Redfin CEO: People Don't Want to Sell They Have To Sell
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- Опубліковано 6 жов 2024
- This is a Data centric Analytical approach to the Nashville Tn Housing Market. We look at trends in active listings, median price, mortgage rates, contracts, rent rates
Ethan Flynn
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People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
Buy now, home prices will not go lower. If rates drop, you can refinance.
The government will have no choice but to print more notes and lower interest rates.
Well i think, home prices will need to fall by at least 40% before the market normalizes. If you do not know whether to buy a house or not, it is best you seek guidance from a well-experienced advisor for proper portfolio allocation. So far, that’s how I’ve stayed afloat over 5 years now, amassing nearly $1m in return on investments.
@@williamDonaldson432 this is quite huge! what have you invested in ? much more info needed please ...I think this is something I should do, but I've been stalling for a long time now. I don't really know which firm to work with; I feel they are all the same but it seems you’ve got it all worked out with the firm you work with so i surely wouldn’t mind a recommendation.
this is quite huge! what have you invested in ? much more info needed please ...I think this is something I should do, but I've been stalling for a long time now. I don't really know which firm to work with; I feel they are all the same but it seems you’ve got it all worked out with the firm you work with so i surely wouldn’t mind a recommendation.
Lower demand, more price cuts, and skyrocketing supply. Imma sit this out for a bit.
No way a starter homes should be over 250K
I am seeing prices drop $30k, $50 and even $100k 😂
Very exciting. Where are you seeing that?
Same. I’m seeing it in Palm Beach County Florida.
@@EthanFlynnI’m seeing a lot of price slashes in the Dallas, TX area. Prices are still 30% overpriced though. I’m not budging until sellers do.
Problem is, prices went up $200-300K or MORE on most homes. All you have to do is look at most housing prices on Zillow.
A 2019 home that was $450K now is listed $750-800K. It’s LUDICROUS!
@mtxeer8838
I’ve noticed some of that as well. It’s like sellers think just because they want that much money they’ll get it. Who can afford that and why would they? What supports that kind of increase? The listings I’ve looked at don’t. I don’t get it.
I dont know why you think Nashville will be saved. Most locals can't afford to live here or the surrounding counties because prices increased much faster than prevailing wages. Sumner County sent out property tax bills with revaluations increasing property tax by 60%. New home builders have dropped their prices over 100k in our area. Homes here are totally overvalued, a d those are the cities that will get hit the worse when this house of cards fall.
I agree. Thats why lower priced houses are high risk IMO.
I’m not sure where you get that Nashville will be “saved”. Not sure what that means?
Lots of good things happening will fare better than average. Is that what you mean?
How can you possibly say most people can’t live in Nashville when it’s full of people who are obviously living there?
@@patty109109It’s just another symptom of too much romanticism. We now have so much identity and tribalism that “people” only includes your own “tribe”. The rest of us, to him, do not exist. We are not really people, much like ethnic minorities have been perceived throughout history.
I worked for the state after grad school and ended up living out of my truck in the parking grade by the baseball park to save money and buy a house in Louisville because I thought it was overpriced. That's was 5 years ago lol
My first comment got eaten it seems. I think you’re saying the faster and higher prices climb, the harder they fall?
The problem I have reading your comment is the part about locals not being able to afford homes. Who do you mean by locals? Renters who are natives and don’t make much money?
I went to two open houses this weekend. I went to both right before the open houses were over and literally at both places only two people, including myself, had walked through. It’s not stagnant it’s totally paralyzed and people like me who don’t want to pay 4000 a month for just mortgage and interest are on strike until sane prices return. The most recent stat I think is in 2020 one needed to make 58K for the median home price in America now you have to make 106k. In the next year, there’s going to be massive job losses, and we already know that it’s damn near impossible to lose a six-figure job and get another one in this economy, and with the fact that most people have not much saved, people will lose their houses not gonna be any different than 2008 it’s just gonna take a little bit longer.
Oh wow. What areas were the open house? That sounds bad.
Massive job losses... bingo ! Finally someone who gets it.
We live in Williamson Co. TN and haven't had a house note for 25 years and no desire nor need to sell. We get offers to buy our home all the time. Be debt free and live the good life.
BTW, our property taxes are frozen and will not go up.
