I dont understand sometimes....if ppl dont enjoy watching or if they are going to be rude about an "OPINION"..., DONT COMMENT OR WATCH!. Sinple as that. Stop complaining when its something you clicked on and watched in its entirety. Its like going to mcdonalds and ordering a big mac, eating all but 1 bite and demanding a full refund...Smh 😂🤦♀️
I’ve got a laugh at this probably one of the best comments in a long time love the analogy by the way. ❤😊 and best of all you earned a pinned comment from me.
Thank you so much and I really appreciate this very much. I am definitely gonna have to keep an eye on the tropics now since we have that disturbance that really looks to develop now there’s a lot of stronger signals coming in on our 0Z guidance. Please stay tuned for more updates and I’ll have a video out this afternoon. September 17th
Man don’t worry about these people and their complaining! You’re very upfront that this is simply what the models are showing and it’s your own personal opinion on how it might actually play out. I greatly appreciate the information because it gives me and others a chance to get gas, food, water, check my roof, windows, generators, etc. and start to form a plan 3,4,5 days prior to the masses who are waiting for their local weather channel to tell them 3-5 days before. if And if it doesn’t play out the way the models show, those are things I should probably do anyway! This just serves as a great reminder.
I SO APPRECIATE YOUR BROADCAST, DAVID, AS DO MANY OTHERS WHO LIKE HAVING AN EARLY HEADS-UP ON ANY & ALL ACTIVITY IN THE GULF, SO WE CAN HAVE TIME TO PREPARE! THIS IS POTENTIALLY LIFE SAVING INFORMATION AND AS A RESIDENT OF THE GULF COAST & SURVIVOR OF HURRICANE MICHAEL (OCT 10, 2018) I AM SO GRATEFUL TO HAVE FOUND THIS CHANNEL! KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK DAVE!
Hi David! Just wanted to reiterate how much I appreciate your dedicated service in providing all of us with the latest and full spectrum content & information on storms, and more importantly, any & all upcoming storms too!! You already know that my son is a quadriplegic (paralyzed from the neck down) and we NEED as MUCH advanced notice as humanly possible because it’s a huge deal for us to pack up and get out of the area if a bad storm is heading our way, (& even worse if we’re stuck to try and get thru it at home) but we would not have that added time without your reporting and updates which HELPS US make the necessary preparations for doing what is best for us. What’s the worst that could happen?…that it ends up being a fizzled out nothing-burger? Then even better! Besides, who wants to find out 2-3 days before a big storm or hurricane is coming anyway? Not me! The whole point of storm tracking is to keeping an eye out for those storms lurking around the corner, and receive MORE advanced notice- & the more notice, the BETTER! If anyone has a problem with HOW YOU choose to run YOUR OWN CHANNEL, then perhaps they should find someone else to watch because how I see it, your reporting is not only extremely invaluable, but immensely appreciated!! I know a few of your viewers are a bit prickly because I myself have been attacked by two of them regarding my comment that I made TO YOU personally a while back (which threw me for a loop) so I know how rotten some people are, and can be. 😩 But they aren’t going to deter ME from doing or saying whatever I want! 🤨 (Obviously) One more thing, like my sweet southern Cherokee grandmother once said to me when I was feeling really bad & actually cried about what others where saying about me many years ago at one time in my life, and my grandmothers words shocked me! I’ll never forget it as I cried to her about it, & she turned to me & said (in her sweet soft spoken voice), “F*ck em all Sherry, f* ck em all!” I almost fell off my chair!! And that was the first and last time I had EVER heard her use a swear word OR ever say anything negative about ANYONE- but she’s been right all along- so although she’s no longer here with us, 😇her words and her principles are! And I can still hear her strong southern accent loud and clear! So in true “Doris Morning Glory” fashion David, I pass this on to you: “F*ck em all David…f*ck em al!” 😆 If anything, I hope that you at least get a chuckle out of that!! And NEVER let them rain on your parade, steal your light OR your thunder! After all, you do report on the weather! 😉 ✨✌🏽💜
Oh my gosh, I almost wanna cry because hearing your son that is paralyzed from the neck down that really must be hard for you guys when you have to evacuate because of this I just hope and hope that nothing big is headed your way because that would be a lot to pack up and stress 😢 I don’t tell people about my disability, but I have autism and I want to just be blessed that I can talk. I can walk and I could even drive. 😢 also I want to thank you for the awesome comment saying that I’m one of the best and I’m very detailed. This comment really got to me and love you lots. 😊
Good job on looking forward. People need to stop being scared , get their head out of the sand, get prepared. These concerns are validated given the temperatures in the waters, and its hurricane season helloooo. Thank you for your devotion and effort to trying to warn people to safety before it’s too late late.
