Only God knows how much grateful i am. After so much struggles I now own a new house and my family is happy once again everything is finally falling into place!
Hey, I invested largely on stock market last year, tried some index but my experience doesn't pay me. I have lost so much trading by myself Please is there any handle or link can get to her?
I cannot believe the US Govt is going to borrow $12,000+ Per US Worker from July to December. I feel like i am in 1921 Germany. This will spiral out of control. Doug W
Luke is the best. I really love his analysis. Unfortunately, right now, we are in a confidence cycle. Once the herd figures out there's no there there, we go down and people run for the hills.
Just needs to add- The whole system is beyond corrupt, ZERO free Markets, Steal from the middle class and poor to save the rich. NO consequences for bad and criminal decisions at the top
you'd have to be blind to not to see the deterioration of the economic situation. there feels like something more sinister going on in our markets. the reaction to bad news is virtually non existent this year.
@@giantessmaria Ther has been NO repercussions forbade decisions and. Ad investments in over a decade. In 2018 new home builders were cratering, existing homes were falling and equities fell off a cliff in December that year. 2019 saw lowering of rates again, stopped bleeding off the balance sheet, several yeild curve inversions and on Sept 17th 2019, the REPO market blew up and they opened 17 trillion in credit lines and still never repaired it. All the people that made horrible decisions were bailed out in 2020 to 2022 whe. They printed 8 TRILLION into the economy while 20 million households got moratoriums on rents and mortgages, no student loan payments since, massive tax credits to businesses STILL to this DAY as mostly FRAUD. You could make the dumbest most corrupt decisions in history and they bailed everyone out! > Now we will finish that 2018 cycle heading into a severe recession, but who knows, maybe they will inject 12 to 20 trillion this time. Lol
I listen to every video from Luke. Please ask him to address the milkshake thing. His interactions with Brett are pure gold for a student like me. Thank you in advance.
In the past when the dollar came under threat they would raise rates and blow up developing countries - you don't have to outrun the bear, you just have to outrun your buddy But if we have a global credit event while people are already moving away from the US dollar, then each "buddy" the bear takes down will make him bigger and meaner and faster
What an excellent interview !! Luke having great insights which are new to me and A’dam asking the right questions he preparered very well in advance of this interview. This interview helps me very good selecting the right assetclasses to build a good retirement. Looking forward to part 2. Bert.
What you realise is the low bar for financial pundits. They get it very wrong and move on and still pull down a good $. Try that if you are a pilot, surgeon, engineer etc...
Definitely have Luck back again. He is Very insightful and informative. I have to listen to some segments over again to understand Luck. Please ask him to explain some of his thoughts more in details. That would be helpful. Thanks Adam! You are a great interviewer and have great guests. Love your channel❤!
The government has really called things more difficult for its citizens, and we can't sit back and bear all the consequences of the bad governance. It's obvious we are headed for hyperinflation,it is always the poor who take the hit.
It's no longer a story that the world is experiencing a global economic downturn, I'm so happy that I've been receiving $64,000 from my $15,000 investment every 8 days
@bodysabry4260The crypto market is highly profitable with an expert broker just like Mrs Laura Jennifer Reeves. I got recommended to her, and since then, my financial life has been a success.
I have also been trading with her, The profits are secured and over a 100% return on investment directly sent to your wallet. I made up to $560,000 in months trading with her.
Yup - I switch on UA-cam and I hear nothing but, "everything's falling apart". Then I look at my screen, and everything just keeps going up. . . . . . .
@@incurableromantic4006 Same here. Now tomorrow morning our Indian markets will zoom up - classic blind leading the blind scenario. Another sleepless night awaits. LoL.
I'd really like to know if Luke would recommend owning oil stocks right now. He talks everything oil, etc. but he doesn't actually state that owning oil & gas stocks is a good long term trade. I'm waiting for that discussion, and surprised it hasn't happened yet. It seems like a perfectly natural question for you to ask in this setting. Hopefully gets answered in the next interview.