Congratulations. Very nice!
I think this is a common situation in WC. It’s why I’m much more concerned about the people who put 3.5% down or got a 2-1 buydown thinking they could refinance.
Can you say more about how your property taxes are frozen?
@EthanFilynn it's not necessarily freezing taxes. Here in Texas you can do that when you reach 65. It's called a tax deferment. We also have a the homestead exemption. I don't know why nobody talks about that.
@@tranger4579 homestead exemption only reduces property taxes, it doesn't eliminate them. The property taxes being frozen is a thing in certain States, this does not exist in most of the US however. On another note: property taxes in Texas are insanely high, so unless you are 65 or older it's not a good deal to be a home owner there.
@@Ziegfried82 I live in South Texas 45 miles outside of Corpus Christi TX. My property taxes this year were 1080.00 dollars. On 1700 sq feet house on 4 lots. I'll take that over what people pay in rent😂
@@Ziegfried82 Here in Oklahoma it does, Once we claimed the double homestead exemption our property taxes almost halved, once we hit 65 and bring in 25k and less property tax freezes, 100% disabled vets are property tax exempt, current military are...Yes you guessed it.. Property tax exempt.
Nashville is way overdue for a reality check... price drops can't come soon enough... the locals require lower prices otherwise they'll have to relocate out of area...
I agree. It’s been very painful. The lower priced houses look like they are going to correct. What price point/interest rate do people start buying again?
Let them relocate. I grew up here yet I understand that I'm not entitled to a house in the neighborhood where I grew up. Prices will go down when people stop buying what's out there. I think it will happen but it will be in the 5% range. That means a 700k house goes for 665k. That's about a quarter point in interest rate.
@@EthanFlynn I think you need to adjust your 300-700k range to 400-850k in this area. In Wilco, you probably drop it under a million. It's wild. I still think anything in the Nations that isn't right off 51st could drop 10% or more. Just a hunch.
Buy something you can afford to pay it off
Hello. . . There is nothing affordable for most people. Redfin is full of shit.
Than they hit you with property tax “re assessments” every year and now your back to paying a mortgage lol.
Exactly. We bought our house for $64,900 at 2.875% in rural USA, moved in zero money down using a USDA loan, seller paid closing costs, When we claimed the double homestead exemption, our property taxes almost halved. Once we turn 65 property tax freezes, disabled vets are 100% exempt from property taxes, current military are property tax exempt, We overpay the principal each and every month since the first payment was due, knocked years off the life of the mortgage so far. Each COLA we add another $10 to overpayment.
BUYER DONT GIVE IN FOR HIGH PRICE HOMES DONT BUY LET SELLER KEEP THERE JUNK HOMES OVER PRICE HOMES
Stop with wanting everything in your first home and get a starter he me like normal people do.
Learn how to write a sentence.
Amen. Buyers ALWAYS determine the price. Buyers need to wait for a 30% correction. STOP BUYING FOLKS!
Exactly I’ve gotten into so many fights in the past two months by walking away from over priced homes
There's only so many FOMO buyers and the market it ate them all up already. Anyone wanting to buy now is going to be far more cautious. Sellers have to sell, buyers don't have to buy.
I don't think buyers can afford it
@@EthanFlynn That's true too. Someone else mentioned it where housing isn't based on supply and demand. It's actually based upon credit availability and if CMBS dries up credit liquidity within the banking sector, the residential market is going to dry up too due to the lack of available loans.
Yep. The dummies already bought their casket. I mean house
@@rathelmmc3194 yes this is a basic math equation. Pumped! Now dump to affordability.
If prices go up 50% and then come down 10% from that, is this a crash? Just like a stock chart, it's going from the bottom left to the top right of your screen. We had 10-years worth of price increases in 2yrs, we've been sideways for the last 2yrs and we'll be sideways for the another 5-6yrs. But we won't be down(nationally) unless we have a Black swan event as a catalyst. Of course some local markets will soften due to local dynamics.
Very possible. I will say dropping 10% in a few months is a crash IMO but surprised that it stopped. Most people who bought in May 2022 can’t sell their house without taking a loss in middle tn.
The only reason it hasn't crash....yet, is that we're waiting for the recession to hit. It's gonna be a nasty one. Get the popcorn 🍿
I’m seeing more and more red across the nation in some states but key is that we are seeing a crashing market just as it began in Florida in 2006.