Pretty good presentation David. Agree, like I said before, def keep your eyes on the Gulf! I noticed that system in the Gulf last night. Also, I think that "IF" this system stays true, the timing maybe adjusted or fluctuate before or after the 26th, BUT, I believe there will be something spewing out from the Gulf period!! Great job David. Thanks for posting
Thank you so much, Colleen you’re really awesome and yes, timing will of course change as well as positioning and intensity. But I’ll tell you something if the GFS ends up being correct it is not going to end well. 😮
I don’t like going super Duper far out that because I am so dang confident about a potential gulf Hurricane coming and the time of year that were in that’s why I went all the way out to beyond 10 days
@@WeatherForce2024. Ok I like you because you tell the good bad and the ugly on the Hurricanes and I like that about you and don't try to down play it or try to minimize. You are very honest.
@@Barbara-d5t8n thank you so much. I felt like I went a bit over the top on this, but gosh, the last two GFS model runs are giving me nightmares. I mean a 934 mbar system in the gulf yeah if people have been provoking how under done this hurricane season has been I bet you 50 million bucks that we get a cat for or another cat five before the season closes.
@@WeatherForce2024 Me and my husband said the same thing. I was in Hurricane Katrina and Ike in Galveston Texas. Some people take them lightly but when you been in 2 bad Hurricane like I was you take that very seriously. My friend die in Ike she drowned in her apartment.
I like the way you tell the weather, so I subscribed to you're channel... I'm curious to see how accurate your guess is on this subject. And no worries if you're not.
I try to be as accurate as I can, but this Atlantic hurricane season has thrown some monkey wrenches in, but I feel pretty good about what maybe developing on the other side in the north western Caribbean part of a fairly strong central American gyre. Anyways, thank you for subscribing. 😊
I don't' know where you are located but you don't remember Hurricane Michael the first category 5 hurricane in October that hit the Florida Panhandle on the 10th of October 2018 with winds of 160mph?
Thanks great information I learned to never let my guard down living on the coast all my life I rode out Rita on September 23 24 hopefully that doesn't happen but it's always good to listen to great information like this
You’re very welcome, and I really do pray that this does not become a major hurricane in the gulf but unfortunately chances are increasing as the latest GFS still wants a major hurricane in the gulf. 😢
There’s a lot of uncertainty regarding this possible storm. It’s definitely something to watch for a while. Where will it impact exactly remains to be seen.
There are a lot of uncertainty but the fact that the GFS and the Canadian model see this storm developing into a powerful hurricane is pretty alarming.
Ida came over Cuba like this. Jumped to a borderline cat 5 in less than 2 days. We got slammed hard by Ida here in south Louisiana and what you just showed makes me feel physically ill.
High pressure weak in mid atlantic***depends how fast and south next one develops but i see plenty of open space betwen 30 and 30 lat/// it could move wherever it wants from mexico to Florida, Cmc has been showing a florida impact all day will se in the coming days
David, im new to your channel. So idk how accurately you're, but ik you're more accurate then mainstream. What would u say the probability of this is to develop? Im in Louisiana, we left for Ida, and we left for Katrina both were very bad but obviously by far Katrina was the worst. Also i doubt the levees will hold for this ones. Also ty so much for everything u do, i wish mainstream news would tell people in advance, that way everyone can prepare.
Right now, I give this a 20% chance of tropical development, but I give it less than one percent chance of it becoming a major hurricane based on the control deterministic forecast. Also the ARC index measures ensemble trends and how many members predict a certain intensity so in this case it’s a 0.8 which is very low that means 0.8 of the 21 GEFS ensembles predict a major hurricane. The ARC index goes from 0 to 5. Also, thank you for subscribing and I will try my best at Venus accurate as I can. It’s been a challenge this hurricane season as you know.
@@WeatherForce2024 thx you so much, that all seems about right. Thanks for all ya do and everyone else who also does Tropical weather updates. You and everyone else out here always saving lives. Glad I also found your channel, I'll always watch it close. Tropical Tidbits, I'm constantly checking like once a week or every few days. Also God Bless and thx again for all the info❤️🙏
I forecasted this 2 weeks ago. Lol. All you gotta do is look at historical data. 90% chance to see major hurricane in gulf of Mexico in last 2 weeks of Sept
I’m hoping to release my winter forecast at the end of September. I’m waiting for the climate prediction center to release their updated winter outlooks. Also, I will start talking about theweather in the United States once the hurricane season closes down, which usually tends to happen in late October or early November. 😊
I feel like we are gonna have Helene before this and we will get to the I name Isaac and Then end the month with Joyce This will be Another Ian trust me and this season will be a more active 2022 I think Isaac will affect Central America Cuba Florida and a few areas on the east coast
I know this is really, really unfortunate, pretty much except for Gordon. Every storm has made landfall, including potential tropical cyclone eight that was not officially named, but it did earn a PTC.
