Tony goes into areas I'd not seen him discuss before. And there is so much detail in this one. I had to keep pausing the video to assimilate it all. Outstanding.
Mind blowing. Tony you have fired up my Entrepreneurial mind. To tie this in with helping all of us survive together is very charitable and empathetic. We can do all of these things and we all need to become our own Engineer’s and Blacksmith’s. You are definitely worth supporting. Thank the Good Lord for you and your team 🙏
There is a bit of a paradoxical disconnect between the idea that very few people will own their own vehicle in the future due to self-driving TaaS, and “you can power your house from your EV”. According to the TaaS theory most EVs will spend most of their time driving around, disconnected from the grid, rather than sitting around parked and spending significant time connected to the grid acting as energy storage.
I really feel like we are the chosen ones. It’s crazy to me how we have access to this type of information while everyone is just living life with not a single idea about what is going to happen in this short amount of time.
the mantel of leadership? I want the cup to pass this is the third kick up along the side of my head in 3 days. WE get no choice, please don't use fear to motivate like this Sept 2021. Set an example HURRY
Mind-blowing brilliance. Technology disruption is here and cannot be avoided. This is similar to the impact of the Bitcoin protocol on the global monetary system. Thank you, Mr Seba
Wow. Thanks! I can't remember the last time I was spellbound by every minute of an hour-long YT video. I knew several of the pieces of this (especially the growth and revolution parts), but never (until this video) have I seen it so well, or so powerfully, integrated into a single cohesive picture spanning an entire economy. For me, the greatest revelations were: 1) How quickly old ways die off. 2) How the new ways create "larger pies" that dwarf the best the old ways had ever yielded. This yields a great takeaway: When looking at the growth of a potentially disruptive technology, ALSO look at how the industry it replaces is faring. When both are simultaneously going in opposite directions AND the total market is growing, then it's time to take the change very, very seriously. The thing is, these are purely statistical estimates based on actual historical data. Many of the trends and predictions included error bars as shaded areas above and below the central trend line. In many cases, even the MOST PESSIMISTIC estimate, at the bottom of the lowest error margin, was more than enough to still trigger large scale change, with the only change being a small adjustment to when the tipping point would occur. I think that now defines "inevitability" for me.
Wow. This video and information is gold. The whole world should be informed about these changes. Unfortunately, we are only interested about day to day stuff, like non-sense politics, celebrity break ups, etc. People generally resist change, just like many resisted the internet.
Actually That is a misnomer. The internet has experienced the same exponential S curve of adoption as every other technology. Within 3 years the entire world will be connected.
Hi Tony, love your reasoning, really really super great! I believe adding one or two technologies will further lower the total operating cost: 1. Energy autobidder (Probably already implied) 2. Ultra high voltage direct current transmission cables. Connecting different weather regions will significantly lower level of overproduction and / or necessary battery capacity.
You cant do high voltage DC. The cables would be as thick as a human torso. We went through this whole debate at the turn of the century and AC won for a good reason.
@@bnk9477 what's interesting, & hopeful, is his thesis that the economics will get us there, regardless. my thinking is that we need strong policy pushes to accelerate that, but his calculations show 90% GHG reduction by 3025+. But if we don't effectively manage the fallout of the disruptions, the implications for political/societal instability are frightening.
@@mtiedemann11 What is frightning is that the co2 in the air, will stay ther for 30 years, if we stop all co2 emmision today. So for 30 years the temp. wil rise no matter what.
The CO2 existing Seba says can be sucked out by using the land no longer used by agriculture by replanting into trees. So he has negative levels. That's as much as reduction.
@@bnk9477 yes, we're in for a lot more "hell and high water" even if we ramp up our efforts globally asap. But we can reduce the extent of the damage by pushing hard now. What's hopeful about Tony's model is that we may move faster than expected.
I love this guy's keen observations. He can have access to the same information as other people yet he can see what no one else does. Of course he might not be 100% accurate but he's WAY ahead of most.
Every time I talk to people about Tony's prediction on disruption I am called an idiot like he was in 2014. A lot of education is going to be needed but Tony is one of very few beating this drum.
I think most people will still want to have their own cars with all these technological advances as long as they can afford it. So it may seem to be too optimistic for the 2030 numbers.
I would definitely still want my own vehicle- it brings much freedom to do and go as one pleases…especially if an last minute emergency arrives such as guests are soon arriving and a family member ate 2 slices of the birthday cake you bought yesterday, or your phone charger cable no longer works and you have 5% battery life- quick drive to the convenience store around the corner, etc you get my perceptive. And I can’t wait to own an EV automotive with 20 minutes to full charge = 500/mph - no more gas BS which is good for my wallet but hopefully the war over lab and oil fields will finish and peace can stand a chance. The ONLY feature I would want for my future EV car is that there will be the option to exclude WiFi / mobile technologies-- we’ve seen just a tip of cybercrime since COVID; data breaches, hackers selling people’s data or holding for ransom, colonial pipeline crash, spoofing, the thousands of scam texts & calls, identity theft, and they will be getting more and more creative to commit robbery without any weapon or witnesses - faceless located anywhere globally. So yes I am terrified one day I’ll be a target and the hacker takes control of my car 🚘 maybe they bought a life insurance on me x months/years ago and going to drive me into the lake or tragic accident for the payout. IDK what the motive since I’m not a criminal lol I just don’t trust technology with my life YET- especially after Facebook, Apple autofill and Google account & my saved passwords were breached and leaked online! I had alerts that 798 passwords were compromised! There is no way I can secure my 30 years of account logins quickly. I gave up after 100ish of the MOST important accounts……but honestly I don’t understand how these 3 giants security system got breached, they have proprietary technology/data so one would assume they have security system for their security system. And with the Massive DATA these corporates own , why hasn’t an arrest & prosecution for the leaks happened yet? So confused 🤔 either the group of hackers have been caught and I haven’t read it or they are dragging their feet giving em time for the next heist
This is super insightful. As an engineer I’m exhilarated and pumped to go build the future, but as a person I see a lot of people whose entire lives and ways of living are going to be rendered irrelevant and unneeded. I also see prime conditions for revolution, totalitarianism, and the wholesale destruction of culture. This is going to be a very bumpy ride, and it’s probably going to end badly for most of us.
Historically speaking the great technological convergences have been responsible for the creation, and eventual obsolescence of ever social/economic model in history. It goes all the way back to the Sumerians in Anthropology. The old system collapses and a new one emerges. They have always led us forward as a civilization. And our current system? Has never been scientifically valid in the first place. That is why our society is falling apart. Its a garbage environment that is the antithesis of what it means to be a member of the human species.
You need to see the big picture. People are only getting more humane, and quality of life is only improving, generally. Sure there are political divides, but that has always existed (even though media would like you to think differently).
Thank you Tony! I'm glad to see that the numbers on what it takes to get us to 100% solar are being presented to the right audiences! All it takes is less than 1% of GDP per year for 10 years, i.e. 500 GW per year of PV/Solar! The fossils are pumping all the money they can spare into continuing the obfuscation of reality, but soon the whole nation will understand how easy it will be to leave the fossils behind.
So ..... I love this explanation of disruptive technologies, and I am excited for how this might *maybe* save our planet from destruction. In the process, going to go Short on Ford and GM, YOLO on Tesla and solar/batteries.... and if it all comes together in the next 10 years, my kids will be set for life on a cleaner planet. NICE !!
Imagine the desalination possible with all that cheap power..... Also need DC high voltage interconnecting all the States... Or ideally around the globe.... Thank you Tony
- yes, I think lots of energy-intensive industries will start switching to models that adapt usage based on generation. probably through specific rate regimes they negotiate with producers. so not just desalination, but steel, concrete, etc. - no need for HVDC, even 765kv AC lines can have as low as 0.5% loss over 100mi. that is sufficient. whichever low-loss, high voltage system we can build fastest should be the one we build. if that's megavolt DC, so be it. - that said, I wonder if we'll hit another disruption where it stops making sense to even have large electrical grids. the cost to build and maintain those lines might end up higher than just keeping the generation and storage near the user, possibly even 100% within the same house if the roof space is big enough. cities will still be too dense to avoid having a grid, but rural areas might just totally drop off the grid.