Depends on where you live. If your post boom : think Houston, Denver, Phoenix etc the prices simply have to decline because the interest rates means nobody can sell at 800k. Other areas like the Carolina’s they are still growing and millions are moving in keeping houses unaffordable.
Not only more price cuts, but more “stealthy” price reductions through credits to buyers for closing costs or temporary interest rate buydowns.
💯. And no good data to track that.
I'd rather have a real price cut for lower property taxes.
🎉🎉🎉 It’s all starting to happen. But I’m really thinking that Nashville and the surrounding areas will be much stronger than the majority of the U. S.
Thank you Ethan, Carlos
Thanks Carlos. Will be stronger I agree. But it’s getting soft. Very exciting Fall coming.
Only people who live in Nashville say things like that. The entire world economy is about to completely collapse.
@@sound4mation and what happens to home prices? Do they go up or down? If the currency collapses what happens to home values?
@EthanFlynn what do you think?
18,000 plus new units being built right now all coming to market in the next three years. That will crush the market. Markets like Nashville, Las Vegas and other places where the prices doubled or tripled will be seeing huge losses.
Spot on analysis. Compliment from a real estate developer and financial professional.
Thank you for the feedback! Much appreciated!
I have seen houses here in San Antonio Texas that were only valued at 75,000 5 years ago that are listed at 200,000. now in the deep West and Southside ,definitely starter homes..
Wow. $75K 5 years ago. Isn’t San Antonio dropping now?
Values went down a little in March but have rebounded…
I wish Redfin would sell the houses they bought and got stuck with and started renting under a subsidiary that they own. They are the ones who inflated the market.
There are subdivisions out FM471 (Culebra) by 211 that have 4-6 adults renting a house 🏡 together and renting..Strange to see out in the country but Farmers have sold their properties ..😢
BUYER DONT BE HOUSE POOR LIVE A LITTLE
A milling dollars for a box are over. People found new places to lay be outside USA.
What happened to buy a house and pay it off? Who decided it's a market? It's not stocks.
Because it’s your property and you can do whatever you want
It's because private equity is allowed into the family housing market. I own my house and I want families in houses not wall street
it's better for all of society!
I find it incredulous that counties tax property on market value and not based on land square footage. Home insurance is unbelievably unbalanced when they can charge anything and then drop you. Way too many local permit and restrictions on the property. HOAs should have major restrictions. Ban corporations from owning residential units. Get rid of realtors and use a highest-bidder auctioning system on the steps of the property (after property has passed rigorous inspections and is fully documented).
A lot could be done to promote buying/selling, but the home ownership is fraught with problems. Buying a house with a down oayment and 30% DTI is do-able, but not once all other add-on costs and permit restrictions are added into the monthly payment.
The government should stop private equity buying single family homes. They go live away from the chaos they create!
When you have a buyer and a seller that creates a market
The Pressure of Increased Taxes ,Mortgage Rates ,Food Inflation...You Name It..the Middle and Bottom end of Market is Being Pressed Down
Very true.
Here in Jersey, in the good towns within a relatively close commute to NYC, home prices are still increasing and homes are still selling quickly and over list. Median home sale prices are way up from a year ago at this time.
Interesting. Is this migration out of nyc or people coming back from Florida?
@@EthanFlynn migration out of nyc, out of Hoboken or Jersey City, and out of most national metro areas, families looking for highly rated schools and then investors as well.
The difference in NJ is that home prices went up 10-15% maybe 20% tops in the better "hot" towns. In places like Nashville, people bought a condo for $280K in 2019, sold in June 2022 for $400 K (true top most likely) then these people have to sell now and they list for $700K, then $650K, then $600K and will continue to chase market down. The real price these homes in Nashville should trade at is likely a discount to the 2022 Top. Sure you may catch some sucker byt it becomes less likely when the builder can always undercut you. The same thing happened in Las Vegas. People bought in 2022 from builders like Toll and Lennar for $800K-900K (same homes that were $400K-500K in 2019) now those builders are "closing out" same leftover properties for $650K-700K. The people who bought for $900K still are holding on to their homes and will eventually lose a third of their money. Some who owe more than their house is worth may just give it back to the bank. Thats what makes a crash accelerate.