@@robbje when I mean a curve to the north and the north east would happen somewhere in the golf and will see if it pulls in Ian track and moves somewhere inland over the Carolinas, but I’m not even thinking about that right now because that is beyond the 10 to 16 day forecast.
Oh yeah, I did not realize that yeah, if this thing develops as what the GFS shows, it’s not only going to be a cat four or a cat five hurricane but also it’s worth noting how large the wind-field will be.
The 18z of the euro ai just released, it does something weird with the system. It goes over the yucutan peninsula into the gulf, and then it curves south.
he has to warn Us, so we can stop drywalling on ft Myers beach and Sanibel Island from Hurricane Ian, , thanks david for Stopping the madness for a while
Right now there’s a lot of variability in the location and intensity of the disturbance and so right now there’s a lot of wiggle room. All I can say is prepare for lots of rain and breezy winds by the middle of next week.
David, you know what would separate you and stop people from questioning your videos? Explain why the models are showing these signs besides Calvin wave and La-Niña. I can tell you why, because South America is a huge moisture bubble, and if the sea was favorable year round and the atmosphere was also favorable year round then we would be seeing hurricanes directly from South America. This is why I preach the importance of radar imagery and climate conditions, because if you look closely you will find that there’s some spin in the atmosphere around Southern Peru and Bolivia around the city of La Paz. It’s slowly becoming better organized and will continue to increase in a low pressure system which would develop into a monsoon storm. The warmth from the equator will make the air unstable and that’s why models starting to show signs of this. But these low pressure systems are very hard to predict, and don’t be surprised if all models drop developing this system and then pick it up again later. That’s why models this far out is not reliable, and the Euro doesn’t understand how the Central American Gyre works, so they’re slow to pick it up. But the Canadian model is pretty good with South American Gyre because the province has territory in the region, and it has to protect their infrastructure. More are good tools for close range guidance, but when it’s this far out and you want to warn people in advance then start doing some detective work. Then people will understand why you’re sounding the alarm early
What do you mean we had Helene already that hit North Carolina. Never mind that’s right it was just a PTC. I’m getting ahead of myself. I guess so. Yes, what forms in the Caribbean would be our H storm.
3:44 "I'm not agreeing with it right now" continues to make a 18 minute video about that one model run and base his whole title and thumbnail around it.
You're probably correct.....there is a weather modification company from Germany stationed close to that area....Monkey Werx here on UA-cam talks and shows all the flight data on this subject and pretty much anything else in our skies.
@@jaysbaby2012 Wow.. great info. I'll have to look into that particular on.. I've kn9own for many years that they've have HAARP and other Weather modification weapons. There's even a secret but not secret Global governing committee that made treaties and agreements not to use them on other countries but can use them within their own countries. The reason why i said "Secret but not soo secret" is because, even though they've made it known to the public. Most people still don't know about it. If fact they've demonstrated on video how they can create rain, floods, droughts and intensify and guide storms and hurricanes. But i'm sure they've probably long ago took those vids off of UA-cam. Btw, this is off the topic. But can i ask where your screen name come from?
Yes Fridays reporting by MonkeyWerx showed the actual flight information on two weather modification planes- one was a German plane flying off the coast of Africa near the Western Sahara and out to sea with a a storm, and also a German weather modification plane messing around over Barbados and it just so happens to be the same “storms” being discussed here and there that may be heading our way… I’ve been a LONG time subscriber of MonkeyWerx for years now, he is great, ex military from Texas and has all of the active flight programs, with all craft and flight path information with flight numbers, who’s flying them, etc using Sky Glass a flight program that reports in live time, of each and every craft in the skies at all times, both private and commercial, as well as all military aircraft from every country around the world. I don’t usually go around mentioning it anywhere (especially here on YT) as I have already been booted off this platform before and have been threatened to go even further if I don’t curb what I say…. But this is public information and although I can’t determine exactly what the true purpose of anybody’s doing up there, it’s nice to know that I can receive a lot of information about what is happening in the skies and then get to make my own conclusions about what I’ve learned from multiple, reliable sources. Knowledge is power! ✨✌🏽
Hey King, how’s everything and I understand where you’re coming from but if the Canadian continues to show this and the GFS, unfortunately my prediction may come to reality and let’s hope it doesn’t because if it does, it’s not gonna end well for the coast.