In the meantime markets are breaking out again and Tom Lee is pounding his chest every day on CNBC. Adam you interviewed dozens of people, but only very few have been right so far.
Been watching all the gurus -- George's white boards, Jeff, Lynn, Brent, et al --and I understand just enough to be THOROUGHLY CONFUSED. Adam, you're GREAT at explaining back to your guests what they say. Your mission, should you decide to accept it, is to start a series on basic macro concepts for us dopes. Help us, Obi-Wan Kenobi, you're our only hope!
Better pray there is no liquidity crisis. Skyrocketing personal debt and cratering savings rates and the unemployment hasnt even popped yet. This is another asset class where both sides make valid points and - really - no one has any idea which way its going to break.
Not all stocks. E.g. high-dividend-paying stocks tend to get hammered like fixed-rate bonds in inflationary environments. If they lose control of the inflation, all stocks will be hammered secondary to an economic or financial collapse.
Exactly lol they literally ask him at like 43:30 how high does he see rates going? And he just blah blahs irrelevant garbage for 5 minutes and never answers the question. The bottom could quite literally already be in for bonds
Good interview, and Luke says many things that make sense, but ... @40:00 Luke states that "the weakening (beatings) of dollar will continue until the treasury gets better ..." but fails to state "relative to what?"; also, does this have an impact on currency exchanges or ETFs such as the DXY? How does this impact the markets (stocks and bonds separately) ... or did he later say generally get into stocks and out of bonds?
The whole running wartime deficits in a peacetime economy is only bizarre if you think like the average person. But once you realize we spent 60 billion dollars on Ukraine in just one year but 159 billion on Afghanistan in 2 decades, it makes sense where all the money went. At this point, Ukraine just has to be annexed and become our 51st state with the money we invested.
Looks like you’re having problems with math and logical thinking… US government deficit spends almost $2 trillion a year, yet it is Ukraine’s fault because it received “$60 billion”worth of military equipment and weapons - that were produced decades ago and would expire as waste if not used - to defend itself and prevent Russian invasion of NATO countries in Europe (would cost us trillions of dollars and hundreds of thousands American lives).
Something I didn’t follow, the long duration bonds folks are primarily banking on a predictive QE/stimulus in response to a more than ordinary recessionary unwind (China, credit event, etc.). Under a recession prices (oil included) stop rising to trend without inflation pressure or even deflate if it’s quite bad, under those circumstances those bond price appreciation would still occur but of course if you’re going to hold those bonds at current rates for many many years while if higher than trend inflation is occurring you won’t do so well. I guess it’s a matter of time frame in which case I don’t think any who are buying for that price appreciation from QE are going to hold for many years down the line anyway.
I guess the boiled down question is, does the marked crash first and bonds up and oil down, or does the US go bankrupt first so oil up bonds down. Is that what you see?
Luke pretty much summed up my last four or five posted comments over the last 10 days. However, I think he said stocks are going higher and I completely disagree with him on that point with the exception of commodity producers. The release valve will be PM not the QQQ. In the end the New Harbour guys are going to get the bear market in stocks and Luke is going to get the inflation and bear market in bonds. Put it together and it will be very bad stagflation.
These are exactly the things I've been saying for last 5 years. And everyone thinks I'm being hyperbolic. It's time for Americans 2 Face Reality and take care of themselves and stop worrying about other countries
rather than US Treasuries in a stickier for longer inflation environment, investors will fly into blue chips able to grow EPS and FCF above inflation rates in any kind of economic environment...
There are less than 10 stocks that are floating the entire market. I hate to use this analogy but: In this case "the rising AI tide is floating all boats.” But not for long. Key word to listen for is: capitulation, its up to you to figure out why.
Luke does an excellent job in explaining Herbert Simon's truism that if something cannot go on forever, it will end. The Fed is walking a narrowing cliff with one side crashing the credit markets and the other trashing the currency. It will probably end up doing both.
