than in pandemic but i dont see further drops given were still im a structural housing shortage
Lol! 5YR Canada Bond Yield is already pricing in 50bps cut in December and then a gradual decrease in 2025. 5YR currently around 3% add another 1.2% to 1.5% to get 5YR fixed rate
If you are a working class and decided to put all your savings into first down payment, please consider if you got unemployment may be in a few years, how long can you sustain while repaying your mortgage? The current global economy is unstable, please leave aside some money instead of pouring all your reserves into the down payment.
The rate cut is just a reflection of how out of touch the Liberals really are, we’re in a financial free fall. The housing market is imploding, inflation is becoming hyper, this country is doomed.
Interest rates coming down, new home construction wayy down, and immigration even with cuts still fairly high. I think home prices and rental prices are more than likely going to go up substantially this upcoming spring and summer.
Construction is way up! Starts are way down. What is in the pipeline is massive coming on line next year and the year after. All of the stuff they've been working on for the past few years is coming online next year and the year after. Starts are years out 2027 - 2030 If interest rates are a factor for someone, they will wait for them to bottom out. Why get a mortgage and watch rates drop by 150 bp over the next six months?
@@datruth4766 Wrong. Pre-construction sales have been dead for the past 2 years. This means nothing in the pipeline in 2 years and years after that. Massive supply shortage in 2 years.
Very good points and analysis. Going in favour of increasing prices are the lack of building new developments (future supply crunch) and lower interest rates (lower carrying costs fuelling demand).
Bravo... !!!
Very sincere input explaining dynamics of the housing market....making future trends more clear... ❤❤🎉🎉🎉
Thank you for your videos, John. As a real estate investor, I just wanted to add some perspective to the idea that real estate may become a “boring” investment. Real estate remains a strong, long-term investment, especially with careful cash flow management. Canada-and particularly Toronto-is an incredibly desirable place to live. If you compare Toronto’s cost of living to other major global cities, it’s actually not as high, and the city consistently ranks among the top desirable places within one of the most attractive countries.
While high interest rates are certainly a challenge, it’s part of a global economic cycle that isn’t unique to Toronto. Immigration adjustments will also have far-reaching impacts-not just on the job market and services but on housing supply as well. Canceled or delayed housing projects could create further shortages, which may, in turn, support demand for existing properties. Real estate continues to be a viable investment with the right approach to cash flow, even amidst these economic fluctuations.
So how do you think the Bank of Canada's recent 50 basis point interest rate cut will impact the housing market, especially in cities like Toronto and Vancouver?
I think it'll boost sales temporarily, but reduced immigration targets will slow down price appreciation. My cousin just bought a condo in Toronto and is worried about the market.
Yeah, fewer immigrants mean less demand for housing. I've seen fewer international students renting apartments near universities.
Lower mortgage rates could increase buying power. However, the rate cut's impact on variable-rate mortgages will be more significant.
invest money in stocks and wait for perfect home. Stocks have average return of 8%. Home prices will only grow 0%-2% for the next 6 years. Conservatives will make sure of this.
@@TheDuke792 100k fewer immigrants will not mean anything for the market, most new immigrants are at least 3 years from buying anyway.
Great insights on how these big changes could affect the market!
Well explained
This is a great and balanced take.
I have a question? According to stats we have 16+ million housing units in Canada. Average replacement age of unit is 45 year old ( I found it on internet). So, that means that we have to build 350 000 units per year just to maintain existing number of housing units .... am I missing something? Please explain if possible.
Sounds like a MASSIVE flood of listings will be coming in spring 2025.
When we were in a slow summer all I heard was how buyers will be buying in September/ October. But all you got was more listings but nothing great to chose from. If a flood of listings come in the spring it will only increase the supply that much more, hope you get your demand to go with it. Otherwise it's more disappointment for those easy gains of the past
Pretty bizarre, people were buying when the rates were higher, what on earth is that? Good job bank of Canada, you imploded the market.
John, when a single detached property list for 1,500 sqft does that area include the garage area
Square footage only includes the house and it should also only refer to the above ground square footage. Not the basement.
The biggest factor in the housing market is unemployment. And this metric is going up and won't stop going up in the short to mid-term. It doesn't matter how much the BOC cuts rates or if we have 100 year CMHC mortgages. If people are unemployed, they won't be buying homes. What I can see though is the homeless crisis getting much worse.
I think a couple years of flat growth isnt nor gonna do much for affordability long term when were so far behind builds relative to population...
I can see the immigration change affecting cities with a lot of temporary residents (like Brampton) more so because rental demand also hurts investors buying power.
I dont think the general National Housing market is gonna severely pull back from this. More likely prices will stagnate or increase slowly for the next 1-2 years as rates stay higher than in pandemic but i dont see further drops given were still im a structural housing shortage
Lol! 5YR Canada Bond Yield is already pricing in 50bps cut in December and then a gradual decrease in 2025. 5YR currently around 3% add another 1.2% to 1.5% to get 5YR fixed rate
I love how Dr. P says “you don’t need a PhD to figure out what that does for housing” 😂 Is that something people with PhD’s say John? 😉
Haha, I think I've been using that line for some time :)
If you are a working class and decided to put all your savings into first down payment, please consider if you got unemployment may be in a few years, how long can you sustain while repaying your mortgage? The current global economy is unstable, please leave aside some money instead of pouring all your reserves into the down payment.
Take the interest rate into negative and market still not going anywhere!
No impact at all. The market will remain sluggish, slowly dying.....
The rate cut is just a reflection of how out of touch the Liberals really are, we’re in a financial free fall. The housing market is imploding, inflation is becoming hyper, this country is doomed.
Vb
Interest rates coming down, new home construction wayy down, and immigration even with cuts still fairly high. I think home prices and rental prices are more than likely going to go up substantially this upcoming spring and summer.
Where the unemployment numbers are at next year will tell the story.
Sentiment is everything.
Construction is way up! Starts are way down. What is in the pipeline is massive coming on line next year and the year after.
All of the stuff they've been working on for the past few years is coming online next year and the year after. Starts are years out 2027 - 2030
If interest rates are a factor for someone, they will wait for them to bottom out. Why get a mortgage and watch rates drop by 150 bp over the next six months?
@@datruth4766 Wrong. Pre-construction sales have been dead for the past 2 years. This means nothing in the pipeline in 2 years and years after that. Massive supply shortage in 2 years.
Lol
Yeah, in a fairytale world. Opposite is going to happen ands is already happening.
This guy knows Nothing