@@somedude-lc5dy exactly....so many possibilities... I totally agree about out side inner-city areas... I think the grid will become unviable as more properties drop off.... So much change coming
That is NOT going to happen. Not in DC current. There is a reason DC lost out to AC back in the day and that is the costs. You cannot send DC long distances. The longer the distance the thicker the cable has to get and the substations would have to be one every five miles.
I like the pics of the Easter parade from 1900 and 1913. A friend pointed out that the picture was not indicative of the over all number of horses in the streets in NY or in rural US and in fact horses were still used, for moving merchandise up until trucks took over in the 20's. But for those that could afford them, cars became quite popular, going from over 4000 cars were sold in the US in 1900, but that number rose to 356,000 12 years later. Horses were not just gone and the picture although interesting in that it showed that the rich and well off could afford the luxury much like the rich could afford the upper Tesla's, not all horses were privately owned and they did not just disappear from the scene although after pavement came in for the roads, many would slip and die as it was a great deal slippery than dirt roads. Add to that the waste product of manure and urine were a health hazard as time moved on, and how the animals were ill treated and it was not long before they were more or less taken out of service.
I'd love to see Tony take a hard look at regenerative agriculture, to see where its adoption is on it's own S curve. This will negate the need for farmers to pay for inputs like fertilizer, and it will allow for drawdown of carbon into the soil. Downsides exist for Ag and chemical companies. It's technology that can vastly improve yields of crops. Again, less land needed to grow food (or fuel... I'm looking at you, Ethanol... another negative s curve coming right at you). Farming is massively impacted. How much oversupply will there be? How about the robotics revolution in agriculture? We will need fewer farmers and farmhands. All of this at once... it sounds like a huge amount of unemployment in soo many sectors. Scraping that $250/month for the American dream may be really hard for a huge part of the population, despite the apparent low price.
Ive done that. Its a little early but it appears to be also on its way to the 5% tipping point. It got a huge boost during the pandemic. Lot of people chose to check out of the rat race and the trend is continuing.
Is the Rethinking Humanity book available in audio? Tony Seba and his team are using real data as a “crystal ball” to accurately predict disruptive activity. This is incredible content.
It's more of a research report with graphs then a book so i don't think it would translate well into an audio book. It's 77 pages without notes and references. I think it might be the most important witten work i've ever come across in my life.
Fascinating and encouraging given the threat posed from Global Warming.I also think this could signal a colapse in house prices as land becomes cheaper and houses become much easier to and cheaper to build-think 3D printing and robotics.The construction Industry is also due for massive disruption.
thanks tony seba always appreciate your perspective and your data, very informative and what an amazing future, to me this presentation is worth 20-50 tom cruise movies working decent wage world wide UBI by 2030 or shits gonna hit the fan made by printing new money, not taxes. what its ok to print new money for big banks and rich people to benefit, but not for humanity?(where aforementioned people would benefit too anyway?)
I love the content Tony. Nice work! One area that I think draws faulty assumptions is in equating synthesis of proteins with Nutrition. All the nutrition from Meat and animal products in general is not fully understood. What is understood is that protein is not equivalent to nutrition. Many agricultural products are actually anti-nutrients and while this is not yet widely accepted the data is there (e.g consumption of corn leaches magnesium+ from humans). Modifying human food from the evolutionary diet is what has caused the prevalence of diseases in humans (and animals for that matter). The modern era of Grains, Sugar, seed oils and other mineral depleting foods has been at the root cause for cardiovascular and other modern human diseases that were never prevalent in ancestors. This information will become more widely accepted and understood by the masses in the future. Big Pharma and Big Agg will actually decline once the cause and effect linkage becomes widely acknowledged. Local meat farms will likely increase as a result. So I suggest that one disruption will likely be opposite of what is proposed here. As for the milk products you reference, The act of consuming milk or milk products from another mammal will likely be proven to have negative health implications. Data will likely show that what is healthy for one mammal is not the same for another; i.e. very different nutritional needs via evolution.
I somewhat agree with this. Grains, modern table sugar, and high Omega 6 veg oils have been wrecking human health for longer than many have realized, and reproducing those milk proteins may end up worsening the problem because of those proteins effects on insulin. If This does become well understood, I too think it is possible meat farms will increase in market share/value in the food market. However, I don't think dairy is necessarily in trouble, and I don't think precision fermentation is necessarily a bad thing. The dairy industry is still the chief manufacturer/distributor of something else, something that could become even more valuable than dairy proteins: milk fat. Milk fat is quite beneficial in human nutrition, and if the dairy industry pivots to selling that in large quantities instead of the proteins to a population that knows how bad dairy protein is, they may just switch to eating these high fat, low protein, low carb dairy products. Additionally, precision fermentation may be able to produce not just proteins as the end product, but also producing fats. If we use precision fermentation to produce healthy fats like those in milk fat, avocados, etc, and adjust it to not make proteins that we know negatively affect health, it could be the way to ensure healthy food is made on a scale for cheap
Still one of the most influential speakers on UA-cam. Lost count how many times I've forwarded his videos. It amazes me though how people can't imagine impending disruption despite having lived through some several already (digital cameras, smartphones, Uber etc)
And what you think about the actual situation in Europe : an anticyclone for 2 weeks so solar and wind dont produce enouth electricity soGermany and UK and Belgium (who are closing their nukes) are burning crazy amount of coal and gas (from Russia which rise the prices) and rise the energy prices all around Europe ???
incredible!!! Really mind blowing!!! You can already see the trend in our economy. BIG changes coming and unfortunately so many do NOT see it coming! They will wish for the old days but life will have the potential of being soooo much better.
Fantastic work...we just have to deal with the civil unrest this disruption will bring. The benefits of cost savings will need to be diverted to those who will lose out because of these disruptions otherwise we all may fail to benefit.
If the petroleum industry loses 80% of it's demand on a decade yep that will be a pretty big shake up for the employment market. Particularly because it is being replaced by something with a lot less labor required for production as well as all the distribution network and cargo transportation jobs. It is going to be a pretty big bandaid to rip off. The petroleum industry will survive as we still need materials and lubricants but yeah demand is going down big time if we stop burning their product.
I've continued applying Tony's ideas to technology news and noticed some surprising developments: 1. The EV/AV traffic transition is already here - in delivery drones. A few weeks ago, Walmart announced expansion from a test deployment to service in multiple US states serving 4 million customers. They expect to serve 1 million deliveries. A drop in the bucket relative to total vehicle miles, but that's still a lot of trips taken off the roads! Amazon has followed up by announcing its own testing zone, so the race to replace the last mile has truly started now. 2. The most cost-efficient use of a TaaS fleet is going to gravitate towards vehicles that fit exactly the capacities needed - so one or two people and a bag will be the most likely base unit, which makes ebike or scooter service an attractive starting point. Larger vehicles can exist for group travel or cargo, but the mindset of mass transit vs individual - of putting a crowd on a bus vs driving a mostly-empty car - is likely to shift in favor of these smaller vehicles in regions with mild weather(enclosed cabin variants are a small upgrade). And as luck would have it, those rentals already exist *today* through Bird, Spin, Lime, etc. These companies found a niche that let them rapidly iterate on their platforms, bootstrapping themselves from a dockless environment with humans employed to move around and charge the fleets, and some(like Spin) have already gotten to work on testing AV features. When it's possible to call a bike and have it arrive like a taxi, drive itself with minimal intervention(which may not even need a complete level 4 style system), and then finish your ride and have it return to a safe parking spot, the puzzle is nearly complete, and the last task necessary for TaaS to start gobbling market share is to lobby city officials into massive expansion of bike paths and charge docks. By end of 2023 I expect it will become obvious what has happened as footage of transformed test markets starts to pop up. The groundwork is already here in cities which pushed forward their bike infrastructure during the pandemic lockdowns.