People have car payments that should be a mortgage payment. Guess more and more will either live in the car or get it repossessed.
I know! Car payments over $1K. Unbelievable.
Finally, keep dropping!!!! Give me 2010 values, for the house I want in CA. The RE market was stupid nuts for the past 6 years.
i was under contract 3 times, because the first 2 wanted too many concessions, it fell thru. It was still a sellers market though.
Thanks for sharing!
Bowling Green KY is a nice town about an hour north of Nashville.
It is nice. Is the housing market less expensive there?
@@EthanFlynn it’s way less expensive than Nashville but home prices seem too expensive everywhere. I feel like an 08 type crash is coming.
@@afr4847 it’s possible however, in 08 the gov refused to bail out homeowners in fear of inflation. Now we have the opposite problem where the gov fears 08 more than inflation. Very possible that this goes differently.
It's going to happen. This time they are going to do bail-ins: take the money in your account to save the banks.
Luxury is always in a good spot in any industry always. Because… they have the money… or if they don’t… an international person will
I liked how Glenn described it. Higher beta. Luxury single family in Nashville will be great in the long run. Esp where new builds are limited. May get extra soft this Fall but I like nice houses where inbound migration is high and businesses are moving in.
@@EthanFlynn agreed anything with higher pricing and less potential buyers will have less liquidity but end of the day I’d never be concerned about luxury on the whole. If the wealthy class dries up society ends so… lol
The problem is every developer that builds a cheap house and just puts in "modern" flooring and cabinets, thinks it makes it luxury.
I'm talking about 500-900 sq ft homes with false marble flooring for $550k and up
I’m the mid zone prices buyers don’t care. They really don’t understand price. The sensitivity is around the payment real estate agents need to start incorporating the payment and not so much the price. I see buyers getting emotionally attached to a price or counter offer and they don’t even know the property taxes. Have not even had a HOI quote yet and negotiating a 20k counter offer. Best bet offer Ask price with 2.5% credit to discount rate and get a payment as though you bought home for 50k less. This represents about 75% of my transactions. Creating affordable payments via seller credits. Seller nets more than a full PR and buyer gets lower payment
Many buyers don’t calculate payment. They get a number in their head and that’s it.
Instead of buying a home I would rather invest in the stock market in great dividend paying stocks and As years go by . Although I pay more into rent now I will be better off in the 5 years if I keep investing money in the market
So true! Many places where it’s hard to justify the mortgage payment vs rent.
Smart. Real estate really isn't very strong if you aren't a landlord. It's actually one of the weaker investments unless you get lucky (like some folks in CA and FL did). I put real estate in the same position as gold since if you aren't renting it out it's not generating revenue.
Good coverage bro! 🔥
Thanks Jared!
stupid people pay stupid prices. same with cars. boats. jewelry
Go long term, do NOT sell your house, rent it. You'll lose 9 to 11% to realtors and doc fees.
So expensive to sell. No doubt. But what about areas losing population? Still hold on?
I’ve watched a seller try to do what you’re talking about and the rent price they’re asking just keeps dropping and dropping because there are no renters who can afford at the price he needs in order to cover his mortgage he got into in 2018. He’s also paying a lot more for insurance and taxes than he probably had when he bought the house. Sellers are going to get stuck with the strategy your prescribing.
@@jfausset mind to share the city/location?
@@EthanFlynn Las Vegas. Place is BOOMING. The "failed state" to the west of us is keeping home prices way up and will continue to do so for some time.
@@jfausset If the owner is that strapped for cash, yeah sell. But for 70% of mortgage holders, their rate is 4% or less. They will be in far worse shape (esp long term) selling. We're in an inflationary epoch and assets are a hedge against inflation.
Do they need to delist, or do they want to keep their selling prices at COVID levels? The market is in desperate need of a correction. Historically, interest rates are pretty average right now. We had so many economic shocks through the 00s, people got used to cheap, easy money. I know so many people that own multiple properties, Airbnbs, etc. because loans were so cheap. Drove down supply. And, you see all this crap on the internet about not investing in the stock market because of this or that. So, people drove their money into real estate.
Help me think through this, will the sale of more luxury homes impact the median price?