Move out of Florida immediately. It's going to be coming and coming hard. Unfortunately insurance is don't cover 100% anymore so you will be paying a hefty penny out of your pocket to reveal your homes
Sorry Dave, I did not enjoy this. As an Ian survivor, I really don’t need this PTSD right now. Just put the finishing touches on repairing my home completely.
I am sorry you did not enjoy this video, but it’s my job at warning the public for a potential system that develops in the Caribbean where does that head? Nobody knows, but there are signals that it heads into the golf but now where in the golf does it impact someone that is to be announced in 4 to 6 days. Also, I understand you have PTSD over hurricane Ian that hurricane was a monster that was just unbelievably strong, but it does show the potential that the golf has even in late September.
There are things such as weather weapons. Anyone who knows about this would know it's sort of code that they're going to try to cause or create something to hit the Gulf of Mexico. I guess all the other storms didn't do the damage they wanted.
I dont understand sometimes....if ppl dont enjoy watching or if they are going to be rude about an "OPINION"..., DONT COMMENT OR WATCH!. Sinple as that. Stop complaining when its something you clicked on and watched in its entirety. Its like going to mcdonalds and ordering a big mac, eating all but 1 bite and demanding a full refund...Smh 😂🤦♀️
I’ve got a laugh at this probably one of the best comments in a long time love the analogy by the way. ❤😊 and best of all you earned a pinned comment from me.
i know. it's getting old. David does an amazing job. this ch is essential for me!
@@WeatherForce2024😂😂
Please be nice.
more like going to a nascar race then complaining that it's so loud near the track. F
Just Discovered This Channel. I Subscribed Because There Is A 100% Chance That I Will Continue Watching. Appreciate The Long Term Forecast.
Thank you so much and I really appreciate this very much. I am definitely gonna have to keep an eye on the tropics now since we have that disturbance that really looks to develop now there’s a lot of stronger signals coming in on our 0Z guidance. Please stay tuned for more updates and I’ll have a video out this afternoon. September 17th
Man don’t worry about these people and their complaining! You’re very upfront that this is simply what the models are showing and it’s your own personal opinion on how it might actually play out. I greatly appreciate the information because it gives me and others a chance to get gas, food, water, check my roof, windows, generators, etc. and start to form a plan 3,4,5 days prior to the masses who are waiting for their local weather channel to tell them 3-5 days before. if And if it doesn’t play out the way the models show, those are things I should probably do anyway! This just serves as a great reminder.
I SO APPRECIATE YOUR BROADCAST, DAVID, AS DO MANY OTHERS WHO LIKE HAVING AN EARLY HEADS-UP ON ANY & ALL ACTIVITY IN THE GULF, SO WE CAN HAVE TIME TO PREPARE!
THIS IS POTENTIALLY LIFE SAVING INFORMATION AND AS A RESIDENT OF THE GULF COAST & SURVIVOR OF HURRICANE MICHAEL (OCT 10, 2018) I AM SO GRATEFUL TO HAVE FOUND THIS CHANNEL!
KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK DAVE!
@@suzanneh.396 time to prepare? lol it’s hurricane season love you should have prepared months ago!
I am presently living in South Louisiana and I value your forecasts and predictions predictions.