Can anyone explain why the DOW JONES is having another fricking PARTY today? If things are so "toxic" why is the market soaring AGAIN? In cash currently hence the annoyance.
great stuff as always! thanks! guess the only question i have is; why can't the market see any of this coming? This disconnect from reality has really gotten quite mind boggling and almost makes me feel like the market has gone full on ponzi-casino.
Luke's analogy of picking up nickels in front of a steamroller makes sense. But as a visual, it doesn't reflect strongly enough the risk he sees in long duration bonds. He really needs to reference the naked gun scene where the steam roller actually overtakes the individual!
Wait!!! So FED is going to be forced to ease and drop interest rates, yet Luke insists investors holding long term government bonds are going to be hurt in that environment???? I don't understand!!! This channel has been promoting Long Term bond investment for exactly that scenario. What am I missing??
long term, fixed gov bonds yes because there fixed. US treasuries better than anything else, best of bad bunch when it goes wrong but still poor. no real, great investment i’d suggest actually bar cash
I would say a majority of the speakers are pro bond, but I wouldn't say the channel has been exclusively pro bond. Every weekend Lance R has been talking about how we're in a bull market
Isn't it that he thinks only short end falls ? Long yields to rise because of all the US government bond issuance to fund the massive and growing government deficit.
Adam, I am looking forward to listening to the second video during my swim in the morning. At 32:19, when Luke says it is a trade speaking about long-dated bonds versus energy. I agree. I wonder if the structure is to take both sides of that trade. Ride the bond up with the QE letting go once we see inflation taking hold. And holding the energy positions the entire time. Perhaps you can discuss that with Lance on Friday? I seem to remember Lance saying he is increasing his position of TLT and even longer-dated vehicles.
Of course, there will be a crisis. Spending must go down and taxes must go up. This is the problem with democracies and fiat money. We've created 80% of all the money in America in the last 22 years. Prices are spiking, the CPI is a hoax and so is GDP. GDP includes government spending which isn't exactly "product". Debt and interest costs matter.
Wow. Treasury receipts down 20% year over year. I can only surmise This is a direct result of the GOP $2t tax cut for the rich. Prior to that Corporations made up 23-23% of tax receipts, now it’s down to less than 7. No wonder there is no money for SS and other benefit programs that so many Americans rely on. By some accounts, the CEO comp to worker pay in 2021 was 400 x avg wage. Compared to the 1950s when it I was 20x. This is why more and more people are dropping out of the job market and turning to bartering and side hustles just to feed their families while the 1% enjoy 90% of the wealth with virtually no taxes. And with the 2T tax cut for the wealthy, they don’t even have to pay taxes. This level of disparity between the haves and the have nots has destroyed the middle class. No wonder people are upset.
Again I ask, (but ignored), why doesn't Luke consider that the US can lift sanctions from the super big oil resource countries like Iran, Venezuela, etc.? They can and that would allow lots more oil onto the market.
Although I understand Mr Gromens position there are a few questions I would have like to have been asked (45 minutes in and they haven't been) Japan has a very high debt to GDP ratio so if they can manage why can't the USA? Modern Economic Theory says an economy can function with very high levels of debt, what is their take on this and why are they wrong? Is there a way in which a CBDC could wipe away all this debt and begin again with a "great reset"? I'm not so wet behind the ears I don't have an idea of these, but they are questions I would have liked to have heard answered by an expert
Two comments here on oil and long duration Treasury bonds 1. Oil are other commodities are sideshow - I don’t quite understand it’s centrality to Luke’s overall thesis. He seems to think prices will move higher on the basis of supply limitations, even in the setting of a global downturn. Demand destruction will far more powerfully bring oil prices down than diminished supply - as was seen during Covid. Also, productivity gains in developed economies require less and less oil to produce $1 of GDP as the decades go on. The shift away from fossil fuels to nuclear/renewables will also sideline oil further in the future. It just is not nearly as important to economic growth as it was in the 1970s. High oil prices are also not sustainable as they destroy economic demand and cause lower oil prices. 2. Long duration bonds. In my view, Luke’s very big picture view is correct. Debt, demographics and deglobalization will lead to higher prices / higher structural inflation / higher bond yields. That said, the 10Y Treasury is still a haven asset in the near term. When the widely forecasted credit crunch / economic contraction that the yield curve and LEI index is signaling arrives, these bonds will be strongly bid. This is not a long term investment, but a high probability play for the next 12 months to make a substantial profit for little risk (while clipping coupons along the way). At that point, in a structurally higher inflation world, I’d want to dump Treasuries and hold US stocks for the inflation protection and growth potential off a lower base…
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Only God knows how much grateful i am. After so much struggles I now own a new house and my family is happy once again everything is finally falling into place!