Pushes up median big time. Mix is a big part of new all time highs.
@@EthanFlynn is there anyway you can break that down in a video? I feel like there are a bunch of housing bulls clinging to rising median rents.
I live in Franklin and the market here although high is very slow moving, and not really worth the higher prices for what you get. I want to know where they're finding these people that can afford these 5-8k a month mortgages even with 20% down, the California traffic has slowed down a lot here. I think some of them don't really have to sell just seeing if they can find someone to pay their F U price, given the shape these houses are in and are less nice than my apt I rent here. Also rental market here is certainly dropping, I just put in a transfer to a different unit for $400 a month less than I'm paying now and its less than when I originally moved in and they still have a ton of units available. The shine of this area I think is dulling since so many can't afford it compared to when they first got here. I think Murfreesboro is the only market still strong since its actually building normal priced houses under the 700k mark like you said.
Wow. You moved for $400 less a month? Can I ask which apt you left? Did you downsize or are rents collapsing there? I thought Franklin apartments were doing better.
@@EthanFlynn Lockwood glen is the one, I didn’t downsize just moved to the upper unit and lost the 2nd garage. They had a bunch of units all the sudden come open in a month period. It’s gone back up now since more have transferred or moved in limiting what’s available. My rent in 2022 was 2450 to 2650 now it will be 2250. I just think people are tired of high rent and moved elsewhere or bought a house elsewhere.
People have been so conditioned to believe that house prices always go up. I think alot of people will be surprised in the next 3-5 years as prices will drop as inventory continues to rise
Very possible. I say this all of the time. You have to be ok if prices drop or don’t buy. They could go up or down. But don’t buy if you can’t handle a drop.
Bay area is an exception, people are paying way over asking price, a recent house here listed at 1.95m but sold at 2.4m. Northern CA is crazy!
Wow. Thanks for sharing. Was the property under priced? That sounds wild.
Bay area has magic wand, we won't construct house, we will obstruct by all means. Welcome to home of NIMBYS, big talk little shit.
similar to Seattle Area, especially east Seattle
@@EthanFlynn People went into an intense bidding war. This has never stopped despite high interest rates.
Also, no buyer contingencies is used because people almost always buy as is to be competitive.
Yes it is that crazy!
The price never went back. Every month new videos with new house crash since covid time and what. Another year nothing on market. Living in Chicago. Barn shack with normal school cost $450k and you have to do everything inside. Everything! We’re moving to Canada price. They can’t afford barn for million but that their house market price. Plus a lot of apartments and single houses under Zillow and Co…. They buy it but not sell it. Just keep it for a while so working class overpaid for this slavery bucket property
And it will not get better. Assets (including homes) are hedges against money printing (ah "inflation").
This is so true. It looks like prices will drop but this is not 2008 IMO. Too much money printing too much inflation. Time will tell 🤷♂️
How do people make high salaries in Nashville to afford these homes? Country music? Are home buyers imports from Silicon Valley? I don’t get it.
Lots of migration. Totally unaffordable to locals.
Only areas going up is locations where people don’t want to commute any more
Do you have an area in mind? In Nashville urban areas seem to be struggling the most. Condos and lower priced housing from what I can tell.
This is why I sold my home in 2022 and put 30% of that in REDFIN stock.
Things will get dicey and the house always wins.
I'm here for my cut!
lol Redfin stock.
@@mike-uw6wt you laugh, but I already doubled my $100k investment, and if you look at where the stock originally fell from, there's a good chance it'll double again.
@@defrank1870that will turn into a blufin tuna, yummy!
People watched their home value shoot up during covid, they put up some finishing fixups and remodels. Now that it's summer they're all listing at the same time, right as buyers all died off.
Bad timing.
Yes. Please keep renting, keep renting, u dont need home ownership. The crash is around the corner, don't ever buy 😅, u are doing the right by sitting it out. 😅
America needs to wake up and find something else as an investment vehicle.
When your home value goes up so does everything else associated to own/running it.
Property taxes, home owners insurance (the cost of rebuilding in the even of a catastrophic event). Also they need to go back to building smaller homes.
However property taxes don’t automatically go up in Tn just because values go up. Fwiw.
@@EthanFlynn yes it varies state to state. In Colorado they do an assessment every 2 years.