Thank you Tony, I have seen and have been across the Energy and Transportation technology disruptions and this exciting news where I have personally invested in solar and batteries however the Food disruption that has been mentioned is a eye opener. You went into some detail around protein specifically and also highlighting cost curves and they way this will disrupt the Food industry economically. The one question I have with food is it Healthy? Will it provide all the nutrients we need to be healthy? I am a big believer of you are what you eat and that a well maintain diet prevents other illnesses or medication. To me being healthy is far more important than a cost curve.
Yep, my concern also..........can it produced in a way that provides the nutrients that are indeed healthy to our bodies. Or is this just the next GMO food twist that is unhealthy due to intense processing.
@@mozit6 Yes, it will be healthy. Healthier, in fact, than the hormone and intibiotic-ridden animal protein than most people consume now. You only need to make what is necessary. He uses beer as an example. Most people arfe prepared to drink beer, believing it to be brewed in a clean environment. Food standards authorities check this. Precision fermentation of proteins is no different. For further reading on why that it, I suggest Moo's Law by Jim Mellon. And perhsp pook up his investment vehicle, Agronomics. Just trying to be helpful.
Mr. Seba, I think you hurried up with saying that "outages are so last century". I understand that before this presentation you did not have to hear too much about blackouts, but already till then there were significant ones in Pakistan, Nigeria and Taiwan. Sure, you can say that the first two are developing nations and it possibly can happen, while Taiwan - not that much. Also, there were at least two blackouts in Germany this year (one in Dresden, media was silent on this one), and I believe we can expect more due to coal and gas shortages (probably due to cyberattacks and, possible, coronal mass ejections as well).
Only 107k people have watched this. Really its something everyone in the world who either has a job, runs a business, has a pension fund or other investments, or plans to buy a car or house in the next 5 years should look at. Ie. everyone needs to know this.
Very insightful. I sincerely hope that politicians / legislative take heed. One thing I am concerned about is that the politicians in America are paid (donated) by the very same companies that will fight this tooth and nail.
Very interesting and exciting stuff! One of my concerns though is that needing 4 x solar and wind capacity to cover the days with no sun and no wind, is superpower still an economic proposition? I know that from a climate point of view it's a necessity but will the ongoing decrease in the cost of solar and wind make it inevitable? I really hope so.
As solar, wind, and batteries decrease in cost, superpower will become easier and more cost effective to generate, because batteries are the financial bottleneck to storing excess solar and wind generation created by the less expensive solar and wind sources. As all 3 start to cost less, superpower may be seen as even more beneficial to invest or overinvest in, so yes, probably inevitable
33:00 Nearly firm sources still don't have the reliability of coal, nuclear, oil and gas... what is your prediction for the changing tide? So much fantastic information. I see in Alberta, Canada, the political will is to sustain and support O&G... our Premier, Daniel Smith, is always talking about protecting jobs - She slams the federal government for offering job training incentives into alternative tech and industries.
Around 40:00 you speak of the overproduction of "free energy". But if this overproduction may create abundance, it will send prices down to zero, killing any prospect of ROI! How do you make the energy system pay for itself with overproduction most of the time? Subsidies?
I think you are wrong about the cattle prediction. You make a couple of incorrect assumptions. 1. The dietary value of meat is just protein: It's much more than just proteins, the whole picture of which at the least will take 1 very dedicated year to reveal, and half a decade to reverse-engineer. 2. The alternative fermentation-based process can make matter out of thin air: It cannot, and needs substrates like sugar and atomic substrates like phosphorous, carbon, nitrogen and hydrogen. This needs to be sourced from somewhere, and it's unclear how much more efficient (space and energy) an alternative process is compared to cattle.
I agree that his predictions about agriculture are wrong. I don’t think lab grown food can ever replace the nutritional value of organic animal foods. The truth is plant monoculture has tons negative externalities and animal agriculture is the only disruptive technology that can reverse its damages
Mind-blowing as this analysis is, it's incomplete. Other exponentially-growing technologies, like robotics and AI, the blockchain, genomics and life extension will interact with these. Reading between the lines, it seems that telemedicine, genomics, AI, and robotics will eliminate most doctors (and by extension, nearly all jobs). Things like Boxabl, robotics, and the opening up of land, combined with WFH, will drop housing costs by an order of magnitude. Online education will improve so much that most colleges disappear. The energy surplus will solve climate change and water shortages via carbon sequestration and desalination. If a person's basic needs are only $250/month, and there are serious disruptions, sounds like UBI is coming, or else.
Can you include the forecast for battery raw materials this decade because plenty of sources site a supply shortage which will impact the renewable energy revolution.
Have you thought about presenting this information to The Mars Society? So many critical issues with colonizing Mars, the moon, space stations, etc are addressed by these breakthroughs in energy, food production, etc.
Didn't anyone explain to Tony yet that cars / horseless carriages were in development for almost 70 years before his first photo in NYC? The disruption didn’t "happen" in 13 years, he cherry picked a very specific section of the S curve, and isn't even using data but just 2 photos. His point still stands, but the visualization carries less weight when you actually understand automotive and manufacturing history. Also the adoption curve is related to the natural product lifecycle. E.g. people get a new cell phone every 2 years or so, people get a new car every 6 years or so and average vehicle age is 11 years old, with the late end of the curve being 20-25 years. Energy plants are designed for at least 30 year service life. These factors change the speed of adoption of any given product.
Tony's point on the transition from horses to cars (he showed a graph later in the presentation of the take rate) was that once its cheaper to own the alternative then its inevitable. EV are already at the tipping point whe looking at cost per mile life cycle and with battery costs dropping significantly over time the upfront vehicle cost will also be cheaper than gas vehicles. I will touch on the adoption curve compared to life cycle comment too. If it's cheaper to currently build solar than maintain current systems (not life cycle costs, just maintaining existing power generation) then the life cycle of a power plant timeline is irrelevant. Your point does stand when viewed from regulatory requirements standpoint, existing contracts, power needs of a region, or the sheer amount of solar and battery which need to be produced and available before the transition happens.
I mostly agree but the part of food production is chilling. Designer food under the control of a few companies is not the right way to go. Also there are some errors in the presentation: Grazing land for animals are up to 80% not suitable for growing crops and Tony also fails to mention how important animal fat is for the human body, he totally omits that fact.
Cars cannot be used for home energy backup, or distributed grid storage, because they don't have direct access to the automatic grid disconnect system that separates the home from a grid fault.
Beach traffic. How does Transportation as a Service (TaaS) deal with everyone wanting to go to the beach (or mountains for that matter) on the weekends in the summer? People are willing to pay for convenience, and they are willing to pay a lot for a nice day at the beach. Mathematical equations don't always fit with real world human wants and needs. Public transportation, bus transit, is very affordable but often only lower income use it because they are willing to make the trade off of cost versus convenience. The same thing is going to happen with TaaS in that only those who can deal with inconvenience of TaaS will make use of the much lower costs.
Well I hope you're correct Tony. I think we should maintain the conventional capacity in case something happens that makes solar infrastructure unusable.
@@beilkster if solar power production and storage are both decentralized from large distribution hubs, say homes with panels and storage and EV batteries spread across the country, solar power would be capable of being stored and traded in decentralized "grids" small enough to where people may not have much difficulty if a centralized micro grid can no longer provide people in an area with power, they'll just tap into home storage or EV storage for as long as they need to. As for prolonged volcanic ash and solar flares, ash at those levels would be a super rare event that would cause much bigger problems than just reduced solar energy, and even then we would still have wind turbines and storage to get power from; and iirc, the earth's magnetic field protects us from most solar flare activity that could affect humanity, so breaching that protection would probably also be a rare event. We would also recover from that one fairly quickly, just restart or replace the affected inverters.
@@davidx.1504 my scenarios were difficult to come up with and I'm aware they are exceedingly rare occurrences. If anything it makes a stronger case for solar. Electrical losses in transmission from generation to use in a house is about 10-15%. It's more cost effective if storage is close to the home. Decentralized storage from decentralized energy generation would compound the losses and not make sense. Also in your scenario we would still need to maintain all power line infrastructure. My concern is if cities want to detach from others in the name of storage efficiency or cost reduction... I think they would regret it.