Thank you Jesus, $32,000 weekly profits Our Lord Jesus have lifted up my Life.
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Hey, I invested largely on stock market last year, tried some index but my experience doesn't pay me. I have lost so much trading by myself Please is there any handle or link can get to her?
Oh yeah sure, she's active on What's APK
+1
I cannot believe the US Govt is going to borrow $12,000+ Per US Worker from July to December. I feel like i am in 1921 Germany. This will spiral out of control.
Doug W
Steal from the poor and middle class to bail outbtye rich. No consequences for the top asset bubble riders and bad decisions
Luke is the best. I really love his analysis. Unfortunately, right now, we are in a confidence cycle. Once the herd figures out there's no there there, we go down and people run for the hills.
Just needs to add- The whole system is beyond corrupt, ZERO free Markets, Steal from the middle class and poor to save the rich. NO consequences for bad and criminal decisions at the top
Yeah I think something needs to break to change the mind of the herd. Could take some time, ATM every dip is seen as an opportunity
Sure if you like corporate propaganda!
you'd have to be blind to not to see the deterioration of the economic situation. there feels like something more sinister going on in our markets. the reaction to bad news is virtually non existent this year.
@@giantessmaria Ther has been NO repercussions forbade decisions and. Ad investments in over a decade. In 2018 new home builders were cratering, existing homes were falling and equities fell off a cliff in December that year. 2019 saw lowering of rates again, stopped bleeding off the balance sheet, several yeild curve inversions and on Sept 17th 2019, the REPO market blew up and they opened 17 trillion in credit lines and still never repaired it. All the people that made horrible decisions were bailed out in 2020 to 2022 whe. They printed 8 TRILLION into the economy while 20 million households got moratoriums on rents and mortgages, no student loan payments since, massive tax credits to businesses STILL to this DAY as mostly FRAUD.
You could make the dumbest most corrupt decisions in history and they bailed everyone out! > Now we will finish that 2018 cycle heading into a severe recession, but who knows, maybe they will inject 12 to 20 trillion this time. Lol
Luke is absolutely brilliant,just like every other guest on this program.only problem is they have been totally wrong.
I listen to every video from Luke. Please ask him to address the milkshake thing. His interactions with Brett are pure gold for a student like me. Thank you in advance.
Great question.
In the past when the dollar came under threat they would raise rates and blow up developing countries - you don't have to outrun the bear, you just have to outrun your buddy
But if we have a global credit event while people are already moving away from the US dollar, then each "buddy" the bear takes down will make him bigger and meaner and faster
Me too.
Yes, Luke overpowers Brent all the time
@@draymond5067How?
Thanks for clarifying Gromen’s opinion. Taggart is indeed a superb interviewer.
Luke, the " Super Truth Man" is fantastic.
Luke says a lot of things without explaining them - Adam did a good job trying to push back and get him to
Luke, when he takes the time to clearly explain all the details to us laymen is masterful....... and freightening. Great interview.
What an excellent interview !! Luke having great insights which are new to me and A’dam asking the right questions he preparered very well in advance of this interview. This interview helps me very good selecting the right assetclasses to build a good retirement. Looking forward to part 2. Bert.