Thanks very much
You doing a great job David. I always enjoy your thorough updates. ❤
Thank you so much. I really appreciate this very much. I’m glad you always enjoy my updates. 😊
David: I love your channel. I rarely miss a video,
Thank you so much bud and glad you never miss a video. 😊
Hi David! Just wanted to reiterate how much I appreciate your dedicated service in providing all of us with the latest and full spectrum content & information on storms, and more importantly, any & all upcoming storms too!! You already know that my son is a quadriplegic (paralyzed from the neck down) and we NEED as MUCH advanced notice as humanly possible because it’s a huge deal for us to pack up and get out of the area if a bad storm is heading our way, (& even worse if we’re stuck to try and get thru it at home) but we would not have that added time without your reporting and updates which HELPS US make the necessary preparations for doing what is best for us. What’s the worst that could happen?…that it ends up being a fizzled out nothing-burger? Then even better! Besides, who wants to find out 2-3 days before a big storm or hurricane is coming anyway? Not me! The whole point of storm tracking is to keeping an eye out for those storms lurking around the corner, and receive MORE advanced notice- & the more notice, the BETTER! If anyone has a problem with HOW YOU choose to run YOUR OWN CHANNEL, then perhaps they should find someone else to watch because how I see it, your reporting is not only extremely invaluable, but immensely appreciated!! I know a few of your viewers are a bit prickly because I myself have been attacked by two of them regarding my comment that I made TO YOU personally a while back (which threw me for a loop) so I know how rotten some people are, and can be. 😩 But they aren’t going to deter ME from doing or saying whatever I want! 🤨 (Obviously)
One more thing, like my sweet southern Cherokee grandmother once said to me when I was feeling really bad & actually cried about what others where saying about me many years ago at one time in my life, and my grandmothers words shocked me! I’ll never forget it as I cried to her about it, & she turned to me & said (in her sweet soft spoken voice), “F*ck em all Sherry, f* ck em all!” I almost fell off my chair!! And that was the first and last time I had EVER heard her use a swear word OR ever say anything negative about ANYONE- but she’s been right all along- so although she’s no longer here with us, 😇her words and her principles are! And I can still hear her strong southern accent loud and clear! So in true “Doris Morning Glory” fashion David, I pass this on to you: “F*ck em all David…f*ck em al!” 😆 If anything, I hope that you at least get a chuckle out of that!! And NEVER let them rain on your parade, steal your light OR your thunder! After all, you do report on the weather! 😉 ✨✌🏽💜
Oh my gosh, I almost wanna cry because hearing your son that is paralyzed from the neck down that really must be hard for you guys when you have to evacuate because of this I just hope and hope that nothing big is headed your way because that would be a lot to pack up and stress 😢 I don’t tell people about my disability, but I have autism and I want to just be blessed that I can talk. I can walk and I could even drive. 😢 also I want to thank you for the awesome comment saying that I’m one of the best and I’m very detailed. This comment really got to me and love you lots. 😊
Thanks for the information. You do a great job. Keep it up we need more people like you.
Thanks, will do! 😊
Good job on looking forward. People need to stop being scared , get their head out of the sand, get prepared.
These concerns are validated given the temperatures in the waters, and its hurricane season helloooo.
Thank you for your devotion and effort to trying to warn people to safety before it’s too late late.
Pretty good presentation David. Agree, like I said before, def keep your eyes on the Gulf! I noticed that system in the Gulf last night. Also, I think that "IF" this system stays true, the timing maybe adjusted or fluctuate before or after the 26th, BUT, I believe there will be something spewing out from the Gulf period!! Great job David. Thanks for posting
Thank you so much, Colleen you’re really awesome and yes, timing will of course change as well as positioning and intensity. But I’ll tell you something if the GFS ends up being correct it is not going to end well. 😮
@@WeatherForce2024 Totally agree with you David.
Thanks for the update David 👍
Your welcome
Pensacola, getting a little worried, but I'm ready.
Good afternoon to you too
The Central American Gyre is known to spit out monsters late September early October so it wouldn’t be so far fetched at this point.
Yeah, that’s what I’m thinking too latest ensembles are going a little more concerning in the 18z run cycle.
I'm glad u show far out look we need to no that for sure
I don’t like going super Duper far out that because I am so dang confident about a potential gulf Hurricane coming and the time of year that were in that’s why I went all the way out to beyond 10 days
Thanks for the updates 😊
your super welcome.
Wassup david! This is definitely one of those gfs 18z fantasy runs, but contributes to the overall trend this late September.
Yeah, I am really watching model trend closely because wow this could be a big big hurricane if it develops as what the last two GFS model runs show.
Thank you for providing this information 😊
My pleasure 😊
Love your videos!!! Can't wait to see something coming to Miami ...
Thank you so much and please don’t witch cast for something big for Florida. We do not need anymore disasters after Ian.
Good job, David
thanks.
This is so far out, i'm gonna hope it is wrong. Thanks for the rest of the update David!
Thank you !! Love your channel always watching you are the best!
thanks so much, glad you love these detailed tropical reports.
New Subscriber. Thanks for the update.
Thank you for subscribing and welcome to the channel by the way. 😊❤
Thank you for the update. I live in Louisiana and I need all the information that you have. Thank you for what you do I very much appreciate. 😂
I appreciate that so much and I’ll keep you updated every day. 😊
@@WeatherForce2024. Ok I like you because you tell the good bad and the ugly on the Hurricanes and I like that about you and don't try to down play it or try to minimize. You are very honest.