@@beilkster honestly, I see the argument to keep larger grid infrastructure and wiring in place. I was really looking for arguments against the reliability of solar because it seems like such an easy and effective solution for much of our energy problems save for the (relatively) large land usage required with panel installation. But yeah, it'd be a bit foolish to remove the old grid infrastructure in case excess power needs to be transferred to regions with less. It could at some point be feasible for cities to be good enough solar power generators to not need the wires, but they should still keep them in case catastrophe strikes
Great video and amazing insight. It’s great that with or without government support, innovation will prevail. Just one question, what would be your recommendation for a stock investment in the precision fermentation industry? Thanks again !
When listening to Tony talking about the protein industry taking over the entire dairy industry easily and how our vast majority of food come from a handful of animals and specific plants but will easily be taken over via the yeast fermentation process and how it can more cost effectively produce the equivalent output at a fraction of the cost and land footprint....all it screams is "great reset" and how the people will be forced financially to adopt the "new food source" because traditional means will be too cost prohibitive. Its unfortunate.
Every major oil company has sold off their gas stations to local franchisees/other companies over the past 15 years, why? They know. They know the disruption is coming.
I just wonder where all that lithium needed to produce batteries to hold all that energy will come from since it's already starting to run out on the market and prices are skyrocketing.
I think producers will be able to make thousands of types of milk. We can make Blue Whale milk or Rhino milk or even human milk. Food as a software can allow people to design all sorts of new things and make totally new types of food.
@@riley_oneill Yes, perhaps in doing so we will find out that what is good for a developing baby might not be at all healthy for an adult. Utilization of some content may be inadequately absorbed and therefore deposited in places where it does not belong; i.e. calcium for example etc. The notion of whale milk and rhino milk may prove to present many new unforeseen health issues in humans that cows milk has not caused (that we currently know of).
@@KyBrancaccio I don't know if I will be drinking it but I could see someone making it and then engineering it to be human compatible. Likewise, I would not be surprised if someone figures how to make cultured Condor and elephant meat. If it is possible someone will pull it off. Really I think entirely new forms of protein will be developed. Like some sort of human chow type thing. Something that tastes like chocolate milk but is engineered to be 100% of every nutrient (and in their right proportions) that a human needs.
Human milk is only healthy if you are younger than 12 months old. Interestingly, the same is true of all other natural milks. Cows milk is only really healthy for young calves. No milk - even Martian milk - is healthy for adults, or kids over the age of 1 or at most 2 years. Don't believe either the dairy industry, or governments - milk is NOT a "healthy" food source. True... we make many tasty products from milk - but being tasty does not mean they are healthy.
I think all privately owned AVs should be covered by Right to Repair laws, so that any private car owner can fix their AV if they decide they want to keep their autonomy. I also think AV fleet managers should incentivize private AV owners to add private AVs to their fleet when private owners don't need them; maybe give the private owner some $ for every mile their car is driven as part of the AV fleet
It would be a lot easier to remove the middle man (private AV ownership) and just standardize and own your own rented vehicle. Economically and logistically it makes sense for a business to own its own fleet.
@@beilkster it also makes it easier for companies to control people's activities when traveling too. I'm not into a society where companies have an outsized ownership over commonly and widely used property, because that means they get to control what everyone does with it whether it makes sense or not, often in order to squeeze profits from people. Let's not give up property ownership for the sake of consumer and company convenience and supposed economic benefits for consumers. Many apartment renters subject to the whims of landlords can tell you why ownership is often better
@@davidx.1504 hi David. Didn't realize I commented on 2 of your comments. I also don't like giving corporations the ability to control how I live my life. I was just pointing out that it might not be up to us. The companies that own their own fleets will likely be more profitable than those who rent vehicles from others (not to mention additional inconveniences). I'm not sure the majority of society would pay extra for the same service
@@beilkster I think society would only pay extra if they failed to understand the risks of paying for convenience and giving up the right to own their own property. The elites are already planning for this, and they aren't even trying to hide it because apparently no one is paying attention to it. They call it the Great Reset, where we own nothing, left to the whims of whoever owns the things we use every day as we forget the independence borne of property ownership. People need to shout about it from the rooftops
It sounds like roll of regulators is to help dampen the amplitude of the market trauma after the rupture point - but they can't stop the overall trend once the market decides on a path forward.
I love Tony's thinking here, but given the recent example of Germany reverting to coal during the current crisis and their newly built renewable energy system failing spectacularly to meet demand I think we will have to accept that the energy disruption won't be as simple as laid out here. Storage technology needs to advance past Li-ion batteries due to materials supply issues (and there is fascinating progress being made but it's not yet proven at scale) and in places like northern Europe where solar is too unreliable and reliable wind is not well distributed there will have to be another solution, most likely some combo of nuclear plus currently developing tech such as deep geothermal.
Tony will say waste of time, expensive fuel cost with little upside in known future, and cost of building new infra struture while keeping low efficiency ice engines. Ships maybee?
It has not taken into account the latest power disruptions such as MCHA, which provides constant and continuous power without batteries. and others that are more advanced but are not well known.
![The Great Transformation [Part 4] - The #Disruption of #Food & #Agriculture](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/g6gZHbfK8Vo/mqdefault.jpg)
Tony goes into areas I'd not seen him discuss before. And there is so much detail in this one. I had to keep pausing the video to assimilate it all. Outstanding.
Yes, I had to skip back several times at @55:00 to understand everything.
I was cleaning as I was listening and had to stop what I was doing to let it sink in. Definitely knew I would have to listen again. Doing that now.
Yes, I'll be watching a few more times.
Andy!! You and I both!! LOL!!
I definitely paused several times to review.
Tony Seba is an absolute legend. His predictions have been correct time and again. When he talks, take notice.
No they haven't. Just watch his videos from the past.
I saw the similar comments for ARK ETF videos in 2020, and now, you see what happened for them in 2022.
Tony's greatest skill is the ability to tie everything together into a big picture and communicate it clearly.
Mind blowing. Tony you have fired up my Entrepreneurial mind. To tie this in with helping all of us survive together is very charitable and empathetic. We can do all of these things and we all need to become our own Engineer’s and Blacksmith’s. You are definitely worth supporting. Thank the Good Lord for you and your team 🙏
There is a bit of a paradoxical disconnect between the idea that very few people will own their own vehicle in the future due to self-driving TaaS, and “you can power your house from your EV”. According to the TaaS theory most EVs will spend most of their time driving around, disconnected from the grid, rather than sitting around parked and spending significant time connected to the grid acting as energy storage.
A clarity of Vision that is astonishing to behold!! Thank you, Tony!!
I really feel like we are the chosen ones.
It’s crazy to me how we have access to this type of information while everyone is just living life with not a single idea about what is going to happen in this short amount of time.
Another way to say... opportunity!
Yet my friends and family won’t watch this stuff it’s to long ... but will watch movies n netflix
@@d.r.656 wait for impossible burger IPO?
the mantel of leadership? I want the cup to pass this is the third kick up along the side of my head in 3 days. WE get no choice, please don't use fear to motivate like this Sept 2021. Set an example HURRY
Yep that's true
Mind-blowing brilliance. Technology disruption is here and cannot be avoided. This is similar to the impact of the Bitcoin protocol on the global monetary system. Thank you, Mr Seba
Wow. Thanks! I can't remember the last time I was spellbound by every minute of an hour-long YT video.
I knew several of the pieces of this (especially the growth and revolution parts), but never (until this video) have I seen it so well, or so powerfully, integrated into a single cohesive picture spanning an entire economy.
For me, the greatest revelations were: 1) How quickly old ways die off. 2) How the new ways create "larger pies" that dwarf the best the old ways had ever yielded.
This yields a great takeaway: When looking at the growth of a potentially disruptive technology, ALSO look at how the industry it replaces is faring. When both are simultaneously going in opposite directions AND the total market is growing, then it's time to take the change very, very seriously.
The thing is, these are purely statistical estimates based on actual historical data. Many of the trends and predictions included error bars as shaded areas above and below the central trend line. In many cases, even the MOST PESSIMISTIC estimate, at the bottom of the lowest error margin, was more than enough to still trigger large scale change, with the only change being a small adjustment to when the tipping point would occur. I think that now defines "inevitability" for me.