What you realise is the low bar for financial pundits. They get it very wrong and move on and still pull down a good $. Try that if you are a pilot, surgeon, engineer etc...
Definitely have Luck back again. He is Very insightful and informative. I have to listen to some segments over again to understand Luck. Please ask him to explain some of his thoughts more in details. That would be helpful. Thanks Adam! You are a great interviewer and have great guests. Love your channel❤!
I love interviews with Luke. straight answers
The government has really called things more difficult for its citizens, and we can't sit back and bear all the consequences of the bad governance. It's obvious we are headed for hyperinflation,it is always the poor who take the hit.
It's no longer a story that the world is experiencing a global economic downturn, I'm so happy that I've been receiving $64,000 from my $15,000 investment every 8 days
@bodysabry4260The crypto market is highly profitable with an expert broker just like Mrs Laura Jennifer Reeves. I got recommended to her, and since then, my financial life has been a success.
Since I started my investment of $7,000 with Mrs Laura, I am now having $29,450 in my portfolio.
I have also been trading with her, The profits are secured and over a 100% return on investment directly sent to your wallet. I made up to $560,000 in months trading with her.
I just searched about her on Google and yes, she's won my heart. She just gained herself a new client
Thanks guys!
Great interview!
Thanks for having Luke on!
It is so surreal to listen to this while right now the US markets are more than a % higher and rising.
Yup - I switch on UA-cam and I hear nothing but, "everything's falling apart". Then I look at my screen, and everything just keeps going up. . . . . . .
@@incurableromantic4006 Same here. Now tomorrow morning our Indian markets will zoom up - classic blind leading the blind scenario. Another sleepless night awaits. LoL.
I just posted almost the same comment. What's up if there is so much so called "danger" out there. I am sick and tired of waiting.
@@incurableromantic4006
And what exactly is going up or is at all time high ?
Get in line! I've been waiting for the collapse since 1971.
Luke Gromen in a long format interview ---- absolutely your best guest!
I'd really like to know if Luke would recommend owning oil stocks right now. He talks everything oil, etc. but he doesn't actually state that owning oil & gas stocks is a good long term trade. I'm waiting for that discussion, and surprised it hasn't happened yet. It seems like a perfectly natural question for you to ask in this setting. Hopefully gets answered in the next interview.
Great show as usual with Luke .
Fwiw imo loading up on bonds and gold is the way to go .
U get paid vs the 2 biggest risk .
First time I've seen one of your interviews with Luke. He really is very good, can't wait to see part 2.
this is just fantastic- thank you
Nothing. Ever. Happens.
In the meantime markets are breaking out again and Tom Lee is pounding his chest every day on CNBC.
Adam you interviewed dozens of people, but only very few have been right so far.
Been watching all the gurus -- George's white boards, Jeff, Lynn, Brent, et al --and I understand just enough to be THOROUGHLY CONFUSED.
Adam, you're GREAT at explaining back to your guests what they say.
Your mission, should you decide to accept it, is to start a series on basic macro concepts for us dopes.
Help us, Obi-Wan Kenobi, you're our only hope!
I am interested to hear what Lance and the New Harbor guys think about Luke's perspective on long-term bonds.
Me to!
Me to!@@thomaskelly6472
43:20 yup. This is why I'm out of bonds. The yield is a trap. Stocks are scary, sure, but inflation protected vs bonds.
Better pray there is no liquidity crisis. Skyrocketing personal debt and cratering savings rates and the unemployment hasnt even popped yet. This is another asset class where both sides make valid points and - really - no one has any idea which way its going to break.
Not all stocks.
E.g. high-dividend-paying stocks tend to get hammered like fixed-rate bonds in inflationary environments.
If they lose control of the inflation, all stocks will be hammered secondary to an economic or financial collapse.