@@Barbara-d5t8n thank you so much. I felt like I went a bit over the top on this, but gosh, the last two GFS model runs are giving me nightmares. I mean a 934 mbar system in the gulf yeah if people have been provoking how under done this hurricane season has been I bet you 50 million bucks that we get a cat for or another cat five before the season closes.
@@WeatherForce2024 Me and my husband said the same thing. I was in Hurricane Katrina and Ike in Galveston Texas. Some people take them lightly but when you been in 2 bad Hurricane like I was you take that very seriously. My friend die in Ike she drowned in her apartment.
I like the way you tell the weather, so I subscribed to you're channel... I'm curious to see how accurate your guess is on this subject. And no worries if you're not.
I try to be as accurate as I can, but this Atlantic hurricane season has thrown some monkey wrenches in, but I feel pretty good about what maybe developing on the other side in the north western Caribbean part of a fairly strong central American gyre. Anyways, thank you for subscribing. 😊
You are a great American keep up the amazing work
I can't remember ever having a hurricane in October but the weather is changing anything can happen
Hurricane Michael in 2018, made landfall on Oct 10 as the 2nd strongest storm to ever hit Florida with 155+ mph winds.
It was almost Halloween when Sandy hit
I don't' know where you are located but you don't remember Hurricane Michael the first category 5 hurricane in October that hit the Florida Panhandle on the 10th of October 2018 with winds of 160mph?
Also Hurricane Zeta Oct 29th 2020. Ruined Halloween and threw down a tree in my kitchen.
Thanks for this update! 😊
No problem 😊
Luv you Dave ❤
Thanks brother
Thanks great information I learned to never let my guard down living on the coast all my life I rode out Rita on September 23 24 hopefully that doesn't happen but it's always good to listen to great information like this
You’re very welcome, and I really do pray that this does not become a major hurricane in the gulf but unfortunately chances are increasing as the latest GFS still wants a major hurricane in the gulf. 😢
There’s a lot of uncertainty regarding this possible storm. It’s definitely something to watch for a while. Where will it impact exactly remains to be seen.
There are a lot of uncertainty but the fact that the GFS and the Canadian model see this storm developing into a powerful hurricane is pretty alarming.
Thanks.
You're welcome 😊
Ida came over Cuba like this. Jumped to a borderline cat 5 in less than 2 days. We got slammed hard by Ida here in south Louisiana and what you just showed makes me feel physically ill.
Oh yeah, I know the 18z GFS is bull crap scary. That is why I’m not taking my little eyes off of the Caribbean through at least the middle of October.
@@WeatherForce2024
Thanks for your concern.
Better safe than sorry!
It would be WORSE to not be prepared in advance!!!
thanks for the info
No problem! 😊
High pressure weak in mid atlantic***depends how fast and south next one develops but i see plenty of open space betwen 30 and 30 lat/// it could move wherever it wants from mexico to Florida, Cmc has been showing a florida impact all day will se in the coming days
David, im new to your channel. So idk how accurately you're, but ik you're more accurate then mainstream. What would u say the probability of this is to develop? Im in Louisiana, we left for Ida, and we left for Katrina both were very bad but obviously by far Katrina was the worst. Also i doubt the levees will hold for this ones.
Also ty so much for everything u do, i wish mainstream news would tell people in advance, that way everyone can prepare.
Right now, I give this a 20% chance of tropical development, but I give it less than one percent chance of it becoming a major hurricane based on the control deterministic forecast. Also the ARC index measures ensemble trends and how many members predict a certain intensity so in this case it’s a 0.8 which is very low that means 0.8 of the 21 GEFS ensembles predict a major hurricane. The ARC index goes from 0 to 5.
Also, thank you for subscribing and I will try my best at Venus accurate as I can. It’s been a challenge this hurricane season as you know.
@@WeatherForce2024 thx you so much, that all seems about right. Thanks for all ya do and everyone else who also does Tropical weather updates. You and everyone else out here always saving lives. Glad I also found your channel, I'll always watch it close. Tropical Tidbits, I'm constantly checking like once a week or every few days. Also God Bless and thx again for all the info❤️🙏
I forecasted this 2 weeks ago. Lol.