Wow. This video and information is gold. The whole world should be informed about these changes. Unfortunately, we are only interested about day to day stuff, like non-sense politics, celebrity break ups, etc. People generally resist change, just like many resisted the internet.
Actually That is a misnomer. The internet has experienced the same exponential S curve of adoption as every other technology. Within 3 years the entire world will be connected.
Hi Tony, love your reasoning, really really super great!
I believe adding one or two technologies will further lower the total operating cost:
1. Energy autobidder (Probably already implied)
2. Ultra high voltage direct current transmission cables. Connecting different weather regions will significantly lower level of overproduction and / or necessary battery capacity.
You cant do high voltage DC. The cables would be as thick as a human torso. We went through this whole debate at the turn of the century and AC won for a good reason.
@@davefroman4700 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-voltage_direct_current
Great presentation, thank you. Hope a lot of industry and political leaders are watching this. RethinkX should be at the world economic forum.
Tony Seba gives me hope for our future. Our children are saved!
Only if we all do EVERYTHING possible to cut down our footprint on this planet right now.
@@bnk9477 what's interesting, & hopeful, is his thesis that the economics will get us there, regardless. my thinking is that we need strong policy pushes to accelerate that, but his calculations show 90% GHG reduction by 3025+. But if we don't effectively manage the fallout of the disruptions, the implications for political/societal instability are frightening.
@@mtiedemann11 What is frightning is that the co2 in the air, will stay ther for 30 years, if we stop all co2 emmision today. So for 30 years the temp. wil rise no matter what.
The CO2 existing Seba says can be sucked out by using the land no longer used by agriculture by replanting into trees. So he has negative levels. That's as much as reduction.
@@bnk9477 yes, we're in for a lot more "hell and high water" even if we ramp up our efforts globally asap. But we can reduce the extent of the damage by pushing hard now. What's hopeful about Tony's model is that we may move faster than expected.
I love this guy's keen observations. He can have access to the same information as other people yet he can see what no one else does. Of course he might not be 100% accurate but he's WAY ahead of most.
My anatomy teacher is making me watch this.
Golden piece of information with 150 people watching (premiere), we the chosen one.
Every time I talk to people about Tony's prediction on disruption I am called an idiot like he was in 2014. A lot of education is going to be needed but Tony is one of very few beating this drum.
I think most people will still want to have their own cars with all these technological advances as long as they can afford it. So it may seem to be too optimistic for the 2030 numbers.
I don’t know about most, but there will certainly be a lot of people who will want to own their own vehicle.
I would definitely still want my own vehicle- it brings much freedom to do and go as one pleases…especially if an last minute emergency arrives such as guests are soon arriving and a family member ate 2 slices of the birthday cake you bought yesterday, or your phone charger cable no longer works and you have 5% battery life- quick drive to the convenience store around the corner, etc you get my perceptive.
And I can’t wait to own an EV automotive with 20 minutes to full charge = 500/mph - no more gas BS which is good for my wallet but hopefully the war over lab and oil fields will finish and peace can stand a chance.
The ONLY feature I would want for my future EV car is that there will be the option to exclude WiFi / mobile technologies-- we’ve seen just a tip of cybercrime since COVID; data breaches, hackers selling people’s data or holding for ransom, colonial pipeline crash, spoofing, the thousands of scam texts & calls, identity theft, and they will be getting more and more creative to commit robbery without any weapon or witnesses - faceless located anywhere globally. So yes I am terrified one day I’ll be a target and the hacker takes control of my car 🚘 maybe they bought a life insurance on me x months/years ago and going to drive me into the lake or tragic accident for the payout. IDK what the motive since I’m not a criminal lol I just don’t trust technology with my life YET- especially after Facebook, Apple autofill and Google account & my saved passwords were breached and leaked online! I had alerts that 798 passwords were compromised! There is no way I can secure my 30 years of account logins quickly. I gave up after 100ish of the MOST important accounts……but honestly I don’t understand how these 3 giants security system got breached, they have proprietary technology/data so one would assume they have security system for their security system. And with the Massive DATA these corporates own , why hasn’t an arrest & prosecution for the leaks happened yet? So confused 🤔 either the group of hackers have been caught and I haven’t read it or they are dragging their feet giving em time for the next heist
This is super insightful. As an engineer I’m exhilarated and pumped to go build the future, but as a person I see a lot of people whose entire lives and ways of living are going to be rendered irrelevant and unneeded. I also see prime conditions for revolution, totalitarianism, and the wholesale destruction of culture. This is going to be a very bumpy ride, and it’s probably going to end badly for most of us.
Historically speaking the great technological convergences have been responsible for the creation, and eventual obsolescence of ever social/economic model in history. It goes all the way back to the Sumerians in Anthropology. The old system collapses and a new one emerges. They have always led us forward as a civilization. And our current system? Has never been scientifically valid in the first place. That is why our society is falling apart. Its a garbage environment that is the antithesis of what it means to be a member of the human species.
You need to see the big picture. People are only getting more humane, and quality of life is only improving, generally. Sure there are political divides, but that has always existed (even though media would like you to think differently).
@@orhanmekic9292 Hard disagree. People are becoming soft and losing their humanity.
Mind-Blown!!!! You are the MAN Tony! Its unfortunate that very few will listen and heed your message.
Tony ALWAYS brings it! Thanks so much for the great info! See you down the line as this all plays out!
ALL HUMANS should watch this!!
Thank you Tony!
I'm glad to see that the numbers on what it takes to get us to 100% solar are being presented to the right audiences!
All it takes is less than 1% of GDP per year for 10 years, i.e. 500 GW per year of PV/Solar!
The fossils are pumping all the money they can spare into continuing the obfuscation of reality, but soon the whole nation will understand how easy it will be to leave the fossils behind.
Seba is too cautious because he doesn't factor in that cheap solar will drive down the cost of batteries an additional 80% or 90%.
So much in this - an awesome presentation.
The agriculture disruption is just nuts!!!.
Hope for a clean, affordable future without ending life on Earth by our actions.
So ..... I love this explanation of disruptive technologies, and I am excited for how this might *maybe* save our planet from destruction. In the process, going to go Short on Ford and GM, YOLO on Tesla and solar/batteries.... and if it all comes together in the next 10 years, my kids will be set for life on a cleaner planet. NICE !!
Simply the most interesting video I have seen in UA-cam in a while!
Imagine the desalination possible with all that cheap power..... Also need DC high voltage interconnecting all the States... Or ideally around the globe.... Thank you Tony
- yes, I think lots of energy-intensive industries will start switching to models that adapt usage based on generation. probably through specific rate regimes they negotiate with producers. so not just desalination, but steel, concrete, etc.
- no need for HVDC, even 765kv AC lines can have as low as 0.5% loss over 100mi. that is sufficient. whichever low-loss, high voltage system we can build fastest should be the one we build. if that's megavolt DC, so be it.
- that said, I wonder if we'll hit another disruption where it stops making sense to even have large electrical grids. the cost to build and maintain those lines might end up higher than just keeping the generation and storage near the user, possibly even 100% within the same house if the roof space is big enough. cities will still be too dense to avoid having a grid, but rural areas might just totally drop off the grid.
@@somedude-lc5dy exactly....so many possibilities... I totally agree about out side inner-city areas... I think the grid will become unviable as more properties drop off.... So much change coming
That is NOT going to happen. Not in DC current. There is a reason DC lost out to AC back in the day and that is the costs. You cannot send DC long distances. The longer the distance the thicker the cable has to get and the substations would have to be one every five miles.
When I am a little depressed, I listen to a Tony Seba lecture, and then I am well again. Thank you, Tony.
Mee too!
ME TOO!!!!!
Try Amory Lovins also.
@@Gcanno It also works pretty well !
me too!!!! and then I go and watch docs about sustainable farming and forestry...
I like the pics of the Easter parade from 1900 and 1913. A friend pointed out that the picture was not indicative of the over all number of horses in the streets in NY or in rural US and in fact horses were still used, for moving merchandise up until trucks took over in the 20's. But for those that could afford them, cars became quite popular, going from over 4000 cars were sold in the US in 1900, but that number rose to 356,000 12 years later.