Don’t know and don’t care if he’s right. I just love listening to Luke. He’s just so thoughtful
What Luke says is logical, but Mr. Market wipes his rear end with logic. Thanks for the interview.
Agreed. The forces are enormous and unstoppable.
If yields go where Luke thinks then we won't have an economy.
Exactly lol they literally ask him at like 43:30 how high does he see rates going? And he just blah blahs irrelevant garbage for 5 minutes and never answers the question. The bottom could quite literally already be in for bonds
Good interview, and Luke says many things that make sense, but ...
@40:00 Luke states that "the weakening (beatings) of dollar will continue until the treasury gets better ..." but fails to state "relative to what?"; also, does this have an impact on currency exchanges or ETFs such as the DXY?
How does this impact the markets (stocks and bonds separately) ... or did he later say generally get into stocks and out of bonds?
Lol, I have the exact same number of tabs open on my computer.
Thank you so much for a really great interview... valuable information
Awesome interview
I've gone into a trance looking at all of those open tabs
The whole running wartime deficits in a peacetime economy is only bizarre if you think like the average person. But once you realize we spent 60 billion dollars on Ukraine in just one year but 159 billion on Afghanistan in 2 decades, it makes sense where all the money went. At this point, Ukraine just has to be annexed and become our 51st state with the money we invested.
Yeah, I had a similar reaction. It IS a wartime economy, hence the wartime deficits.
Looks like you’re having problems with math and logical thinking…
US government deficit spends almost $2 trillion a year, yet it is Ukraine’s fault because it received “$60 billion”worth of military equipment and weapons - that were produced decades ago and would expire as waste if not used - to defend itself and prevent Russian invasion of NATO countries in Europe (would cost us trillions of dollars and hundreds of thousands American lives).
It's not exactly a peace time economy with the huge military budget which is untouchable whenever there are discussions to bring down the debt.
Something I didn’t follow, the long duration bonds folks are primarily banking on a predictive QE/stimulus in response to a more than ordinary recessionary unwind (China, credit event, etc.).
Under a recession prices (oil included) stop rising to trend without inflation pressure or even deflate if it’s quite bad, under those circumstances those bond price appreciation would still occur but of course if you’re going to hold those bonds at current rates for many many years while if higher than trend inflation is occurring you won’t do so well.
I guess it’s a matter of time frame in which case I don’t think any who are buying for that price appreciation from QE are going to hold for many years down the line anyway.
I guess the boiled down question is, does the marked crash first and bonds up and oil down, or does the US go bankrupt first so oil up bonds down. Is that what you see?
@@hill2750The market will definitely crash first IMHO. That's also what Dr Lacy Hunt says.
Thank you Adam. Best show on You Tube
Oil is the new gold, and Bitcoin is the new peso!
😂
Excellent report 👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍😊
"Eat dog food". I remember the ALPO ad with a man putting their meat balls on his pasta. Madison Ave. here's your chance.
Luke pretty much summed up my last four or five posted comments over the last 10 days. However, I think he said stocks are going higher and I completely disagree with him on that point with the exception of commodity producers. The release valve will be PM not the QQQ. In the end the New Harbour guys are going to get the bear market in stocks and Luke is going to get the inflation and bear market in bonds. Put it together and it will be very bad stagflation.
Adam asks. Luke talks. I listen - hard.
Adam is looking like he needs a drink.... make that a bottle....
Thanks a mill boys🙏🏻
I used to believe the price of oil was going much higher too until I watched your interview with Art Berman.
Listening to you guys makes my scalp tickle...
These are exactly the things I've been saying for last 5 years. And everyone thinks I'm being hyperbolic. It's time for Americans 2 Face Reality and take care of themselves and stop worrying about other countries
rather than US Treasuries in a stickier for longer inflation environment, investors will fly into blue chips able to grow EPS and FCF above inflation rates in any kind of economic environment...
Luke Gromen said in the last 12 months that FED will pivot soon. He was wrong for 12 months.