All you gotta do is look at historical data. 90% chance to see major hurricane in gulf of Mexico in last 2 weeks of Sept
Watching from Jamaica
Welcome!! 😊
I liked the video it was good to watch but When are you going to talk about the temperatures in the U.S
I’m hoping to release my winter forecast at the end of September. I’m waiting for the climate prediction center to release their updated winter outlooks. Also, I will start talking about theweather in the United States once the hurricane season closes down, which usually tends to happen in late October or early November. 😊
Thank you
You're welcome 😉
I feel like we are gonna have Helene before this and we will get to the I name Isaac and Then end the month with Joyce This will be Another Ian trust me and this season will be a more active 2022 I think Isaac will affect Central America Cuba Florida and a few areas on the east coast
So are you for sure this potential I name storm will be another Ian
@@johnnyfrancois9491idk but I have strong feelings cause this is a similar set up lol
@@Aleantwill07 I guess we shall see because these I name storms does scare me
This thing could hit anywhere in Florida if the trend continues
This is so far out, im gonna hope that it doesn't turn out this way. Thanks for the rest of the update David!
David can you go live tonight? The 18z gfs run was insane
If you watch the beginning portion of the video, I do a special 18z GFS model update
Tropical do dad,I love it!
lol 😆 thanks
No way that looks like a Micheal. The entire gulf don’t need anymore beryl, Debby, Francine like we need a break please
I know this is really, really unfortunate, pretty much except for Gordon. Every storm has made landfall, including potential tropical cyclone eight that was not officially named, but it did earn a PTC.
Been waiting for so long👍👌👌👌💀😏
The major hurricane is definitely possible, however I don’t trust the part where it’s stalling in the gulf
Oh yeah, I don’t believe that either a cat four or five stalling in the middle of the golf is déjà vu in the making
if you had to make a bet atm, which way do you think it goes? to the east or west?
I think it’s gonna curve to the right and turn to the north and the northeast
@@WeatherForce2024 without any impacts you mean? i'm in CT so just curious!
@@robbje when I mean a curve to the north and the north east would happen somewhere in the golf and will see if it pulls in Ian track and moves somewhere inland over the Carolinas, but I’m not even thinking about that right now because that is beyond the 10 to 16 day forecast.
The 18z GFS run wants a 934 mb Category 4 or 5 in the Gulf. It would have the same pressure as Beryl and it would be deeper than Ian. Holy.
Oh yeah, I did not realize that yeah, if this thing develops as what the GFS shows, it’s not only going to be a cat four or a cat five hurricane but also it’s worth noting how large the wind-field will be.
@@WeatherForce2024 David, could Sw Florida around Fort Myers be hit with another Cat 4 or 5, do you think?
The 18z of the euro ai just released, it does something weird with the system. It goes over the yucutan peninsula into the gulf, and then it curves south.
Yeah, we’ll see about that. There’s a lot of variability.
he has to warn Us, so we can stop drywalling on ft Myers beach and Sanibel Island from Hurricane Ian, , thanks david for Stopping the madness for a while
Eyes on Ecuador . They tend to stab north and sneak in
It’s going north
I’m ready for Miami to get something
If nothing forms, I'm never watching weather news again😂
What are you saying now🤔
Should we be concerned in the Cayman Islands? Could this be a hurricane before it comes to us ? 😮
Right now there’s a lot of variability in the location and intensity of the disturbance and so right now there’s a lot of wiggle room. All I can say is prepare for lots of rain and breezy winds by the middle of next week.
I love your channel 🫶🏾
Thank you so much 😊
David, you know what would separate you and stop people from questioning your videos? Explain why the models are showing these signs besides Calvin wave and La-Niña. I can tell you why, because South America is a huge moisture bubble, and if the sea was favorable year round and the atmosphere was also favorable year round then we would be seeing hurricanes directly from South America. This is why I preach the importance of radar imagery and climate conditions, because if you look closely you will find that there’s some spin in the atmosphere around Southern Peru and Bolivia around the city of La Paz. It’s slowly becoming better organized and will continue to increase in a low pressure system which would develop into a monsoon storm. The warmth from the equator will make the air unstable and that’s why models starting to show signs of this. But these low pressure systems are very hard to predict, and don’t be surprised if all models drop developing this system and then pick it up again later. That’s why models this far out is not reliable, and the Euro doesn’t understand how the Central American Gyre works, so they’re slow to pick it up. But the Canadian model is pretty good with South American Gyre because the province has territory in the region, and it has to protect their infrastructure. More are good tools for close range guidance, but when it’s this far out and you want to warn people in advance then start doing some detective work. Then people will understand why you’re sounding the alarm early
I understand on what your saying.
Helene will become major hurricane and hit land 😱…
What do you mean we had Helene already that hit North Carolina. Never mind that’s right it was just a PTC. I’m getting ahead of myself. I guess so. Yes, what forms in the Caribbean would be our H storm.