Horses were not just gone and the picture although interesting in that it showed that the rich and well off could afford the luxury much like the rich could afford the upper Tesla's, not all horses were privately owned and they did not just disappear from the scene although after pavement came in for the roads, many would slip and die as it was a great deal slippery than dirt roads. Add to that the waste product of manure and urine were a health hazard as time moved on, and how the animals were ill treated and it was not long before they were more or less taken out of service.
I'd love to see Tony take a hard look at regenerative agriculture, to see where its adoption is on it's own S curve. This will negate the need for farmers to pay for inputs like fertilizer, and it will allow for drawdown of carbon into the soil.
Downsides exist for Ag and chemical companies.
It's technology that can vastly improve yields of crops. Again, less land needed to grow food (or fuel... I'm looking at you, Ethanol... another negative s curve coming right at you).
Farming is massively impacted. How much oversupply will there be?
How about the robotics revolution in agriculture? We will need fewer farmers and farmhands.
All of this at once... it sounds like a huge amount of unemployment in soo many sectors. Scraping that $250/month for the American dream may be really hard for a huge part of the population, despite the apparent low price.
Ive done that. Its a little early but it appears to be also on its way to the 5% tipping point. It got a huge boost during the pandemic. Lot of people chose to check out of the rat race and the trend is continuing.
Is the Rethinking Humanity book available in audio?
Tony Seba and his team are using real data as a “crystal ball” to accurately predict disruptive activity. This is incredible content.
Not sure if on audio - check out: www.rethinkx.com/
It's more of a research report with graphs then a book so i don't think it would translate well into an audio book. It's 77 pages without notes and references. I think it might be the most important witten work i've ever come across in my life.
@@Tony-cj6jy I will be download it, such great info, I appreciate this work so much!!
@@d.r.656 You should advance to "The Very Hungry Caterpillar" - but not sure you have sufficient reading skills.
@@d.r.656 that is one of the most bizarre books I have ever read haha
Mind blown. Super power and protein fermentation bring it all home. Thx.
Fascinating and encouraging given the threat posed from Global Warming.I also think this could signal a colapse in house prices as land becomes cheaper and houses become much easier to and cheaper to build-think 3D printing and robotics.The construction Industry is also due for massive disruption.
Excellent work... if humans would only not as complacent as they are...
thanks tony seba always appreciate your perspective and your data, very informative and what an amazing future, to me this presentation is worth 20-50 tom cruise movies
working decent wage world wide UBI by 2030 or shits gonna hit the fan
made by printing new money, not taxes. what its ok to print new money for big banks and rich people to benefit, but not for humanity?(where aforementioned people would benefit too anyway?)
I love the content Tony. Nice work! One area that I think draws faulty assumptions is in equating synthesis of proteins with Nutrition. All the nutrition from Meat and animal products in general is not fully understood. What is understood is that protein is not equivalent to nutrition. Many agricultural products are actually anti-nutrients and while this is not yet widely accepted the data is there (e.g consumption of corn leaches magnesium+ from humans). Modifying human food from the evolutionary diet is what has caused the prevalence of diseases in humans (and animals for that matter). The modern era of Grains, Sugar, seed oils and other mineral depleting foods has been at the root cause for cardiovascular and other modern human diseases that were never prevalent in ancestors. This information will become more widely accepted and understood by the masses in the future. Big Pharma and Big Agg will actually decline once the cause and effect linkage becomes widely acknowledged. Local meat farms will likely increase as a result. So I suggest that one disruption will likely be opposite of what is proposed here. As for the milk products you reference, The act of consuming milk or milk products from another mammal will likely be proven to have negative health implications. Data will likely show that what is healthy for one mammal is not the same for another; i.e. very different nutritional needs via evolution.
I somewhat agree with this.
Grains, modern table sugar, and high Omega 6 veg oils have been wrecking human health for longer than many have realized, and reproducing those milk proteins may end up worsening the problem because of those proteins effects on insulin. If This does become well understood, I too think it is possible meat farms will increase in market share/value in the food market. However, I don't think dairy is necessarily in trouble, and I don't think precision fermentation is necessarily a bad thing.
The dairy industry is still the chief manufacturer/distributor of something else, something that could become even more valuable than dairy proteins: milk fat. Milk fat is quite beneficial in human nutrition, and if the dairy industry pivots to selling that in large quantities instead of the proteins to a population that knows how bad dairy protein is, they may just switch to eating these high fat, low protein, low carb dairy products.
Additionally, precision fermentation may be able to produce not just proteins as the end product, but also producing fats. If we use precision fermentation to produce healthy fats like those in milk fat, avocados, etc, and adjust it to not make proteins that we know negatively affect health, it could be the way to ensure healthy food is made on a scale for cheap
Still one of the most influential speakers on UA-cam. Lost count how many times I've forwarded his videos.
It amazes me though how people can't imagine impending disruption despite having lived through some several already (digital cameras, smartphones, Uber etc)
Awesome! Work! Tony!.
Thank you! You're the best!.
Farmland value is going to crash? How do I buy puts on cows!
Someone should let Bill Gates know.......... He is selling out of Stocks and is now the largest private farmland owner in the US.
Wow, what absolutely fantastic and eye opening information🙏
And what you think about the actual situation in Europe : an anticyclone for 2 weeks so solar and wind dont produce enouth electricity soGermany and UK and Belgium (who are closing their nukes) are burning crazy amount of coal and gas (from Russia which rise the prices) and rise the energy prices all around Europe ???
incredible!!! Really mind blowing!!! You can already see the trend in our economy. BIG changes coming and unfortunately so many do NOT see it coming! They will wish for the old days but life will have the potential of being soooo much better.
What all car oem´s forget is a disruption in the auto industry. Only Tesla understands this. Looking forward to hear what he has to say.
They didn't forget. They know now.
Check out aptera motors. Tesla is just a stepping stone.
@@osimmac jesus...
Fantastic work...we just have to deal with the civil unrest this disruption will bring. The benefits of cost savings will need to be diverted to those who will lose out because of these disruptions otherwise we all may fail to benefit.
Very true, David... Major collapse in established industries is good fodder for social unrest - possibly even civil war.
If the petroleum industry loses 80% of it's demand on a decade yep that will be a pretty big shake up for the employment market. Particularly because it is being replaced by something with a lot less labor required for production as well as all the distribution network and cargo transportation jobs.
It is going to be a pretty big bandaid to rip off.
The petroleum industry will survive as we still need materials and lubricants but yeah demand is going down big time if we stop burning their product.
I've continued applying Tony's ideas to technology news and noticed some surprising developments:
1. The EV/AV traffic transition is already here - in delivery drones. A few weeks ago, Walmart announced expansion from a test deployment to service in multiple US states serving 4 million customers. They expect to serve 1 million deliveries. A drop in the bucket relative to total vehicle miles, but that's still a lot of trips taken off the roads! Amazon has followed up by announcing its own testing zone, so the race to replace the last mile has truly started now.
2. The most cost-efficient use of a TaaS fleet is going to gravitate towards vehicles that fit exactly the capacities needed - so one or two people and a bag will be the most likely base unit, which makes ebike or scooter service an attractive starting point. Larger vehicles can exist for group travel or cargo, but the mindset of mass transit vs individual - of putting a crowd on a bus vs driving a mostly-empty car - is likely to shift in favor of these smaller vehicles in regions with mild weather(enclosed cabin variants are a small upgrade). And as luck would have it, those rentals already exist *today* through Bird, Spin, Lime, etc. These companies found a niche that let them rapidly iterate on their platforms, bootstrapping themselves from a dockless environment with humans employed to move around and charge the fleets, and some(like Spin) have already gotten to work on testing AV features. When it's possible to call a bike and have it arrive like a taxi, drive itself with minimal intervention(which may not even need a complete level 4 style system), and then finish your ride and have it return to a safe parking spot, the puzzle is nearly complete, and the last task necessary for TaaS to start gobbling market share is to lobby city officials into massive expansion of bike paths and charge docks.
By end of 2023 I expect it will become obvious what has happened as footage of transformed test markets starts to pop up. The groundwork is already here in cities which pushed forward their bike infrastructure during the pandemic lockdowns.