You should get Eric Nuttal on your show. He is an energy expert. You won't be disappointed
Thank you. I'll check him out. 👍
Outstanding interview! As usual.
Great stuff!
Pls ask Lance his take on Luke's bond forecast since Lance just made a significant personal commitment to LT bonds.
As he should lol lt bonds are paying great yields now theres literally no reason not to buy them
The shale patch is not rolling over. The super majors are in and standardizing best practices. Production is increasing, not decreasing.
Superb but frightening.
Why can’t government in general be cut?
Very important interview.
There are less than 10 stocks that are floating the entire market. I hate to use this analogy but: In this case "the rising AI tide is floating all boats.” But not for long. Key word to listen for is: capitulation, its up to you to figure out why.
Luke does an excellent job in explaining Herbert Simon's truism that if something cannot go on forever, it will end. The Fed is walking a narrowing cliff with one side crashing the credit markets and the other trashing the currency. It will probably end up doing both.
Yes, I misremembered - thanks. Should have looked it up to confirm.
Can anyone explain why the DOW JONES is having another fricking PARTY today? If things are so "toxic" why is the market soaring AGAIN? In cash currently hence the annoyance.
Declining volume?
Luke Gromen sounds like Peter Schiff talking to a Tucker Carlson audience. Very animated and entertaining.
That was so funny, wearing a crackerjack on a string LOL.
great stuff as always! thanks!
guess the only question i have is; why can't the market see any of this coming? This disconnect from reality has really gotten quite mind boggling and almost makes me feel like the market has gone full on ponzi-casino.
Luke's analogy of picking up nickels in front of a steamroller makes sense. But as a visual, it doesn't reflect strongly enough the risk he sees in long duration bonds. He really needs to reference the naked gun scene where the steam roller actually overtakes the individual!
They’ve been using that analogy for three years. Where is the steam roller?
between the fed and the treasury it feels like the system is collapsing and they just get more and more desperate every year.
😂
Yep honestly it would be awesome if it would just collapse already
Wait!!! So FED is going to be forced to ease and drop interest rates, yet Luke insists investors holding long term government bonds are going to be hurt in that environment???? I don't understand!!! This channel has been promoting Long Term bond investment for exactly that scenario. What am I missing??
This interview is a pure bs and fear mongering. Just ignore and dismiss. Nothing is going to happen like he described and the sky is not going to fall
long term, fixed gov bonds yes because there fixed. US treasuries better than anything else, best of bad bunch when it goes wrong but still poor. no real, great investment i’d suggest actually bar cash
I would say a majority of the speakers are pro bond, but I wouldn't say the channel has been exclusively pro bond. Every weekend Lance R has been talking about how we're in a bull market
Isn't it that he thinks only short end falls ? Long yields to rise because of all the US government bond issuance to fund the massive and growing government deficit.
What will happen to inflation, if the Fed “drops” interest rates?
(A rise in the inflation rate => bond prices drop)
Don't forget. Student loan repayments restart in October.
Awesome interview!
What a worse move? A. SPR release or B. Freezing Russias FX?
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still watching this very informative content cheers Frank ❤
Adam, I am looking forward to listening to the second video during my swim in the morning.
At 32:19, when Luke says it is a trade speaking about long-dated bonds versus energy. I agree.
I wonder if the structure is to take both sides of that trade. Ride the bond up with the QE letting go once we see inflation taking hold. And holding the energy positions the entire time.
Perhaps you can discuss that with Lance on Friday?
I seem to remember Lance saying he is increasing his position of TLT and even longer-dated vehicles.
This gentleman has some of the best one liners I've ever heard in finance! 😂
This is one of Luke's better interviews...
It's all about being a good strong speaker
one question- will we see the +$1000 gold day Kevin Muir has called for, within a year?
No.
Probably.
Sooo fuegooo!
Excellent!