😢 😔 🙏🏻😰
3:44 "I'm not agreeing with it right now" continues to make a 18 minute video about that one model run and base his whole title and thumbnail around it.
I understand you’re not agreeing right now and that’s perfectly fine but I’m gonna continue making updates as long as this remains a concern.
In other words, they're going to use Weather weapons to create or try to cause something in the Gulf of Mexico.
You're probably correct.....there is a weather modification company from Germany stationed close to that area....Monkey Werx here on UA-cam talks and shows all the flight data on this subject and pretty much anything else in our skies.
@@jaysbaby2012 Wow.. great info. I'll have to look into that particular on.. I've kn9own for many years that they've have HAARP and other Weather modification weapons. There's even a secret but not secret Global governing committee that made treaties and agreements not to use them on other countries but can use them within their own countries.
The reason why i said "Secret but not soo secret" is because, even though they've made it known to the public. Most people still don't know about it. If fact they've demonstrated on video how they can create rain, floods, droughts and intensify and guide storms and hurricanes. But i'm sure they've probably long ago took those vids off of UA-cam. Btw, this is off the topic. But can i ask where your screen name come from?
Yes Fridays reporting by MonkeyWerx showed the actual flight information on two weather modification planes- one was a German plane flying off the coast of Africa near the Western Sahara and out to sea with a a storm, and also a German weather modification plane messing around over Barbados and it just so happens to be the same “storms” being discussed here and there that may be heading our way… I’ve been a LONG time subscriber of MonkeyWerx for years now, he is great, ex military from Texas and has all of the active flight programs, with all craft and flight path information with flight numbers, who’s flying them, etc using Sky Glass a flight program that reports in live time, of each and every craft in the skies at all times, both private and commercial, as well as all military aircraft from every country around the world. I don’t usually go around mentioning it anywhere (especially here on YT) as I have already been booted off this platform before and have been threatened to go even further if I don’t curb what I say….
But this is public information and although I can’t determine exactly what the true purpose of anybody’s doing up there, it’s nice to know that I can receive a lot of information about what is happening in the skies and then get to make my own conclusions about what I’ve learned from multiple, reliable sources. Knowledge is power!
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Do we need comments anymore?
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Say it isn't so
Why are you using AI?
Because I want to thoroughly look over all the deterministic models
@@WeatherForce2024 thanks 😊
Just stay away frm houston
This is not Houston Strom
Stick to the topic
As much as I like his channel weather is very unpredictable never know what it can do
Hey King, how’s everything and I understand where you’re coming from but if the Canadian continues to show this and the GFS, unfortunately my prediction may come to reality and let’s hope it doesn’t because if it does, it’s not gonna end well for the coast.
Move out of Florida immediately. It's going to be coming and coming hard. Unfortunately insurance is don't cover 100% anymore so you will be paying a hefty penny out of your pocket to reveal your homes
Its going to change in the 00z smh. Why even post this.
Signal of storm over location this far out, that’s why!
You’re predicting that the 00z run will not show it we will see about that.
because you look at the trends my god ppl are ridiculous
I would not follow the models he can’t pridict hurricanes that Won’t even happen
Sorry Dave, I did not enjoy this. As an Ian survivor, I really don’t need this PTSD right now. Just put the finishing touches on repairing my home completely.
I am sorry you did not enjoy this video, but it’s my job at warning the public for a potential system that develops in the Caribbean where does that head? Nobody knows, but there are signals that it heads into the golf but now where in the golf does it impact someone that is to be announced in 4 to 6 days. Also, I understand you have PTSD over hurricane Ian that hurricane was a monster that was just unbelievably strong, but it does show the potential that the golf has even in late September.
@@WeatherForce2024 Yeah well we got bullseyed at 150mph. No bueno. That’s one in a lifetime for me.
Same here in south Louisiana. Can’t explain that Ill feeling when your still rebuilding your house years later.
Ian was no joke. I lived in Sarasota, I don’t live in Florida anymore, and I am grateful for having people in my life that helped me get back home.
What are the water temps, please
Late Septembe into early october?? Really dude? You doom casters have to stop. That's so far away, no reason to do this for clicks.
There are things such as weather weapons. Anyone who knows about this would know it's sort of code that they're going to try to cause or create something to hit the Gulf of Mexico. I guess all the other storms didn't do the damage they wanted.
Meanwhile the whole country outside of the tropical storm is dry,boring weather
Yup and that’s why I’m not doing much of the United States weather right now at the moment, will save that for early/mid November ish.