21:30 wonder about market/capital opportunities surrounding this. Very exciting to re-design cities for humans instead of the automobile.
BYD can make the safest electric battery for $95 / kWh. The LFP battery is not raw material constrained either. No cobalt, no nickel, no manganese.
What an extraordinary presentation! 'Shared it widely...
Thank you so much for your brilliant and positive work !
Thank you Tony, I have seen and have been across the Energy and Transportation technology disruptions and this exciting news where I have personally invested in solar and batteries however the Food disruption that has been mentioned is a eye opener. You went into some detail around protein specifically and also highlighting cost curves and they way this will disrupt the Food industry economically. The one question I have with food is it Healthy? Will it provide all the nutrients we need to be healthy? I am a big believer of you are what you eat and that a well maintain diet prevents other illnesses or medication. To me being healthy is far more important than a cost curve.
Yep, my concern also..........can it produced in a way that provides the nutrients that are indeed healthy to our bodies. Or is this just the next GMO food twist that is unhealthy due to intense processing.
Lab grown food is a ponzy scheme for Big Ag’s bank account
@@mozit6 Yes, it will be healthy. Healthier, in fact, than the hormone and intibiotic-ridden animal protein than most people consume now. You only need to make what is necessary. He uses beer as an example. Most people arfe prepared to drink beer, believing it to be brewed in a clean environment. Food standards authorities check this. Precision fermentation of proteins is no different. For further reading on why that it, I suggest Moo's Law by Jim Mellon. And perhsp pook up his investment vehicle, Agronomics. Just trying to be helpful.
@@jamesgreenwood6733 Thank you.........I'll check it out
How about health care itself. How much could that add to in the 250$ per month deal?
If a state development agency wanted to attract new business, cheap energy would be a powerful selling point in their recruitment.
Mr. Seba, I think you hurried up with saying that "outages are so last century". I understand that before this presentation you did not have to hear too much about blackouts, but already till then there were significant ones in Pakistan, Nigeria and Taiwan. Sure, you can say that the first two are developing nations and it possibly can happen, while Taiwan - not that much. Also, there were at least two blackouts in Germany this year (one in Dresden, media was silent on this one), and I believe we can expect more due to coal and gas shortages (probably due to cyberattacks and, possible, coronal mass ejections as well).
YES, and most important is the NUMBER of PEOPLE : ua-cam.com/video/Yclt9mzH0GI/v-deo.html
Excellent information. I love your work!
Unfortunately Gordon Johnson ruined the word ‘essentially’ for me.
Only 107k people have watched this. Really its something everyone in the world who either has a job, runs a business, has a pension fund or other investments, or plans to buy a car or house in the next 5 years should look at. Ie. everyone needs to know this.
Very insightful.
I sincerely hope that politicians / legislative take heed.
One thing I am concerned about is that the politicians in America are paid (donated) by the very same companies that will fight this tooth and nail.
24:14 Waymo lidar is done. Pure Vision has won out.
Agreed... It will be interesting to see if any "non-Tesla" FSD technologies will ever be viable.
That's not his focus. He doesn't care which version of AV wins, just the effects of AV robotaxis
Very interesting and exciting stuff! One of my concerns though is that needing 4 x solar and wind capacity to cover the days with no sun and no wind, is superpower still an economic proposition? I know that from a climate point of view it's a necessity but will the ongoing decrease in the cost of solar and wind make it inevitable? I really hope so.
As solar, wind, and batteries decrease in cost, superpower will become easier and more cost effective to generate, because batteries are the financial bottleneck to storing excess solar and wind generation created by the less expensive solar and wind sources. As all 3 start to cost less, superpower may be seen as even more beneficial to invest or overinvest in, so yes, probably inevitable
Those are precisely the two questions he has addressed - yes superpowers is the cheapest energy option and its inevitable.
Unfortunately the people that really need to listen to this won't.
33:00 Nearly firm sources still don't have the reliability of coal, nuclear, oil and gas... what is your prediction for the changing tide? So much fantastic information. I see in Alberta, Canada, the political will is to sustain and support O&G... our Premier, Daniel Smith, is always talking about protecting jobs - She slams the federal government for offering job training incentives into alternative tech and industries.
Around 40:00 you speak of the overproduction of "free energy". But if this overproduction may create abundance, it will send prices down to zero, killing any prospect of ROI! How do you make the energy system pay for itself with overproduction most of the time? Subsidies?
He google algorithm: I want this kind of stuff in my news feed immediately. Thank "you".
Completely and totally amazing. Thank you so much for the information!
I think you are wrong about the cattle prediction. You make a couple of incorrect assumptions.
1. The dietary value of meat is just protein:
It's much more than just proteins, the whole picture of which at the least will take 1 very dedicated year to reveal, and half a decade to reverse-engineer.
2. The alternative fermentation-based process can make matter out of thin air:
It cannot, and needs substrates like sugar and atomic substrates like phosphorous, carbon, nitrogen and hydrogen. This needs to be sourced from somewhere, and it's unclear how much more efficient (space and energy) an alternative process is compared to cattle.
I agree that his predictions about agriculture are wrong. I don’t think lab grown food can ever replace the nutritional value of organic animal foods.
The truth is plant monoculture has tons negative externalities and animal agriculture is the only disruptive technology that can reverse its damages
@@tlrlutz Indeed. Meat is partially expensive due to the manual labour involved. Will be interesting to see what AI will do in the cattle industry.
Mind-blowing as this analysis is, it's incomplete. Other exponentially-growing technologies, like robotics and AI, the blockchain, genomics and life extension will interact with these.
Reading between the lines, it seems that telemedicine, genomics, AI, and robotics will eliminate most doctors (and by extension, nearly all jobs). Things like Boxabl, robotics, and the opening up of land, combined with WFH, will drop housing costs by an order of magnitude. Online education will improve so much that most colleges disappear. The energy surplus will solve climate change and water shortages via carbon sequestration and desalination.
If a person's basic needs are only $250/month, and there are serious disruptions, sounds like UBI is coming, or else.
This is fantastic.I would like to see my region (Eastern Canada) move to these energy systems.
Can you include the forecast for battery raw materials this decade because plenty of sources site a supply shortage which will impact the renewable energy revolution.
Have you thought about presenting this information to The Mars Society?
So many critical issues with colonizing Mars, the moon, space stations, etc are addressed by these breakthroughs in energy, food production, etc.
Tony, we miss you! What are you currently working on, and when are you releasing a new video?
I am rewatching this one. A year later just as accurate as one year ago. No need for new updates.
Profound.
Truly visionary work. 🤯
Didn't anyone explain to Tony yet that cars / horseless carriages were in development for almost 70 years before his first photo in NYC? The disruption didn’t "happen" in 13 years, he cherry picked a very specific section of the S curve, and isn't even using data but just 2 photos. His point still stands, but the visualization carries less weight when you actually understand automotive and manufacturing history.
Also the adoption curve is related to the natural product lifecycle. E.g. people get a new cell phone every 2 years or so, people get a new car every 6 years or so and average vehicle age is 11 years old, with the late end of the curve being 20-25 years. Energy plants are designed for at least 30 year service life. These factors change the speed of adoption of any given product.
Tony's point on the transition from horses to cars (he showed a graph later in the presentation of the take rate) was that once its cheaper to own the alternative then its inevitable. EV are already at the tipping point whe looking at cost per mile life cycle and with battery costs dropping significantly over time the upfront vehicle cost will also be cheaper than gas vehicles.
I will touch on the adoption curve compared to life cycle comment too. If it's cheaper to currently build solar than maintain current systems (not life cycle costs, just maintaining existing power generation) then the life cycle of a power plant timeline is irrelevant. Your point does stand when viewed from regulatory requirements standpoint, existing contracts, power needs of a region, or the sheer amount of solar and battery which need to be produced and available before the transition happens.
Thank you
I mostly agree but the part of food production is chilling. Designer food under the control of a few companies is not the right way to go. Also there are some errors in the presentation: Grazing land for animals are up to 80% not suitable for growing crops and Tony also fails to mention how important animal fat is for the human body, he totally omits that fact.