Colorado got clobbered because of the influx of people bidding up homes with borrows money. All the locals have to move because they couldn’t afford to live here.
Homes in Franklin are still bringing high prices, same in Brentwood . In certain neighborhoods with little inventory, they are bringing as much as May 2022 as far as I can see.
Franklin is very strong. That was my point about luxury, it feels much more stable even though historically it can be more volatile. However, Westhaven is getting soft and I’m starting to see other hot neighborhoods begin to loosen up like Bridgemore Village.
@@EthanFlynn I agree , Bridgemore has some nice homes, but it's not Franklin
Adding to the thread, seeing some new homes in Franklin and Brentwood go down over 100k which is a good sign. I’m literally going to an open house today. More education and really seeing what’s going on on the ground
No one should buy a property until prices return to 2019 levels.
Why 2019?
Why Not 1962 prices?
@@Omar_Zazzlewhy not 1800's😂
US Government spending @ 2 trillion per year, FED continues to print money and devalue currency. 2019 prices are never coming back, and the money printing spree pretty much guarantees that
Great info as always, sir!
Thanks!
Demand is only dropping because interest rates make it unaffordable. Doesn’t mean demand is truly dropping, when interest drop demand will unpause and values will once again skyrocket.
When interest rates drop that will the start of an economic recession and the housing market will decline because people won’t be able to afford homes. Look at the last couple times interest rates were low, raised, and then dropped. It’s cyclical
The demand is false. We have more homes on the market than their is demand. I see many empty +$250k houses and apartment complexes. They are giving away 2 months rent.
I would agree. I actually think the demand curve in Nashville is shifting with migration but the pool of buyers that can afford 7% rates is shrinking. Quantity demanded is dropping.
It’s just a bubble about to go pop!
What if the bubble is our currency!?
Sellers still think it’s 2020 and 2021 and they need to swallow their pride and take the lower offers
BUYER LET THE GREEDY SELLER KEEP THERE OVER PRICE HOMES PRICES SHOULD GO BACK TO 2019 PRICES INTEREST WAS 5% IN 2019
My home isn't overpriced. Actually20% less than sales 6 months ago
😂. I’m not following but I love the ALL CAPS
How does this man know why millions of strangers are selling their houses?
Most people cannot afford these crazy bubble prices.
I agree. Esp at 7% rates
Probably because corporate real estate is finalizing their flips and renovations.
What do you suppose will happen as people lose jobs...
Property taxes are big issue everywhere. Drives a lot of people into homelessness and then meanwhile they want more taxes to solve homelessness. cyclic.
If you move. You’ll be moving into the same thing. Stop paying taxes.
Stop paying taxes 😂🤣😂
I have been telling people that the market has to adjust at some point-- from the downward pressure of the home price / wages ratio. And that point is when sellers HAVE TO sell.
We are there I believe.
The black rock investment bought everything, that why home price in the American so high .
Can you point to articles or resources showing where they bought? Where are you located?
Home sale prices are up +5.6%...
This is May data. Old news. Along with June already in the books. We are looking at July and August. It’s softer than avg. Buyers market is creeping up quicker and in a lot more places than last year.
Seller better hope they can get out as soon as they can because it will only get worse for a long time
DON'T SELL, BUY ANOTHER AND RENT OUT THE 1ST ONE.
I love this
Lies, market is still hot. People want good houses, they will pay!
Did you watch the video?
When they don't have the money, and can't afford the interest rates, no they will not be able to qualify for the loan. Only the top 10% wealthiest Americans can keep rolling no matter what.
Assets vs. Liabilities
Can you elaborate?
Anyone telling someone to do an assumable mortgage should face jail time.
That’s quite the charge. Can you elaborate?
Do you mean adjustable mortgage?
If not, what do you have against assumable?
You should watch my assumable video. My buyer crushed it. We Did it! 2.875%. What it took to assume a mortgage.
ua-cam.com/video/uy_CC-Lbcfw/v-deo.html
@@EthanFlynn I think he mistook that as adjustable. An assumable below 4% should be everyone’s goal.
I have that same reaction to adjustable so I understand. 😂
Just sounds like greedy sellers.
We enter into a recession by end of year. I base this off of corporate earnings and leading economic data. The stock market is at all time highs because of a handful of stocks blasting higher from euphoria and AI mania.