Of course, there will be a crisis. Spending must go down and taxes must go up. This is the problem with democracies and fiat money. We've created 80% of all the money in America in the last 22 years. Prices are spiking, the CPI is a hoax and so is GDP. GDP includes government spending which isn't exactly "product". Debt and interest costs matter.
Great interview
Always enjoy your videos!
Wow. Treasury receipts down 20% year over year. I can only surmise This is a direct result of the GOP $2t tax cut for the rich. Prior to that Corporations made up 23-23% of tax receipts, now it’s down to less than 7. No wonder there is no money for SS and other benefit programs that so many Americans rely on. By some accounts, the CEO comp to worker pay in 2021 was 400 x avg wage. Compared to the 1950s when it I was 20x. This is why more and more people are dropping out of the job market and turning to bartering and side hustles just to feed their families while the 1% enjoy 90% of the wealth with virtually no taxes. And with the 2T tax cut for the wealthy, they don’t even have to pay taxes. This level of disparity between the haves and the have nots has destroyed the middle class. No wonder people are upset.
Wont the government force someone to by the UST? Change the rules to make the big banks buy, incentivize or twist arms of pensions or 401ks?
No mention of OPEC outside of Russia and their ability to increase oil supply
US shale is only 8% of global energy production... where are you getting the 90% or am I just hearing things?
Nice cliffhanger 😬
You forgot to mention option 3 Reduce the population and that reduces entitlements. Sadly I think option 3 has been played
Again I ask, (but ignored), why doesn't Luke consider that the US can lift sanctions from the super big oil resource countries like Iran, Venezuela, etc.? They can and that would allow lots more oil onto the market.
Stealth invasion and removal of the current Venezuela dictator => oil problem solved
Wow Adam how can you deal with so many open windows ?
Thanks!
Thank you very much!!
Although I understand Mr Gromens position there are a few questions I would have like to have been asked (45 minutes in and they haven't been)
Japan has a very high debt to GDP ratio so if they can manage why can't the USA?
Modern Economic Theory says an economy can function with very high levels of debt, what is their take on this and why are they wrong?
Is there a way in which a CBDC could wipe away all this debt and begin again with a "great reset"?
I'm not so wet behind the ears I don't have an idea of these, but they are questions I would have liked to have heard answered by an expert
I thought my tab management was out of hand, then I saw this screen share.
Undesireable consequences...we have met the enemy...and it is our current leadership. UFB
Two comments here on oil and long duration Treasury bonds
1. Oil are other commodities are sideshow - I don’t quite understand it’s centrality to Luke’s overall thesis. He seems to think prices will move higher on the basis of supply limitations, even in the setting of a global downturn. Demand destruction will far more powerfully bring oil prices down than diminished supply - as was seen during Covid. Also, productivity gains in developed economies require less and less oil to produce $1 of GDP as the decades go on. The shift away from fossil fuels to nuclear/renewables will also sideline oil further in the future. It just is not nearly as important to economic growth as it was in the 1970s. High oil prices are also not sustainable as they destroy economic demand and cause lower oil prices.
2. Long duration bonds. In my view, Luke’s very big picture view is correct. Debt, demographics and deglobalization will lead to higher prices / higher structural inflation / higher bond yields. That said, the 10Y Treasury is still a haven asset in the near term. When the widely forecasted credit crunch / economic contraction that the yield curve and LEI index is signaling arrives, these bonds will be strongly bid. This is not a long term investment, but a high probability play for the next 12 months to make a substantial profit for little risk (while clipping coupons along the way). At that point, in a structurally higher inflation world, I’d want to dump Treasuries and hold US stocks for the inflation protection and growth potential off a lower base…
Wow and I thought I had a lot of tabs up haha
like many have said, investing is not about what you want to happen
I must have missed the part about how/when the US Treasury is going to repay the $1.9T that they are planning to borrow.
“Non linear”
Show me where anything in markets went up in a linear fashion.
I will wait….
Adam 'sorry to interrupt' Taggart.
Thank you very much...