Very, very, informative!
Cars cannot be used for home energy backup, or distributed grid storage, because they don't have direct access to the automatic grid disconnect system that separates the home from a grid fault.
Currently not, but very easy to fix if / when required.
This will change the way I invest in the stock market.
Beach traffic. How does Transportation as a Service (TaaS) deal with everyone wanting to go to the beach (or mountains for that matter) on the weekends in the summer? People are willing to pay for convenience, and they are willing to pay a lot for a nice day at the beach. Mathematical equations don't always fit with real world human wants and needs.
Public transportation, bus transit, is very affordable but often only lower income use it because they are willing to make the trade off of cost versus convenience. The same thing is going to happen with TaaS in that only those who can deal with inconvenience of TaaS will make use of the much lower costs.
Well I hope you're correct Tony. I think we should maintain the conventional capacity in case something happens that makes solar infrastructure unusable.
What scenarios are you imagining that would make solar solar infrastructure unusable?
@@beilkster if solar power production and storage are both decentralized from large distribution hubs, say homes with panels and storage and EV batteries spread across the country, solar power would be capable of being stored and traded in decentralized "grids" small enough to where people may not have much difficulty if a centralized micro grid can no longer provide people in an area with power, they'll just tap into home storage or EV storage for as long as they need to.
As for prolonged volcanic ash and solar flares, ash at those levels would be a super rare event that would cause much bigger problems than just reduced solar energy, and even then we would still have wind turbines and storage to get power from; and iirc, the earth's magnetic field protects us from most solar flare activity that could affect humanity, so breaching that protection would probably also be a rare event. We would also recover from that one fairly quickly, just restart or replace the affected inverters.
@@davidx.1504 my scenarios were difficult to come up with and I'm aware they are exceedingly rare occurrences. If anything it makes a stronger case for solar.
Electrical losses in transmission from generation to use in a house is about 10-15%. It's more cost effective if storage is close to the home. Decentralized storage from decentralized energy generation would compound the losses and not make sense.
Also in your scenario we would still need to maintain all power line infrastructure. My concern is if cities want to detach from others in the name of storage efficiency or cost reduction... I think they would regret it.
@@beilkster honestly, I see the argument to keep larger grid infrastructure and wiring in place. I was really looking for arguments against the reliability of solar because it seems like such an easy and effective solution for much of our energy problems save for the (relatively) large land usage required with panel installation.
But yeah, it'd be a bit foolish to remove the old grid infrastructure in case excess power needs to be transferred to regions with less. It could at some point be feasible for cities to be good enough solar power generators to not need the wires, but they should still keep them in case catastrophe strikes
Is solar carrington event resilient?
Great video and amazing insight. It’s great that with or without government support, innovation will prevail. Just one question, what would be your recommendation for a stock investment in the precision fermentation industry? Thanks again !
Ginkgo Bioworks seems to have an aligned and scalable vision. It should be huge in 5 years if they can execute.
When listening to Tony talking about the protein industry taking over the entire dairy industry easily and how our vast majority of food come from a handful of animals and specific plants but will easily be taken over via the yeast fermentation process and how it can more cost effectively produce the equivalent output at a fraction of the cost and land footprint....all it screams is "great reset" and how the people will be forced financially to adopt the "new food source" because traditional means will be too cost prohibitive. Its unfortunate.
This makes me so optimistic
This is profound!
Every major oil company has sold off their gas stations to local franchisees/other companies over the past 15 years, why? They know. They know the disruption is coming.
Very exciting :)
hi Tony it would be great to hear from you again.. its been almost a year. can't wait for your next talk. I love your work
I just wonder where all that lithium needed to produce batteries to hold all that energy will come from since it's already starting to run out on the market and prices are skyrocketing.
Very interesting about the dairy industry. Do you think we will produce cow milk, or will we switch to human milk instead?
I think producers will be able to make thousands of types of milk. We can make Blue Whale milk or Rhino milk or even human milk. Food as a software can allow people to design all sorts of new things and make totally new types of food.
@@riley_oneill Yes, perhaps in doing so we will find out that what is good for a developing baby might not be at all healthy for an adult. Utilization of some content may be inadequately absorbed and therefore deposited in places where it does not belong; i.e. calcium for example etc. The notion of whale milk and rhino milk may prove to present many new unforeseen health issues in humans that cows milk has not caused (that we currently know of).
@@KyBrancaccio I don't know if I will be drinking it but I could see someone making it and then engineering it to be human compatible.
Likewise, I would not be surprised if someone figures how to make cultured Condor and elephant meat. If it is possible someone will pull it off.
Really I think entirely new forms of protein will be developed. Like some sort of human chow type thing. Something that tastes like chocolate milk but is engineered to be 100% of every nutrient (and in their right proportions) that a human needs.
Human milk is only healthy if you are younger than 12 months old. Interestingly, the same is true of all other natural milks. Cows milk is only really healthy for young calves. No milk - even Martian milk - is healthy for adults, or kids over the age of 1 or at most 2 years. Don't believe either the dairy industry, or governments - milk is NOT a "healthy" food source.
True... we make many tasty products from milk - but being tasty does not mean they are healthy.
@@brunosmith6925 True….But at least we could make human milk and use it as baby formula?
I think all privately owned AVs should be covered by Right to Repair laws, so that any private car owner can fix their AV if they decide they want to keep their autonomy.
I also think AV fleet managers should incentivize private AV owners to add private AVs to their fleet when private owners don't need them; maybe give the private owner some $ for every mile their car is driven as part of the AV fleet
It would be a lot easier to remove the middle man (private AV ownership) and just standardize and own your own rented vehicle. Economically and logistically it makes sense for a business to own its own fleet.
@@beilkster it also makes it easier for companies to control people's activities when traveling too. I'm not into a society where companies have an outsized ownership over commonly and widely used property, because that means they get to control what everyone does with it whether it makes sense or not, often in order to squeeze profits from people.
Let's not give up property ownership for the sake of consumer and company convenience and supposed economic benefits for consumers. Many apartment renters subject to the whims of landlords can tell you why ownership is often better
@@davidx.1504 hi David. Didn't realize I commented on 2 of your comments.
I also don't like giving corporations the ability to control how I live my life. I was just pointing out that it might not be up to us. The companies that own their own fleets will likely be more profitable than those who rent vehicles from others (not to mention additional inconveniences). I'm not sure the majority of society would pay extra for the same service
@@beilkster I think society would only pay extra if they failed to understand the risks of paying for convenience and giving up the right to own their own property.
The elites are already planning for this, and they aren't even trying to hide it because apparently no one is paying attention to it. They call it the Great Reset, where we own nothing, left to the whims of whoever owns the things we use every day as we forget the independence borne of property ownership. People need to shout about it from the rooftops
It sounds like roll of regulators is to help dampen the amplitude of the market trauma after the rupture point - but they can't stop the overall trend once the market decides on a path forward.
What about AI? What industries will be disrupted the most?
Thank you !
Does anyone know any good lab meat companies to invest in? They all seem to be private bar agronomics.
Beyond meat is the only one I know
Actually WWI helped the switch to cars from horses because millions of horses and mules were killed in the war.
I love Tony's thinking here, but given the recent example of Germany reverting to coal during the current crisis and their newly built renewable energy system failing spectacularly to meet demand I think we will have to accept that the energy disruption won't be as simple as laid out here. Storage technology needs to advance past Li-ion batteries due to materials supply issues (and there is fascinating progress being made but it's not yet proven at scale) and in places like northern Europe where solar is too unreliable and reliable wind is not well distributed there will have to be another solution, most likely some combo of nuclear plus currently developing tech such as deep geothermal.
Tesla is still so so underrated!!! 🚀💥
brave new world is here..scary stuff. life will certainly be disruptive
Hello Tony, can you please comment on Hydrogen vehicles?
Tony will say waste of time, expensive fuel cost with little upside in known future, and cost of building new infra struture while keeping low efficiency ice engines. Ships maybee?
We,re heading into a massive digital change very ,very fast
It has not taken into account the latest power disruptions such as MCHA, which provides constant and continuous power without batteries. and others that are more advanced but are not well known.