There is a fear of hyperinflation. The government can't find buyers for its long term debt so the treasury has been selling more short term debt at higher rates. Hyperinflation crashes stocks up. Normally I would just recommend people sell stocks over the summer and buy at the end of October and the trading day before election.
Real estate tends to go sideways in price for a long time. At least in Hawaii -prices shoot up then go sideways for years then shoots up. Hawaii is still sideways for 3 years. Recession will keep us sideways in my area for 1-3 more years.
Base this ON. You cannot base something off of something else.
The ceo don’t know. I want to talk to the ground floor of red fin
From my experience in Nashville, he is describing exactly what I’m seeing. But curious why you think he’s wrong. What are you seeing?
It’s so a real estate time almost!
Very exciting!!
People are betting interest rates are going to fall, so they're holding off on buying. I also wouldn't compare COVID boomtowns like Nashville with the broader housing market.
Maybe some are speculating on interest rates however, I think the true driver is affordability. Do you think the broader housing market will fare better or worse than Nashville?
"... have to move". Thats been true forever. Give us a number, not your feelings. 3% less in contract? Wow. 😂
Many markets corrected after 2022. Price cuts?? Show closing prices GS predicts a relatively flat market for a couple years. My money is on their ananysis.
Price cuts are directly correlated with additional concessions. Altos does a good job of explaining this. We are heading for a much softer Fall than Avg. as for Goldman’s forecast they very well could be right. If you avg out all of the money printing and other bail outs hard not to think that housing will be held up too but their forecast is also just that, a forecast.
I would put my money on strong inbound migration which is Nashville. Embrace the softer than average Fall and assume a mortgage.
I’m trying not to forecast outside of direct variables like contract price and price cuts and instead focus on what’s happening currently. I find that to be an enjoyable challenge and much more attainable.
Don't buy a house.
I don't have to sell because I own mine lol.
Exactly. People are delisting because they don’t have to sell.
It’s the sellers that are listing into this that are worrisome. Prices are dropping and people are listing their homes, because they have to. Will make for an interesting Fall.
@@EthanFlynn Yeah, I was reading that 80% are living paycheck to paycheck, credit card debt is climbing which means they are starting to live off their card, and repos on vehicles is starting to climb.
Going to be amazing to see what happens in the next 12-18 months.
Cool
Wait till your insurance and your HOA fees triple.
@@Omar_Zazzle Fair points, no HOA because only morons move into them and insurance will be off-set by the fact I make plenty of money and I spend very little of it. I wager I invest/save 60% of my yearly salary.
No one's to buy or rent. Everyone wants to camp out on the streets and shower in gyms.
This will def make prices drop 😂🤣
LOWER THE PRICE........LOWER THE PRICE.........OR SUFFER WHEN YOU GO INTO FORECLOSURE. dumb losers have already spent their lottery ticket. so lowering by $50,000 is emotionally devastating even though it would sell today. I cant give it away.
Price is always a factor no doubt. It will sell instantly at the right price.
Glenn looks stressed out these days.
I bought my 1632 sq ft 3 bedroom 2 bath home 3 years ago for $64,900 @2.875% 30 year fixed. We overpay the principal each and every month since the first payment was due, knocked years off the life of the mortgage so far, we have a savings account we add to each and every month, paid off 1 credit card and paying down a second, we have the double homestead exemption, once we claimed it it knocked our property taxes almost in half, once we turn 65 in 6 years property tax freezes, 100% disabled vets are tax exempt, current military are tax exempt. AND did/ doing this on an SSDI income. Fixed income are indeed buyable incomes. I'm not going anywhere.
Congratulations! Sounds like you have a plan that is working.
@@EthanFlynn Thx! And sure do! Each Social Security COLA we add another $10 to the $125 a month principal
You are just mocking me. 🤣😂🤣
Good job!
Check back in 5 months to see if he is singing the same song
Not following. What do you mean?
Supply is still way low compared to pre pandemic. Not a buyers market. I want to come back to this in six months.
Please come back in 2 months.
I don’t know what will happen in 6 months.
Keep in mind prepandemic supply without prepandemic demand is a major problem.
Why Redfin's CEO is Anderson Cooper!? 😂😂😂
I don’t know what this means.
Or , buy your home with yer retirement savings and social security money with a 30 year fixed mortgage . Easy , peazee .
At 7% with a payment 30-50% higher than rent. Easy peazy. 😂.
I think buyers would do it if they could. I really believe they are tapped out.
Lol 😂! Easy Peazee!!
@@scottysteadman5063 we came from the worst state that has some of the country highest priced homes in 2022 and as we started planning for this process 20 years ago and trying to save ; we managed to save 20,000.00 and immediately bought our first house in a state that is more affordable .Been here 1 and half years and we love it and very affordable .
@@EthanFlynn not so fast to believe nobody can do it .Hold up .I got out of prison and nobody would hire me because I am a ex con .And these days ,everybody checks criminal history .At least in California. Anyway ,I was in my fifties and no job and only my wife able to work .We lived unlike most .Other folks gotta have the latest i-phones , internet , net flix ,and it's not that they can't save .It's that they can't do without the latest gadgets and spend till they have nothing to save . My wife's job was as a janitor .And with just her working as a janitor cleaning toilets we lived in terrible crime filled city of California. And in 20 years of frugal living , we saved ten grand , twice , and each time we had to spend it all on necessary things like dentist or auto .So we started all over to save both times .At end of 20 years of really doing without , we then left California and bought a house unseen except for phone photos on the other side of country. So if we did this at 5.75 percent interest on 30 year fixed then anybody can do it .I believe most just don't wanna put in the work of frugal living and eating a lot of rice and beans . Our mortgage is less then thousand a month for a 2,780 square foot two story ,5 bedroom,2 full bathroom, automatic garage door opener ,metal roof that is fairly new ( on average they last 70-100 years) new central air and heat . Paw-lees . Plus there is no homeless people, or serious crime , or drugs here like in California . Everyone is friendly weather they know you or not .
Total collapse
I don't have to sell, I want to sell. Rich people won't necessarily always be rich.I know of 2 that don't apply to that statement.
Can you say more? What do you mean?
This guy has been talking about housing decline ages ago. Lol yet another crash 🤡
Something tells me you’re not the most intelligent person 😂
Clearly you don’t watch my channel. The Nashville market dropped 10% from peak and many neighborhoods have yet to recover. Now we are going into a very soft Fall. 🍿🍿
He didn’t even answer you, one of these year his is going to be right, just like a fortune 🥠
Was there a question?
@@EthanFlynn I'm thinking inflation will override any sort of "soft fall". Research "end of petrodollar" which just took place last week. I reckon serious inflation is in the cards.
It is a correction, it won't be a crash.
I agree. I think a lot of people will be surprised at how intervention will happen vs 2008 if foreclosures pick up.
The majority of the market does not “ have to sell “.
Exactly. But it seems the people listing into this headwind do. I guess we will see. Do you think the market drops?
All it takes is another big crash and the number that will have to sell will skyrocket. I've heard arguments that the housing market crashing causes a market crash and vice versa. Doesn't really matter how it happens, it's cyclical and we're due for another one.
sounds like someone is rage making content to cope with their own bad decision😂😂🤣
Did you watch the video? Lol.
@@EthanFlynn unfortunately I did
This new video view on YT sucks
I'm sorry
@@EthanFlynn not your video, the way they show the video screen
Ethan has been waiting for the crash for a few years now. Looking to buy your wife a home in Westhaven ???
Since April 2022, the peak. And I will be assuming debt when I buy. I would love to buy in Westhaven however it’s a bit far from the interstate.
No your video is completely ignorant of s failed economy.
I’m not following. Can you explain?
Musical chair except backwards
I think there is lots of demand, but buyers are exhausted and have reached their breaking points. The inflection point is starting to appear, in certain markets. Others, still very much a seller’s market.
I agree. Buyers just can’t make it work with these rates. What areas do you think stay strong?
@@EthanFlynn I live in the Seattle area. We have way too many rich people here and not enough housing for them all. 2008 wasn’t really that much of a problem here either. SoCal and Silicon Valley will remain resilient.
@EthanFlynn Utah. Homes are still coming and going fast here with lots of new builds going down. This is both in Salt Lake County and neighboring counties within a commutable distance to employment. Employment is high here and this place continues to explode in growth by the year